...STUCKTRADER...Learning How NOT to Trade...

Hopefully you bought those options i suggested.

2010-11-15T10:11:00.003-10:00

Anyway, i will be honest... i am just trying to pay down all my debt... but another play that has come to my attention all based on the hypothesis that the iPhone will end it's exclusivity with AT&T...

AT&T(T) option puts... 2012...

3 things going for this trade:
1. VZ is a matter of when not if...
2. Apple will not allow Androids to dominate the U.S.
3. Even if AT&T does ok after the iPhone leaves... you still have the overall market that can spiral downward...

Anyway, if i free up some $... that's what i will do.

If you got in on my last post your .17 is now worth >.53 or >.80... i didn't tag which LEAP i would have played.

oh and yes VZ leaps are still good, but once news comes out of the actual iPhone on their network, then taper off and go with T puts instead.

It's your money not mine... so don't blame me if it doesn't work. I do have lawyers.

Another PLAY... VZ WILL GET THE iPhone...

2010-07-19T07:40:00.003-10:00

Looking at 2012 LEAPS calls 40@.17. Yes, cheap to be sure... thus low risk, but high potential for return.

Apple is only held back in the U.S. by AT&T. Once the exclusive is removed, like every other country, RIMM will be first to go down... Android will be the only viable platform. Non-smartphones will be the battleground that Nokia will continue to own with Samsung being around.

I do not plan to get in until after this Holiday season. We shall see how far this market sinks this fall.

I figured i'd blog something... but direct buying of AAPL options will only be bought if VZ is confirmed, otherwise VZ calls will be the speculative buy...LATER...

Miami's big 3... may have to battle getting out of the East. Celtics have one more year, Orlando still has Dwight (this was the team Lebron should have targeted ala Shaq/Kobe, Kareem/Magic), anyway Chicago also looks scary: they finally brought in a shooter and another rebounder in Boozer.

In the end, no doubt they "3-me's" will get their title(s). But now they will have a target on them EVEN LARGER than the Lakers.

The irony of all this is that things actually got easier for the Lakers with bunch of stars moving East. The West still has Dallas, Portland, Denver, and OKC... But the days of handing Lebron the MVP because of stats are OVER. Wade may never get one now. It's Kobe, Durant, or some PG.

I'm still here... and am SHOCKED that certain options are still green

2010-05-06T23:30:00.003-10:00

well, it's amazing to see the bottom feeders popping up again...

the July 320 call versus my original buy is actually still green... how is that possible? i mean did u see what happen to AAPL's stock? it nose dived 50 points!!! 50 points!!! it was like 2000 tech bubble crash all over again... and then it snaps back 40 points... IN JUST A MATTER OF 20 MINUTES close down 'only' about 10... Goldman... have you been buying?

Anyway, it would be a good time to travel to Europe this coming year... $1 vs EU 1.27 or .79 Eu vs. $1... it's the best i've seen since April 2009...

Well, APPLE the company should do ok regarding the number of iPad units going out the door. Not to mention the next iPhone, iMacs, i-something... i personally think iAds will be huge. possibly bigger than the App Store (which you can check on this blog) that i formerly thought would be the biggest thing for Apple in terms of revenue. The App store as it turns out has continued to differentiate itself from other WebStore/App fronts.

Bed time... oh, i predict much Bottom feeders a plenty if not tomorrow, next week... we'll see...

Replying to my commenter...

2010-02-08T17:59:00.002-10:00

While i will say that it may seem that OTM options can be viewed as 'sucker' bets... had i went along with my plan B and went with OTM put options... guess what... 1000% gain in 3 days... unfortunately, i speculated (if that word works here) the wrong way...

so, as it goes. my sell signal (that i carelessly didnt pay attention to) was the day the iPad was released. AAPL didnt break 115 thus, that was a signal to get out of it. Unfortunately, i was careless enough not to schedule a sell and cut my loses.

But as i readily posted... i was willing to take a loss on this one... knowing that i have some other investments (bonds in particular) maturing this year. i needed either a home run or a minor loss...

AND i do have shorts in play... just fyi. but thanks for your comment.

As it stands, the iPad should do well enough come the holiday season... IF the whole market keeps this fake rally going. if there is one piece of news that would cause AAPL to shoot up would be a partnership with VZ

Laziness stinks...

2010-02-04T07:57:00.002-10:00

Well, the one thing i forgot to do was set a sell on my options...

The thing is its been some time since i have done this thing... My wife's voice continues to ring in my ear, "maybe you shouldn't do options..."

If anything i should have gone with an AAPL put as well... or at least my favorite, FXP CALLS.

Like i said... Blow whats left

2010-01-28T07:51:00.002-10:00

Did i see a sell off coming... sure...

That's AAPL... buy on hype, sell on news... unfortunately i didn't buy any put insurance. I have lost on both ends again and was determined to go with the stock going forward.

My Mar call has been bought @.40 is currently worth .25
My July call bought @.9 is currently worth .50

Its no wonder my wife tells me a last night... "I think you should just do stocks - Options are too risky." Hmm the market sure made a point...

I hate to say it... Cramer was right on this one...
He said to be ready to buy when the sell off happens post Tablet news... but go long from there...

In any case... this $ has been collecting dust.

It seems as tho i will have to wait for the iPad to actually start selling to get any traction on my options. My March call seems outright dead... July holds out hope and now a January call is entirely possible... but the puts are out of my range.

Stuck again...

I AM BACK IN... blowing up what's left... in AAPL options

2010-01-25T10:26:00.004-10:00

I feel 'wordy'...

Well, i have been away from Trading... missing the huge bear rally... but when you get the snot knocked out of you so many times going long/short and both... you just stop and say where else am i losing money...

Paid off a couple loans since being away... So, that plan worked.

Today, i am finally getting back in by way of AAPL options.

So bought out of the money calls: AAPL Mar 270 @.4 AND July 320 @ .90.

I thought, well (even though i expect another crash as soon as march), common this is one of those Quarters and possible news a couple days later that can pump some real $$$$$$ into this stock. I might as well make my $ work for me and write off the loses later. I am not expecting much as this is a speculative trade based on the following:

1. QUARTERLY REPORT:
A. Possible surprise on iMac sales for Holiday Q
- they cant keep the 27 inch in stock (despite flicker problems)

B. Possible surprise on iPhone sales
- this past Q includes China and more non-exclusive carriers

C. Possible surprise news on anything else during press release
- Streaming and Ad companies were bought insight

2. POSSIBLE TABLET/iPhone EVENT:
A. Obviously a Tablet that will blow us away at a good price
- AAPL shot up $10 in about <2 days. I think news here might top it

B. Possible Verizon (and any other carrier) working with Apple
- lead some to speculate on the iPhone on VZ being an eventuality
- a VZ deal to some could be bigger than the Tablet.

C. Subscriptions being an option
- that is what Switchers always complain about

Anyway, i thought about going with RIMM/PALM puts as well but hey RIMM is prepared to to provide a rebuttal press releases... and PALM will likely be bought out anyway. I dont get how RIMM and MSFT dont bother to buy out PALM and their patents.

In the end, AAPL was what made me interested in stocks in the first place. Made much going with them (and loss when i started doing options *sigh*). So, I think it was an appropriate moment to go with the one company that really is far ahead of its competitors. I would say, if Apple didnt have to depend on Intel chips... no one would have any idea what Apple is doing - being that their has to be some type of leaks to their other OEMs or at least accurate guessing. And if Google's CEO wasnt on Apple's board, i think Android (and thus any competition) would be there for the iPhone.

So, i basically have everything left in my poor trading account going into AAPL. I will probably make a deposit to this account in a couple weeks... as i said before, there is a crash coming... just have no idea when its happening. But my Bear watchlist includes: FXP, SDS, SKF, SRF, and anything new i find that wraps the whole market on the short side.

Anyway, i am prepared to write off whatever i lose on these trades.
As much as AAPL could skyrocket, it can also drop off a cliff.

WINDOWS 7!!!! NO TRANSLATION REQUIRED...

2009-10-23T21:24:00.000-10:00

Finally, what the combination smartphone that I have been talking about

2009-09-11T00:05:00.002-10:00

Motorola finally figured out that they should give Android some love.

Android needs a phone maker that has design expertise and the ability to produce a sleek phone while incorporating the O.S.

Check it out

anyway, the iPhone is still hands down the best... i already believe that Apple has a successor to the iPhone 3GS... if you studied their product roadmaps regarding the iPods, you will notice just enough 'new' features and enhancements at either the same or slightly lower price points... Apple probably already has a 'super' smartphone - but why release it when the competition is still catching up to the original iPhone 3G or even in some cases the original iPhone.

But as long as AT&T is in the mix... i refuse to jump ship. i mean common, $30 data plan?

By the way... it looks like DUG will have difficulty as long as the $U.S. keeps sinking. thus, i do believe that FXP, SKF is a better. The unemployment mixed with inflation... big time trouble awaits. the crash may not be as quick as the Fall 2008, but it will be pretty close... and likely BIGGER...

Consumer confidence... propanganda'd up...

2009-08-25T21:22:00.004-10:00

Consumers are finding confidence in continuing to spend. Granted it seems finally common sense has entered the picture.

Yet we see these incredible deals when it comes to starting a new credit card...

Look this economy is not in reality getting better. Its true that the bear crashes of the last year and half or so were over-reaction, but reflect the fact that there are tons of people out there with no jobs... homeless... collecting from a govt that is broke.

In Hawaii, 1 of 11... collect food stamps... WHAT? yes 1 of every 11 persons supposedly collect food stamps in Hawaii. That is just another example where the govt is already trying to increase taxes to make up for lost income... but the conundrum(spelling?) is that citizens are using more govt resources than ever before. Somethings gotta give.

Now its not like i like seeing a bunch of homeless/jobless people around. There are people who lost pretty well paying jobs and have 3 kids, a mortgage and car payments.

In the end.. I continue to keep my life simple... and pay of debt as quickly as i can without cutting into having a 'normal' life.

DUG/FXP are still on the radar. it briefly played with trying to fall below 15 today. Nope... The oil rally may at the very least be sputtering. I have a few $ to get some long calls on DUG. S&P may very well get to 1300... but beyond that? i really doubt it. So, i am happy for the slow crawl on this rally. just to allow me more time to be a fool and jump back in the market with the few $.

Ahhh...

2009-08-21T07:36:00.003-10:00

Another day... another bear rally... another "we are close to getting out of the recession" speech...

well, i officially will have another loan paid off before months end.

DUG as i have been pushing just dipped below 16. I wish i had $ to buy some... but hey i am in no rush.

A buddy of mine is busy making coin... follow him at ibankcoin.com/gioblog.

I have neither the discipline nor the attention span to keep up with him.

Anyway, my wife found a few old papers... among them my original purchase of AAPL @20.14 sometime in 1998. of course my history of trying to make up for the fact that i didnt understand how much more $ i could have made from 2004 to Jan 2006 using options. Thus, i sold off my precious shares to enter option calls instead. And... there was my ultimate failure. Entering a trade(s) that i didnt fully understand. Some of this was Greed(who wouldnt want to semi-retirement) and some was just plain finding a fast way to pay off a few loans after getting married, her school loans and my dumb credit loan i thought i could use to leverage a trade. At least the ring/wedding/honeymoon were all paid off this year.

In the end, i still made thousands... and lost them as well. And as this market has taught me... there really is no rush to get back in until i clear up whatever loans we have. that right there will save me a hundred or so alone per month. So, there you go. Preservation...

And I still believe we have another bear window nearing (thus my love for DUG/FXP etc). You cant convince me that unemployment going forward will improve... (of course they could if these people would humble themselves and take lower paying jobs).

This was a long-winded blog. figured i get it all out. hey maybe DUG can get under $15 (52 wk low was $15)! Again if i only had free capital. The one bull stock? *sigh* AAPL. The one bull sector? alternative energy (one day this Obama friendly sector will be back... for now oil still rules)

Hilarious...

2009-08-19T08:00:00.003-10:00

Well, u know i been pushing DUG. But the entry i was originally looking for is <16.

As you see in my last post... i thought maybe 16 was the entry... Maybe it still is? For me, i thought with Asia getting whacked - that DUG would have been sky high (sans the oil surprise supply report). The funny thing is what that report tells me is that Americans are still in denial...

No longer is there panic, but just the mentality that - o.k. if cash for clunkers, printing $US AND bail outs(now via private sector) are continuing... why should i worry.

So, anyway... while i sit back and pay off whatever debts that my wife and i have, i am totally amused how this Market is messing with the minds of bunch of traders.

Again... i am in no rush... this pinball market will still be there when i am ready.

Enjoy the see-saw...
Of course for those of you benefiting from playing both sides, you should be up mightily from the last few days alone.

Wish you bought DUG huh... or any short...

2009-08-17T10:43:00.003-10:00

Well, you can think of this a couple ways regarding oil... being that it is seasonal. However, you will have to pay close attention to those hurricanes.

DUG was a buy @$16-ish

Now those monthly oil/energy trusts look mighty cheap... AAV, HTE, etc... i am not sure how much longer they can make the monthly payouts, but if you wanted a 1st entry... you got it today.

I just see some see-sawing for now. But WE ALL KNOW, that the bottom will fall out from under us again... when? who knows. i am just plugging along paying off debt.

The Market will always be there... and so will the opportunities. But if i want a guaranteed way of making $$$$... well, i best start with cutting ALL loses... no more paying loan interests... a few hundred in cutting costs goes a long way in this economy. And why not make my credit score look better. After all, i may need another loan in the future... not what i want necessarily - just being ready it comes.

DUG...

Well... The Wait Continues...

2009-08-04T04:32:00.003-10:00

I really dont mind waiting being that i have no free $$$$ to invest. I am busy paying off debt as fast as i can... without working too much at my stressful REAL job.

In any case, i am already wanting to get off the rock again... Why? Well, my 2 1/2 days in Paris wasn't very relaxing - my wife and i were rushing from Musuem to landmark and at times didn't have as much time to enjoy dinner. Either way, Paris is possibe some time next year. I hope the next crash happens (sorry 401K holders), and that way cheap air fares, hotels at 50% off and a better exchange rate.

My wife thinks i should have gotten enough of Europe - she wants me to experience Asia. Speaking of which... i do think they (China that is), is due for some trouble.

It just feels like the unemployment really hasnt hit this country yet. These banks reporting profits are basically reporting whatever little $ they are making after the U.S. tax payer has been paying off THEIR bills.

The charts show we still have some gains left in this bear rally. that 1050 on the S&P is still plausible... if anything, a big move awaits. And the only one I really like has seasonal history and charts showing that some buying action is picking up... in DUG. I would like it under 15. Of course, the charts show it has bounced off 15 a few timnes. In the end, I really have no idea where this market is going for the rest of 2009.

I'm BAAAACK... But will I really get back in..

2009-07-29T05:27:00.003-10:00

Well, i decided a couple of days ago to see what that AAPL - China Unicom would do for our NDX... nothing...

Today, MSFT - YHOO deal... nothing...

Looked at a seasonal pick... DUG... as summer break is basically over. it's bounced off 15s solidly... and today broke 17. Much of it has to do with the dollar of course.

I am looking at FXP & DUG.. SKF... you know the big bears are back. I still have FAZ in my pocket portfolio. which is almost worthless. In any case, I was looking at option calls on FXP/DUG/SKF. But as you know this bear rally feels like it has one last gasp before things get suicidal (not for me of course)...

I have basically been paying off debt... plus i just got back from Europe July 16. So, i obviously had no care regarding the market.

I still see the S&P trying to get to 1000 (the Fib exists in the 985/1050 range). And many are pointing to 10K on the Dow. Me thinks not...

Anyway, I am back... a richer for cutting down my finance charges... but poorer for the year for getting swindled in this market... Am I a sucker if I come back to it with my limited time and limited patience?

Sigh The Market Continues to be Manipulated

2009-06-15T08:18:00.003-10:00

Well... Reports surface that Apples new iPhone G3-S, pre-order units sold out! But as you know the market is down today. Dont get me wrong i totally want my bear position to get back in play...

I do foresee (like many others), that Apple will open up the iPhone to Verizon at the very least. They have the leverage to prove that the iPhone will retain customers. They can always threaten to remove the phone from any carrier if they dont comply in some way.

Apple also finally dropped prices across the board for their laptops. That gives you a HUGE indication of where they think this economy is going in the next few months/quarters. I hope they do the same for the desktops as well. (I want to buy my wife an iMac and hopefully a cheaper 24 inch will lead to covering the cost of VMware Fusion - *sigh* Windows still required)

Anyway, i have a sleeping put that will expire in July...hopefully it catches fire by then. It acts more as an insurance policy in that portfolio. I still have FAZ sitting around as well in another portfolio. So... thats it...

Europe awaits in about 3 weeks... so who cares what happens to the market while i am away...

MSFT... xBOX...PROJECT NATAL Impressive...

2009-06-02T11:31:00.004-10:00

MSFT finally has something "Apple-ish".

They weren't the first to develop the "Minority Report-like" interface... But the demo was very impressive. Sony had something similar called "eye-toy". But several observers have mentioned that Natal is more comprehensive and incorporates voice command.

The fact is there was are still questions:
1) nothing about how much this upgrade or addition to an existing xBox will cost
2) the SDK is still in the works

However, MSFT was right to present this now... it doesn't seem like the Vaporware of the past. The thing is this Natal thing MUST be accurate for gameplay.

In the end, MSFT doesn't hold a patent on this, although they seem ahead of the competition, as was evident by their apparently surprising the rest of the gaming world. So, we shall see how quickly the competition moves to catch or surpass what MSFT is offering.

And the rumors of Apple releasing a gaming device? Sorry to disappoint, but I think it is basically the iPod touch. But knowing how Apple works it's R&D they too could blow us away soon at the WWDC next week.

S&P still on course to 1100.

Bears lie in wait... S&P continues toward 1100

2009-06-02T04:16:00.002-10:00

Well, I have no position worth mentioning except my short position that awaits another crash. However, it seems as though this will not happen until the fall.

if it happens earlier... fine. If not, I am waiting with some cash sitting cautiously.

SOLD TAN... BOUGHT M puts

2009-05-13T09:37:00.002-10:00

well, retail numbers were worse than expected... and guess what. The market actually LOGICALLY reacted to the news NOT ignored it.

I was a bit bummed that i didnt pay more attention to TAN. Should have sold it at 10. I end up breaking even... despite this last huge rally. Safe to say I will not use TAN as an energy play again - unless volume get >1.5M... which i have never seen.

I used the proceeds of TAN to get some M puts that expire in 2 days. The market will be tested from here on out and may look for a bottom faster than I anticipated. I was thinking the S&P would get up to 1050. That might not be the case.

Thus, if the market finally decides to head lower according to news and NOT Govt hype, then my portfolio will be resurrected (as I thought it would)

Twitter was down for maintenance today, so there are a bunch of people who are probably lost. I for one only publish if i have an actual trade.

laters...

Hurry Up to 1050 will you!!!

2009-05-11T10:31:00.002-10:00

S&P continues its upward rally to 1050. Monday again was pull back day/dip buying day. So what else is new?

I just want this market to spike up to 1050 already... being that most of my portfolio sits on the short end.

Alas, my staying to cash prior to FAZ moving from 17-22 in 2 days would have been more prudent, yes? That was some time ago. In fact, I recall Tim of all people talking about this move on the S&P to 1050 before most if not anyone else. I believed him until that dumb FAZ buy... Anyway, my portfolio will continue to haunt me. I have no doubt it will resurrect itself once more.

Some are talking about a 10-20% correction is in the works. Personally, I think maybe a bigger correction, BUT with a huge bear rally of all rallies. And at that time I will commit.... hmm 50%... that would be my diplomatic answer. I have been caught too many times in the wrong direction, and it kills me when I was in the right direction to begin with. HEDGING has never been my strong suit, but in the end, it is a requirement.

See you all @1050 or maybe 1100.

Mondays have been bear days/dip buying... AAPL reports soon.

2009-04-21T01:26:00.002-10:00

So, here i am watching all this stuff unfold and i am stuck on the sideline AGAIN!!!

The basic pattern for the last month or so is...
Friday: take profits friday and hedge big with shorts/puts.
Monday: sell puts with a small block to buy bear ETFs on any bounces.
Tues-Thursday: watch your Longs make $$$$.

So, what else is new?
Well, if Tuesday doesnt sell off, then dont expect anything changing from the pattern i just mentioned.

What i learned?
ALWAYS have something ready when this kind of action happens. Inevitably patience wins out... Look at my old posts and see where i benefitted from waiting with a planned exit. But when i just bought with the long view of holding (knowing the next bear crash could come any day... or so i thought like many.), i got pounded to bits.

Anyway, it looks like we will open green Tuesday... any close that stays green heavily ways in the Bulls favor.

One more thing... AAPL reports wednesday - its earnings could totally throw things outta whack... for bears or bulls... stay tuned.

Exchange Rates....

2009-04-16T08:12:00.002-10:00

Well, i am looking at Euro vs. $US. Interesting how the $US as nearly 80% versus the Euro. A couple years back on my honeymoon it more like $1 = .67ish Euros. Horrible exchange. But with the US Govt printing money to cover the credit side of things, i better get me a good exchange now.

Its funny how i am treating this exchange thing for my European trip much as i would a traded stock (i dont do FOREX). This year the $US versus Euro has ranged from .75 to .79+. Last year .63 to .78

Following older data it seems that the $US strength really follows the strength of the market. Interesting... Thus, i am thinking that i may need to get a 1/2 position now, as we know a crash may soon be upon us, with another rally to follow.

Of course, the bears will be back, but it may take until 2010 for that to happen. Man, i wished i just bought long term-puts on FAS and FAZ instead....

sarcasm North Korea says they will still make bomb-grade plutonium... Market will go up Right?

2009-04-13T22:49:00.002-10:00

This market is mental... N.Korea "...we will [keep doing what we want]..."

So far lets see how things have been working out.

Banks that have been bailed out somehow claim a profit! - market up
The unemployment numbers have trended up, but not as bad as thought - market up
Houses not sold at record numbers - market up
North Korea?... Whadda ya think? Market up...

Pay your taxes Wednesday... i filled an extension, maybe i shouldnt, since the govʻt OWES ME money. Anyway, i just gotta hand it off to my CPA and thats it.

Hey, i just got a hang nail!!!... MARKET UP...

Excuse the sarcasm, but this bear rally (though not unexpected) annoys me.

Wake Me Up When This Smokescreen is over...

2009-04-13T00:05:00.003-10:00

Obama did his job in boosting the market. Thanks man, my portfolio thought you were going to say those things early on in January. What happened? I was totally long. I then switched to shorting and made up some loss $$$$. But in the end all this talk of "hope" is empty until we see a true reversal of the unemployment numbers.

Anyway, the technicals say we may be headed to 1050... Again... Hello, i thought all this stuff was going to happen 2 weeks ago when i was to cash. And waited patiently for an entry to FAZ while holding on to FAS. NOPE... Timing off on that one.

I am basically stuck with my stupid FAZ. AND my only true long TAN isnt moving much. A tech ETF or at least FAZ puts/FAS calls would have protected my dumb position. ALWAYS HEDGE in volatility.

Wake me up when this stupidity is over. The economy is nowhere out of the woods. And yet the market is ignoring all the bad press and when anyone from the FED or govt has something positive, we get a >3% day.

*YAWN* time to shut down my MAC for tonight.

On a fun note: The NBA...
Congrats to the Cavs for getting the best record. Granted the Lakers seemed uninspired to do it themselves, but they basically could have got it if they really wanted to. LEBRON is the MVP for this year. He learned to improve his game by hanging with Kobe during the Olympics. Smart move. He does need a little more help to get a ring though.
Considering how Jordan kept the 90s Cavs (not to mention most eastern conference teams) from getting to the Finals, it is refreshing to know the Cavs finally have a descent chance of winning it all. If i were Lebron, i would see my options in places like... NYC, (even LA, it aint happening of course... Sorry Kobe, but if Lebron accepted a MLE, what reason would Buss have to keep Kobe.) Anyway. Lebron puts pressure on the Cavs to supply him with winning role players by saying he would consider other cities. He could use a true defensive/rebounding big man (since he already got Mo Williams) and that would be it, they would be the favorites. For now the Lakers Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, Odom quartet is scary... They rarely if ever played at a high level at the same time. If that happened, the Lakers are destined for another dynasty. If not, the Cavs will be there with Orlando being their primary nemesis. The Lakers will be set for the next 3/4 years if they come through this year.

REALITY:
The Market has been kicking my butt for 2 1/2 years... If my accounts go dry... That may be it... I may turn this site to an empty shell of what-ifs and no more early retirement.... I am almost begging that my account doesnt resurrect itself as it has so many times.... i havent been able to manage my account along with work, my wife, my volunteer work, and just the every day stuff. There is this scriptural thought that says: "You cannot slave for two masters.".... very true indeed. Anyway, i am still vested short for the long term.

SHOCKED... WELL KINDA...

2009-04-11T16:47:00.006-10:00

This is like the 3rd FAZ crash this year. 107 to 50s... 50s to low30s/hi 20s and now 24 to 10 in less a week. I hate FAZ.

Look i had this thing where i was trying to get out of this FAZ and place emphasis on long puts on FAS. Too late... Anyway, I said in a previous post weeks ago that this rally could find the S&P back to 1050. Before another wicked crash... which apparently might not come until next year...

So, i have no choice but to leave things as they are...

My NOC may puts are dead at this point. i actually let this position ride after selling half the original entry... which actually profited itself for the whole position. Not a lot of $$ but any $20 that turns into $120 in a few days i saw was worth it.

As for my TAN long... it is up huge from a few weeks.

I have a bunch of stuff coming up... a buddies wedding... and just completed 3 weeks or so of my voluntary work making sure a bunch of people were reached with something important which ended April 9. How is that for timing. Anyway, i sit here massively short and whacked.

And i filled an extension for my taxes. It will be $$$$ for me later for my European trip. So, in the end things arent that bad. I truly regret going against my own advice to my co-worker, "If you buy a block of FAZ make sure you buy some puts for insurance." I basically got greedy and went all in... dumb move yet again...

I should truly have an account that goes to $0 and yet it keeps making a come back... That is the Street for you...

Am I convinced the bears are back?

2009-04-07T04:38:00.002-10:00

You all know that earnings season will stink... The rally provided awesome entries on SKF, SRS, FAZ, DUG, SCO... i can go on and on with the short ETFs. But in hindsight i wish i went with a LEAP PUT instead on THE LEVERAGED BULLISH ETFs. The 2011 LEAPS actually look pretty cheap.

Anyway, if we somehow finish green, we have a long bear rally... Otherwise, we are set for another bull vs. bear deal with earnings that may be "not as bad" as expected. If we do get earnings that bomb... HELLOOO BEARS AGAIN...

I am totally jealous of you guys getting FAZ<20 & SRS<40...

Waiting game...

2009-04-06T20:30:00.003-10:00

Todays action seems blah... i barely look at the market being that i am mainly short financials via FAZ and FAS puts.

The one thing i wish i had a small positionis SRS. I would never have thought things would get below 40. It has never been this low... It peaked last year in the mid 200.

But of all the sectors waiting for the crash i think it is (1) Financials (2)Tech (3) Retail.

Thus, this bear rally looks mighty technical to me. The reality is that we are no better now. If anything all those who avoided getting into debt are now enjoying buying up cheap houses, cheap vacations, cheap electronics. All the stuff the wannabes were buying on credit.

Anyway, i myself am waiting for a particular cruise to really get cheap. If it does I am all aboard.

OWN... FAZ/FAS puts, NOC, TAN...
WATCHING: SRS... and the following sectors.
retail: M, SHLD, TGT
energy: DUG, OIH
tech: SNE, RIMM, AAPL

BOTTOM??? Maybe... For FAZ... Look out for VIX <40

2009-04-03T08:33:00.002-10:00

The option side of FAZ is negative on both ends... it could change at days end of course.

It seems that there are a bunch of people walking cautiously on this one... Despite FAZ starting to tank down again, the put side is still selling off... possible marker that financials turn at this bear rally is ending (and shifting elsewhere, today it is tech). No one is going to be fooled with the banks in the long run...

SRS is a definite buy here...maybe <40 would be a buy... but definitely nibble here. It broke its 52 wk low...

The longer this rally goes, the more it complacent 'fear' seems to be pent up. VIX support is 40... below that... the bears will be licking their chops...

READY??? IT IS COMING... AND I CANT WAIT...

2009-04-02T23:39:00.003-10:00

Granted the Bulls have been whacking the bears to pieces...

The truth is that most bears are loving this... what an amazing set up!!!

My only regret is not waiting here, i was 'tricked' into believing the Bears would take control from Mondays bomb.

I am thinking that FAS LEAP 2011 Jan 3 put, may have been a better deal than my straight up FAZ. Some speculate that BOTH FAS & FAZ will go down to zero... If that indeed is the case then what am i doing sitting on FAZ here?

Anyway, FAZ is a definite 1/2 position buy here... Like i said in a previous post, the S&P has a huge move upward to possibly 1000. So, FAZ could still find the mid-teens - this reminds me of how oil kept falling with no end in sight (and how i sold my DUG calls WAYYY TOO early). So, anyway, i do hope for some relief tomorrow AND MONDAY... buy some time to get OUT of FAZ and into FAS LEAP puts...

Stuck... again...FAZ...

2009-04-01T23:57:00.003-10:00

Well, it seems as though i may have a tough time of this with the market rallying on VAPOR. Much like what microsoft used to do in VAPORWARE.

Anyway, my advice to someone recently was if you buy a block of stocks/etf... in my case FAZ, then have an option put or two as insurance...

My FAZ is getting whacked, and yet i still cant see how all these unemployed people can be ignored. Arent these the ones who eventually run out of unemployment benefits? Look i am not hoping that they cant find jobs. Its just the facts are not being put out there... so, why am i surprised right?

Well, FAZ in my mind will be a longer hold than i thought. I was hoping for more of a seesaw movement in the market.

The G20 is almost over and unemployment numbers are upon us. If the market ignores them... this rally does have real staying power for a bear rally. I think oil should have been my hedge... too late... so now i wait... stuck... again

Gotta finish my taxes... i hate paperwork

HUH? WAITING AGAIN... FAZ <20

2009-04-01T04:44:00.003-10:00

Well, today really stunk it up (so far). Market opens the way i expected - then BAM!!! "Better than expected economic data..." says Yahoo Finance. Puleeez...

Anyway, why cant this market just get things over with...

Well my TAN is getting some early volume... it isnt so hot as a hedge on FAZ... if anything FAZ puts would be the only way to do it right. I am thinking that a long put on FAS would have been better than what i have with FAZ straight up. I will have to calculate things later and see... i have a busy day after i get off this nightshift...

If FAZ holds here 18 to 19 range, then i think for those who haven't done so already, you might have found an entry...

Holding my ground... Eye on S&P

2009-04-01T03:25:00.003-10:00

Held my FAZ despite getting whacked yesterday... if anything, yesterday taught me that averaging in is the best way. had i done so, then i would have bought another block yesterday, but alas i was basically all in on monday.

today, we may find a reversal back to the bulls favor. it seems as though whenever Obama speaks, things never turn out. But if Ben speaks then the bulls clamor for a trade...

S&P has a few areas pointed out by iBankcoin & Tim...

As for my co-worker (i'll call him #2), i was surprised he didnt want to hold at least some of his FAZ. If anything i told him had he bought some underlying puts then that would have offset his loses for the day or even make him profitable. Alas, he is still gunshy and having been a 'victim' of the dot com bubble it is understandable. Fight another day... Fine, but this market is so volitile, he may regret having sold ALL of his FAZ & SRS...

We shall see if the bulls can win another day...

FAZ re-entry... considerations... another co-worker

2009-03-30T19:59:00.002-10:00

Well, i got back in FAZ... it it too early, i dont know, i do know i missed the <20 entry that one of my co-workers got in... Anyway got in at $24.

I am following the FLY/TIM as they have served a great gauges.
Tim is cautious at this point, spotting a few shorts while picking longs bouncing off lows whereas
FLY now has re-entered the market this past thursday/friday after being in cash for some time.

ANOTHER CO-WORKER
Apparently there are a bunch of them investing now. This one dude bought 1K blocks of FAZ & SRS. Hmm is he looking at the Fly? Anyway, that is a lot for him to jump plunk down like that. I learned he was a victim of the dot com bubble. And his jumping in like this shows he has a lot of guts. I hope he has an exit plan.

The other co-worker is has a more diverse portfolio, and he is still hanging on to some FAS. I don't think that is actually a good idea, though i appreciate his willingness to balance. I would rather go with alternative energy than financial on a long. Or even better go GLD/gold.

GM deal... just to bring in the bulls... And Much more stuff

2009-03-29T22:03:00.003-10:00

Well, Obama is doing his best to keep this rally going. GM CEO forced out. I am sure he has a few more tricks to manipulate the market. But facts are facts.

I am looking at possibly entering FAZ, SRS, FXP... or do MORE puts on FAS.

The thing is we need these pull backs even in bear rallies. And hey, these bulls at the same time are thinking they want to cut their loses (from last year).

The start of this week is telling but i think the end of the week really points if we again go <7K or eventually get to 10K with a final bubble.

MY CO-WORKER
My co-worker is doing an admirable job of starting out with a modest $2K account. He is profiting as a newbie. Congrats to him. He has learned to leverage his portfolio to cover himself if the market moves in either direction. His buys like WMT, FAZ, and now consideration in oil (with summer approaching) are in the play books of many traders. But it is funny that he asks me questions that i dont necessarily know the answer to, maybe that is why he is doing so much better than how i did when i started. He is already about 20 to 25% just in a couple months!!! Awesome...

At the same time he is not trading options. So, that might be all there is to it. My way of using options has basically failed for the most part, but i have found success of late WITH options. But i am still wary of them... So, i have strongly recommended my co-worker to stick to regular securities for now. til this day i regret selling my AAPL stocks in 2007 and moving to options. Of course, if someone taught me options during the AAPL run of 2004 - 2006 (less volatile), i would have been considering retirement in a few years. Alas, that is why we still enter this market, we dream of getting some $ and spending more time with the family & our "more important things".

I am much more of a realist... married and have other more important things in life. Sure the $$$$$ would be nice (especially to pay off our debts), but being happy and not waking up 3am has done wonders for my health and my wife.

AND the fact is... there are A LOT more opportunities ahead.

Current... FAS & NOC puts... TAN...
Watch:
financials: FAZ, FAS, XLF, SKF,
REIT: SRS
China: FXP
Market: SPY, SDS
Energy: DUG, DIG, USO...

S&P via SPY...next move to 875? maybe even 1050?

2009-03-26T07:25:00.003-10:00

Well looks like one of the dudes on ibankcoin has a good chart that proposes that S&P could get to around 875 (the last of the many lines of resistance)... and if it sticks we are totally having a HUGE bull run. He didnt say it, but that is what i see on the chart.

That is also shown on Tims chart as well. He cites the fall from 825 to 666. And now shows the overhead run of 825 to 1050 would take some time.

The point is it will always be tough to call the reversal on this trend, but the signs are there.
I may enter a few longs if we do get to 875 and bounce off of it rather than shoot right through.

I think my NOC may puts are probably done... i was letting it ride having sold half the position that was more than covered the principle costs... my only other short (july put) is on FAS. With everyone saying FAS could depreciate to zero, only makes the argument stronger. Gio cites FAZ could get to zero as well, i could only hope...

this thought btw, was brought to my attention a few weeks ago while i was banking coin on FAZ, this arrogant doctor had something smart to say about holding FAZ. I am like, hey, i am not stupid i learned you cant hold ANYTHING! The thing is successfully flipped to a FAZ put, but the dumb thing stopped out on a 66% profit when 2 DAYS LATER it was a 900% profit. So much for stops when things get volatile.

I patiently wait for 875 to get here... sooner than later would be nice for the bears (and bulls on the ride up).

What goes up...must come down... eventually

2009-03-23T10:26:00.003-10:00

Well, the futures pre-market were blazing. if anything it would have been nice to entered some FAS pre-market. But alas, i was busy with my congested sinuses this past week and needed to really sleep in.

My TAN is up 10%. but my FAS July 4 put took a whack.

I am still mostly to cash. I learned a long time ago to be wary about holding things into the weekend or making any entry on Friday. You just never know what the FED/Prez will say.

But i must say that i am totally happy that the market was up. I am spying LONG calls on the ETF shorts. But i am in no rush to get in... anyway, nothing else more to say...

positions
TAN stock
FAS puts
NOC puts (this prez doesnt mind the Defense sector)
VISN stock

yawn... i know, such a boring portfolio.

FAZ revenge...

2009-03-19T21:05:00.002-10:00

I didnt bother to wake up 330am Hawaii time, but wish i did... FAZ <25? talk about a day where the fade would have banked coin.

An April 25 call at the open = 100% gain... man...

But you know what? The bulls arent done yet... So, hang on tight for Fridays close. Clarity will come...

I personally hope FAZ dips back to 25... and jumps back up. But as with my trading history... it aint happening.

As for my lone significant position of FAS July 4 put. pretty much its sitting at a minor loss... waiting for a chance to get I.T.M. Believe me... it will...

Working on my taxes to pay for my trip to Germany... and some settlement money to pay off more debt. Hope to get black by years end... if not even huge on the green if my disciplined trading continues. I missed huge moves, but also avoided huge set backs. whew... will dip back into the market next week...

here's hoping the bulls are back tomorrow.

FA DISBELIEF and PREDICTABLE at the same time...

2009-03-18T07:47:00.002-10:00

Man i KNEW FAZ would crash one day, thus my FAZ 35 put (which got stopped out @1.1)... the thing is a whopping 4.69

Anyway, here's to FAZ getting to 20's and i will gobble them FAZ calls. I know one thing... No way am i selling my FAS puts. As quickly as this 'Financial rally?' has come... I do think it will end as dramatically. incredible.

FAZ will have to wait. Stopped out... the wrong way.

2009-03-18T00:24:00.002-10:00

Well, if anything, what i should have done was place a trailing 10% stop on FAZ. I would have @ least had a small profit. But i am glad that i only committed to 1/2 a position at the time. So, losing a few bucks here is still ok.

FAS july 4 put is still far out enough to get back ITM. but the time decay might kill off the option.

Alright see i am busy this week but will have an eye on FAZ hitting the 52 wk low...

As for this possibly missed opportunity on FAS, well that is all it is a missed opportunity thus far. I am inclined to dip in if it breaks $6. otherwise, no rush here.

SOLD FAS... BOUGHT FAS PUTS... EYEING FAZ & CALLS

2009-03-13T09:18:00.003-10:00

You know this rally aint continuing... SOLD FAS @5+. AND bought FAS july 4 puts@1.35. nice window for an option that can get in the money next week...

Anyway, i am not a huge fan of options, being that i am not as swift to grab profits. for example i held FAZ Mar 35 puts (originally bought @.60)... ended up missing the gap sell @2.0 on tuesday... it stopped out on wednesday @1.1 (still a profit)... only to find it 2.4 on thursday and today it peaked 3.3 (when i happen to be awake). as you see the following would have been plausible

TUES: sell FAZ on a stop >2
WED: re-buy WITH profit same option
THU: SELL or hold into Fridays last gasp.

And there you have it 800%+ gain. but nope, i end that specific trade 66% profit. options are fleeting...

ANYWAY, FAZ is calling again, and wouldnt you know it i happen to be awake this time and found it <39 (an obvious buy). BUT i flinch and let that slip... HOWEVER, may still get it at the closing bell...

UPDATE:
i bought a few FAZ @40.+(1/2 position)

FAZ put stopped out

2009-03-11T10:19:00.004-10:00

Well, the good news is my FAZ put stopped out... the bad news... my FAZ put stopped out. 66% gain is ok... but not when i had 200% (granted before i woke up)... Lesson learned. a far out option will bank huge coin on initial gaps, but even if it dips past the gap, it is unlikely that one will find a better return. i.e. set that stupid sell stop at both ends.

FAS is still barely up over 4.

Anyway, i think tomorrow we see some definite weakness, but the trend is still up. I think a big Friday awaits. And I dont dare hold over the weekend.

My hope is that FAZ gets <50 again... it bounced off of it today (51ish actually). I will get in eventually. I have no reason to rush

50% of my kid account is to cash... remember to respect the market AND pay off your debts.

SIGH...

2009-03-11T08:38:00.003-10:00

Well, yesterday i bought FAS @3.57... it ran up to 4 and hit a wall... although we havent reached the close yet...

Also decided to hold my FAZ put one more day... The problem is i didnt wake up early enough to cash out a 333% versus 40% where it sits now. I dont know if the bulls have chickening out here... or at least banking their profits, which is what i should have done. ANOTHER LESSON with OPTIONS proftis dont stick around for long so... WAKE UP FOR THE OPEN!!!

Anyway, i set my sell stops this time around for the last hour. Another green day means an extended rally is ahead of us... if not, oh well... that is what stops are for...

FUNKY...

2009-03-09T21:54:00.003-10:00

So, we have the market down... AND FAZ down. I like the latter for obvious reasons. But things just keep getting more difficult to read.

You would think that Tuesday will bring a rally, but really who knows.

I actually did expect the market to head down today (Monday), to shake out any more indecisive traders. But i also thought the Bulls would make a better show.

My puts on FAZ has a small profit. Nothing to cheer about, hope we get a massive Rally so as to re-enter FAZ or another Bear ETF.

SOMETHING NON-FINANCIAL: NBA...
One more thing, Lakers obviously NEED Bynum, he still seems lost sometimes, but he has an edge on him...Ever since i saw him almost take out James, I thought that the toughness (if thats a word) And Odom looks like he will be gone at the end of the season, depending on whether he contributes in the Finals.

Spurs look really good as long as Parker and Duncan are healthy. I think they have this year and next...and that is it for this group.

Cavs lack inside presence.

Boston will be back in the Finals if KG is back no doubt. Maurberry should get his legs back, but he will have to learn to play D first...

Orlando, i dont think they are ready for the pressure. If they still had Jameer, I would put them ahead of the Cavs

So, the question is LA or Spurs vs. Boston... and maybe Cavs

My hyper-extended shoulder is killing me... It is a good thing that I have sick benefits. Injuries are lame... I have to get in better shape before I turn 40.

Ideas on ETF

2009-03-09T00:58:00.003-10:00

Well, my guess for Monday is we actually open down hard... only to have a flood of bulls..

Possible ETFs to look at include XLV (health), TNA (3x small cap bull), UYM (materials), FAS (financials). Too many to list...

But remember the window on these trades may have to be a day trade... it would be hard to stay long anywhere except where Obama has openly backed things... alternative energy, health care, education...

I am surprised that the Defense/Military sector continues to hold up... If you just wiped out a weeks worth of operations, much of the U.S. deficit would be made up... Dont believe me? Look it up yourself... Democrats usually dont fund defense as well the Republicans. I dont like politics myself, just a general observation...

Anyway, this week the bulls are due for a charge... if i do find FAZ in the green... i have no choice but to wait patiently. No reason to chase anything... unless is breaks below 6000...

Whew... I Vented yesterday... I missed the build up to a rally by a day. And MY bigger picture.

2009-03-06T21:59:00.005-10:00

FAZ... missed the sell by a day
Well, i was relieved to see the bulls back at Fridays close. I was out doing some stuff w/ this dude getting hitched. I was sidelined today, but Monday may present a huge opportunity. Especially as i have no position in FAZ... except for a tiny FAZ March put, being that even FAR OUT of the money is reachable as "violent" the market has been on the bull and bear sides. I cant complain as Gio reminded me... anytime someone gets in @39 and sells near 97 within 5 weeks... why complain. Sure, i SHOULD HAVE set my stops to allow FAZ to run >100 and yet keep a stop @95... but i digress.

MY BIG PICTURE
All I know is the large picture going back to the 70s says low 6000 is just about the bottom... from the 1984/5 to 1994/5 had a move of 2000 to 4000. Remember 1995 was the dawn of the internet and the beginnings of the individual INTERNET investor and a flood of newbies that 'gamble' their way into the market has made the market slave to speculative trading...

The thing is a healthy pace would have placed the Dow @low 7000s, if you made a straight line from 1984 to 1994 and into 2009. So the big picture to ME is that we've been overbought UNTIL 2009 came around. We are at healthier levels versus MY big picture, but the economy really stinks... so, we are headed for the doldrums of the 1970s AND a bit of 1980s inflation to some degree at the same time... if we do collapse <6000, i wonder if we would be in a mode where wall street will have to reboot and maybe we get back to 1984 levels. I doubt it will be that bad, but who knows.

2009 will be a long year... As for Bernack-ity saying a this recession could end in '09, I dont 'buy' it. 2007 gave us a bunch of warning signs...2008 confirmed it... 2009 we are accepting it... the American and Global economy stinks and will for some time.

FAZ... i hate you...

2009-03-06T08:15:00.002-10:00

What RALLY? REALLY! NOPE... NOT YET.

Anyway, patience... patience...

I was thinking about it yesterday as i sold FAZ... for the most part FAZ follows this pattern of opening/gapping lower then running up...

Today was no different. so, far as this post is before the market closes.

As for my AAPL puts... looks like i shouldve left it in place. lame, i missed getting back 25% more of my loser position.

My guess for next week? Dunno...

If we somehow end the day green... then itll be all good for me and a bull set up for next week, but for now watching FAZ up another 14%... I HATE YOU FAZ.

SOLD FAZ & AAPL puts... bought FAZ puts

2009-03-05T22:08:00.002-10:00

Ok... sold FAZ 96+... but i SHOULD have set stops at <96 and >100... oh well a few bucks off... Not bad considering i got in at 39. Sold AAPL puts at a loss, being that AAPL is one of the few spotlights that the few bulls are clinging to... Believe me though, i may rebuy puts on AAPL at earnings...

Anyway, i do sense a BIG time rally... we may get nibblers to the table tomorrow... which i do hope, and i think another drop Monday.

After that I really do think the Dow will head back to 8000 level. At that point I will again look to reload on my FAZ.

Anyway, i have learned that patience is imperative... follow me or thehawaiitrader on twitter... i do not log on every day, but i do when i place my trades... and especially when i feel we are at a crossroads on the tape or near resistance or support on the Dow.

Pay your debts (and make money by saving it)... that is all i got to say, and everything will be bonus...

Every tried Safari 4? Awesome browser... However,

2009-02-27T21:41:00.002-10:00

AAPL itself will/has fall but I am unsure... Awesome products, stock stinks since 2008. Anyway, this is one company that will be uber powerful if this recession ends before long...

For now i have puts on AAPL and have a a few shares of FAZ... of which i should have had more...

Anyway, some of my co-workers are saying 6000 on the DOW within the month... I really dont know if that will happen, but i do think we will get there some time this year.

The Missing Stop... on FAZ

2009-02-24T14:55:00.003-10:00

Well, as i even noted in my previous post. Selling above 80 would have been a good idea. The sell off was merely another leg to a lower day in the future... I admit about being bummed about missing my sell point and rebuying here (mid 50s), but my belief is that we are still waiting for the big bust...

Today would have been a good day to reload on puts. but alas, i hate having expiration dates...

Thus, I continue going forward on FAZ. My next sell point will actually be higher if we do sell off tomorrow... If we get higher, Its all about riding it out for the rest of the year. As the summer slump approaches.

But if anything, today was merely a banking of profits for the Bears.

FAZ still has ALOT of upside

2009-02-24T02:09:00.004-10:00

Last week Tuesday, I overheard a doc @ a hospital mention how these inverse ETFs would eventually be useless and that NONE of his mutual fund or his supposed inside fund manager friends say they would rather not trade something like FAZ.

HA! HA! HA! HA! HA!

Yea, your idiotic fund manager friend is right in the long term regarding how these inverse or Bear ETFs are funded. But look here... buy $39 and change and a couple weeks later $79... and i actually missed it going to $85 (my sell stop/limit would have been $80 and rebuy @<70)

Anyway, the point is, these fund managers may be smarter than me or have a gigantic portfolio. But all this extra talk about NEVER trading Bear related ETF is stupid. Bunch of talk... blah blah blah...

And the funny thing is i told a co-worker to buy FAZ under 39... and he told me today, I should have listen to you. I did ease his feeling of missing a move by telling him I missed a lot of moves after having gotten bored - at which point of course the tickers i followed suddenly moved while i fell asleep at the wheel.

Anyway, i follow REAL fund managers and REAL traders (Fly, Tim, etc), granted i could be piling up more $ if i paid more attention to my portfolio... The investors I follow are all double digit % up. I'd like to know how this Big talking doc is doing. All these supposed secret trades or buying up whatever debt deals are all speculative.

FAZ is making me (the regular dude) $$$$. Of course, i was blasted late 2008 and have little to show at this point, but I know I am doing better than the Doctors fund friends... bunch of wusses...

Excuse my rant... I would love to shove it in their face, but alas one of these docs could save my life one day...

FAZ... i am back in... and hedged.

2009-02-09T09:40:00.002-10:00

FAZ <40? Of course it's a buy. It actually got <39 - no doubt a buy there.
Going option calls on FAZ was tempting, but alas i have no time to look at this thing with all this other "more important" stuff going on.

Look, I am still hedged on FAS and TAN (solar ETF hasnt done anything, but is there for Obama backing).

I am just working to get my debts down and get back in the black come 2010 if not sooner.

NO CHANGE...

2009-02-04T04:13:00.002-10:00

Hey, I sent a text to a trader i follow and btw is up last year and so far this year. I had to mention my confusion yesterday regarding reverse ETFs. They were all being bought while the market was up >1%. Whah???

Anyway, my positions are unchanged. It looks like this market will head higher albeit at a snails pace... until more bad news that is...

I missed a bunch of earnings misses A.K.A. option put entries. But hey, i dont trust the market. There have been times i bought a put prior to earnings... and although the news is bad, buying of the stock occurs.

I still believe in FAZ. But not here. <40 was the entry i missed and did call... altho i didnt post it. I told a co-worker newbie to watch that ETF and i gave him the exact entry. Whatevers... more opportunities await for sure. I am busy with "more important things" and one of my buddies is getting married in a few months...

I also await a settlement from a car accident almost 2 years ago and will see if i can settle for more than what is being offerred. Then use that $$$$$ to pay down debt. In fact, that is the best thing we can do... rid ourselves of debt.

And i will try to get my taxes in order so as to get a refund before the Fed gov't turns into California with the I.O.U. checks.

Last Week Summary... Other news...THE PATENT

2009-01-26T20:18:00.002-10:00

I bought some Apr 65 puts last week.(knowing the way things have gone for me, the stock will likely go up) Why puts? Well, eventually the market is never happy with AAPL. The best time to have done this was likely MacWorld. But i missed the boat on that as well as SNE puts. That wasnt hard to see coming.

OTHER NEWS...AAPL will likely go up on a patent...
Apple was awarded that Mult-touch Patent (on mobile devices). Trouble now awaits for any touch screen hand held. So even though PALM has been the main target by the media regarding this threat (being they are weak), RIMM, NOK, Samsung, LG, maybe MSFT... Anyone, who has some sort of gestures or multitouch will face a legal battle. And the thing is AAPL has $28B and growing to protect its newest platform.

So, my eyes are again on RIMM/PALM long puts...

Otherwise, i have puts on a defense company, AAPL... and hedges on FAS/TAN...

missed the FAZ. HOLDING pattern on FAS & TAN.

2009-01-21T01:02:00.002-10:00

No choice but to hold.

I have thoughts on getting in on monthly distribution type investments...

Will inform later. But least to say everything is dirt cheap.

AAPL will be interesting. Could it reach a new low today? Or is the apathy priced in...

AAPL panic selling... I did warn people... FAZ train continues.

2009-01-14T22:05:00.002-10:00

I just wished i bought AAPL puts instead of RIMM. And now i feel we will gap down on the NASDAQ. The thing is, this might lead to an awesome time to buy AAPL if it ever gets to the 50s. Big if...

The FAZ train has passed it may even get to 60 by weeks end *sigh*... i should have at least average in. Now i am sidelined until at the very least next week.

Sitting Out... Watching

2009-01-14T10:56:00.002-10:00

FAZ has been a good trade for me. I have two accounts. And it seems like i should have left one account as my hold account.

TAN is back on my radar. I am hoping that Obama says something about Solar... Although i wonder if going U.S. solar would be better than TAN. If so, i think FSLR is still the leader...

Gio has warned everyone that the VIX is back. I will follow it again... and this time obey...

FAZ stopped out @ 2 levels

2009-01-12T20:29:00.002-10:00

The ending of 2008 pretty much summerizes my inconsistent/undisciplined style. The picks were good. The lack of setting stops and booking profits has been my downfall. The HTX trade was one of the worst trades i have done. I took myself out of trades that involved put buying FXP and then buying up C that would double and again put buying the inverse ETFs at the end of the Turkey rally.

Regarding my worst trade of all time? It was NOT leaving AAPL stock alone(sold it @80 in 2006 and started trading options - lost me more $$$$ than i want to think about.

Even though i missed the high today by about a dollar, I knew the thing would sell hard at days end relative to the 2 hour real time graph:

Stopped on 1st small bunch @47.9 ask... then 1/2 hour later the smaller portfolio @48.5 ask. I kept moving my stop during the day.

Booked my profits as the upcoming Obama rally may be upon us. All the earnings this Q might have well been priced in.

My lone FXP call will not hit unless there is some sort of blue chip bankruptcy. Same goes for RIMM jan 30 put. that was a waste.

I am thinking of switching to half FAZ and FXP. I am tired of options and will contine to devote my puny portfolios into inverse ETFs. The only stock i plan to touch at all is FSLR or any non-china Solar as my Obama trade.

Anyway, tax season is upon us, and i will be one of the many getting a return as one who didnt bank anything except at my real job. And looks like i will have 2009 to carry over my losses. That's my only "silver" lining (actually Solar lining would be better)

Like i said, FAZ... Btw, education stocks on fire...

2009-01-09T07:56:00.002-10:00

I watched FAZ dip to 34 a few days back but now it rides 40. In other words i am back green on FAZ. My options in RIMM & FXP have not turned out at all.

Oh and Gio hit it right... using fundamentals of all things...(not the VIX). Talk about old school. Anyway, i enjoyed my time off doing other stuff... So, its nice to know i have FAZ just sitting there waiting for an explosion of sorts...

The NBA is very interesting tonight. Celtics and Cavs. I hope Cavs whack the Celtics. I dont particularly like Lebron, but i know he will replace Kobe one day as the best in 4 years if not sooner. I mean, few will take a charge on a Linebacker sized body. He can go to the hoop almost anytime. Kobe on the other hand has a full array of AMAZING shots from any point of the floor. The craziest shot was a FADING 3 Pointer... with his LEFT HAND as time expired... Lucky? Maybe... but he shot it and it went in. Anyway, just saying that we should enjoy Kobe before he retires. Lebron is the future.

Enjoy your weekend... if you dont oh well... i will enjoy it for you...

Tax season!!! I will have $$$$ to deduct even though i cashed out some government bonds. Unfortunately a few bad trades cost me in 2008 and I only caught the tail end of the crash only to be blind sided in the year end rally. So, in the end, I still win (i am not trying to sound like FLY)...

MacWorld cool... Apple stock: forget it...

2009-01-04T22:33:00.002-10:00

If you have money to risk fine...

I am personally more interested in some new Macs... honestly, so the Refurbished ones are cheaper... maybe i will bite...

The oil trend is definitely continuing. I can't wait til all this Obama stuff gets done with...

Patience...

2009-01-02T00:41:00.002-10:00

Asian markets are up at the time of this post... And all i can say is, let the Obama propaganda begin...

Thus i stay right where i am... if you have options puts... lengthen the window. The crash is coming, we just dont quite know when.

WAITING...

2008-12-28T17:43:00.002-10:00

I am not the bit excited about the market. Its boring to tell you the truth...

But my last blog prior to taking a "vacay" has worked out thus far. I am surprised at how oil just cant get any momentum going.

But my FAZ position and RIMM Jan 30 puts are so far plus... I really have no reason to change a thing. I will be watching others (particularly the pro dudes) that trade as bigger events pop up. Especially, just before and after Obama is inaugurated. I suspect the Market will react with volatility with every decision he makes...

So, if you thought it was hard to trade 2008... Well, 2009 doesnt get any easier. With that see you in 2009...

FOOLS (BLACK) GOLD? FAZ & RIMM puts again...

2008-12-19T12:51:00.005-10:00

FOOLS (OIL) GOLD...
I sold my stupid DXO... in other words, DXO will no doubt go up Monday. *sigh* So, thank me later. Found out that it is basically based on an index related to 2009 CL contracts... in the end, the auto bail out didnt do anything for oil, and OPEC cuts havent budged it much either. I will pay attention if oil does bottom out. We shall see how desperate OPEC gets and if the economy can even afford oil when people cant eat and have to pay off their newly refinanced homes.

RIMM
Like a FOOL, i went for Jan 30 puts in RIMM. The thing is, they are expanding to the consumer space... where there is ALOT more competition. And for maybe 50% that have tried the Storm - myself included... think its just not there yet. I will say i still like their other phones. But that's just my opinion.

FAZ
I also was up when i saw FAZ @ 36+. But i didnt pull the trigger. Being that Mr. Bush did his thing... Thus I kept thinking this would tank to the 52 wk low... In the end i got it at 38 and change and will let it pick up steam for next year.

Otherwise, my now smaller portfolios are 30% cash. Just waiting for some incredible advice... maybe KIM or other REIT commercial related properties are the way to go (Props to Fly). And IF there is a long out there, it is solar (Obama-backed!). In the end it will be hard to kick the bear around past January when reality sets in.

I am off to start a vacation... somewhere...

Obey the VIX.X

2008-12-19T00:09:00.002-10:00

Well... the VIX bounced off a low - bearish - if not, avoid going long.

Anyway, being that i have puts on RIMM, i hope its market wide...

DXO i still hate you... the views out there include thoughts that oil is near its bottom, but that it may be months if not YEARS for oil to get back. But remember, Obama is not into the black gold.

Well, i will unfortunately have to get up early to sell the RIMM puts for anything greater than $0.

DXO... I HATE YOU... OTHER STUFF: RIMM

2008-12-18T22:34:00.002-10:00

Aright, i am now totally annoyed at my DXO. I have no doubt that OPEC will indeed cut production even more... but its taking up $$$ that could go elsewhere.

i bought RIMM Dec 30 puts today. shoulda bought them yesterday, but i just forgot about it. in any case RIMM made there Q estimates and guided "ok" for the next Q.

There Blackberry Storm is helping them and cursing them at the same time. I havent heard so many people wanting to return a phone at such a high 50%... even after the last update. And yet that piece of news didnt make it to the traders desks. I will indeed buy puts again on RIMM in the future. But for now at least i took the risk, which i guess was already priced in.

FAZ would have been the perfect buy for me today... or yesterday actually, which someone in fact did as i follow a bunch of traders. i should just listen to these dudes... and skip my reasoning some times.

Well, options expiration tomorrow means SELL SELL SELL... that will be the only way i come out of this last RIMM position with with a minimized loss.

SOLD FAZ/HELD DXO on Monday... Wassup for Tuesday

2008-12-16T01:36:00.003-10:00

Well, i was able to watch the (digital) tape and saw FAZ bouncing back and forth 52 to 53. Sold it at $51.87...

I figured there would be some action by OPEC that would be reason enough to hold DXO. Even though it would have been a nice sell at the open and buy back at the close kind of day.

The Fed
They will likely cut rates... further depreciating the dollar and (possibly)boasting oil prices again.

I was right to have my eye on UUP puts/UDN calls... and yet i forgot about entering those positions... another day more opportunities. we shall see...

Missed the spike @ the open...

2008-12-12T12:46:00.003-10:00

Today however, would have been a good way to trade out of FAZ and get right back in next week...

Man with a spike like that i would have sold FAZ in a heartbeat... and yet living here in Hawaii i am knocked out... 4 am hasnt been kind to me in the past. If anything i would wake up and go right back to sleep.... but i have missed hmm 4 trades in the last month that would have banked me huge... i refuse to relate them as i dont need any reminders. goes to show that this isnt easy trading... and even those i turn to as my gauge are caught by surprise, and yet they have enough hedges to get through volatile days.

DXO tho has nowhere to go but up... it seems that eventually the auto suckers will get their bail out money... they are just buying time until mr. obama gets in...

thus, the ideal trade for me today was to sell FAZ at the open and buy GM (yes they make some ugly cars) but hey they ended higher today 25%... pocket change for most of you, but its all about survival with my portfolio at this point.

I am just trying to keep things in check so as to participate for next years bear storm...

Will be back monday... hope a spike happens somewhere... and i am awake for it...

Set It and Not Forget It

2008-12-12T07:59:00.002-10:00

Well, there seems to be some agreement & deviation among opinions of my gauge
- some say buy oil here, others say no
- some have taken profits on shorts or added long hedges

In either case, it would have been good for me to sell my FAZ (22% profit) at the open and reenter them today. Ah, the joys of living in Hawaii... not Wall Street friendly at all.

In any case, long FAZ was never a bad idea.
Will find out if OPEC helps my DXO next week.

Otherwise, i am 'stuck' right here...
btw, its weird to see FXP hold its own with the market slightly up...

Messed Up again... late DXO... likely sell tomorrow and hold a few for a long hedge.

2008-12-11T19:02:00.004-10:00

Well, i finally get a chance to catch up on what my trader gauge in the form of iBC, TIM, MAC

I AM LATE... AGAIN!!!

But what can i do, I had more important things to tend to...

So, my DXO position according to the 'Gauge' is likely messed up... And my position if FAZ will only make up for loses in DXO. At least my lame FXP call will likely come to life once more...

OH, and dont forget to check out UUP, UDN, come to think of it I was looking at FXE (Euro) awhile back, and that would have been a better position than DXO.

Bear days are here again... but we shall see how things end in 2008. Any Auto Bail out settlement will bring the bulls back out to play (which i want to years end... then we can smack the market in 2009)

Switched SKF to FAZ... Bought DXO... What else?

2008-12-11T13:54:00.005-10:00

SKF to FAZ
FAZ 3x bear was just a matter of time when it was going to make a move. The fact is it was cheaper to get in and the potential going forward is a 52 wk high of 160s were reasons to switch from SKF.

DXO
I did buy 200 DXO. My feeling here is that oil will have to go up from here. Why? OPEC coupled with the devaluating of the U.S.$ will not make oil any cheaper (not to mention the general media talking about oil to $25, a weird but useful signal to go contrarian). And then we will have a double whammy on our hands. Unemployment AND Higher fuel costs... my 2nd block of 100 shares was NOT suppose to go in. Rather i was looking at adding to FAZ... oh well... I will unload my 2nd block on any hints that oil goes below $40...

TIMING
oil news is ahead of us, so it might have been a bad time to get in on DXO... otherwise my switching from SKF to FAZ just when FAZ broke above $44.

WHAT ELSE?
So, in the real world the advice to everyone should be to get out of your debts... NOW... the govt wont be able to take care of you - so save for yourself.

btw, i am looking at UDN calls or UUP puts... i.e. shorting the dollar. Do you honestly see the dollar getting fixed any time soon?

MIXED...

2008-12-10T11:41:00.004-10:00

I woke up just 2 minutes to the market closing... Too groggy from nightshift. Wanted to get in a call somewhere today or buy oil. Didnt happen...
My FXP Jan call continues to get ripped to shreds... while SKF holds its own, with thoughts of switching to FAZ.

Its a market where general picks have no place. If i had a chance tho, i would buy FXP calls here... It goes to show that you can let the market come to you rather than the opposite.

Likely Switch SKF TO FAZ

2008-12-09T14:31:00.003-10:00

The fact that Tim highlighted FAZ being at current levels is very intriguing. I mean if it turns out truly as 3x bear versus 2x... Then FAZ has the potential to be a HUGE winner, but it has yet to attract as many traders as SKF. Thus, I will switch out one of my accounts from SKF to FAZ and hold it well into 2009...

As to if this rally continues... it still can. So, I refuse to be baited back to options for awhile. My options just lose value over time with the choppiness.

Vigilence Required

2008-12-09T04:59:00.000-10:00

I am in no way celebrating the market starting down. For all I know this is a dip in the eyes of the bulls. The only thing that matters is the last hour of trading. So, again I am 'stuck' with my positions.

I will hold on to SKF as a true long into next year. And will add call options if i obtain more capital for the big bear awaiting in 2009

GO RIMM GO!!!

2008-12-08T11:42:00.002-10:00

I totally am rooting for RIMM to sprint all the way to earnings. why? because the Blackberry storm will NOT save RIMM. I like my Pearl and will likely get the clam shell version of it soon... But in its battle against iPhone, it is no match and with NOKIA N97 waiting to come state side, RIMM will be in for a rude awakening come earnings day. Besides, they already revealed that they had to cut guidance for the current Q (or was it year). So, they are basically showing all their cards.

Incidentally, RIMM reports on options expiration week... PERFECT STORM... and I am not talking BlackBerry Storm... Perfect Storm to put.

HARD LESSON AGAIN

2008-12-08T09:56:00.002-10:00

The good news... at least i wasnt stuck going long on SKF calls.

Bad news:
I sold my lone SKF put, when i shouldve added as a hedge.
-It would have easily enveloped my loss.
I should have sold FXP call yesterday and ate the loss
- Now this loss is bigger and i am exposed to the short side
- I have no hedge!!!

Simply put, i am not in a position to 'trade' or at least daytrade. i should have waited for the close to enter a position. but at the same time SKF stock was a smart move in terms of avoiding options... the risks/volatility are still there, but at a more manageable pace.

SOLD SKF put... BOUGHT SKF

2008-12-08T08:21:00.002-10:00

Well, i had enough of options. It was my fault to begin with in not setting a stop on my FXP calls a couple days back. And I paid for it.

Its time to finally LEARN how to take advantage of my resources: GIO, FLY, TIM, CHART_ADD during the market.

I am just not in a position to deal with volatility... cant keep my eyes on the screen while i have other stuff to do.

Obama Speaks...How will Wall Street react?

2008-12-07T19:15:00.003-10:00

Obama plainly put it straight. '...economy will worsen..."

And there you go. Monday will be another day where the bulls will have to beware yet again...

I will not add to my position unless we have a huge gap up or down... Oil is up for the time being. It seems that OPEC will cut production... in a huge way. So, my eye is on that as well.

In the end... Long-term Short on the market... short-term bull on oil... but i need a good entry... i am stuck again with my FXP call, but a SKF put...

Year End Rally? Oil comeback... Old calls

2008-12-06T08:00:00.003-10:00

Well it seems as though we may get that year end rally (which i want).

OIL
It looks like DIG/USO calls and Airline puts are the way to position for the imminent production cuts that OPEC is saying will be 'severe'... Well, that wouldnt be cool for those of us who want cheaper flights. And expect your gas to spike as a result as well. Buy your gas before Dec 19.

Old Calls
my AAPL, POT, YHOO calls are too far out to get any of this bullish action. If they did somehow hit green i would guess the DJI would be back in the 10K range... doubt it.

Will see what is in store come Monday... i am still >75% cash... if we continue going green (without an opening gap) i will consider adding calls. Again DIG/USO calls might be the way to go.

OMINOUS....

2008-12-05T07:35:00.003-10:00

We have been warned (by the charts) that we ARE going lower... This see-sawing trend is LOWER. The thing is, it just might not end that way today... we have to wait til after the weekend for that to happen - let people think about how bad things are. But DOW back to 7k is a matter of when not if. And I think we go <6k to celebrate the new year.

either way you look at it > 500k jobs lost is never a good thing. so, i hold right here with two main positions
FXP Jan 100 call... yes i do think it will be that bad
SKF Dec 80 put... safety if a miracle rally breaks loose.

I need cash to wait out any spike... being how i missed out on 2 big moves while i held that crazy HTX. The thought that HTX would simplify things was a mirage.

Bought FXP... HTX error/loss... AND SKF puts

2008-12-04T08:33:00.006-10:00

BOUGHT one FXP Jan 100 call...
BOUGHT one SKF Dec 80 put... to cover my butt.

HTX error..
Pluuueeez this was such a useless trade. A loss... The options sold in my account were not actually mine (because of the option symbol change related to the dividend)... How is that for advertising Ameritrade. They of course didnt charge me for the error made, but they did have to fix it for their books. The options in the end are worthless.

So to rub salt in my wound, my funds were not available to add another position today... thx *sarcastic* ameritrade.
And the thing is it cost me last week on the volatility: losing out on calls on Ultrashorts (FXP/SKF) and after shorting/putting the Ultrashort options. ARGH!!!

Anyway, my tax guy will have fun figuring that one out. A stock bought about 20... dividend payed 13.55... stock sold $4.xx. So, it was a loss. But then again its a dividend gain (at least i am only taxed 15% on that)

So tomorrow is a HUGE day for the bears. consumer credit, unemployment numbers, nonfarm payrolls... OUCH! Why was I hesitant to to load up my shorts? Anyway, nothing is for sure... but i am bracketing FXP/SKF...

HTX experiment failure UPDATE: success?

2008-12-03T03:59:00.006-10:00

HTX
Well, my understanding of how options work with a dividend was lacking. It seems at this point that my options are also worthless.

I still await a payout. And I ended up losing. It seems that I will get paid the $13.55 as the stock itself dropped like a rock in value from 17.48 to about $4. Note that i bought the stock @19.20's... so in essence pre-market I lost 8%. Again not to mention the basically worthless non-standard options.

The irony of the whole deal is that i thought this was a more stable way to approach the volatility.

I will not be participating in any more dividends of this sort (except maybe oil/energy trust funds that pay out monthly without a hit to the stock)

This totally kept me from participating in the recent swings. I didnt have an entire understanding of how this works. I did in the past own Palm puts prior to a dividend. I just didnt recall how that worked out. I didnt bother owning the stock, just the options puts, which in the end netted a loss.

I probably will hold on to the stock and see where it goes.
I still await my pay out. If I dont get it... I am totally messed up...

UPDATE:
My five Dec 12.5 puts did kick in. If anything I should have bought alot more of them. basically spent $40... including costs. Each sold today @1.25. The January Put however didnt do a thing.

Another note. My scottrade acct is a discount broker. So, until HTX pays them out, i DO NOT get a cent of the divident in my account. A Scottrade rep told me it might be a FEW days because it is a Chinese company... (Hmmm more reason to short China later). Anyway, My full-service broker, Ameritrade acct paid out from their funds.

Learned much today. Confusion at first, but at least I have a profit

Watchlist Ideas FROM OTHERS

2008-12-02T19:59:00.003-10:00

TIM: Watch the Euro
- my watch on it FXE is about 52 wk low. All time low 118.
- He has also done well with DIG stock/calls

MAC: AXYS... reverse head and shoulders

FLY: short mostly China (i whole-heartedly agree, see my previous Asian soccer post) long a few 'things', look out for energy to get higher

GIO: watch the VIX... be alert to another bear day

I do like all these suggestions. I especially cant wait to cash out my dividend tomorrow and wait for another huge VIX reversal. The long term view of FXE is a possibility. I am looking at next years calls with a strike at the high of 160.

HTX ex-dividend pay out: Dec 3rd.

2008-12-02T03:05:00.002-10:00

Well, i have to wait another day. And i feel that today will be a huge day for bears if we gap up today at the open. Either way, i think we sell off at the closing of the day.

Of course, I hope for a rally tomorrow. So as to enter new puts.

This week of eco news has everything leaning for the bears. I am yet stuck another day with HTX until the pay out.

Sold AZK...Payout Awaits... Rally Hopes Diminish... One Long Idea

2008-12-01T20:03:00.004-10:00

SOLD AZK
I basically broke even or loss a little. But i knew the crash was coming today... :(

Payout HTX
Ok. So, tomorrow i better be seeing my accounts with a fresh batch of dividend cash. From there i will wait for any spike that comes our way OR panic buying of any sort.

RALLY
Like i said in a post a couple days ago, I hoped for a rally at least until the payout. Didnt happen. Thanks Mr. B. Anytime the FED talks we can expect this kind of reception.

LONG IDEA (THX TIM)
He likes UNG (natural gas), which makes much sense this time of the year. If anything it might be in its own bubble if it turns out to be a cold winter. If that happens, I sure hope people out there are ready to wear their heavy coats indoors (being that they have to save their money to pay off their debt or mortgages). But for now History says its time for Natural Gas to make its move

One more thought... OIL cracks <50 at the time of this post.
I think the bears are in for a big day tomorrow... Here is hoping (or wishing) for a gap up so as to fade and a closing crash tomorrow. Hopefully my funds will be available to participate, as i couldnt do so today.

So, that is officially two huge swings that I missed, options expiration Friday last week (huge rally) and today double inverse calls. Those were likely better pay outs than the HTX thing, but i cant look back. In the end I had less anxiety because of the approach taken.

What Will Happen To The Asian Markets? OH BTW, Notice Oil Dipping Again.

2008-12-01T01:16:00.003-10:00

Our pals in the orient, like most of the world will try to foresee things... (short or long term)... and miss badly. Frustrating yes, but entertaining if you are just watching.

OIL
At the time of this post. Oil is down a few bucks. That possible DUG call trade in a previous post is building merit. Either way my money remains 'stuck' in HTX until the pay out Dec 2nd.

This week looks like a bearish kind of week...

AHA! DUG watch... RIMM... Hopeful Rally... & HTX

2008-11-26T12:31:00.008-10:00

DUG
Its approaching its 52 wk low. Awesome. Regarding one can easily say that this is how oil trades to begin with... Oil goes up in late spring through summer and comes back down again. Its just that we had an extreme version this year. Sure I kinda agree with that. But know this that Mr. Obama is not an oil lover. Thus, I love DUG falling like a rock until Jan "something" when the dude gets in office. I hate politics otherwise.

RIMM... this is a heads up on next Q earnings. 'Put' it
The BlackBerry Storm is getting bad review after bad review. I like my BlackBerry (Pearl), so i am not a hater... This doesnt bode well for the stock. The Storm was suppose to stop switchers going over to the iPhone... The only ones buying the Storm are VZ people who have no choice. But from what I am reading, people bring it home and get tired of texting on the thing with its click screen. The OS/software hasnt adapted well away from the scroll ball navigation. I foresee BlackBerry spending more $ on ads (ala MSFT - VISTA). But bad product is just bad product. There are nice things about it, but its main feature the click screen will kill it... If you dont believe me, this one statement from one site says it all - "Vista got better reviews." or the NY Times says "I've got a better name for it: BlackBerry Dud." Wait for them puts next Q earnings report.

RALLY
Well, i do hope this rally carries to years end. It only sets up for a nice Bearish start of the new year.

HTX
It finally stop dropping so fast... It will eventually drop with the dividend pay out, thus my puts are in play. But i need some value left in the position to sell. So I continue to hope the Rally continues at least past the pay out.

Like I said yesterday... Landmines... I 'Kinda' Told You Look Out

2008-11-25T08:03:00.003-10:00

Boom... Bam... sorry rally oh wait... Bam...

Well, thats the kind of day i pictured today... So far its been this way. I was hoping for another follow through, but i knew the eco news this week would do some damage if not temper a runaway rally.

Well, it was the GDP that whacked the market. And yesterdays post has a list of what eco news to look at come tomorrow.

I sit on my HTX... yes they are in the red... but remember, i have puts that were waiting for this to happen.

Remember, all this up and down stuff doesnt matter, its where we close the day.

Landmines to Negate The Turkey Or Visa Versa

2008-11-24T20:15:00.002-10:00

My crazy scottrade acct left my order yesterday as AZK open, when it didnt get in yesterday. I really didnt want it to go through... oh well. Gold goes higher from here

Well, Home sales were down but that didnt stop the Rally

Tuesday: GDP & Consumer confidence are in play
Wednesday: Income, Jobless claims, New Home sales

I will learn to strategize from TIM, FLY, GIO, ChartSwing, StockBee. Going long this week despite the eco news seems to be what the street is leaning towards with history to back it up. Then again we havent had the kind of volatility in past markets so, who knows.

I am happy to sit with HTX stock and put protection to boot for now and wait for the dividend.

No real trades for me til Dec 2nd

You Probably Already Saw this Clip... Peter Schiff

2008-11-24T10:53:00.007-10:00

Peter Laffer... your are such a joke... I 'LAUGH' at you.
Tom Adkins you looked like an idiot that day - now you ARE an idiot.
Mike Norman... in answer to you: "NO, you dont know what you are talking about..." Now I am LAUGHING at YOU Mr. Norman.
Charles Payne... YOU are feeling the 'pain'. He chose WM!!! ha!!!
Unknown Female... just be happy your name wasnt on the screen.

The BEARS love you 5 idiots... My guess is we will see you again on any extended Rally.

Cavuto... you are suppose to be the moderate not lean in a direction. You are worse than ALL of CNBC. (But not worse than Cramer)

The only one that had class in those clips was Ben Stein. He wrote a NY Times piece apologized saying Mr. Schiff was right.

Enjoy this nice Bear rally. I am licking my chops to get back to puts once i get my HTX dividend.

Mr. Schiff predicted Gold... GLD... enough said, I will lie in wait.

I FORGOT TO MENTION... sold YHOO PUT on Friday... Stuff

2008-11-24T00:38:00.003-10:00

Well, its late but i am still unwinding form evening shift at work.

Anyway, i forgot to post that i sold out my YHOO puts for a 100% gain. AND i am wondering if i should have also sold my other NOC put too.

STUFF:
Anyway, I have a few puts out there (HTX, NOC) and some old calls (AAPL, POT, YHOO, PCX). If you notice, all of my calls are high flyers that move VERY fast on a rally. I know there is also RIMM, GOOG, BIDU... but RIMM might have some news from its newly released "Storm"... and GOOG/BIDU calls were just to pricey for my poor account.

I am vested in HTX and will likely not touch a thing with my positions. Although, I might sell that other NOC put after all. If we rally hard, there is no sense in keeping it... we'll see. Because i think next year we start the year with another drop off related to bad holiday sales.

My market gauge: FLY, TIM & GIO, CHARTswing you will have one thing in common. DO NOT SHORT. Expect a rally. I personally hope it doesnt go hard, just so i have a chance to participate once i get my HTX dividend.

Market opens in about 3 hours or so... I am going to bed.

Its the Weekend... Here is another reason i stopped really trying to play guitar

2008-11-21T21:45:00.004-10:00

one of my favorites. the musicians that back Satriani in this clip are very talented. Listen to the recorded version and compare it with the live one. The rhythm section is very well-known... Enjoy

Summary: FXI puts, NOC puts, HTX & AUY

2008-11-21T11:02:00.005-10:00

I tried to squeeze out as much profit from my FXI puts. I did ok, but i wish i sold the thing yesterday. It all still landed a 25%+ profit. And my exit was just before FXI buyers came in.

I also sold a put on NOC and left the other alone. It was one of those trades i didnt think would do much until next year. But hey $25 one week $125 the next... pretty sweet. Maybe i should have sold both... Too late. (Anyway, you now have an idea of how much my portfolio has turned poor because of bad management. It used to be a modest 5 figures for years - it is down to four)

I bought HTX with the proceeds.... just as it was breaking higher.
(I had THX puts in place since Tuesday to protect the stock).

And i sold AUY with the thought of buying even cheaper...AZK or a GLD call. But i ran out of time...

The point is that it pays to plan things out... this was my most thought out plan that actually worked (for now). And had i looked at GLD earlier, i would have got in. People are getting out of banks and back into Gold...

Those actual bars of metal that Tim bought were a good idea...

FYI, Brian... no more credit to you until i get my pay out. but thx...

SPECIAL TRADE: HTX.... DIVIDEND OF THE YEAR. SOLD a NOC put too...

2008-11-21T08:47:00.004-10:00

Props to Brian again...

So, you want a guaranteed return without volatility?

HTX... It must be bought before November 25th. Technically you have until Monday. But my guess is that this stock will actually get higher and the market might have a massive bounce next week.

If you dont already know, they are dishing out... GET THIS... $13.55(U.S.) per share!!!

And just to protect this position further I bought a few puts with the strike at the 52 wk low a few days ago. That way if (or when) this stock tanks (after the payout), i got my insurance built in (and possibly a profit as well).

Here is the catch... you must hold it into Dec 2/3 for the payout. And the thing is, we have ALOT of eco news next week that can give Bears mo'money (imagine the Dow <7000). So, its choosing between a sure thing with a nice payout OR 'potentially' quadrupling your portfolio. Its YOUR choice and YOUR risk.

NOC put...
Btw, my long put REALLY paid off. I wish i bought a ton of it... Bought the Noc put at .25 last week, sold it today for 1.25... and the thing is the stock is up from where i bought the put. Nice...

SOLD FXI puts (left one on a contingent stop)... FLU VIRUS... And a preview of a special trade...

2008-11-21T08:18:00.004-10:00

There is just too much risk to keep my FXI puts so i sold most of the few that i had today. It will pick a direction and it will happen fast. Unfortunately, for some they will have to wait for the close to see how this ends. I figured I would take my 28% profit (sigh... that profit was 64% yesterday). If my lone fxi goes ultra green sure i will be disappointed a bit. But if i end up losing the bank on it. That would be worse.

THE FLU VIRUS
I was basically sick yesterday, but not as bad as my wife. I was nearing a constant sore throat, but man there is this thing that actually shortens a cold and stops viruses from multiplying (thus, in this case the full blown Flu is basically stopped in its tracks). It is natural and from a special berry. cool stuff. Why... Because after what should have been about a weeks worth out of work for my wife has slimmed to 2 days. I told her to stay home today to make sure. And now she is cooking me breakfast. Pretty good huh.

THAT SPECIAL TRADE
Well, a clue to what this is related to is a huge dividend... Pay attention and I will let you in on it on the last hour... Special props to my friend Brian who shared this trade with me. Mind you... I want the best price for this so I am not saying a thing.

FAT BOUNCE COMING... I should go back to sleep.

2008-11-21T04:13:00.004-10:00

We (in Hawaii) have to suffer getting up before Rosters if we want to be fully involved in the market. I cant believe i am waking up for this... am i nuts? It looks like my puts will be smacked today. The Pre-Market shows FXP down 17%. Good thing my FXI is not a 2x ETF. The point is that the VIX told me to get out yesterday, and i didnt do it. Unfortunately, i now will be seeing for myself that a Vix 80 is indeed a reliable gauge to exit short/put (and just MAYBE go long... but OUT of short/put for sure).

I am thinking about just going back to sleep. No sense suffering through a bad day. the thing is i woke up in case the market gapped down at the open, if so... there was no more playing around up or down... it would have signaled a rally. But as we all know the Market never cooperates.

As for my bloggers gauge:
TIM: chances of a strong rally are good
FLY: well he went Long on Wednesday
GIO: DO NOT short here
MAC: We are now overstretched(due for a bounce) and maybe have one more bad day
Stockbee: quotes someone, 'we may get the mother of all bounces'

its too bad i could only assimilate this after the market had already closed. but what a way to learn. one more day of a return might also mean missing a bad day the next day. Lesson learned again here at Stucktrader. As I ingrain into my brain VIX 80.

UPDATE: I am going to sleep 40 minutes after the open... I have no reason to stay up now that i set my sell/alert triggers. I didnt want to be stopped out on volatility if a solid trend is eventually found)

Asia finished up... Is that real? Or a "Blue Dream"

2008-11-20T22:30:00.006-10:00

I used one of his mellow songs in my wedding reception. It was one of those details that probably only my wife, myself, guitar people (and the poor folks who sat near the speakers) noticed.

Anyway, Asia being up or down has never really affected the U.S. Market of late. Goes to show how this volatility has been a nightmare to some... and others hope its just a "dream" - enjoy watching the guy who proved i should stop wasting my time playing guitar.

2008-11-20T22:30:00.001-10:00

WOW AAPL at Pre-iPhone levels

2008-11-20T11:19:00.003-10:00

I bagged 5 figure coin on AAPL options on the release of the iPhone in Jan 2007 MacWorld. Unfortunately i lost almost all of it back to the market... as you know i am only making a comeback because of old puts that came to life and thus gave me some $$$ to get back and be a bear.

AAPL is not a stock that i recommend anyone owning. But the calls are insanely cheap if you wait for LEAPS that will be released into 2012 or more added to 2011. Apple has no choice but to eventually taper the price down And forget these exclusive contracts with AT&T, because they would essentially rule the U.S. if they were with Verizon & T-Mobile. That being said, I see this stock going to 50... if nothing cool comes out MacWorld '09. 50 is a buy level... into a LEAP. I know a few people that lose HUGE bucks to AAPL. I love the company, products, etc. But i hate the stock (for now).

Anyway, i caught a cold or flu from my wife and am fighting it off with non-OTC drugs that only masks symptoms. The drug companies keep fleecing us without curing anything. Outside of the ICU and Asthma attack related drugs, I thing drug companies belong in the same catagory with the BSC, LEH, FNM, FRE, AIG, GM, F of the world.

I have one trade to tell all of you soon... You will thank me later... I will in advance give props to Brian. Nothing secretive, but price sensitive. As you know i have little left in this market to make a sizable dent.

RIMMs New STORM (not Bold)... FXI will be up today?... The Big 3 compromise

2008-11-20T07:43:00.008-10:00

The newest Blackberry doesnt affect me as i refuse to be on Verizonz network. They are sim' less. In other words, they lock their features and sometimes stunt the features that are built on the phone itself.

Now that i got that negative disclaimer out of the way. Reading the reviews of the new Storm have been like the market - a downer. Mind you its not a crash. Descriptions such as big, heavy, confusing, and here is my favorite "the worse of both worlds" in regards to its mechanical touch screen. This does not bode well for RIMM. I will say if there is any positive news that spikes the stock i will buy a long term put on it.

FXI
I knew i shoulda sold this thing yesterday. But you know, as I said yesterday, the nice thing with FXI is that it may not reward you like other ETFs but it surely wont kill you either. Anyway, there are some buyers today and some positive intraday news. But its now how the day starts, its how it ends... its been that way everyday... not sure if today is one of them. I continue to hold FXI.

The BIG 3 Crybabies
Well, looks like some ground is being gained by the Big 3. I will say this would be my compromise to them. All the executives take a gigantic pay cut... i mean no one gets paid more than 200K. How would you feel about that? No stock options, no "fired" pay, nothing... The laborers are the victims (altho their unions may have made some of them lazy). The thing is, how is it that Hondas and Korean cars (i hate their car quality) have factories set up here that do well? Its the design stupid!!! Even if the Korean cars and more so that Hyundai logo annoy me (a cheap copy of Honda), some of their designs are just nice to look at. Korean cars used to be really ugly, but they figured out how to make them less ugly than american cars...

The Big 3 Crybabies. Oh, Finally FXI moves with the Market

2008-11-19T11:10:00.003-10:00

Big 3 CRYBABIES
Well, I cant stand the Big 3 Automakers. You know, it WASNT TOTALLY their fault that oil WAS at an all time high leading to their SUV minded demise. Nor was it their fault that those that back up financing for the people buying cars were busier lying in the governments face in how more $$$ would help their liquidity.

But in the end it IS their fault that they build some of the ugliest cars in the world. I had a conversation with someone long before this debacle. Outside of their high end stuff have you noticed the designs of their mainstream vehicles? It seemed like Dodge was going in the right direction early 2000, but have you noticed how the grills of their vehicles look like darth vader? Or have you seen how their once leading Mini-Van, looks like a 70's Van... just a van! Then you got Chevy, hey can you make your ugly logo even bigger? Why not just build a car in the shape of your logo... And finally Ford, i have to strain my brain to think of any vehicle that isnt a mustang or an F-150... in other words, nothing strikes me...

They have so many different models... For what? Look, I have never owned an American car. Or at least one with an American Logo (Hondas are actually build here!). Hondas are American built... (and now so are the Korean cars). They each have one simple car to handle a particular market. But the key ingredient is that each of them dont embarrass the driver (well maybe the Honda Ridgeline Trucks still stink cause they too are ugly). OK... enough of my ranting...

FXI
Jee, thanks for finally moving with the market... I was hoping to sell here but didnt do it on time. Mind you, i still think the Dow goes lower. All this Rallying is on LOW volume. I wish i had SOHU puts or dream i had BIDU puts a week ago. FXI just doesnt reward you very well, but in a volitile market wont cut you to pieces. So, I have no choice but to hold another day.

FOMC awaits @ 2pm EST... Question is what happens...

2008-11-19T04:11:00.000-10:00

Can we think of any more bad news... and if FOMC show stuff we already know is that a good thing?

Anyway, todays CPI was worse than expected, but the Housing starts better than expected. Pretty much sums up the relatively flat market we have been experiencing the last few sessions in terms of the closing numbers.

But if you are a brave day trader, well... you will either make a bundle or be smacked.

15 minutes to the open... sure Asia got whacked a bit, but it hasnt meant too much to the U.S. market.