Anyway, i will be honest... i am just trying to pay down all my debt... but another play that has come to my attention all based on the hypothesis that the iPhone will end it's exclusivity with AT&T...
AT&T(T) option puts... 2012...
3 things going for this trade:
1. VZ is a matter of when not if...
2. Apple will not allow Androids to dominate the U.S.
3. Even if AT&T does ok after the iPhone leaves... you still have the overall market that can spiral downward...
Anyway, if i free up some $... that's what i will do.
If you got in on my last post your .17 is now worth >.53 or >.80... i didn't tag which LEAP i would have played.
oh and yes VZ leaps are still good, but once news comes out of the actual iPhone on their network, then taper off and go with T puts instead.
It's your money not mine... so don't blame me if it doesn't work. I do have lawyers.
Monday, November 15, 2010
Monday, July 19, 2010
Another PLAY... VZ WILL GET THE iPhone...
Looking at 2012 LEAPS calls 40@.17. Yes, cheap to be sure... thus low risk, but high potential for return.
Apple is only held back in the U.S. by AT&T. Once the exclusive is removed, like every other country, RIMM will be first to go down... Android will be the only viable platform. Non-smartphones will be the battleground that Nokia will continue to own with Samsung being around.
I do not plan to get in until after this Holiday season. We shall see how far this market sinks this fall.
I figured i'd blog something... but direct buying of AAPL options will only be bought if VZ is confirmed, otherwise VZ calls will be the speculative buy...LATER...
Miami's big 3... may have to battle getting out of the East. Celtics have one more year, Orlando still has Dwight (this was the team Lebron should have targeted ala Shaq/Kobe, Kareem/Magic), anyway Chicago also looks scary: they finally brought in a shooter and another rebounder in Boozer.
In the end, no doubt they "3-me's" will get their title(s). But now they will have a target on them EVEN LARGER than the Lakers.
The irony of all this is that things actually got easier for the Lakers with bunch of stars moving East. The West still has Dallas, Portland, Denver, and OKC... But the days of handing Lebron the MVP because of stats are OVER. Wade may never get one now. It's Kobe, Durant, or some PG.
Apple is only held back in the U.S. by AT&T. Once the exclusive is removed, like every other country, RIMM will be first to go down... Android will be the only viable platform. Non-smartphones will be the battleground that Nokia will continue to own with Samsung being around.
I do not plan to get in until after this Holiday season. We shall see how far this market sinks this fall.
I figured i'd blog something... but direct buying of AAPL options will only be bought if VZ is confirmed, otherwise VZ calls will be the speculative buy...LATER...
Miami's big 3... may have to battle getting out of the East. Celtics have one more year, Orlando still has Dwight (this was the team Lebron should have targeted ala Shaq/Kobe, Kareem/Magic), anyway Chicago also looks scary: they finally brought in a shooter and another rebounder in Boozer.
In the end, no doubt they "3-me's" will get their title(s). But now they will have a target on them EVEN LARGER than the Lakers.
The irony of all this is that things actually got easier for the Lakers with bunch of stars moving East. The West still has Dallas, Portland, Denver, and OKC... But the days of handing Lebron the MVP because of stats are OVER. Wade may never get one now. It's Kobe, Durant, or some PG.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
I'm still here... and am SHOCKED that certain options are still green
well, it's amazing to see the bottom feeders popping up again...
the July 320 call versus my original buy is actually still green... how is that possible? i mean did u see what happen to AAPL's stock? it nose dived 50 points!!! 50 points!!! it was like 2000 tech bubble crash all over again... and then it snaps back 40 points... IN JUST A MATTER OF 20 MINUTES close down 'only' about 10... Goldman... have you been buying?
Anyway, it would be a good time to travel to Europe this coming year... $1 vs EU 1.27 or .79 Eu vs. $1... it's the best i've seen since April 2009...
Well, APPLE the company should do ok regarding the number of iPad units going out the door. Not to mention the next iPhone, iMacs, i-something... i personally think iAds will be huge. possibly bigger than the App Store (which you can check on this blog) that i formerly thought would be the biggest thing for Apple in terms of revenue. The App store as it turns out has continued to differentiate itself from other WebStore/App fronts.
Bed time... oh, i predict much Bottom feeders a plenty if not tomorrow, next week... we'll see...
the July 320 call versus my original buy is actually still green... how is that possible? i mean did u see what happen to AAPL's stock? it nose dived 50 points!!! 50 points!!! it was like 2000 tech bubble crash all over again... and then it snaps back 40 points... IN JUST A MATTER OF 20 MINUTES close down 'only' about 10... Goldman... have you been buying?
Anyway, it would be a good time to travel to Europe this coming year... $1 vs EU 1.27 or .79 Eu vs. $1... it's the best i've seen since April 2009...
Well, APPLE the company should do ok regarding the number of iPad units going out the door. Not to mention the next iPhone, iMacs, i-something... i personally think iAds will be huge. possibly bigger than the App Store (which you can check on this blog) that i formerly thought would be the biggest thing for Apple in terms of revenue. The App store as it turns out has continued to differentiate itself from other WebStore/App fronts.
Bed time... oh, i predict much Bottom feeders a plenty if not tomorrow, next week... we'll see...
Monday, February 8, 2010
Replying to my commenter...
While i will say that it may seem that OTM options can be viewed as 'sucker' bets... had i went along with my plan B and went with OTM put options... guess what... 1000% gain in 3 days... unfortunately, i speculated (if that word works here) the wrong way...
so, as it goes. my sell signal (that i carelessly didnt pay attention to) was the day the iPad was released. AAPL didnt break 115 thus, that was a signal to get out of it. Unfortunately, i was careless enough not to schedule a sell and cut my loses.
But as i readily posted... i was willing to take a loss on this one... knowing that i have some other investments (bonds in particular) maturing this year. i needed either a home run or a minor loss...
AND i do have shorts in play... just fyi. but thanks for your comment.
As it stands, the iPad should do well enough come the holiday season... IF the whole market keeps this fake rally going. if there is one piece of news that would cause AAPL to shoot up would be a partnership with VZ
so, as it goes. my sell signal (that i carelessly didnt pay attention to) was the day the iPad was released. AAPL didnt break 115 thus, that was a signal to get out of it. Unfortunately, i was careless enough not to schedule a sell and cut my loses.
But as i readily posted... i was willing to take a loss on this one... knowing that i have some other investments (bonds in particular) maturing this year. i needed either a home run or a minor loss...
AND i do have shorts in play... just fyi. but thanks for your comment.
As it stands, the iPad should do well enough come the holiday season... IF the whole market keeps this fake rally going. if there is one piece of news that would cause AAPL to shoot up would be a partnership with VZ
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Laziness stinks...
Well, the one thing i forgot to do was set a sell on my options...
The thing is its been some time since i have done this thing... My wife's voice continues to ring in my ear, "maybe you shouldn't do options..."
If anything i should have gone with an AAPL put as well... or at least my favorite, FXP CALLS.
The thing is its been some time since i have done this thing... My wife's voice continues to ring in my ear, "maybe you shouldn't do options..."
If anything i should have gone with an AAPL put as well... or at least my favorite, FXP CALLS.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Like i said... Blow whats left
Did i see a sell off coming... sure...
That's AAPL... buy on hype, sell on news... unfortunately i didn't buy any put insurance. I have lost on both ends again and was determined to go with the stock going forward.
My Mar call has been bought @.40 is currently worth .25
My July call bought @.9 is currently worth .50
Its no wonder my wife tells me a last night... "I think you should just do stocks - Options are too risky." Hmm the market sure made a point...
I hate to say it... Cramer was right on this one...
He said to be ready to buy when the sell off happens post Tablet news... but go long from there...
In any case... this $ has been collecting dust.
It seems as tho i will have to wait for the iPad to actually start selling to get any traction on my options. My March call seems outright dead... July holds out hope and now a January call is entirely possible... but the puts are out of my range.
Stuck again...
That's AAPL... buy on hype, sell on news... unfortunately i didn't buy any put insurance. I have lost on both ends again and was determined to go with the stock going forward.
My Mar call has been bought @.40 is currently worth .25
My July call bought @.9 is currently worth .50
Its no wonder my wife tells me a last night... "I think you should just do stocks - Options are too risky." Hmm the market sure made a point...
I hate to say it... Cramer was right on this one...
He said to be ready to buy when the sell off happens post Tablet news... but go long from there...
In any case... this $ has been collecting dust.
It seems as tho i will have to wait for the iPad to actually start selling to get any traction on my options. My March call seems outright dead... July holds out hope and now a January call is entirely possible... but the puts are out of my range.
Stuck again...
Monday, January 25, 2010
I AM BACK IN... blowing up what's left... in AAPL options
I feel 'wordy'...
Well, i have been away from Trading... missing the huge bear rally... but when you get the snot knocked out of you so many times going long/short and both... you just stop and say where else am i losing money...
Paid off a couple loans since being away... So, that plan worked.
Today, i am finally getting back in by way of AAPL options.
So bought out of the money calls: AAPL Mar 270 @.4 AND July 320 @ .90.
I thought, well (even though i expect another crash as soon as march), common this is one of those Quarters and possible news a couple days later that can pump some real $$$$$$ into this stock. I might as well make my $ work for me and write off the loses later. I am not expecting much as this is a speculative trade based on the following:
1. QUARTERLY REPORT:
A. Possible surprise on iMac sales for Holiday Q
- they cant keep the 27 inch in stock (despite flicker problems)
B. Possible surprise on iPhone sales
- this past Q includes China and more non-exclusive carriers
C. Possible surprise news on anything else during press release
- Streaming and Ad companies were bought insight
2. POSSIBLE TABLET/iPhone EVENT:
A. Obviously a Tablet that will blow us away at a good price
- AAPL shot up $10 in about <2 days. I think news here might top it
B. Possible Verizon (and any other carrier) working with Apple
- lead some to speculate on the iPhone on VZ being an eventuality
- a VZ deal to some could be bigger than the Tablet.
C. Subscriptions being an option
- that is what Switchers always complain about
Anyway, i thought about going with RIMM/PALM puts as well but hey RIMM is prepared to to provide a rebuttal press releases... and PALM will likely be bought out anyway. I dont get how RIMM and MSFT dont bother to buy out PALM and their patents.
In the end, AAPL was what made me interested in stocks in the first place. Made much going with them (and loss when i started doing options *sigh*). So, I think it was an appropriate moment to go with the one company that really is far ahead of its competitors. I would say, if Apple didnt have to depend on Intel chips... no one would have any idea what Apple is doing - being that their has to be some type of leaks to their other OEMs or at least accurate guessing. And if Google's CEO wasnt on Apple's board, i think Android (and thus any competition) would be there for the iPhone.
So, i basically have everything left in my poor trading account going into AAPL. I will probably make a deposit to this account in a couple weeks... as i said before, there is a crash coming... just have no idea when its happening. But my Bear watchlist includes: FXP, SDS, SKF, SRF, and anything new i find that wraps the whole market on the short side.
Anyway, i am prepared to write off whatever i lose on these trades.
As much as AAPL could skyrocket, it can also drop off a cliff.
Well, i have been away from Trading... missing the huge bear rally... but when you get the snot knocked out of you so many times going long/short and both... you just stop and say where else am i losing money...
Paid off a couple loans since being away... So, that plan worked.
Today, i am finally getting back in by way of AAPL options.
So bought out of the money calls: AAPL Mar 270 @.4 AND July 320 @ .90.
I thought, well (even though i expect another crash as soon as march), common this is one of those Quarters and possible news a couple days later that can pump some real $$$$$$ into this stock. I might as well make my $ work for me and write off the loses later. I am not expecting much as this is a speculative trade based on the following:
1. QUARTERLY REPORT:
A. Possible surprise on iMac sales for Holiday Q
- they cant keep the 27 inch in stock (despite flicker problems)
B. Possible surprise on iPhone sales
- this past Q includes China and more non-exclusive carriers
C. Possible surprise news on anything else during press release
- Streaming and Ad companies were bought insight
2. POSSIBLE TABLET/iPhone EVENT:
A. Obviously a Tablet that will blow us away at a good price
- AAPL shot up $10 in about <2 days. I think news here might top it
B. Possible Verizon (and any other carrier) working with Apple
- lead some to speculate on the iPhone on VZ being an eventuality
- a VZ deal to some could be bigger than the Tablet.
C. Subscriptions being an option
- that is what Switchers always complain about
Anyway, i thought about going with RIMM/PALM puts as well but hey RIMM is prepared to to provide a rebuttal press releases... and PALM will likely be bought out anyway. I dont get how RIMM and MSFT dont bother to buy out PALM and their patents.
In the end, AAPL was what made me interested in stocks in the first place. Made much going with them (and loss when i started doing options *sigh*). So, I think it was an appropriate moment to go with the one company that really is far ahead of its competitors. I would say, if Apple didnt have to depend on Intel chips... no one would have any idea what Apple is doing - being that their has to be some type of leaks to their other OEMs or at least accurate guessing. And if Google's CEO wasnt on Apple's board, i think Android (and thus any competition) would be there for the iPhone.
So, i basically have everything left in my poor trading account going into AAPL. I will probably make a deposit to this account in a couple weeks... as i said before, there is a crash coming... just have no idea when its happening. But my Bear watchlist includes: FXP, SDS, SKF, SRF, and anything new i find that wraps the whole market on the short side.
Anyway, i am prepared to write off whatever i lose on these trades.
As much as AAPL could skyrocket, it can also drop off a cliff.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Friday, September 11, 2009
Finally, what the combination smartphone that I have been talking about
Motorola finally figured out that they should give Android some love.
Android needs a phone maker that has design expertise and the ability to produce a sleek phone while incorporating the O.S.
Check it out
anyway, the iPhone is still hands down the best... i already believe that Apple has a successor to the iPhone 3GS... if you studied their product roadmaps regarding the iPods, you will notice just enough 'new' features and enhancements at either the same or slightly lower price points... Apple probably already has a 'super' smartphone - but why release it when the competition is still catching up to the original iPhone 3G or even in some cases the original iPhone.
But as long as AT&T is in the mix... i refuse to jump ship. i mean common, $30 data plan?
By the way... it looks like DUG will have difficulty as long as the $U.S. keeps sinking. thus, i do believe that FXP, SKF is a better. The unemployment mixed with inflation... big time trouble awaits. the crash may not be as quick as the Fall 2008, but it will be pretty close... and likely BIGGER...
Android needs a phone maker that has design expertise and the ability to produce a sleek phone while incorporating the O.S.
Check it out
anyway, the iPhone is still hands down the best... i already believe that Apple has a successor to the iPhone 3GS... if you studied their product roadmaps regarding the iPods, you will notice just enough 'new' features and enhancements at either the same or slightly lower price points... Apple probably already has a 'super' smartphone - but why release it when the competition is still catching up to the original iPhone 3G or even in some cases the original iPhone.
But as long as AT&T is in the mix... i refuse to jump ship. i mean common, $30 data plan?
By the way... it looks like DUG will have difficulty as long as the $U.S. keeps sinking. thus, i do believe that FXP, SKF is a better. The unemployment mixed with inflation... big time trouble awaits. the crash may not be as quick as the Fall 2008, but it will be pretty close... and likely BIGGER...
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Consumer confidence... propanganda'd up...
Consumers are finding confidence in continuing to spend. Granted it seems finally common sense has entered the picture.
Yet we see these incredible deals when it comes to starting a new credit card...
Look this economy is not in reality getting better. Its true that the bear crashes of the last year and half or so were over-reaction, but reflect the fact that there are tons of people out there with no jobs... homeless... collecting from a govt that is broke.
In Hawaii, 1 of 11... collect food stamps... WHAT? yes 1 of every 11 persons supposedly collect food stamps in Hawaii. That is just another example where the govt is already trying to increase taxes to make up for lost income... but the conundrum(spelling?) is that citizens are using more govt resources than ever before. Somethings gotta give.
Now its not like i like seeing a bunch of homeless/jobless people around. There are people who lost pretty well paying jobs and have 3 kids, a mortgage and car payments.
In the end.. I continue to keep my life simple... and pay of debt as quickly as i can without cutting into having a 'normal' life.
DUG/FXP are still on the radar. it briefly played with trying to fall below 15 today. Nope... The oil rally may at the very least be sputtering. I have a few $ to get some long calls on DUG. S&P may very well get to 1300... but beyond that? i really doubt it. So, i am happy for the slow crawl on this rally. just to allow me more time to be a fool and jump back in the market with the few $.
Yet we see these incredible deals when it comes to starting a new credit card...
Look this economy is not in reality getting better. Its true that the bear crashes of the last year and half or so were over-reaction, but reflect the fact that there are tons of people out there with no jobs... homeless... collecting from a govt that is broke.
In Hawaii, 1 of 11... collect food stamps... WHAT? yes 1 of every 11 persons supposedly collect food stamps in Hawaii. That is just another example where the govt is already trying to increase taxes to make up for lost income... but the conundrum(spelling?) is that citizens are using more govt resources than ever before. Somethings gotta give.
Now its not like i like seeing a bunch of homeless/jobless people around. There are people who lost pretty well paying jobs and have 3 kids, a mortgage and car payments.
In the end.. I continue to keep my life simple... and pay of debt as quickly as i can without cutting into having a 'normal' life.
DUG/FXP are still on the radar. it briefly played with trying to fall below 15 today. Nope... The oil rally may at the very least be sputtering. I have a few $ to get some long calls on DUG. S&P may very well get to 1300... but beyond that? i really doubt it. So, i am happy for the slow crawl on this rally. just to allow me more time to be a fool and jump back in the market with the few $.
Friday, August 21, 2009
Ahhh...
Another day... another bear rally... another "we are close to getting out of the recession" speech...
well, i officially will have another loan paid off before months end.
DUG as i have been pushing just dipped below 16. I wish i had $ to buy some... but hey i am in no rush.
A buddy of mine is busy making coin... follow him at ibankcoin.com/gioblog.
I have neither the discipline nor the attention span to keep up with him.
Anyway, my wife found a few old papers... among them my original purchase of AAPL @20.14 sometime in 1998. of course my history of trying to make up for the fact that i didnt understand how much more $ i could have made from 2004 to Jan 2006 using options. Thus, i sold off my precious shares to enter option calls instead. And... there was my ultimate failure. Entering a trade(s) that i didnt fully understand. Some of this was Greed(who wouldnt want to semi-retirement) and some was just plain finding a fast way to pay off a few loans after getting married, her school loans and my dumb credit loan i thought i could use to leverage a trade. At least the ring/wedding/honeymoon were all paid off this year.
In the end, i still made thousands... and lost them as well. And as this market has taught me... there really is no rush to get back in until i clear up whatever loans we have. that right there will save me a hundred or so alone per month. So, there you go. Preservation...
And I still believe we have another bear window nearing (thus my love for DUG/FXP etc). You cant convince me that unemployment going forward will improve... (of course they could if these people would humble themselves and take lower paying jobs).
This was a long-winded blog. figured i get it all out. hey maybe DUG can get under $15 (52 wk low was $15)! Again if i only had free capital. The one bull stock? *sigh* AAPL. The one bull sector? alternative energy (one day this Obama friendly sector will be back... for now oil still rules)
well, i officially will have another loan paid off before months end.
DUG as i have been pushing just dipped below 16. I wish i had $ to buy some... but hey i am in no rush.
A buddy of mine is busy making coin... follow him at ibankcoin.com/gioblog.
I have neither the discipline nor the attention span to keep up with him.
Anyway, my wife found a few old papers... among them my original purchase of AAPL @20.14 sometime in 1998. of course my history of trying to make up for the fact that i didnt understand how much more $ i could have made from 2004 to Jan 2006 using options. Thus, i sold off my precious shares to enter option calls instead. And... there was my ultimate failure. Entering a trade(s) that i didnt fully understand. Some of this was Greed(who wouldnt want to semi-retirement) and some was just plain finding a fast way to pay off a few loans after getting married, her school loans and my dumb credit loan i thought i could use to leverage a trade. At least the ring/wedding/honeymoon were all paid off this year.
In the end, i still made thousands... and lost them as well. And as this market has taught me... there really is no rush to get back in until i clear up whatever loans we have. that right there will save me a hundred or so alone per month. So, there you go. Preservation...
And I still believe we have another bear window nearing (thus my love for DUG/FXP etc). You cant convince me that unemployment going forward will improve... (of course they could if these people would humble themselves and take lower paying jobs).
This was a long-winded blog. figured i get it all out. hey maybe DUG can get under $15 (52 wk low was $15)! Again if i only had free capital. The one bull stock? *sigh* AAPL. The one bull sector? alternative energy (one day this Obama friendly sector will be back... for now oil still rules)
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Hilarious...
Well, u know i been pushing DUG. But the entry i was originally looking for is <16.
As you see in my last post... i thought maybe 16 was the entry... Maybe it still is? For me, i thought with Asia getting whacked - that DUG would have been sky high (sans the oil surprise supply report). The funny thing is what that report tells me is that Americans are still in denial...
No longer is there panic, but just the mentality that - o.k. if cash for clunkers, printing $US AND bail outs(now via private sector) are continuing... why should i worry.
So, anyway... while i sit back and pay off whatever debts that my wife and i have, i am totally amused how this Market is messing with the minds of bunch of traders.
Again... i am in no rush... this pinball market will still be there when i am ready.
Enjoy the see-saw...
Of course for those of you benefiting from playing both sides, you should be up mightily from the last few days alone.
As you see in my last post... i thought maybe 16 was the entry... Maybe it still is? For me, i thought with Asia getting whacked - that DUG would have been sky high (sans the oil surprise supply report). The funny thing is what that report tells me is that Americans are still in denial...
No longer is there panic, but just the mentality that - o.k. if cash for clunkers, printing $US AND bail outs(now via private sector) are continuing... why should i worry.
So, anyway... while i sit back and pay off whatever debts that my wife and i have, i am totally amused how this Market is messing with the minds of bunch of traders.
Again... i am in no rush... this pinball market will still be there when i am ready.
Enjoy the see-saw...
Of course for those of you benefiting from playing both sides, you should be up mightily from the last few days alone.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Wish you bought DUG huh... or any short...
Well, you can think of this a couple ways regarding oil... being that it is seasonal. However, you will have to pay close attention to those hurricanes.
DUG was a buy @$16-ish
Now those monthly oil/energy trusts look mighty cheap... AAV, HTE, etc... i am not sure how much longer they can make the monthly payouts, but if you wanted a 1st entry... you got it today.
I just see some see-sawing for now. But WE ALL KNOW, that the bottom will fall out from under us again... when? who knows. i am just plugging along paying off debt.
The Market will always be there... and so will the opportunities. But if i want a guaranteed way of making $$$$... well, i best start with cutting ALL loses... no more paying loan interests... a few hundred in cutting costs goes a long way in this economy. And why not make my credit score look better. After all, i may need another loan in the future... not what i want necessarily - just being ready it comes.
DUG...
DUG was a buy @$16-ish
Now those monthly oil/energy trusts look mighty cheap... AAV, HTE, etc... i am not sure how much longer they can make the monthly payouts, but if you wanted a 1st entry... you got it today.
I just see some see-sawing for now. But WE ALL KNOW, that the bottom will fall out from under us again... when? who knows. i am just plugging along paying off debt.
The Market will always be there... and so will the opportunities. But if i want a guaranteed way of making $$$$... well, i best start with cutting ALL loses... no more paying loan interests... a few hundred in cutting costs goes a long way in this economy. And why not make my credit score look better. After all, i may need another loan in the future... not what i want necessarily - just being ready it comes.
DUG...
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Well... The Wait Continues...
I really dont mind waiting being that i have no free $$$$ to invest. I am busy paying off debt as fast as i can... without working too much at my stressful REAL job.
In any case, i am already wanting to get off the rock again... Why? Well, my 2 1/2 days in Paris wasn't very relaxing - my wife and i were rushing from Musuem to landmark and at times didn't have as much time to enjoy dinner. Either way, Paris is possibe some time next year. I hope the next crash happens (sorry 401K holders), and that way cheap air fares, hotels at 50% off and a better exchange rate.
My wife thinks i should have gotten enough of Europe - she wants me to experience Asia. Speaking of which... i do think they (China that is), is due for some trouble.
It just feels like the unemployment really hasnt hit this country yet. These banks reporting profits are basically reporting whatever little $ they are making after the U.S. tax payer has been paying off THEIR bills.
The charts show we still have some gains left in this bear rally. that 1050 on the S&P is still plausible... if anything, a big move awaits. And the only one I really like has seasonal history and charts showing that some buying action is picking up... in DUG. I would like it under 15. Of course, the charts show it has bounced off 15 a few timnes. In the end, I really have no idea where this market is going for the rest of 2009.
In any case, i am already wanting to get off the rock again... Why? Well, my 2 1/2 days in Paris wasn't very relaxing - my wife and i were rushing from Musuem to landmark and at times didn't have as much time to enjoy dinner. Either way, Paris is possibe some time next year. I hope the next crash happens (sorry 401K holders), and that way cheap air fares, hotels at 50% off and a better exchange rate.
My wife thinks i should have gotten enough of Europe - she wants me to experience Asia. Speaking of which... i do think they (China that is), is due for some trouble.
It just feels like the unemployment really hasnt hit this country yet. These banks reporting profits are basically reporting whatever little $ they are making after the U.S. tax payer has been paying off THEIR bills.
The charts show we still have some gains left in this bear rally. that 1050 on the S&P is still plausible... if anything, a big move awaits. And the only one I really like has seasonal history and charts showing that some buying action is picking up... in DUG. I would like it under 15. Of course, the charts show it has bounced off 15 a few timnes. In the end, I really have no idea where this market is going for the rest of 2009.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
I'm BAAAACK... But will I really get back in..
Well, i decided a couple of days ago to see what that AAPL - China Unicom would do for our NDX... nothing...
Today, MSFT - YHOO deal... nothing...
Looked at a seasonal pick... DUG... as summer break is basically over. it's bounced off 15s solidly... and today broke 17. Much of it has to do with the dollar of course.
I am looking at FXP & DUG.. SKF... you know the big bears are back. I still have FAZ in my pocket portfolio. which is almost worthless. In any case, I was looking at option calls on FXP/DUG/SKF. But as you know this bear rally feels like it has one last gasp before things get suicidal (not for me of course)...
I have basically been paying off debt... plus i just got back from Europe July 16. So, i obviously had no care regarding the market.
I still see the S&P trying to get to 1000 (the Fib exists in the 985/1050 range). And many are pointing to 10K on the Dow. Me thinks not...
Anyway, I am back... a richer for cutting down my finance charges... but poorer for the year for getting swindled in this market... Am I a sucker if I come back to it with my limited time and limited patience?
Today, MSFT - YHOO deal... nothing...
Looked at a seasonal pick... DUG... as summer break is basically over. it's bounced off 15s solidly... and today broke 17. Much of it has to do with the dollar of course.
I am looking at FXP & DUG.. SKF... you know the big bears are back. I still have FAZ in my pocket portfolio. which is almost worthless. In any case, I was looking at option calls on FXP/DUG/SKF. But as you know this bear rally feels like it has one last gasp before things get suicidal (not for me of course)...
I have basically been paying off debt... plus i just got back from Europe July 16. So, i obviously had no care regarding the market.
I still see the S&P trying to get to 1000 (the Fib exists in the 985/1050 range). And many are pointing to 10K on the Dow. Me thinks not...
Anyway, I am back... a richer for cutting down my finance charges... but poorer for the year for getting swindled in this market... Am I a sucker if I come back to it with my limited time and limited patience?
Monday, June 15, 2009
*Sigh* The Market Continues to be Manipulated
Well... Reports surface that Apples new iPhone G3-S, pre-order units sold out! But as you know the market is down today. Dont get me wrong i totally want my bear position to get back in play...
I do foresee (like many others), that Apple will open up the iPhone to Verizon at the very least. They have the leverage to prove that the iPhone will retain customers. They can always threaten to remove the phone from any carrier if they dont comply in some way.
Apple also finally dropped prices across the board for their laptops. That gives you a HUGE indication of where they think this economy is going in the next few months/quarters. I hope they do the same for the desktops as well. (I want to buy my wife an iMac and hopefully a cheaper 24 inch will lead to covering the cost of VMware Fusion - *sigh* Windows still required)
Anyway, i have a sleeping put that will expire in July...hopefully it catches fire by then. It acts more as an insurance policy in that portfolio. I still have FAZ sitting around as well in another portfolio. So... thats it...
Europe awaits in about 3 weeks... so who cares what happens to the market while i am away...
I do foresee (like many others), that Apple will open up the iPhone to Verizon at the very least. They have the leverage to prove that the iPhone will retain customers. They can always threaten to remove the phone from any carrier if they dont comply in some way.
Apple also finally dropped prices across the board for their laptops. That gives you a HUGE indication of where they think this economy is going in the next few months/quarters. I hope they do the same for the desktops as well. (I want to buy my wife an iMac and hopefully a cheaper 24 inch will lead to covering the cost of VMware Fusion - *sigh* Windows still required)
Anyway, i have a sleeping put that will expire in July...hopefully it catches fire by then. It acts more as an insurance policy in that portfolio. I still have FAZ sitting around as well in another portfolio. So... thats it...
Europe awaits in about 3 weeks... so who cares what happens to the market while i am away...
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
MSFT... xBOX...PROJECT NATAL Impressive...
MSFT finally has something "Apple-ish".
They weren't the first to develop the "Minority Report-like" interface... But the demo was very impressive. Sony had something similar called "eye-toy". But several observers have mentioned that Natal is more comprehensive and incorporates voice command.
The fact is there was are still questions:
1) nothing about how much this upgrade or addition to an existing xBox will cost
2) the SDK is still in the works
However, MSFT was right to present this now... it doesn't seem like the Vaporware of the past. The thing is this Natal thing MUST be accurate for gameplay.
In the end, MSFT doesn't hold a patent on this, although they seem ahead of the competition, as was evident by their apparently surprising the rest of the gaming world. So, we shall see how quickly the competition moves to catch or surpass what MSFT is offering.
And the rumors of Apple releasing a gaming device? Sorry to disappoint, but I think it is basically the iPod touch. But knowing how Apple works it's R&D they too could blow us away soon at the WWDC next week.
S&P still on course to 1100.
They weren't the first to develop the "Minority Report-like" interface... But the demo was very impressive. Sony had something similar called "eye-toy". But several observers have mentioned that Natal is more comprehensive and incorporates voice command.
The fact is there was are still questions:
1) nothing about how much this upgrade or addition to an existing xBox will cost
2) the SDK is still in the works
However, MSFT was right to present this now... it doesn't seem like the Vaporware of the past. The thing is this Natal thing MUST be accurate for gameplay.
In the end, MSFT doesn't hold a patent on this, although they seem ahead of the competition, as was evident by their apparently surprising the rest of the gaming world. So, we shall see how quickly the competition moves to catch or surpass what MSFT is offering.
And the rumors of Apple releasing a gaming device? Sorry to disappoint, but I think it is basically the iPod touch. But knowing how Apple works it's R&D they too could blow us away soon at the WWDC next week.
S&P still on course to 1100.
Bears lie in wait... S&P continues toward 1100
Well, I have no position worth mentioning except my short position that awaits another crash. However, it seems as though this will not happen until the fall.
if it happens earlier... fine. If not, I am waiting with some cash sitting cautiously.
if it happens earlier... fine. If not, I am waiting with some cash sitting cautiously.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
SOLD TAN... BOUGHT M puts
well, retail numbers were worse than expected... and guess what. The market actually LOGICALLY reacted to the news NOT ignored it.
I was a bit bummed that i didnt pay more attention to TAN. Should have sold it at 10. I end up breaking even... despite this last huge rally. Safe to say I will not use TAN as an energy play again - unless volume get >1.5M... which i have never seen.
I used the proceeds of TAN to get some M puts that expire in 2 days. The market will be tested from here on out and may look for a bottom faster than I anticipated. I was thinking the S&P would get up to 1050. That might not be the case.
Thus, if the market finally decides to head lower according to news and NOT Govt hype, then my portfolio will be resurrected (as I thought it would)
Twitter was down for maintenance today, so there are a bunch of people who are probably lost. I for one only publish if i have an actual trade.
laters...
I was a bit bummed that i didnt pay more attention to TAN. Should have sold it at 10. I end up breaking even... despite this last huge rally. Safe to say I will not use TAN as an energy play again - unless volume get >1.5M... which i have never seen.
I used the proceeds of TAN to get some M puts that expire in 2 days. The market will be tested from here on out and may look for a bottom faster than I anticipated. I was thinking the S&P would get up to 1050. That might not be the case.
Thus, if the market finally decides to head lower according to news and NOT Govt hype, then my portfolio will be resurrected (as I thought it would)
Twitter was down for maintenance today, so there are a bunch of people who are probably lost. I for one only publish if i have an actual trade.
laters...
Monday, May 11, 2009
Hurry Up to 1050 will you!!!
S&P continues its upward rally to 1050. Monday again was pull back day/dip buying day. So what else is new?
I just want this market to spike up to 1050 already... being that most of my portfolio sits on the short end.
Alas, my staying to cash prior to FAZ moving from 17-22 in 2 days would have been more prudent, yes? That was some time ago. In fact, I recall Tim of all people talking about this move on the S&P to 1050 before most if not anyone else. I believed him until that dumb FAZ buy... Anyway, my portfolio will continue to haunt me. I have no doubt it will resurrect itself once more.
Some are talking about a 10-20% correction is in the works. Personally, I think maybe a bigger correction, BUT with a huge bear rally of all rallies. And at that time I will commit.... hmm 50%... that would be my diplomatic answer. I have been caught too many times in the wrong direction, and it kills me when I was in the right direction to begin with. HEDGING has never been my strong suit, but in the end, it is a requirement.
See you all @1050 or maybe 1100.
I just want this market to spike up to 1050 already... being that most of my portfolio sits on the short end.
Alas, my staying to cash prior to FAZ moving from 17-22 in 2 days would have been more prudent, yes? That was some time ago. In fact, I recall Tim of all people talking about this move on the S&P to 1050 before most if not anyone else. I believed him until that dumb FAZ buy... Anyway, my portfolio will continue to haunt me. I have no doubt it will resurrect itself once more.
Some are talking about a 10-20% correction is in the works. Personally, I think maybe a bigger correction, BUT with a huge bear rally of all rallies. And at that time I will commit.... hmm 50%... that would be my diplomatic answer. I have been caught too many times in the wrong direction, and it kills me when I was in the right direction to begin with. HEDGING has never been my strong suit, but in the end, it is a requirement.
See you all @1050 or maybe 1100.
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