Bought AAPL put... Waiting on HOT/MAR...

Well, AAPL gaps up. I buy a put... Nov 65 put @.40... maybe i should have waited for it to get cheaper. but bought the put based on recent history of stocks post earnings and NOT anything to do with AAPL the company. They are crushing the smartphone competition. If only they would open up to T-Mobile and maybe Verizon, then i think total domination in the U.S. mobile space would be in order.

My other puts are in a hold position... FXI, MSFT, SNE. I would like to add HOT to the mix as well. I may have to wait for the closing bell... I wished i sucked it up and bought that Nov 15 put yesterday @.45 rather than limit order for .40

OOPS... missed listing a bunch of earnings for Wednesday. Relisted...

Well, i must have been half asleep when i posted my list of Wednesday Pre/Aftermarket earnings list. Anyway, today we will see if AAPL will have a strong day or just a spike and fade.

HERE IS THE RE-LISTING. granted the its too late for Pre-Market stuff but interesting to watch nonetheless.

PRE-MARKET:
ATI, AMZN, BHI, COP, KCI, NITE, MCD, MRK, NFX, NOC, NWA, R, BA, TRV, WB, WLP, WYE

AFTERMARKET:
AMGN: sector has been good
AMZN: toss up
BIDU: i would rather buy puts on a spike
CDNS: automation for electronics
CMG: too beat up
CRUS: bearish on their sector, but has it bottomed
CTXS: SEE ABOVE
CGN: oil/gas
FNF: insurance/financial/insurance
IRBT: nice idea... not enough marketing. HA! only puts available
KNX: transports comods.
LSI: semi sector
NE: oil/gas
NTRI: weight loss
NUVA: healthcare
OSIP: pharaceutical
RRC: oil/gas
SKX: shoes/retail
*SLM: education finance. money loser to me.. LOW RISK PUT(jan 5 put)
TER: semi sector
TEX: farm equipment industry
ALL: are you in 'good hands'?
TMK: life insurance

now i remember why i stopped doing this... this was long.

Possible FAKEOUT... Follow Through will confirm this tomorrow

Well, AAPL sold into earnings. Usually it stays flat day of earnings... Today was a little different. The suspicious buying right after the closing bell added to evidence of a 'fake-out'. The big boys scared the Long buyers into selling... I am not the least bit surprised. I also will not be surprised if AAPL went lower in a few days, even if the general market went up on the possible upcoming added bail out plan.

I have no time to mess with this nonsense. Thus, my meager $$$ went elsewhere... MSFT put (hold), SNE put (bought), HOT (attempted buy). I have moved on to the next opportunity. No regrets... just more experience.

UPDATE 11:55 PM HST
Dissecting the numbers for AAPL has been confusing for some. Especially with the way iPhone is being accounted for. But Steve Jobs special visit on their earnings conference said one thing... iPhone (which is Mac OS X) has gone beyond its sibling products. It accounts for nearly 40% of their revenue or $4.6 Billion. They sold 6.9 M 3G iPhones this Q. Can you imagine if they pull of their goal of 40 M iPhones sold next year. Apple is a monster... They would be even bigger if it had not been for exclusive contracts with AT&T and Orange. Competition from Android & Blackberry Storm will keep Apple from getting lax. But the iPhone is way ahead at this point. And just think, the desktop/laptop portion of their biz keeps going at 30% growth YOY. It is no wonder that AAPL gapped up afterhours.

Know this tho, i will eventually buy puts in anticipation of the Longs selling the stock on a spike.

AAPL... TOO FAST FOR ME... BOUGHT ELSEWHERE

The plan was to buy puts today. But they opened red... I am still hoping that it opens hard to the low end tomorrow so i can buy cheaper calls. I would be surprised as i said in a previous post if they beat the streets GUIDANCE... they did it last year. In any case, like all holiday seasons, i think AAPL will end higher as the year ends. But i will not jump into any puts... maybe this is a fakeout to get calls holders to sell... if it is then its ok. i have other 'options' to get in on. Besides, AAPL will go down in a few days even if the afterhours end with a gap up. So, there is always another opportunity. Just possibly not as good as it stand here. Was looking at the Jan 160 call & Apr 190 look good to me... too late as i look at the clock. I look forward to their report...
UPDATE:
In fact looking at the after-hours prior to earnings there is some bottom buying (4:16 pm EST)

Thus, here are my 'better' selections for my circumstances...

SNE
There was unusual put option action in SNE. Its in the red today yet one of the puts fell 60%. Well, i went ahead and bought it.

HOT
I am trying to get in on a Nov 15 put. Is the economic situation priced in? Maybe. So, i have a limit order. It should remain cheap enough for me to get in tomorrow. if not then i will kick myself again.

Wednesday Pre-Market/After-Market... And OPEC

I realize it is still nowhere near wednesday. but i figured i'll put a heads up for myself and anyone who is still looking at my sad blog. I will post these despite not being very interested in getting in any of them. But these can all move quickly in either direction.

Pre-Market:
AMZN: the internet version of Walmart. they might surprise this holiday quarter.
GSK: another pharmaceutical giant
KMB: health care supplies. its a tough biz, alot of competition in one hospital i know very well.

Aftermarket:
FFIV: networking... basically tech/enterprise.
ALL: insurance and some banking. 'are you in good hands?'
VAR: cancer therapy systems. interesting, there seems to be some option call action.

Thursday is much more interesting to me and a much longer list of big names...

OPEC
hey, i really thought they were going to do this before it got to the 70s. But cutting production was not at all a surprise.

Selective After-market Monday/Pre & Post-Market Tuesday...

These are not necessarily positions to enter as much as tell signs for certain sectors. I only like AAPL (see note) because its predictable. This time of the year is still following history for the most part. coals pick up this time of the year - winter is a couple months away.

Post-Monday
AXP: they never seem to beat.
NFLX: solid offerings. but options are all over the place, i dont play that.
TXN: semi. toss up.

Pre-Tuesday
AKS: steel.
MMM & DD: industrial. i have no experience in this sector.
CAT: slowing eco not good
COH: retail. pricey bags. but they do cater to the those with more $
FCX: metals/comods. toss up short term.
LXK: they should be a little worried. i would lean bearish.
OXPS: just ok volume. bearish
PFE, SGP: pharmaceutical giant. i got no clue whats up in this sector.
PUK: retirement plans & insurance. toss up
SY: software infrastructure/IT for enterprise & mobile. bearish
UAUA: gas down good. economy spending stinks. toss up.
USB: glad they are still in business. but i would NOT touch banks
YHOO: i got no clue here. is google helping them or not?

Post-Tues
*AAPL: tech/retail. Apple is the lowest risk in terms of predictability. the iPhone numbers will be awesome but its all about guidance. i am set to buy a call on Wednesday morning and hope for a gap up. and will might buy a put prior to earnings... if AAPL surprises with an aggressive guidance i will be shocked, altho they did it last year prior to holiday quarter. Either way, this is the same story at Apples every earnings conference. Then again... i might just avoid the whole thing and stick with Microsoft/Sony/hotel puts.
BRCM: toss up
EW: health medical equipment.
ETFC: investment/broker.
VMW: so beat up... wish i paid attention. it was a strong sell. i missed it.

SOLD!!! RHT put.... Hoping GOOG guides high...

Sold RHT put @ 2.15... missed selling it earlier for 1000% gain after cost. i bought the thing at .20, i may rebuy this put later on a green day in tech. i decided to sell when i noticed it was up 72% today on unusual buying.

otherwise, regarding tech, i am still holding MSFT put til earnings and may add to it at that point. but i think SNE is weaker fundamentally...

cannot wait to see GOOG earnings report... "please guide higher"... make it easy to on my 'lateness' to add more puts... if not well, my existing puts will be on fire again tomorrow.

Nothing is clear cut... sometimes just plain illogical

The few stocks related to earnings that i looked at a few minutes ago are bucking the the gloom and doom of the economy. And some are just priced into the stock... well, thats what some people think anyway...
SHW (you would think would sink with lack of homes to paint) is up nicely
NOK missed badly but guided ok (claiming the lower end will make up for losses going forward)
BTU is up a good percentage on profits... winter is coming a few months.

logical drops COF, MER, C so far... but lets see where they close...

The interesting sector to me has been airlines... despite the slowing economy, oil dropping has shored up their stock. all of them are in the green.

The big cheese that we all await is GOOG (and to a lesser extent IBM). i am just plain tempted to buy a call to spite everyone. the puts are on fire... in fact i wish i did when i woke up this morning. but i rather take my money elsewhere. i.e. puts in hotels, and a few tech related (SNE, DELL.. and possible strangles SNDK, STX, WDC).

So, its GOOG time... let them set the tone for tech... i hope they do meet earnings and guide well. it makes setting up puts for the losers a whole lot easier.

YUP, I WAS RIGHT... SHOULDA BOUGHT APPL PUTS AT THE OPEN.

Everything dropped from the opening green. And the street was disappointed in Apple's lack of a lower price point. Granted they do have a laptop starting at $999, but that is last years top line 'white' Macbook, not the new aluminum Macbooks. Look at any October put is was about a 1000% gain. Oh well... it seems like the rumors sites have become a nice way to position for these puts.

Apple implied that their new process for creating the new MacBooks will cut production costs. So, their guidance going forward could actually be impacted with this development. The other unknown is how much $$$ Apple is banking with their App Store for the iPhone & iPod touch. One has no choice but to position for a strangle. An easier proposition is what i am already holding (MSFT puts prior to earnings). And DUG calls were indeed a buy opportunity today.

Another missed opportunity... but the nice thing is there are more in the future.

AAPL... EXPECT VOLATILITY...(POSTING PRIOR TO OPEN 350 am HST)

Well, the rumor that was a MacBook that was <$900 was apparently mixed up with a new display monitor that Apple was releasing. But we wont know for sure until the Apple Event today. Why is this important? It means that Apple may not be positioning itself to gain a significant marketshare, rather continue delivering products that are superior to the competition at the same price points. So, its business as usual

The Market may very well be disappointed in this development. I am tempted to buy puts today in AAPL. The thing is Steve might release something that we had no clue about and blow us away in time for the holiday shoppers.

He may even mention the iPhone numbers as well... in any case it is a tough stock/option to trade.

GENERAL MARKET
I remain on the sideline... with thoughts that the rally was indeed, a relief rally. Earnings from a varying sectors point to a slowing economy. The Great Depression stuff was definitely overblown. That might have been the signal to buy the bottom on Friday and sell today on the relief.

The BOUNCE!!! Woulda/Coulda/Shoulda... AAPL

BOUNCE
It was so expected, but i thought i would be more of a 500-700, not 1000+ pts. Anyway, my puts remain... And are still profitable. They will stay intact with earnings coming out on a few companies. And until the election, i will leave most of them alone. As for the Oil shorts such as DUG... might this be an opportunity to get back in? Its back at levels found just 6 days ago off from mid 80 high on Friday. Who knows... but i have my eye set on something else...

AAPL
i still remember that thought of AAPL being in the 80s: "This is sooo undervalued." This was my only pick on the Long side, which i didnt execute. I was out doing 'volunteer' work this past week and didnt do a thing about my portfolio. I surely should have bought this thing under 90. The calls were so dirt cheap... Oh well... I was waiting for earnings next week anyway, but tomorrows MacBook event might send these calls out of my reach...

Going back to work today after a nice break for some 'more important things'. So, all is well...

APPL Power... Saves NASDAQ...

Well, like what i said in a previous post, the buyers are lining up for QUALITY STOCKS... and the combination of hype regarding new MacBooks at lower price points bodes well for Apple's stock. It shows that the company is prepared to deal with the bad times in the near future if not at present. But wow... dont you wish you bought AAPL when it was 82+ just a few days ago?

I am looking closer at my puts. I am unsure if the Market has actually touched bottom. AAPL lives in its own space at times related to the general market or even the rest of tech (everything else can go green and AAPL goes red, today was the opposite). It still has a growth story. Any other stocks out there that have similar potential as AAPL are hard to find. So, fill me in if you hear of them. Anyway, i await their earnings Oct 21. At that time i will decide what to do.

More Red (2 hr 20 min to closing bell). AAPL holding its own on quality or hyped MacBooks

GENERAL MARKET
Still falling. Someone noted we needed 5 more days of triple digit falls to bottom out. I think it might take until the election to bottom out myself IMHO. Well, my puts are still on fire... i wonder how bad my 401K/403b are... Anyway, its not like i will see any of this money any time soon.

AAPL
MacBook/MacBook Pro announcement this coming tuesday is bolstering the stock. It seems their is somewhat of a flight to quality as well. The rich can still afford to buy Apple goods. And with the prospect of Apple offering an initial MacBook price point of $800 is strategically the correct move. They actually announced that margins will be lowered with the next product cycle. But my guestimate is that components will actually get cheaper out of oversupply and the slowing economy in general. So, in the whole big picture of things... Apple is a money making machine. Outside of the iPod/MP3 space, they are nowhere near in saturating the worldwide PC/Laptop/Smartphone space. There is a distinct shift happening. Apple itself looks stable, but i still venture to say that their huge numbers in Laptop/iPhone sales will not prevent the stock from taking a hit related to their usual earnings guidance (or 'underguidance')...

EARNINGS LISTING
I have posted selected stock listings again on the main screen... this past week has been more of shooting fish in barrel for the bears, while bulls are nowhere to be found except in the handful of quality stocks with incredible growth prospects against the slowing economy (i.e. AAPL).

DOW + 'N" = DOWN... AND THERE YOU GO...

As unfortunate as the market is directional wise. My sticking to my guns (wishing i added more) on puts has surprised me again. My lowly acct has doubled in a matter of 4 days. And i only performed 2 trades. Sold a chunk of VISN & bought MSFT put... and earnings has even gotten here yet. That is where i thought the DOW would near 8500. Never would i thought to have seen this coming.

So, i was surprised to find that not doing anything has doubled my portfolio. It is scary to figure out how much lower this market is going to go down. Because no firm bottom has been reached. I think a bounce back of course is in order tomorrow. But what a surprise to see how much panic is on the Street.

Specific stocks i have kept my eye on...
FXI (puts) China has spent so much on their infrastructure and the Olympics. They have inflation problems. My old puts are on fire for now. I think it would be prudent to sell this thing off prior to Nov 4 election.
AAPL (watch) has held steady. Altho it is probably a day-traders dream (and nightmare). They have MacBook buzz coming around and a some numbers on iPhone that will blow everyone away
RIMM (watch) held steady, but quality issues are turning up with their new Blackberry Storm, bad time to mess up
MSFT (puts) has already picked a direction from its last earnings. Things arent getting any better.
RHT (puts) is back down again. Fundamentals stink. Redistribution of Linux hasnt guaranteed $. Vista has actually pushed Windows-based coorporations into companies like Red Hat. So, we shall see what MSFT says about the matter.
AUY (stock)what a waste. i should have sold this thing and held it to cash to participate in more puts.
VISN (2 shares ha!) so much for a solid future, Asia has joined the U.S. crisis.

And so as it goes... i got to do nothing related to making money today (its all about being out in 'field'), and i still made money. cool deal. and to top it off someone treated my wife and i to lunch yesterday and today...

Emergency Rate Cut. Sorry Ben, shoulda announced this right after your lecture (RIMM news too)

Stocks will stabilize with this news, but the thing is just another band-aid. The earnings reports coming out show how bad the economy will be in the months or years to come. A true Bear Market has been in place for awhile.

RIMM
They finally released their touchscreen phone called Blackberry Storm. They are advertising it as a phone that will take the world by 'Storm', lame, but i get the point. It surely is better than those Windows Sienfeld commercials. The thing that stinks is that its exclusively with Verizon. So its good for the VZ crowd. I have T-Mobile and will soon be stuck with Android as my only 'touchscreen' option. Competition is indeed good, and they have a built in landscape mode for SMS/Email that Apple should quickly integrate, now that RIMM is 'pushing Apples buttons' (pun intended). The Blackberry Storm is noticably fatter than the iPhone and has nowhere near the 3rd party software (or developer community) that is behind the App Store. Still, at least they are not giving up. This should indeed hold down the fort for RIMM.

The question is will Apple exercise its 'Multitouch' patents? If they do, look out... They already learned a hard lesson with MSFT using a clause in a contract that allowed them to produce Windows. So, is Apple able to exercise their intellectual property, when there were other Touchscreens prior to them releasing an iPhone? We shall see.

In either case RIMM at least stays respectable. Releasing 'Storm' will save their stock (and VZ) in the short-term going forward. The iPhone is just in a different class of smartphones. Its an actual hand computer running Mac OS X. And it shows... but consumers often want what the need and have no desire to have all the options afforded them via the iPhone. You can bet that the storm will be given the death name 'iPhone-killer'. RIMMs end to end services have proved for the most part more reliable (despite a few system failures this year) than AT&T. Interesting Smartphone battles, now that Apple has some competition.

ANOTHER... LIKE WE DIDNT SEE THIS COMING... DOW <10K AND APPLE SELLS >10M iPhones

DOW JONES
Less than 10K!!! Tim must be dancing in the streets if not on a bull...I had to post today... My option positions are so tiny... but they are banking 100%+ (puts in RHT, MSFT, FXI. my lone stock which i forgot to sell was AUY. and so GLD as a choice over AUY a month ago would have been better. but hey... no sense crying over that. i am already lost for the year.

AAPL and iPHONE
As for Apple. They seem to have sold their 10M iPhone wayyyy ahead of expectation (10M in 2008 was the stated goal). And so with their earnings announcement soon (i think Apple has announced plans to conduct a conference call to discuss financial results of its fourth fiscal quarter on Tuesday, October 21, 2008 at 2pm PT/5pm ET.). it will be interesting to watch... for one thing no one expected Apple to have possibly sold 7M this Q (their 4th Q). The high estimate was 5M. iPhone is the #1 Smartphone in the U.S. However, the whole Macro/Micro-eco has surely made AAPL dirt cheap as it actually dipped to 87 today... and rallied strong to finish green today...

Patience is necessary... my plan short term... keep all my puts (RHT, MSFT, FXI) and hedge with AAPL calls around earnings. The plan is buy a call and put prior to earnings... after the last earnings, where AAPL gave poor guidance, the stock opened down huge only to be barely in the red. So, a put prior to earnings and buying a call at the open would have netted 500% or in one case .01 option turned into 1.0... in real money $1 to $100. But who knows... AAPL has announced good guidance for 1Q last year. Thus, having one call prior to earnings could work out as well. We'll see what is going on at the time... it will be a decision made based on varying factors.

And the newest MacBooks apparently are rumored to have a air craft quality aluminum production process that in the PC world is totally revolutionary. In which they take a block of aluminum and mold it into a laptop - interesting, but still a rumor. What we do know is what the CFO stated at last Q earnings: 'Apple's competitors won't be able to match' for some time to come.' hmm. can't wait. my wife needs to dump her piece of junk Dell. btw, all windows based PCs not investing in Linux are doomed. Ironically, Macs are the fastest machines to run Windows... who woulda thunk it...

Technical Bounce

Perfect... if anything I wished i waited to get in on my lone MSFT put today. The market is crazy. To illustrate, GOOG alone had a 50 pt swing. Then afterhours 90? Logic prevailed with AAPL, altho i think the stock will return lower eventually. Fundamentally sound companies will have some fight, but the timing of entry is terrible. They have awesome products coming online, the question is will the rich and more affluent keep spending. Their secret cash cow is the APP store.

Too many things going on. Keep paying your debts... and benefit from cheaper stocks (and homes) in the near future.

SOLD VISN & MOT PUTS/BOUGHT MSFT PUT

My previous post i said i sold a couple puts that recovered most of the cost. it is set to expire soon... so, i took what i could and sold.

The eco stinks. MSFT reports... Vista stinks as it is actually helping Apple sell Macs, XBOX not as good as Wii, iPhone/Blackberrys/future Andriod better than WinCE/Mobile. What else is there? Hmm. The CEO is an idiot and totally has no clue that he is costing his company. They bailed out of there own Ads, $300 million for that thing with Seinfeld.

Anyway, MSFT NOV 20 put. They report in late october. I finally sold my loser VISN.

Wow... my old PUTS are green... Housecleaning

Well, the market stinks for the bulls. but the long-term investor has to be smiling. Quality companies are dirt cheap. The puts that have been losers for have turned green. (about time). I only sold MOT Oct 7 puts. I have no idea when they report earnings, but you can be sure i am all in on that on the bear side. Tho RIMM & AAPL are getting whacked at this point, they along with NOK may very well make MOT worthless on the wireless side.

Man, is APPL cheap. Their forward P/E is now obscenely ridiculous. We can thank Morgan Stanley. The govt should check out MS if they are messing with the market. I mean, isnt it obvious? This just shows me that i should consider buying LEAP calls. By 2011, Apple may very well have a worldwide mobile phone market share of 20%, you heard it hear first. Thats if this world continues (if you know what i mean)

Someone asked if they should buy GLD instead of my pick AUY. Well, i guess the answer is yes.

With all the red in the market... this is a GOOD thing. This should have happened months ago. Like when my portfolio was basically ALL puts. The FED shouldnt have done all this dumb stuff to 'ease' something that required a radical changes. This is an eventuality that had to take place. And thus, i have found no reason to be fully vested in this market. Guys like Tim are banking HUGE coin.

Like what i keep saying... Pay off your debts, because all the $US will one day be frozen. No more loans... so be responsible, dont further your debt!!!

Like We didnt see this coming... RIMM disappoints, Wall St panics

RIMM
Well, the proof is out there that RIMM is losing market share to iPhone, but they are now investing on expanding with the flip-pearl. i am not sure how this will turn out, it seems that the trend is toward ʻsliderʻ phones instead with huge screens. but still, at least they were smart enough to create a pearl for a specific segment. So, they are doing something about losing ground to Apple

Wall Street is in panic mode... RIMM missed by a penny!!! and at the time of this post, is down almost 20% in aftermarket trading. A nice contrarian move may be in place here. cheap calls are now to be found. and any good news coming in a few days can make those calls go green, tho not necessarily in the money. so, a slight gap up is likely after an initial sell-off in the morning. My guesstimate is about no longer than 1/2 hour into tomorrows session that RIMM will build a floor and buyers come back in (barring any bad news).

But hey my theory is easy to make with no since i am not ʻactivelyʻ trading... but i am still observing... like what i said in my last post. Pay off your debts. Dont owe anyone anything. And no matter what you might miss in the market, at least you know you are winning by eliminating the bills. In the grand scheme of things you end up with more $$$, since you are losing less.

So, beware... things will continue choppy until the next Prez gets elected. no one knows what to do... the govt is just as confused as anyone else. not good... so, again... pay off your debts.

AAPL
The rumored laptops look sweet. and the touchpads look much like the touchscreen on the iPhone/iPod Touch. No other Laptop has these abiity. very interesting... they are also rumored to have a nice starting price as well. cheaper than in the past to address the slowing economy. they are basically killing the competition in the U.S.

And they open another Apple store in Hawaii. Waikiki. I have no time to join in the festivities. I like my PowerBook, but I aint no stand in line fanatic. For those of you who do... maybe you can win a free iPhone/iPod/Mac... so maybe it is worth it. but its not for me.