Well, someone called a drop off on BIDU last week. It was pounded today. Too bad it didnt move my FXI puts anywhere. BIDU puts were huge. $5 this past Fridy = $250 today.
Otherwise, the market is boring... and even bears have added a number of long positions. The lack of buyers is keeping things here.
The eco news this week likely will tip the scale either way.
Monday, November 17, 2008
My Trading Gauge...
GIO: beware of impending 'flattening heavy ball'
TIM: 'untradable slope'
FLY: crash postponed, but eventual
STOCKBEE: 'is the [ALL] bad news priced in?... range bound... Hedge Funds cash'
Chartswing: 'no clue where we head...'
Well, nothing substantial. But definitely a rally has just so much resistance. This type of market has only had the same outcome every few months... it eventually CRASHES... and yet the squeezes and lack of volume out there temper the bears. If there is any sign of a bottom a gigantic wave of buying could occur. That is the conundrum. I coined the term 'miracle rally' for one reason. At this point it would be a miracle if it happens.
I have one major position. FXI puts. And number of puts everywhere and two momentum calls. For those calls to strike would be a miracle... historical...
I have some laundry to do and this 'talk' that i have to outline before i go to my real job (that doesnt lose money). We shall see how today ends. I think the Market waits for the economic data this week... starting with PPI stuff tomorrow. Housing & FOMC Wednesday and finally Thursday Initial Jobless claims. So, by Friday we shall see what happens and in the process get more confused.
TIM: 'untradable slope'
FLY: crash postponed, but eventual
STOCKBEE: 'is the [ALL] bad news priced in?... range bound... Hedge Funds cash'
Chartswing: 'no clue where we head...'
Well, nothing substantial. But definitely a rally has just so much resistance. This type of market has only had the same outcome every few months... it eventually CRASHES... and yet the squeezes and lack of volume out there temper the bears. If there is any sign of a bottom a gigantic wave of buying could occur. That is the conundrum. I coined the term 'miracle rally' for one reason. At this point it would be a miracle if it happens.
I have one major position. FXI puts. And number of puts everywhere and two momentum calls. For those calls to strike would be a miracle... historical...
I have some laundry to do and this 'talk' that i have to outline before i go to my real job (that doesnt lose money). We shall see how today ends. I think the Market waits for the economic data this week... starting with PPI stuff tomorrow. Housing & FOMC Wednesday and finally Thursday Initial Jobless claims. So, by Friday we shall see what happens and in the process get more confused.
Friday, November 14, 2008
What Rally? We WILL Head Even Lower...
We just had a warning wednesday that there is no firm bottom. That rally yesterday was just another day for bears to throw more puts/shorts at the market
Here is what i am reading from
TIM: Cautious balance portfolio for rally or crash
FLY: Added to his shorts yesterday but held longs
GIO: BULL Trap... But Caution advised. Follow leading stocks for bull indicatiors
MAC: We needed a follow through on a rally to confirm it true (nope, none, nada)
STOCKBEE: 'Wall Street Lays Another Egg'
So, in the end i was busy elsewhere yesterday doing 'more important things'. I only regret not entering my puts at the close of yesterday.... especially China. DUG looks cheap here, but i think China has more room to fall. OPEC will step in soon.
Anyway, with yesterday and today we find ourselves back at square one. I didnt touch a thing. I remain patient on the fall of China stocks to continue....
Here is what i am reading from
TIM: Cautious balance portfolio for rally or crash
FLY: Added to his shorts yesterday but held longs
GIO: BULL Trap... But Caution advised. Follow leading stocks for bull indicatiors
MAC: We needed a follow through on a rally to confirm it true (nope, none, nada)
STOCKBEE: 'Wall Street Lays Another Egg'
So, in the end i was busy elsewhere yesterday doing 'more important things'. I only regret not entering my puts at the close of yesterday.... especially China. DUG looks cheap here, but i think China has more room to fall. OPEC will step in soon.
Anyway, with yesterday and today we find ourselves back at square one. I didnt touch a thing. I remain patient on the fall of China stocks to continue....
Thursday, November 13, 2008
UNBELIEVABLE... Shoulda woulda yet again
Well, i thought today i should have lightened my put position... well i didnt and also failed to place an exit/stop. And yet there is this weird feeling that things will get worse in a few days rather than better.
Tomorrow is the tell tale of things to come. Asia appears to have followed the U.S. lead... So they are trading in the green.
Retail and oil reports tomorrow. But the way the market is. It may go up another 500 points.
Tomorrow is the tell tale of things to come. Asia appears to have followed the U.S. lead... So they are trading in the green.
Retail and oil reports tomorrow. But the way the market is. It may go up another 500 points.
Bought HK puts
It was cheap... boy did the market move fast. I paid a few bucks more to get HK dec 7.5 put, since my initial limit order didnt go in earlier (i thought the market would go a little higher thus i would get an even cheaper put). If the FLY is right about this going single digits, this will be good winner. We shall see what tomorrows oil report does to the energy sector.
I am done for today. my FXI puts were never in the red today, altho they were never up huge either. Slow moving yes... but at least profitable. AND most of all manageable.
I am done for today. my FXI puts were never in the red today, altho they were never up huge either. Slow moving yes... but at least profitable. AND most of all manageable.
BORING... FXI hold or lighten...
Well... of all things China props up. Why? Who knows. Asia pretty much was down 5% and it pops here in the U.S. To be honest, the thing didnt move much yesterday either. But a big move DOES awaits us.
I didnt buy on this puts dip. I am content with my positions. My hedge calls tho may be a little out of reach at these levels. Patience is required today.
Oil and retail report tomorrow. Thus, i have no choice but to hold on to my FXI puts, tho i am considering lightening on the position. In the end FXI requires a crash/bull rush to get moving... Its the waiting game again...
(UPDATE: less than 1/2 hour later... bam market down.)
I didnt buy on this puts dip. I am content with my positions. My hedge calls tho may be a little out of reach at these levels. Patience is required today.
Oil and retail report tomorrow. Thus, i have no choice but to hold on to my FXI puts, tho i am considering lightening on the position. In the end FXI requires a crash/bull rush to get moving... Its the waiting game again...
(UPDATE: less than 1/2 hour later... bam market down.)
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Leaving $$$ on the table... But on to the next table. And the 'miracle rally'
LEFT $$$ ON THE TABLE WITH HK
Well, HK worked well. But there are no spikes or collapses. Just a slow drift downward. So, that being the case, I missed a full 50% gain on HK puts...
THE NEXT TABLE...
However, hopefully the FXI puts will kick in yet again. Its funny how my Dec 25 puts are sandwiched by the 24 & 26 strikes that were much more profitable today... well... maybe not funny... Either way this may be the start of the major China meltdown part deux.
As for energy. Specifically oil, i am cautious what OPEC might do next. At the same time, "I dare them" to cause a spike in oil. That will be my entry on DUG or USO puts.
The Turkey rally it seems will not show its face. I do have a few calls in place if it does happen... Namely AAPL/POT that have been hosed at this point. If these calls go green... I will name this the miracle rally. BUT it looks like i should have had some out there puts as well... too late for that... they are both fliers up AND down...
Holding FXI...and will re-enter HK if it spikes up. FLY was surely point on regarding it going to single digits.
Well, HK worked well. But there are no spikes or collapses. Just a slow drift downward. So, that being the case, I missed a full 50% gain on HK puts...
THE NEXT TABLE...
However, hopefully the FXI puts will kick in yet again. Its funny how my Dec 25 puts are sandwiched by the 24 & 26 strikes that were much more profitable today... well... maybe not funny... Either way this may be the start of the major China meltdown part deux.
As for energy. Specifically oil, i am cautious what OPEC might do next. At the same time, "I dare them" to cause a spike in oil. That will be my entry on DUG or USO puts.
The Turkey rally it seems will not show its face. I do have a few calls in place if it does happen... Namely AAPL/POT that have been hosed at this point. If these calls go green... I will name this the miracle rally. BUT it looks like i should have had some out there puts as well... too late for that... they are both fliers up AND down...
Holding FXI...and will re-enter HK if it spikes up. FLY was surely point on regarding it going to single digits.
SOLD/BOUGHT
SOLD HK puts... too early, but for a profit
BOUGHT FXI puts... held FXP shares
I think oil will either floor here or cause OPEC to immediately cut production. Either way, that is why i didnt go oil. Though i must say, i missed out on DUG today as I have been the last 3 trading days.
(UPDATE: SOLD FXP. bought more FXI puts.)
BOUGHT FXI puts... held FXP shares
I think oil will either floor here or cause OPEC to immediately cut production. Either way, that is why i didnt go oil. Though i must say, i missed out on DUG today as I have been the last 3 trading days.
(UPDATE: SOLD FXP. bought more FXI puts.)
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
What I SOLD/BOUGHT
SOLD DUG call
Well my sell trigger on DUG call was a little too tight, thus limiting my profit. But i will take it.
BOUGHT:
- HK dec 17.5 puts... i wanted a bear position on energy, but not oil. if oil spikes prior to inventory numbers, i will buy oil puts again.
- FXP shares. options are little too nerve racking. But i believe China heads lower.
HELD: dec OPTION months of these are worthless
- POT dec 140 call
- AAPL dec 150 call
- NOC may'09 22.5 puts
- YHOO apr'09 5 put
- YHOO jan 32.5 call (really old call)
- smattering of AUY shares
Well my sell trigger on DUG call was a little too tight, thus limiting my profit. But i will take it.
BOUGHT:
- HK dec 17.5 puts... i wanted a bear position on energy, but not oil. if oil spikes prior to inventory numbers, i will buy oil puts again.
- FXP shares. options are little too nerve racking. But i believe China heads lower.
HELD: dec OPTION months of these are worthless
- POT dec 140 call
- AAPL dec 150 call
- NOC may'09 22.5 puts
- YHOO apr'09 5 put
- YHOO jan 32.5 call (really old call)
- smattering of AUY shares
SOLD! FXI put... DUG regret... Economy numbers this week.
Well, i set the trigger to sell if it spiked into profitable territory. Unfortunately i missed another leg lower. Still it served me well. There are some points of resistance heading downward, so caution is advisable.
DUG calls (and obviously FXI puts) were on my mind all day yesterday. If oil <60, it would mean it could go to 40. I will wait for the end of the trading day to decide whether i want in or not. I would guess that a DUG OTM call would be a cheap way of catching some momentum related to news this week:
Thurs, Nov13 has jobless claims numbers
Fri, Nov 14: oil, retail...
In scanning a few stocks... it seems SOHU is a nice replacement for anything China (FXI). I will consider them at the close as well.
Watchlist: DUG calls, FXI puts, SOHU puts. (UPDATE: bought HK dec 17.5 puts)
DUG calls (and obviously FXI puts) were on my mind all day yesterday. If oil <60, it would mean it could go to 40. I will wait for the end of the trading day to decide whether i want in or not. I would guess that a DUG OTM call would be a cheap way of catching some momentum related to news this week:
Thurs, Nov13 has jobless claims numbers
Fri, Nov 14: oil, retail...
In scanning a few stocks... it seems SOHU is a nice replacement for anything China (FXI). I will consider them at the close as well.
Watchlist: DUG calls, FXI puts, SOHU puts. (UPDATE: bought HK dec 17.5 puts)
Monday, November 10, 2008
UPDATE: FXI puts
Well, that bail out didnt do much did it... It faded - quickly. I bought Dec 27 put near the end of the day with a stop at 27.65. Or about a buck above todays close/a few cents above the high with a target of about hi 21 or 22.
Everything else confuses me... tomorrow will be telling. Everyone seemed cautious today. But i will benefit either direction taken.
Everything else confuses me... tomorrow will be telling. Everyone seemed cautious today. But i will benefit either direction taken.
Sidelined...
The market has no firm direction today... If anything DUG calls would have been a nice day trade, but i dont do such things with an account that is so meager it would make you laugh.
GM price target... is $0. PLEASE NO BAIL OUT! I say let someone buy them out. They have some of the ugliest cars in the world - they deserve it. They havent figured out that cars need to be attractive too.
Either way, my long calls are set for any GIGANTIC bull market if its heading our way via POT & AAPL are my main hedge (turkey rally or just plain turkey)... tho i my choice of AAPL may have been a mistake since they sometimes trade in a bubble (market up, AAPL down & visa versa).
The different views out there provide no solid direction either way. Just much caution. The views include
- FLY hating on HK while it sits in the green
- Tim trading DUG as it opened down nearly 8%.
- Gio has an IBD watchlist with VIX in mind
- Stockbee mentioned a 21 day range of 'subsided' selling
- MAC had some leanings towards a weak bottom, but he has no trust in that.
So i am sidelined at the moment. The last hour of trading will likely speak for itself. Their are no U.S. Economic until Thursday. ALOT of bad news can come our way quickly (jobless claims, trade balance, retail, oil inventory). Hmm, you would think those reports would signal a crash coming our way. Thus, It might be wise for me to wait til then...
GM price target... is $0. PLEASE NO BAIL OUT! I say let someone buy them out. They have some of the ugliest cars in the world - they deserve it. They havent figured out that cars need to be attractive too.
Either way, my long calls are set for any GIGANTIC bull market if its heading our way via POT & AAPL are my main hedge (turkey rally or just plain turkey)... tho i my choice of AAPL may have been a mistake since they sometimes trade in a bubble (market up, AAPL down & visa versa).
The different views out there provide no solid direction either way. Just much caution. The views include
- FLY hating on HK while it sits in the green
- Tim trading DUG as it opened down nearly 8%.
- Gio has an IBD watchlist with VIX in mind
- Stockbee mentioned a 21 day range of 'subsided' selling
- MAC had some leanings towards a weak bottom, but he has no trust in that.
So i am sidelined at the moment. The last hour of trading will likely speak for itself. Their are no U.S. Economic until Thursday. ALOT of bad news can come our way quickly (jobless claims, trade balance, retail, oil inventory). Hmm, you would think those reports would signal a crash coming our way. Thus, It might be wise for me to wait til then...
Friday, November 7, 2008
SOLD WYNN puts (UPDATE: SOLD DUG TOO)
Well, i am not waiting for the weekend to 'hope' it works out... i am just happy than my i lost $35... when initially it was a 50%+ loss on the position... i am happy just to get out...
As for DUG, it is here for the long haul. I have to really think about matters here... if it hangs above the low rest of this day it should be ok.
UPDATE: I CHICKENED OUT... I TOOK THE PROFIT on Jan 59 call...
I am holding the rest of my puts(NOC may'09, YHOO apr'09, MSFT nov, BYD nov) and an old PCX call that didnt strike during that last rally.
I am looking into getting a long call option in POT or AAPL. Thx to Gio & Tim.
(UPDATE: bought Dec 150/140 calls on POT/AAPL if we get a turkey rally...if not they will remain a long hedge on future puts)
As for DUG, it is here for the long haul. I have to really think about matters here... if it hangs above the low rest of this day it should be ok.
UPDATE: I CHICKENED OUT... I TOOK THE PROFIT on Jan 59 call...
I am holding the rest of my puts(NOC may'09, YHOO apr'09, MSFT nov, BYD nov) and an old PCX call that didnt strike during that last rally.
I am looking into getting a long call option in POT or AAPL. Thx to Gio & Tim.
(UPDATE: bought Dec 150/140 calls on POT/AAPL if we get a turkey rally...if not they will remain a long hedge on future puts)
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Slow Plunge... "HK must die"?
SLOW PLUNGE
Well, the DJI isnt dropping off a precipice... but its going into this daily drop thing. a few hundred here, a few hundred there. NOT 700 or a 1000. All this talk of the DJI going to 7000 this year and 4000 next year is FUNDAMENTALLY right. Whether 4000 happens, well i would think thats something for next year.
HK
Ok the FLY is adamant that HK must die. I had that thing profitable on calls last week, but my dumminess if there is such a word failed to set a stop and i lost a profit. BUT believe me when i said i am glad i took the loss. No sense crying over that... so, i went ALL IN on one account with DUG (with the few Pesos i have left in that one trading account).
I have a trip planned in 2009 (ticket prices are only now dropping) I can only wish oil crashed to the 40s, as you see the airlines are in the green today. But knowing how Airlines work, they will start charging for carry on luggage too. The question is whether OPEC will put up with that.
Thus my portfolio includes:
DUG calls: if oil gets <60... there goes the support.
WYNN puts: (Mr. Wynn is a liar), i finally got this green
YHOO puts: (MSFT wont buy Yahoo is $5, Mr. Yang is begging.)
NOC puts: remember, democrats use Defense money elsewhere
BYD puts: worthless
MSFT put: an old put, Nov 15 too short a window.
PCX call: a leftover from the pre-election
AUY: my weak hedge
VISN: why did i bother keeping 2 shares?
YHOO call (a very old call)
When will we go up again? Thats a question that no one knows. Maybe at the earliest right after Turkey Day.
I am off to do a different kind of campaign...
Well, the DJI isnt dropping off a precipice... but its going into this daily drop thing. a few hundred here, a few hundred there. NOT 700 or a 1000. All this talk of the DJI going to 7000 this year and 4000 next year is FUNDAMENTALLY right. Whether 4000 happens, well i would think thats something for next year.
HK
Ok the FLY is adamant that HK must die. I had that thing profitable on calls last week, but my dumminess if there is such a word failed to set a stop and i lost a profit. BUT believe me when i said i am glad i took the loss. No sense crying over that... so, i went ALL IN on one account with DUG (with the few Pesos i have left in that one trading account).
I have a trip planned in 2009 (ticket prices are only now dropping) I can only wish oil crashed to the 40s, as you see the airlines are in the green today. But knowing how Airlines work, they will start charging for carry on luggage too. The question is whether OPEC will put up with that.
Thus my portfolio includes:
DUG calls: if oil gets <60... there goes the support.
WYNN puts: (Mr. Wynn is a liar), i finally got this green
YHOO puts: (MSFT wont buy Yahoo is $5, Mr. Yang is begging.)
NOC puts: remember, democrats use Defense money elsewhere
BYD puts: worthless
MSFT put: an old put, Nov 15 too short a window.
PCX call: a leftover from the pre-election
AUY: my weak hedge
VISN: why did i bother keeping 2 shares?
YHOO call (a very old call)
When will we go up again? Thats a question that no one knows. Maybe at the earliest right after Turkey Day.
I am off to do a different kind of campaign...
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Obama Positions... and YHOO...
Ok we know one thing... See ya oil... and have fun Defense sector...
I bought
DUG jan 59 call @3.0... did you see the last time this rallied?
NOC may 22.5 puts @.25... a LONG put...
YHOO may 5 put @.22... Google will no longer 'deal' with them.
Held: WYNN Nov 45 put for now...
I bought
DUG jan 59 call @3.0... did you see the last time this rallied?
NOC may 22.5 puts @.25... a LONG put...
YHOO may 5 put @.22... Google will no longer 'deal' with them.
Held: WYNN Nov 45 put for now...
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Failing to follow ones own plan costs $$$
I said a few days ago that any rally MUST include POT... and guess what... I didnt buy any calls... I mentioned that 25 points ago. ARGH... in terms of options likely a 500% gain.
Shoot me...
Shoot me...
SOLD HK calls (late)/Held WYNN puts & PCX calls... Missed MA.
Well, i had to bite the bullet. I sold my loser HK...My not being disciplined in setting stops cost me the gains over the last couple of weeks in one of my accounts.
WYNN sank today but somehow rallied in the end. Tim bought more puts in these guys so that is on my side. But watching how i am unable to get back to the original value based on the stock price i bought it at certainly shows how time decay affects options.
I didnt buy NOC/GD/LMT/BA based on the election... So i will learn if the election matters to those stocks tomorrow. Long term i do think they will get a blasting if Obama gets in.
MA
Mastercard is a monster! Their earnings gets me thinking about making those long earnings list again... sigh... but if i participate in stocks like MA then it would be worth it. It is hard to compare it with V & AXP and the fact that its election day only added to the buying spree attitude.
WYNN sank today but somehow rallied in the end. Tim bought more puts in these guys so that is on my side. But watching how i am unable to get back to the original value based on the stock price i bought it at certainly shows how time decay affects options.
I didnt buy NOC/GD/LMT/BA based on the election... So i will learn if the election matters to those stocks tomorrow. Long term i do think they will get a blasting if Obama gets in.
MA
Mastercard is a monster! Their earnings gets me thinking about making those long earnings list again... sigh... but if i participate in stocks like MA then it would be worth it. It is hard to compare it with V & AXP and the fact that its election day only added to the buying spree attitude.
Monday, November 3, 2008
WYNN... PUTS kick in... Tim is on it... Other notables
It was so obviously a stupid set up. I will hold these Wynn puts.
WYNN:
Tim posted early this morning to short WYNN with a stop @ 70. Casinos were overbought (UPDATE: maybe not overbought, put an earring on a pig, Mr. Wynn was so evasive regarding actual numbers.) because of Wynn, but the economy havent really changed (it still stinks). Anyway, i woke up today and got 20% of my loser back. But the Casinos regardless of where they are will suffer. Wynn beat earnings because of their Chinese Casino, but looking forward, they are the very ones that are facing inflation and now how do you think they will deal with any new Prez? I could care less who the next Prez is as i am non-political. But the next Prez will likely slow the stupid selling of jobs to China.
POSITIONS: HK/PCX calls... WYNN puts... AUY...
I await tomorrow to buy a spec put on one of the defense contractors. If Obama gets in, the put will be like a treasure ticket.
I continue to hold HK because of it being winter... PCX is still there if we have bullish activity after Nov 4th. Gio is using PCX as a hedge. If my PCX call hits it will be a miracle, then again i only spend $30 for it. Coals still have their place, but apparently Obama is not a fan of them.
So, no trades today...
NOTABLES:
Casinos dipping...
Oil down =Airlines/Shippers up...
RIMM being on fire because of their upcoming Blackberry Storm... They should thank Apple that they didnt release the iPhone on Verizon. Otherwise they would be dead.
WYNN:
Tim posted early this morning to short WYNN with a stop @ 70. Casinos were overbought (UPDATE: maybe not overbought, put an earring on a pig, Mr. Wynn was so evasive regarding actual numbers.) because of Wynn, but the economy havent really changed (it still stinks). Anyway, i woke up today and got 20% of my loser back. But the Casinos regardless of where they are will suffer. Wynn beat earnings because of their Chinese Casino, but looking forward, they are the very ones that are facing inflation and now how do you think they will deal with any new Prez? I could care less who the next Prez is as i am non-political. But the next Prez will likely slow the stupid selling of jobs to China.
POSITIONS: HK/PCX calls... WYNN puts... AUY...
I await tomorrow to buy a spec put on one of the defense contractors. If Obama gets in, the put will be like a treasure ticket.
I continue to hold HK because of it being winter... PCX is still there if we have bullish activity after Nov 4th. Gio is using PCX as a hedge. If my PCX call hits it will be a miracle, then again i only spend $30 for it. Coals still have their place, but apparently Obama is not a fan of them.
So, no trades today...
NOTABLES:
Casinos dipping...
Oil down =Airlines/Shippers up...
RIMM being on fire because of their upcoming Blackberry Storm... They should thank Apple that they didnt release the iPhone on Verizon. Otherwise they would be dead.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
NOV 4th... OK... My long term plan is here...
Well, i totally blew that stupid WYNN put... for one thing they are liars.... the economy stinks in China too.
Anyway, the position that might be of interest is the DEFENSE/MILITARY related puts. History says democrats cut that type of spending. If you look at the charts since October, one would think the election is priced in. But if you look at the charts going back into 2000, you will find that NOC/GD can still head 100% LOWER!. The question is how long?
MAY 2009 puts for NOC & GD are dirt cheap... Anyway, the plan is to leave it in there...
The bear rally that we might be in at this point may not apply to all stocks...
In the end, everyone is waiting for Nov 4 to pick a direction... Although, the street in general is saying the worst is behind us. I think it is just a setup for the worse.
I HATE that WYNN position... i went against my gut feeling... and paid big time...
Anyway, the position that might be of interest is the DEFENSE/MILITARY related puts. History says democrats cut that type of spending. If you look at the charts since October, one would think the election is priced in. But if you look at the charts going back into 2000, you will find that NOC/GD can still head 100% LOWER!. The question is how long?
MAY 2009 puts for NOC & GD are dirt cheap... Anyway, the plan is to leave it in there...
The bear rally that we might be in at this point may not apply to all stocks...
In the end, everyone is waiting for Nov 4 to pick a direction... Although, the street in general is saying the worst is behind us. I think it is just a setup for the worse.
I HATE that WYNN position... i went against my gut feeling... and paid big time...
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