OUT OF THE LOOP...or Forgetful...

Props to my man Gio. "Surgeon" he says. I am most impressed with his LONG on JRJC. While playing SKF. Bummer for me, i didnt know there were options out there for SKF. I must say, he informed me of a couple trades. Winners.

My CHDX sell stop went off. kind of a bummer. but it was a successful disciplined trade.

DELL stinks. I knew that much, but as for the stock. Too unpredictable. I so wanted to buy puts the other day...

My meager option put in AAPL garnered 86%. But i didnt sell it. Letʻs just say weʻre in for some punishing news next week. The following week however will have the FED written all over it.

puts in play: DHI, IWM, AAPL, AEO, WYNN, FXI, BDK, WFC, JPM.... Too many... i am looking to cut my loses next week.

if thereʻs one thing i am looking at is USO movements. Iʻve completely forgotten about it. Thereʻs a construction/housing related ETF out there. anyone know itʻs ticker?

Hindsight

I am a hind... for not shorting/putting AAPL MORE... There was no way THIS RALLY was going to continue. I think it does look good going into April, but i wouldnt touch it on the long side til fall... after we see how the next 2 quarters go.

I have been waiting for bad news to knock some sense (red). I still have a few puts
DHI is finally coming to its senses. and construction report is on monday. i will have to sell this loser at the time.
WFC is finally coming back down.
AEO is getting a nice butt kicking too.

Oh, and Visa... it will be a fun IPO to watch.

HD...Not the TV... And Avoiding Confusion

As expected... HD earnings stunk, altho at the time of this post it's just pre-market. Do I regret not listing them on my earnings list? Sure. Do i regret not getting some cheap puts? Sure. Do I think I would have lost money elsewhere to negate any gain in HD puts? Sure. And there you have it. I am unsure of anything until something dramatic happens.

All the pro's are confused. So, how much more so am I. Sticking to mostly cash at this point is most prudent. Patience will usually be rewarded. A few more eco news on the way today... and we shall see if we get another psuedo-bottom-hope rally or another "nice" fall.

Gio: I don't even bother checking out Fly or Tim. Rarely do i check Stockbee as well. btw, Stockbee thinks a solid bottom is starting to be formed and sees dramatic sell offs behind us.

I myself will let the market speak for itself, i know i cant outwitt the market consistently enough. Anyway, there are still a number of overpriced stocks out there. But the leader stocks are all "broken" for now and thus the indexes have somewhat stablilized with a gradual trend down rather than dramatic falls.

(V)ISA

Sure the market stinks. But do you think people will stop using their credit cards? NO WAY! They have so many ways of making money... Terminals, Transactions, Finance charge, Late Fees, etc... all in multiple countries. (more than MasterCard).

Of course, i am in no rush to buy V. But i do think they are a definite buy - eventually.

I am looking at this week with a lot of volatility. The market seems to be ignoring more bad times ahead. Anyway, I am keeping my DHI puts.

CHDX may actually stop out on me. good thing it was a test buy. not a big play at all.

Predictable...

Well RIMM was up yesterday... of course the first thing i thought to do was to buy puts. And sure enough i check out a screen and itʻs down with the rest of the street with Eco data fears next week. The company is fine, but the stock is considered anything but a sure thing.

AAPL broke below 120. It is one messed up stock. The company is on fire, mind you, but that doesnt matter to the street. Its all about future expectations. I actually hope it dips below 100. That would be the pretty considerable level for me to jump back in. I think they should drop the whole exclusive deal when they deal with Asia. A smaller piece of the monthly from more carriers will ensure they get some if not all of the padded revenue. I mean, the carriers KNOW what handsets are on their systems and can charge accordingly.

my portfolios since the beginning of the year started have lost 60%. Terrible management. The losses incurred from TWO really bad trades, and a failure to sell the loss quickly, while missing some spot on trades(i happened to be away for one of them). Its sad that i tend to hold on so long to losers. The lesson has indeed been impressed upon me recently on having read a couple books. Sometimes i need to SEE IT IN WRITING.

Most of my portfolio are again in cash... The thing is my portfolios are so weak that i cant even afford some of the cheapest contracts. i am tempted to just pull the whole thing out. Thereʻs a investment broker out there that is offering miles in exchange for a new account. Maybe that is the surest investment for me at this point.

PUTS still in play.... *sigh*
IWM, DHI, AEO, WFC, DECK, WYNN, BDK, FXI(Long put).

ANYWAY, ENOUGH RANTING...

RIMM... If it aint broken...

Well, looks like their model is indeed working. Apple could take a lesson in maximizing subscription numbers by allowing multiple carriers instead of exclusive ones. I hated that deal from the beginning, being that the iPhone is on a different carrier.

But as all things go. Itʻs a bear market. unless this stock finds a base @120. i am not buying. but itʻs definitely encouraging for the consumer market... as this is where all the new subscribers are coming from. And the kicker is, if the touchscreen Blackberry is in the works, then you have something huge in a real media phone to battle iPhone. But for now, they are in no rush. They are competing primarily with PALM, MOT, Windows based Phones.

Sell the Loser

Well, GRMN didnʻt work out at all. At least itʻs down today to cut my Put loss. Sold both options, too early? maybe. But better than a fat zero as i have been too guilty of allowing.
Funny though. I listed NTRI & WFMI as potential puts. but i go and pick the wrong one. Some things dont change.

I updated my earnings list... if anyone cares. But Really, there wont be any HUGE things to trade for some time.
Earnings season is thankfully dying down.

CHDX... GRMN... and stuff

Last week i bought a measly position in CHDX. it seems to have formed a new base while i was away.

GRMN. Bot a couple of puts at the 50 strike. If they miss Q, then they go down, if they miss guidance itʻs a toss-up. Regardless i am getting out tomorrow.

HPQ. I think they will meet Q, but miss guidance, but it seems that panic doesnt seem to follow Tech these days.

Whole Foods is an interesting play. Organic/Non-processed foods are ironically more expensive. Thatʻs not good for Whole Foods or the general public. Alas, i am too weak to touch this. But tomorrows blog might show my disappointed if i miss.

NTRI. so do we have enough Fat people to give them business? Yes. However, the competition is all over the place. So, me no touchy.

I am going to look at IWM as the pure trade. itʻs going sideways, why not straddle and make some coin both ways. weʻll see.

Back To Watching

Well, i couldnʻt trade a thing on while i was on my trip. And watched 2 winners go without my participating: FSLR, AMAT. I kinda wish i was still on vacation so i wouldnt be sick looking at another lost opportunity. but the good news is theres alot more opportunities ahead.

Anyway, i am retooling my brain. this market is designed to take money away from you. having accepted that, i am working on my patience. i may very well not trade until April to see if i have any discipline. Then again earnings season is not quite over yet.

the surprise consumer spending will be working against my retail related puts. If Bush does sign that rebate thing, *please*, then that only will spur more irresponsible spending. so, i will see if my stops come into play there. otherwise my portfolio B is a wasteland.

congrats to the Solars buyers. let me know when thereʻs a good short there. but thats a tough as well, maybe just short the stock rather than puts. there isnt much bad news left that will affect solars. they will still kick butt. in essence i think the safe play is PBW.

My new favorite CHDX needs to do a few things before i buy. but its a nice play with the kind of market we are dealing with.

OH OH...BOT MORE PUTS

DHI Mar12.5put WYNN Mar70put(undercut the bid...cheap). I know i am going against a couple things found in a book i am reading.

I couldnt quite pull the trigger on FSLR. Gio called a fade today in solars. and it did happen. i think theyʻll report a blowout Q, so a strangggggggle may be in order.

Earnings season is winding down. Hope broad worry happens again...

LVS Earnings. A Gift for the bears

I slept through a 3% down day... My pathetic puts may again rise...
OK, itʻs weird to have all these vacation/travel related stocks go up. i know itʻs based on earnings, but the future is bleak for this sector. Regardless, LVS reported a loss that was LESS than expected because of the $ flowing in on its China casinos (covering up the U.S. loss). Well, i consider this a gift. I am in no rush mind you to buy more puts. However, the long term puts just got cheaper. so, i hope for a follow through upward near the high 90ʻs to 100 for a nice entry. Ditto for WYNN.


Starwood on the other hand has broken past its 50 day EMA. $53 is about where i will get some long puts. if i still have $.


I bought AEO puts last week, one of the few trades that made sense. The action today portends a fall below the 50day EMA based on the candlestick. if a could only hope...


My portfolios lack a substantial amount of index puts( one each in FXI, IWM)... i have very little and failed to benefit from todays fall. FXP will be all over the place. China has inflation concerns and the worst winter in years is hampering their economy. It sure doesnt help in their preparations for the Olympics.

Listing Updated... Health may be the place to be...

Bee listed a couple of interesting stocks this past friday. GFA & SMTS... builder and health related.

Speaking of healthcare, its the one industry that is immune to a recession...
Personally i find CHDX interesting. Technically, it has formed a nice base @30... but volume low...
Everywhere has health care needs. It is so expensive to care for people that China made medical equipment will be taken under consideration. watching for accumulation.

gio listed GU. nice day for that stock today...

Yahoo... Can of worms rumors regarding buyers: AAPL, MSFT, Newscorp.
Even Google is offering to help just to keep them from succumbing to microsoft.

MSFT + YHOO = Uh, just a bigger opponent to face GOOG.
Newscorp + YHOO = TimeWarner + AOL
AAPL + YHOO = ? ... the existing email base could give AAPL a bigger pie and a nice base to advertise iPhones/Macs/iPods, but i think Jobs would give less things away for free. It would be a way for AAPL to leverage against GOOG having thoughts of mobile phone dominance... in that case AAPL would have a porthole with marketing might. In the end, I donʻt think AAPL should get involved.... for now

HOLDING PATTERN...

Itʻs like the bears keep waiting for the sky to fall, then out of the blue ONE solid piece of bullish news keeps the market in the green. MSFT + YHOO DEAL. PULEEEEZ...

i will not touch a thing. i lost enough the other day... i have TOO many puts in play.

As for the market... it deserves to fall hard... AND it will. but bullish news of ANY degree is what the bulls are clinging to.

I will officially forward ALL MY YHOO email messages to my GMAIL account. enough said...

GOOG and MOT

So it seems no company can be the bull the bucks the trend in Tech/Internet related stocks. altho, AMZN posted a gain. The question tomorrow is how will the Nasdaq react. I wished i got in on some index puts. but i couldnt stay by my laptop til the market closed. i really thought they would beat the street.

MOT got handed some smack from RIMM & AAPL handsets. DELL is behind the curve, but its a smart move on their part, as computing goes mobile. They will undoubtedly plug into Googleʻs mobile open source OS. Time will tell how quickly DELL can implement a mobile strategy. MSFT seems to be the ultimate loser in the Mobile OS wars (PALM included).

Back to stocks... COH, AEO were unwise trades. In fact, my Portfolio B (which didnʻt move til MacWorld), is at an all-time low. While my Portfolio A has been managed far better... risk wise. The financials and retail have killed my portfolios. The very sectors that deserve to crash... and they deserve to be taken to task for their irresponsible greed.

So, i will end this post by saying that i have broken one of the main rules in trading in a bear market (itʻs in one of the books i am reading). Limit trades to absolutes - high percentage trades. I have gotten a little carried away of late in plugging puts, when the market has been flat to a slight bounce. There is no question as to the years end being lower than the beginning. I am unsure how long we will be in this consolidation.

GOOG and MOT

So it seems no company can be the bull the bucks the trend in Tech/Internet related stocks. altho, AMZN posted a gain. The question tomorrow is how will the Nasdaq react. I wished i got in on some index puts. but i couldnt stay by my laptop til the market closed. i really thought they would beat the street.

MOT got handed some smack from RIMM & AAPL handsets. DELL is behind the curve, but its a smart move on their part, as computing goes mobile. They will undoubtedly plug into Googleʻs mobile open source OS. Time will tell how quickly DELL can implement a mobile strategy. MSFT seems to be the ultimate loser in the Mobile OS wars (PALM included).

Back to stocks... COH, AEO were unwise trades. In fact, my Portfolio B (which didnʻt move til MacWorld), is at an all-time low. While my Portfolio A has been managed far better... risk wise. The financials and retail have killed my portfolios. The very sectors that deserve to crash... and they deserve to be taken to task for their irresponsible greed.

So, i will end this post by saying that i have broken one of the main rules in trading in a bear market (itʻs in one of the books i am reading). Limit trades to absolutes - high percentage trades. I have gotten a little carried away of late in plugging puts, when the market has been flat to a slight bounce. There is no question as to the years end being lower than the beginning.

Risk Failure Management

The win was not getting HOT puts. The loss, holding onto AMZN... i told myself to sell at the open. The only thing on my side are Eco news to send it back down. Short covering obviously taking hold as well. I await GOOG earnings. A possible position their is BIDU puts tomorrow... if GOOG goes green, which i think they will. GOOG calls are too expensive.

I will do myself a favor and lie in wait. LVS puts can wait. Recession hasnʻt fully hit. But i know of people losing half if not all their hours in the hotel biz.

PREDICTION FULFILLED...

The rumor is that AMZN has an unannouced stock buy back... totally irritating...
It opened at the low of the day and indeed cut its loss. The premarket buying pretty much sealed the deal. I have no choice but to hold soon to be expired contracts into tomorrows eco news. hopefully the news is bad enough to take the broad market lower, but especially tech. so, obviously i am hoping GOOG gets shot down (altho my gut feeling is it head higher).

MA kicking butt like every Q earnings. go check it out... anyway, it blasted past its 50day EMA. Being a Bear, I may try to get Apr 160 puts at days end if i get my price.

I did buy COH Feb 27.5 put. Strictly bot on the chart as its bouncing of resistance:


I also bought AEO Mar 20 put (Gio mentioned YESTERDAY)... i am late and the candlestick may seem contrary, but i think i sinks lower tomorrow.

AMZN...And More

Thursday... AMZN i think will open at itʻs lowest of the day. So, i am selling my puts ASAP. i may dip back in at the close, but i think itʻs best to get the profits.

I think i am too late to catch HOT. Although, maybe i have a indirect position going with WYNN & LVS, as the HOT guidance is read. all i know is that no more vacationers that live off credit.

Speaking of which MA reports tomorrow. itʻs a toss up for me. i already am holding AXP. which didnʻt move much, but with the FED outa the way. we might move lower as other companies repeat their mantra "potential economic pressure" on earnings this year.

The big one to watch is GOOG. They are basically ad-based. So, i think they meet... i may do an option strangle. but it would be an expensive endeavor.

"Fun" Friday has a bunch of Eco news that can wipe any positive earnings for the day... so, pick your high flyer... i am thinking financials, or specific overpriced stocks (in my opinion): CMG, LVS, SHLD. unemployment numbers are a strong gauge for the economy.

Slept Through ...

I basically overslept today... thankfully. i missed how boring of a day Fed day turned out to be. I have no Long position. Cash sits >70% of my total portfolios. Big Ben saved the market from crashing. The bulls were not confident at all to keep the leaders at or near their highs of the day.

I missed getting in on HOT. However, they are supposedly reporting tomorrow 1030a, so maybe there is some time for me to get some puts. Related hotels: LVS & WYNN, both have calls AND puts in the negative. you cannot complain about a bad entry either way, hope it stays that way tomorrow. i guess i may be getting up early. but i have AMZN considerations before dumping cash in the toilet. After-market, altho happily in the red is far from being VMWish.

GOOG reports after market tomorrow. the options look TOO expensive (especially for me). So, looks like it is the hotels that i will be targeting tomorrow (btw, i cant wait for Target to finally be here)

There are rumors going around that MOT may no longer do mobile phones. I dont believe it myself, but the fact its talked about merits how this would impact the industry.

Correction

My earnings list erroneously listed AMZN reporting prior to market open. obviously, they report after market.

The pre-market reading is red, but means nothing with the FED in play. i would have bought AMZN puts today, NOT yesterday, if it had not been for my flawed listing.

This will be one of the most interesting days i will have ever watched the broad market as opposed to a small group of stocks