Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Best Course... Pay Debt...

So now i do have internet. DSL... anyway, looking at how things have been going the last 2 weeks. in fact the last months, my decision to sit out and not keep throwing money at the market has been a wise choice. as an example look at how my fav stock AAPL did... drops to 127... back to 140 in two days... back to 126... common now. i dont have time to follow that.

So, the best course is to pay any debt off. Dont keep giving away your $$$ to credit card companies or banks. Why lose money to the Market and Debt? Pay it off. Its just plain good money management. Obviously, the goverment isnt good at doing it and you can see where we are today... learn from stupidity to follow it.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Gold... Oil...

After my post yesterday regarding oil... well, i still believe in the long term it will go down tho not at the pace we have seen. But what a spike today...

Gold is where things will accumulate momentum. Thus i dumped my stupid most of my VISN. the stock i still believe in, but i failed to set a stop loss long ago. and only now i noticed that it crossed the "definite" dump line. Anyway, i bought some AUY...

AND what i was surprise to find was that i still had a number of long puts in play popping green (i had no idea, just to show how out of the market i was...and i wouldnt doubt they go red tomorrow after this post): MOT, RHT, FXI, S. All of these puts are green... and the earliest expires in October, which only reminds me of my having not kept DUG calls, which would have expired in October too. Anyway, i have enjoyed the lack of stress that comes in managing $$$ in the market. So, its all good...

My Raiders finally won a game. Against the [Kansis City] team i think is now the worst team in the NFL. It all starts with the O-Line. On the college front this basically is why I think Hawaii has struggled...since the O-Line/D-Line injuries they suffered against Florida. That game was not worth it. It will now cost UH having a good season. Mind you they may still make a bowl game, but otherwise it will be a tough year.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Samsung + SNDK, Oil, AAPL, Longs (Drugs)

So did you see this coming? i doubt it... I had one guy tell me he was looking into getting some SNDK calls weeks ago, he usually buys during the week of expiration. If he did and held, man did he hit a lotto.

Oil:
If you thought oil was done... other developments continue besides the bad eco affecting oil demand. btw, you would think we would have cheaper plane fares and that airlines should get rid of the stupid baggage fees. Another smack at oil includes the American auto industry as Chevy actually has a nice looking Hybrid coming out in late 2010. It kinda looks like an Acura TL. Japanese and Euro cars are some of the best designed vehicles. Its about time the U.S. copies them and get that dumb pride out of the way so that we can stop driving or sharing the roads with these ugly cars. Anyway, check out the Chevy Volt... Oil may very well be cheap(er), when the American Hybrids reach the mass. Of course, OPEC might have something to say about that.
http://www.autobloggreen.com/photos/2011-chevy-volt-1/

AAPL:
Well, i happen to have been up this morning, and couldnt sleep. Man AAPL actually touched 130!!! awesome... but as i said i have debt to pay and other pressing matters.

CVS, Wallgreens, Longs Drugs, Etc:
Eventually this thing will settle, but this is where the money flows. Despite Medicare/Medicade, and private insurances cutting back, the drug stores still play the perfect middleman. As long as people are kept alive, these stores profit. Think of it this way, you get in the store to buy your drug(s) and then find you need to buy something else that happens to be there too. Before you know it you have a basket or cart full of stuff you ʻmightʻ need, when you really just needed something for your pills for your joints, heart, lungs, or other part(s) of your body... NICE biz model...

Monday, September 15, 2008

LIKE WE DIDNT SEE THIS COMING.... SEPT 15 Shoulda happen months ago.

LEH files for chp 11. Man i tell you i thought this would happen months ago and my portfolio was in full bear mode. Tim must be a billionaire from 2008 alone... LEH was looking for a BSC-like bail out. nope... And i still wish the govt didnt bail out BSC to begin with... cʻmon, no one bails out the individual investor, so why should tax money bail out these chumps? i would have been sitting pretty at this point instead of having my portfolio sideswiped. Alas, thats the govt for you... But some positives are out there and other stuff...

AAPL (cheap)... It is an awesome day for "smart" bottom fishers...
Anyway, i am looking at this another way... I love AAPL going down. AWESOME... this stock is so undervalued. and yet i am still not touching it. i am looking at April 2009 calls & Jan 2010 LEAPS. If AAPL gets below 140... it is a buy... but a scaled buy. The recent bottom was 120 last fall. So, dont be surprised if it doesnt get there, but i doubt it.

Here is the thing with AAPL. Forget iPods and AppleTV. Its all about MACs and iPhones. MACs are gobbling up marketshare and iPhones are beating up all the smartphones and some regular phones as well. RIMM strategists were ingenious by adding a ʻpearlʻ flip phone. that addresses their losing the smartphone battle ground. So, what you have now are the PALM, MOT, NOK, samsungs, LGs of the world getting whacked by RIMM & AAPL. AND the iPhone App Store is bringing in at least 1 million per day at this time for Apple. As they sell more iPhones, that will only go up. And with Gaming being the center of iPod Touch/iPhone you can see how this will exponentially affect the stock positively.

CHINA
Go ahead and add FXP to the mix... i foresee the next Prez penalizing China... my only stock is VISN. sure i lost 25% thus far on it, but you know what... they will beat earnings... no doubt. The commercial ads in China are just beginning. Capital corruption will only increase from here in China affecting the kids to young adults of China. The old and experiences will be left behind and their wisdom will be ignored. That is the world we live in today... And it will only get worse.

OIL
and dont think OPEC will play nice with oil. they can and will cut production, in hopes of having it hover @$100... the hurricanes have affected Gas in north america, but havent reached here in Hawaii. So, it Ike may just be a blip regarding oil. Hope all the those in the Gulf are coping with the difficulties.

Had to put up this post... cant ignore these seismic shifts... unfortunately (or fortunately) i am just watching, being smart, paying off debt, because you know, the govt is tired of bailing out losers (BSC, FNM, FRE)

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

crybabies...

see for yourself... Coach Bill from PATRIOTS... sore loser...

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80aa5f0a

speaking of cry-babies... the rich are crying and the govʻt is bailing them out... first BSC... now FNM/FRE (sept puts would have been better than any lotto)

I shall return... but i have other pressing issues to tend to... this we still know... The U.S. economy stinks even more... oil will keep dropping until a storm actually hits... and something huge that will affect the economy happens in Nov (election). Oh, and my favorite tech company AAPL has new iPods... i dont care about that, its time for some new Macs. They are absolutely gaining marketshare against the PC & mobile phone space, exception would be MP3/MP4 players (where they are dominant) and set top boxes aka APPLE-TV.

I am still watching some things, just focussing on more important stuff, and itʻs a tough time to trade anyway... but i encourage all to check out this disciplined dude... ibankcoin.com/gioblog

plan to be back in your face at an undisclosed time...

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

No posts for now...

My portfolio is a mess... In any case, i will post in the near future regarding Quarterly earnings... this alone has opened my eyes to how coorporations really control a whole bunch of dough and influence billions of $ worldwide.

there are a number of underlying things that will get attention again once the Olympics are done.

for now the U.S. Economy stinks... the finacial system is messed up. The FED dug their own grave. Oil going down has been a good thing for us, but it wont solve long standing problems when Greenspan made an easy way out to stimulate the economy.

of course, i at that time benefitted. altho not as much as i could have as i was not as familiar with options... i can only imagine how much coin i would have banked with my AAPL stocks had they been options instead from 2003 to 2006, i did buy them back in 1997. alas, just one of many misses at possibly considering a retirement. its a tough time to be in the market, but one that has been of the utmost instructive.

please visit: ibankcoin.com/gioblog
he is a sharp dude that has earned his stripes.

Monday, August 11, 2008

NO posts this week til 'maybe' Friday

Too busy this week. Certifications and what not. And finishing up my voluntary requirement for the year... some know as 840...

My loses have been minimum and so have the winners (more like break-even)

The major trend basically is OIL going down... and thus the indexes are up... Earnings that miss arent punished as bad as when oil was up.

Thus i do have a few regrets. VISN hasnt picked up as i would have hoped. And I should have kept my DUG call.

That is about it... Buy DUG long calls on oil spikes. With the dollar getting stronger its a solid trend to short/put oil.

Friday, August 8, 2008

Bot FNM... forgot to buy KNOT

Reaching out on FNM Aug7put... I cant believe on the other hand that i forgot to get in on the KNOT... definite winner, i even have it marked.

Anyway, i will tell you that i am happy that they(KNOT) still post a profit for the Q. i will give them a whack in a few months.

Otherwise, its back to looking for another winner... they are out there...

Thursday, August 7, 2008

Another List... August 8 (Friday) Pre-market

Aug 8 pre-market

-BZH: family home builder
-CDE: explore for mineral, including silver, gold, zinc (cheap stock)
*FNM: puts please
-LPNT: hospital
-MBI: financial guarantee & credit protection svc
-MIR: generates & sells electricity via coal, gas
-NAT: crude oil tankers
-PGR: progressive insurance
-UXG: gold mining

i have a limit order (i wish i checked this out earlier) FNM puts. This was a no-brainer trade

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Aug 7 Pre-Market & After-Market Earnings

based on todays (Aug 6) earnings reaction and in turn options action, i didnt really find anything compelling for Aug 7. there are a few big names of course, but none struck me as a stock that could move a huge number of buyers and sellers.

alas here is my belated list:
Aug 7 pre-market
-BBI:
-FLW
-DT: huge telecom, but mostly foreign
-IMAX: yup movies... nah, i just wait for the DVDs
-PCS: basically like a regional sprint. nice volume tho
-SIRI: this is so cheap and battered, anyone interested? cares?
-DTV(time not supplied): cheap strangle... but would it move strong either way?
-TM (2 am EST): i think they already said they wouldnt make the Q, priced in?
-VMED (3 am EST): another cheap strangle on a huge media conglomerate.


Aug 7 after-market
*HTZ: rental car market tough, definite put play
*KNOT: i get their spam all the time, and nothing they sell interests me... put please
-TRMP: big name Mr. Trump. Yet LVS, WYNN, MGM got more mojo. also, all the puts are already in the money
-WMG: losing $(music is often burned illegally), yet not much expected from them. strangle possibility

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Aug 6 After-Market

-AAP: near 52 wk hi, auto parts.
-ALNY: pharmaceutical near 52 wk hi, study on respiratory drugs
-ALJ: petroleum
-AIG: not the car insurance, but other insurance & financial svc
-ACF: car leases, chart meeting resistance
-ANDE: theres your Ag
-AINV: provides financial backing for middle biz
-BKD: senior living, homes
-CECO: education svc throughout N. America, Europe for colleges/higher Ed.
-EGLE: ocean shipper, primarily commodities
*FBN: furniture manufacturer for homes/retail, puts please
-GDP: petroleum
-HRC: medical tech for healthcare
-MGA: worldwide automotive parts supplier for builders
-MHGC: another hotel, delayed Las Vegas project
*NHP: health industry properties, bullish chart, option call
-PRXL: clinical data, info svc for pharmaceutical studies
-PVA: nat gas/oil
*RWT: real estate finance related commercial/residential, puts here
-REG: real estate, especially malls
*RJET: leases planes, passenger & air freight, puts please
-SVNT: pharmaceutical
-SCI: death related svc, funeral, etc
-SINA: think chinese yahoo (BIDU is chinese GOOG)
-BEE: hotels
-TBSI: ocean shipper
-TK: oil/petroleum
-UTSI: telecom infrastructure/software & accessories... interesting
-VRSN: internet security, transaction, etc... toss up, strangle?
-AUY: GOLD!!!, PUTS?
-

Bought S option

Sept 6 put... another reach... but yesterdays RACK pick was a winner, albeit a slim winner... my portfolio is so shattered i couldnt participate closer to the strike.

Bunch of big name stocks with a lot of attention tomorrow...

PRE-MARKET NOTABLES FOR TOMORROW

AGU
ABK
FTK
FWLT
FRE
HLS: Healthsouth
HK
RIG
RL: Ralph Lauren
S
TWC: Time Warner Cable
RMIX: Concrete, questionable guidance...
YGE

i would short/put RL & S...

Monday, August 4, 2008

Bought RACK option

RACK Aug10put. it might be a bit of a reach... but they stink...

I was selective before, now i am ultra-selective...

Aug 5 After-Market Earnings...

Aug 5 After-Market

-AFN: real estate investment trust
-ACAS: investment firm, acquires businesses early stage...
-AMKR: semiconductor related
-ARNA: pharmaceutical
-CELL: provides wireless devices, logistic services to carriers
-CBL: real estate, manages, buys, operates: malls & communities in the southeast/midwest
-CSCO: Big Tech Dog...
-CSC: IT for big biz & govt
-XCO: oil/nat gas
-EXEL: biotech (primarily for cancer)
*FCH: REIT, BUT owns various hotel pieces, Hilton, Doubletree, Holiday Inn, Sheraton/Westin... has this bottomed? possible puts, keep stops tight
-FIS: transaction services for financial institutions & retailers worldwide
-FST: oil/nat gas
-GSS: mines for GOLD...
-HRS: communications & IT for govt & commercial worldwide
-HCC: insurance
-HCN: invests in health care properties
-HLF: herbalife
-HLTH: heath info services
-IO: think software related to energy, otherwise too broad...
-JBX: Jack In The Box!!!
*KCP: low volume, but hey its Kenneth Cole, puts please
-LPS: tech services for REAL ESTATE....
-LBTYA: video/voice/broadband Europe, Japan, Chile
-MRX: pharmaceutical
-MTU: Japanese financial svc to retail & coorp worldwide
-MOLX: electronic components sold worldwide
-NFP: finance for high net worth individuals & companies
-OKE: newly listed sells/distributes nat gas
-PZZA: low volume, but its PAPA JOHNS pizza
-QSFT: enterprise software
-SHO: another HOTEL
*SNCR: maybe now they will find traction on iPhone, strangle?
-UPL: yet another oil/nat gas
-VTR: health care real estate trust
-WFMI: whole foods... dunno bout guidance

*points of interest for me...
Leave a comment if you have any suggestions on these or other earnings posts

August 5 (Tuesday) Pre-Market

Hopefully you have time to position ur plays today...
Aug 5 Pre-Market plays

-AMCS: energy technology company
-ADM: Ags
-AGIX: pharmaceutical, LOTS of buying today on diabetes drug
-ITU: Brazillian bank, but also international
-BBG: oil/gas
-BMRN: pharmaceutical
-EAT: Restaurant owner: Chiliʻs, Macaroni Grill, etc...
-CSE: Finance provider to biz, healthcare, specialties
-CHTR: hi speed internet/telephone/video services
-XEC: oil/gas exploration & production
-FTR: provides telephone, internet, dish services
*DHI: home builder... what is there to build?
-DNR: oil/nat gas
-DUK: sells gas/electricity to Carolinas, OH, IN, KY.
-EMR: global tech co., designs/supply product & engineering
-EXPD: logistic services, air & ocean freight
-GSX: nat gas/petroleum
*GET: hotel... newly listed NYSE, bad timing
-GLBL: construction/support services for oil/gas
-HNT: managed health care services
-HRP: REIT
-ICON: owns, license, markets: Joe Boxer, OP, basically sells name brand clothes to retail
-JRCC: Coal!!!
-LEAP: digital wireless svc.
-MVL: comic book movies... Xmen, Hulk, Iron Man
-MVIS: low volume, but interesting
*MGM: casino... more hurt awaits?
-TAP: Molson Beer
-ONXX: Pharamceutical
-PKD: oil/gas drilling
-PGH: canadian energy... nice dividend
-PG: blue chip
-PXD: oil/gas
-RRI: sells electricity/energy to Texas & NY
-RDC: offshore drilling
-BID: Sotheby, auctioneer for expensive stuff
-THC: Healthcare
-JOE: real estate
-TDG: aircraft components
-UNT: drilling, oil/nat gas
-VANDA: pharaceutical
-VNO: realty trust
-WBMD: webmd.com
-WEN: Wendys restaurants
-WY: growing/harvesting timber... housing related
-WWE: wrestling...

* i view as lower risk... put/short bias
Note:
All these securities have volumes 500K and up. The exceptions are ones that were at one time 1 M volume but have fallen out of favor, but worth watching

Well Whadya Expect... VISN vs. DUG

Last friday i buy a bunch of VISN stock... actual stock mind you. and it gets whacked today. DUG which i sold last week... i should have obviously kept as a hedge...

Saturday, August 2, 2008

Remember My SFLY & SBUX picks - Better Than MOT/EXPE

At July 30 after-market

I had 2 good picks...
SFLY dropped after hours
SBUX didnt drop but did 2 days later

but what did i choose INSTEAD
I choose MOT/EXPE for July 31 pre-market...
I still have a little Mojo on my picks, but again the execution stunk.

There is no looking back now, but this goes to illustrate no ʻputʻting everything in one basket. A major principle that i broke. At the very least had i spread out the risk with 3 picks i calculated that i would have been in the green... instead of MOT/EXPE whacking be >50% loss to my entire portfolio... crazy...

I kept a few MOT Oct6puts since they have some time to make a comeback. Otherwise I have, DUG calls, YHOO calls/puts, RHT puts and VISN stock.

Friday, August 1, 2008

August Starts with a ....

well another confused day for some...

Oil is up... on nuclear/terrorist stuff. blah blah blah...

ANYWAY... i bought VISN on this huge pounding dip... long term it looks ok. i dont buy into the hype, thus i have a small position in them thus far...

WOW i actually bought a stock for once...

Thursday, July 31, 2008

August 1 after market/August 4 pre-... *sigh* enjoy...

August 1st aftermarket:
-CEGE: biotech.

that was easy...

August 4 pre-market:
-EYE: clever optic ticker. interesting options
-BBD: brazilian bank...
*CMED: china & medical... scary... but its all about the chart
-CTB: tires...
-DISH: bullish option buying today
-HBC: HSBC bank related
-HUM: more health/medical
-ICE: go check Gio site. a common ticker he trades
-GAS: natural gas... after winter, a definite put
*SBAC: they operate some of the wireless towers ur mobile phone rely on in the US, Puerto Rico & Virgin Islands. VERY compelling Long. Look at the chart... the fundamentals do coincide. This is definitely a long play with a breakout due. it got blasted during the dot-com and 9/11. It has fought back gradually. it deserves its own write up. but i got other stuff to do

With that i will go do that other stuff now...