Well, looks like the rally has tamed everything illogical to me.
WYNN is UP... on earnings... like what i said yesterday, "I might regret it" in getting in WYNN. Its Macau (in China) property always bails out WYNN or at least paints a rosy picture for analyst. But it remains that we are in a Global recession. I should have got up early to see if i could have got out of this bad position. Now I have to wait. I was thinking it would open sharply up and fade. Nope... I dont like it... Granted this stock will eventually fall, but it may take a while... If Obama wins the Prez, then i see everything going south... especially casinos.
The point is things that would be affected by the recession are up: consumer/retail, hotels, airlines... totally baffles me.
So while WYNN is up....HK/PCX/Energy down...
So while most tech is down... RIMM is solidly up (they will lose to iPhone/Android)
I am stuck and have to wait for the weekend to clear this up.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Thursday, October 30, 2008
SOLD AAPL CALLS/ HELD HK calls (for now)... UPDATE: WYNN puts
Well, Dec 150 calls @.78... bought @.4 yesterday. Sold... Take that profit. I have an uneasy feeling about tomorrow, especially tech. If the market does shoot up, then there is nothing i can do... Just being content with a nice profit. I am on the lookout for other options. I continue to hold HK. Altho i am thinking of moving the time window farther out. But energy should be back just related to winter alone.
I havent posted any earnings list... its gotten too tedious. There are still opportunities there, but i refuse to get in earnings specific positions unless it is a mover (i.e. AAPL or POT). One that i wish i did get in on was EXPE put, they finally admitted slowing travel. I tried to buy puts on them the last time and lost it all... they basically lied regarding their guidance.
Here is a short list for Friday pre-market: CVX, GG, PGN, WY... as you see mostly energy and gold.
I wait patiently for the next opportunity....
UPDATE (2:13 pm EST)
bought WYNN Nov 45 puts @6.3 ... i totally might regret this move. It is basically a technical move. There is a lot of buying action prior to earnings at the close. AND my hint as to how they will do was EXPE earnings report. Although bookings were up, they refused to give any solid guidance. My guess is that more people go online for deals than ever before. The days of calling a Travel Rep are basically over in booking basic travel... You only go to them for packages. Thus this risky move is based on a possible 'fakeout' and WYNN saying just one wrong thing in their conference call. AGAIN, i might totally regret this move as it will negate much of my gain the past 2 weeks or so.
I havent posted any earnings list... its gotten too tedious. There are still opportunities there, but i refuse to get in earnings specific positions unless it is a mover (i.e. AAPL or POT). One that i wish i did get in on was EXPE put, they finally admitted slowing travel. I tried to buy puts on them the last time and lost it all... they basically lied regarding their guidance.
Here is a short list for Friday pre-market: CVX, GG, PGN, WY... as you see mostly energy and gold.
I wait patiently for the next opportunity....
UPDATE (2:13 pm EST)
bought WYNN Nov 45 puts @6.3 ... i totally might regret this move. It is basically a technical move. There is a lot of buying action prior to earnings at the close. AND my hint as to how they will do was EXPE earnings report. Although bookings were up, they refused to give any solid guidance. My guess is that more people go online for deals than ever before. The days of calling a Travel Rep are basically over in booking basic travel... You only go to them for packages. Thus this risky move is based on a possible 'fakeout' and WYNN saying just one wrong thing in their conference call. AGAIN, i might totally regret this move as it will negate much of my gain the past 2 weeks or so.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Nobody Knows anything... But i digress... Oops forgot UUP puts
Well forget what i said about the Pro Bloggers... I was giving them TOO MUCH PRAISE. I will say that Gio told me to 'keep that put.' All this talk about bottom from the bloggers i follow had me rid of my most useful hedge: FXI. This totally stinks...
What time to learn something like this... i bought the calls too early and sold my only real hedge.
OK... WHEW... got that rant out of the way...
I see no reason to position for earnings (thus forget listing them... what a waste of time) when days are like this... seriously. the sell off in the final hour (while i was sleeping from nightshift), was totally a joke. 'Chart swing trader' is not convince of any direction at this point and is sitting out until things clearly go one way. He acknowledges we 'could' be in for a follow through, but nothing has signaled an 'all in' attitude yet.
Having said that this is what i see
today bot: AAPL Dec 150 call @.40 ... bid .37 /last .51
today bot: HK Nov 22.5 call @.45 ... bid .25 bid/last .5
yesterday bought PCX Dec 30 @.15 ... bid .20/ last .15
my lone put was FXI jan 50: a nonstandard issue but much action. i lost out a 20%, altho in the end it was a 630% gain. Gio warned me to keep my lone put. I am crying about not making more... why? anyway...
Things dont always go the way we plan and neither appear as bad OR good. Especially in THIS market. A possible follow through is still in the making. The thing is it may take weeks versus days. So minus my NOV calls, the rest will play out the year end rally. I might even add to it with POT calls if we start sharp in the red tomorrow. How did i not trade for POT? Anyway, any rally sign MUST include POT... (and i aint talking drugs)
Lastly i forgot to buy puts on UUP... what a no brainer... anyway, i will get in somehow, just when... i have no idea, but yesterday would have been the best time to do so.
What time to learn something like this... i bought the calls too early and sold my only real hedge.
OK... WHEW... got that rant out of the way...
I see no reason to position for earnings (thus forget listing them... what a waste of time) when days are like this... seriously. the sell off in the final hour (while i was sleeping from nightshift), was totally a joke. 'Chart swing trader' is not convince of any direction at this point and is sitting out until things clearly go one way. He acknowledges we 'could' be in for a follow through, but nothing has signaled an 'all in' attitude yet.
Having said that this is what i see
today bot: AAPL Dec 150 call @.40 ... bid .37 /last .51
today bot: HK Nov 22.5 call @.45 ... bid .25 bid/last .5
yesterday bought PCX Dec 30 @.15 ... bid .20/ last .15
my lone put was FXI jan 50: a nonstandard issue but much action. i lost out a 20%, altho in the end it was a 630% gain. Gio warned me to keep my lone put. I am crying about not making more... why? anyway...
Things dont always go the way we plan and neither appear as bad OR good. Especially in THIS market. A possible follow through is still in the making. The thing is it may take weeks versus days. So minus my NOV calls, the rest will play out the year end rally. I might even add to it with POT calls if we start sharp in the red tomorrow. How did i not trade for POT? Anyway, any rally sign MUST include POT... (and i aint talking drugs)
Lastly i forgot to buy puts on UUP... what a no brainer... anyway, i will get in somehow, just when... i have no idea, but yesterday would have been the best time to do so.
SOLD FXI put/ BOUGHT HK & AAPL calls
Sold my FXI put... held MSFT/BYD puts.
Bought HK Nov 22.5 call & AAPL Dec 150 call.
If this rally will carry through the year, these strikes will hit. I missed getting in on POT calls this morning... i wasted time selling FXI.
Bought HK Nov 22.5 call & AAPL Dec 150 call.
If this rally will carry through the year, these strikes will hit. I missed getting in on POT calls this morning... i wasted time selling FXI.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
PRO BLOGGERS VS. CNBC/BLOOMBERG/CRAMERites
PRO blogger caught this rally... the ones i followed all saw it coming, some more doubtful than others, but at least positioned for it to happen.
SLOPEOFHOPE.com (using Fibs)
iBankcoin.com...
-especially FLY (unsure of his methods)
- and Gio (VIX study/IBD)
Stockbee.blogspot.com (diwali... it's just a day, but he bought Monday.) He uses IBD as one of his tools
honorable mention: Chartswingtrader.com (he didnt buy, but he didnt lose in adding more puts)
i do look at other blogs once in awhile... but these are the tops in performance.
One more thing... GS said that oil would somehow get back to 150 by years end. They said that before the DOW crashed. We may very well see this pan out if a weaker dollar happens from a rate cut and OPEC cuts production again...
SLOPEOFHOPE.com (using Fibs)
iBankcoin.com...
-especially FLY (unsure of his methods)
- and Gio (VIX study/IBD)
Stockbee.blogspot.com (diwali... it's just a day, but he bought Monday.) He uses IBD as one of his tools
honorable mention: Chartswingtrader.com (he didnt buy, but he didnt lose in adding more puts)
i do look at other blogs once in awhile... but these are the tops in performance.
One more thing... GS said that oil would somehow get back to 150 by years end. They said that before the DOW crashed. We may very well see this pan out if a weaker dollar happens from a rate cut and OPEC cuts production again...
BEAR RALLY... Possibilities...
Tim is saying we are in the midst of a rally that will carry us to the end of the year. Well, i have like 2 calls, one bought yesterday and the other YHOO as a spec for a buy out from someone. I would vote for AAPL to eat them up to guard against GOOG since they now compete in the mobile space. My calls have been waiting for some action and i got them cheap. If Tim is right, it will be easier to trade the rest of this year. But i feel the best direction will come when the next PREZ is picked. I could care less who wins...
I think the GDP this thursday might be the last gasp for the bears to cash in. Thus, i held one FXI put. I am wondering if i should have sold it anyway... but i am NOT a trader. So, jumping full head into puts at the sessions end today in not my DNA nor was my buying calls yesterday(shoulda bought an index call instead of PCX).
So, from my experience the following REALLY SPIKE from alot of buying. So, believe me i am scanning the calls on these top perfomers from their respective sectors
tech/telcom: AAPL, RIMM
internet: GOOG, BIDU
ag: MON, POT
energy: PCX, HK, FSLR.
AND if you want to get in on monthly dividends... HTE, PWE, PVX. They are indeed cheap. for example if you bought HTE which pays out about $.25/share. 1000 shares = guaranteed $250 a month. these are the stocks that i am seriously looking into buying.
I think the GDP this thursday might be the last gasp for the bears to cash in. Thus, i held one FXI put. I am wondering if i should have sold it anyway... but i am NOT a trader. So, jumping full head into puts at the sessions end today in not my DNA nor was my buying calls yesterday(shoulda bought an index call instead of PCX).
So, from my experience the following REALLY SPIKE from alot of buying. So, believe me i am scanning the calls on these top perfomers from their respective sectors
tech/telcom: AAPL, RIMM
internet: GOOG, BIDU
ag: MON, POT
energy: PCX, HK, FSLR.
AND if you want to get in on monthly dividends... HTE, PWE, PVX. They are indeed cheap. for example if you bought HTE which pays out about $.25/share. 1000 shares = guaranteed $250 a month. these are the stocks that i am seriously looking into buying.
SOLD FXI/SNE PUTS
SOLD FXI @3.7 bummer. the thing closed @ 6.2 yesterday... (bought @.64, wouldve been a 960% gain)...but letting the other ride.
Sold SNE Nov 20 @ 1.4... bummer too it was 2.25 yesterday. still a 100%+ profit (bought @.55)
Got home from nightshift... shoulda set a trigger sell order on both... i wake up and the rally happens while i am sleeping. can you imagine if i didnt set my alarm to wake up early. but man, same mistakes... argh... i have one call option (PCX) but it is too far out of the money at this point. i should have done a hedge with FXI calls.
In any case my gut feeling to sell yesterday was ignored and i paid the price. if anything a hedge would have been a wise thing being that the eventuality is that the market will without doubt head south by weeks end.
I will only post Wednesday aftermarket. With the FED in play tomorrow i saw no point...
Sold SNE Nov 20 @ 1.4... bummer too it was 2.25 yesterday. still a 100%+ profit (bought @.55)
Got home from nightshift... shoulda set a trigger sell order on both... i wake up and the rally happens while i am sleeping. can you imagine if i didnt set my alarm to wake up early. but man, same mistakes... argh... i have one call option (PCX) but it is too far out of the money at this point. i should have done a hedge with FXI calls.
In any case my gut feeling to sell yesterday was ignored and i paid the price. if anything a hedge would have been a wise thing being that the eventuality is that the market will without doubt head south by weeks end.
I will only post Wednesday aftermarket. With the FED in play tomorrow i saw no point...
Awaiting Consumer Confidence... Fed tomorrow.
This will be the catalyst to whether its a huge rally or a whimper. The global market was up. I have no idea what the FED rate cut will do for the market. Its a no win situation for the FED. Cut rates and devalue the $US or leave rates and have the market continue on its slide. Dont know.
For now my positions are a hold, altho i did wish i sold SNE puts yesterday with the possibility of buying it cheaper today. I will post Wednesdays Premarket earnings today, and if i have time, the aftermarket stuff as well.
For now my positions are a hold, altho i did wish i sold SNE puts yesterday with the possibility of buying it cheaper today. I will post Wednesdays Premarket earnings today, and if i have time, the aftermarket stuff as well.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Tuesday Aftermarket... enjoy...
Tuesday aftermarket, get in just before the market closes... or dont. FED talks wednesday... i am waiting on UUP puts
RNT: retails/rents computers/furnture,etc
ACE: insurance
ALGN: 'invisalign' braces for teeth
AMX: latin telecom power
APOL: educational services
ARRS: software: broadband, media, internet
BXP: real estate
CTX: residential construction...
CPHD: Scientific & Technical instruments
CBI: deal with liquified gases/oil & tanks
CMP: Ag chemicals
DRIV: Internet software/services
DENN: Dennys restaurants
XRAY: dental equipment supplier
DWA: 'Dreamworks'
FISV: Biz software & services
FLS: manufacturers of pump/flow equipment
FMC: chemicals
JLL: property management
KSU: rail transportation US & Mexico
LNC: life insurance
MTW: farm/construction machinery
MCK: drug wholesales
NLC: water treatment
NAL: regional bank
RFMD: semiconductor
STM: semiconductor/broadline
SKT: REIT retail
ULTI: internet software/services
URI: rental & leasing services
VPRT: on-line services for small business
WRB: insurance property/casualty
WLT: metals/minerals/coal/nat gas
WTS: sells/distributes filtered water
RNT: retails/rents computers/furnture,etc
ACE: insurance
ALGN: 'invisalign' braces for teeth
AMX: latin telecom power
APOL: educational services
ARRS: software: broadband, media, internet
BXP: real estate
CTX: residential construction...
CPHD: Scientific & Technical instruments
CBI: deal with liquified gases/oil & tanks
CMP: Ag chemicals
DRIV: Internet software/services
DENN: Dennys restaurants
XRAY: dental equipment supplier
DWA: 'Dreamworks'
FISV: Biz software & services
FLS: manufacturers of pump/flow equipment
FMC: chemicals
JLL: property management
KSU: rail transportation US & Mexico
LNC: life insurance
MTW: farm/construction machinery
MCK: drug wholesales
NLC: water treatment
NAL: regional bank
RFMD: semiconductor
STM: semiconductor/broadline
SKT: REIT retail
ULTI: internet software/services
URI: rental & leasing services
VPRT: on-line services for small business
WRB: insurance property/casualty
WLT: metals/minerals/coal/nat gas
WTS: sells/distributes filtered water
Bought PCX call... stupid MAR/HOT
Bought PCX Dec 30 call @.15... a cold winter pure spec.
MAR/HOT... you know the one i was crying about missing puts on earnings. well, the eventual thing happened. sold off today. that stinks. i had'em in my sights and failed to buy puts on HOT conference call that caused it to go green last week. pitiful on my part...
MAR/HOT... you know the one i was crying about missing puts on earnings. well, the eventual thing happened. sold off today. that stinks. i had'em in my sights and failed to buy puts on HOT conference call that caused it to go green last week. pitiful on my part...
That's all Volks... Volkswagon lotto...
VOW.DE aka Volkswagon
Porsche is lifting its stake in Volkswagon (the largest car maker in Europe) to 75% by the end of 2009.
The stock ranges from $325 to $625. It is at $520 as i type this.
Anyway, good companies are still companies despite the economy. And the thinking on Porsche part is will they have enough rich people to buy Porsche? So why not get in on the middle income target in Volkswagon.
These things still happen. Congrats to any trader who got in on this...
Porsche is lifting its stake in Volkswagon (the largest car maker in Europe) to 75% by the end of 2009.
The stock ranges from $325 to $625. It is at $520 as i type this.
Anyway, good companies are still companies despite the economy. And the thinking on Porsche part is will they have enough rich people to buy Porsche? So why not get in on the middle income target in Volkswagon.
These things still happen. Congrats to any trader who got in on this...
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Pre-Market Tuesday... US$ & OIL
In advance of Tuesday earnings reports... enjoy
Premarket Tuesday
ACH: the chart reminds me of the tech bubble charts in 2000
AMED: homehealth/hospice... patient care svc.
ASH: chemicals
BMS: consumer goods/packaging...hitting lows
BMRN: biotech...
BYD: casinos/gaming
BP: produces(exploration/refining) & transports energy
CRS: manufactures/fabrication/distribution specialty metals
CEPH: drug producer
CRDN: industrial sector
CHKP: I.T./software
CEO: chinese oil...
CVG: tech/biz software
ELNK: earthlink
ETR: regional utilities/electric
HMC: Honda... Japan has problems. Good cars tho
MSO: Martha Steward
MLM: general bldg materials... bearish
MAS: lumber/wood... bearish
MOLX: electronics (i.e. SIM cards, internal antenna, etc)... toss up
NETL(4:05pm EST): semiconductor
OXY: oil
PC: panasonic
PCX: coal... hey its getting to winter... Jan 30 calls look like a good spec
RCI: Rogers Communication... Canada AT&T
RCL: cruise line... bearish... is it priced in tho?
STD: banks... in spain/europe/latin america
SAP: enterprise/software
SCHN: steel
SEPR: drug manufacturer
SKM: south Korean telecom
SII: oil/gas
SBIB: regional bank
TASR: Taser... remember them when they were a high flyer?
TIN: Paper products
TPP: oil/gas
EL: Estee Lauder... retail/consumer
IPG: international advertising agency
MHP: McGraw Hills...
UA: is this the bottom? they are gaining mindshare in the pros
X: steel
USG: general bldg materials
VLO: former Cramer fav
VSH: diversified electronics
WDR: investment/brokerage regional firm
WHR: 'whirlpool'
there are a ton of Chinese Pink Sheets... ha... i keep holding my FXI puts
DOLLAR/OIL
- is it time to buy puts in UUP? maybe... i will wait for wednesday if rate cut happens
- USO calls/DUG puts are starting to look good... thx to OPEC spec, but i would wait for the FED on wednesday
Premarket Tuesday
ACH: the chart reminds me of the tech bubble charts in 2000
AMED: homehealth/hospice... patient care svc.
ASH: chemicals
BMS: consumer goods/packaging...hitting lows
BMRN: biotech...
BYD: casinos/gaming
BP: produces(exploration/refining) & transports energy
CRS: manufactures/fabrication/distribution specialty metals
CEPH: drug producer
CRDN: industrial sector
CHKP: I.T./software
CEO: chinese oil...
CVG: tech/biz software
ELNK: earthlink
ETR: regional utilities/electric
HMC: Honda... Japan has problems. Good cars tho
MSO: Martha Steward
MLM: general bldg materials... bearish
MAS: lumber/wood... bearish
MOLX: electronics (i.e. SIM cards, internal antenna, etc)... toss up
NETL(4:05pm EST): semiconductor
OXY: oil
PC: panasonic
PCX: coal... hey its getting to winter... Jan 30 calls look like a good spec
RCI: Rogers Communication... Canada AT&T
RCL: cruise line... bearish... is it priced in tho?
STD: banks... in spain/europe/latin america
SAP: enterprise/software
SCHN: steel
SEPR: drug manufacturer
SKM: south Korean telecom
SII: oil/gas
SBIB: regional bank
TASR: Taser... remember them when they were a high flyer?
TIN: Paper products
TPP: oil/gas
EL: Estee Lauder... retail/consumer
IPG: international advertising agency
MHP: McGraw Hills...
UA: is this the bottom? they are gaining mindshare in the pros
X: steel
USG: general bldg materials
VLO: former Cramer fav
VSH: diversified electronics
WDR: investment/brokerage regional firm
WHR: 'whirlpool'
there are a ton of Chinese Pink Sheets... ha... i keep holding my FXI puts
DOLLAR/OIL
- is it time to buy puts in UUP? maybe... i will wait for wednesday if rate cut happens
- USO calls/DUG puts are starting to look good... thx to OPEC spec, but i would wait for the FED on wednesday
Friday, October 24, 2008
Pre/Aftermarket for Monday, Oct 27... and the weaker dollar
Enjoy...
PRE-MARKET
-ACI: coals
-BOH: solid bank...
-EXP: gypsum wall & cement... uh no ones buildings
-FPL: produces electricity via oil, air, nuclear
-HPC: chemical company
-HUM: huge health/benefits plan provider in the U.S.
-IBN: large bank in India
-L: Loews
-PENN: gaming properties
-SLG: Reality
-SOHU: BIDU jr.
-TXRH: restaurant chain
-TDW: offshore supply services/vessels for offshore energy, etc
-VZ: so, how many customers did they lose because of iPhone
AFTERMARKET
-BWLD: toss up
-CAJ: all the puts are in the money
-CF: fertilizers
-CHH: someone bought exactly 3000 Nov 20 puts today (Friday)
-EWBC: a small bank
-EXEL: biotech company near all time low ($3)
-FIS: processing, transaction outsourcing services for financial companies
-PCL: timber/wood... "timber"... bearish
-VRTX: pharmaceutical
-WMS: gaming/casino machines... bearish of course
DOLLAR:
-i placed a limit order to buy puts on UUP... dollar is worth nothing. my wife and i have some paper yen at home from our wedding 1 1/2 yr ago. We are holding them for an even better exchange.
AAPL:
-wish i held my Nov 65 put... argh...
PRE-MARKET
-ACI: coals
-BOH: solid bank...
-EXP: gypsum wall & cement... uh no ones buildings
-FPL: produces electricity via oil, air, nuclear
-HPC: chemical company
-HUM: huge health/benefits plan provider in the U.S.
-IBN: large bank in India
-L: Loews
-PENN: gaming properties
-SLG: Reality
-SOHU: BIDU jr.
-TXRH: restaurant chain
-TDW: offshore supply services/vessels for offshore energy, etc
-VZ: so, how many customers did they lose because of iPhone
AFTERMARKET
-BWLD: toss up
-CAJ: all the puts are in the money
-CF: fertilizers
-CHH: someone bought exactly 3000 Nov 20 puts today (Friday)
-EWBC: a small bank
-EXEL: biotech company near all time low ($3)
-FIS: processing, transaction outsourcing services for financial companies
-PCL: timber/wood... "timber"... bearish
-VRTX: pharmaceutical
-WMS: gaming/casino machines... bearish of course
DOLLAR:
-i placed a limit order to buy puts on UUP... dollar is worth nothing. my wife and i have some paper yen at home from our wedding 1 1/2 yr ago. We are holding them for an even better exchange.
AAPL:
-wish i held my Nov 65 put... argh...
Thursday, October 23, 2008
SOLD & BOUGHT MSFT ... GLAD I MISSED MAR/HOT... (LATE NIGHT UPDAT)
Sold Nov 20 put @1.33, Bought Nov 15 put @.25... not likely but it would be a new low. so, its my spec for the day. Grabbed the profit... For now the street expects them to meet and guide low. But if they miss... the stock will be shot to pieces. Just like Vistas compatibility problems.
I am glad i bought SNE when i did. it is up 100% just today. They report next week.
AAPL of course is fading since earnings report... i am considering selling NOV 65 put... set a sell trigger.
As for MAR/HOT that i cried about yesterday. I cant believe that they held up despite the stink report. It actually shot up today. Whats up with that? Anyway, i now have another opportunity to get in.
Outside of JNPR which is already down, i found nothing interesting in terms of put buying today. There is nothing but Chinese companies (pink sheets) that dominate Fridays pre/aftermarket. So i get to take a break.
Monday though is another long list i will look at tonight.
UPDATE: i did sell my lone AAPL put for a 20% gain. if i held just a few minutes longer it would have been better. the MSFT spec i threw out there really was free as i banked on it with the earlier put i sold. casinos sold off today, and i have no idea why. WYNN reports Oct 30. So, i am hoping for a nice rally on Casinos prior to their horrible report. but then again i thought hotels would sink. it was already priced in. SNE is taking a huge hit in Asia as i type this 1030pm HST. They are revising earnings for the year prior to their report Oct 29.
I am glad i bought SNE when i did. it is up 100% just today. They report next week.
AAPL of course is fading since earnings report... i am considering selling NOV 65 put... set a sell trigger.
As for MAR/HOT that i cried about yesterday. I cant believe that they held up despite the stink report. It actually shot up today. Whats up with that? Anyway, i now have another opportunity to get in.
Outside of JNPR which is already down, i found nothing interesting in terms of put buying today. There is nothing but Chinese companies (pink sheets) that dominate Fridays pre/aftermarket. So i get to take a break.
Monday though is another long list i will look at tonight.
UPDATE: i did sell my lone AAPL put for a 20% gain. if i held just a few minutes longer it would have been better. the MSFT spec i threw out there really was free as i banked on it with the earlier put i sold. casinos sold off today, and i have no idea why. WYNN reports Oct 30. So, i am hoping for a nice rally on Casinos prior to their horrible report. but then again i thought hotels would sink. it was already priced in. SNE is taking a huge hit in Asia as i type this 1030pm HST. They are revising earnings for the year prior to their report Oct 29.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Missed MAR/HOT
Man i was 'stuck' between deciding which strike to go with... the asks got a little out of hand...
I have no choice but wait for tomorrow if i even have a chance. I will use HOT earnings via MAR puts. My order just missed the bell today otherwise. BUT I REALLY REGRET NOT GETTING IN... its one of the few positions with low risk/high reward deals. The thing is i cant figure out for sure if they report before the open as it says on one site and another says 1030 am. Now i have to get up 3:15 am HST to find out
My AAPL put was one of the few times i was able to go against a spike rather than with it. And as much as i like Apple the company and their fundamentals, i couldnt ignore the stock action. This put is up 50% today as a result of the fade.
The overall market has spoken that no stock is immune to macro-eco momentum. A number of companies beat the street handily with good guidance only to have them ripped. The economy stinks and the earnings season is going just as most of us thought... in the red...
I have no choice but wait for tomorrow if i even have a chance. I will use HOT earnings via MAR puts. My order just missed the bell today otherwise. BUT I REALLY REGRET NOT GETTING IN... its one of the few positions with low risk/high reward deals. The thing is i cant figure out for sure if they report before the open as it says on one site and another says 1030 am. Now i have to get up 3:15 am HST to find out
My AAPL put was one of the few times i was able to go against a spike rather than with it. And as much as i like Apple the company and their fundamentals, i couldnt ignore the stock action. This put is up 50% today as a result of the fade.
The overall market has spoken that no stock is immune to macro-eco momentum. A number of companies beat the street handily with good guidance only to have them ripped. The economy stinks and the earnings season is going just as most of us thought... in the red...
Bought AAPL put... Waiting on HOT/MAR...
Well, AAPL gaps up. I buy a put... Nov 65 put @.40... maybe i should have waited for it to get cheaper. but bought the put based on recent history of stocks post earnings and NOT anything to do with AAPL the company. They are crushing the smartphone competition. If only they would open up to T-Mobile and maybe Verizon, then i think total domination in the U.S. mobile space would be in order.
My other puts are in a hold position... FXI, MSFT, SNE. I would like to add HOT to the mix as well. I may have to wait for the closing bell... I wished i sucked it up and bought that Nov 15 put yesterday @.45 rather than limit order for .40
My other puts are in a hold position... FXI, MSFT, SNE. I would like to add HOT to the mix as well. I may have to wait for the closing bell... I wished i sucked it up and bought that Nov 15 put yesterday @.45 rather than limit order for .40
OOPS... missed listing a bunch of earnings for Wednesday. Relisted...
Well, i must have been half asleep when i posted my list of Wednesday Pre/Aftermarket earnings list. Anyway, today we will see if AAPL will have a strong day or just a spike and fade.
HERE IS THE RE-LISTING. granted the its too late for Pre-Market stuff but interesting to watch nonetheless.
PRE-MARKET:
ATI, AMZN, BHI, COP, KCI, NITE, MCD, MRK, NFX, NOC, NWA, R, BA, TRV, WB, WLP, WYE
AFTERMARKET:
AMGN: sector has been good
AMZN: toss up
BIDU: i would rather buy puts on a spike
CDNS: automation for electronics
CMG: too beat up
CRUS: bearish on their sector, but has it bottomed
CTXS: SEE ABOVE
CGN: oil/gas
FNF: insurance/financial/insurance
IRBT: nice idea... not enough marketing. HA! only puts available
KNX: transports comods.
LSI: semi sector
NE: oil/gas
NTRI: weight loss
NUVA: healthcare
OSIP: pharaceutical
RRC: oil/gas
SKX: shoes/retail
*SLM: education finance. money loser to me.. LOW RISK PUT(jan 5 put)
TER: semi sector
TEX: farm equipment industry
ALL: are you in 'good hands'?
TMK: life insurance
now i remember why i stopped doing this... this was long.
HERE IS THE RE-LISTING. granted the its too late for Pre-Market stuff but interesting to watch nonetheless.
PRE-MARKET:
ATI, AMZN, BHI, COP, KCI, NITE, MCD, MRK, NFX, NOC, NWA, R, BA, TRV, WB, WLP, WYE
AFTERMARKET:
AMGN: sector has been good
AMZN: toss up
BIDU: i would rather buy puts on a spike
CDNS: automation for electronics
CMG: too beat up
CRUS: bearish on their sector, but has it bottomed
CTXS: SEE ABOVE
CGN: oil/gas
FNF: insurance/financial/insurance
IRBT: nice idea... not enough marketing. HA! only puts available
KNX: transports comods.
LSI: semi sector
NE: oil/gas
NTRI: weight loss
NUVA: healthcare
OSIP: pharaceutical
RRC: oil/gas
SKX: shoes/retail
*SLM: education finance. money loser to me.. LOW RISK PUT(jan 5 put)
TER: semi sector
TEX: farm equipment industry
ALL: are you in 'good hands'?
TMK: life insurance
now i remember why i stopped doing this... this was long.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Possible FAKEOUT... Follow Through will confirm this tomorrow
Well, AAPL sold into earnings. Usually it stays flat day of earnings... Today was a little different. The suspicious buying right after the closing bell added to evidence of a 'fake-out'. The big boys scared the Long buyers into selling... I am not the least bit surprised. I also will not be surprised if AAPL went lower in a few days, even if the general market went up on the possible upcoming added bail out plan.
I have no time to mess with this nonsense. Thus, my meager $$$ went elsewhere... MSFT put (hold), SNE put (bought), HOT (attempted buy). I have moved on to the next opportunity. No regrets... just more experience.
UPDATE 11:55 PM HST
Dissecting the numbers for AAPL has been confusing for some. Especially with the way iPhone is being accounted for. But Steve Jobs special visit on their earnings conference said one thing... iPhone (which is Mac OS X) has gone beyond its sibling products. It accounts for nearly 40% of their revenue or $4.6 Billion. They sold 6.9 M 3G iPhones this Q. Can you imagine if they pull of their goal of 40 M iPhones sold next year. Apple is a monster... They would be even bigger if it had not been for exclusive contracts with AT&T and Orange. Competition from Android & Blackberry Storm will keep Apple from getting lax. But the iPhone is way ahead at this point. And just think, the desktop/laptop portion of their biz keeps going at 30% growth YOY. It is no wonder that AAPL gapped up afterhours.
Know this tho, i will eventually buy puts in anticipation of the Longs selling the stock on a spike.
I have no time to mess with this nonsense. Thus, my meager $$$ went elsewhere... MSFT put (hold), SNE put (bought), HOT (attempted buy). I have moved on to the next opportunity. No regrets... just more experience.
UPDATE 11:55 PM HST
Dissecting the numbers for AAPL has been confusing for some. Especially with the way iPhone is being accounted for. But Steve Jobs special visit on their earnings conference said one thing... iPhone (which is Mac OS X) has gone beyond its sibling products. It accounts for nearly 40% of their revenue or $4.6 Billion. They sold 6.9 M 3G iPhones this Q. Can you imagine if they pull of their goal of 40 M iPhones sold next year. Apple is a monster... They would be even bigger if it had not been for exclusive contracts with AT&T and Orange. Competition from Android & Blackberry Storm will keep Apple from getting lax. But the iPhone is way ahead at this point. And just think, the desktop/laptop portion of their biz keeps going at 30% growth YOY. It is no wonder that AAPL gapped up afterhours.
Know this tho, i will eventually buy puts in anticipation of the Longs selling the stock on a spike.
AAPL... TOO FAST FOR ME... BOUGHT ELSEWHERE
The plan was to buy puts today. But they opened red... I am still hoping that it opens hard to the low end tomorrow so i can buy cheaper calls. I would be surprised as i said in a previous post if they beat the streets GUIDANCE... they did it last year. In any case, like all holiday seasons, i think AAPL will end higher as the year ends. But i will not jump into any puts... maybe this is a fakeout to get calls holders to sell... if it is then its ok. i have other 'options' to get in on. Besides, AAPL will go down in a few days even if the afterhours end with a gap up. So, there is always another opportunity. Just possibly not as good as it stand here. Was looking at the Jan 160 call & Apr 190 look good to me... too late as i look at the clock. I look forward to their report...
UPDATE:
In fact looking at the after-hours prior to earnings there is some bottom buying (4:16 pm EST)
Thus, here are my 'better' selections for my circumstances...
SNE
There was unusual put option action in SNE. Its in the red today yet one of the puts fell 60%. Well, i went ahead and bought it.
HOT
I am trying to get in on a Nov 15 put. Is the economic situation priced in? Maybe. So, i have a limit order. It should remain cheap enough for me to get in tomorrow. if not then i will kick myself again.
UPDATE:
In fact looking at the after-hours prior to earnings there is some bottom buying (4:16 pm EST)
Thus, here are my 'better' selections for my circumstances...
SNE
There was unusual put option action in SNE. Its in the red today yet one of the puts fell 60%. Well, i went ahead and bought it.
HOT
I am trying to get in on a Nov 15 put. Is the economic situation priced in? Maybe. So, i have a limit order. It should remain cheap enough for me to get in tomorrow. if not then i will kick myself again.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Wednesday Pre-Market/After-Market... And OPEC
I realize it is still nowhere near wednesday. but i figured i'll put a heads up for myself and anyone who is still looking at my sad blog. I will post these despite not being very interested in getting in any of them. But these can all move quickly in either direction.
Pre-Market:
AMZN: the internet version of Walmart. they might surprise this holiday quarter.
GSK: another pharmaceutical giant
KMB: health care supplies. its a tough biz, alot of competition in one hospital i know very well.
Aftermarket:
FFIV: networking... basically tech/enterprise.
ALL: insurance and some banking. 'are you in good hands?'
VAR: cancer therapy systems. interesting, there seems to be some option call action.
Thursday is much more interesting to me and a much longer list of big names...
OPEC
hey, i really thought they were going to do this before it got to the 70s. But cutting production was not at all a surprise.
Pre-Market:
AMZN: the internet version of Walmart. they might surprise this holiday quarter.
GSK: another pharmaceutical giant
KMB: health care supplies. its a tough biz, alot of competition in one hospital i know very well.
Aftermarket:
FFIV: networking... basically tech/enterprise.
ALL: insurance and some banking. 'are you in good hands?'
VAR: cancer therapy systems. interesting, there seems to be some option call action.
Thursday is much more interesting to me and a much longer list of big names...
OPEC
hey, i really thought they were going to do this before it got to the 70s. But cutting production was not at all a surprise.
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