WINDOWS 7!!!! NO TRANSLATION REQUIRED...

Finally, what the combination smartphone that I have been talking about

Motorola finally figured out that they should give Android some love.

Android needs a phone maker that has design expertise and the ability to produce a sleek phone while incorporating the O.S.

Check it out


anyway, the iPhone is still hands down the best... i already believe that Apple has a successor to the iPhone 3GS... if you studied their product roadmaps regarding the iPods, you will notice just enough 'new' features and enhancements at either the same or slightly lower price points... Apple probably already has a 'super' smartphone - but why release it when the competition is still catching up to the original iPhone 3G or even in some cases the original iPhone.

But as long as AT&T is in the mix... i refuse to jump ship. i mean common, $30 data plan?

By the way... it looks like DUG will have difficulty as long as the $U.S. keeps sinking. thus, i do believe that FXP, SKF is a better. The unemployment mixed with inflation... big time trouble awaits. the crash may not be as quick as the Fall 2008, but it will be pretty close... and likely BIGGER...

Consumer confidence... propanganda'd up...

Consumers are finding confidence in continuing to spend. Granted it seems finally common sense has entered the picture.

Yet we see these incredible deals when it comes to starting a new credit card...

Look this economy is not in reality getting better. Its true that the bear crashes of the last year and half or so were over-reaction, but reflect the fact that there are tons of people out there with no jobs... homeless... collecting from a govt that is broke.

In Hawaii, 1 of 11... collect food stamps... WHAT? yes 1 of every 11 persons supposedly collect food stamps in Hawaii. That is just another example where the govt is already trying to increase taxes to make up for lost income... but the conundrum(spelling?) is that citizens are using more govt resources than ever before. Somethings gotta give.

Now its not like i like seeing a bunch of homeless/jobless people around. There are people who lost pretty well paying jobs and have 3 kids, a mortgage and car payments.

In the end.. I continue to keep my life simple... and pay of debt as quickly as i can without cutting into having a 'normal' life.

DUG/FXP are still on the radar. it briefly played with trying to fall below 15 today. Nope... The oil rally may at the very least be sputtering. I have a few $ to get some long calls on DUG. S&P may very well get to 1300... but beyond that? i really doubt it. So, i am happy for the slow crawl on this rally. just to allow me more time to be a fool and jump back in the market with the few $.

Ahhh...

Another day... another bear rally... another "we are close to getting out of the recession" speech...

well, i officially will have another loan paid off before months end.

DUG as i have been pushing just dipped below 16. I wish i had $ to buy some... but hey i am in no rush.

A buddy of mine is busy making coin... follow him at ibankcoin.com/gioblog.

I have neither the discipline nor the attention span to keep up with him.

Anyway, my wife found a few old papers... among them my original purchase of AAPL @20.14 sometime in 1998. of course my history of trying to make up for the fact that i didnt understand how much more $ i could have made from 2004 to Jan 2006 using options. Thus, i sold off my precious shares to enter option calls instead. And... there was my ultimate failure. Entering a trade(s) that i didnt fully understand. Some of this was Greed(who wouldnt want to semi-retirement) and some was just plain finding a fast way to pay off a few loans after getting married, her school loans and my dumb credit loan i thought i could use to leverage a trade. At least the ring/wedding/honeymoon were all paid off this year.

In the end, i still made thousands... and lost them as well. And as this market has taught me... there really is no rush to get back in until i clear up whatever loans we have. that right there will save me a hundred or so alone per month. So, there you go. Preservation...

And I still believe we have another bear window nearing (thus my love for DUG/FXP etc). You cant convince me that unemployment going forward will improve... (of course they could if these people would humble themselves and take lower paying jobs).

This was a long-winded blog. figured i get it all out. hey maybe DUG can get under $15 (52 wk low was $15)! Again if i only had free capital. The one bull stock? *sigh* AAPL. The one bull sector? alternative energy (one day this Obama friendly sector will be back... for now oil still rules)

Hilarious...

Well, u know i been pushing DUG. But the entry i was originally looking for is <16.

As you see in my last post... i thought maybe 16 was the entry... Maybe it still is? For me, i thought with Asia getting whacked - that DUG would have been sky high (sans the oil surprise supply report). The funny thing is what that report tells me is that Americans are still in denial...

No longer is there panic, but just the mentality that - o.k. if cash for clunkers, printing $US AND bail outs(now via private sector) are continuing... why should i worry.

So, anyway... while i sit back and pay off whatever debts that my wife and i have, i am totally amused how this Market is messing with the minds of bunch of traders.

Again... i am in no rush... this pinball market will still be there when i am ready.

Enjoy the see-saw...
Of course for those of you benefiting from playing both sides, you should be up mightily from the last few days alone.

Wish you bought DUG huh... or any short...

Well, you can think of this a couple ways regarding oil... being that it is seasonal. However, you will have to pay close attention to those hurricanes.

DUG was a buy @$16-ish

Now those monthly oil/energy trusts look mighty cheap... AAV, HTE, etc... i am not sure how much longer they can make the monthly payouts, but if you wanted a 1st entry... you got it today.

I just see some see-sawing for now. But WE ALL KNOW, that the bottom will fall out from under us again... when? who knows. i am just plugging along paying off debt.

The Market will always be there... and so will the opportunities. But if i want a guaranteed way of making $$$$... well, i best start with cutting ALL loses... no more paying loan interests... a few hundred in cutting costs goes a long way in this economy. And why not make my credit score look better. After all, i may need another loan in the future... not what i want necessarily - just being ready it comes.

DUG...

Well... The Wait Continues...

I really dont mind waiting being that i have no free $$$$ to invest. I am busy paying off debt as fast as i can... without working too much at my stressful REAL job.

In any case, i am already wanting to get off the rock again... Why? Well, my 2 1/2 days in Paris wasn't very relaxing - my wife and i were rushing from Musuem to landmark and at times didn't have as much time to enjoy dinner. Either way, Paris is possibe some time next year. I hope the next crash happens (sorry 401K holders), and that way cheap air fares, hotels at 50% off and a better exchange rate.

My wife thinks i should have gotten enough of Europe - she wants me to experience Asia. Speaking of which... i do think they (China that is), is due for some trouble.

It just feels like the unemployment really hasnt hit this country yet. These banks reporting profits are basically reporting whatever little $ they are making after the U.S. tax payer has been paying off THEIR bills.

The charts show we still have some gains left in this bear rally. that 1050 on the S&P is still plausible... if anything, a big move awaits. And the only one I really like has seasonal history and charts showing that some buying action is picking up... in DUG. I would like it under 15. Of course, the charts show it has bounced off 15 a few timnes. In the end, I really have no idea where this market is going for the rest of 2009.

I'm BAAAACK... But will I really get back in..

Well, i decided a couple of days ago to see what that AAPL - China Unicom would do for our NDX... nothing...

Today, MSFT - YHOO deal... nothing...

Looked at a seasonal pick... DUG... as summer break is basically over. it's bounced off 15s solidly... and today broke 17. Much of it has to do with the dollar of course.

I am looking at FXP & DUG.. SKF... you know the big bears are back. I still have FAZ in my pocket portfolio. which is almost worthless. In any case, I was looking at option calls on FXP/DUG/SKF. But as you know this bear rally feels like it has one last gasp before things get suicidal (not for me of course)...

I have basically been paying off debt... plus i just got back from Europe July 16. So, i obviously had no care regarding the market.

I still see the S&P trying to get to 1000 (the Fib exists in the 985/1050 range). And many are pointing to 10K on the Dow. Me thinks not...

Anyway, I am back... a richer for cutting down my finance charges... but poorer for the year for getting swindled in this market... Am I a sucker if I come back to it with my limited time and limited patience?

*Sigh* The Market Continues to be Manipulated

Well... Reports surface that Apples new iPhone G3-S, pre-order units sold out! But as you know the market is down today. Dont get me wrong i totally want my bear position to get back in play...

I do foresee (like many others), that Apple will open up the iPhone to Verizon at the very least. They have the leverage to prove that the iPhone will retain customers. They can always threaten to remove the phone from any carrier if they dont comply in some way.

Apple also finally dropped prices across the board for their laptops. That gives you a HUGE indication of where they think this economy is going in the next few months/quarters. I hope they do the same for the desktops as well. (I want to buy my wife an iMac and hopefully a cheaper 24 inch will lead to covering the cost of VMware Fusion - *sigh* Windows still required)

Anyway, i have a sleeping put that will expire in July...hopefully it catches fire by then. It acts more as an insurance policy in that portfolio. I still have FAZ sitting around as well in another portfolio. So... thats it...

Europe awaits in about 3 weeks... so who cares what happens to the market while i am away...

MSFT... xBOX...PROJECT NATAL Impressive...

MSFT finally has something "Apple-ish".

They weren't the first to develop the "Minority Report-like" interface... But the demo was very impressive. Sony had something similar called "eye-toy". But several observers have mentioned that Natal is more comprehensive and incorporates voice command.

The fact is there was are still questions:
1) nothing about how much this upgrade or addition to an existing xBox will cost
2) the SDK is still in the works

However, MSFT was right to present this now... it doesn't seem like the Vaporware of the past. The thing is this Natal thing MUST be accurate for gameplay.

In the end, MSFT doesn't hold a patent on this, although they seem ahead of the competition, as was evident by their apparently surprising the rest of the gaming world. So, we shall see how quickly the competition moves to catch or surpass what MSFT is offering.

And the rumors of Apple releasing a gaming device? Sorry to disappoint, but I think it is basically the iPod touch. But knowing how Apple works it's R&D they too could blow us away soon at the WWDC next week.

S&P still on course to 1100.

Bears lie in wait... S&P continues toward 1100

Well, I have no position worth mentioning except my short position that awaits another crash. However, it seems as though this will not happen until the fall.

if it happens earlier... fine. If not, I am waiting with some cash sitting cautiously.

SOLD TAN... BOUGHT M puts

well, retail numbers were worse than expected... and guess what. The market actually LOGICALLY reacted to the news NOT ignored it.

I was a bit bummed that i didnt pay more attention to TAN. Should have sold it at 10. I end up breaking even... despite this last huge rally. Safe to say I will not use TAN as an energy play again - unless volume get >1.5M... which i have never seen.

I used the proceeds of TAN to get some M puts that expire in 2 days. The market will be tested from here on out and may look for a bottom faster than I anticipated. I was thinking the S&P would get up to 1050. That might not be the case.

Thus, if the market finally decides to head lower according to news and NOT Govt hype, then my portfolio will be resurrected (as I thought it would)

Twitter was down for maintenance today, so there are a bunch of people who are probably lost. I for one only publish if i have an actual trade.

laters...

Hurry Up to 1050 will you!!!

S&P continues its upward rally to 1050. Monday again was pull back day/dip buying day. So what else is new?

I just want this market to spike up to 1050 already... being that most of my portfolio sits on the short end.

Alas, my staying to cash prior to FAZ moving from 17-22 in 2 days would have been more prudent, yes? That was some time ago. In fact, I recall Tim of all people talking about this move on the S&P to 1050 before most if not anyone else. I believed him until that dumb FAZ buy... Anyway, my portfolio will continue to haunt me. I have no doubt it will resurrect itself once more.

Some are talking about a 10-20% correction is in the works. Personally, I think maybe a bigger correction, BUT with a huge bear rally of all rallies. And at that time I will commit.... hmm 50%... that would be my diplomatic answer. I have been caught too many times in the wrong direction, and it kills me when I was in the right direction to begin with. HEDGING has never been my strong suit, but in the end, it is a requirement.

See you all @1050 or maybe 1100.

Mondays have been bear days/dip buying... AAPL reports soon.

So, here i am watching all this stuff unfold and i am stuck on the sideline AGAIN!!!

The basic pattern for the last month or so is...
Friday: take profits friday and hedge big with shorts/puts.
Monday: sell puts with a small block to buy bear ETFs on any bounces.
Tues-Thursday: watch your Longs make $$$$.

So, what else is new?
Well, if Tuesday doesnt sell off, then dont expect anything changing from the pattern i just mentioned.

What i learned?
ALWAYS have something ready when this kind of action happens. Inevitably patience wins out... Look at my old posts and see where i benefitted from waiting with a planned exit. But when i just bought with the long view of holding (knowing the next bear crash could come any day... or so i thought like many.), i got pounded to bits.

Anyway, it looks like we will open green Tuesday... any close that stays green heavily ways in the Bulls favor.

One more thing... AAPL reports wednesday - its earnings could totally throw things outta whack... for bears or bulls... stay tuned.

Exchange Rates....

Well, i am looking at Euro vs. $US. Interesting how the $US as nearly 80% versus the Euro. A couple years back on my honeymoon it more like $1 = .67ish Euros. Horrible exchange. But with the US Govt printing money to cover the credit side of things, i better get me a good exchange now.

Its funny how i am treating this exchange thing for my European trip much as i would a traded stock (i dont do FOREX). This year the $US versus Euro has ranged from .75 to .79+. Last year .63 to .78

Following older data it seems that the $US strength really follows the strength of the market. Interesting... Thus, i am thinking that i may need to get a 1/2 position now, as we know a crash may soon be upon us, with another rally to follow.

Of course, the bears will be back, but it may take until 2010 for that to happen. Man, i wished i just bought long term-puts on FAS and FAZ instead....

*sarcasm* North Korea says they will still make bomb-grade plutonium... Market will go up Right?

This market is mental... N.Korea "...we will [keep doing what we want]..."

So far lets see how things have been working out.

Banks that have been bailed out somehow claim a profit! - market up
The unemployment numbers have trended up, but not as bad as thought - market up
Houses not sold at record numbers - market up
North Korea?... Whadda ya think? Market up...

Pay your taxes Wednesday... i filled an extension, maybe i shouldnt, since the govʻt OWES ME money. Anyway, i just gotta hand it off to my CPA and thats it.

Hey, i just got a hang nail!!!... MARKET UP...

Excuse the sarcasm, but this bear rally (though not unexpected) annoys me.

Wake Me Up When This Smokescreen is over...

Obama did his job in boosting the market. Thanks man, my portfolio thought you were going to say those things early on in January. What happened? I was totally long. I then switched to shorting and made up some loss $$$$. But in the end all this talk of "hope" is empty until we see a true reversal of the unemployment numbers.

Anyway, the technicals say we may be headed to 1050... Again... Hello, i thought all this stuff was going to happen 2 weeks ago when i was to cash. And waited patiently for an entry to FAZ while holding on to FAS. NOPE... Timing off on that one.

I am basically stuck with my stupid FAZ. AND my only true long TAN isnt moving much. A tech ETF or at least FAZ puts/FAS calls would have protected my dumb position. ALWAYS HEDGE in volatility.

Wake me up when this stupidity is over. The economy is nowhere out of the woods. And yet the market is ignoring all the bad press and when anyone from the FED or govt has something positive, we get a >3% day.

*YAWN* time to shut down my MAC for tonight.


On a fun note: The NBA...
Congrats to the Cavs for getting the best record. Granted the Lakers seemed uninspired to do it themselves, but they basically could have got it if they really wanted to. LEBRON is the MVP for this year. He learned to improve his game by hanging with Kobe during the Olympics. Smart move. He does need a little more help to get a ring though.
Considering how Jordan kept the 90s Cavs (not to mention most eastern conference teams) from getting to the Finals, it is refreshing to know the Cavs finally have a descent chance of winning it all. If i were Lebron, i would see my options in places like... NYC, (even LA, it aint happening of course... Sorry Kobe, but if Lebron accepted a MLE, what reason would Buss have to keep Kobe.) Anyway. Lebron puts pressure on the Cavs to supply him with winning role players by saying he would consider other cities. He could use a true defensive/rebounding big man (since he already got Mo Williams) and that would be it, they would be the favorites. For now the Lakers Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, Odom quartet is scary... They rarely if ever played at a high level at the same time. If that happened, the Lakers are destined for another dynasty. If not, the Cavs will be there with Orlando being their primary nemesis. The Lakers will be set for the next 3/4 years if they come through this year.

REALITY:
The Market has been kicking my butt for 2 1/2 years... If my accounts go dry... That may be it... I may turn this site to an empty shell of what-ifs and no more early retirement.... I am almost begging that my account doesnt resurrect itself as it has so many times.... i havent been able to manage my account along with work, my wife, my volunteer work, and just the every day stuff. There is this scriptural thought that says: "You cannot slave for two masters.".... very true indeed. Anyway, i am still vested short for the long term.

SHOCKED... WELL KINDA...

This is like the 3rd FAZ crash this year. 107 to 50s... 50s to low30s/hi 20s and now 24 to 10 in less a week. I hate FAZ.

Look i had this thing where i was trying to get out of this FAZ and place emphasis on long puts on FAS. Too late... Anyway, I said in a previous post weeks ago that this rally could find the S&P back to 1050. Before another wicked crash... which apparently might not come until next year...

So, i have no choice but to leave things as they are...

My NOC may puts are dead at this point. i actually let this position ride after selling half the original entry... which actually profited itself for the whole position. Not a lot of $$ but any $20 that turns into $120 in a few days i saw was worth it.

As for my TAN long... it is up huge from a few weeks.

I have a bunch of stuff coming up... a buddies wedding... and just completed 3 weeks or so of my voluntary work making sure a bunch of people were reached with something important which ended April 9. How is that for timing. Anyway, i sit here massively short and whacked.

And i filled an extension for my taxes. It will be $$$$ for me later for my European trip. So, in the end things arent that bad. I truly regret going against my own advice to my co-worker, "If you buy a block of FAZ make sure you buy some puts for insurance." I basically got greedy and went all in... dumb move yet again...

I should truly have an account that goes to $0 and yet it keeps making a come back... That is the Street for you...

Am I convinced the bears are back?

You all know that earnings season will stink... The rally provided awesome entries on SKF, SRS, FAZ, DUG, SCO... i can go on and on with the short ETFs. But in hindsight i wish i went with a LEAP PUT instead on THE LEVERAGED BULLISH ETFs. The 2011 LEAPS actually look pretty cheap.

Anyway, if we somehow finish green, we have a long bear rally... Otherwise, we are set for another bull vs. bear deal with earnings that may be "not as bad" as expected. If we do get earnings that bomb... HELLOOO BEARS AGAIN...

I am totally jealous of you guys getting FAZ<20 & SRS<40...

Waiting game...

Todays action seems blah... i barely look at the market being that i am mainly short financials via FAZ and FAS puts.

The one thing i wish i had a small positionis SRS. I would never have thought things would get below 40. It has never been this low... It peaked last year in the mid 200.

But of all the sectors waiting for the crash i think it is (1) Financials (2)Tech (3) Retail.

Thus, this bear rally looks mighty technical to me. The reality is that we are no better now. If anything all those who avoided getting into debt are now enjoying buying up cheap houses, cheap vacations, cheap electronics. All the stuff the wannabes were buying on credit.

Anyway, i myself am waiting for a particular cruise to really get cheap. If it does I am all aboard.

OWN... FAZ/FAS puts, NOC, TAN...
WATCHING: SRS... and the following sectors.
retail: M, SHLD, TGT
energy: DUG, OIH
tech: SNE, RIMM, AAPL