spooked...

Now i am completely 2nd guessing myself. my adding RIMM Nov115calls would have been perfect late friday. Alas, i got pounded as profit takers came in. I do think itʻs going up on Monday. but the full potential for the trade has been missed. history shows RIMM dips prior to earnings. and i FAILED TO RECOGNIZE that fact.

So, iʻm contemplating my Monday trade... get out of the Nov115 and wait for day of or prior?

itʻs quite dissappointing to miss another sign posted. and watching my Oct120 sink tho still a profit doesnʻt help matters.

GME will be a hold for me til mid january. maybe even 366 days from day bought.

PLAN: take any green on Monday... sell Nov115 and get closer to strike.

The risk/reward was well worth it with Oct120. adding Nov115 unwise...
now i have something i have to wake up for...

if i was a genius...

well, i expected RIMM to go down today. so i shulda sold (yet again)... right?
except iʻm not a genius... sell yesterday...buy today...

so, wut did i learn today?
the street is down on economic data...
iʻll remember that as days when things go on sale for the AAPLs & RIMM.
of whom rich and those with money buy their stuff...
did i leave out BIDU? it has nothing to do w/U.S. PCE/spending...
i shored up my RIMM calls a few days ago and cudv waited for this...

LESSON LEARNED

performance...

i will soon add a performance/tracking for your entertainment. so you can eat ramen(saimin) and get some flying out of your nostrils. my wife is bugging me on the time i spend with this thing (because she wants to know if the time is producing $$$). i will hopefully be able to back track a bit... to the start of my blog...

options?
RIMM:
-oct120calls (bought 9/19@.65)
-nov115calls (bought 9/26@4.035)
GS: jan290 (bought 9/19@.45stop laughing...)
PALM: jan10puts (bought8/13@.20)
LEND: ʻ09jan10puts (bought9/19@.32)

stocks: GME (bot 9/26@58.82)

note: PALM report Oct 1...RIMM Oct 4... fireworks!!!

RIMM shot

RIMM: As you (all 2 of you...that i know of), iʻm waiting anxiously for their earnings next week. iʻve got oct120 & nov115 positions. itʻs been a little slow of late...i expect such going into friday. Monday i think we may see some nice action...



AAPL: iʻm holding my breath. we all could be regretting we didnʻt buy 200strike LEAPS after Jan earnings. uʻd be sitting on some $$$ now. but year after year has proven to me to wait til January(MacWorld), tho after Nov is a good time for short-term calls
SNCR: iʻll grab a small position as i hear iPhone news abroad hitting it big in November...
VMW: no doubt itʻll get 120 by January. i donʻt have enuf $ to go around.
GME: man, another analyst (manipulator) opens his mouth to get the stock down. and i lose before i even own the stock a full day... i briefly thot of puts to protect my position. but this is a long bull no doubt once holiday talk starts. Halo adds interest.
BIDU: things are chillinʻ out a bit, itʻs jus taking a break...
GS: solid. tho ainʻt moving my weak jan calls.

PALM: nice centro smartphone for $99. too bad itʻs sprint. you canʻt compare it to other smartphones. the people who buy them are willing to spend more...
MOT: iʻve added these guys to my watch... tho i donʻt like PALMs new fone, it canʻt be good for the MOT.
LEND: yawn...

i constantly want to add new plays. but my attention span doesnʻt allow it. iʻve sufferred losers play ORCL, DELL, PALM contracts. i will stick to the big boys that move, so despite the bullish statements of INTC, iʻm thinking of instead adding SNDK (reversed head & shoulders, fundamentally, look at all the smartphones coming out with SD slots)...they report Oct 18.

time(ing) is $

Well, i pulled the trigger on RIMM Nov115calls. albeit $50/contract TOO early. and the funny thing is - i knew it! (the one pattern i have noticed is a huge open followed by a tapering off) so, was this an emotional trade? i still felt regrets in selling Jan113.5calls. one of my accounts wouldʻve been up 300%. if this daily pattern continues. then yay!.

AAPL: buy here? nope...tho i knew it past 140 it wud fly...
SNCR: not interested - yet
BIDU: back to earth? or another missed opportunity? iʻll wait for friday to buy. hope it continues the downward slope.
VMW: i am thinking itʻs parent company EMC may be a buy. reports Oct 25.
GS: slow/pokey. itʻll need to string greens for my calls to be back.

PALM: yawn... logics says i shulda added more puts... itʻs only sucking the life out of me
LEND: i am thinking i wasted my time here. i didnʻt do research on how it trades, but with monthly housing news, i took a stab. and i have til 2009

ideas: consider switch to longer RIMM calls if it opens huge to lower risk...

movers getting my attention:
-UA: downgraded. reports oct 30.
-GME: bought shares...itʻs been on fire since april

Discipline is Difficult

i watched AAPL break 150. big volume. at this point any pull back here screems buy. the housing worries are ironically a good thing as it allows one an opportunity to get in. they donʻt immediately affect the company... you can look at each time the credit woes tanked this stock. it preceeded to shoot up the next day.

economic sept calendar includes:
Sep 27 8:30 AM GDP-Final Q2
Sep 27 8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Final Q2
Sep 27 8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/22
Sep 27 10:00 AM Help-Wanted Index Aug
Sep 27 10:00 AM New Home Sales Aug
Sep 28 8:30 AM Personal Income Aug
Sep 28 8:30 AM Personal Spending Aug
Sep 28 8:30 AM Core PCE Inflation Aug
Sep 28 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Sep
Sep 28 10:00 AM Construction Spending
Sep 28 10:00 AM Mich Sentiment Rev. Sep
>>>>>see for yourself if these indicators affect your stock...

BIDU: this might have been the day to get in. iʻm not counting on it. i canʻt afford the contracts.
RIMM: nervously waiting for earnings, itʻs one thing if u buy day b4 but thereʻs a sinking feeling if uʻr riding a far out strike w/no time to bail. also new BBs w/WiFi from Tmobile.
VMW: taking a break...
SNCR: volume not there...green always good
GS: slow but consistent
ORCL: iʻm patient, but will soon sell calls. it was a wasted trade.

PALM: I hate this stock.
LEND: ʻ09puts for a reason...

plan A: stick w/RIMM till earnings(2 days), then switch to AAPL. dump ORCL shares and buy VMW (again) w/some far out calls.

tailed off...then take off

itʻs these moments where i think i could do a better job.

i saw a +46% (one day gain) erased to a smudge. RIMM calls
-it crossed my mind to sell and switch go closer to $$$ in DEC.
-then the risk reward thing came up again, imagine a one day 10 to 20 pt gain aʻ la RIMM (and BIDU), risk a few hundred for a gain of thousands. possible? yes... and this was the reason i sold half the position in the 1st place. AND the fact that i sold Jan113.5 too early.

SNCR took off....it was flatlining, then BOOM!

my jaw continues to drop on BIDU. the contracts are prohibitively pricey... bulls are everywhere here. it may be time to switch from RIMM to BIDU as my major, with AAPL eventually stinking up RIMMs bottom line

ORCL is not a flyer. so oct22.5 maybe wasnʻt a good idea. granted i shoulda sold. yesterday.
lesson: no earnings month options if itʻs not a mover. this lesson taught w/both GS & OCRL. these are nice in themselves

the movers: BIDU, RIMM, AAPL, VMW. SNCR

slimmin losses...letting greens ride...

Iʻve come to expect losses by now. thus, the name (since iʻd like a gain but iʻm so far in the hole that i might as well ride it out)

as expected monday. things start green.
THE BULLS! (from most to least)
-BIDU: canʻt stop this train...tempted to buy any dip.
-RIMM: my selling Jan113.5 calls prior to FED haunts me. but i shall be satisfied w/ Oct120calls for now. iʻm lookinʻ to dec130 calls. someone said theyʻd reach 105 prior to earnings...hmm i think itʻll be more... i will buy some disaster puts prior to earnings. but hope that zeroes out of course.
-VMW: i am lookin at some calls. whatʻs healthy about this stock is it takes a break on itʻs own from time to time. there will be dips to buy
-AAPL: itʻs hard to decide where to buy. goes down as fast as it goes up, it will stay above 140 from here. waiting for earnings tho. i predict itʻll one day smack RIMM in the mouth.
-SNCR: keeping above 40. itʻs been volitile, but itʻs decided a direction.
-GS: financials are slow to build. thez guys are solid.


DA BEARSZ
-PALM: shall be revealed (eventually). moving puts to ʻ09 if ʻ08 turns bad.
-LEND: i hav an ʻ09 put on them. spec
-DELL: i finally sold the loser

frustration/elation

yesterday was so frustrating
-GS ended down on blow out earnings. today...logic prevails, or profit takers yesterday bought back. still off itʻs 52wk hi. graphs show a gradual bullish trend last year.

Excellent play:
-ORCL: bought securities and a small call position. no spikes, just consistent growth even on a quarter thatʻs typically weak for them. i still have to see if VMW somehow affects them in anyway.
-SNCR: didnʻt touch them...itʻs turning into an AAPL of itself volitility wise

Possible panic?:
-RIMM: i bailed at first sign of trouble. look at it today... but iʻm not complaining. bulls love this stock anytime the DOW/NASDAQ goes up.

Watchlist:
-AAPL: wait for earnings. hereʻs something for you: iPhone in europe November. done deal... buy calls in stages from there.
-VMW: heading past 80, so Y donʻt i buy? i want it to turn into RIMM, iʻll buy calls day b4 earnings next Q

ILLOGICAL:
-PALM: itʻs like beating a dead horse! or any dead animal for that matter. why itʻs up, i dunno. Wallstreet will punish them severely again one day. i will look to going into 2009puts if this green trend continues

wrong way
-CC: the most obvious play...but i went the wrong way because i didnʻt do research. i missed out on banking 200%+, some were hoping they would follow BBYʻs lead (me). nope. at the very least it was a straddle position

ok iʻm done...bye

Safety...surviving a potential disaster

Disappointment
-GS: blasted past expectations. but this market runs scared! iʻm holding my ground with Jan290calls. bid fell to .15 versus .45
-CC: what a stupid play. unproven company... i cud accept GS play, theyʻre solid. but CC had nothing. i completely chose the wrong direction
-RIMM: got in too late and failed to cash the meager gain. i found myself chasing this a bit. a better play would have been to wait for earnings.

Illogical:
-PALM: i dunno whose pumpinʻ this stock. but they are so far behind the competition.

Hopeful
-ORCL: itʻs a good thing i caught this late. missed it yesterday. still a modest upside possible... not looking for a homerun.
-RIMM: some buy backs after-hours. but cut my loses/risk. the upside on earnings cannot be ignored. i see BlackBerries advertised everywhere. itʻs becoming the mainstream smartphone. iPhone owns the highend.

Smart:
-RIMM: puts were there to save me from total collapse. selling some calls to protect the portfolio
-AAPL: stay away from the Lull. wait for earnings date. patience always rewarded.
-SNCR: as news on activations rise then get in.

*sigh* LEARNING (HUMBLING) CONTINUES

deciding to go semi-full bore on the market took guts on my part, but my having known that i missed the bought on Tuesday... didnʻt help. i at least was able to recognize Wednesday wouldʻve been a nice day to get out, but i didnʻt again.

GS: holding Jan290 for now. iʻll decide come monday.
RIMM: sold 1/2 position on oct120calls.
-like what i said earlier. wish i took that "small" gain yesterday. there was a little hiccup going on.
-my meager puts was a smart idea ($ i wasted on CC calls shouldʻv been here)
-Jan calls coming back to affordable rates.
-i will be studying RIMMʻs charts prior to earnings this weekend after "more important things"
PALM: logic prevails come on down
DELL: iʻm reminded of how this was an emotional trade

btw, scottrade stinks... i canʻt stand them...
i couldnt sell my Oct260 GS calls for even a nickel...
iʻm cashing out that account after ORCL reports today.
tradestation will be my trading platform soon.

ORCL would be the only thing left that wouldnʻt humiliate me
-itʻs a reasonable trade... consistently building up, not very volitile

WHAT DID I LEARN?
-any slowdown on the buying (RIMM)... pick up (more) puts (insurance)
-RESEARCH!!! CC taught me to check the marketʻs opinion 1st...and i knew nothing of itʻs management being obviously inferior to BBY. all this would have led me to buying puts!!! which wouldve been a nice little gain.
-check how market responds to earnings (GS ainʻt RIMM), then plot out how far to place calls (oct260 was dumb)

OFF TO DO MORE IMPORTANT THINGS

Real-time

SOLD:
-BIDU...didnʻt see a double digit run

BOUGHT:
-ORCL missed the small dip but getting a fair amount gain. some view as an underperformer. i have to research how VMW if anything might be connected with them negatively.
- oct22.5calls@.30 (wanted .25)

concern:
-might have been good to lock in the $250 gain yesterday on RIMM oct120 and wait for earnings as planned or moved the strike closer

BUY Results(pre-market)

THE GOOD
-AAPL: the fact i stayed away was a safe play
-SNCR: safe play, tho possibly misread post spike down trend yesterday for sellers locking profits, and late day recoveryas a possible breakout
-GS: Jan290call one of the few companies that deliver each earnings. iʻm concerned

THE "I DONʻT KNOW"
-GS: oct260 kinda far out.
-RIMM: the buyers are so crazy (which is what iʻm banking on) even when the stock is red, the calls yell buy me! resulting in green. what wouldʻve been safer was for me to start the call in the money. the premium was what got me to go far out of the money. i bought a couple 10% protection oct70put for my oct120call. iʻm hoping the earnings/guidance blow analysts again. if not... oh, oh... not much time to back track here.

THE BAD:
-BIDU: what was i thinking again? shoulda bought VMW. tho upside remains, it was obvious how overbought it was. i plan to obtain some puts as insurance for the stock, if not sell outright and swallow some humiliation
-VMW: had i gone here instead of BIDU, iʻd be smiling

THE UGLY:
-CC: a little research wouldʻve saved me. lost was expected. what was i thinking. wiser would have been putting this $ in RIMM puts as further insurance.

Spooky time...

So now that the FED thing is settled. is there profit taking ahead. i expect a little of that for sure. Attention back on earnings.

RIMM: oct120calls/oct70puts...not much time to get out.




GS: oct260calls/jan290calls, buncha buyers 2 days. broke above both EMAs
i think the oct260 was a mistake, but a quick move up iʻll sell...



CC: oct

Kinda went as planned...

Well, really wish i stayed up yesterday, so i wouldnʻt have to get up early today. The green signs being up was a done deal.

-RIMM: bought calls Oct120. seems out there,
but as the stock went down, the action increased
protect the blips oct70put
-AAPL: as hard it was to not touch them i stayed out.
good news w/T-mo Germany
-SNCR: talk about a perfect short (which i didnʻt do).
wait them out with AAPL
-VMW: didnʻt get a position at all. will wait for a dip somewhere
-BIDU: bought late (early morning, but late a few days),
still upside related to Olympics
*new position
-GS: Oct260calls reports tomorrow. as expected up. hope guidance good.
-CC: Oct12.5call. BBY suprised, so this is a spec.

DOWN PLEASE
-PALM: theyʻll go down. eventually
-DELL: yawn
new
-LEND: settled legal stuff w/another co. shares were up
so bought Jan10putsʻ09 (spec) housing stinks
-LEN/CFC/DHI... iʻm taking them off the list
housing related, missed a nice short with TOL.
they were up big early, despite dumb comments by CEO.
it went red 2 hours later...

gota go!!!

BUY!!! BUY!!! BUY!!! BYE BYE BYE

Talk about the shorts getting killed. They had nowhere to hide! 1/2% pretty much blew the doors on everything. Itʻs back to the bulls this week (and who knows when itʻll end) Tho i must say itʻs like being between a rock and a hard place for sure.

*I SHOULDʻVE PLACED A SPEC CALL on RIMM (Oct120call x5 risk $250)*

Puts?
PALM: bogus
DELL: there went that plan for Sept. but sticking with Jan22.5puts

tomorrow i will be up at market open. now that iʻve missed this day.
TOO MANY PLACES. so stick with where the bull volume goes!

plan: buy up as far out as possible on OCT & JAN options
- VMW cheap!!! oct120calls@.20? not for long [10 contracts @.40]
- RIMM oct120calls@.50 [20contracts@.50/10@$1...risk $1K]
- AAPL jan250@.35 [10 contracts @.50]
- GS (reports sept 20) Jan300@.10 [10 contracts @.20]

and for a somewhat conservative play: VMW shares
total option risk: $2100 max

scratch that... China is your safe-haven?

it's amazing what happens when you do a little more research.

BIDU/CMED/SINA (china stocks) all on fire yesterday.
if the U.S. market tanks. guess where the $$$ going?
we'll see how it plays in 10 minutes!
and later in the day related to the FED

so, as of today. Add BIDU to the list of Longs.
-play the earnings... upside is outweighs risk.

Short today?

So the FED has something to say today.

What to do? Wait? Another trader mentioned that 16 of the last 20 yrs, the market has fallen from mid-sept into october. He mentioned S&P in getting past 1490 could lead to a run past 1550 before october.

My (amateurish) view is be selective.
short/puts: BIDU & CMED (both had 10% gains ystrdy)
-wish i bot puts...but i worked last nite. so slept

wait on buys for solid companies:
-AAPL: just announced UK telcom. wait this out
-SNCR: somewhat overbought. AAPL deal wonn't kick in yet
-RIMM: earnings Oct 4. so stay tight til then
-VMW: if breaks below 13 EMA. then maybe buy in stages
-their earnings were awesome. already priced in

my "long" shorts/puts
-PALM: killing a dead horse. reminds me of Sun (JAVA)
-DELL: broke below it's 50 EMA.
-(MOT): can it go any lower? NOK/AAPL/RIMM rule

i'm totally waiting for another tank a la May 2006.

"Come on Down!!!" It's the Price is Right!

Financials are taking a beating as expected as well.
-It was one of those Guaranteed $$$ on the shorts/puts

As of now 551am HST, it's red across the board.
One "green" spot involves BIDU. the bulls are fleeing to China.

AAPL: holding up as news of it's mobile partners trickle. stay disciplined!
RIMM: let it fall a bit.
SNCR: redundant? yes. if they hook up w/AAPL's euro deal. it's a huge win
VMW: awesome earnings. and a 5% dip. another red day signals buy!

PALM: i hate them... no former AAPL exec can save them
DELL: i can't wait til tomorrow. hope to exit this trade w/minimal loss
CFC/LEN/DHI: yawn. they will be off my radar soon
MOT: look for any green day(s)...then short them

i'm leaving work soon...gota go

It's 0148... pondering...

the interesting part about today is where people will guess today. I for one will sit this one out and hope for a pull back. Of course, i hope it tanks this week... and this week only... as i have puts in PALM & DELL. i'll especially want to get out of DELL.

my eyes will be on those w/mad swings: MA, AAPL, BIDU, RIMM
i wud straddle to the cheap 5 cent contracts and hope for a boom either way.
paper theory only.

LEH reports this week. so i'll be watching that sector

i've been reading up (more seriously) on MACD/Stoch/RSI tools
i've read other places where these things are useless.
regardless, today will be another instructive day.

Beat Your Own Drum

As my self-education continues. Itʻs funny how the market can make even the most experienced traders look like fools. So, I donʻt feel as a bad.

So, whatʻs next for this week...eyes for me are on:
AAPL: possible deal with euro telcoms on Tuesday.
-so what does history show. buy calls today (Friday)... sell on day of
-buy puts day of or day after.

the timing seems right as the FED opens their mouth next week

RIMM: people still buying it up. must be patient. after FED - hope for pullback
- regardless, iʻm wanting to buy up calls day b4 earnings.
SNCR: nears new high
VMW: donʻt touch w/o a huge dip.

PALM: now we have a few people getting bullish with them. dumb...
- if stock goes up, iʻll buy LEAPS into ʻ09puts.

i wonʻt bother mentioning anyone else.
gota go...

What to do (paper) on Friday?

looking at Stochastics were interesting. but must be used with MACD

RIMM: failed to stay near high. look for cheap puts soon. wait patiently.


AAPL: look for huge dip before jumping back in. Sept 18 news. maybe Euro-iPhone
look for hype surrounding event 2-4 days prior. range 120 to 145ish


SNCR: buying volume picking up. look to PUT soon...


VMW: wait for a huge pull back before being one with the bull

PALM: oversold. donʻt touch if doing puts
DELL: see above...
CFC: spec puts!!!
LEN/DHI: do not touch..worse things ahead...

bull continues... "stoch" accurate?

itʻs 5 a.m. (my time). i figured, itʻs time to look at some technicals and see how it relates to fundamentals. so more charts!!! tho i may start getting rid of time wasters here: LEN/CFC/DHI. but iʻll follow tech, itʻs their time of the year. tho problems are on the horizon.

- CREDIT WOES, HOUSING WOES, OIL PRICES. All of which affect luxury purchases. FED is predicted to cut rates again, which has led to a rally.

so, weʻll see how the economy, company fundamentals & potential, technicals, and stock reputation affect stock price. here we go...

ECONOMY: potential rate cut next week. AP/Yahoo Finance reported: "The Labor Department reported claims for unemployment benefits rose by 4,000 last week to 319,000 -- the sixth increase in seven weeks -- but the number was less than the 325,000 claims analysts expected. Low unemployment, at 4.6 percent, has been one of the economy's strengths."

itʻs good bad news?

RIMM: as i watch another missed opportunity pass me by, having sold my calls too early. a good friend spooked me yesterday. then again a bad jobs report couldʻve sent things down.well, i wait patiently for another. it always seem bullish in general. you can lose your...well anyway, if you try to short them.
-Funda/Potential: still growing. best email software. only competition AAPL in the consumer space.
-REP: the tech bulls buy this stock 1st b4 elsewhere.
-STOCH, claims it still has room to move up.

AAPL: holding up.
-funda/poten: innovative, the ppl w/$ is who they target. smart huh?
-REP: lots a waves... best swing trading stock, manipulated everywhere. buy on upcoming news, then sell on report. buy prior to earnings then sell day of... if it goes green, then uʻll have a nice rally. MACWORLD definitely $$$.
-STOCH says still underbought.

SNCR: definitely kickinʻ butt.
-FUNDA/Potential: no competition. good position, huh...
-REP: follows AAPL... tho % change greater. itʻs waiting to break 40ʻs
-STOCH:it has entered overbought territory.


VMW: has no "stoch" yet. but itʻs been on fire. look for a breakout in the 80s
IDCC: i wonʻt bother til earnings... weʻll see if AAPL deal affects it

PALM: everything fundamentally says they stink, what does the Stoch say?


DELL: solid company really. maybe itʻs another emotional trade for me. maybe a spec. the STOCH says buy!, but i say no. fundamentally, theyʻre having to fighting off ACER, LENOVO, AAPL on the consumer end... now that theyʻre selling at Wallmart & Sams, i think thatʻs tough, WMT is a tough retailer who sqeezes margins. tho i must say Samʻs Club is a good place to buy iPods a few bucks cheaper. and HPQ on the biz side(which is where their $$$ is) Objectively, itʻs a wait and see. but i see how my Sept puts was a really bad trade. Jan puts still in play.


-The Losers
CFC, LEN, DHI... iʻll update this later...

Sold...by the dummy...

RIMM sold calls. i shoulda watched this thing closer b4 selling. alot of people were shorting it, and my best guess is that they're all covering. I couldve made 50% versus my 20% gain today alone. Nonetheless it's a win. I find some easiness in getting out b/cz of iPhone discount. I will get back to RIMM at earnings.

AAPL: up nice. will buy on dip.
SNCR: follows suit again.
VMW: can't stop this train

PALM: we'll see what PR they'll spin with the new board.
DELL: maybe i should get out of this trade (Jan puts)
DHI/LEN/CFC: marginal action.

I hope the FED to do no favors, or the minimal 1/4%. therefore, i'm lookin' for the next BIG dip. then go long on AAPL/SNCR/RIMM/VMW. with emphasis on RIMM earnings.

trouble?

AAPL: it was up solely on news ystrday. so nothing suprising here. patience will be rewarded come earnings...they will kick butt then... or prior to it... then the holiday hype will start. all the way to macworld
RIMM: if the FEDs say o.k. then weʻre off to the races. otherwise, iʻm near a sell, Gio says heʻs buying short-term puts. the charts tend to agree w/him & heʻs smarter than me. my plan as i said b4 was to buy calls day b4 earnings if this long put slides a bit.
SNCR: kickinʻ butt. itʻll also settle down soon.
VMW: crazy...i think i wudv made more than if i had options
IDCC: maybe iʻm wasting my time with this...

PALM: theyʻr actually setting up a nice board. a couple former AAPL guys. shareholders meet tmrw. they still stink if u ask me. oh, and the dudes that sued RIMM on patents are suing PALM now, way to drain more funds.
DELL: they claim they can grow through retail chains. YES!!! i mean, hey go ahead.
HOUSING RELATED: how low can you go?
NOK: buy volume picking up. watching closely for any sign of red
MOT: donʻt touch...yet...wait for earnings again.

iPhone (Apple) factor...

my call tracking:
AAPL: saw that coming
SNCR: see above
IDCC: wait and see
VMW: it may very well be the new GOOG
RIMM: Sept 27 earnings.
keep an eye on SNDK. flash memory will be(is) in high demand

put tracks:
PALM: should be lower if u ask me
DELL: finally logic
CFC/LEN/DHI... considering not even watching but they affect others
...adding MOT...to this list when i find out their earnings schedule

news to look at NOK reports Oct 18.


Theyʻre safe from Apple for now, but trading near their high/overbought. look to short these guys. iPhone news in Europe could cause problems for them.

sometimes things go right...

AAPL: i had a feeling it'll be up today...
SNCR: follows suit. huge winner 10% gain
VMW: shoot me please up 10%
IDCC: as expected, down after huge Friday
[RIMM]: nice. we'll see how the day ends.

PALM: iPhone news finally kickin' in.
DELL: FINALLY! unfortunately i see some buying the dip
CFC: not at all time low. should have bought puts
LEN: new low...it's been fighting to stabilize
DHI: i don't think it gets any better for them

once i take care of some business. i'll get the daily spreadsheet going

i got the night off...

wow my first weekend blog. so wut to look for tmrw? FED!
here we go again... upside??? or downslide? well...




hereʻs a hopinʻ short-term positive news(my RIMM needs help)
however, PALM, DELL... i need some bad news goinʻ their way eventually... i do have til January tho.

AAPL: got smashed(missed the calls on the hype and the puts thereafter) i continue to remind myself to wait.
RIMM: itʻs a bit distressing with the iPhone breathing down their necks. iʻm running away from these guys pronto if thereʻs a nice trend prior to earnings
VMW: itʻs got more competitors all the time. wait 4 earnings
SNCR: cʻmon european deals!!!
IDCC: WallSt still in?

PALM/DELL: PALM is dead, no doubt. Dell continues to fight, i welcome some bad news from the FEDs just please not right away...
CFC/LEN/DHI: near bottoms. how low can you go?

Adding to my tracking sheet... IDCC

this is from NEWS.COM "Apple signs iPhone patent deal with interdigital"

"IDCC (Interdigital) develops technology that gets mobile phones onto cellular networks. The company's products and designs are used for older cellular standards, like the EDGE network used by the iPhone, but is focusing most of its current development on designing technology for the WCDMA (wideband code division multiple access) and HSDPA (high-speed downlink packet access) standards that power faster 3G networks"

when AAPL signs these deals and not try to just use the patent and then work the lawyer thing, then it means itʻs that much more important to Apple to get it done...thus profit from getting it done a.s.a.p.

itʻs more a curiousity. but involves royalties. the more iPhone sells (remember that discount), the more $$$. done deal. itʻs off itʻs high and this deal was cause a huge spike.

so this goes like this
BULLISH: AAPL, RIMM, SNCR, VMW, IDCC
BEARISH: PALM, DELL, CFC, DHI, LEN

iʻll start comparing the "what if" position regarding options when i got more time.

wow... yeah!!...????

AAPL: talk about a screaming buy. i do understand that theyʻre primarily a consumer company with niche in graphics and multimedia. but with the iPhone discount and new iPods for the holiday season. man... but as i said no way iʻm touching this. you could buy a 10cent call contract and hope for a bounce on Monday. but donʻt count on it. in terms of the straight up stock. you could start buying.
-remember Leopard OS is coming out. waiting to hear the European deals as well...

RIMM: whacked again. but my Jan113.5call sure got attention from some buyers. hold on tight for sept 27.
SNCR: follows AAPL. itʻll have a nice quarter come holiday season... and new european deals.
VMW: will be facing some competition with MSFT. but i laugh at MSFT... Vista is a rip-off of Mac OS X all over. Itʻs basically a bunch of nicer graphics...inferior to Apple of course... but useful. my wife still uses a superior OS... Win XP Pro.
- do not underestimate MSFTs ability to throw alot of bogus claims that people spin and believe...

PALM: irritatingly stable. it should be pronounced dead. iPhone $399 (phone + iPod) versus Treo 755/750 $199 or $299
DELL: finally some logic my sept25put still has a chance though i doubt it. sept22.5 still somewhat valid. loss for now
CFC/DHI/LEN: i donʻt know why i still bother mentioning them. but iʻd get out if uʻr shorting. if u got puts hold

Bring it in...

continuing to chart the movements of AAPL. itʻs weird how the latest reaction has brought the stock down. IMHO itʻs such a huge buying opp, but as i said b4, i ainʻt touching it til MacWorld. if i play it, it will be during earnings with a straddle.

RIMM: itʻs following the pattern of a slow decline. but jus when u think itʻs headed lower, they report earnings or recently split then BAM!
VMW: huge move, i donʻt see why it go pounded recently. iʻll wait 4 earnings
SNCR: itʻs getting whacked b/cz of AAPL, but itʻs totally illogical. iPod Touch wonʻt take $ away from iPhone. thereʻs still deals to be made in europe. but iʻd wait for it to touch hi 20ʻs b4 i play them again

PALM: wateverz...
DELL: no real changes... been running flat.
CFC/LEN/DHI: has it reached bottom? no, but i no longer see huge movement til one of these guys report earnings. which wonʻt tell us anything different. CFC let some of itʻs people go. buying time? i donʻt care anymore - i missed the boat.

Apple will sell tons of phones... and other stuff

Appleʻs been hyped up due to this event and lost $8+ including afterhours. see why Apple makes so made traders big $? Itʻs now primed to be bought again...

Having seen Appleʻs new Nano, i must say itʻs kinda ugly. i would have to see it in person. The iPodClassic and Touch are cool, if not expected. The biggest news...iPhone 8GB is now $399!!! can u imagine whatʻs going on in the minds of those who bought their iPhone for $500 - $600? Had Apple originally sold it @ $400 it wouldv sold a million the 1st day. It makes me wonder what their original margins were.

AAPL PLAN: seriously look at this Q earnings (2wks prior) for some hype. then play a straddle. definitely a play late Nov into Dec then again at MacWorld. Iʻve come to learn there are many opportunites in volitile AAPL. today wudv been a nice time to buy. but if i had free $. iʻd wait another day and get in late Friday...

RIMM: iʻm a little worried about my JanCalls here. the iPhone could really cause problems. Hereʻs hopin that RIMM continues a runup. iʻd sell the position prior to report and reposition a wide straddle

SNCR: Theyʻre loving the new iPhone price for sure (so is AT&T)
VMW: back to earth

PALM: ends logically red (no change in Jan10puts)
DELL: see above (gaining back my loses in Jan22.5puts)
CFC/LEN/DHI: what do u think... i wish i held... iʻll never let it down

A day that couldʻve been a disaster where iʻd sell in a panic in the past wouldʻve haunted me had i done so. it still could...

Ouch!!!

Market is kickin' my butt. RIMM is going down on crazy Forbes article.
The one time i step into RIMM and i get shot. argh!!!
It's gonna be a rough week...

SNCR/VMW: yawn...barely red
AAPL: trying to buck the trend

DELL: minimal downtrend as usual
PALM: makes no sense, it's green! why? out of all the stocks this should go down!
LEN/CFC/DHI: wish i kept this position longer...

developing...

missed opportunity...maybe

LONGS:
AAPL (sigh) up huge on speculation of what will be released tomorrow. new music, iPods... more importantly possible iPhone news. i will not touch them til January... or during the holiday run-up if something significant is indeed released.

RIMM didnʻt participate w/the rest of tech, but held itʻs ground. iʻm waiting for the run-up(about 2wks) prior to earnings sept 27.(doing this by the book). the only downfall would be news related to iPhone sales clobbering Crackberries. plan: sell JanCalls if loses >20%. straddle RIMM for huge movement day b4 earnings.

VMW the hype is gone. options are available tho. just wait for earnings.

SNCR no attention here. the bad news is iPhone is unlocked, so less biz for them, if they get in on the european iPhone activations then theyʻr back in biz.

HOPE THEY "DIE"
DELL: iʻm jus gona let the sept puts die. holding JanPuts tho, hope more bad news regarding marketshare being lost to HPQ, Lenovo, Acer, AAPL.

PALM: with the news of itʻs Foleo being cancelled reaffirms my JanPuts

LEN/CFC/DHI: i ainʻt playing these guys...no way... govʻt can step in anytime and throw things off.

just "mapping" out my positions...