Coincidence?

Looking Ahead to next weeks economic news, specifically consumer credit... an interesting date DEC 7 (1941)...

LONE BULLS

The Solars have had the knack for being the salmons of the market.
-FSLR is unstoppable and it seems STP is joining them in China

SHLD: i didnʻt know they reported today... missed an easy Put...

Gio is targeting them at the moment. It may be the case of the last bull standing... He suggests buying the little Solars aka the followers

My stops were designed for a snowball either way... i get neither...

Where Are

Rally... BULL BUYS

Itʻs time to put the breaks on bears...switching gears
-oil is down
-hint of rate cut

GOOG: Dec750call & 800(far yes, accidental trade might as well ride it)
VMW: Dec95call
RIMM: Dec123.3call
AAPL: it triggered (too early)...

bot a former favorite: SNCR (my lone put buy)... despite iPhones selling

I still got Dec puts in IWM, DELL, AKAM, GOOG, Jan20put in FRE.

It looks as if the flyers will fly til weeks end...well at least til tomorrow
I briefly looked at FSLR... a break through 220 resistance and weʻre off to the 300s.
FSLR usually keeps stable when the market tanks and as oil goes up, also it falls AFTER other flyers.

Anyway, weʻll hopefully gap up before the bears make their comeback.

Bought GOOG

Dec750call@4.3.... despite everything else on fire, itʻs been an uneventful stock so far today... but oil tanking (pun intended),
any more rate cut talk by FED will send this thing smoking upward fast... I have enough puts for any downward slide... my Portfolio A is at an all time low... as i held on to my puts too long

Btw, Tim is a genius... heʻs a total bear and called a huge bounce for the day... my guess is heʻll likely cash out before the fed is my guess. heʻs the most diligent chart trader in the blogs iʻve watched. FLY is the definitely the bravest, heʻs the man in a bull market. But Tim seems to see the whole picture. Iʻm watching for him to call a top then i hope to cash my puts in the future... I think his use of Fibs & IWM is an awesome benchmark...20% up and down... cool... Altho my portfolio A stinks at this time, I canʻt help but think of the understanding iʻve gained in the last 2 weeks versus the last 2 years of option trading.

Long-term, this bounce as temporary.. the rally today has had so much underlying bad news
-housing sales "how low can you go..."
-Wells Fargo joins the long line of banks writing down
-Consumer confidence low
-3rd Q profits for banks down 25%

bleh... the rate cut wonʻt do anything to fix the almost mountain-like problems ahead.

in college football news...
i hope Missouri & WVU each win, so we get a scoring contest for the National Championship

Bot VMW

The Horror... This is strictly a technical trade... All this talk of "rate cut". I missed the run-up...but it seems it has some legs for at least another day...

If anything, I need a few longs to balance for the demolishing of my bearish position if it continues... The Fed report could send things either way...

Spooked Market

Despite the bulls in Global market today, thereʻs some sideways action in the U.S. Neither the bulls or bears seem to have the guts to push forward (possibly until the Fedʻs Beige book is out). Even the strongest of Bull, AAPL (GS upgrades them, strong sales indicators, iPod supplies low, etc) hasnʻt pulled AAPL in one direction or the other (yet).

In a schizo kinda way, itʻs killing both my bear and bull positions... the irony

Iʻm going to ESPN.COM & SI.COM to sort my brain...

Fencing

Tho the Arab dudes bailed out Citi, i donʻt see them bailing out the entire market. The Market erased itʻs loses yesterday... aka many bears got buried (pun intended).

Each day the action in the high flyers open strong one way to end the day the other way. So I guess Iʻll jump on the fense and get a piece of both ends. So, with the FED talking later tomorrow, talk of home sales, and crude inventories... itʻs possible for us to get a strong bull open with a pull-back at days end. Iʻll set my stops/sell at both ends for Apple.
Bot AAPL Dec185call & Dec160put.

Such a Newbie

consumer confidence indeed stunk...however, did the market expect that yesterday?

I bot VMW Dec65@2... what was i thinking? It's so oversold!!! Anyway, my put getting blasted at this point. Stock is up from 71 to 77. Fundamentally, i do think ORCL & MSFT will squeeze out profits.

Mind you. The FED speaks tomorrow... buying VMW at the session end might have been more prudent.

The dip-buyers are all over the place today... Portfolio A is again getting slapped all over after being pampered yesterday. Of note, Solars are down a bit as Oil retreats w/OPEC possibly increasing production.

Portfolio B sits awaiting MacWorld or some crazy alignment of bull signs in tech.

Bravery Rewarded

Just when you think the Bulls win the day... The Bears get a seems like perfectly timed news in their favor.

Brave Bears bought puts early in the session (believe me it crossed my mind). GOOG, BIDU, financials, would have got you such a huge swing...
I added to my puts with AKAM. I have no guts to go against leaders.

I was really hoping for the market to fall a bit slower...

It pays to be nimble for sure... in a bit of irony, FLY (the baddest bull of the herd)posted last week a specific stocks in a variety of sectors he would position if he was indeed a bear. It's worth a second look...

The one and ONLY stock i'm bullish on days before earnings is AAPL
-SEEKING ALPHA lists a number of already OBVIOUS reasons
1)Products (Macs, iPods, iPhones)
2)Services (iTunes)
3)Revenue Sharing (iPhone plans, possible AppleTV rental)
all three work in conjuction with the other, and the storefront has continues to build traffic. iPhone & Apple Stores are expanding throughout Europe & Asia.
So, watch for Jan 15, 2008 MacWorld... get those calls in before then.

Weird Feeling

Something ominous is ahead. The Bulls pushed hard to my disgust... being that iʻm 100% puts. Then in time... wow... the leaders got their gains more than halved. Itʻs really tough to be a bull... But an idea...

Pattern for those who want to be a bear with a bullʻs horn
Buy day before...call side...then @ 1000am EST sell call/buy put...

Iʻm hanging on... looking for the indexes to break lower...
Iʻm especially looking at china...FXI/FXP

LEADERS LEAD...

Besides FSLR for some time now, STP puts are getting pummeled. I hesistate to sell here tho with potential bad news ahead. Altho Oil plays into Solars.

IWM is near it's support (or resistance)@76. If it breaks through, the bulls may spread past the leaders.

The leaders are continue the momentum from friday...most opened >2%

i'm considering adding to puts by way of financials: BSC especially... i'll wait for the end of the trading day before that happens.

Kirk's logic is barring further bad news, setting stops at Wednesdays lows will mark the bottom for this month on.

Having not balanced my portfolio A. My hesitation has again cost me (again).

Confusion Everywhere...

A guy on MarketWatch had a couple of articles posted on the same day... One cited insider trading where there was significantly less selling (i.e. holding). Then another article mentioned the Dow Theory where a historical technical bull market seems to be ahead of us.

The market signs point to a definite TREND down, with many bounces obviously ahead. Lower highs, Lower lows.

Oil, Credit, Housing slowdown (i.e. Foreclosures, jobless related claims, etc) seemingly are working together to bring this market into recession mode. The bears seem to have taken over China...

That being the case i'm not playing with fools gold. I feel i've already missed the bounce not having bought on Wednesday (i didn't wake up b4 the market closed) A few put positions are in place.

Selective leaders are there for the bounce: FSLR (esp w/oil going up), AAPL (<150 was the buy), RIMM (<100), PBR (brasilian oil co. that found more oil).

Gio (@intuitivetraders) has graphs i especially missed:
-DRYS (even i mentioned it)
-TNH

time to grab a bite...

Deals & Steals

Bought some stuff for work and other important things on Black Friday. some 35%, one thing i really needed was 80% off wow!

Unfortunately, coming home i see my puts are in the dumps. Iʻm late on AAPL since last wednesday, iʻll wait for a dip. Otherwise, i got in on IWM puts too early. I should have waited toward the end of the session to get it cheaper.

STP is up while, weirdly enough FSLR is taking a break... iʻm unsure if itʻs a buy here. but itʻs definitely facing resistance. Iʻll remember the day before Thanksgiving as another day to be a bull if but for one day. Iʻm waiting this out for now, knowing i might have missed part of this rally, but iʻve realized over-and over-and over....again That more opportunities await.

I lost some in the market today(digitally that is), while getting the deals and a steal with real money.

Warriors & Boise State... huge game... Tomorrow itʻs Missou & Kansas...

Write-Off Buying Spree

Itʻs this time of the year when i buy a bunch of stuff related to work that iʻll have to write-off on taxes... So, the market is open to me for an hour max... then iʻm off to spend $... iʻm avoiding Best Buy, Circuit City, and CompUSA... poor souls...

btw, College Football fans... itʻs HAWAII versus BOISE STATE. Maybe they donʻt seem like big teams to you. But it seems to me like they can outscore most teams that they play.

Oh yea, i bot some IWM Dec72put. If it gets to that point, yes (i hope) we are in a bear market...
Next week has Consumer confidence info and housing... too much risk for me to be bullish...

I am looking only to AAPL as a pure bull. but that can wait til Dec 15 when the FED talks.

"Da Bearsz"

This market is schizo... i'm one who has placed limited risk on the table. i'm only in puts at this point. Tim's site has a plethora of charts to back his argument. The bull will have his day... it may even happen at days end for the "historical" annual rally.

Asia tanked...so

Sticking with the plan...
-STP Dec55put: will hold for now...well unless it swings.
-FRE Jan20put: will keep moving sell parameters daily. it's freefalling
-FSLR Jan125put: got no choice but to let it ride at this point

Eyeing puts in IWM, FXI, on any strength
Checking out calls USO, FXY

Da Bearsz...

Lastly, VMW shorts & put buyers will be rewarded greatly...

Back In FRE... Also High Flyerʻs 50 EMA

There isnʻt much logic in going long... is the rationale behind buying FRE put again. This time itʻs Jan20put. Maybe i should have tried FNM (essentially the same).

STP is starting to crumble (finally). Iʻm looking for it to get to itʻs last support @ 55.


Although the hi-flyers: AAPL, BIDU, GOOG, RIMM, VMW... were all up today, much a result of HPQʻs quarter. I donʻt see much daylight ironically because of HPQ... itʻs bumping against itʻs 50 EMA. So much for itʻs strong quarter...



In fact they are all sticking around their respective 50d EMA
AAPL: technically speaking you can see a breakout waiting to occur. fundamentally solid to boot. expansion to Europe on schedule... even with revenue sharing being stomped on in France and possibly Germany... an unlocked iPhone is still a sale... Asia awaits... and a 3G-like speed version due by next holiday season. And last but not least, Macs are gaining mucho market share w/huge potential (3% worldwide/6-7% U.S.) Imagaine if they actually advertised the ability to run all software...

BIDU: worrisome chart. 2 tier supports @300 & 280... The hype around the Olympics will likely prevent that collapse from happening, but who knows... the China bubble could happen sooner

GOOG: they seem the strongest of the bunch technically. it would have to get break 675 before i go long... advertising will now slow. itʻll pick up for the holidays...

RIMM: itʻs consumer sales are key to itʻs expanding. corporations cutting back is a concern

VMW: the most bearish & weakest of the group. technically trending down (lower hiʻs & lower lows) and fundamentally will be battling ORCL, MSFT, & open source VMs. However, bravery will be rewarded here if it safely closes past 100. Huge reward either way.

SOLD!!!

FRE Jan35put@2.7 was a solid play... sold in 10 minutes. missed the peak by 5 min. The first solid bear play that was both planned AND executed beyond expectations. nearly 300% gain.

The only thing would have been better were December puts instead...

It's nice to finally pull off a solid trade while i happen to be at work...
...back to work...

Stay Away From Flyers

My obliterated Dec125put in FSLR is left to die.
On the other hand STP Dec55put remains in play. It could go either way. Pulled up by FSLR or brought down by fellow china energy plays.

FRE is my lone earnings play of the day. No relief is in sight for the Loaners. They got what they deserved. I'm unsure of how long to hold this thing being one in a crowd of financial losers.

HPQ beats Street

So, the question is will Tech follow?
After-hours seem positive, but i don't buy it...

Alot of factors tomorrow
-World Markets (i.e. Asia slumping at time of post)
-FRE reports (aka housing/credit)
-the FED talks (hint of cuts?)

It's a short trading week. Past history really doesn't guarantee that the same pattern will continue.

Whoops!!!

on Nov 14, I was looking into put buying in casinos in Timʻs site, and forgot about it. and whada ya know... LVS down 8+ looking at the chart itʻs gonna either rally(doubtful) or go down hard. bravery here can either reward you or have you eating sandwiches for months.

One Buy Thatʻs All

It was simple today. Bot FRE Jan35put@2.7... I didnʻt have any other positions that interest me. The FED talks tomorrow, so itʻs time to hope for vague statements that could be interpreted as negative. A rate cut is inevitable, but thatʻs not going to save FRE. So, that being said, hopefully tomorrows bad news is not already priced into the stock.

Two Anomalies:
GS. The bulls threw their hopes at it...tho it did get shot down. i red FLYʻs site saying, GS canʻt stay up, wudv been a nice put position

RIMM was an interesting rally point. Tech leaders went down, except RIMM. Couldnʻt find any news except an email service partnering with them. but i am not gonna try and call a top in this flyer. any positive FED talk will send it rocketing.

Keeping things simple...

FRE Reports Tomorrow

The financial sector may continue to get pounded tomorrow. Are we nearer to a Bear market than we thought? I personally donʻt care. I just want some direction either way.

Iʻm looking at some dirt cheap Canadian Energy Trust funds. Namely AAV. Dividend is $0.15/share and trades at $10.77 as of this posting. good deal...

Market Tanks...after I sell puts

Well, i kept a couple on board, otherwise i took some off the table, when they could have banked me some $. Iʻm essentially waiting for the end of the trading day to get in somewhere... possibly an index option instead...

The 1st 30 Minutes...

Itʻs always been a stomach wrenching part of the trading day. The exception is when the pre-market is Strong in your direction. Today, i sold out my puts in AAPL, RIMM, GOOG. The last 2 having a 20% & 13% gain respectively. Small loss in AAPL. But i banked nothing...

SOLARS continues to buck any down trend. FSLR is a monster, tho i wonʻt chase. STP traded up early on the day, but looks to be a victim of losing interest and profit taking. My guess is theyʻre moving to numero uno FSLR. So, being that my FSLR is basically worthless i held it and STP, well i figured itʻll taper down tho my Dec55put is far from banking...

Financials look weak as i described in an earlier post. But iʻm too spooked to get in there unless the direction is absolutely defined EVERYWHERE.

Oil moved lower today, but iʻm still irritated that it hasnʻt translated at the pump. 30 cents higher in the last 10 days? cʻmon.

SQUEEZED...

I did the biggest no-no for not having set my stops... not waking up @market open... terrible.

3 rules that i broke (have continued to break)
1) Setting sell stops... + & -
2) Pay attention to index
3) Just be humble and take the 20% already...

I AM TOTALLY LACKING DISCIPLINE...

iʻve missed officially on both ends and lost. we may be headed for a nice upside bounce this week. Iʻm unsure how long it will last. The so-called holiday rally is upon us starting next week. And the bulls have started "talking" down the bears. Bears must remain patient.

My STP idea was blasted yesterday...and FSLR totally beat me up both ways. Iʻm not chasing these guys. Itʻs too late...

My bear picks of tech were all green at the open...and coming home i found them red...if not close to it.

Iʻm switching gears again... the leaders roared back today...
RIMM, GOOG, AAPL

In my incredibly ridiculous errors. Iʻve found what i hope is a solution to my dilemma in setting definite stops, not based on the price of the option itself (where iʻll look @%age change), but on stock price itself. In study, i offer the following...

RIMM, i wouldʻve sold my put once it crossed below 99... and wait to change strikes.


my mind has been so stuck on a psychological gain...100%, 50%, 25%...that at times i forget about how the price & volume is involved in setting my stops. In the case of RIMM i failed to place a sell @1030 (75% gain). itʻs more likely that i wouldʻve sold @10 am. my portfolio A has in fact net-changed 250% in gain/loss.

anyway, looks like iʻm going to have to wake up early consistently. DISCIPLINE is whatʻs been lacking. Straddle plays may be the best for the time being. instead of the homerun... a base hit should be the goal... while the HR should be the suprise reward for sticking to the plan.

btw, Gio reminded me to watch out for the leaders in his examining my "PUT"s in AAPL, FSLR, RIMM, GOOG. He was right on. I actually paid the least attention today of the last 2 weeks and paid for it.

Bought...STP

STP had great numbers today. So "naturally", I bought Dec55puts@2

My previous posts have cited this stock well over itʻs 50d EMA@47...
There you have it... a Bear play written all over it...

Back to sleep... my expectations are that i lose on this trade (to temper any anxiety on it)

Unsettled...Unsettling

Solars got a lift today on STP. Or was it just a bounce from yesterdays sell-off. who knows at this point. Itʻs still early in the day.

Tho negative sentiment continues. This morning Consumer spending worries into the holiday season has been forcing Retail to cut forecasts for the year end. The Phily FED guy says something today @12pmEST, so watch for some action thereafter, it looks to be that direction for the day to be more evident . options expiration tomorrow just adds more fuel to end this volatile week.

It looks as if bulls tried to scare off the bears at the end of yesterdays session... In any case a bounce today is expected.
Sub-prime write-down at Barclays actually less than expected. So, a firm bounce may carry til the end of the day...

It looks as if iʻm not going to be doing any trading today. Iʻm looking at the missed boat in CLX. Otherwise, my positions are bearish in my portfolio A (portfolio B stays in cash). Any rally here feels unsettling...

UAL & DELTA

Wow, now thatʻs an airline... What would they name it?
United Delta... hmm... Delta United... ahh... Dunited... no... Uelta?... cʻmon... United AirDelta Lines... man!... iʻm delirious... Please, somebody shoot me...

No really tho, my wife and I have a bunch of United Miles. Weʻre just waiting to see when we can use them.

There is consolidation thatʻs going to happen in airlines. So, how that affects their stock(s). Iʻm unsure. But itʻs been ongoing for a few years now.

MAD MONEY

MY PLAN WAS PERFECT!!!! MY EXECUTION ON THE OTHER HAND STUNK UP THE PLACE... I MAY SOON CHANGE MY NAME TO "STINKTRADER"...

I am really ticked off having woken up, thinking that my trade triggers were set...and saw i was still holding them. WHAT? So, my stop @20% gain turned out to be 13%+ loses. I was up as much as 30% today. Whatʻs up with that!
On a swing day like this i shouldʻve stayed up and manually placed them orders... i missed the tops...in buying puts

Itʻs Bear time... I sold ALL my calls(that didnʻt trigger correctly... no middle-fencing here...here we go...
GOOG: Dec500put (far yes, but the 2 tier supports (or for bears resistance) are found@614 & 580 is what i see...bottom being 521 (200d EMA), so thatʻs where i pulled out that 500...i donʻt need it to even come close to touching it.

AAPL: Dec150put. Could argue support from 145 to 150... I do think Apple will be fresh come January 15thʻs MacWorld...so i welcome the stock falling...

RIMM: Dec106.6put... the 2 supports iʻm eyeing 100 & 86...

FSLR: Dec125put... this stock is still far above itʻs 50EMA@135. it only makes sense...


I will close this post by saying after placing all those put orders in 2 minutes...each started posting 5%-20% gains.

Portfolio A (Portfolio B a.k.a stash remains unopened) as a result is now as silly and itʻs bottom since FEBʻ07... Iʻm stand by the roadside with a sign that says, "BRAINLESS, PLEASE GIVE ME COINS." (I donʻt need food...or a job...just coins to give to the MAN...)

Tomorrow will spell tell us whatʻs going to happen the next 2 weeks. As they say @ the Price Is Right, "COME ON DOWN!"

Heading Higher...

Today's action was helped by Bear Sterns statements as well as positive talk on inflation. All this of course can change, but looking at the pre-market @ the time of these "bullish" statements...EVERYTHING TOOK OFF!!!

So, being i'm still at work...i'm stuck (unrelated to my blog name) or helpless if the FED says something dumb again.

Earnings today of significance: AMAT, HSBC holdings, IFX, Macy's, SINA, so a mix of Tech, bank, retail AND Chinese names...

In fact, Chinese stocks are Cha-ching today...even before the positive statements from BSC

I'm checking out what the Bears are saying today... If anything, the semi-bear market has alerted me to technical trading more than ever before. And i am always on the lookout to get out or even flip the orientation of my positions.

Kinda the plan of the day... Let the rally run... buy put protection as positions continue positive...if not by days end...

Let The Market Decide

Iʻm the dude that makes the brokerages alot of $$$. Anyway, this will be my last post til the market opens tomorrow. The green signs were posted, but will soon be removed. The talk from everyone is...Catastrophy.

My favorite Tech: aapl, had a bunch of news coming out today... :
-China mobile deal
-First day iPhone UK sales top 8000 (notice they didnʻt mention weekend tho)
-Greater market share in Japan spiking up to 53%
-Rumor of Flash-based SubNotebook come MacWorld
.....The result? a heft 16% gain.... likely 10% was already part of the rally... not sure if it was timed that way for stock purposes or just plain coincidence

Just something to think about. All the statements from GS..."no problem, donʻt worry" well beyond this week. You bet iʻm worried (if iʻm a bull).

My technicals stand regarding those above their 50d EMA. See previous post. The previous support for the bulls the past few months now serves as RESISTANCE!, so buyers beware. Tho there is for sure a small bull window upon us. Weʻll see how the rest of the world does...if they follow then itʻs a short-rally... if not... get your lists of "put" and shorts together.

Time to go to my real job... *sigh* 16.5 hours

A Way to Lose Money

It was tough foreseeing STP/FSLR puts pre-market... and yet i had nothing set aside for a bounce today. Well, I jumped back in and played both sides of the hedge towards the end of the day (sans RIMM), thinking that my picks would flatten out, instead they continued upward (thus another missed opportunity).
AAPL: Dec180call@7...Dec125put@1.1
RIMM: Jan150call@3.3 (cheap)... Dec76.6put@1.7
GOOG: Dec750call@7.1...Dec500put@1.85
FSLR: Dec250call@5.9 (rip off)... Dec125put@1.35 this stock couldnʻt stay near its highs like the other leaders, but aftermarket is kickin butt again

The puts may seem far out, but theyʻre there to prevent the worse case scenerio...
Otherwise 40% of my total portfolio remains cash...no touchy touchy til January... rhymes huh?
One of my portfolios has officially broken even *Ahem* (lost all itʻs profits YTD) - Thatʻs 50%.

Regarding a former favorites:
-VMW... i donʻt like the competition thatʻs coming. MSFT and now ORCL... besides a lot of open-source Virtual Machines already existing and gaining. No doubt that VMW is the leader, but itʻs window in keeping that status may close sooner.
-GS... i wished i got a position... since financials SEEMED to have bottomed.

PLAN: if this is a small rally take any green possible with tight stops. hope this momentum lasts through tomorrows open, then cash out. and eye out puts again... the Bulls & Bears will be pounding each other the next week or so. such a headache. In visiting Timʻs site & Flyʻs you have 2 traders in the trenches. Both with logical arguments... *sigh*

Well, i woke up to get these positions ahead of my 16 1/2 hour night shift... slept about 2hours... iʻm afraid if i went back to sleep i wouldnʻt get up. HANS products are calling

BULLS RETURN?

the moment i pick up puts (FSLR, STP), the market reverses. How's that for losing to the House. I must say tho, i totally saw the oil prices reversing... it's just that i didn't get any position on the call end... too spooked considering the aftermarket yesterday bleeding deeper.

WMT saved the day...Besides oil lowering... There's also merger news among the Domestic air carriers.

Everything is up... especially those that touched 50d EMA
AAPL, RIMM, VMW, BIDU... all trading pre-market in green...
Those familiar with the FLY will call him a genius today...

I'm more confused than ever. i'm neither bullish or bearish, just a pawn that's been used and abused...again...

Eco news this week a.k.a. find a dip..
11/13: Pending Home Sales
11/14: (830a)Retail sales & PPI; (1030)Crude Inventories
11/15: (830a)CPI & Jobless claims

One must work quickly in this market. And i'm stuck at work... the only place where i haven't lost money (yet).

After-Hours...Where to make $

There's a certain sense of fairness (i wouldn't use justice) in a bear market. I've been on the other side where my past posts reveal how in a bull market i'd have a solid pick and an analyst or bank would shoot that stock down because THEY think it's overvalued (just to manipulate the stock for THEIR entry point).

Now in a soon to be confirmed Bear market (i'm unsure if this is a short-term bottom), it's fair now to bank some change for having sufferd manipulations that hurt the individual investor.

This is the first time i've participated in a bear market. i'm not at all that confident in throwing a boatload of $ into it. just managing risk again.

A fellow trader (who's alot better than i am, if not more disciplined), reminded me to view this bear action as a flipped bull, which i know... but trading that way is completely new for me. Now, i have to think, this stock is NOT getting cheaper, but more valuable.

also looking good for the bears, still above their 50 EMA:
-FSLR, STP, SOHU, GOOG
-questionable in this group would be MA still 20+ points but fighting back and Visa's IPO may actually drive it up.

touching their 50EMA:
-AAPL, RIMM, BIDU, FWLT
if they don't rally tomorrow, it's going down... interestingly enough, i'm looking at LEAPS that are hopefully gonna be dirt cheap and pay months from now

The finance sector seems to have reached bottom
GS would be the only one i'd go long...which ain't happening anytime soon

The value stocks and certain currency ETFs are making $
-FXY, CLX, PG... obviously the ultraput ETFs are banking $ as well

In the end, like any trader... you would want a clear direction. things seem to be pointing lower, but lower Oil prices may give relief not to mention, Big Ben saving the day for the bulls.

Jones Soda... Turkey & Gravy flavor?

i like soda. but not this much. if the market continues tanking, people may be stuck drinking this instead of an actual meal

Bear-ied

The Bears continue to stand... As expected, 15 min into the trading day stocks rally... only to be shot down. I caught the tail end. And got a few puts in...for once not for protection, but for profit.

GOOG: Nov610puts@2.5 and it triggerred wayyyy too early @3.5 and proceeded to gett to 7.5, it was a profit but too low of an exit. it may rally tomorrw. Anyway, 610 is about itʻs 50dayEMA. bummer missed 300+profit right there.
STP: Dec45puts@1.6
FSLR: Dec135puts@4.1

i kept my positions small, in case Big Ben comes to the rescue. iʻm risk managing @ this point after my debacle on going bullish on solar, the day before they tanked. iʻd be sitting 100% profit on my total portfolio had i bot puts instead.

AAPL, RIMM, BIDU all got to their 50d-EMA. So, weʻll see if thereʻs a rally coming by weeks end.

Learning The Bear

Watched stocks attempt a rally @3:15. Thought of "putting". but chickened out...
It was especially evident in BIDU, which i will use as a teach sheet. The other Techies zigzagged before breaking...


It still has room before getting to the floor. It has to get to 306ish on a 50 day...


Itʻs wierd to look at this as an opportunity that may have passed me by... On the other hand, more bad news awaits...
Iʻm looking at LEAPS... Iʻm still hoping for the market to head down...but not too quickly...

SOLD EVERYTHING...AGAIN...Sleepy time

I lost more in dumping into in 1 day of Solars than i did in a few days of Tech. Shows you how much I know... which is why i have this blog to begin with...

If anything i was able to cut my loses with a small bump up...

I am not a bear at all...tho i want to be... itʻs hard to adjust to such thinking...
i will be reading up on it for sure...to prepare for the next bull run top

I can look forward to another tax return...since i didnʻt make beans...
In any case iʻm going back to sleep now that my portfolio has no risk...
At this point, i would love for the market to dive...albeit slowly...

I will await patiently...MacWorld...AND...any false positives...

I KNOW I SAID I WOULDNʻT POST...

BUT IʻVE BEEN BEAR TRAPPED.

Serves me right. I went against my intuition just to try and make a quick comeback... no such thing...

JASO: opened DOWN $10+
STP: which knifed me yesterday opened DOWN $4+ (mercy from yesterday)

If i just played the bear for one day...it shouldʻve obviously been today.

The Heavies in old Tech remain stable today...w/minimum loses (MSFT, INTC, CSCO)
-slow flyers, but also slow losers...safer...

basically, i have no choice but to wait this day out in no-mans land... i wish i didnʻt wake up early to this gut punching.

OK...frustration aside...
JASO had an awesome Q. As a buddy mentioned yesterday, he thinks they were hyped with sympathy run-up on FSLR.
The ONLY good news is that itʻs oversold short-term crossing the 13dayMA.

The bad news among many of the solars today is that itʻs way above itʻs 200MA...


STP doesnʻt bode well either...it was continues to cut...leaving me little room $-wise to decide to cut and run or hold

LESSON:
Never try to play prior to earnings if the stocks been up already... Learned that from this Stock Trends Crook that tried to have me turn over my $$$ to him. But he was right on..."Get out of a situation that you canʻt control" was what he said on his DVD. Learning from a slap in the head helps to retain such thinking

Suggestions? Advice? Everyone has them

Cramer says (but Stucktrader thinks)
MO: tobacco company... (i ainʻt supporting those guys)
FCX: copper and gold mining (maybe)
FWLT: construction/engineering for oil, gas, refining, etc (good and a split in January)
RIG: provides offshore contracted drilling, rigs & work crew (o.k.,tho kinda flying to fast) almost no U.S. exposure
MHS: pharmacy benefits management in U.S. & Puerto Rico (nah)

Tim basically says be a bear... (he must be raking it in)

Gio says Solar...namely FSLR... (props to him)

Stucktrader says i donʻt know yet... (he, being I, broke his own rules) had i kept my put protection on my high flyers, i couldʻve softened the blow, maybe even profited. Alas, right now I am deep in Solar...and may cut out quickly if JASO doesnʻt work out...because STP has been a faster loser than my Tech holdings. There could be a play, which i missed in using USO call options as gas prices increase. Therefore, my main not-exactly-a-hedge on oil

I donʻt think iʻll get that 50% gain from here. Itʻs incredibly challenging... especially since I have better things in life to do than stare at my screen. Iʻll just try to manage risk from here...

BTW, there are long lines for the iPhone in Germany. Apple needs to extend itʻs mobile-wares A.S.A.P.

No More Posts during the Trading Day...

Iʻm done posting during the day... cost me $$$

Shoulda Went to $$$

Shoulda went to cash... I threw $$$ away at STP in minutes...

I ainʻt touching my account any longer today... My portfolio was fine before my lone AAPL call went down...

Sit on the side and ask questions later...*hands up in the air*

YIKES!!! AAPL dies with the rest!!!

AAPL!!! in searching all these sites...i failed to pay attention and BAM 183 TO 177!!!

FORGET TECH...IʻM IN SOLAR!!!
-Added more STP calls...Dec75@6 to existing Jan75

Huh? STP now sinking?

Someone put me out of my misery!!!

FED SPEAK and Stuff

Big Ben said things look bleak next Q. Tho he opened hinted a rate cut could come if need be. Time to plan for a recession.

Just a thought: PALM
Their Centro Smartphone (suckphone), may very well sell this year. $99 is cheap to have that title. Tho secretly, those buying or receiving them are craving a BlackBerry Curve/Pearl or an iPhone... but they donʻt have the mulah...

Hope this market continues south...jus so i get cheap LEAPS for AAPL...

BIDU loses support @370...
-in hindsight..it was struggling to stay above 400, wudv been a nice short/put
GOOG hanging in @700...
RIMM lost supports@130 &128...

Oh...Oh...Iʻm starting to like being a bear...
If it wasnʻt for AAPL...iʻd be a bear...

Booked profits...Managed Losses

GOOG: sell triggered Dec750@27.8...97% profit (shoulda took that 135%)
RIMM: sold Jan 150@9... tried to wait for a higher bid... 45% gain tho (had it @ 80%...)
AAPL: sold Dec190@7.7 (maybe shouldnʻt have?). 20% loss...

so, in short i went away from Tech and bot:
STP: why did i sell them last friday!!!??? Jan75@8.3
JASO: Dec70@9.3(high risk/reward)

held:
AAPL: Dec185calls (my original play) iPhone news awaits in Europe

iʻm currently looking to for AAPL calls way into the future!!! Read one analyst who thinks itʻs going to 600 in 18 months!!! Short-term the market absolutely stinks. and i wanted to get back into Solars. I have $$$ on the side, waiting for the bulls to come back... if not Jan 15 MacWorld suits me fine...

Final Lesson for the Day...

If the FED is gonna speak... sell prior... if there are rumors of rate cut... sure enjoy. But once they get to the mic. Sell...

Panic is in the air because a FED guy said "We will not be raising rates..."
So, Wall Street says..."That means the market is bad..."
But then, Wall St previously had worries, "We NEED a rate cut."

Impatient fools...
Itʻs no wonder that during this bull rally, thereʻs always been a bear as well.

Lesson again:
Sell before FED guy talks

Get OUT!!!

ARG! a.k.a. AAPL/RIMM/GOOG troika couldnʻt stand

I actually thought i was having a little fun buying a smidge of a call on CSCO. But man, I didnʻt think the thing would be whacked a buck!!! they did everything... and the Market sank. Would you please tell these FED guys to shut up already!!!

Iʻm now having to scramble and taking a look at my main portfolio
GOOG: Dec750... there went the 125% gain
RIMM: Jan150... there went the 70% gain
AAPL: Dec185/190... well...not much but i was waiting for something...if anything, it has strength in news regarding the iPhone this Friday in Europe...

i congratulated a buddy of mine on his FSLR today... up 167 to 200+ in 10 minutes after the close... crazy gain... too bad it wasnʻt a tech company...

I guess iʻm gonna have to work more hours...this week after all.

Thanks Alot GM...

$39B loss? Common... Where was all the accounting during the last 3 quarters? Oil keeps going higher...

My eyes are also on the Solars (especially in hedging Oil). That energy group is doing what Ethenol did last year... i may buy future dips against oil.

The market looks forward to getting past today. Weaker dollar from talk of China banking on other currency. FED guys talk @0845 & 9; We have Oil/Petrol reports (1030); Consumer Credit (3). Talk of the S&P support@ 1490 is in focus. CSCO hopefully will blow by expectations and save the week.

I am not touching my positions today...unless there's a catastrophy...
- I'm looking for BIDU to stay down... and hopefully AAPL stays neutral, so i can get in on BIDU. it's a longshot.

WOKE UP AND...HEY, NOT BAD!

With the exception of my not having $ to get into BIDU. It actually dipped below 400! If that isnʻt a buy signal i donʻt know what isnʻt.

Anyway, i slept in from night shift and woke up to green signs...
GOOG: Up 16... nears my Dec750call
AAPL: Up 5.6.. blasts through my Dec185&190calls
RIMM: Up 3..... Jan150calls may strike in December.

Financials have a minor recovery. But Solars are on fire! (pun intended)
namely FSLR up 20! up 13% on a billion dollar deal... and they report tomorrow. their CEO actually cares about their stockholders
the rest follow up: JASO, CSUN, STP (should i have kept this one?)...

Not much to complain here...
just not enough $ to go around...
So slimmed my picks to what i know...

Having learned from VMW (which may near a buy),
I will not touch my 3 Muskateers...(GOOG/AAPL/RIMM)
I will let them trend up and wait out the blips.
If i can actually learn from my previous mistakes,
then this last run was worth it.

Mobile Might: GOOG? & AAPL?

GOOG: The Gphone as expected was more like a platform. But it seems as though it will take some time for it to be the force that GOOG is on the internet

AAPL: down on GOOG news of all things, you never know, AAPL may have it run on top of iPhone. either way, it should pick up in the coming days as sales of iPhone reach Europe. Not to mention ANY sales news. I continue to remind others of January 15 MacWorld as their annual stock pop.

RIMM: weirdly enough wasn't affected by the news as AAPL was...go figure, maybe it was due to their dominance in businesses...

It's soon time for the annual bull run... don't blink..
All this stuff about the credit woe has been sucking everything down...

Next Week...Whatʻs Big

More earnings...Eco news, namely "Consumer" Credit on Nov 7.


Whatʻs incredibly interesting is....GOOG
the Google event on monday regarding its mobile open software platform. It could be a game-changer (again). The whoʻs who of the mobile industry are backing them. My guess is that MSFT is not at all happy - they bought FaceBook, but who cares. MSFT has no vision what so ever, they just buy (or steal, or scare others from using) other peopleʻs ideas.

Whatever is announced...potentially could send GOOG up as fast as BIDU.

Itʻs just dawned on me how my option portfolio are now Big in mobile
-AAPL: iPhone, mobile media computer that people think is just a phone
-RIMM: BlackBerrys, enterprise communicator extending to non-iPhone users
-GOOG: "?????"

itʻs amazing really how these guys didnʻt have the clout as they do just 2 years ago. So where has mobile power gone?
- yesteryear: MOT RAZR...today iPhone... PALM TREO...today Blackberry Curve/Pearl

i have no idea about who really is affected by GOOGʻs announcements (outside of MSFT). It could be the biggest day in mobiles (especially in the U.S.)

Cut Out Losers

Well my plan to hold these guys as long as i could didnʻt quite work...

VMW: tanked as much as i feared. iʻm unsure of why i bot them in the first place, just to diversify. it will go up long-term, but a hiccup was in the making. i will buy these guys when the technicals look better.

BIDU: my lone option i bot some time ago finally rang green. i took my 25% being a november contract. maybe i should have cleared the deck and bot a boat load. but alas itʻs an expensive play. SOHU & SINA are cheaper, but BIDU rules.

STP: i sold...to add to AAPL. i donʻt need a flyer, just consistency.

AAPL: i strengthened here buying Dec185calls on a flat day. itʻs only a matter of time when news will send this stock higher (or lower).

RIMM: itʻs my darkhorse. it really doesnʻt have much news. just a bunch of bull-buyers. i may sell these guys and profits from AAPL to get a piece of BIDU calls.

So the balance sheet?
-AAPL
-GOOG
-RIMM
-BIDU (stock)
-STP (stock)

it may be out of my reach. but i want to get my portfolio up 50% from here...lofty goals yes...

DOW DOWN 360

Well, itʻs amazing my portfolio held its ground. Though tomorrow may be another story.
The FED pumps $41B into the market. not sure what itʻll do for the market

VMW: i worry about views that itʻs overvalued. i think iʻll wait for another pop then sell
AAPL: solid. no green...but just plain solid. The released MacBooks.
GOOG: made green...at one time 25%...closing 16%... honestly itʻs still got mojo
BIDU: still heading north. no doubt
RIMM: lost ground, but solid aftermarket buying.

new: STP: i purposely shot a low bid and got it. this will be my China/Energy hedge

missed a few trades today. Gas/Oil companies weirdly enough never do well short-term when oil goes up. Alternative energies are the way to hedge the downturn.

Iʻm setting triggers to see if there will be an initial pop (however unlikely it may seem).