Saturday, July 26, 2008

Pondering... Confusion continues...

My friends and I had dinner with this kid from Tahiti last night. Who speaks french... a proper Tahitian. And today we are supposed to see another ʻkidʻ who is going back to NY monday. Why do i mention this? because i am tired of trying to figure out a direction... and need the time away... the market in just plain confused where to go. Long term down, but for now its all *??????*

I have nailed some picks but have failed to go full bore on them. I could have easily increased my portfolio x5 on those picks within the last 3 weeks. I worry about my current short positions that i am finally trying to be aggressive, however, no sell off occurred in my HOT/MAR, a temporary bottom here? Early yesterday, MAR tried to break strong to green but found a firm spot over the previous close. HOT closed just below the previous close... The buyers kept coming back...so trouble is possible. My hope is that it only allows more shorts to come in. The worse case scenerio is a huge squeeze on monday with no eco news on Monday. Tuesday involves consumer confidence, so a definite bear day...

I have a long short(oxymoron) on oil, DUG option calls. However, ... Energy, especially oil related might have found a temporary bottom here... but if another crash happens i figured i would pick up this hedge... The thing is i want oil/energy up to knock HOT/MAR back down to where they belong. The long trend in oil has been established until the new Prez is picked.

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