HK... wow it gets blasted again... FED/GOVT/PREZ

Well i for one didnt think HK would get dumped on. This thing is dirt cheap today, but i am alas focussing on GOOG. It would have made a nice short for me had i not had jury duty yesterday. I couldnt help thinking about the market yesterday, knowing i was missing some of the biggest swings in history. This would have funded my GOOG in a large way... oh well.

I cant help but think that this bull thing that the FED & Banks are selling are worthless. We will go lower... I EXPECT A CRASH. The govt is essentially asleep at the wheel. Bush doesnt care, he is leaving. Btw, November something is when they vote in a new Prez. I think the market will without a doubt move in a HUGE way!

update!!! crude oil <$130 possible strangle? not for me...

SELLS & BUYS

SOLD:
MAR aug25put@2.3 (20% gain, sold near high)
HK sept50call@5.6 (sold too early, got jittery $30 profit, being careful)
LEH july5put@.24 (got back this 100% loss for a 5% loss)

BOUGHT:
USO aug117call@6.7 (broke to new high and confirmed/closed to new high)
LEH aug12.5put@3.5 (if FNM/FRE can go this low all financial can...)

Solid Hold:
HOT aug30put... held up. bought it back@.76 - reached a new option high 1.25 - nice but after MARs earnings I think HOT may have some bad news coming as well. I may sell into earnings and reposition day before... just to keep that profit.
RHT jan12.5put... its has time and bad fundamentals.

Jittery Hold:
RIMM july95put:if GOOG sinks... well there you go, i considered this a loss last week
GOOG aug400put: i saw it gain 100+ points its last earnings. who said it cant lose that much and more.
PLCN july80put: up in value, but no volume - basically worthless

I didnt have time to research much. I had a very important convention to go to today. Someone asked me about setting up for iPhone debut, i was like, nope... However, the energy sector has got back its mojo (altho i sold HK, missed a bigger profit and would have re-entered, but i was pressed for time today)

All in all uneventful, but profitable & disciplined. Opportunities for bigger profit, but i wasnt going to get up at 325am to participate.

OIL (USO )kicks butt again/AAPL iPhone/HK ʻalamoʻ

I actually saw it beginning to breakout but didnt jump in... it broke from 111 and propelled to 114 and i showed it to my wife this morning... it happened in <1 minute... amazing. If USO crosses 116 i will be there ready...

AAPL will have some bragging rights depending on how many iPhone 3Gs are actually sold tomorrow (in some countries today). You better believe i will place a strangle in there with a bullish bias depending on iPhone numbers. I never expected people in Europe and Asia to camp out for these things.

HK is my lone position that is profitable, i actually caught this thing prior to its second to the last rally of the day. (The rest of my portfolio total about $100 loss, not bad it could have been worse) HK can get to 50 easier now with Oil on its side. Interestingly, even when oil initially head down with other energy securities, HK broke to a new high. So, if anything, it will be one of the last energy positions standing (remember the Alamo). Look to HK and buy dips... during a trading session. I have that call going into Sept.

I have a little unusual position on HOT & MAR. The news cant get any better going forward for them. But I worry that my going with August puts leave little room for volatility...

I have packed weekend so no trading tomorrow. Setting a couple sell stops...

SOLD DIA put

I have not made a buck on DIA puts. The one time it showed green on my screen (last week), i didnt know it was a short session (July 3). I wont be getting DIA any time soon. It may be good to buy at sessions end as it is hovering at these levels and sell at sessions open the next day, but i am cutting my loss here...

Sold
CHL aug65put
DIA aug111put

So my positions include thus far:
-holding pattern
RHT jan12.5put
RIMM july95puts (will cut this loser soon)
GOOG july400put (my spec)

bought today
HOT aug30puts (hopefully works out based on MAR)
MAR aug25puts (better late than never, hopefully)
HK sept50call (lone bull for now)

Cash... i wont go all in... if this was all bonus money than sure... but i am still the average dude trying to pay of my debt.

I KNEW IT... DONT HAVE TO BE A GENIUS TO FIGURE IT OUT: MAR/HOT and USO/HK(again)

Well MAR dropped as expected, and the sick part is I wasnt part of the put buying. I am not allowing that to happen with regard to HOT which also dropped on MARs earnings and guidance.

Bought
HOT aug30puts@.75. It may at least double in the time prior to earnings on July 24.
MAR aug25puts@1.9 It may be later than expected, but it has more downside DESPITE the chart saying bottom. Either way, why didnt i buy both these puts earlier?

Oh, Oil is oversold mind you. It will get to $140. If it crosses $146 back up your truck...

HK... i wished i kept that call... anyway, i switched out my small CHL put for an HK sept50call.

SOLD!!! Most of everything... Reassess

Sold:
HK Sept45call 23% gain (4-ish am HST)
IPI Aug60call 20%+ gain (4-ish am HST)
DUG Aug35call 39% loss (glad i sold)
IYR Sept58put 44% loss (sold too soon)

The last sell (IYR) i just plain gave up, but as it turns out it looks like it may get ITM soon. So, sold off a bit prematurely. The same could possibly be said for IPI but a profit is a profit and it looks like my wins outweigh my losses so far today.

Will reposition portfolio at sessions end. Oil is still unstable, but it still keeps a cap on rallies.

So, i have a couple things to consider: buy IYR puts again, USO deep ITM calls, HK calls, GOOG far puts (Tim), and some other stuff...

Plan Sticks... Furious Closing Buys

Bought:
(1022 am EST) HK july35puts@0.10 (reaction buy from seeing the coal sector crash all around it, while it broke out 2nd day in a row)

(1102 am EST) USO july113call@5.30 (no spike after crude inventory, but supply suggest USO goes higher wanted it confirmed green before buying)

(356 pm EST) DIA sept112puts@4.70 (thought of july/aug but wanted to protect from a possible rally)

(350ish pm EST) "accidently" bought x3 DIA shares (was trying for puts, not good to be trading when barely awake) so I sold it at a loss... trading 2 interfaces (AMTD & SCOTT not a good idea for someone who slept <2 hours) threw away $15. you are welcome Scottrade. My bad...

Held:
RHT jan12.5put (boring, but i see it happening)
RIMM july95puts (this shuda been the 250+% gain the other day)

Well, if there was anything i might have done differently, it would have been to go with a heavier lean on USO calls. But DIA puts work for me too, specific for unemployment news tomorrow. The thing is there is no ʻguidanceʻ or forecast attached to unemployment numbers but any surprise of lower numbers could blow up my puts. Also maybe I should have bought one IWM put... IWM surely returns better than DIA but i digress.

To sum it up got an Oil call/with a coal hedge in the form of HK puts and Index puts in the form of DIA. Pretty much ʻstuckʻ to my plan that I posted on sunday with the exception of when i actually entered all my index puts today rather than one on Tuesday and one today. HK puts was a bonus.. I still left some to cash (cant get greedy).

Index Focus on DIA

Why DIA? Because there is a large amount of energy stocks in the S&P, though it also has a bunch of Financials as well. But DIA... to be honest, it provides the clearest of all things market wise for my limited knowledge. someone out there correct me... I dont like QQQQ puts or QID because of strength from AAPL. Nor do i like IWM, too volatile for me.

The technical DJI graph i posted a few days back still says we continue in this downward channel...SEE "OIL AND $INDU" (6/26/08)... That being said, I am still waiting for a bounce, which i guess will happen today.

There was a report regarding high unemployment may lead to the FED cutting rates yet again... which of course adds to the Oil rally (again).

So I have focused my attention on the following with 1030am EST in mind:
USO calls, RDC calls, HK calls, PCLN puts, DIA puts, GG calls, RIMM puts

Sold one/Missed selling other

Well, not exactly as planned... kinda break even-ish

Sold Palm Aug5put 100% gain... BUT...
Missed selling USO july111call (would have been 15% gain). I forgot to set my stops last night.

As for today. I didnt see anything that told me it was a good idea to enter an index put. Even though Auto/construction news comes tomorrow, the technicals suggest a rally. Which is good because I want cheaper puts.

Energy was a winner. Particularly HK & SFY. There are others of course.

I missed the BIG move in PCLN. Totally lost track of it. The put buy was this past Friday, after the confirmed bear close the past Thursday (7/26/08 from Tim). Chances are it firms up a bit from here. Their earnings report is in August. Depending on how it does this week, i may enter the position. But consider this a lost 100+% gain opportunity.

My eye is firmly fix tomorrow on Oil inventory numbers. If they are higher than expected, we will find a dip. If supply is lower than expected. I might need to get in there FAST... As the Bear perfect storm of high Oil and possibly damaging unemployment numbers come thursday.

For now i am holding Aug110call. Maybe we get another spike... who knows. Clarity after crude numbers @430am HST.
It really is simple...