Re-entry... I could lose it all...

So, if WYNN blows through earnings... my renewed HOT and now MAR will be blown to zero... i still think hotels stink... lipstick, earings, a whatever else aint making their fundamentals any better...

So, bought
HOT aug30puts
MAR aug25puts (a winner and loser in my past)
Update, bought HMC aug35calls

I have very little to cash... maybe i wont have anything once this day is over.
btw, Oil will be bouncing up... glad i was able to sell USO early in the session.

Added HOT puts.... Position Summary

(3:44 p.m. EST) HOT aug35puts@.89: my last position i really wanted to snag... will find out how it goes tomorrow

My other positions bought today are small:
AAPL: sept175call@5.7 (12% gain) hope this niche rally continues
USO: aug100put@4.1 (17% gain) riding it down.

Held:
RHT: jan12.5put (-25% )
YHOO: jan32.5call/aug15puts (worthless strangle)
SNDK: aug22.5call (basically worthless from strangle)
JBLU: aug5call (small 83% gain)
EMC: aug15call (small 155% gain)

Sold:
JBLU: dec5put@1.15 (about 12% loss)
EMC: sep12put@.36 (about 50% loss)
ETFC: sept4put@.75 (breakeven) tried to cancel trade, shoulda been a profit

CASH: 15% of portfolio...

significant after market moves were generally split. if not uneventful

Waiting on GOOG... USO thoughts

I am waiting to get closer to the end of the session to firm my decision...
I do know that I will buy July options. I will risk one portfolio. If it moves half as much as last earnings there will be alot of happy options folks...

Gio had a survey for option positions yesterday. he was smart to get the puts yesterday... i thought of it but thought if the rally continued i would pay another premium...

Considerations: this is with the thought that i lose it all...
puts: july420 & 450/aug400
calls: july600 & 630

Will check back tomorrow... i am in a somber mood. not much excitement.

USO has gotten absolutely pounded the last few sessions. as it should, with the FED saying the may very will firm or even raise rates took the floor out from oil. i LEAP in oil puts is a great idea. DUG LEAP calls are still cheap as well...

Where am I?

I couldnt find anything worth buying except 1 GOOG put. It is TOO volatile for me. Sure some want to short energy - fine. I dont want any thing to do with energy (for at least a day - too sickening). I am concentrating my efforts on earnings for THIS WEEK.

GOOG:
I did buy one GOOG aug400put again with plans to buy a call day of earnings and add another put if it stuck to a specific range. i thought of buying BIDU/RIMM to mirror GOOG, but i am unsure how closely they would stick.

NOK: They will have something to say about their inability to compete with iPhone. Or is this already built into the stock...

COF: It never did break to green...

HOT may have rallied today (along with MAR), but this really is a false sector rally. Nothing in the economy has improved hotel occupancy, so for some of you out there, consider it a gift to find a cheaper put/short

In the end USO was the only position to burn me... sadly i didnt set a stop. oh and i kept getting false data from my brokerage account. it showed a 5% loss on my account value until i clicked the specific option, which showed a 40% loss. Even after USO came off its lows @110 AND after I sold my loser put, it still showed my account positions unchanged from the open! Horrible... but alas i have only myself to blame for going against the trend. No breakout... just breakdown again. I have no choice to regroup. I could have sold the meager profit on my HOT and reposition to lessen todays blow... So, remember my saying how awesome AMTD is? Well, today they stunk it up...

Oil UP Because the $US/U.S. Eco STINKS...

So the Dollar falls hard against the Euro... Thus Oil is up a bit. What now FED? You gonna panic and raise rates after bailing out FNM, FRE, BSC, and whoever else we dont know about. I say go ahead and start a new trend for us...

I think we will see how well the banks were able to manage the bad news the previous quarters. USB reports today...

A co-worker mentioned EW, Medical related... You can do your own homework on it. The question will always be guidance and the fact is the economic backdrop makes a breakout that less likely. But such surprises are truly surprises and can reward greatly, see CSIQ...

I plan to watch the following closely today:
USO: weak dollar again
HOT/MAR: both still trends down below 52 week lows
GOOG: hoping this thing actually picks up a bit (cheaper puts)
USB, C, SKF: its all about financials today
DECK: missed this fall again, but shaggy shoes in this market?

Plan is to sell Oil into this latest trend... and bombard vacation related

BOUGHT... HOLD... Check Out Bank problems ahead...

BUYS:
-HOT aug25puts & nov30put: I reloaded on HOT, with November puts to ride... A market bounce does not change Starwoods future. I wish I bought MAR puts last week. It still has room to fall to about $14/$15 low found in 2002, just before the last bull market and post 9/11.

HELD:
-USO aug117call: Stronger $US keeping it from breaking out, yet $/barrel going sideways, but one attack in middle east spells a spike...
-RHT jan12.5put: boring... but look at it! It is dying slowly... almost no option volume, just waiting for future stink earnings.

Props to GIO who got a nice spike on CSIQ. I almost bought it today... nope. I cant go against the general market trend. I dont have the fortitude to follow solars. Apologies to Brian, maybe he should have bought that iPhone position... and sold. It was a net 100%+ on calls with the same going for puts if you positioned for a fade.

Watchlist: MAR, GOOG, NOK, C.

CHECK out this link, thot FNM/FRE like fiascos are over? think again...
www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a1liVM3tG3aI&refer=exclusive

SELLS & BUYS

SOLD:
MAR aug25put@2.3 (20% gain, sold near high)
HK sept50call@5.6 (sold too early, got jittery $30 profit, being careful)
LEH july5put@.24 (got back this 100% loss for a 5% loss)

BOUGHT:
USO aug117call@6.7 (broke to new high and confirmed/closed to new high)
LEH aug12.5put@3.5 (if FNM/FRE can go this low all financial can...)

Solid Hold:
HOT aug30put... held up. bought it back@.76 - reached a new option high 1.25 - nice but after MARs earnings I think HOT may have some bad news coming as well. I may sell into earnings and reposition day before... just to keep that profit.
RHT jan12.5put... its has time and bad fundamentals.

Jittery Hold:
RIMM july95put:if GOOG sinks... well there you go, i considered this a loss last week
GOOG aug400put: i saw it gain 100+ points its last earnings. who said it cant lose that much and more.
PLCN july80put: up in value, but no volume - basically worthless

I didnt have time to research much. I had a very important convention to go to today. Someone asked me about setting up for iPhone debut, i was like, nope... However, the energy sector has got back its mojo (altho i sold HK, missed a bigger profit and would have re-entered, but i was pressed for time today)

All in all uneventful, but profitable & disciplined. Opportunities for bigger profit, but i wasnt going to get up at 325am to participate.

OIL (USO )kicks butt again/AAPL iPhone/HK ʻalamoʻ

I actually saw it beginning to breakout but didnt jump in... it broke from 111 and propelled to 114 and i showed it to my wife this morning... it happened in <1 minute... amazing. If USO crosses 116 i will be there ready...

AAPL will have some bragging rights depending on how many iPhone 3Gs are actually sold tomorrow (in some countries today). You better believe i will place a strangle in there with a bullish bias depending on iPhone numbers. I never expected people in Europe and Asia to camp out for these things.

HK is my lone position that is profitable, i actually caught this thing prior to its second to the last rally of the day. (The rest of my portfolio total about $100 loss, not bad it could have been worse) HK can get to 50 easier now with Oil on its side. Interestingly, even when oil initially head down with other energy securities, HK broke to a new high. So, if anything, it will be one of the last energy positions standing (remember the Alamo). Look to HK and buy dips... during a trading session. I have that call going into Sept.

I have a little unusual position on HOT & MAR. The news cant get any better going forward for them. But I worry that my going with August puts leave little room for volatility...

I have packed weekend so no trading tomorrow. Setting a couple sell stops...

I KNEW IT... DONT HAVE TO BE A GENIUS TO FIGURE IT OUT: MAR/HOT and USO/HK(again)

Well MAR dropped as expected, and the sick part is I wasnt part of the put buying. I am not allowing that to happen with regard to HOT which also dropped on MARs earnings and guidance.

Bought
HOT aug30puts@.75. It may at least double in the time prior to earnings on July 24.
MAR aug25puts@1.9 It may be later than expected, but it has more downside DESPITE the chart saying bottom. Either way, why didnt i buy both these puts earlier?

Oh, Oil is oversold mind you. It will get to $140. If it crosses $146 back up your truck...

HK... i wished i kept that call... anyway, i switched out my small CHL put for an HK sept50call.

Put buying... Argh! forgot to buy MAR!

BOUGHT PUTS:
GOOG aug400put (450 pm EST)
DIA aug111put (452 pm EST)
CHL aug65put (456 pm EST)

So how did i forget to buy MAR!!! They report before market opens tomorrow... But i have been squawking about this one in the past and now that the time has come i forget to buy puts... ridiculous!!!

The Casinos got whacked today... didnt pay attention again... too many ʻoptionsʻ

Anyway, Bear Market/Bear Market/Bear Market... i dont know what bottom some are calling but it aint here yet. I have be content with my positions and not cry about missing MAR. GOOG may pay out in spades if Tim is right on again... He has featured RIMM & PCLN when they were barely showing bear signs. I will give a mucho grande props for him if he is right on with GOOG. They report July 17 after market closes, i may buy some puts that day, but we shall see how this week goes til then with what i have.

Btw, if $oil/barrel crosses <130 i am buying puts in USO... I may try my IYR theory again

SOLD!!! Most of everything... Reassess

Sold:
HK Sept45call 23% gain (4-ish am HST)
IPI Aug60call 20%+ gain (4-ish am HST)
DUG Aug35call 39% loss (glad i sold)
IYR Sept58put 44% loss (sold too soon)

The last sell (IYR) i just plain gave up, but as it turns out it looks like it may get ITM soon. So, sold off a bit prematurely. The same could possibly be said for IPI but a profit is a profit and it looks like my wins outweigh my losses so far today.

Will reposition portfolio at sessions end. Oil is still unstable, but it still keeps a cap on rallies.

So, i have a couple things to consider: buy IYR puts again, USO deep ITM calls, HK calls, GOOG far puts (Tim), and some other stuff...

AAPL cart... Oil... IWM

Glanced at some other blogs of dudes a lot more intelligent than me. AAPL has been suggested as going on the short list. The technical tend to agree with the channel high 170s to low mid 160s. The long term put is much safer - as the longer trend shows it heading to 120... its solid base before double digits.

HOWEVER, the pent up news coming July 11 is something of note. iPhone release day. I am one who does not own one nor wants one (yet). but people have already been standing in line for these things and the number of those interested since the price cut is unbelievable (update 8am HST: UK is SOLD OUT of iPhone 3G before it is even released). so anyone shorting AAPL just prior to July 11 and out of the 160-178 range BE VERY careful. Price spikes in AAPL is something wicked that can eat you alive (i have lost on both the call/put side...)

Oil has somewhat recovered and kept to the 140ʻs. I didnt sell my lone USO call, just thought about it. Of course, had i NOT owned it (which was supposed to happen with a sell on a holiday Thursday session, i would have bought it up again...)

IWM must have rewarded a few people today. Unlike DIA & SPY, this thing moves in a big way. it is near its 52 wk low @65. So, much care is needed in puts/shorts

Plan Sticks... Furious Closing Buys

Bought:
(1022 am EST) HK july35puts@0.10 (reaction buy from seeing the coal sector crash all around it, while it broke out 2nd day in a row)

(1102 am EST) USO july113call@5.30 (no spike after crude inventory, but supply suggest USO goes higher wanted it confirmed green before buying)

(356 pm EST) DIA sept112puts@4.70 (thought of july/aug but wanted to protect from a possible rally)

(350ish pm EST) "accidently" bought x3 DIA shares (was trying for puts, not good to be trading when barely awake) so I sold it at a loss... trading 2 interfaces (AMTD & SCOTT not a good idea for someone who slept <2 hours) threw away $15. you are welcome Scottrade. My bad...

Held:
RHT jan12.5put (boring, but i see it happening)
RIMM july95puts (this shuda been the 250+% gain the other day)

Well, if there was anything i might have done differently, it would have been to go with a heavier lean on USO calls. But DIA puts work for me too, specific for unemployment news tomorrow. The thing is there is no ʻguidanceʻ or forecast attached to unemployment numbers but any surprise of lower numbers could blow up my puts. Also maybe I should have bought one IWM put... IWM surely returns better than DIA but i digress.

To sum it up got an Oil call/with a coal hedge in the form of HK puts and Index puts in the form of DIA. Pretty much ʻstuckʻ to my plan that I posted on sunday with the exception of when i actually entered all my index puts today rather than one on Tuesday and one today. HK puts was a bonus.. I still left some to cash (cant get greedy).

Index Focus on DIA

Why DIA? Because there is a large amount of energy stocks in the S&P, though it also has a bunch of Financials as well. But DIA... to be honest, it provides the clearest of all things market wise for my limited knowledge. someone out there correct me... I dont like QQQQ puts or QID because of strength from AAPL. Nor do i like IWM, too volatile for me.

The technical DJI graph i posted a few days back still says we continue in this downward channel...SEE "OIL AND $INDU" (6/26/08)... That being said, I am still waiting for a bounce, which i guess will happen today.

There was a report regarding high unemployment may lead to the FED cutting rates yet again... which of course adds to the Oil rally (again).

So I have focused my attention on the following with 1030am EST in mind:
USO calls, RDC calls, HK calls, PCLN puts, DIA puts, GG calls, RIMM puts

A bit miffed... Missed a sell & Without a meaningful position at the moment

Well i HAD a plan to carry out today (like buying some SLW).... but slept right through it. My alarm was set on vibrate... just great (sarcasm)

Altho i gave AMTD much props for helping me this morning. I still forgot to sell my RIMM july100put position @ a 250% gain! because i didnt set a stop the day before! It will surely go to zero at this point... at the very least i would have sold for a loss today.

It seems as though i have no choice but to watch others have fun tomorrow. I will just have to join the action later. 430am HST. It will give me the first glimpse of possible positions... Energy might continue its run based on crude inventories tomorrow.

Also of interest is the fact that the people deciding on the Euro may actually raise rates on Thursday (July 3)... thereby weakening the US$ and strengthening Oil/Gold further. (FED did its job of weakening the US$, now others can join in maybe they are all in the same boat while Uncle George ʻOilʻ Bush is the prez)

Anyway, my planned positions for this week has basically worked out. Going to cash prior to crude numbers AND again prior to unemployment numbers on Thursday...

Sold one/Missed selling other

Well, not exactly as planned... kinda break even-ish

Sold Palm Aug5put 100% gain... BUT...
Missed selling USO july111call (would have been 15% gain). I forgot to set my stops last night.

As for today. I didnt see anything that told me it was a good idea to enter an index put. Even though Auto/construction news comes tomorrow, the technicals suggest a rally. Which is good because I want cheaper puts.

Energy was a winner. Particularly HK & SFY. There are others of course.

I missed the BIG move in PCLN. Totally lost track of it. The put buy was this past Friday, after the confirmed bear close the past Thursday (7/26/08 from Tim). Chances are it firms up a bit from here. Their earnings report is in August. Depending on how it does this week, i may enter the position. But consider this a lost 100+% gain opportunity.

My eye is firmly fix tomorrow on Oil inventory numbers. If they are higher than expected, we will find a dip. If supply is lower than expected. I might need to get in there FAST... As the Bear perfect storm of high Oil and possibly damaging unemployment numbers come thursday.

For now i am holding Aug110call. Maybe we get another spike... who knows. Clarity after crude numbers @430am HST.
It really is simple...

This Week (June 30 - July 3) Outlined Plan (Position for Eco news)

This week:
July 1: Auto Sales/Construction spending
July 2: Factory Orders/crude inventories
July 3: Unemployment rate

So here is my plan for this week...
June 30: See market sentiment
- hopefully there is a bounce, to get in cheaper index puts/shorts
- Auto/Construction may already be priced in, but get first index position

July 1: See how the market opens/market sentiment
- If auto/construction leaves market flat hold 1st index position (but take profit)
- leave my one call on oil if stays flat. but sell at profit
****crude inventories lately seem to be more than expected (greater supply)

July 2: i think there might be a dip in oil/energy it after crude numbers, dip in energy means possibly cheaper index puts.
- buy oil/energy after numbers released (4:30a HST) AND
- buy index puts/ultrashorts if have not done so already.
- i like DIA & SPY puts or SDS calls.
- IWM put maybe, it depends. The Russell is volatile and may close where it opened

July 3: Unemployment numbers are out early. It is worth my getting up (*sigh* 3:30a HST)
- SELL for PROFIT (especially security puts) if market tanks... otherwise, let it ride if it opens flat or even higher.
- If sold positions, Re-enter index puts/oil calls at end of session, uneasiness during the weekend may spur more selling the next week. it depends on what the Unemployment numbers are... mind you there are ALOT of people fired from brokerages houses, banks, airlines... but we shall see how it affects overall numbers.

To some it up, buy Oil/Energy dip (possibly July 2)
Buy Index put/shorts July 2...

Hmm maybe i should focus on July 2nd instead of July 3rd

HUH?... Green Days Continue ON BAD NEWS

Well, FNM loses what, billion bucks and goes green?

This is all a set-up. Granted i am definitely happy to see V go up along for the ride (nearly 50% gain). But i dont expect this summer to be this UNLOGICAL. The big brokers are doing a major fake-out. The underlying market, world economy is sinking and yet the street is telling us otherwise. And boy the OIH thing i tried was sure a waste of $

The stocks on my radar are ones with high volume and great fundamentals:
1) MA & V - people will never stop using credit cards. Get ready for V to really push in China during the Olympics. MA tho still has greater growth prospects than V. V is just finding buyers who see value relative to MAs price

2) USO (not a company, but a great mimicʻr of oil). I may place a call on expiration week (when itʻs dirt cheap). See for yourself. Itʻs when $20 can turn into $120 in a hurry. In the end i lean to safety in straight up stocks

3) AAPL - its a tough economy for tech. but Apples cool-factor wins them customers. iPhone 3G with now multi exclusive partners in some European countries is a Great thing. But do not even look at it until it touches 200. Then do a strangle. The company is handily beating its competition on the PC front & will only have Blackberrys to battle the future of mobile phones.

Gio has posted nice shorts of late, namely irbt. i like robot vacuums, hope to get one someday. But the stock stinks.

In the end, I dont trust the Street... they are luring buyers back in... all to short them/sell them out