My buddy brian called me last night to ask me about RIMM with the release of the Blacberry 9000 today. He bought May135calls and banked some nice change today. i dunno if he held it for the whole trading day, but it kept itʻs moment throughout with a slight tapering off itʻs highs.
Itʻs definitely a nice phone. being that i use a Pearl, i may very well end up with the 9000. btw, RIMM renamed this thing the Blackberry Bold 9000. Bold? Anyway, itʻs a 3G phone, higher rez, zoom camera, more multimedia friendly, GPS and 1 GB of memory on board. And they started a fund to get software dudes to build more apps for them.
Their announcement was necessary too, being that AAPL will soon release iPhone 2.0. They will formally have 3G, enterprise level email/networking (like blackberrys), SDK finalized to allow apps anywhere from biz to games. I dont think they will have built in GPS yet tho. I dont think AAPL will say much more than they did back in March. I think where they can surprise everyone is the price.
RIMM had a good day today. I did tell brian RIMM could go either way. In the end i think iPhone will surpass Blackberrys outside the U.S. That dumb deal with AT&T is actually hampering AAPL. The 9000 will not be out til the summer... Hmm just about the time iPhone 2.0/3G will be widely available.
I will touch AAPL only if it crosses 200. I have my V (negative today). And have added USO May105call@.30 on itʻs pull back. it may have reached a temporary ceiling or may be setting up for a small bounce.
Monday, May 12, 2008
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Missed Bear opportunity... yet V continues
SNCR got whacked today. May puts were like a lotto, but no one cant say they didnt see it coming. If anything everyone is concerned with bigger dogs.
V surprisingly up today. MA, DFS, AXP were all down. In any case i am not complaining, but at the same time, it makes me have doubts as to where it goes from here. But it is apparent that V <100 is considered value.
I am itching to get into USO on a big dip. But V apparently is still a winner...
V surprisingly up today. MA, DFS, AXP were all down. In any case i am not complaining, but at the same time, it makes me have doubts as to where it goes from here. But it is apparent that V <100 is considered value.
I am itching to get into USO on a big dip. But V apparently is still a winner...
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
HUH?... Green Days Continue ON BAD NEWS
Well, FNM loses what, billion bucks and goes green?
This is all a set-up. Granted i am definitely happy to see V go up along for the ride (nearly 50% gain). But i dont expect this summer to be this UNLOGICAL. The big brokers are doing a major fake-out. The underlying market, world economy is sinking and yet the street is telling us otherwise. And boy the OIH thing i tried was sure a waste of $
The stocks on my radar are ones with high volume and great fundamentals:
1) MA & V - people will never stop using credit cards. Get ready for V to really push in China during the Olympics. MA tho still has greater growth prospects than V. V is just finding buyers who see value relative to MAs price
2) USO (not a company, but a great mimicʻr of oil). I may place a call on expiration week (when itʻs dirt cheap). See for yourself. Itʻs when $20 can turn into $120 in a hurry. In the end i lean to safety in straight up stocks
3) AAPL - its a tough economy for tech. but Apples cool-factor wins them customers. iPhone 3G with now multi exclusive partners in some European countries is a Great thing. But do not even look at it until it touches 200. Then do a strangle. The company is handily beating its competition on the PC front & will only have Blackberrys to battle the future of mobile phones.
Gio has posted nice shorts of late, namely irbt. i like robot vacuums, hope to get one someday. But the stock stinks.
In the end, I dont trust the Street... they are luring buyers back in... all to short them/sell them out
This is all a set-up. Granted i am definitely happy to see V go up along for the ride (nearly 50% gain). But i dont expect this summer to be this UNLOGICAL. The big brokers are doing a major fake-out. The underlying market, world economy is sinking and yet the street is telling us otherwise. And boy the OIH thing i tried was sure a waste of $
The stocks on my radar are ones with high volume and great fundamentals:
1) MA & V - people will never stop using credit cards. Get ready for V to really push in China during the Olympics. MA tho still has greater growth prospects than V. V is just finding buyers who see value relative to MAs price
2) USO (not a company, but a great mimicʻr of oil). I may place a call on expiration week (when itʻs dirt cheap). See for yourself. Itʻs when $20 can turn into $120 in a hurry. In the end i lean to safety in straight up stocks
3) AAPL - its a tough economy for tech. but Apples cool-factor wins them customers. iPhone 3G with now multi exclusive partners in some European countries is a Great thing. But do not even look at it until it touches 200. Then do a strangle. The company is handily beating its competition on the PC front & will only have Blackberrys to battle the future of mobile phones.
Gio has posted nice shorts of late, namely irbt. i like robot vacuums, hope to get one someday. But the stock stinks.
In the end, I dont trust the Street... they are luring buyers back in... all to short them/sell them out
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Patience Over Greed...
Its too early to say based on my last post, "Well, That didn't work...", MAYBE, it did work... I dont know at this point. I am just trying to stay disciplined. Cover my bases.
So, whats going on...
V is still trending up. My May100call may be in reach, but i have some cheap puts if disaster happens
AS FOR THE ENERGY RELATED:
OIH May put may take time to find a solid green sans commissions. Nonetheless, big bull run and strengthening of the dollar would be bad for oil... and OIH which continually bumps into resistance. I will not call a top. Whoever does that usually pays
FSLR got pounded today...Ags are just slightly down. I am happy i no longer am involved in either. The $ may be switching to other sectors. But i still believe oil will be up further in the summer. History doesnt lie. In fact, i may buy some USO if it crashed to the 70s.
Anyway, AAPL (my other favorite outside of V) is killing as it did last time this year. I have no doubt it will be worth getting back in when the charts show it building a base past 200. Let the chart decide. The 3G iPhone and new apps due out in June AND the possible selling price in the $200's may gain blackberry switchers(i dont remember anyone else coining the term, but its basically like windows switchers)
So, whats going on...
V is still trending up. My May100call may be in reach, but i have some cheap puts if disaster happens
AS FOR THE ENERGY RELATED:
OIH May put may take time to find a solid green sans commissions. Nonetheless, big bull run and strengthening of the dollar would be bad for oil... and OIH which continually bumps into resistance. I will not call a top. Whoever does that usually pays
FSLR got pounded today...Ags are just slightly down. I am happy i no longer am involved in either. The $ may be switching to other sectors. But i still believe oil will be up further in the summer. History doesnt lie. In fact, i may buy some USO if it crashed to the 70s.
Anyway, AAPL (my other favorite outside of V) is killing as it did last time this year. I have no doubt it will be worth getting back in when the charts show it building a base past 200. Let the chart decide. The 3G iPhone and new apps due out in June AND the possible selling price in the $200's may gain blackberry switchers(i dont remember anyone else coining the term, but its basically like windows switchers)
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Well, OK, that didnt work...
OIH is blasting off on a 1/4 rate cut.
So, what happen, today at least...
OIH puts... nope, it went green (tho facing resistance@ 197). the rate cut made the dollars cheaper (good for oil), but this may be the last cut in awhile (bad for oil, but good for my oil put)
V is going sideways of all things... it seemed like it was blasting off at the outset @ exactly 215pm
V may100calls... nope, too far out
V may65puts... nope I dunno... its good thing actually, this was just insurance since i still have the bulk of my portfolio here
In other words... worst scenerio in terms of options. But i realize this week will be full of "stuff" for the economy to digest. And the charts do say that oil (as reflected on the commods)
This week will still be of interest. But i have no real transactions to make at this point... they are all set...
update @ 305pm EST: strong sell off happening NOW...
update @ 316pm EST: Tim is kinda gloating about IWM
update @ 318pm EST: a lot of so-called pro traders dont know what to do... the market is eating up everyone somehow. some that have fallen have found a bottom for the day and are now reversing... ha. funny...
So, what happen, today at least...
OIH puts... nope, it went green (tho facing resistance@ 197). the rate cut made the dollars cheaper (good for oil), but this may be the last cut in awhile (bad for oil, but good for my oil put)
V is going sideways of all things... it seemed like it was blasting off at the outset @ exactly 215pm
V may100calls... nope, too far out
V may65puts... nope I dunno... its good thing actually, this was just insurance since i still have the bulk of my portfolio here
In other words... worst scenerio in terms of options. But i realize this week will be full of "stuff" for the economy to digest. And the charts do say that oil (as reflected on the commods)
This week will still be of interest. But i have no real transactions to make at this point... they are all set...
update @ 305pm EST: strong sell off happening NOW...
update @ 316pm EST: Tim is kinda gloating about IWM
update @ 318pm EST: a lot of so-called pro traders dont know what to do... the market is eating up everyone somehow. some that have fallen have found a bottom for the day and are now reversing... ha. funny...
Sold Some V.
V is up since my purchase >40% at the time of this post. Not bad. With the FED reporting in a few minutes. I had to be smart and hedge the situation. Otherwise, the rest remains in V for the time being... I really should set a stop. but i am in this thing for the long haul.
Sold some V to do the following
V x5 May100calls@.27
V x5 May65puts@.05()
OIH x5 May165put@.27 (oil has been correcting a few days now, and is possibly set to get whacked)
Well, thats all folks. 5 more minutes til the fireworks begin
Sold some V to do the following
V x5 May100calls@.27
V x5 May65puts@.05()
OIH x5 May165put@.27 (oil has been correcting a few days now, and is possibly set to get whacked)
Well, thats all folks. 5 more minutes til the fireworks begin
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
MA killed... Will FSLR follow?
Looking at MA. Its more apparent to me that it has more growth than V. sigh.
FSLR is the big dog in solars. And they always seem to impress on earnings day. All the oil talk fuel FSLR and Ags.
Tomorrow the fireworks begin with the FED. ANYTHING... and I mean ANYTHING positive will fuel another rally. Today was proof. Consumer confidence, Foreclosures, at highs and yet the market remains stable, even green for some...
Well, i'm sitting on V. i wonder if i should hold it past the FED meeting. The Gross National stuff will point us in a direction, but that will change quickly come 2:15pm EST.
FSLR is the big dog in solars. And they always seem to impress on earnings day. All the oil talk fuel FSLR and Ags.
Tomorrow the fireworks begin with the FED. ANYTHING... and I mean ANYTHING positive will fuel another rally. Today was proof. Consumer confidence, Foreclosures, at highs and yet the market remains stable, even green for some...
Well, i'm sitting on V. i wonder if i should hold it past the FED meeting. The Gross National stuff will point us in a direction, but that will change quickly come 2:15pm EST.
I was right AND wrong... on V
So, maybe now i should buy a put, considering the FED will open their big mouth in a few minutes - then you will see some volatility. The aftermarket red yesterday actually reversed to green today. Was it a fake out by the big brokers? Maybe. More likely it was their competitor MA that V is riding its coat tails on.
I do think that this week will say alot about how V (or for that matter any particular stock) will fare. Say the FED says tomorrow that everything stinks, cut rates with a note that they will pause on these quarterly cuts - if your ticker continues northward... good times ahead. If the stock keeps this trend in this horrible economy, then you can imagine what happens if a bull market was to return... which i dont see happening for a long time.
I do think that this week will say alot about how V (or for that matter any particular stock) will fare. Say the FED says tomorrow that everything stinks, cut rates with a note that they will pause on these quarterly cuts - if your ticker continues northward... good times ahead. If the stock keeps this trend in this horrible economy, then you can imagine what happens if a bull market was to return... which i dont see happening for a long time.
And There you go... my previous post was spot on.
The protective put deal would have worked out for an earnings disappointment like this. However, the report wasnt all gloom. I have no exit price at this point. The typical would be a trailing stop of 10% (i am looking long and looking to avoid being tax 35% vs. 15% on securities cashed <1 yr.) Anyway, prior to earnings the stop/exit would have been $67ish. If that's the case your protective put would have been 67.5 or even 65 (worst case scenerio).
being that i didnt have any free capital. i left it alone. what i could have done was sell a share and get my protective put aka insurance.
The aftermarket action of $5 in the red may narrow by the premarket tomorrow (or widen). The FED also will have a say on how much the economy stinks and a rate cut to boot. Anything can happen when the FED is involved.
Suffice it to say, a price drop for V could actually just bring in more buyers. I am still in the green on this and remain an investor NOT a trader for the time being.
being that i didnt have any free capital. i left it alone. what i could have done was sell a share and get my protective put aka insurance.
The aftermarket action of $5 in the red may narrow by the premarket tomorrow (or widen). The FED also will have a say on how much the economy stinks and a rate cut to boot. Anything can happen when the FED is involved.
Suffice it to say, a price drop for V could actually just bring in more buyers. I am still in the green on this and remain an investor NOT a trader for the time being.
Monday, April 28, 2008
V earnings await...
Well, i wish i had options on this thing weeks ago. Usually when you deal with options to make $, you would sell half or even all your calls today and buy puts to protect your actual stock. This stock has a ways to go on the upside.
Mind you, there is trouble ahead in the economy. But V seems more resistant to those problems than retail, tech, banks. With rising oil prices, Ags (tho some are taking a pounding today) and maybe Solar may be the only other choice.
Mind you, there is trouble ahead in the economy. But V seems more resistant to those problems than retail, tech, banks. With rising oil prices, Ags (tho some are taking a pounding today) and maybe Solar may be the only other choice.
Friday, April 25, 2008
Recession...Smeshion
So, *YAWN*, it appears a number of states are in a recession... Hello? Old news. blah, blah, blah.
Anyway, V reports on Monday after the bell. itʻs had a nice run. and considering that itʻs main competitor MA, is having a crazy run over the last 2 years (even during a recession mind you), things do bode well for V. We will see how their earnings stack up against the rest. And this provides a baseline for future growth. i am so tempted to throw some calls at this thing by selling actual stock. I havent quite decided.
For now my semi-comparison is found in MA, not all roses, but check out the movement on earnings...
Well this is V thus far... keep it in your brain prior to earnings April 28 and watch the fun happen.
Anyway, V reports on Monday after the bell. itʻs had a nice run. and considering that itʻs main competitor MA, is having a crazy run over the last 2 years (even during a recession mind you), things do bode well for V. We will see how their earnings stack up against the rest. And this provides a baseline for future growth. i am so tempted to throw some calls at this thing by selling actual stock. I havent quite decided.
For now my semi-comparison is found in MA, not all roses, but check out the movement on earnings...
Well this is V thus far... keep it in your brain prior to earnings April 28 and watch the fun happen.
Friday, April 18, 2008
WRONG UPDATE....
GOOG Apr500call worth $55 yesterday... i looked at it and said Nah... wont happen. Today same call option worth almost $4300!. this market is messed up... extremes. i threw some $ at AAPL calls today. way out of the money for July. who knows, they may have a run like last year. $80ʻs to $120ʻs.(50% run)
WRONG!!!
GOOG kicked butt for sure. I for one didnt see an Apr500call within reach... boy was i wrong. and what a waste of $ being thrown at financials... no bad news surprised anyone.
the saving grace is that most of my $ is in V. And any positive news in general has been gathering buyers. once they release their first public earnings, then we may have a nice run - and option call opportunities. Otherwise, looks like iʻll be sitting on the side for some time til the smoke clears.
I am tempted to trade AAPL. but why... anyway, until it breaks 200. i refuse to buy. i will let the chart decide that for me. The company will be fine. my guess is they are benefiting from substantial discounts in flash RAM for their iPods/iPhones. but all i care about is the chart... no more emotional tie ins.
the saving grace is that most of my $ is in V. And any positive news in general has been gathering buyers. once they release their first public earnings, then we may have a nice run - and option call opportunities. Otherwise, looks like iʻll be sitting on the side for some time til the smoke clears.
I am tempted to trade AAPL. but why... anyway, until it breaks 200. i refuse to buy. i will let the chart decide that for me. The company will be fine. my guess is they are benefiting from substantial discounts in flash RAM for their iPods/iPhones. but all i care about is the chart... no more emotional tie ins.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Bought...yesterday & today
ETFC Apr3put@.15 & C Apr20put@.08... hey, i know they probably did hit bottom, but at this point after BSC, who knows.
MAR order thankfully didnt get in at my limit yesterday. but todays earnings sure points to where this stock is going... i will be watching closely. but itʻs heading downward, slowly. i may have to wait til it reports the next time around.
Iʻm trying to get ESLR Apr12.5call@.10. i refuse to pay any more. itʻs slightly up today, but the leader FSLR is not.
Iʻm bummed i didnt buy NOK apr30put. in any case, NOK is being are in denial regarding competition from iPhone(calling it a niche product) and in turn RIMM. the writing is on the wall. RIMM & AAPL will lead the smartphone charge... and no other companies will be able to compete effectively against the shift towards smartphones. sure, NOK has high end really cool stuff, but they are too pricey if u ask me. They may have market share, but who cares if your customer base doesnt grow by selling dumbphones instead of more profitable smartphones. Well, thatʻs my 2 cents, which i wish i placed in some of their puts.
btw, the word may soon get out on the iPod Touch being a trojan iPhone. It is cheaper and has more memory, but if it finds a WIFI to connect, starting June/July we will see VOIP apps.
MAR order thankfully didnt get in at my limit yesterday. but todays earnings sure points to where this stock is going... i will be watching closely. but itʻs heading downward, slowly. i may have to wait til it reports the next time around.
Iʻm trying to get ESLR Apr12.5call@.10. i refuse to pay any more. itʻs slightly up today, but the leader FSLR is not.
Iʻm bummed i didnt buy NOK apr30put. in any case, NOK is being are in denial regarding competition from iPhone(calling it a niche product) and in turn RIMM. the writing is on the wall. RIMM & AAPL will lead the smartphone charge... and no other companies will be able to compete effectively against the shift towards smartphones. sure, NOK has high end really cool stuff, but they are too pricey if u ask me. They may have market share, but who cares if your customer base doesnt grow by selling dumbphones instead of more profitable smartphones. Well, thatʻs my 2 cents, which i wish i placed in some of their puts.
btw, the word may soon get out on the iPod Touch being a trojan iPhone. It is cheaper and has more memory, but if it finds a WIFI to connect, starting June/July we will see VOIP apps.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Cheap near expiration option technique.
INTCʻs guidance will have saved tech for now.
a buddy of mine (with a Nice 3-series) shared this way of positioning at the end of option expiration because of the nearly 0 premium on time. it is that much more powerful when it exists in line with earnings report. so if u positioned for INTC, u could have bought an Apr22.5call and Apr19put for $19 & $17 respectively - a cheap strangle. if they hit in the money, hey congrats to u. Looking at the after-market it would have been a nice call. tomorrows pre-market is what will show how successful of a trade that would be.
i have a couple of old puts on JPM & WFC. if the same strategy was used hereʻs the breakdown
WFC: Apr30call@.05 Apr25put@.25 or.30 cheap... WORTH IT!
JPM: Apr45call@.22 Apr37.5put@.19 NOT WORTH IT, TOO FAR OUT...
So, in terms of value strangles OR just puts all report April 17(a= after/b=before bell): CAL(b), ETFC(a), MAR(b), ESLR(a)
April 18: C (b).... this may be another smoking gun...
unfortunately i have older options that has loss on time decay.
JPM: June22.5put (thereʻs still a chance... if more BSC hiding is out there...)
WFC Apr22.5put (itʻs been trading sideways...)
a buddy of mine (with a Nice 3-series) shared this way of positioning at the end of option expiration because of the nearly 0 premium on time. it is that much more powerful when it exists in line with earnings report. so if u positioned for INTC, u could have bought an Apr22.5call and Apr19put for $19 & $17 respectively - a cheap strangle. if they hit in the money, hey congrats to u. Looking at the after-market it would have been a nice call. tomorrows pre-market is what will show how successful of a trade that would be.
i have a couple of old puts on JPM & WFC. if the same strategy was used hereʻs the breakdown
WFC: Apr30call@.05 Apr25put@.25 or.30 cheap... WORTH IT!
JPM: Apr45call@.22 Apr37.5put@.19 NOT WORTH IT, TOO FAR OUT...
So, in terms of value strangles OR just puts all report April 17(a= after/b=before bell): CAL(b), ETFC(a), MAR(b), ESLR(a)
April 18: C (b).... this may be another smoking gun...
unfortunately i have older options that has loss on time decay.
JPM: June22.5put (thereʻs still a chance... if more BSC hiding is out there...)
WFC Apr22.5put (itʻs been trading sideways...)
Monday, April 14, 2008
Tech... yawn...
So INTC is up next on earnings... problem is the sideways action of the market. the only ones making $ are the brokerages with the overtrading clients and the option sellers/writers.
Anyway, i am only posting this to make sure i still know my password. The real fun begins at the end of the year.
I've lost enough this year... I got a phat return because of losing last year (Same problem: setting stops). Just riding the pine with V.
AAPL reports next week. i think they will beat as expected and have guidance that doesn't surprise anyone. but if they fail to meet... look for a pounding... the warning signs on what Wall Street would do showed up a couple/few days ago when it lost $7+ on nonsense news.
So, life is easy now... one year since i married my honey... what else could be better. $ is worthless when you have no one to share it with...
Anyway, i am only posting this to make sure i still know my password. The real fun begins at the end of the year.
I've lost enough this year... I got a phat return because of losing last year (Same problem: setting stops). Just riding the pine with V.
AAPL reports next week. i think they will beat as expected and have guidance that doesn't surprise anyone. but if they fail to meet... look for a pounding... the warning signs on what Wall Street would do showed up a couple/few days ago when it lost $7+ on nonsense news.
So, life is easy now... one year since i married my honey... what else could be better. $ is worthless when you have no one to share it with...
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Itʻs fun NOT trading...
Yup, itʻs fun, why? because i dont have to worry about losing whatʻs left of my portfolio everyday. Itʻs kinda like the old days when i bought my first stock in 1997. wish i bought more at that time (AAPL), but someone convinced me to buy govʻt bonds.
this is kinda funny... wish i saw it earlier. unfortunate for BSC holders - wish i bought puts, i had in WFC instead... oh well...
anyway, i have just a few puts, some bought some time ago (where i forgot to set a stop) & a couple cheap puts ($20 and under) ... and the rest in V. itʻll be interesting to see how the Leaders will act during earnings... small rallys here and there...
this is kinda funny... wish i saw it earlier. unfortunate for BSC holders - wish i bought puts, i had in WFC instead... oh well...
anyway, i have just a few puts, some bought some time ago (where i forgot to set a stop) & a couple cheap puts ($20 and under) ... and the rest in V. itʻll be interesting to see how the Leaders will act during earnings... small rallys here and there...
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
RIMM... and some stuff...
I did a weak stranggle on earnings today... weak meaning kinda far out... the after hours look just o.k. so maybe i just threw some $ away. it was a far cry from a $10+ after hours spike. i already put in a sell order on my lone RIMM call...
the market otherwise should be heading back down... thus, my puts are still in play... friday has a huge jobs report... could be a nasty day for those thinking we hit bottom. V is doing fine... and i happily will be bored with it.
the market otherwise should be heading back down... thus, my puts are still in play... friday has a huge jobs report... could be a nasty day for those thinking we hit bottom. V is doing fine... and i happily will be bored with it.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Tourism... They will be next to fall...
It must be a misprint on HOT aka Starwood Hotel, inc
Aug25put @.20? Considering that the recession will take a whack out of the visitor industry.
This week has a bunch of earnings... RIMM, MON, MOS...
That's all for now... i am just holding onto my V. If it does anything near MA, then it will be the wisest and least tiresome trade i have made all year... or for the last 2 years to be exact.
Aug25put @.20? Considering that the recession will take a whack out of the visitor industry.
This week has a bunch of earnings... RIMM, MON, MOS...
That's all for now... i am just holding onto my V. If it does anything near MA, then it will be the wisest and least tiresome trade i have made all year... or for the last 2 years to be exact.
Sunday, March 30, 2008
RIMM...
There earnings report is soon upon us... However, the future is a bit fuzzy.
The leaked specs/photos of their Blackberry 9000 was a disappointment to me. They were rumored to have a touchscreen and some other stuff. nope... the screen is still the same... and icons are basically changed. thatʻs it. itʻs still an awesome device. but i wonder about the competition... outside of Apple. Everyone is stepping up. RIMM has a huge business following that doesnt need the fancy stuff. However, their fastest growing segment are the consumers... Thatʻs where the battle lines have been drawn.
I do expect a good earnings report... the guidance is always key (aka sales pitch).
Employment report also ahead... and i obviously hope it knocks around the Market... to benefit my puts.
The leaked specs/photos of their Blackberry 9000 was a disappointment to me. They were rumored to have a touchscreen and some other stuff. nope... the screen is still the same... and icons are basically changed. thatʻs it. itʻs still an awesome device. but i wonder about the competition... outside of Apple. Everyone is stepping up. RIMM has a huge business following that doesnt need the fancy stuff. However, their fastest growing segment are the consumers... Thatʻs where the battle lines have been drawn.
I do expect a good earnings report... the guidance is always key (aka sales pitch).
Employment report also ahead... and i obviously hope it knocks around the Market... to benefit my puts.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
What Goes UP... Must...
Anyway, housing news 13 year low in new home sales. So, what else is new?
Apple is rumored to have 10 Mil G3 iPhone versions on order in Asia. Confident... And the story still is that Macs are selling. iPods seem to be getting some of its base moving over to iPhones.
As for my theoretical position FXP be hold
My real positions basically consist of V and a few puts out there... WFC, IWM, JPM, FXI, i cant remember the rest... but worth very little compared to V.
Apple is rumored to have 10 Mil G3 iPhone versions on order in Asia. Confident... And the story still is that Macs are selling. iPods seem to be getting some of its base moving over to iPhones.
As for my theoretical position FXP be hold
My real positions basically consist of V and a few puts out there... WFC, IWM, JPM, FXI, i cant remember the rest... but worth very little compared to V.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
From Here I will do a what if scenrio...
Yesterday, if i had the $ i would have bought an IWM April66put@90. It would have cashed out 150 at the open... on my 50% gain option rule...
I also said i would have bought some FXP pre-market... i would have gotten in @100 which would be negative right now... but we'll see how the day proceeds.
I might have also nipped at DHI puts, but i dont think it would be whacked hard enough.
So, the score:
IWM: winner
FXP: undecided red (so far)
V: who cares...it's a hold
I also said i would have bought some FXP pre-market... i would have gotten in @100 which would be negative right now... but we'll see how the day proceeds.
I might have also nipped at DHI puts, but i dont think it would be whacked hard enough.
So, the score:
IWM: winner
FXP: undecided red (so far)
V: who cares...it's a hold
Monday, March 24, 2008
Manipulations of the Street....
JPM raises its bid for BSC to $10. Glad i bought V instead of suffering through all the manipulating going on. So, they report a bid of $2 last week. knowing the market will drop... so hey, why not buy a bunch of puts/shorts before releasing that info to the public... $$$... so now that everyone was suckered why not change the bid to $10 (knowing the market will head higher), but buy some index calls and BSC calls prior to announcement. And hey there you go again...
Also existing home-sales were better than expected. So the homebuilders can cheer. New home sales are a different story. The thing is the Street is already expecting bad numbers... So, any good news keeps homebuilders in the green. But i think theyʻre a LONG short/put.
Anyway, i am glad i got V instead. Sure its down today... but this LONG is solid. So, i have no headaches in the market (so far)
So, if i had some extra cash what would i do? buy some FXP premarket tomorrow and set a stop... or an IWM Apr66put. As itʻs hit a Fib. Oh well, iʻll sit V. No headaches.... no rushing back in...
Lastly, reminder out there... RIMM April 2, GOOG April 17, AAPL April 23... The three horsemen, i could care less about AMZN (also Apr 23). I will be listing a more comprehensive list... So, there are your main stranggle dates.
Also existing home-sales were better than expected. So the homebuilders can cheer. New home sales are a different story. The thing is the Street is already expecting bad numbers... So, any good news keeps homebuilders in the green. But i think theyʻre a LONG short/put.
Anyway, i am glad i got V instead. Sure its down today... but this LONG is solid. So, i have no headaches in the market (so far)
So, if i had some extra cash what would i do? buy some FXP premarket tomorrow and set a stop... or an IWM Apr66put. As itʻs hit a Fib. Oh well, iʻll sit V. No headaches.... no rushing back in...
Lastly, reminder out there... RIMM April 2, GOOG April 17, AAPL April 23... The three horsemen, i could care less about AMZN (also Apr 23). I will be listing a more comprehensive list... So, there are your main stranggle dates.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Like I Said: "Bouncing Ball"
Wow what a day if you played a fade. It was tempting, but i figured V was ALOT less risky. I almost broke even last year. It all could have changed based on 2 bad trades. And this year I lost a few thou. So, itʻs time to go semi-conservative again... preservation to participate on the big day. Straight up stock...
So 400 points the previous day... So, left them puts in play. Guess what, all the Ag related puts i suffered holding will turn green tomorrow, they already broke even the day after that huge rally. HELLO!!! Itʻs a bear market.
You know this guy i know called Gio (who sometimes leaves remarks here), told me this thing he does...
On triple digit days...be a contrarian for the day. (Of course I add my addition, with a long trend on going bear), So if the Dow is up like yesterday, buy them cheap puts... he especially likes SKF & FXP. Very sensitive and volume friendly. Then when then Dow gets pounded, short the SKF/FXP. pretty simple huh. But itʻs easier to position to on a DOW triple green day... why HELLO!!! Itʻs a bear market.
Btw, V. Itʻs a LONG...LONG...LONG. It may take some time to make some $$$ with it. But hey, it doesnʻt expire like options. If anything, when the options start happening on V. Then buy a few insurance puts for V. Make money both ways.
Btw, you want a big date for a huge swing day in the next month? April 23. AAPL reports...
So 400 points the previous day... So, left them puts in play. Guess what, all the Ag related puts i suffered holding will turn green tomorrow, they already broke even the day after that huge rally. HELLO!!! Itʻs a bear market.
You know this guy i know called Gio (who sometimes leaves remarks here), told me this thing he does...
On triple digit days...be a contrarian for the day. (Of course I add my addition, with a long trend on going bear), So if the Dow is up like yesterday, buy them cheap puts... he especially likes SKF & FXP. Very sensitive and volume friendly. Then when then Dow gets pounded, short the SKF/FXP. pretty simple huh. But itʻs easier to position to on a DOW triple green day... why HELLO!!! Itʻs a bear market.
Btw, V. Itʻs a LONG...LONG...LONG. It may take some time to make some $$$ with it. But hey, it doesnʻt expire like options. If anything, when the options start happening on V. Then buy a few insurance puts for V. Make money both ways.
Btw, you want a big date for a huge swing day in the next month? April 23. AAPL reports...
Getting Rid of Some Guesswork
Bought a few shares of V. All based on the premise that MA is in the 200ʻs... and yet V opens in the 50ʻs. Pretty dumb not to get any shares even in a bear market. The V people were smart to move their IPO to this day with the increased likelihood of buyers around the time the FED cuts.
Anyway, still have some puts just sitting there. Worth just a few hundred... Not much to talk about there.
Bunch of earnings report that i failed to even look at.. ADBE, MS, etc. all moving up. But i dont think ADBE is as powerful as it used to be with a few cheaper versions that pretty much do what Photoshop does. MS is well...just another financial company, speaking of which - GS is so much better than the other financial institutions, they keep beating expectations.
Sony Ericsson warns of falling phone sales... yawn... i didnt even bother reading the article. Suffice it to say RIMM & AAPL will battle it out while the rest of the phone world plays catch-up
Well, V can just sit there... and now my portfolio is basically just that... V
Anyway, still have some puts just sitting there. Worth just a few hundred... Not much to talk about there.
Bunch of earnings report that i failed to even look at.. ADBE, MS, etc. all moving up. But i dont think ADBE is as powerful as it used to be with a few cheaper versions that pretty much do what Photoshop does. MS is well...just another financial company, speaking of which - GS is so much better than the other financial institutions, they keep beating expectations.
Sony Ericsson warns of falling phone sales... yawn... i didnt even bother reading the article. Suffice it to say RIMM & AAPL will battle it out while the rest of the phone world plays catch-up
Well, V can just sit there... and now my portfolio is basically just that... V
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
BTW, APPL....MARKETSHARE
FOR YEARS UPON YEARS... AAPL pundits - namely Windoze backers have cried out... "Apple is a niche company with a small market share...." Well the have you seen itʻs retail market share lately? So this doesnʻt count Appleʻs online sales or DELL & HPQ.
But itʻs stunning to say the least...
14% market share in February or 60% increase while the rest of the market period growth was 9%
$1 of every $4 spent on PCʻs in Feb was on an Apple... thatʻs a 67% increase YOY (Year over year) vs. 5% for the rest of the industry.
So, while Wall St looks at iPhones (which are really Macs themselves), the Mac universe grows against a terrible economy.
Anyway, todays expected rally added another $6 to AAPL to 132. I remember looking at those cheap calls when APPL was at $119 just over a week ago... But thatʻs my name "Stuck"trader... sickening...
Well, today has been educational... the rate cuts fire up the buying, if only a day... so hedge them puts with a few calls that move.
But itʻs stunning to say the least...
14% market share in February or 60% increase while the rest of the market period growth was 9%
$1 of every $4 spent on PCʻs in Feb was on an Apple... thatʻs a 67% increase YOY (Year over year) vs. 5% for the rest of the industry.
So, while Wall St looks at iPhones (which are really Macs themselves), the Mac universe grows against a terrible economy.
Anyway, todays expected rally added another $6 to AAPL to 132. I remember looking at those cheap calls when APPL was at $119 just over a week ago... But thatʻs my name "Stuck"trader... sickening...
Well, today has been educational... the rate cuts fire up the buying, if only a day... so hedge them puts with a few calls that move.
Follow the Bouncing Ball
Well, Gio has suggested for some time now to keep an eye on the VIX.
He also noted yesterday to position a few puts and a call hedge on GS earnings. Boy what a swing. I stupidly decided on not have a positioning IWM/JPM long puts at all on the Bear/JPM day.
What i SHOULD have done was add a call hedge using LEH or GS, which both carried equally DIRT CHEAP calls. against my long puts. But i assumed the market would slide downward at days end. Alas, yet another lost opportunity because of a wrong assumption.
Earnings carry such a swing these days that a strangle set cannot be ignored. The other missed opportunities iʻve experienced on both ends: FSLR, RIMM & MON calls while the market tanked. So, if iʻm going to throw some puts out there.. it doesnʻt hurt to buy a $10 hedge. After all i could win on both the hedge and the long put.
I wanted to buy cheap puts at todayʻs end if a rally ensued(which obviously did)... but my alarm was turned off by my wife... i am going to be sick if the market stinks it up tomorrow.
After all weʻre basically trading a bouncing ball... itʻll eventually go back down
He also noted yesterday to position a few puts and a call hedge on GS earnings. Boy what a swing. I stupidly decided on not have a positioning IWM/JPM long puts at all on the Bear/JPM day.
What i SHOULD have done was add a call hedge using LEH or GS, which both carried equally DIRT CHEAP calls. against my long puts. But i assumed the market would slide downward at days end. Alas, yet another lost opportunity because of a wrong assumption.
Earnings carry such a swing these days that a strangle set cannot be ignored. The other missed opportunities iʻve experienced on both ends: FSLR, RIMM & MON calls while the market tanked. So, if iʻm going to throw some puts out there.. it doesnʻt hurt to buy a $10 hedge. After all i could win on both the hedge and the long put.
I wanted to buy cheap puts at todayʻs end if a rally ensued(which obviously did)... but my alarm was turned off by my wife... i am going to be sick if the market stinks it up tomorrow.
After all weʻre basically trading a bouncing ball... itʻll eventually go back down
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Unheard of... JPM/BSC/ The Fed
I am TOTALLY sick for having sold my JPM & IWM puts last week. Congrats to all the SKF longs/calls.
I really don't know how this will play out. The FED also cut the rate by another .25 and promised to send even more money to bail out these rich dudes who are in essence fleecing the honest hard working people like us...
I hope the market crashes the way Asia and so far Europe at the time of this post. But knowing how things work... the small guys like me get smacked again.
btw, WFC is my only finance related stock left on my table. NOw that is sad...
PANIC PANIC PANIC is indeed back...
I really don't know how this will play out. The FED also cut the rate by another .25 and promised to send even more money to bail out these rich dudes who are in essence fleecing the honest hard working people like us...
I hope the market crashes the way Asia and so far Europe at the time of this post. But knowing how things work... the small guys like me get smacked again.
btw, WFC is my only finance related stock left on my table. NOw that is sad...
PANIC PANIC PANIC is indeed back...
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Somethinʻs Up.
Well the market bounced off the bottom at the type of this blog. And as usual i failed to wake up or set my sell in the morning. BUT i do think we have somethinʻ up (rather down) in the near future... namely after the FED talks again. They are basically showing their hand. Interest rates have nowhere to go once we reach zero.
and this thing with the homebuilders going up... unbelievable...
Iʻve already lost more $ this month because my DHI, IWM puts not selling out accordingly to plan. Undisciplined... sigh... Otherwise i happily sit in cash (whatʻs left of it).
and this thing with the homebuilders going up... unbelievable...
Iʻve already lost more $ this month because my DHI, IWM puts not selling out accordingly to plan. Undisciplined... sigh... Otherwise i happily sit in cash (whatʻs left of it).
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Minimizing Losses
Made the mistake of holding on another day with my puts, namely: DHI, WFC, IWM. The book i read last month stated: "Be quick to sell a loss." Well, it seems that it gets somewhat confusing when dealing in a bear market, and going with a down trend. Yet, that phrase kept whispering in my ear yesterday. Gotta listen to it.
I am not sad about my AGU/POT puts that i added yesterday, since they were so small and outa range, but set up for a $ if the market continued to sink. I will in fact add IWM puts after the FED cut rates again. There is no way for Ben to keep the U.S. from recession.
Oh, lastly... thereʻs this dude... Gio. He shared what he was doing a week or 2 ago. Short when the Dow is up triple and Long when the down triple. Wouldʻve worked yet again... i may do just that, but will wait patiently.
I am not sad about my AGU/POT puts that i added yesterday, since they were so small and outa range, but set up for a $ if the market continued to sink. I will in fact add IWM puts after the FED cut rates again. There is no way for Ben to keep the U.S. from recession.
Oh, lastly... thereʻs this dude... Gio. He shared what he was doing a week or 2 ago. Short when the Dow is up triple and Long when the down triple. Wouldʻve worked yet again... i may do just that, but will wait patiently.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Wish I Woke Up Early... Early Bird get paid...
Trading in Hawaii is mostly a disadvantage. Altho, you can start your day early with trades and still get a lot of other stuff done later in the day.
What a sell-off... AND what a run on gas... i kept saying to myself last week, " i should buy some USO..."
Anyway, WISH I WOKE UP EARLY!!! and bought puts in those Ags. I would have had a REALLY nice day today. In any case i bought a put each in POT & AGU (iʻm too poor to do more), as opposed to MON... i finally let the bid price come to me and am sitting in the positive. oh wow, itʻs only after the fact that i noticed that POT/AGU(as well as MOS) touched or fell through their 50 day EMA today. Weʻll see if it continues tomorrow, i dont expect anything anymore.
Solars got a whacking today as well... i think the FED opens their mouth this week. but at this point i dont think any rate cut will start a more than a temporary rally if at all.
What a sell-off... AND what a run on gas... i kept saying to myself last week, " i should buy some USO..."
Anyway, WISH I WOKE UP EARLY!!! and bought puts in those Ags. I would have had a REALLY nice day today. In any case i bought a put each in POT & AGU (iʻm too poor to do more), as opposed to MON... i finally let the bid price come to me and am sitting in the positive. oh wow, itʻs only after the fact that i noticed that POT/AGU(as well as MOS) touched or fell through their 50 day EMA today. Weʻll see if it continues tomorrow, i dont expect anything anymore.
Solars got a whacking today as well... i think the FED opens their mouth this week. but at this point i dont think any rate cut will start a more than a temporary rally if at all.
Sunday, March 9, 2008
Ag... Are They Immune?
MON, MOS, POT, AGU, TRA... They are all still relatively near their 52 wk/all-time highs. Will they be shot down? Donʻt know... But boy thereʻs a great reward if that was to happen
I just saw a documentary on foods/seeds that are genetically engineered. And the companies behind them... What they do to the farmers are incredible. Like a mafia. Iʻve heard of MON pushing around farmers before. Even in Hawaii. So, do i feel bad if i have a chance to short or buy puts? NOPE.
I just saw a documentary on foods/seeds that are genetically engineered. And the companies behind them... What they do to the farmers are incredible. Like a mafia. Iʻve heard of MON pushing around farmers before. Even in Hawaii. So, do i feel bad if i have a chance to short or buy puts? NOPE.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
LOOK OUT RIMM/Andriod
Just saw some info on iPhone SDK/Enterprise.
Apple has instantly opened up the potential of their customer base outside of the consumer world...
RIMM has got some huge competition coming right at itʻs Enterprise biz. Interestingly Appleʻs use of Microsoft ActiveSync (ironic) eliminates the need for Blackberryʻs NOS system - i.e. data middleman - to get into the coorporate world.
The SDK demo was interesting in which 1 or 2 software engineers from 5 dif companies flew to Apple to create from scratch, new apps for the iPhone/iPod Touch in less than 2 weeks, some of them never have coded for the mac, and in this case were completely blind as to what tools were available to help them build these apps. I must say the games are cools. Itʻs like Nintendo meets iPhone.
Speaking of another Mobile Phone platform: Android... is still some time way from maturity... especially because itʻs made of a bunch of company backers, there could be problems streamlining features. The thing is right now they have a huge bug that allows hackers to control your phone. no doubt that will be fixed. But itʻs apparent that Apple has a huge lead in providing a platform for software developers. Now i am obviously not one of them...
Apple has also created a way for developers to make their apps available to all iPhone/iPod touch users, with little or no additional work on their part. Itʻs like an iTunes, but for software = $$$$$
In the end... the future regarding all of this and those involved are dynamic. so, many things can change. But AAPL stock will have my attention come late November... when many of these Apps will be in play and ready for AAPLʻs newest customer, Enterprise... Oh, and any iPhone deal in China...
Apple has instantly opened up the potential of their customer base outside of the consumer world...
RIMM has got some huge competition coming right at itʻs Enterprise biz. Interestingly Appleʻs use of Microsoft ActiveSync (ironic) eliminates the need for Blackberryʻs NOS system - i.e. data middleman - to get into the coorporate world.
The SDK demo was interesting in which 1 or 2 software engineers from 5 dif companies flew to Apple to create from scratch, new apps for the iPhone/iPod Touch in less than 2 weeks, some of them never have coded for the mac, and in this case were completely blind as to what tools were available to help them build these apps. I must say the games are cools. Itʻs like Nintendo meets iPhone.
Speaking of another Mobile Phone platform: Android... is still some time way from maturity... especially because itʻs made of a bunch of company backers, there could be problems streamlining features. The thing is right now they have a huge bug that allows hackers to control your phone. no doubt that will be fixed. But itʻs apparent that Apple has a huge lead in providing a platform for software developers. Now i am obviously not one of them...
Apple has also created a way for developers to make their apps available to all iPhone/iPod touch users, with little or no additional work on their part. Itʻs like an iTunes, but for software = $$$$$
In the end... the future regarding all of this and those involved are dynamic. so, many things can change. But AAPL stock will have my attention come late November... when many of these Apps will be in play and ready for AAPLʻs newest customer, Enterprise... Oh, and any iPhone deal in China...
Itʻs Already Thursday...
Patience... AEO pays handsomely today... to bad i didnʻt sell before the market closed...
DHI, IWM, WFC, JPM... All made moves lower... so Friday will give me an opportunity to close out some BAD puts and sell a winner or two.
In any case... my year still stinks... i am trying to be patient with my positions, while not buying a bunch of different puts on securities that may very well go sideways. killing bulls AND bears.
i still have a bunch of loser puts that have little or no interest buyers: BDK, WYNN(too far out).
No time to celebrate...
There is a chance for a rally next week with another rate cut coming. but just maybe, the Street has wised up and stop wasting our time with that logic. let the market correct itself...
DHI, IWM, WFC, JPM... All made moves lower... so Friday will give me an opportunity to close out some BAD puts and sell a winner or two.
In any case... my year still stinks... i am trying to be patient with my positions, while not buying a bunch of different puts on securities that may very well go sideways. killing bulls AND bears.
i still have a bunch of loser puts that have little or no interest buyers: BDK, WYNN(too far out).
No time to celebrate...
There is a chance for a rally next week with another rate cut coming. but just maybe, the Street has wised up and stop wasting our time with that logic. let the market correct itself...
Monday, March 3, 2008
FOUR HORSEMEN...
All winners if you played both the bull & bear. Anyone of us could have been millionaires just trading one of these. itʻs a matter of timing and gut, while getting emotion/panic out of the way.
AMZN. i was too impatient in placing my last put. i will wait for the FED to prop them up a bit. it may be too late for me to get back in. the last earnings it shot up to 80s.
AAPL. made money both up and down. no complaints except my stubborness on MacWorld calls
GOOG. never attempted a put. too expensive... but used to make some $$$ when it nearly touched my 750call... well, i missed switching to puts and there you have it...
RIMM. they always seem to beat earnings & guidance. i sat out the last Q, even tho my gut said stick with them. another lost opportunity.
I am currently looking for anything at new highs... including inverse ETFs. the fringes swing quickly.
AMZN. i was too impatient in placing my last put. i will wait for the FED to prop them up a bit. it may be too late for me to get back in. the last earnings it shot up to 80s.
AAPL. made money both up and down. no complaints except my stubborness on MacWorld calls
GOOG. never attempted a put. too expensive... but used to make some $$$ when it nearly touched my 750call... well, i missed switching to puts and there you have it...
RIMM. they always seem to beat earnings & guidance. i sat out the last Q, even tho my gut said stick with them. another lost opportunity.
I am currently looking for anything at new highs... including inverse ETFs. the fringes swing quickly.
Sold TOO soon. Yet...
AAPL broke itʻs support @ 119. There is no doubt this thing will has nowhere to go but down. i thought it would hold right here. Gio mentioned to me it could head to <100. I will be putting another order in at the end of the day.
SOLD! AAPL puts...
150% PROFIT. Sheez (basically to lessen some bad trades i didnt pay attention to). I may jump back in at the end of the session... next week has another rate cut talk coming so i am unsure about any put buying at this point. i will let a rally happen prior to FED talk and maybe do a strangle.
Holding DHI puts for pending home sales March 6...
Otherwise no buys. I have a number of bad puts to chop off... unfortunately no buyers.
I need to save some dough for a nice trip in 2009.
Holding DHI puts for pending home sales March 6...
Otherwise no buys. I have a number of bad puts to chop off... unfortunately no buyers.
I need to save some dough for a nice trip in 2009.
Friday, February 29, 2008
OUT OF THE LOOP...or Forgetful...
Props to my man Gio. "Surgeon" he says. I am most impressed with his LONG on JRJC. While playing SKF. Bummer for me, i didnt know there were options out there for SKF. I must say, he informed me of a couple trades. Winners.
My CHDX sell stop went off. kind of a bummer. but it was a successful disciplined trade.
DELL stinks. I knew that much, but as for the stock. Too unpredictable. I so wanted to buy puts the other day...
My meager option put in AAPL garnered 86%. But i didnt sell it. Letʻs just say weʻre in for some punishing news next week. The following week however will have the FED written all over it.
puts in play: DHI, IWM, AAPL, AEO, WYNN, FXI, BDK, WFC, JPM.... Too many... i am looking to cut my loses next week.
if thereʻs one thing i am looking at is USO movements. Iʻve completely forgotten about it. Thereʻs a construction/housing related ETF out there. anyone know itʻs ticker?
My CHDX sell stop went off. kind of a bummer. but it was a successful disciplined trade.
DELL stinks. I knew that much, but as for the stock. Too unpredictable. I so wanted to buy puts the other day...
My meager option put in AAPL garnered 86%. But i didnt sell it. Letʻs just say weʻre in for some punishing news next week. The following week however will have the FED written all over it.
puts in play: DHI, IWM, AAPL, AEO, WYNN, FXI, BDK, WFC, JPM.... Too many... i am looking to cut my loses next week.
if thereʻs one thing i am looking at is USO movements. Iʻve completely forgotten about it. Thereʻs a construction/housing related ETF out there. anyone know itʻs ticker?
Hindsight
I am a hind... for not shorting/putting AAPL MORE... There was no way THIS RALLY was going to continue. I think it does look good going into April, but i wouldnt touch it on the long side til fall... after we see how the next 2 quarters go.
I have been waiting for bad news to knock some sense (red). I still have a few puts
DHI is finally coming to its senses. and construction report is on monday. i will have to sell this loser at the time.
WFC is finally coming back down.
AEO is getting a nice butt kicking too.
Oh, and Visa... it will be a fun IPO to watch.
I have been waiting for bad news to knock some sense (red). I still have a few puts
DHI is finally coming to its senses. and construction report is on monday. i will have to sell this loser at the time.
WFC is finally coming back down.
AEO is getting a nice butt kicking too.
Oh, and Visa... it will be a fun IPO to watch.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
HD...Not the TV... And Avoiding Confusion
As expected... HD earnings stunk, altho at the time of this post it's just pre-market. Do I regret not listing them on my earnings list? Sure. Do i regret not getting some cheap puts? Sure. Do I think I would have lost money elsewhere to negate any gain in HD puts? Sure. And there you have it. I am unsure of anything until something dramatic happens.
All the pro's are confused. So, how much more so am I. Sticking to mostly cash at this point is most prudent. Patience will usually be rewarded. A few more eco news on the way today... and we shall see if we get another psuedo-bottom-hope rally or another "nice" fall.
Gio: I don't even bother checking out Fly or Tim. Rarely do i check Stockbee as well. btw, Stockbee thinks a solid bottom is starting to be formed and sees dramatic sell offs behind us.
I myself will let the market speak for itself, i know i cant outwitt the market consistently enough. Anyway, there are still a number of overpriced stocks out there. But the leader stocks are all "broken" for now and thus the indexes have somewhat stablilized with a gradual trend down rather than dramatic falls.
All the pro's are confused. So, how much more so am I. Sticking to mostly cash at this point is most prudent. Patience will usually be rewarded. A few more eco news on the way today... and we shall see if we get another psuedo-bottom-hope rally or another "nice" fall.
Gio: I don't even bother checking out Fly or Tim. Rarely do i check Stockbee as well. btw, Stockbee thinks a solid bottom is starting to be formed and sees dramatic sell offs behind us.
I myself will let the market speak for itself, i know i cant outwitt the market consistently enough. Anyway, there are still a number of overpriced stocks out there. But the leader stocks are all "broken" for now and thus the indexes have somewhat stablilized with a gradual trend down rather than dramatic falls.
Monday, February 25, 2008
(V)ISA
Sure the market stinks. But do you think people will stop using their credit cards? NO WAY! They have so many ways of making money... Terminals, Transactions, Finance charge, Late Fees, etc... all in multiple countries. (more than MasterCard).
Of course, i am in no rush to buy V. But i do think they are a definite buy - eventually.
I am looking at this week with a lot of volatility. The market seems to be ignoring more bad times ahead. Anyway, I am keeping my DHI puts.
CHDX may actually stop out on me. good thing it was a test buy. not a big play at all.
Of course, i am in no rush to buy V. But i do think they are a definite buy - eventually.
I am looking at this week with a lot of volatility. The market seems to be ignoring more bad times ahead. Anyway, I am keeping my DHI puts.
CHDX may actually stop out on me. good thing it was a test buy. not a big play at all.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Predictable...
Well RIMM was up yesterday... of course the first thing i thought to do was to buy puts. And sure enough i check out a screen and itʻs down with the rest of the street with Eco data fears next week. The company is fine, but the stock is considered anything but a sure thing.
AAPL broke below 120. It is one messed up stock. The company is on fire, mind you, but that doesnt matter to the street. Its all about future expectations. I actually hope it dips below 100. That would be the pretty considerable level for me to jump back in. I think they should drop the whole exclusive deal when they deal with Asia. A smaller piece of the monthly from more carriers will ensure they get some if not all of the padded revenue. I mean, the carriers KNOW what handsets are on their systems and can charge accordingly.
my portfolios since the beginning of the year started have lost 60%. Terrible management. The losses incurred from TWO really bad trades, and a failure to sell the loss quickly, while missing some spot on trades(i happened to be away for one of them). Its sad that i tend to hold on so long to losers. The lesson has indeed been impressed upon me recently on having read a couple books. Sometimes i need to SEE IT IN WRITING.
Most of my portfolio are again in cash... The thing is my portfolios are so weak that i cant even afford some of the cheapest contracts. i am tempted to just pull the whole thing out. Thereʻs a investment broker out there that is offering miles in exchange for a new account. Maybe that is the surest investment for me at this point.
PUTS still in play.... *sigh*
IWM, DHI, AEO, WFC, DECK, WYNN, BDK, FXI(Long put).
ANYWAY, ENOUGH RANTING...
AAPL broke below 120. It is one messed up stock. The company is on fire, mind you, but that doesnt matter to the street. Its all about future expectations. I actually hope it dips below 100. That would be the pretty considerable level for me to jump back in. I think they should drop the whole exclusive deal when they deal with Asia. A smaller piece of the monthly from more carriers will ensure they get some if not all of the padded revenue. I mean, the carriers KNOW what handsets are on their systems and can charge accordingly.
my portfolios since the beginning of the year started have lost 60%. Terrible management. The losses incurred from TWO really bad trades, and a failure to sell the loss quickly, while missing some spot on trades(i happened to be away for one of them). Its sad that i tend to hold on so long to losers. The lesson has indeed been impressed upon me recently on having read a couple books. Sometimes i need to SEE IT IN WRITING.
Most of my portfolio are again in cash... The thing is my portfolios are so weak that i cant even afford some of the cheapest contracts. i am tempted to just pull the whole thing out. Thereʻs a investment broker out there that is offering miles in exchange for a new account. Maybe that is the surest investment for me at this point.
PUTS still in play.... *sigh*
IWM, DHI, AEO, WFC, DECK, WYNN, BDK, FXI(Long put).
ANYWAY, ENOUGH RANTING...
Thursday, February 21, 2008
RIMM... If it aint broken...
Well, looks like their model is indeed working. Apple could take a lesson in maximizing subscription numbers by allowing multiple carriers instead of exclusive ones. I hated that deal from the beginning, being that the iPhone is on a different carrier.
But as all things go. Itʻs a bear market. unless this stock finds a base @120. i am not buying. but itʻs definitely encouraging for the consumer market... as this is where all the new subscribers are coming from. And the kicker is, if the touchscreen Blackberry is in the works, then you have something huge in a real media phone to battle iPhone. But for now, they are in no rush. They are competing primarily with PALM, MOT, Windows based Phones.
But as all things go. Itʻs a bear market. unless this stock finds a base @120. i am not buying. but itʻs definitely encouraging for the consumer market... as this is where all the new subscribers are coming from. And the kicker is, if the touchscreen Blackberry is in the works, then you have something huge in a real media phone to battle iPhone. But for now, they are in no rush. They are competing primarily with PALM, MOT, Windows based Phones.
Sell the Loser
Well, GRMN didnʻt work out at all. At least itʻs down today to cut my Put loss. Sold both options, too early? maybe. But better than a fat zero as i have been too guilty of allowing.
Funny though. I listed NTRI & WFMI as potential puts. but i go and pick the wrong one. Some things dont change.
I updated my earnings list... if anyone cares. But Really, there wont be any HUGE things to trade for some time.
Earnings season is thankfully dying down.
Funny though. I listed NTRI & WFMI as potential puts. but i go and pick the wrong one. Some things dont change.
I updated my earnings list... if anyone cares. But Really, there wont be any HUGE things to trade for some time.
Earnings season is thankfully dying down.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
CHDX... GRMN... and stuff
Last week i bought a measly position in CHDX. it seems to have formed a new base while i was away.
GRMN. Bot a couple of puts at the 50 strike. If they miss Q, then they go down, if they miss guidance itʻs a toss-up. Regardless i am getting out tomorrow.
HPQ. I think they will meet Q, but miss guidance, but it seems that panic doesnt seem to follow Tech these days.
Whole Foods is an interesting play. Organic/Non-processed foods are ironically more expensive. Thatʻs not good for Whole Foods or the general public. Alas, i am too weak to touch this. But tomorrows blog might show my disappointed if i miss.
NTRI. so do we have enough Fat people to give them business? Yes. However, the competition is all over the place. So, me no touchy.
I am going to look at IWM as the pure trade. itʻs going sideways, why not straddle and make some coin both ways. weʻll see.
GRMN. Bot a couple of puts at the 50 strike. If they miss Q, then they go down, if they miss guidance itʻs a toss-up. Regardless i am getting out tomorrow.
HPQ. I think they will meet Q, but miss guidance, but it seems that panic doesnt seem to follow Tech these days.
Whole Foods is an interesting play. Organic/Non-processed foods are ironically more expensive. Thatʻs not good for Whole Foods or the general public. Alas, i am too weak to touch this. But tomorrows blog might show my disappointed if i miss.
NTRI. so do we have enough Fat people to give them business? Yes. However, the competition is all over the place. So, me no touchy.
I am going to look at IWM as the pure trade. itʻs going sideways, why not straddle and make some coin both ways. weʻll see.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Back To Watching
Well, i couldnʻt trade a thing on while i was on my trip. And watched 2 winners go without my participating: FSLR, AMAT. I kinda wish i was still on vacation so i wouldnt be sick looking at another lost opportunity. but the good news is theres alot more opportunities ahead.
Anyway, i am retooling my brain. this market is designed to take money away from you. having accepted that, i am working on my patience. i may very well not trade until April to see if i have any discipline. Then again earnings season is not quite over yet.
the surprise consumer spending will be working against my retail related puts. If Bush does sign that rebate thing, *please*, then that only will spur more irresponsible spending. so, i will see if my stops come into play there. otherwise my portfolio B is a wasteland.
congrats to the Solars buyers. let me know when thereʻs a good short there. but thats a tough as well, maybe just short the stock rather than puts. there isnt much bad news left that will affect solars. they will still kick butt. in essence i think the safe play is PBW.
My new favorite CHDX needs to do a few things before i buy. but its a nice play with the kind of market we are dealing with.
Anyway, i am retooling my brain. this market is designed to take money away from you. having accepted that, i am working on my patience. i may very well not trade until April to see if i have any discipline. Then again earnings season is not quite over yet.
the surprise consumer spending will be working against my retail related puts. If Bush does sign that rebate thing, *please*, then that only will spur more irresponsible spending. so, i will see if my stops come into play there. otherwise my portfolio B is a wasteland.
congrats to the Solars buyers. let me know when thereʻs a good short there. but thats a tough as well, maybe just short the stock rather than puts. there isnt much bad news left that will affect solars. they will still kick butt. in essence i think the safe play is PBW.
My new favorite CHDX needs to do a few things before i buy. but its a nice play with the kind of market we are dealing with.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
OH OH...BOT MORE PUTS
DHI Mar12.5put WYNN Mar70put(undercut the bid...cheap). I know i am going against a couple things found in a book i am reading.
I couldnt quite pull the trigger on FSLR. Gio called a fade today in solars. and it did happen. i think theyʻll report a blowout Q, so a strangggggggle may be in order.
Earnings season is winding down. Hope broad worry happens again...
I couldnt quite pull the trigger on FSLR. Gio called a fade today in solars. and it did happen. i think theyʻll report a blowout Q, so a strangggggggle may be in order.
Earnings season is winding down. Hope broad worry happens again...
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
LVS Earnings. A Gift for the bears
I slept through a 3% down day... My pathetic puts may again rise...
OK, itʻs weird to have all these vacation/travel related stocks go up. i know itʻs based on earnings, but the future is bleak for this sector. Regardless, LVS reported a loss that was LESS than expected because of the $ flowing in on its China casinos (covering up the U.S. loss). Well, i consider this a gift. I am in no rush mind you to buy more puts. However, the long term puts just got cheaper. so, i hope for a follow through upward near the high 90ʻs to 100 for a nice entry. Ditto for WYNN.
Starwood on the other hand has broken past its 50 day EMA. $53 is about where i will get some long puts. if i still have $.
I bought AEO puts last week, one of the few trades that made sense. The action today portends a fall below the 50day EMA based on the candlestick. if a could only hope...
My portfolios lack a substantial amount of index puts( one each in FXI, IWM)... i have very little and failed to benefit from todays fall. FXP will be all over the place. China has inflation concerns and the worst winter in years is hampering their economy. It sure doesnt help in their preparations for the Olympics.
OK, itʻs weird to have all these vacation/travel related stocks go up. i know itʻs based on earnings, but the future is bleak for this sector. Regardless, LVS reported a loss that was LESS than expected because of the $ flowing in on its China casinos (covering up the U.S. loss). Well, i consider this a gift. I am in no rush mind you to buy more puts. However, the long term puts just got cheaper. so, i hope for a follow through upward near the high 90ʻs to 100 for a nice entry. Ditto for WYNN.
Starwood on the other hand has broken past its 50 day EMA. $53 is about where i will get some long puts. if i still have $.
I bought AEO puts last week, one of the few trades that made sense. The action today portends a fall below the 50day EMA based on the candlestick. if a could only hope...
My portfolios lack a substantial amount of index puts( one each in FXI, IWM)... i have very little and failed to benefit from todays fall. FXP will be all over the place. China has inflation concerns and the worst winter in years is hampering their economy. It sure doesnt help in their preparations for the Olympics.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Listing Updated... Health may be the place to be...
Bee listed a couple of interesting stocks this past friday. GFA & SMTS... builder and health related.
Speaking of healthcare, its the one industry that is immune to a recession...
Personally i find CHDX interesting. Technically, it has formed a nice base @30... but volume low...
Everywhere has health care needs. It is so expensive to care for people that China made medical equipment will be taken under consideration. watching for accumulation.
gio listed GU. nice day for that stock today...
Yahoo... Can of worms rumors regarding buyers: AAPL, MSFT, Newscorp.
Even Google is offering to help just to keep them from succumbing to microsoft.
MSFT + YHOO = Uh, just a bigger opponent to face GOOG.
Newscorp + YHOO = TimeWarner + AOL
AAPL + YHOO = ? ... the existing email base could give AAPL a bigger pie and a nice base to advertise iPhones/Macs/iPods, but i think Jobs would give less things away for free. It would be a way for AAPL to leverage against GOOG having thoughts of mobile phone dominance... in that case AAPL would have a porthole with marketing might. In the end, I donʻt think AAPL should get involved.... for now
Speaking of healthcare, its the one industry that is immune to a recession...
Personally i find CHDX interesting. Technically, it has formed a nice base @30... but volume low...
Everywhere has health care needs. It is so expensive to care for people that China made medical equipment will be taken under consideration. watching for accumulation.
gio listed GU. nice day for that stock today...
Yahoo... Can of worms rumors regarding buyers: AAPL, MSFT, Newscorp.
Even Google is offering to help just to keep them from succumbing to microsoft.
MSFT + YHOO = Uh, just a bigger opponent to face GOOG.
Newscorp + YHOO = TimeWarner + AOL
AAPL + YHOO = ? ... the existing email base could give AAPL a bigger pie and a nice base to advertise iPhones/Macs/iPods, but i think Jobs would give less things away for free. It would be a way for AAPL to leverage against GOOG having thoughts of mobile phone dominance... in that case AAPL would have a porthole with marketing might. In the end, I donʻt think AAPL should get involved.... for now
Friday, February 1, 2008
HOLDING PATTERN...
Itʻs like the bears keep waiting for the sky to fall, then out of the blue ONE solid piece of bullish news keeps the market in the green. MSFT + YHOO DEAL. PULEEEEZ...
i will not touch a thing. i lost enough the other day... i have TOO many puts in play.
As for the market... it deserves to fall hard... AND it will. but bullish news of ANY degree is what the bulls are clinging to.
I will officially forward ALL MY YHOO email messages to my GMAIL account. enough said...
i will not touch a thing. i lost enough the other day... i have TOO many puts in play.
As for the market... it deserves to fall hard... AND it will. but bullish news of ANY degree is what the bulls are clinging to.
I will officially forward ALL MY YHOO email messages to my GMAIL account. enough said...
Thursday, January 31, 2008
GOOG and MOT
So it seems no company can be the bull the bucks the trend in Tech/Internet related stocks. altho, AMZN posted a gain. The question tomorrow is how will the Nasdaq react. I wished i got in on some index puts. but i couldnt stay by my laptop til the market closed. i really thought they would beat the street.
MOT got handed some smack from RIMM & AAPL handsets. DELL is behind the curve, but its a smart move on their part, as computing goes mobile. They will undoubtedly plug into Googleʻs mobile open source OS. Time will tell how quickly DELL can implement a mobile strategy. MSFT seems to be the ultimate loser in the Mobile OS wars (PALM included).
Back to stocks... COH, AEO were unwise trades. In fact, my Portfolio B (which didnʻt move til MacWorld), is at an all-time low. While my Portfolio A has been managed far better... risk wise. The financials and retail have killed my portfolios. The very sectors that deserve to crash... and they deserve to be taken to task for their irresponsible greed.
So, i will end this post by saying that i have broken one of the main rules in trading in a bear market (itʻs in one of the books i am reading). Limit trades to absolutes - high percentage trades. I have gotten a little carried away of late in plugging puts, when the market has been flat to a slight bounce. There is no question as to the years end being lower than the beginning. I am unsure how long we will be in this consolidation.
MOT got handed some smack from RIMM & AAPL handsets. DELL is behind the curve, but its a smart move on their part, as computing goes mobile. They will undoubtedly plug into Googleʻs mobile open source OS. Time will tell how quickly DELL can implement a mobile strategy. MSFT seems to be the ultimate loser in the Mobile OS wars (PALM included).
Back to stocks... COH, AEO were unwise trades. In fact, my Portfolio B (which didnʻt move til MacWorld), is at an all-time low. While my Portfolio A has been managed far better... risk wise. The financials and retail have killed my portfolios. The very sectors that deserve to crash... and they deserve to be taken to task for their irresponsible greed.
So, i will end this post by saying that i have broken one of the main rules in trading in a bear market (itʻs in one of the books i am reading). Limit trades to absolutes - high percentage trades. I have gotten a little carried away of late in plugging puts, when the market has been flat to a slight bounce. There is no question as to the years end being lower than the beginning. I am unsure how long we will be in this consolidation.
GOOG and MOT
So it seems no company can be the bull the bucks the trend in Tech/Internet related stocks. altho, AMZN posted a gain. The question tomorrow is how will the Nasdaq react. I wished i got in on some index puts. but i couldnt stay by my laptop til the market closed. i really thought they would beat the street.
MOT got handed some smack from RIMM & AAPL handsets. DELL is behind the curve, but its a smart move on their part, as computing goes mobile. They will undoubtedly plug into Googleʻs mobile open source OS. Time will tell how quickly DELL can implement a mobile strategy. MSFT seems to be the ultimate loser in the Mobile OS wars (PALM included).
Back to stocks... COH, AEO were unwise trades. In fact, my Portfolio B (which didnʻt move til MacWorld), is at an all-time low. While my Portfolio A has been managed far better... risk wise. The financials and retail have killed my portfolios. The very sectors that deserve to crash... and they deserve to be taken to task for their irresponsible greed.
So, i will end this post by saying that i have broken one of the main rules in trading in a bear market (itʻs in one of the books i am reading). Limit trades to absolutes - high percentage trades. I have gotten a little carried away of late in plugging puts, when the market has been flat to a slight bounce. There is no question as to the years end being lower than the beginning.
MOT got handed some smack from RIMM & AAPL handsets. DELL is behind the curve, but its a smart move on their part, as computing goes mobile. They will undoubtedly plug into Googleʻs mobile open source OS. Time will tell how quickly DELL can implement a mobile strategy. MSFT seems to be the ultimate loser in the Mobile OS wars (PALM included).
Back to stocks... COH, AEO were unwise trades. In fact, my Portfolio B (which didnʻt move til MacWorld), is at an all-time low. While my Portfolio A has been managed far better... risk wise. The financials and retail have killed my portfolios. The very sectors that deserve to crash... and they deserve to be taken to task for their irresponsible greed.
So, i will end this post by saying that i have broken one of the main rules in trading in a bear market (itʻs in one of the books i am reading). Limit trades to absolutes - high percentage trades. I have gotten a little carried away of late in plugging puts, when the market has been flat to a slight bounce. There is no question as to the years end being lower than the beginning.
Risk Failure Management
The win was not getting HOT puts. The loss, holding onto AMZN... i told myself to sell at the open. The only thing on my side are Eco news to send it back down. Short covering obviously taking hold as well. I await GOOG earnings. A possible position their is BIDU puts tomorrow... if GOOG goes green, which i think they will. GOOG calls are too expensive.
I will do myself a favor and lie in wait. LVS puts can wait. Recession hasnʻt fully hit. But i know of people losing half if not all their hours in the hotel biz.
I will do myself a favor and lie in wait. LVS puts can wait. Recession hasnʻt fully hit. But i know of people losing half if not all their hours in the hotel biz.
PREDICTION FULFILLED...
The rumor is that AMZN has an unannouced stock buy back... totally irritating...
It opened at the low of the day and indeed cut its loss. The premarket buying pretty much sealed the deal. I have no choice but to hold soon to be expired contracts into tomorrows eco news. hopefully the news is bad enough to take the broad market lower, but especially tech. so, obviously i am hoping GOOG gets shot down (altho my gut feeling is it head higher).
MA kicking butt like every Q earnings. go check it out... anyway, it blasted past its 50day EMA. Being a Bear, I may try to get Apr 160 puts at days end if i get my price.
I did buy COH Feb 27.5 put. Strictly bot on the chart as its bouncing of resistance:
I also bought AEO Mar 20 put (Gio mentioned YESTERDAY)... i am late and the candlestick may seem contrary, but i think i sinks lower tomorrow.
It opened at the low of the day and indeed cut its loss. The premarket buying pretty much sealed the deal. I have no choice but to hold soon to be expired contracts into tomorrows eco news. hopefully the news is bad enough to take the broad market lower, but especially tech. so, obviously i am hoping GOOG gets shot down (altho my gut feeling is it head higher).
MA kicking butt like every Q earnings. go check it out... anyway, it blasted past its 50day EMA. Being a Bear, I may try to get Apr 160 puts at days end if i get my price.
I did buy COH Feb 27.5 put. Strictly bot on the chart as its bouncing of resistance:
I also bought AEO Mar 20 put (Gio mentioned YESTERDAY)... i am late and the candlestick may seem contrary, but i think i sinks lower tomorrow.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
AMZN...And More
Thursday... AMZN i think will open at itʻs lowest of the day. So, i am selling my puts ASAP. i may dip back in at the close, but i think itʻs best to get the profits.
I think i am too late to catch HOT. Although, maybe i have a indirect position going with WYNN & LVS, as the HOT guidance is read. all i know is that no more vacationers that live off credit.
Speaking of which MA reports tomorrow. itʻs a toss up for me. i already am holding AXP. which didnʻt move much, but with the FED outa the way. we might move lower as other companies repeat their mantra "potential economic pressure" on earnings this year.
The big one to watch is GOOG. They are basically ad-based. So, i think they meet... i may do an option strangle. but it would be an expensive endeavor.
"Fun" Friday has a bunch of Eco news that can wipe any positive earnings for the day... so, pick your high flyer... i am thinking financials, or specific overpriced stocks (in my opinion): CMG, LVS, SHLD. unemployment numbers are a strong gauge for the economy.
I think i am too late to catch HOT. Although, maybe i have a indirect position going with WYNN & LVS, as the HOT guidance is read. all i know is that no more vacationers that live off credit.
Speaking of which MA reports tomorrow. itʻs a toss up for me. i already am holding AXP. which didnʻt move much, but with the FED outa the way. we might move lower as other companies repeat their mantra "potential economic pressure" on earnings this year.
The big one to watch is GOOG. They are basically ad-based. So, i think they meet... i may do an option strangle. but it would be an expensive endeavor.
"Fun" Friday has a bunch of Eco news that can wipe any positive earnings for the day... so, pick your high flyer... i am thinking financials, or specific overpriced stocks (in my opinion): CMG, LVS, SHLD. unemployment numbers are a strong gauge for the economy.
Slept Through ...
I basically overslept today... thankfully. i missed how boring of a day Fed day turned out to be. I have no Long position. Cash sits >70% of my total portfolios. Big Ben saved the market from crashing. The bulls were not confident at all to keep the leaders at or near their highs of the day.
I missed getting in on HOT. However, they are supposedly reporting tomorrow 1030a, so maybe there is some time for me to get some puts. Related hotels: LVS & WYNN, both have calls AND puts in the negative. you cannot complain about a bad entry either way, hope it stays that way tomorrow. i guess i may be getting up early. but i have AMZN considerations before dumping cash in the toilet. After-market, altho happily in the red is far from being VMWish.
GOOG reports after market tomorrow. the options look TOO expensive (especially for me). So, looks like it is the hotels that i will be targeting tomorrow (btw, i cant wait for Target to finally be here)
There are rumors going around that MOT may no longer do mobile phones. I dont believe it myself, but the fact its talked about merits how this would impact the industry.
I missed getting in on HOT. However, they are supposedly reporting tomorrow 1030a, so maybe there is some time for me to get some puts. Related hotels: LVS & WYNN, both have calls AND puts in the negative. you cannot complain about a bad entry either way, hope it stays that way tomorrow. i guess i may be getting up early. but i have AMZN considerations before dumping cash in the toilet. After-market, altho happily in the red is far from being VMWish.
GOOG reports after market tomorrow. the options look TOO expensive (especially for me). So, looks like it is the hotels that i will be targeting tomorrow (btw, i cant wait for Target to finally be here)
There are rumors going around that MOT may no longer do mobile phones. I dont believe it myself, but the fact its talked about merits how this would impact the industry.
Correction
My earnings list erroneously listed AMZN reporting prior to market open. obviously, they report after market.
The pre-market reading is red, but means nothing with the FED in play. i would have bought AMZN puts today, NOT yesterday, if it had not been for my flawed listing.
This will be one of the most interesting days i will have ever watched the broad market as opposed to a small group of stocks
The pre-market reading is red, but means nothing with the FED in play. i would have bought AMZN puts today, NOT yesterday, if it had not been for my flawed listing.
This will be one of the most interesting days i will have ever watched the broad market as opposed to a small group of stocks
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
For My Own Record
I can't believe i have so many posts this month...
My thought prior to VMW & SNDK reports were buy to buy puts
VMW feb60@.85 & SNDK feb22.5@.90, but i chickened out on VMW, while i just plain forgot about SNDK. LLY also had my attention, but i have never traded a drug stocks outside of PFE. It was solid...
we'll see how the bulls begging for a huge rate cut affects both stocks.
THE potential buy for me today will be AMZN, as they report prior to market open tomorrow. Should they be grouped with other retailers? Yes... But do consumers buy from Amazon after checking the bricked stores? Yes... So there's the conundrum. It will likely site terrible guidance... just look at what guidance did to AAPL, VMW, SNDK.
I think AMZN goes down tomorrow, while MRK goes up.
So far, pre-market green: VLO, CFC, DOW, YHOO/red: CAH, X
My thought prior to VMW & SNDK reports were buy to buy puts
VMW feb60@.85 & SNDK feb22.5@.90, but i chickened out on VMW, while i just plain forgot about SNDK. LLY also had my attention, but i have never traded a drug stocks outside of PFE. It was solid...
we'll see how the bulls begging for a huge rate cut affects both stocks.
THE potential buy for me today will be AMZN, as they report prior to market open tomorrow. Should they be grouped with other retailers? Yes... But do consumers buy from Amazon after checking the bricked stores? Yes... So there's the conundrum. It will likely site terrible guidance... just look at what guidance did to AAPL, VMW, SNDK.
I think AMZN goes down tomorrow, while MRK goes up.
So far, pre-market green: VLO, CFC, DOW, YHOO/red: CAH, X
Monday, January 28, 2008
VMW
all things considering... this stock will win the one day percentage fall of the year. i thought AAPL would win.
i look longingly at what a cheap put buy would have resulted tomorrow.
o.k. (5 seconds...) iʻm over it...
many more high flyers on the board this week. let the FED pump them up first.
this fall impresses the point that for any stock we see as fundamentally unsound. no rate cut will save them
Shout out to Gio. i keep forgetting to add WYNN to my hotel list
So officially... HET, HOT, LVS, WYNN...
I also want to do a stock shout out: SHW... maybe they lose $ not having enough new houses to paint, or they make $ with people relegated to painting their shack... looking at the after-hours, they are already trading red, bummer i thought i could wait til tomorrow
Tomorrow i will watch VMW crumble... look at the rest of the eco news this week, they all involve the negatives for consumer: oil, employment, consumer confidence, inflation - man i should have traded for long puts in VWM & SNDK. Maybe the Big Boys were doing a fake out in pushing the market up, to sell their longs and short for the rest of this coming month.
I think Gioʻs take on MA is right on. it has a ways to go down... many more stocks will fall...
i look longingly at what a cheap put buy would have resulted tomorrow.
o.k. (5 seconds...) iʻm over it...
many more high flyers on the board this week. let the FED pump them up first.
this fall impresses the point that for any stock we see as fundamentally unsound. no rate cut will save them
Shout out to Gio. i keep forgetting to add WYNN to my hotel list
So officially... HET, HOT, LVS, WYNN...
I also want to do a stock shout out: SHW... maybe they lose $ not having enough new houses to paint, or they make $ with people relegated to painting their shack... looking at the after-hours, they are already trading red, bummer i thought i could wait til tomorrow
Tomorrow i will watch VMW crumble... look at the rest of the eco news this week, they all involve the negatives for consumer: oil, employment, consumer confidence, inflation - man i should have traded for long puts in VWM & SNDK. Maybe the Big Boys were doing a fake out in pushing the market up, to sell their longs and short for the rest of this coming month.
I think Gioʻs take on MA is right on. it has a ways to go down... many more stocks will fall...
Theory Realized
A few posts ago, my confidence in BDK was absolute versus AXP & HAL. My gut was right. It opened down hard. the FED thing... *sigh* again gets in the way. so, my portfolios are in a holding patter
once the FED gets out of the way this wednesday, the bears will indeed control the market. If he does something like a rate cut >.50 (even >.25), well... what does it say to EVERYONE who owes money. The emergency cut last week hasnt gone to work yet.
either way, this market is heading down no matter what he does (hopefully he says something that implies just that). the housing numbers were bad... and yet the marketʻs rate cut hopes keep the market in the green.
We have some huge earnings reports this week... i will wait for the FED to open their mouth before obtain more positions, a short vacation...
Hotel stocks are rallying... HET, HOT, LVS, MAR. recession will definitely do them in, they will be the next headliner (media is already late in reporting this stuff) now that housing is old news. Not good for vacation spots like Hawaii
once the FED gets out of the way this wednesday, the bears will indeed control the market. If he does something like a rate cut >.50 (even >.25), well... what does it say to EVERYONE who owes money. The emergency cut last week hasnt gone to work yet.
either way, this market is heading down no matter what he does (hopefully he says something that implies just that). the housing numbers were bad... and yet the marketʻs rate cut hopes keep the market in the green.
We have some huge earnings reports this week... i will wait for the FED to open their mouth before obtain more positions, a short vacation...
Hotel stocks are rallying... HET, HOT, LVS, MAR. recession will definitely do them in, they will be the next headliner (media is already late in reporting this stuff) now that housing is old news. Not good for vacation spots like Hawaii
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Mondayʻs Action...
SNDK, VMW, report after market close. the thing is they are too oversold, tho VMW can go lower (Aug 26 low: 71.44). Guidance is key in all reports... regardless of past earnings. i will decide whether to get some puts on them
VZ on the other hand, i have no idea when they report... i will forego the trade on the action of the day.
I already have AXP, BDK & HAL in play... hope they score wins...
At the end of the day... Tuesday earnings before the market... iʻll check them out tomorrow.
There are a lot more important things to do... In the "Near Future" there will be more cataclysmic things to worry about.
update:
Nikkei down about 4%(Japanese recession news), Han Seng -4.5%, Strait -3.96%... Oh and Europe opens in the red....line up them puts.
VZ on the other hand, i have no idea when they report... i will forego the trade on the action of the day.
I already have AXP, BDK & HAL in play... hope they score wins...
At the end of the day... Tuesday earnings before the market... iʻll check them out tomorrow.
There are a lot more important things to do... In the "Near Future" there will be more cataclysmic things to worry about.
update:
Nikkei down about 4%(Japanese recession news), Han Seng -4.5%, Strait -3.96%... Oh and Europe opens in the red....line up them puts.
Friday, January 25, 2008
Bought MORE Puts
AXP, BDK & HAL... I think itʻs obvious to me BDK should be a winner, i could be wrong. But no one is doing much building outside of China. Gotta go...
I remain bearish on earnings...
I remain bearish on earnings...
Thursday, January 24, 2008
MSFT EXPECTED... THE FUN PART IS NEXT WEEK.
Well, i did think MSFT would do well enough. but i didnʻt want to buy calls...
will it lift Tech forward? My thinking is that we will have this bounce into next week with the FED coming to play yet again. A rate cut thatʻs not to the streets liking will result in you know what...
My only spec to win was KLAC. Semiʻs at this point arenʻt where you want to be. i looked into BRCM & CY and obviously should have chose them. They wouldʻve been better than XRX & SYMC (both companies of which i didnʻt know fully their biz... which ultimately affected my bottom line.) i am still >80% cash... so iʻm basically all puts... just sitting and waiting... these small spec positions have resulted in small loses and a few huge gains.
Man is AAPL cheap...i thought there would be some buying today... maybe tomorrow - i dont plan to be one of them...
Letʻs see how far the FED goes next week... that will show us whats in store the next month of trading... whether bad earnings will be allowed to bring the market lower at an exaggerated rate or what we would consider normal
will it lift Tech forward? My thinking is that we will have this bounce into next week with the FED coming to play yet again. A rate cut thatʻs not to the streets liking will result in you know what...
My only spec to win was KLAC. Semiʻs at this point arenʻt where you want to be. i looked into BRCM & CY and obviously should have chose them. They wouldʻve been better than XRX & SYMC (both companies of which i didnʻt know fully their biz... which ultimately affected my bottom line.) i am still >80% cash... so iʻm basically all puts... just sitting and waiting... these small spec positions have resulted in small loses and a few huge gains.
Man is AAPL cheap...i thought there would be some buying today... maybe tomorrow - i dont plan to be one of them...
Letʻs see how far the FED goes next week... that will show us whats in store the next month of trading... whether bad earnings will be allowed to bring the market lower at an exaggerated rate or what we would consider normal
Risk Management... Reassess
With another possible rate cut ahead of us, I got out of BSC put. I was surprised i still had something to close out at a minor loss. My SYMC obviously didnʻt work, i didnʻt know they had an international side to their biz. itʻs a wash, but any Tech news can bring this thing down enough for a smaller loss.
Iʻm left with the following in play:
portfolio A
IWM mar 63 put (time on my side)
FXI jan 50 put (far out, to be sure, but itʻs early in the bear market)
WB feb25 put (no sense selling now)
XRX feb 12 put (earnings await)
KLA feb 37.5 put (earnings await)
The key stock is MSFT earnings. i think theyʻll meet, but have flat to conservative guidance, Halo sales bailed them out.
all losses for me now, but enough time to work something out
portfolio B
AMD feb 5 put
JPM mar 32.5 put
WFC apr 22.5 put (i had 100% gain, but anyway...)
DECK mar 65 (reaching... had a chance to cash if not for the FED)
Otherwise, iʻm mostly left to cash, iʻm unsure of adding CAT. The broad markets are green, but earnings will be key going forward. The FED will cut again with much volatility ahead.
Bear markets are said to AVERAGE 18 months... enough said, we have 6 to 18 months or so, with many thinking beyond 18 months considering how bad the banks/creditors jammed up the market. btw, AAPL is dirt cheap... but i wonʻt buy til Apr earnings at the earliest
Iʻm left with the following in play:
portfolio A
IWM mar 63 put (time on my side)
FXI jan 50 put (far out, to be sure, but itʻs early in the bear market)
WB feb25 put (no sense selling now)
XRX feb 12 put (earnings await)
KLA feb 37.5 put (earnings await)
The key stock is MSFT earnings. i think theyʻll meet, but have flat to conservative guidance, Halo sales bailed them out.
all losses for me now, but enough time to work something out
portfolio B
AMD feb 5 put
JPM mar 32.5 put
WFC apr 22.5 put (i had 100% gain, but anyway...)
DECK mar 65 (reaching... had a chance to cash if not for the FED)
Otherwise, iʻm mostly left to cash, iʻm unsure of adding CAT. The broad markets are green, but earnings will be key going forward. The FED will cut again with much volatility ahead.
Bear markets are said to AVERAGE 18 months... enough said, we have 6 to 18 months or so, with many thinking beyond 18 months considering how bad the banks/creditors jammed up the market. btw, AAPL is dirt cheap... but i wonʻt buy til Apr earnings at the earliest
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
MORE PUTS...
Bot MORE puts:
itʻs doubtful that my positioning today has much merit. but i am totally basing my puts on earnings. Anyway, most of my cash as most of the pros are doing stays cash...
KLAC (i shouldʻve waited tomorrow, they reported after close)
BSC (not a good idea...i should have waited for it to touch 50dayEMA)
XRX (hope it falls hard enough if at all)
wanted to, but they stayed red... so, i stayed away:
BRCM, CY
got in too late... maybe a good thing
LVS, CMG... but i am in no rush if they stay positive
GIO went Short(yesterdays leaders: esp solars) & Long (bottoms)
btw, MyTone are you still out there?
Now, Tech will be a slave to MSFTʻs earnings.
If good news after hours from them, Tech will rally continues... if not we know where weʻre going.
I will buy CAT puts (and maybe HON) tomorrow on bad fundamentals the rest of the year... They both report Friday.
Alot of people bought the bottom today... it seems safer to buy here than where Tim did... props to all of you who did... keep nimble.
itʻs doubtful that my positioning today has much merit. but i am totally basing my puts on earnings. Anyway, most of my cash as most of the pros are doing stays cash...
KLAC (i shouldʻve waited tomorrow, they reported after close)
BSC (not a good idea...i should have waited for it to touch 50dayEMA)
XRX (hope it falls hard enough if at all)
wanted to, but they stayed red... so, i stayed away:
BRCM, CY
got in too late... maybe a good thing
LVS, CMG... but i am in no rush if they stay positive
GIO went Short(yesterdays leaders: esp solars) & Long (bottoms)
btw, MyTone are you still out there?
Now, Tech will be a slave to MSFTʻs earnings.
If good news after hours from them, Tech will rally continues... if not we know where weʻre going.
I will buy CAT puts (and maybe HON) tomorrow on bad fundamentals the rest of the year... They both report Friday.
Alot of people bought the bottom today... it seems safer to buy here than where Tim did... props to all of you who did... keep nimble.
SOLD! AAPL & MOT puts
I resist the temptation to flip to calls.
put sale...
AAPL: 235% gain
MOT: 341% gain
by far my best trades since the days of TIE and the iPhone release.
Now i wait for SYMC to report...
I will add to my positions based on other earnings... KLAC a possibility
Other semi's include: CY, BRCM, but they are already trading lower.
MSFT is expected to meet expectations, which would move Tech positive
My financial puts are taking a beating early... however, time is on my side. AND! i think there is some reloading for sell of happening.
My spec trade will be CAT... slowing economy, less things to build, outside of China getting ready for the Olympics
put sale...
AAPL: 235% gain
MOT: 341% gain
by far my best trades since the days of TIE and the iPhone release.
Now i wait for SYMC to report...
I will add to my positions based on other earnings... KLAC a possibility
Other semi's include: CY, BRCM, but they are already trading lower.
MSFT is expected to meet expectations, which would move Tech positive
My financial puts are taking a beating early... however, time is on my side. AND! i think there is some reloading for sell of happening.
My spec trade will be CAT... slowing economy, less things to build, outside of China getting ready for the Olympics
Early Morning...
It seems we're headed for some kind of bounce. Although not all securities are equal. If the pop does indeed happen, GIO mentioned he may SHORT FXP & logically LONG FXI... personally, i'm not into risking a falling knife, but china/Asia really sold off...and their part of the world had tremendous rallies post FED cut. had we done just that when the FED acted, we'd already be sitting with green.
DECK seems eventually headed for a crash... when? who knows... but the reward is great and patience is required.
the FED has only slowed the fall, not prevent it. for now, as i mentioned, this bogus bounce will not prevent weak earnings/guidance.
i will sell AAPL 1/2 hour into the session. Apple will be a solid LONG when all this stuff gets sifted. they seem to be grabbing marketshare everywhere (1/2% increase = about a $billion revenue). it turns out the subscription cut they receive was a good idea, if sales do slow. For now it's AAPL shorting/puts
DECK seems eventually headed for a crash... when? who knows... but the reward is great and patience is required.
the FED has only slowed the fall, not prevent it. for now, as i mentioned, this bogus bounce will not prevent weak earnings/guidance.
i will sell AAPL 1/2 hour into the session. Apple will be a solid LONG when all this stuff gets sifted. they seem to be grabbing marketshare everywhere (1/2% increase = about a $billion revenue). it turns out the subscription cut they receive was a good idea, if sales do slow. For now it's AAPL shorting/puts
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
AAPL... voids the FED (And Saves my puts)
As history shows, AAPL always undercuts Q2 guidance. and in this market, the stock pays big time. Anyway, i was too embarrassed that i even placed a call position(Feb200 yeah right!?) in my last posting... i just didnt see any reason to be bullish, so the sympathy trade cost me $107.
Tomorrow will feel the AAPL effect... no FED cut will bail out bad earnings or guidance... MOT & SYMC both will likely report terrible guidance. MOT is already feeling the heat from BBerrys & iPhones. For SYMC, if no one is selling enough PCs, then no oneʻs buying your useless software.
This band-aide approach by the FED will mean more red ahead... hey that rhymes!
Tomorrow will feel the AAPL effect... no FED cut will bail out bad earnings or guidance... MOT & SYMC both will likely report terrible guidance. MOT is already feeling the heat from BBerrys & iPhones. For SYMC, if no one is selling enough PCs, then no oneʻs buying your useless software.
This band-aide approach by the FED will mean more red ahead... hey that rhymes!
Ben Presses Button
it took awhile for things to settle upward. but ben did it. in the end, he did somewhat stabilize things. now earnings reaction will not be as exaggerated. i am unsure whether that is good or not (especially for bears).
i had everything green for awhile, but failed to close positions, especially WFC, thinking weʻll have another bad day tomorrow. so now i am back in the negative. *sigh*
i allowed things to melt up without placing a single call at the moment. not smart...
i bot a bunch of stuff mostly at the end of the trading day, still leaning on puts:
MOT feb12, IWM mar63, SYMC feb15, WB feb25(dumb)...
MOT & SYMC i think are just fundamentally in trouble, it was a market trade but pure earnings. IWM may have been a bad idea, with the Fib bottom at this tier @ 63... then again, i think we go lower past Feb.
AAPL feb135 & call(forgot which strike)... i think trading AAPL again may cost me, but it seems that conservative guidance has been the hallmark of AAPLʻs stock movement. this one stock could lead a mini-rally or bring things right back down again.
To those who visit Timʻs site, doesnt he owe Ben big time for bailing him out of his NDX calls? i think so... funny, he flips right around and buys NDX/RUT puts. he is after all a bear.
i had everything green for awhile, but failed to close positions, especially WFC, thinking weʻll have another bad day tomorrow. so now i am back in the negative. *sigh*
i allowed things to melt up without placing a single call at the moment. not smart...
i bot a bunch of stuff mostly at the end of the trading day, still leaning on puts:
MOT feb12, IWM mar63, SYMC feb15, WB feb25(dumb)...
MOT & SYMC i think are just fundamentally in trouble, it was a market trade but pure earnings. IWM may have been a bad idea, with the Fib bottom at this tier @ 63... then again, i think we go lower past Feb.
AAPL feb135 & call(forgot which strike)... i think trading AAPL again may cost me, but it seems that conservative guidance has been the hallmark of AAPLʻs stock movement. this one stock could lead a mini-rally or bring things right back down again.
To those who visit Timʻs site, doesnt he owe Ben big time for bailing him out of his NDX calls? i think so... funny, he flips right around and buys NDX/RUT puts. he is after all a bear.
PRE-MARKET...HOW LOW CAN YOU GO?
if you wanted a short/put position today, you are too late...
FXP will be making alot of people rich today! of course, i failed to place an aftermarket position on friday, altho we all knew this day was coming. the good news is that all my positions should be ringing in green
JPM, WFC, AMD, DECK.
btw, DECK falling nowhere as fast as Tech, Energy, Solar, Finance. bummer...
For the AAPL trade, it may very well happen, premarket touched <149 (below august low!, but recovered slightly. so a quick call position at the end of the day is now possible and as well as a put position.
The market has decided, regardless of earnings... red, red, and more red. i do think this day will end better than Friday... or not as bad
FXP will be making alot of people rich today! of course, i failed to place an aftermarket position on friday, altho we all knew this day was coming. the good news is that all my positions should be ringing in green
JPM, WFC, AMD, DECK.
btw, DECK falling nowhere as fast as Tech, Energy, Solar, Finance. bummer...
For the AAPL trade, it may very well happen, premarket touched <149 (below august low!, but recovered slightly. so a quick call position at the end of the day is now possible and as well as a put position.
The market has decided, regardless of earnings... red, red, and more red. i do think this day will end better than Friday... or not as bad
Correction...Correction
First off. the market was closed on Monday. i think it should close on all holidays. none of this half day stuff, since it confuses me.
And well, the correction *ahem* (bear market) continues . Asia crashes, Europe doesn't quite fall as hard, but closed red nontheless.
I don't plan to enter new positions. Gio in thinking to strangle AAPL. he got much more guts than i do. if it falls hard enough, i may do a meager call/put position just prior to close. it will blow by earnings, and will have much iPhone/Mac marketshare news to share, the question tho is guidance.
the only chart that looks attractive to buy further puts is UAUA. It actually received some upgrades recently, oil droping helps, but i don't think recession does.
Jan 23 seems to have more interesting trades, tho i will have to skim a few charts.
And well, the correction *ahem* (bear market) continues . Asia crashes, Europe doesn't quite fall as hard, but closed red nontheless.
I don't plan to enter new positions. Gio in thinking to strangle AAPL. he got much more guts than i do. if it falls hard enough, i may do a meager call/put position just prior to close. it will blow by earnings, and will have much iPhone/Mac marketshare news to share, the question tho is guidance.
the only chart that looks attractive to buy further puts is UAUA. It actually received some upgrades recently, oil droping helps, but i don't think recession does.
Jan 23 seems to have more interesting trades, tho i will have to skim a few charts.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
TOO MANY TO CHOSE FROM!!!
Well, technicals, FED rate cut (maybe Jan30), blah blah blah... all reasons for a bounce. sure, but as you all know a bounce literally means it will eventually head back down. so i welcome a bounce short-term.
China gloom is here. Bank of China has a subprime mess themselves
A trading buddy "Gio" got a nice short on *ahem* ultraputs (FXP). but as you all know itʻs set to go much higher.
Wait til the employment rate rockets higher, then the bears will have their day... i mean year...
Iʻm just buying puts... hereʻs my plan so far
Any stock that has 3 digits (DECK, CMG, FWLT, GS) are on my radar first.
any vacation related: LVS, HET, airlines
then any tech... especially semi. AAPL may survive longer than all tech
then any military heavy selling firm, if a democrat gets in office
lastly, small boxed retail...
This weekʻs earnings are full of questions... much to sift through.
Hereʻs hoping for a nice bounce Monday before Tuesdayʻs eco: jobless claims, home sales, crude inventory
Asia & Europe is getting pounded as i type this...
China gloom is here. Bank of China has a subprime mess themselves
A trading buddy "Gio" got a nice short on *ahem* ultraputs (FXP). but as you all know itʻs set to go much higher.
Wait til the employment rate rockets higher, then the bears will have their day... i mean year...
Iʻm just buying puts... hereʻs my plan so far
Any stock that has 3 digits (DECK, CMG, FWLT, GS) are on my radar first.
any vacation related: LVS, HET, airlines
then any tech... especially semi. AAPL may survive longer than all tech
then any military heavy selling firm, if a democrat gets in office
lastly, small boxed retail...
This weekʻs earnings are full of questions... much to sift through.
Hereʻs hoping for a nice bounce Monday before Tuesdayʻs eco: jobless claims, home sales, crude inventory
Asia & Europe is getting pounded as i type this...
Friday, January 18, 2008
SOLD! STX... OTHERS WAVERING
STX 120% gain not bad... i will remind myself continually of how dumb my MacWorld plan was... and now iʻm having to do these small trades. but at the same time i am being forced into more efficient trades. banking profits bit by bit.
So bush proposes $145B for the economy. uh, hello? am i getting part of that? where is that 145 going to anyway? (rhetorical question). these bums want to money to bail them out of their greed while we normal people have to WORK to get out of our debts and stuff.
i am looking at CMG, FWLT, LVS, WYNN(thx gio)...MON... as potential puts. let this bounce clear a bit
Earnings next week Tuesday in particular... UAUA, TXN, JNJ, HOKU, BAC, AAPL (them again)... i am looking for a short-term bounce and i hate to say it, but AAPL will likely get pumped prior to earnings... but they always seem to lowball the next Q guidance. so, iʻll set up for that...
Props go out to Gio in shorting FXP... if anything, after this short-term fall, it now forms a base to go to the 100s. i will wait patiently to buy FXP calls(expensive) iʻd rather go FXI puts... yes he got choked by shorting SRS too... but hey he won out in the balance sheet...
I canʻt find anything interesting for me to buy today... i will enjoy this weekend and hold my positions
So bush proposes $145B for the economy. uh, hello? am i getting part of that? where is that 145 going to anyway? (rhetorical question). these bums want to money to bail them out of their greed while we normal people have to WORK to get out of our debts and stuff.
i am looking at CMG, FWLT, LVS, WYNN(thx gio)...MON... as potential puts. let this bounce clear a bit
Earnings next week Tuesday in particular... UAUA, TXN, JNJ, HOKU, BAC, AAPL (them again)... i am looking for a short-term bounce and i hate to say it, but AAPL will likely get pumped prior to earnings... but they always seem to lowball the next Q guidance. so, iʻll set up for that...
Props go out to Gio in shorting FXP... if anything, after this short-term fall, it now forms a base to go to the 100s. i will wait patiently to buy FXP calls(expensive) iʻd rather go FXI puts... yes he got choked by shorting SRS too... but hey he won out in the balance sheet...
I canʻt find anything interesting for me to buy today... i will enjoy this weekend and hold my positions
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Patience Is Key
I read that the most successful speculators...rarely trade in a bear market. it impresses upon me the need to see this whole year in perspective... most of my puts are in the March/April expiration. the Fly mentions the market indeed has room to fall 13-20% year to date...he notes weʻre at 7%.
I have been trading earnings... buying puts... in addition to Mar/Apr puts. the thing is... it requires getting up early to close for profits. i must say, iʻm tired... maybe itʻs the Shalacking i got with MacWorld... still iʻm trying to limit my trades.
i added AMD sometime today to my puts... maybe that was not worth it. itʻs green right now, but weʻll see if the bounce wipes that dry...
I have been trading earnings... buying puts... in addition to Mar/Apr puts. the thing is... it requires getting up early to close for profits. i must say, iʻm tired... maybe itʻs the Shalacking i got with MacWorld... still iʻm trying to limit my trades.
i added AMD sometime today to my puts... maybe that was not worth it. itʻs green right now, but weʻll see if the bounce wipes that dry...
FWLT... MON
They provide construction and engineering to oil and gas, oil refining, chemical/petrochemical, pharmaceutical, environmental, power generation, and power plant operation and maintenance sectors worldwide.
Tim had this on his watchlist >2 weeks ago... it had a chance to turn around today, based on the candlestick. Itʻs 200MA is 119, however, itʻs august low was 95ish. So, thereʻs room to be sold.
On the other hand MON, i think is a solid company this year. but this was the first time it showed it can fall with the rest of the market. It broke itʻs 50dayMA and is headed after a bounce...to the low 80ʻs
just look at the market as a whole and pick a pricey momentum stock... you can find these gems everywhere...
Tim had this on his watchlist >2 weeks ago... it had a chance to turn around today, based on the candlestick. Itʻs 200MA is 119, however, itʻs august low was 95ish. So, thereʻs room to be sold.
On the other hand MON, i think is a solid company this year. but this was the first time it showed it can fall with the rest of the market. It broke itʻs 50dayMA and is headed after a bounce...to the low 80ʻs
just look at the market as a whole and pick a pricey momentum stock... you can find these gems everywhere...
ARGH!!! I FORGOT MER reported today!!!
Paying attention can mean lost opportunities...
Looking above at my earnings list... thereʻs a reason i put those tickers up there. And i forgot about it when i closed out my Wednesday: AAPL puts & INTC puts... and buying DECK, STX, WM puts.
AAPL did bounce and i think will find itʻs way back to 150... but i am going after 2nd tier stocks from here...
The Market Panic has indeed set in... you can almost throw a dart at short/put and go green...
i left it all alone... PUTS in DECK(still a ways to go down), STX, WFC, JPM, WM.
I will update my earnings list this weekend and plan accordingly.
Looking above at my earnings list... thereʻs a reason i put those tickers up there. And i forgot about it when i closed out my Wednesday: AAPL puts & INTC puts... and buying DECK, STX, WM puts.
AAPL did bounce and i think will find itʻs way back to 150... but i am going after 2nd tier stocks from here...
The Market Panic has indeed set in... you can almost throw a dart at short/put and go green...
i left it all alone... PUTS in DECK(still a ways to go down), STX, WFC, JPM, WM.
I will update my earnings list this weekend and plan accordingly.
Leaving Portfolio Alone
AAPL bounced happened. glad i closed that short-term put. hopefully it sets up flat prior to earnings...
Left STX, JPM, WFC, DECK puts in play...
CAL survived last Q. it seems airlines will continue to enjoy a drop in fuel prices. but that will be tempered by fewer travelers. long-term/fundamentally it doesnt look good for them
LVS is near it's lows. I'm trying to add HET puts. They have been resistant to falling, i don't think it's gonna last very long from here.
Ag is falling... in particular MON. whew glad i closed that position last week.
Progress for the year so far, the only failure has been AAPL (huge failure). Otherwise, my positions have leaned green or closed out close to cost.
In this bear market, there are too many choices...
Left STX, JPM, WFC, DECK puts in play...
CAL survived last Q. it seems airlines will continue to enjoy a drop in fuel prices. but that will be tempered by fewer travelers. long-term/fundamentally it doesnt look good for them
LVS is near it's lows. I'm trying to add HET puts. They have been resistant to falling, i don't think it's gonna last very long from here.
Ag is falling... in particular MON. whew glad i closed that position last week.
Progress for the year so far, the only failure has been AAPL (huge failure). Otherwise, my positions have leaned green or closed out close to cost.
In this bear market, there are too many choices...
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
SOLD!
I didnʻt hold on to my AAPL/INTC puts very long... if anything i should have sold them before 11... all i know is there may be a slight bounce. and i wanted to cash in...
i bought a few puts STX & DECK (i know some closed it out)...into Feb & Mar respectively...
Next week we have barely any Eco news, but Jan 24 has jobless news/home sales... so weʻre set up for another fall...
I am mostly at cash... enough said...
FLY made an interesting thought on Chinaʻs inflation... heʻs right on that one, except that it seems to me that the US will continue to buy things made in China anyway at Walmart.
Oil is going down... but will indeed be back up in the summer... Airlines, FedX, UPS, all transports burning gas are enjoying watching oil fall for now...
i bought a few puts STX & DECK (i know some closed it out)...into Feb & Mar respectively...
Next week we have barely any Eco news, but Jan 24 has jobless news/home sales... so weʻre set up for another fall...
I am mostly at cash... enough said...
FLY made an interesting thought on Chinaʻs inflation... heʻs right on that one, except that it seems to me that the US will continue to buy things made in China anyway at Walmart.
Oil is going down... but will indeed be back up in the summer... Airlines, FedX, UPS, all transports burning gas are enjoying watching oil fall for now...
Time Factors... Yahoo Finance Data
Yesterdays MacWorld loses was based on going the wrong way AS WELL AS buying calls so close to expiration. Of course, had they gone green i'd the man (until i lost the dough again).
Lesson re-learned along with a bunch of others that i already knew...
Anyway, altho JPM & WFC are indeed pre-market green, they both cite unsure futures. So, buying time on their falling in March/April
Tech on the other hand (thx to bland MacWorld & Bad INTC views) is falling hard NOW before the market opens. Tech may catch last years Aug lows... AAPL as an example fell hard to 150. I hesitate to hold these past the FED's beige book @ 2pm EST...
For those that have been waiting for BEAS to agree to ORCL buy out, today is your day.
FYI, IBM earnings was listed on Yahoo Finance as being on Jan 17. So, double check earnings list... not sure if it would have change my trades on Jan 15, but missed opportunities can be costly.
Lesson re-learned along with a bunch of others that i already knew...
Anyway, altho JPM & WFC are indeed pre-market green, they both cite unsure futures. So, buying time on their falling in March/April
Tech on the other hand (thx to bland MacWorld & Bad INTC views) is falling hard NOW before the market opens. Tech may catch last years Aug lows... AAPL as an example fell hard to 150. I hesitate to hold these past the FED's beige book @ 2pm EST...
For those that have been waiting for BEAS to agree to ORCL buy out, today is your day.
FYI, IBM earnings was listed on Yahoo Finance as being on Jan 17. So, double check earnings list... not sure if it would have change my trades on Jan 15, but missed opportunities can be costly.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Puts Galore...
Right after my MacWorld fiasco... like right after i saw the price of the MacBook Air, i actually did something productive and bought the following:
AAPL: Feb145put
INTC: FEB20put
WFC: Jan25 & Apr22.5put
JPM: Mar32.5put
i wonʻt be suprised if a reactive bounce happens... thatʻs been the kind of day that shows my blog name was the perfect name for my poor execution... weʻll see how tomorrow goes.
on the positive side of for future iPhone users... IBM Lotus apps with the iPhone could present a real challenge to RIMM going forward. As Mr. Jobs pointed out marketshare number of Smartphone/iPhones sales falling only behind RIMM
AAPL: Feb145put
INTC: FEB20put
WFC: Jan25 & Apr22.5put
JPM: Mar32.5put
i wonʻt be suprised if a reactive bounce happens... thatʻs been the kind of day that shows my blog name was the perfect name for my poor execution... weʻll see how tomorrow goes.
on the positive side of for future iPhone users... IBM Lotus apps with the iPhone could present a real challenge to RIMM going forward. As Mr. Jobs pointed out marketshare number of Smartphone/iPhones sales falling only behind RIMM
Utter Failure (of course)
I was hoping Jobs would elaborate on the numbers more... not this time... it makes me wonder - even though earnings will blow away previous quarters, what expectations & guidance will be needed to please the street...
i for one will officially jump off the MacWorld bandwagon, if anything my failure to switch to puts at the first sight of trouble cost me... big. percentage wise. though 4 figures is nothing to sneeze at. itʻs at the least embolden me to finish reading my investment books & ditch this supposed huge day...
the funny thing is that my position would have been half of what i placed today in MON & RIMM recently and yet they were huge winners. time to move back to helping whack this market to shreds via puts... just think if i had "shorted/put" MacWorld instead.
My only bull position in MON...
i will reload after the FED opens their mouth...
congrats to the DECK money machine... in a twist of irony guess what puts i bought at the end of MacWorld...
iʻm just glad today is done...
i for one will officially jump off the MacWorld bandwagon, if anything my failure to switch to puts at the first sight of trouble cost me... big. percentage wise. though 4 figures is nothing to sneeze at. itʻs at the least embolden me to finish reading my investment books & ditch this supposed huge day...
the funny thing is that my position would have been half of what i placed today in MON & RIMM recently and yet they were huge winners. time to move back to helping whack this market to shreds via puts... just think if i had "shorted/put" MacWorld instead.
My only bull position in MON...
i will reload after the FED opens their mouth...
congrats to the DECK money machine... in a twist of irony guess what puts i bought at the end of MacWorld...
iʻm just glad today is done...
Pre-Market... Pre-MacWorld
first of all, SHLD didnt have an earnings report my first mistake. it was a profit warning. (or no profit)
Pre-market news:
Citi stunk up the joint as expected... (worse than Street expected)
FXI is deep in the red... (so i may have sold my FXP prematurely.)
EDU reporting as i type this (Gio has them short)
AAPL trading red as is most of the market...
i don't have a day-trading acct otherwise i would have bought AAPL today and sell in a flash if there was no news today. MacWorld Keynote is 9am PST.
part 2 of the Plan... sell AAPL on hopefully good news. and wait what happens after the FED. and get more DECK, LVS on green signs.
Pre-market news:
Citi stunk up the joint as expected... (worse than Street expected)
FXI is deep in the red... (so i may have sold my FXP prematurely.)
EDU reporting as i type this (Gio has them short)
AAPL trading red as is most of the market...
i don't have a day-trading acct otherwise i would have bought AAPL today and sell in a flash if there was no news today. MacWorld Keynote is 9am PST.
part 2 of the Plan... sell AAPL on hopefully good news. and wait what happens after the FED. and get more DECK, LVS on green signs.
Monday, January 14, 2008
Clarifications...
thx guys for participating in my sad blog...
Gio: No way i plan to short AAPL... rather it was NFLX i was referring to... they will be another Napster, Sony, Virgin Music, et al. AMZN is the only competition for music/movie downloads i see as being a threat. oh and nice play on EDU, i didnʻt see that one on the earnings list... let alone SHLD, man i missed that one.
mytone: thx for contributing. AAPL will indeed break quickly on bad news. i am merely positioning for Mr. Jobs to pump the stock up prior to earnings... which heʻs done for the last 4 years or so. they had some aggressive guidance for this past Q. if they beat then Jobs will likely brag on units sold for Macs vs. PCs and iPhones vs. other smartphones (he likely wouldnʻt use RIMM in the conversation). Market share going forward is what he can sell to investors.
regardless of how MacWorld goes tomorrow financially. the products are always interesting. Jobs is the best ever marketing CEO of all time, especially in Tech.
Gio: No way i plan to short AAPL... rather it was NFLX i was referring to... they will be another Napster, Sony, Virgin Music, et al. AMZN is the only competition for music/movie downloads i see as being a threat. oh and nice play on EDU, i didnʻt see that one on the earnings list... let alone SHLD, man i missed that one.
mytone: thx for contributing. AAPL will indeed break quickly on bad news. i am merely positioning for Mr. Jobs to pump the stock up prior to earnings... which heʻs done for the last 4 years or so. they had some aggressive guidance for this past Q. if they beat then Jobs will likely brag on units sold for Macs vs. PCs and iPhones vs. other smartphones (he likely wouldnʻt use RIMM in the conversation). Market share going forward is what he can sell to investors.
regardless of how MacWorld goes tomorrow financially. the products are always interesting. Jobs is the best ever marketing CEO of all time, especially in Tech.
Sticking to the PLAN
Reevaluating my positions i sold my puts in LVS & DECK, as well as FXP... all for this "bounce"
I missed that SHLD had earnings today, donʻt know how i missed that with my supposed Earnings Watch, alas another missed opportunity. Look for all the retail guys and short/put them.
I finally bought some Ag via MON Apr130calls... still kicking myself for not following my own advice a number of posts ago. Dec 4th to be exact!
So, the Plan, bought AAPL calls: Jan175 & Jan180 at the end of the trading day, thereʻs is always a little seling off at the end. buying @ the open would have been obviously better, but the hype thatʻs being built into the stock is not what i wanted nor expected... it may very well be well founded... the hammer shown today usually bodes well technically as it finished above the previous dayʻs high. the Keynote tomorrow will hopefully includes a sales update of the number of Macs & iPhones sold, being that they were so aggressive in the guidance.
If INTC does indeed beat the street then there is room for error on AAPL... as the market will hopefully pull in buyers of Tech. AAPL earnings are another story, they often fail to give solid guidance... and the stock falls for a couple days. so buyers beware.
If my PLAN doesnt work tomorrow, iʻm left to buying ETFs (FXP, SKF) and cheap solar AKNS (Thx Gio). At least i have MON.
OOPS forgot to buy NFLX puts...
I missed that SHLD had earnings today, donʻt know how i missed that with my supposed Earnings Watch, alas another missed opportunity. Look for all the retail guys and short/put them.
I finally bought some Ag via MON Apr130calls... still kicking myself for not following my own advice a number of posts ago. Dec 4th to be exact!
So, the Plan, bought AAPL calls: Jan175 & Jan180 at the end of the trading day, thereʻs is always a little seling off at the end. buying @ the open would have been obviously better, but the hype thatʻs being built into the stock is not what i wanted nor expected... it may very well be well founded... the hammer shown today usually bodes well technically as it finished above the previous dayʻs high. the Keynote tomorrow will hopefully includes a sales update of the number of Macs & iPhones sold, being that they were so aggressive in the guidance.
If INTC does indeed beat the street then there is room for error on AAPL... as the market will hopefully pull in buyers of Tech. AAPL earnings are another story, they often fail to give solid guidance... and the stock falls for a couple days. so buyers beware.
If my PLAN doesnt work tomorrow, iʻm left to buying ETFs (FXP, SKF) and cheap solar AKNS (Thx Gio). At least i have MON.
OOPS forgot to buy NFLX puts...
Sunday, January 13, 2008
More Eco Monday... and AAPL again.
I have had questions posed as to how to trade AAPL prior to MacWorld.
Historically, AAPL has posted a gain since the iPod/iTunes combo came on the scene for each MacWorld. Typically the stock falls just prior to MacWorldʻs keynote address... where Mr. Jobs often refers to "incredible" sales of ".....". This year all eyes will be on how many iPhones were sold. The goal was 10 million by the end of 2008. If we get >5 mil we should see a pop.
Also related is the iTunes/Apple TV hub... if the subscription service is indeed for real. we may be seeing both Blockbuster and Netflixʻs last days.. so shorting those stocks (i prefer NFLX, since itʻs off itʻs lows) would be another way to position your portfolio around this event.
Plan: buy AAPL calls at the end of Mondayʻs trading day... hope that INTC reports strong sales and adequate guidance. and hope the oversold tech builds a bullish background around MacWorld... and buy NFLX puts...especially since they are dirt cheap...
Historically, AAPL has posted a gain since the iPod/iTunes combo came on the scene for each MacWorld. Typically the stock falls just prior to MacWorldʻs keynote address... where Mr. Jobs often refers to "incredible" sales of ".....". This year all eyes will be on how many iPhones were sold. The goal was 10 million by the end of 2008. If we get >5 mil we should see a pop.
Also related is the iTunes/Apple TV hub... if the subscription service is indeed for real. we may be seeing both Blockbuster and Netflixʻs last days.. so shorting those stocks (i prefer NFLX, since itʻs off itʻs lows) would be another way to position your portfolio around this event.
Plan: buy AAPL calls at the end of Mondayʻs trading day... hope that INTC reports strong sales and adequate guidance. and hope the oversold tech builds a bullish background around MacWorld... and buy NFLX puts...especially since they are dirt cheap...
Friday, January 11, 2008
IWM... INTC... CMG...
Gio noted a possible bounce from INTC next Tuesday. couple that with AAPL at MacWorld (better to position this than waiting for earnings.), where theyʻll likely announce how many iPods, iPhones, Macs, etc...were sold, if the numbers beat their aggressive guidance it will be a nice pause for the bears... and a one time win for bulls... a bounce not a rally...
I regret not jumping in on CMG, talk about an overrated place to eat... sure itʻs has better ingredients than Taco Bell, but when people donʻt have $, they go cheap... why do you think McDonaldʻs is still kickinʻ. sure they are down too, but believe me, people will start choosing cheap over quality if it means their house...
One more thing to factor in on is the new president... will they raise taxes? blah blah blah, iʻm politically neutral... so no politic talking here... just be a good citizen and please pay your taxes.
So my main positions:
FXP, LVS (puts), DECK (puts)...
in my sights:
AAPL (calls), HET (puts)... too many to sift through
I regret not jumping in on CMG, talk about an overrated place to eat... sure itʻs has better ingredients than Taco Bell, but when people donʻt have $, they go cheap... why do you think McDonaldʻs is still kickinʻ. sure they are down too, but believe me, people will start choosing cheap over quality if it means their house...
One more thing to factor in on is the new president... will they raise taxes? blah blah blah, iʻm politically neutral... so no politic talking here... just be a good citizen and please pay your taxes.
So my main positions:
FXP, LVS (puts), DECK (puts)...
in my sights:
AAPL (calls), HET (puts)... too many to sift through
Clear the DECK
The stars have aligned (TIM & FLY agree). Deck boots, i have never seen them... but when i saw the stock price. i went cheap (Feb 100 puts), nice thing with bear markets, stocks fall faster than most rise in bulls (sans FSLR last earnings or IPOs). See chart at time of this typing (1:05pm EST), technical view is that itʻs touch the 50 EMA that now serves as resistance, if it fails to stay above yesterdays low 138.5... then thatʻs it. Although the 200 EMA sits above 100
I sold my AKAM put. My first solid winner 125% profit for a measly position elsewhere.
Props to Gio for shorting/putting MA... consumer tie in yes?
My previous post mention gold... funny i forgot to get in on it. itʻs at 900/ounce...
- any suggestions on which options to buy? NEM? AUY? something else?
I have replaced my China watch stocks with a Split Alert and will continue to add to the earnings list
I sold my AKAM put. My first solid winner 125% profit for a measly position elsewhere.
Props to Gio for shorting/putting MA... consumer tie in yes?
My previous post mention gold... funny i forgot to get in on it. itʻs at 900/ounce...
- any suggestions on which options to buy? NEM? AUY? something else?
I have replaced my China watch stocks with a Split Alert and will continue to add to the earnings list
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Everything Expected, sans BAC & CFC...
I expected today to go green... Ben and his promises being my basis... but the sentiment is so bearish... the market needed the BAC report to go positive, i would have thought Ben could do that for the market. As it is...l say that CFC being bought out by BAC will be my way of say Hello to BAC puts. And yet, if this thing doesnʻt go through, we all know where the market is headed from there.
The State of Hawaii plans to purchase a bunch of Solar to help with rising energy costs. HOKU, being local, will no doubt get some of the action... how can it not, when they will eventually pump the money back in tax dollars. So, as a spec HOKU may be a nice position to hold out of the solars... the worry is can a smaller shop like HOKU have the necessary resources to handle initial expenses (polysilicon is not cheap)
AAPL as i daily mention. will hopefully close flat... i donʻt need it bleeding... just flat...
Jan 15... action and suspense awaits... and alot of $ flying
The State of Hawaii plans to purchase a bunch of Solar to help with rising energy costs. HOKU, being local, will no doubt get some of the action... how can it not, when they will eventually pump the money back in tax dollars. So, as a spec HOKU may be a nice position to hold out of the solars... the worry is can a smaller shop like HOKU have the necessary resources to handle initial expenses (polysilicon is not cheap)
AAPL as i daily mention. will hopefully close flat... i donʻt need it bleeding... just flat...
Jan 15... action and suspense awaits... and alot of $ flying
England Rate Cut News
On both sides of the capitalistic pond we have central banks with the power to improve consumer confidence. Unfortunately, on the state side, consumers in general are too busy paying off their high interest credit card rates...
We are in the midst of a market where any bad news is to a bear market as good news was to the last bull run and also during the dot-com phase... extreme...
Let the buyers come in... so they can get whacked. Of course, the FED rescuing the Market like a dad saving his spoiled son doesnt do anyone favors except the insiders. The normal hard working people like ourselves tend to be the victims...
We are in the midst of a market where any bad news is to a bear market as good news was to the last bull run and also during the dot-com phase... extreme...
Let the buyers come in... so they can get whacked. Of course, the FED rescuing the Market like a dad saving his spoiled son doesnt do anyone favors except the insiders. The normal hard working people like ourselves tend to be the victims...
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Somehow...I lose money again...
Well, not setting stops has been a habit hard to break... FXP got smashed today...as did LVS puts...
Anytime FXP touches 80, it seems to go right back down... I thought about switching to USO... but having come off a 16 1/2 hour nightshift, i fell asleep... itʻs a good thing most of my $ was in FXP and not in options... i live too fight another day
I do not like how quick Tech bounced...i hope for it to red out come friday. basically because i want AAPL flat prior to Mr. Jobs keynote... if i miss here, then iʻll strictly stay ETFs for the year...
Tim was right on the other day about a huge bounce. As likely a number of pros who got out yesterday before this humangous bounce. Iʻm glad my Portfolio B still remains in wait.
But in the end my not taking these signals cost me... no doubt there are times ahead the market will be down. itʻs a matter of cashing that in.
Iʻm stuck in yet another bad position...Mr. Bee mentions that Bearish times are indeed ahead POST-EARNINGS!
all in all not a good day...and yet good days are ahead...
Congrats to TIM (sold b4 bounce), GIO (on GRMN), and somewhat to FLY (he seems to either get it right huge or miss bad, i.e. FXP. HOWEVER, he always wins...)
FED talks tomorrow. So EVERYONE is expecting a rate cut... if he misses Wall Stʻs expectations. Weʻre right back down again
Anytime FXP touches 80, it seems to go right back down... I thought about switching to USO... but having come off a 16 1/2 hour nightshift, i fell asleep... itʻs a good thing most of my $ was in FXP and not in options... i live too fight another day
I do not like how quick Tech bounced...i hope for it to red out come friday. basically because i want AAPL flat prior to Mr. Jobs keynote... if i miss here, then iʻll strictly stay ETFs for the year...
Tim was right on the other day about a huge bounce. As likely a number of pros who got out yesterday before this humangous bounce. Iʻm glad my Portfolio B still remains in wait.
But in the end my not taking these signals cost me... no doubt there are times ahead the market will be down. itʻs a matter of cashing that in.
Iʻm stuck in yet another bad position...Mr. Bee mentions that Bearish times are indeed ahead POST-EARNINGS!
all in all not a good day...and yet good days are ahead...
Congrats to TIM (sold b4 bounce), GIO (on GRMN), and somewhat to FLY (he seems to either get it right huge or miss bad, i.e. FXP. HOWEVER, he always wins...)
FED talks tomorrow. So EVERYONE is expecting a rate cut... if he misses Wall Stʻs expectations. Weʻre right back down again
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Struck Gold!!! Well, Not me...
Right across the board gold related stocks bucked the trend. Have we bottomed? A guy named Tim is convinced weʻre in for a short-term bounce.
Back to gold. GG, AU, AUY, ABX, NEM GFI... take your pick (calls)... u made $$$ today
My previous post regarding hotels - all fell HOT, HET, LVS, MGM, (btw, wrong tickers for La Quinta not "LQI" and Extended Stay not "ESA")... Thus my meager LVS is "putting" a little $ in my Portfolio A.
Obviously Tech: AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, et al stunk it up... which i like... for now
INDEX: IWM if it falls past 70 thatʻs it... put buying fiesta (not necessarily in IWM)
Tomorrow holds no eco news just more opportunities to create confusion. Gio has been kind enough to nudge me to trade my hypothetical views (without having told me to do so). My paranoia in losing even more $ has served me well thus far, but i click on the execution button with a heightened sense of getting out (preserving profits). Unfortunately, my funds are in a state where i am unable to day-trade (if my levels stopped) since it would flag to my account. However, I find my picks more in focus than last year.
Back to gold. GG, AU, AUY, ABX, NEM GFI... take your pick (calls)... u made $$$ today
My previous post regarding hotels - all fell HOT, HET, LVS, MGM, (btw, wrong tickers for La Quinta not "LQI" and Extended Stay not "ESA")... Thus my meager LVS is "putting" a little $ in my Portfolio A.
Obviously Tech: AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, et al stunk it up... which i like... for now
INDEX: IWM if it falls past 70 thatʻs it... put buying fiesta (not necessarily in IWM)
Tomorrow holds no eco news just more opportunities to create confusion. Gio has been kind enough to nudge me to trade my hypothetical views (without having told me to do so). My paranoia in losing even more $ has served me well thus far, but i click on the execution button with a heightened sense of getting out (preserving profits). Unfortunately, my funds are in a state where i am unable to day-trade (if my levels stopped) since it would flag to my account. However, I find my picks more in focus than last year.
LVS...
"Putting" some $ to work with LVS March puts after selling a few FXPs(which i shoulda sold @80)... Technical bounce today... Gio suggested i couple LVS trade with MPEL. But there is little if no action there. It has been awhile since i bought any options... So, the only $ involved is in my portfolio A. I still have a smidge of AKAM Feb put as well.
He suggested GRMN as well...if it fails to break above the last high i may jump in there as well.
I remain conservative in my risk.
So far this year I have missed the can't go wrong puts in line with the jobs report and MON earnings report (RIMM was in December but it felt like just a few weeks ago, where i planned to buy calls with the intention of switching to puts the next day).
So, I will await AAPL action next week. This week may very well have a bounce as all the pros are saying. But thereafter is another deal.
He suggested GRMN as well...if it fails to break above the last high i may jump in there as well.
I remain conservative in my risk.
So far this year I have missed the can't go wrong puts in line with the jobs report and MON earnings report (RIMM was in December but it felt like just a few weeks ago, where i planned to buy calls with the intention of switching to puts the next day).
So, I will await AAPL action next week. This week may very well have a bounce as all the pros are saying. But thereafter is another deal.
Monday, January 7, 2008
Too Late
at the last moment i tried to get some HET puts (not much action) but market closed just prior to my order. I was looking into some Janʻ09puts with a strike @75
this ugly (i mean the literal picture not performance) chart shows the cyclical nature of the stock. Peaks around May/June... and itʻs back down again
the only thing is, maybe the recession could cause enough gamblers to flood the casinos to hit the big one. of course, that aint happening...the HOUSE always wins.
this ugly (i mean the literal picture not performance) chart shows the cyclical nature of the stock. Peaks around May/June... and itʻs back down again
the only thing is, maybe the recession could cause enough gamblers to flood the casinos to hit the big one. of course, that aint happening...the HOUSE always wins.
Confused Today... PREDICTION!
Iʻm a little unsure as to why FXP went down... itʻs big names for the most part remained flat if not in the negative. All the pro blog traders noted a technical bounce today. but in the end the trend for the day is in the red.
i am really missing the boat on a bunch of stocks being shorted/sold. but in the end my being conservative is what will allow me to participate in a more meaningful way down the road.
Solars are getting whacked today. a buy here? not for me...yet... FSLR actually got an upgrade today.
PREDICTION!
I am totally thinking the travel industry as a whole will be getting worse... They have already been pounded last year. A good thing for those of us wanting a cheaper place to stay. That unfortunately will have a domino affect especially for places like Hawaii...and Florida. It goes without saying that the airline industry will fare the same if not worse though they are already at their lows
Hotel stocks i am checking out...
Higher End: rich people will still travel, but even rich people can lose money
-FS, HLT, MAR
Mix of both
-HOT (already at itʻs 52 wk low)
Low End: these are the places where most of us are staying
-LQI, ESA
Casinos
-LVS, MGM, HET, BYD, MGM (of these LVS & MGM are still heading lower, HET trades at a narrow range... but if it breaks 70 i am buying puts. i am hesitant to touch LVS & MGM.
i am really missing the boat on a bunch of stocks being shorted/sold. but in the end my being conservative is what will allow me to participate in a more meaningful way down the road.
Solars are getting whacked today. a buy here? not for me...yet... FSLR actually got an upgrade today.
PREDICTION!
I am totally thinking the travel industry as a whole will be getting worse... They have already been pounded last year. A good thing for those of us wanting a cheaper place to stay. That unfortunately will have a domino affect especially for places like Hawaii...and Florida. It goes without saying that the airline industry will fare the same if not worse though they are already at their lows
Hotel stocks i am checking out...
Higher End: rich people will still travel, but even rich people can lose money
-FS, HLT, MAR
Mix of both
-HOT (already at itʻs 52 wk low)
Low End: these are the places where most of us are staying
-LQI, ESA
Casinos
-LVS, MGM, HET, BYD, MGM (of these LVS & MGM are still heading lower, HET trades at a narrow range... but if it breaks 70 i am buying puts. i am hesitant to touch LVS & MGM.
Friday, January 4, 2008
Another Opportunity...
Well had i gone ahead and bought LVS puts i would be having a nice day... especially had i previously bought MON.
Alas, the could have been is an exercise in futility. My portfolio at this point is boring. But itʻs staying positive. (thx, FXP). I am trying to gather list of recession stocks that bank... not just remain bullet-proof. I cant base my whole world around FXP (or SKF/SRS) and AAPL. well, maybe i could...
Happy note for me is that Tech took a dive. I seriously want AAPL to keep taking blows leading up to MacWorld. Then again, it was exacerbated by Mr. Moritz of TheStreet.com. He has a knack for finding unfounded info that blasts AAPL. He claims yet another supplier citing a slowdown in orders from AAPL. Did he ever thought that AAPL may actually have something of a design change? Anyway, I would have liked a slower fall than one like today that can cause a reflex pop. Either way, all this bad news prior to MacWorld is what i want.
I was tipped yesterday to start putting GRMN, talk about an over-priced stock. There may be a bounce somewhere next week, especially if Big Ben saves the bulls. IWM should be on our radars... if it dips below 70... the bears will indeed rule at least the first Q or 2 of 2008 (w/a possible bull run @ years end).
Finally, a safer play may be USO call options. January 10 & 11 have a bunch of oil related news, not to mention: housing, consumer credit, more jobless data, and Trade balance. Really, next week is another bull killing week.
Intuitive, Tim, FLY, Bee... all have similar perspectives... and thatʻs scary... if you are indeed a bull
Alas, the could have been is an exercise in futility. My portfolio at this point is boring. But itʻs staying positive. (thx, FXP). I am trying to gather list of recession stocks that bank... not just remain bullet-proof. I cant base my whole world around FXP (or SKF/SRS) and AAPL. well, maybe i could...
Happy note for me is that Tech took a dive. I seriously want AAPL to keep taking blows leading up to MacWorld. Then again, it was exacerbated by Mr. Moritz of TheStreet.com. He has a knack for finding unfounded info that blasts AAPL. He claims yet another supplier citing a slowdown in orders from AAPL. Did he ever thought that AAPL may actually have something of a design change? Anyway, I would have liked a slower fall than one like today that can cause a reflex pop. Either way, all this bad news prior to MacWorld is what i want.
I was tipped yesterday to start putting GRMN, talk about an over-priced stock. There may be a bounce somewhere next week, especially if Big Ben saves the bulls. IWM should be on our radars... if it dips below 70... the bears will indeed rule at least the first Q or 2 of 2008 (w/a possible bull run @ years end).
Finally, a safer play may be USO call options. January 10 & 11 have a bunch of oil related news, not to mention: housing, consumer credit, more jobless data, and Trade balance. Really, next week is another bull killing week.
Intuitive, Tim, FLY, Bee... all have similar perspectives... and thatʻs scary... if you are indeed a bull
Thursday, January 3, 2008
So what now?
Jobs report... yada yada yada...
the market holds it's breath for these things.
My FXP continues trudging along. as you know gov't forces may corrupt my main ETF. i may switch to SKF.
i can't keep my eye off of hotels...LVS, Et al.
Not much to say otherwise...i'll be posting earnings dates of significan movers. I think stock selection will need to be more precise this year than most.
the market holds it's breath for these things.
My FXP continues trudging along. as you know gov't forces may corrupt my main ETF. i may switch to SKF.
i can't keep my eye off of hotels...LVS, Et al.
Not much to say otherwise...i'll be posting earnings dates of significan movers. I think stock selection will need to be more precise this year than most.
MON... a winner...Me...nevermind
MON was on the radar... and the pop in the stock at the end of the trading day said it all. I was looking at it til the last 30 seconds. props to all those who went all in... Iʻm looking to get some dips if this stock continues upward... competitor SYT is up as well, in now out from under the radar and should grab attention in the next few weeks. we will see if how options boards respond.
So, despite all the recession talk... this bodes well for companies that are rock solid
FXP is tipping down for now...but itʻs a winner in my book. AAPL & FSLR... maybe GOOG...
Oh, one last thing. buy your puts in LVS or vacation hotels, etc. if the recession does indeed hit. No ones taking a vacation anytime soon.
So, despite all the recession talk... this bodes well for companies that are rock solid
FXP is tipping down for now...but itʻs a winner in my book. AAPL & FSLR... maybe GOOG...
Oh, one last thing. buy your puts in LVS or vacation hotels, etc. if the recession does indeed hit. No ones taking a vacation anytime soon.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Chicken...I am...
Well, MON was not a position got in on with the overall view of the market is grim. so, i left FXP as my lone position. if anything, MON would serve as a point of reference in stocks that buck a bearish trend. true, no one made money sitting on the side... but one doesnt lose money either.
My lone bull in view comes up on Jan 15. otherwise, iʻm leaning on weak stocks to get weaker than the overall movement of the market prior to that date.
Oh, and we shall see if oil stays above 100. if so, USO calls have been a winner last year (of which i totally missed the boat)
My lone bull in view comes up on Jan 15. otherwise, iʻm leaning on weak stocks to get weaker than the overall movement of the market prior to that date.
Oh, and we shall see if oil stays above 100. if so, USO calls have been a winner last year (of which i totally missed the boat)
Earnings (MON)
Today calls for patience. FOMC minutes @ 2p.m. EST. I hope to find a dip in MON today going into tomorrows earnings. I hope to place a small call position. i am not gonna get too technical. itʻs still not overhyped (100% above 200 EMA). it implies a bullish outlook and coincides with my belief that Ag is a strong buy in this market (prior to summer, then itʻs back to energy).
GPN also reports. itʻs been trading sideways for basically through the more volatile sessions. it is worth looking at for somewhat of an interesting trade based on the chart. i dont know much except that they are related to credit transactions. so, i think iʻll stay out. but i will watch and learn.
GPN also reports. itʻs been trading sideways for basically through the more volatile sessions. it is worth looking at for somewhat of an interesting trade based on the chart. i dont know much except that they are related to credit transactions. so, i think iʻll stay out. but i will watch and learn.
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