SELLS & BUYS

SOLD:
MAR aug25put@2.3 (20% gain, sold near high)
HK sept50call@5.6 (sold too early, got jittery $30 profit, being careful)
LEH july5put@.24 (got back this 100% loss for a 5% loss)

BOUGHT:
USO aug117call@6.7 (broke to new high and confirmed/closed to new high)
LEH aug12.5put@3.5 (if FNM/FRE can go this low all financial can...)

Solid Hold:
HOT aug30put... held up. bought it back@.76 - reached a new option high 1.25 - nice but after MARs earnings I think HOT may have some bad news coming as well. I may sell into earnings and reposition day before... just to keep that profit.
RHT jan12.5put... its has time and bad fundamentals.

Jittery Hold:
RIMM july95put:if GOOG sinks... well there you go, i considered this a loss last week
GOOG aug400put: i saw it gain 100+ points its last earnings. who said it cant lose that much and more.
PLCN july80put: up in value, but no volume - basically worthless

I didnt have time to research much. I had a very important convention to go to today. Someone asked me about setting up for iPhone debut, i was like, nope... However, the energy sector has got back its mojo (altho i sold HK, missed a bigger profit and would have re-entered, but i was pressed for time today)

All in all uneventful, but profitable & disciplined. Opportunities for bigger profit, but i wasnt going to get up at 325am to participate.

OIL (USO )kicks butt again/AAPL iPhone/HK ʻalamoʻ

I actually saw it beginning to breakout but didnt jump in... it broke from 111 and propelled to 114 and i showed it to my wife this morning... it happened in <1 minute... amazing. If USO crosses 116 i will be there ready...

AAPL will have some bragging rights depending on how many iPhone 3Gs are actually sold tomorrow (in some countries today). You better believe i will place a strangle in there with a bullish bias depending on iPhone numbers. I never expected people in Europe and Asia to camp out for these things.

HK is my lone position that is profitable, i actually caught this thing prior to its second to the last rally of the day. (The rest of my portfolio total about $100 loss, not bad it could have been worse) HK can get to 50 easier now with Oil on its side. Interestingly, even when oil initially head down with other energy securities, HK broke to a new high. So, if anything, it will be one of the last energy positions standing (remember the Alamo). Look to HK and buy dips... during a trading session. I have that call going into Sept.

I have a little unusual position on HOT & MAR. The news cant get any better going forward for them. But I worry that my going with August puts leave little room for volatility...

I have packed weekend so no trading tomorrow. Setting a couple sell stops...

SOLD DIA put

I have not made a buck on DIA puts. The one time it showed green on my screen (last week), i didnt know it was a short session (July 3). I wont be getting DIA any time soon. It may be good to buy at sessions end as it is hovering at these levels and sell at sessions open the next day, but i am cutting my loss here...

Sold
CHL aug65put
DIA aug111put

So my positions include thus far:
-holding pattern
RHT jan12.5put
RIMM july95puts (will cut this loser soon)
GOOG july400put (my spec)

bought today
HOT aug30puts (hopefully works out based on MAR)
MAR aug25puts (better late than never, hopefully)
HK sept50call (lone bull for now)

Cash... i wont go all in... if this was all bonus money than sure... but i am still the average dude trying to pay of my debt.

I KNEW IT... DONT HAVE TO BE A GENIUS TO FIGURE IT OUT: MAR/HOT and USO/HK(again)

Well MAR dropped as expected, and the sick part is I wasnt part of the put buying. I am not allowing that to happen with regard to HOT which also dropped on MARs earnings and guidance.

Bought
HOT aug30puts@.75. It may at least double in the time prior to earnings on July 24.
MAR aug25puts@1.9 It may be later than expected, but it has more downside DESPITE the chart saying bottom. Either way, why didnt i buy both these puts earlier?

Oh, Oil is oversold mind you. It will get to $140. If it crosses $146 back up your truck...

HK... i wished i kept that call... anyway, i switched out my small CHL put for an HK sept50call.

Check this out... CIR

Interesting to say the least. But no options... so i have no buying interest. if you are one to short everything in the sun, this is an interesting play because i mean cmon they sell valves and fittings for fluid control products in the USA. anyway, they must be good at what they do.

Put buying... Argh! forgot to buy MAR!

BOUGHT PUTS:
GOOG aug400put (450 pm EST)
DIA aug111put (452 pm EST)
CHL aug65put (456 pm EST)

So how did i forget to buy MAR!!! They report before market opens tomorrow... But i have been squawking about this one in the past and now that the time has come i forget to buy puts... ridiculous!!!

The Casinos got whacked today... didnt pay attention again... too many ʻoptionsʻ

Anyway, Bear Market/Bear Market/Bear Market... i dont know what bottom some are calling but it aint here yet. I have be content with my positions and not cry about missing MAR. GOOG may pay out in spades if Tim is right on again... He has featured RIMM & PCLN when they were barely showing bear signs. I will give a mucho grande props for him if he is right on with GOOG. They report July 17 after market closes, i may buy some puts that day, but we shall see how this week goes til then with what i have.

Btw, if $oil/barrel crosses <130 i am buying puts in USO... I may try my IYR theory again

SOLD!!! Most of everything... Reassess

Sold:
HK Sept45call 23% gain (4-ish am HST)
IPI Aug60call 20%+ gain (4-ish am HST)
DUG Aug35call 39% loss (glad i sold)
IYR Sept58put 44% loss (sold too soon)

The last sell (IYR) i just plain gave up, but as it turns out it looks like it may get ITM soon. So, sold off a bit prematurely. The same could possibly be said for IPI but a profit is a profit and it looks like my wins outweigh my losses so far today.

Will reposition portfolio at sessions end. Oil is still unstable, but it still keeps a cap on rallies.

So, i have a couple things to consider: buy IYR puts again, USO deep ITM calls, HK calls, GOOG far puts (Tim), and some other stuff...

Currency ETFs

$US vs Euro: FXE, ERO
$US vs Pound: FXB, GBB
$US vs Yen: FXY
$US vs $Canadian (my favorite to possibly short): FXC
$US tracker: ITPS, UUP(bullish), UDN (bearish)

The options on these are boring, but if one would like to position for the rate hike here you go...

I am going back to sleep. Night shift stinks that way... but hey, I have a job, so I aint complaining...

Brought Back Old Friends

IYR theory is so far a failure (thx to Ben handing out our tax money), in fact I tried to sell the thing.

Bought: IPI Aug60call, HK Sept45call

i am back in the Ags & coal. Why? Because my bear portfolio is going to get whacked tomorrow I needed to hedge and jump into this rally... tho i think it will be short lived...

So, I got
2 bulls: IPI & HK
5 bears: IYR, RIMM, PCLN, RHT, DUG

I have no idea what happens tomorrow, Long term bear, short term big mean bull with 25K horns

Whew

Well, Sold DIA puts early in the session. 5% loss. I learned from USO yesterday to sell close to break even if the trend is broken.

Looked to buy OIH puts but didnt...
Bought DUG Aug35call (maybe bought too early)
Still holding: PCLN july100put, RIMM july100put (probably zero out), IYR sept58put, RHT jan12.5put

The rest is in cash...

I really dont know if energy gets a massive bounce, but it is certainly possible. That includes Oil, however breaking <$140 is a psychological barrier...

Anyway, i have little confidence in this market even tho for now it is green. i may buy at sessions end...
btw, wish i bought them VMW puts - talk about a payday.

Like I Said, "Oil run over for now"...But Didnt Expect a collapse. FED and DIA

You bet i am happy i got out of Oil/USO yesterday. Grabbing a short/put position was not part of the plan (unfortunately).

And now the FED wants to lend more of our tax money to the greedy lenders. Ridiculous. My DIA puts are going nowhere...

Oil...SOLD USO, its run Over for now... WHERE to go from here? Rate Hike Related...

OIL
Oil has gone up primarily from the FED cutting rates. Couple that with Natural Disasters and crazy middle east stuff and you got an unusual supply demand thing going on... Today was an example when all those legs broke today... likely rate hike, hurricane will miss a supplier, and Iran/Israel talking agreement... bam! Oil down >$5 at one point.

Of course, Oil will still trend higher. but pressure on oil is greater. the natural disasters and middle east conflict can always send oil higher, but we may not find it on the nice reliable trend of late.

SOLD USO
Anyway, I sold my lone USO CALL @20% loss. Pretty much erased my profit from last week... yet, better to cut it than risk losing more. I missed that exit today with a 5% loss, but learned some stuff today. same goes for DIA puts (i am holding) i had a chance to bank some coin. would-ah, could-ah, should-ah. A profit is a profit... and the time i spent on all this is the bummer part of it. The Credit Crisis i thing though is upon us again and couple that with the FED raising rates and trouble looms...

I may buy USO again, it is just a matter of what is going on at the time... right now, nope...

INTEREST RATE HIKE...
If we are indeed set for an interest hike, imagine all those living it up on credit. Even the publishers clearing house sweepstakes spokesman guy (Ed), filed for bankrupcy, he was a mulitmillionaire! The US is filled with other people who are not poor yet are basically broke...

WHERE $ Might FLOW...
I think it is time to short real estate again. financials have been pounded to pieces already. it is back to real estate... SRS is an example of what is possible from here...


IYR chart on the other hand make you think this has bottomed...


But where is the actual the bottom?


So @313 pm EST, i bought IYR Sept58put@3.79...Rationale?
If we keep getting an interest rate increase (stem inflation), where are people going to get their loans to live? Is the ʻbankruptʻ government going to step in again? How about all those greedy banks/brokers/agents... all your homes will be worth"less"... "Less" in that you will have no one to sell them to and YOU are stuck like everyone else. Sure you will have more money than Joe Blow, but you will be buying food with him at 7 Eleven...

US DOLLAR...
So rate hike means stronger dollar... and yet the US Economy stinks. I dont know about trading $US versus other currencies. I will have to investigate that further...
By the way, i am all in for a stronger $US, i have a trip possibly coming up next year in Europe. I need a stronger $US in the worst way...

Missed My Exit... USO calls/DIA puts

Shoulda: sold USO call when it failed to break green...
Shoulda: sold DIA @meager profit and reset for tomorrow at sessions end...
Shoulda: waited on that IYR put... just threw more money at mother market without getting paid...

Now i am staring at USO screen... waiting for that dumb exit that might have past...

I DECLARE! OIL will not be a bull (for now). I shall post later on this...

(UPDATE 356pm EST: Sold USO call)

Agonizing....USO call/DIA put... bought PCLN put. Considering Real Estate Short/Put

The $Oil/barrel is recovering but USO isnt exactly cooperating... I am still hanging tight.

DIA put are safer, but my small profit is being wiped out... what a waste...

PCLN. Better late than never, bought July80put

SRS on a small breakout (and IYR breakdown)... they will play nice and may return big if interest rates do indeed increase, thereby destroying any chance for the borrower to well... borrow... losing their home (if they havent done so already) AND car, etc really anything bought off credit.

Did I mention credit report tomorrow? Maybe that will tip things farther (pretty much what I hoped Unemployment would do) against the Index, specifically the Dow. I will not go against the NAZ (yet), AAPL got some news that might zero out the bad news.

AAPL cart... Oil... IWM

Glanced at some other blogs of dudes a lot more intelligent than me. AAPL has been suggested as going on the short list. The technical tend to agree with the channel high 170s to low mid 160s. The long term put is much safer - as the longer trend shows it heading to 120... its solid base before double digits.

HOWEVER, the pent up news coming July 11 is something of note. iPhone release day. I am one who does not own one nor wants one (yet). but people have already been standing in line for these things and the number of those interested since the price cut is unbelievable (update 8am HST: UK is SOLD OUT of iPhone 3G before it is even released). so anyone shorting AAPL just prior to July 11 and out of the 160-178 range BE VERY careful. Price spikes in AAPL is something wicked that can eat you alive (i have lost on both the call/put side...)

Oil has somewhat recovered and kept to the 140ʻs. I didnt sell my lone USO call, just thought about it. Of course, had i NOT owned it (which was supposed to happen with a sell on a holiday Thursday session, i would have bought it up again...)

IWM must have rewarded a few people today. Unlike DIA & SPY, this thing moves in a big way. it is near its 52 wk low @65. So, much care is needed in puts/shorts

Confused...

Oil per barrel is @<140. Do i jump ship? Or is this one of those back up the truck kind of thing.

As for the general market, the VIX looks like it has a spiked a bit just a little past 1230 EST. So my DIA puts are going to work.

And GLD specifically is spiking... do i switch from oil to gold? confused...

Oil Getting Pounded - I expect I will be too... Wait til Tuesday

Well, it seems like there will be a break for the bulls... Iran says they can negotiate something regarding their nuclear program. Unfortunate for me, I am ʻstuckʻ with USO call (which i intended to sell last thursday, but didnt know it was a half day of trading). Now i am in a position where my USO call may be blown to pieces and a hard bull run/rally may hit my DIA puts (i also intended to sell at least half that position on thursday). My RIMM puts will likely get blown to pieces as well...

In the end this coming session would have been an awesome time to buy USO. but instead i am ʻstuckʻ. I can only watch helplessly. DIA has time on its side with they being Sept puts. But RIMM/USO July options that expire next week - yikes! I may be in huge trouble....

We shall see... i doesnt make any sense for me to wake up 3am to watch my portfolio get pounded...

OIl... runs the market... i was at a ʻbonfireʻ recently... watch that thing burn for some time. looks like i am going to watch my portfolio burn too...

Oh yeah... one thing the bulls will fear is Tuesday... Credit Crisis (again)

Sold HK puts (triggered)/Upcoming Week

I had to go to sleep... It was like 345am. the thing is i missed HK getting even lower. so, again left some $ on the table. But sell stop was set obviously too low. anyway, missed another 100%+ gain - ahem 350% to be exact. I will be content with a 33% gain.

In any case, i didnt know it was an abbreviated day to trade. I wanted to switch out my DIA puts for more USO calls.
We will see what the coming week of news will bring.

July 8 consumer credit/housing sales
July 9 crude inventories - AGAIN?
July 11 trade balance (not so clear cut indicator for US economy)

On hold
RIMM July100puts (i am trashing this next week)
RHT Jan12.5puts
USO july113calls (i expect some fireworks on monday not July 4)
DIA sept112puts (wish i sold half the position today)

Unemployment Still Bad But Not Worse, Now what?

USO premarket with a has a sell off taking place...
DIA premarket in the green...

Bounce?

Anyway, I have decisions to make. Do I sell off everything?
Well, selling off USO might be a good idea at the open, then re-enter later. Mr Paulson has no idea how to fix oil prices. Its because he cant! He is part of the problem. He is making dough with the oil cartel.

Unemployment is steady... or as expected. 62K. Not sure exactly how they got the number.
So, regarding index puts, i really dont know how strong either way it will open. I do have time on my side regardless. I almost hope today stays flat so i can hold my index options next week. Thing is i want to cut any loses from a possible bounce...

Plan Sticks... Furious Closing Buys

Bought:
(1022 am EST) HK july35puts@0.10 (reaction buy from seeing the coal sector crash all around it, while it broke out 2nd day in a row)

(1102 am EST) USO july113call@5.30 (no spike after crude inventory, but supply suggest USO goes higher wanted it confirmed green before buying)

(356 pm EST) DIA sept112puts@4.70 (thought of july/aug but wanted to protect from a possible rally)

(350ish pm EST) "accidently" bought x3 DIA shares (was trying for puts, not good to be trading when barely awake) so I sold it at a loss... trading 2 interfaces (AMTD & SCOTT not a good idea for someone who slept <2 hours) threw away $15. you are welcome Scottrade. My bad...

Held:
RHT jan12.5put (boring, but i see it happening)
RIMM july95puts (this shuda been the 250+% gain the other day)

Well, if there was anything i might have done differently, it would have been to go with a heavier lean on USO calls. But DIA puts work for me too, specific for unemployment news tomorrow. The thing is there is no ʻguidanceʻ or forecast attached to unemployment numbers but any surprise of lower numbers could blow up my puts. Also maybe I should have bought one IWM put... IWM surely returns better than DIA but i digress.

To sum it up got an Oil call/with a coal hedge in the form of HK puts and Index puts in the form of DIA. Pretty much ʻstuckʻ to my plan that I posted on sunday with the exception of when i actually entered all my index puts today rather than one on Tuesday and one today. HK puts was a bonus.. I still left some to cash (cant get greedy).

HK and GMXR are en fuego! Bought HK puts

Man i really regret selling that Aug45call 2+ weeks ago...

Anyway, i am actually trying to buy a put ahead of crude numbers. Missed the dirt cheap July35puts@.05 and got in @.10
Almost all the other coals are down... but HK is either unstoppable or squeezing out the last energy bears. It will be my insurance hedge on energy.

Index Focus on DIA

Why DIA? Because there is a large amount of energy stocks in the S&P, though it also has a bunch of Financials as well. But DIA... to be honest, it provides the clearest of all things market wise for my limited knowledge. someone out there correct me... I dont like QQQQ puts or QID because of strength from AAPL. Nor do i like IWM, too volatile for me.

The technical DJI graph i posted a few days back still says we continue in this downward channel...SEE "OIL AND $INDU" (6/26/08)... That being said, I am still waiting for a bounce, which i guess will happen today.

There was a report regarding high unemployment may lead to the FED cutting rates yet again... which of course adds to the Oil rally (again).

So I have focused my attention on the following with 1030am EST in mind:
USO calls, RDC calls, HK calls, PCLN puts, DIA puts, GG calls, RIMM puts

Few Notes... Tech... Oil pressure

Tech has formed a short term base for a rally. BUT a follow through may very well be dependent on pressures from energy (oil news) and a weak US$(euro-union to raise rates?)

AAPL & RIMM each made a $10 turn around. However, RIMM after hours showed another sell off with profit taking and a few bulls finding a sell point/take their loss.

The run up for AAPL is also related to the iPhone release and earnings on July 21. Some wonder if AT&T has indeed subsidized the iPhone, meaning a guaranteed pay out to Apple. So, although I will refuse to participate (until a base is formed >205), AAPL may very well be in for a relief/sector rally.

I still think energy has some punches left. The trend is still for Oil to go higher the rest of the year. GW-Bush is still in charge... but patience is necessary

I will pay attention to the 1030am EST numbers... and set up ONE deep ITM index put for unemployment come Thursday as planned.

Mind you, if the unemployment numbers are better than expected we will get that mini rally the bulls have been begging for - otherwise its more Bears as usual. i may throw a call out there just in case..

Watchlist includes: USO, PCLN, HK, GG, RIMM, INDEXes (DIA, SPY, QQQQ, SDS)

A bit miffed... Missed a sell & Without a meaningful position at the moment

Well i HAD a plan to carry out today (like buying some SLW).... but slept right through it. My alarm was set on vibrate... just great (sarcasm)

Altho i gave AMTD much props for helping me this morning. I still forgot to sell my RIMM july100put position @ a 250% gain! because i didnt set a stop the day before! It will surely go to zero at this point... at the very least i would have sold for a loss today.

It seems as though i have no choice but to watch others have fun tomorrow. I will just have to join the action later. 430am HST. It will give me the first glimpse of possible positions... Energy might continue its run based on crude inventories tomorrow.

Also of interest is the fact that the people deciding on the Euro may actually raise rates on Thursday (July 3)... thereby weakening the US$ and strengthening Oil/Gold further. (FED did its job of weakening the US$, now others can join in maybe they are all in the same boat while Uncle George ʻOilʻ Bush is the prez)

Anyway, my planned positions for this week has basically worked out. Going to cash prior to crude numbers AND again prior to unemployment numbers on Thursday...

Correction Crude numbers tomorrow...

Anyway... i thought it was today. I was waiting for some fireworks. for now i will go to sleep. and wake up before the session ends. I am considering GG (thx Gio) for my gold and maybe HK(wish i held) & SLW (gold AND silver)

I think there is a bounce somewhere tomorrow. I some volatility related to the Crude numbers.

I may just go ahead and wait for that time to come... but we will see how the market finishes when i wake up in less than 2 hours...

AMTD is awesome... USO sold...

For the life of me i couldnt remember my additional security passwords when i am on a shared computer. i had to do a phone trade... like the 3rd in my life. the execution was instant. and she gave me the internet price for the trade.

she then helped me to have access with the computer i was using at work.

on top of that i had a solid sell (my minimum 15% gain) i got a market sell that 2 minutes later was no longer available on my USO july110call. it may very well run up til the crude numbers, but its fine with me. i was relieved not to have lost this one. bummer tho, i had an even greater gain if i remembered whether i did set my sell stops or not. Anyway...

PROPS to Ameritrade.

Other stuff...
PCLN keeps dropping. I refuse to chase... or enter until July 2 or the end of todays session.
i await numbers in about 1/2 an hour on crude. will wait for reaction and move into USO & HK, which may happen at sessions end.

Sold one/Missed selling other

Well, not exactly as planned... kinda break even-ish

Sold Palm Aug5put 100% gain... BUT...
Missed selling USO july111call (would have been 15% gain). I forgot to set my stops last night.

As for today. I didnt see anything that told me it was a good idea to enter an index put. Even though Auto/construction news comes tomorrow, the technicals suggest a rally. Which is good because I want cheaper puts.

Energy was a winner. Particularly HK & SFY. There are others of course.

I missed the BIG move in PCLN. Totally lost track of it. The put buy was this past Friday, after the confirmed bear close the past Thursday (7/26/08 from Tim). Chances are it firms up a bit from here. Their earnings report is in August. Depending on how it does this week, i may enter the position. But consider this a lost 100+% gain opportunity.

My eye is firmly fix tomorrow on Oil inventory numbers. If they are higher than expected, we will find a dip. If supply is lower than expected. I might need to get in there FAST... As the Bear perfect storm of high Oil and possibly damaging unemployment numbers come thursday.

For now i am holding Aug110call. Maybe we get another spike... who knows. Clarity after crude numbers @430am HST.
It really is simple...

WOW... HK/PCLN (90 minutes til bell)

HK breakout... PCLN breakdown.

HK is headed to 50s for sure.
PCLN is headed to double digits for sure. earnings report in August

I am waiting for the sessions end to decide, which positions to enter. Too many ʻoptionsʻ to consider...

Still holding
PALM Aug5put
RIMM July100put
USO July110call
RHT Jan12.5put

This Week (June 30 - July 3) Outlined Plan (Position for Eco news)

This week:
July 1: Auto Sales/Construction spending
July 2: Factory Orders/crude inventories
July 3: Unemployment rate

So here is my plan for this week...
June 30: See market sentiment
- hopefully there is a bounce, to get in cheaper index puts/shorts
- Auto/Construction may already be priced in, but get first index position

July 1: See how the market opens/market sentiment
- If auto/construction leaves market flat hold 1st index position (but take profit)
- leave my one call on oil if stays flat. but sell at profit
****crude inventories lately seem to be more than expected (greater supply)

July 2: i think there might be a dip in oil/energy it after crude numbers, dip in energy means possibly cheaper index puts.
- buy oil/energy after numbers released (4:30a HST) AND
- buy index puts/ultrashorts if have not done so already.
- i like DIA & SPY puts or SDS calls.
- IWM put maybe, it depends. The Russell is volatile and may close where it opened

July 3: Unemployment numbers are out early. It is worth my getting up (*sigh* 3:30a HST)
- SELL for PROFIT (especially security puts) if market tanks... otherwise, let it ride if it opens flat or even higher.
- If sold positions, Re-enter index puts/oil calls at end of session, uneasiness during the weekend may spur more selling the next week. it depends on what the Unemployment numbers are... mind you there are ALOT of people fired from brokerages houses, banks, airlines... but we shall see how it affects overall numbers.

To some it up, buy Oil/Energy dip (possibly July 2)
Buy Index put/shorts July 2...

Hmm maybe i should focus on July 2nd instead of July 3rd

SOLD yesterdays positions...

Woke up 330am HST... and quickly did the following...

SOLD my puts in QQQQ and calls in SDS...
i figured there would be a bounce later in the session. i then went to sleep...

Woke up 730am HST...
RIMM
the nice surprise was july100put at 100% gain @3:30am... BUT BROKE ONE OF MY RULES! Like a dummy i held it... so sold it break even 7:30am...(which was smart). i then re-entered with:
bought july95puts (which i failed to remove on my order, i could have got a cheaper limit, but got distracted looking at Coal) - i think it will be awhile before it goes double digits, so i am counting it a loss.

Held Red Hat jan12.5put... potential there
Held Palm aug5put... it was dirt cheap, couldnt resist.

BOUGHT USO July111call (7:30am HST)
-failed to add MORE to that USO position due to an error in my brokerage account. in any case i will have something on the side for Monday.

I briefly looked at PCX & HK. But i got locked out of my account... i will have to wait til monday. PCX is looking mighty good... if it crosses 165, the basic chart reader will need it to base out first before jumping in. On the other hand if it broke out HARD and kept its base... by all means be safe and do an ITM call.

Anyway, the disciplined trading has payed off thus far.
USO is the only definite position i have confidence in... Coal as well, but i dont own any of it. I will be content with the minor gains on a day that could have gone bad.

i am watching PCLN quite closely - it is too tied with Airlines not to look at...

July 3... 7/3... 3rd of July...

Here is a good idea from a perma bear

PCLN... you know capt Kirk commercials. kinda funny. but i am sure he wouldnt think this chart to be funny at all. why?

1) Fundamentals
- Airlines are not going to give anymore ʻcheapʻ tix or leave open seats for PCLN to sell.
2) Technicals
- you can eyeball its failed attempt to break 140 and see the candlestick highs line up perfectly DOWNWARD.

anyway... thx to Tim for this pick. its worth watching. look how low it can go...

OIL & $Indu

This is it... No more Oil going down any time this summer. I wish I left my USO Aug110call alone but... I was waiting for Oil to cross $140/barrel. It actually whacked 141 at the time of this post.

So, the plan is to basically go after another call strike on USO. catch this breakout... even if it is just a bit late...

We may have ourselves $150/barrel by July 4, as some have indeed suggested. Someone at the gas station today came out and told my wife and I that Gas will go up 10 cents tomorrow and that Oil will be $180 by the end of summer...
See, the media is feeding this to everyone now... old news if you follow investments.

Either way, even if there is a bounce tomorrow in general equities, Oil will suck them back down and then some and finally, Mr. Tim himself provided a strong Fib argument for a bounce in DJI or a.k.a. $INDU. He was worried about the Dow running into trouble with the 11,500 fib line... Well looks like it dropped right past it... We shall see how tomorrow goes, but I think some real bleeding in the markets will actually come July 3rd... people are really gonna get tired of that date

SOLD yesterdays puts TOO early...

I left a few bills on the table... but i wanted the profit... and move slightly to safety...

I sold USO when it was stuck around 111.... it shot up to 113 a 1/2 hour later

HOWEVER, the new positions have already posted at least a small gain or neutral... making up for commissions.

SOLD PUTS! and bought others... bounce concerns

SOLD:
Nke July55put for .55 (bought yesterday at .10 man shoulda bought 50 options, yeah right... )
DIA sept118put: Repositioned elsewhere
USO aug110call: not sure if Oil $/barrel will break past 140 just yet...
NCOC shares: gonna put my $ elsewhere next week...

Bought:
SDS sept63call: action gaining, hope they start bidding it up
QQQQ aug48put: get deeper ITM, tech will suffer more than other sectors
Palm july5put: you think RIMM was bad?
RIM july100put: i doubt it will get to 100 but worth a shot
funny i tried to get RIMM july90put ystrday for like .06 didnt want to pay .10, should have tried harder no?

RIMM puts were the definite winner of the day...
I am not throwing a parade... in fact I am a bit worried about my puts getting pounded if we get a little bounce tomorrow... I can thank Mr. Tim for that one. He sees support @ 11.5K for the Dow...

Anyway, i think the market may very will stink it up for awhile... remember the Morgan Stanley guy? He said, "Catastrophe in the near future..." Well, to be honest 11,500 for the Dow is still subject to bounce, however BELOW 11,500 then you will have the media saying, "How low can you go..."

Congrats RIMM ʻputʻters... and well everyone who shorted earnings

All them got varying degrees of smack
first up the only big name that reported during session: MON: > -3% (as much as -6%)

Then you have the after-hour crowd:
RHT: -0.85%
RIMM: > -7%
NKE: > - 5%
ORCL > -3%

lovely isnt it? For bears... who are we kidding here FED? In any case, I may not have been able get a put position in any of them, but i sure was able to do so via the one ʻputʻ for the general market. i did failed to get puts in NKE (retail is not where you want to be) & but did RHT jan12.5put. I think their proposed guidance will smack them...

RIMM gets the ʻdisappointed awardʻ usually given to AAPL when there is a run up to earnings.

Energy (namely coals) and Ags made a nice rebound. Of interest is PCX which looked mighty powerful! It did a huge 9% turn around. Now that we know where it was, we have an idea of where it could go from here 160+ (sept165call looks tempting). being that i do options i can wait for clear signals at that point. HK mustered itself to finish green. i will await it breaking 44 and go with the momentum from there.

The big news left that awaits July 3rd! Then the nation can celebrate (mourn) its economic situation on July 4. How nice, throwing away or in this case blowing up more money in the form of colorful fireworks... I dont celebrate July 4 myself, but if anyone out there does... you can see the irony in all of this... but excuse my sarcasm.

Well Here We Go Bought USO call/DIA put and sold DBA

A perfect storm may not be brewing but it is a weird position to enter. I bought the following with a time stamp for my ref in relation to the FED 2:15.
USO Aug110call (1:40 pm EST) wish i bought it when it touched 106+
DIA Sept118put (1:59 pm EST) not enough trading with SDS calls.

As expected no rate change planned. the minute charts are these straight vertical lines that almost cover the whole chart in a couple cases, volatile for sure. But we are still left with the question... Now what?

btw, i dont have enough capital for RIMM I will watch everyone else have fun with that. i wouldnt be surprised if it went either way. iPhone wont have its full affect til next year at the earliest on RIMM thx to that dumb AT&T deal. Apple missed out on T-mobile & Alcatal customers. Anyway, they still wouldnt have gotten Verizon & Sprint with their different type of frequencies. The US is dumb when it comes to mobile carriers. RIMM has done an awesome job covering EVERY carrier possible in the US.

I Sold DBA (@2:11 pm EST too early yes...) but i couldnt help but see POT/MON/IPI/AGU, etc all taking hits today and not believe it would eventually catch up with DBA. so took a small loss... with the thought of using it next week...

US Crude Oil... then eventually the FED

So, inventories came in higher than expected in the U.S. And No strike in Nigeria.

USO getting pounded as is actual $oil/barrel

Next set up for today is in about 3 hours... the FED.

This is the most I have watched the market in awhile...

RIMM

It is getting whacked despite the NASDAQ being up... What a nice set up for a possible surprise earning... but one would be careful to venture in that direction prior to the FED.

Economic Clarity is needed to position for earnings.

Crude numbers should have been out by now... oh well waiting continues. back to work.

(update 509a HST: RIMM finds a first bounce on a low of 137+)

Predictable Bounce

So here was the bounce i was waiting for on Monday.

MON is getting pounded at the time of this post as well as all Shorts/bears.

The first part of the fun stuff begins in a few minutes with Crude Oil inventory numbers.

Posting again as able... i am after all at work (night shift)

DJI daily... weekly... is weAkly

So here is the Dowʻs daily... it has been trading under the 200 MA for some time now.


Now check out the weekly chart... either way some huge movement is coming soon.


Tomorrow could be a yawn if the FED holds rates. the thing is when they say any other stuff is the thing where things are uncertain. but what we do know is this...
If they indeed raise rates, Kaboom... maybe short your USO... but look out maybe you should short everything
If they cut rates, Kaboom get your USO!.
See, itʻs oil (and gold & the $US)... so what is new? NOTHING...

Argh!!!

I failed to get my first position. DIA Aug119put. And attempted to sell my Ag ETF in the form of DBA. didnt work either...

Anyway, the plan tomorrow is to position for a general fall in the market related to the FED. No one expects a rate cut announcement or plan. So why not position one call however unlikely it may be why not buy a DIA june122 or 123 call just in case with a DIA 120put for July, Aug or Sept... The same can be said for SPY & IWM. I am also looking at Sept/Dec 63call for SDS.

the point is i am looking to short indexes and the general market.
energy will still be a place of relative safety - altho i am down to only owning NCOC stocks... wish i sold them yesterday to position for what awaits tomorrow...

there happens to be a number of earnings reports tomorrow, namely RIMM, NKE, ORCL & MON. big names... the first three report after market closes. but i am more interested in waiting patiently for 2pm EST or 8am HST to plug in my market shorts... i may change my mind regarding everything above and lessen risk by buying Dec options instead...

ok i worked graveyard shift...back to sleep.

Bad News coming soon... (corrected after error)

Well, it is not like any bad news is a surprise. The thing is that if things are bad, but NOT AS BAD as the market expects - then we may have a small rally. Otherwise I think the following is worth positioning

News wise Wednesday... FED FOMC & housing
Thursday...... Oil inventories, GDP, home sales
Friday..... Inflationary numbers
Next week (July 3) is the big one... UNEMPLOYMENT. some say all the bad news is expected. So, what? Has it bottomed? Nope. (as an example UAL may be laying off hundreds of pilots!... people with 3 figures will no longer spend... logic)

so i have the following on my watch...
SDS calls, SRS calls, DIA & SPY puts...

In any case it is better to wait then hope to win a losing position...

(i had to fix this post as the news for this week were in error. I originally thought FED was today. nope...)

Another HK sold! PCX candlestick... RIMM... ADBE..

My last call with HK was triggered. 20% gain. Not bad at all... And I didnt decide in the moment. I might have held this longer had i not set a trigger, but my goals have become conservative with a view to preserving capital.

I will wait again for another entry. Patience is key for me...

PCX... hmm one candle stick pattern calls for three down days followed by a STRONG gap... we will see tomorrow. The other coals are on fire, it doesnt make sense to me why PCX wont follow the sector trend.


RIMM earnings reports June 25... after market. I am looking to do a ʻstrangleʻ. I really dont like tech right now, but the moves are quick and furious (altho it didnt work for me on ADBE puts, which btw has its 50 & 200 day MAʻs crossing last friday... going down from here i think.)

Whats Happened to PCX? SDS on hold...

Coal plays are green EVERYWHERE... but not for former leader PCX. Well, I am actually happy the call premiums were too expensive for me... but I still think it will head higher long term.

As for SDS, I didnt get a DOW pop that I was hoping for. It stands to reason that the weakness today has nothing to do with future credit/housing news... but Oil (again). sounds like a broken record/CD player...no no MP3 player...

There are a number of traders out there buying up RIG. I am content with HK. DBA though has slowed up, but may be due for a pop somewhere...

Looking For A Bounce & An Entry into an UltraShort

Well, the DOW closes down 200 last week. Under a somewhat important 12K level.
But as you know nothing goes straight down now does it. So this week I expect a strong bounce across the board. So am I bullish this week? Sure that is what the technicals say. HOWEVER, what I am really looking for is an entry to an ULTRASHORT, namely SDS.

The thing is I think the DOW will eventually head to *sarcastic gasp* below 11K by years end. So my thinking is an In the money SDS Dec55 or 60 call. Time and "catastrophic events" as Morgan Stanley puts it is very real... Unemployment numbers will not improve. There will be less vacationers out there to places like here (Hawaii: where the hotel occupancy has dropped).

SDS premiums are reasonable

Anyway, that is my main position I am looking at for the year. So, sure we get a bounce here and there. But it is when the floor that drops from under us that I am waiting for. (This is what Tim waits for, but it seems he waits for it like every other day)...

Oil/Energy/Ag will fill in the rest of the gaps for me. I still have HK & DBA long calls. I have 2 FXI puts that I bought ages ago, but it expires in January 2009.

Until the new president comes in, I think the economy numbers will stink up Wall Street and the reality of the recession will go full bore.

SOLD HK!

Mind you i should have woke up early this morning to get HK out. I left my Sept45call alone. But i took whatever profit was left on Sept40call. bummer it was up 60+% in like 2 days. wont happen again trust me. But for now the prudent move was preserving my position. HK i have questions as to it sticking here. But i saw it at 36 just 3 days ago... If it hangs here it should be ok. I am glad i didnt have a JULY call. That would have been disasterous if that is a word

DBA is still holding strong to its base

My eyes are still on PCX, HK, SKF, USO (channel continual)... and now IPI (bare 3 months old but look at it up 15% in one month).

I will let my rule hold... get some kind of profit from HK & DBA before speculating on something else. It is easier to lose money than to make it in this market. again... i will sell for quick profit from momentum stocks next time around...

Coal... Oil... and another new momentum...

They have this saying in one ʻpagan originated holidayʻ. I got coal in my stocking.

Well, i tell you that is kinda how i feel today. Oil up... Coal... well, more profit taking. (Gio did warn). Albeit I wish i cashed that 60% one day profit on one of my calls.

As for USO, it is definitely sticking to the channel. it is a buy here. but something no one should hold beyond another green day.

As for SKF. I am so bummed i dont have enough capital to get in there. i have been saying that it is a winner for the summer. *sigh*

Anyway, i will add today to my list of ways how not to trade... cash profits fast in momentum stocks like any other. especially into options expiration friday, which is a nice time to buy...

This summer will be kinda boring regarding sports(sorry baseball, i wait for penant/world series). Maybe Olympics. I think Kobe is has some angst to take out his frustration on the world. Pierce had a great NBA Finals. He should be on the Olympic team. Anyway, Kobe will reestablish himself. And all this comparison about him versus Jordan I think has finally stopped.

One last thing... IPI. There is another momentum stock for you...

Like I Said...Itʻs about the Oil... btw SKF may be a buy.

My failure yesterday to have gotten out of HK ITM meant some lost ground today. I am unsure as to what is going on with oil at this point. I still think there is a spike that will come somewhere. I am glad that I didnt get greedy and go for some short term calls.

It seems as the momentum stocks: coal/energy have some profit taking going on. For the most part their was some recovery, but their leader PCX took a whacking. I think it may be a buy at the end of Fridays session if it stays red. Is this a fakeout by the big guns? the Wall Street Mafia? maybe... But for the most part it is all about the oil... The trading range i observed (and posted something similar earlier) has been 132 to 135 if you are looking at a tight range, but it goes as far as 130 to 139.

i still have some cash... i aint touching it. Another opportunity awaits maybe as soon as Friday...

Dont get greedy... stay disciplined. Do i wish i cashed in the profit earlier? sure... but i am glad i have the calls a few months out to filter out my lack of... discipline... i may buy some USO puts to hedge my HK & DBA...

SKF looks good. i mean BSC executives in trouble with the Law... and MS predicting a catastrophic coming. Uh.. hello? Not it not new... Credit/housing/fuel... and watch out when a solid negative unemployment comes out... so for now, i think SKF may be the surest of the picks i have been watching... It too benefitted from Oil getting knocked around.

One more thing... AAPL

These analysts are nuts... Look at this latest iPhone figure being thrown out there... 150,000,000 in the next 10 years. Anyone can say that and have a theoretical chart/calculation to prove that theory. But common now, we are getting WAY ahead of ourselves.

I am not even sure the world as we know it will last that long to begin with (take that statement however you want.) I am tired of these analysts trying to MAKE news and manipulate stocks. but that is how it goes...

150 million? or 15 million every year the next 10 years sounds plausible... but it sure was made to grab some attention...

I refuse to touch AAPL until it crosses 200... well, firmly above 200, that is 205 to be exact...

Oil/Energy Strength... while PCX Amazing

I was really unsure at one point what to think of energy... I saw USO <108 (which i considered its base) being tested. A solid turn around to say the least. And I slept through the last 2 HR & 55 min of the market before doing the following. (5 minutes is too short of a time)

I added to my HK today. The thing is I tried to flip my ITM HK sept call to get enough capital for an entry into PCX, but alas my hands were too slow. I was only able to buy an OTM HK Sept45call. *sigh*

Mind you i still like HK this far out...But PCX is a monster (This years FSLR)! I say 200! But if I cannot get in Gio has given me a couple choices
That is NCOC & ICO (I like ICO because of the options of course), they are dirt cheap. But i wasnt quick enough to get in that one either.

I think i want to also add UNG to the mix somewhere down the line...

For now, consider it a nice bounce off a bottom for Oil. The real time (you see to your right) shows it pulling back a bit at the time of this post but, the $/barrel is solidifying itself above $135 (having been stuck 133 to 134 the last few sessions). It will have to break through 139 as the next resistance. From there $150 may be realized as some suggest by July 4. That is capitalism for yah.

FDX & MS Earnings & Oil/Energy

FDX well with gas prices up is anyone surprised? Puts would have been nice, but i have only so much capital to go around.

MS also stunk things up as well. Man i wish i did dip into SKF... It was a bit too pricey for me. but one might spec this goes past its 52 week high.

Oil inventories: 1030 am report will be the nail in the coffin for most stocks, unless you are in energy... Oil $/barrel is >135 as i type this.

Anyway, i may add to my HK, but will look elsewhere too...maybe CRK... i will be patient and wait for the actual crude report. There is much time to make moolah in energy...

Waiting... On PCX. HK/DBA solid for now. Oil tomorrow

Well, DBA & HK are working out nicely, wish a bought a couple more calls, but it is always a good idea to get a pay off before adding to risk. I missed Gioʻs earlier post on BTU (i was actually looking at that earlier this year), it is a favorite among coal plays.

ADBE & LEH were poorly timed, but had i waited to buy their puts just prior to earnings and farther out in time, i would have had a return.

CRK (as suggested by Gio) i noticed had solid technicals. you cannot dispute the chart. Compare FSLR last year with CRK this year and you can see where this is going.

In regards to PCX... there is some consolidating going on. the upside is real. Crude oil numbers will be out tomorrow... will see how it affects other energy related securities. But i need to find a way to get in PCX for sure... it has everything going for it, newly publicly traded, the $ are flowing into its sector, and the charts...

LAKERS play tonight. I think they will lose. But if they are going to take advantage of the Celtics aging/injured team then tonight is the night. I am tired of how the media keeps bringing up Gasol being soft (or maybe that is a good motivation thing) and how much the Celtics are banged up... Hey you dont see the Lakers crying over not having Bynum. The series would have been done by now if he was around. Would Garnett or Perkins be labelled soft if they were getting bulldozed by Bynum? Nope. They would say weight and strength advantage. That is all that is. I respect Doc Rivers for not complaining. He is a good coach. The Lakers have grown up ALOT this year. I expect them to bust their butts in the summer. Gasol should lift some weights... Everything else in his game is solid, he just needs to do more squats and upper body stuff to deal with the Power Forwards next year. I do predict that the Finals next year will be....

Celtics & Lakers again...

No sports to watch until September Football... Which is good - I have important stuff to get done until then.

Argh!!! Couldnt Pull the Trigger

That USO <109 kept staring at me... nope "not gonna do it". It was EXTREMELY tempting to position for a bottom channel entry. Looking at the 5 day chart, USO could actually get whacked tomorrow.

ADBE did ok. So, no bear parade there. LEH, yawn...

DBA & HK are small negatives for me at this point. We will see what happens come June 18... there will either be a breakout for oil or at worse it flattens off the rest of the summer.

Oil...Channel...

If you bought at the close yesterday and proceeded to put a sell order today... congrats to you... USO is stuck for now to this 108 to 113 channel. This may be consolidating towards some sort of spike (June 18 specifically). I am no longer putting anything in as my lame June120call still sits. I am glad I cashed out the July97call last week.



I was so tempted to jump into USO when it dipped at my supposed entry today <109. But I went with Gio on this one... Other ETFs have been getting some love. And why risk doing calls in july when i can move them 3 to 4 months away... That being the case i went with DBA Oct40call & HK Sep40call. Why stress with the time decay... whew... They both like oil going up while not getting stuck like USO.

In regards to LEH/ADBE... I didnt put much $ into them, but my feeling was that BSC didnt go down right away, but a few days after earnings. As for ADBE it has til July to get smashed so i am not too concerned about 5 calls costing me $35.

All those that shorted AAPL on the skinny Steve are just plain hilarious... if your entry was 170 today you are golden.

Mixed Messages On Oil...Other stuff... Lakers (likely lose next game)

So someone from Saudi says they will increase oil production by 200K barrels/month. Then another news item says that OPEC will not make any news decisions on production amounts until Sept 9. hmmm. Anyway, i think USO goes down a bit on Monday.

The real news this week includes earnings reports from LEH & GS. I think GS will again buck their competitors with a profit. However, guidance and observations on banks/credit in general will be key.

This will be a week of uncertainty in regards to the way Wall Street reacts in dissecting statements from earnings conferences.

What is on my radar is PCX. Will it cool off on oil news or be resistant and carry on the momentum. Will banks drag the whole market down? Anyway, it is key to see where the money is flowing to.

Another thing to watch is DBA (thx Gio). The option contracts are plentiful and relatively cheap. For example an Oct40call@3.43 is not bad at all. You have both time on your side and it is in the money. Food prices will not go down this summer, especially if the fuel folks are still making gas out of our Food. Thx guys...

I do have a few puts worth mentioning: ADBE & LEH. that is all...cheap stuff that will only score on disaster like reports.

So, watchlist: ADBE, DBA, LEH, PCX, USO, SKF.

Lakers stave off elimination. But i think it is a tough call the rest of the way. I think that they lose Game 6... What i read about regarding game 5 was totally expected. It is interesting that the Lakers score most of their points in the first period. Imagine if they had the killer instinct (and Bynum). I think the series would have been 4-1 Lakers. But Bynum is nowhere to be found til next year. At this juncture I think I will congratulate the Lakers on a great season... I would force them to watch how they blew a 20+point lead into half of the 3rd period if they reach the Finals next year.

SKF... Looks good - but wait...

I am on the watch on energy. But i tell you the one thatʻs like a ticking time-bomb INHO is SKF. A deep in the money call looks good.

A younger dude that taught me some stuff recommends energy... that is LOCAL, in North America.
Here is his rundown: PCX, CRK, HK. I listed them in the order that i like... I mean look at the chart yourself!

Well, i never knew of these tickers. I am totally blown away by their charts. I pick PCX as the equivalent to last years FSLR. There are a number of things i like besides the technicals. I always liked coal... it is a usual pick for winter, but in this case if you wait to get in at that time, you will be slapping yourself silly...

One nice parameter in choosing a stock is finding one with momentum with <15 years history... or relatively new. And you can see that PCX carries that new hot stock... it has been public for like hmm 7 months? now June 18 is a big day for oil... if it goes down, will the coal sector fall with it? Donʻt know.

Anyway, thx to Gio, i have been waiting for something else besides USO & V... and SKF is somewhat long in the tooth (but do not discount the fact that there is a ton of bad news that awaits the rest of this year...) For now PCX looks to be something to grab on to with a lot of option action. I am looking for deep calls.

Next Year Lakers... back to USO

Well a nice entry (that i missed). I didnt touch USO @ 110. It did finish up, but i think going forward it will be going sideways a bit and then BAM! a spike... much as it did when it broke to 113 last friday.

I have no choice regarding USO but to wait it out until it finds another pull back.

As i said RIMM will be getting hit for the time being... But my attention is on ADBE taking the brunt.

Speaking of taking the brunt... The Lakers blew a 24 pt lead, which almost happen to the Celtics in game 2. I didnt actually watch it happen. And i was glad for that. The series is basically over. The Lakers miss Bynum.

Lakers 1-3. I think they will win the next game. But winning all 3 in a row... well you know how that usually goes. I am sure the Purple and Gold people as myself dont like their team losing, but at least the future is VERY bright... The only team stopping them next year are the Blazers... i dont think Houston can handle the Lakers front line.

I know the series is not over, but i must say... i have accepted defeat... and being that i follow the Raiders, it is something that i have gotten use to.

I do think that after this year... the Lakers will be on a mission next year... btw, my Penguins lost too... both in the championship of the respective sport. Maybe that means the Raiders will be in the Superbowl... maybe not.

Waiting... USO...

So i got the pull back on SKF. But i think it would be best to wait it out until GS reports June 17. I am unsure how much LEH goes lower - but it will. I predict all the news about them removing the board is meant to ease things. But again, GS continues to buck all other banks/financial in terms of earnings day

USO is having a rally second half of the day. I am looking at maybe getting back in at July97call (again). It seems cheap here. I wish i was able to buy at the open... But i know enough not to play with poison. If it gets <110. It looks to be a buy. A solid base has formed above 100 and a minor one at 108 (wish i got in...)

Looking at some other charts. RIMM looks like it will go slowly down for some time - until earnings. It keeps beating and with adequate guidance. But for the time being it may be a nice short next week. Let this week pan out. AAPL usually gets a beating in comparison to RIMM as is the case today. I saw that coming...

Lakers/Celtics. Lakers are still in survivor mode. They have to at least win tonight to keep the series going. Otherwise, hasta la vista.

btw, windows Vista must really stink if MSFT is allowing people to downgrade to XP after buying a Vista box. I havent experience any problems with my very short time in Vista. But all these horror stories come out when i talk to Vista users. Windows 7 should be better since it sounds like they are actually taking their time on the basic foundations of the OS... blabbing again.

SOLD USO!!! And bought stuff... And useless basketball blab

I ended up selling my July97call. And keeping my June120call (maybe i should have sold a little of it at a small loss). There is some oil news tomorrow that could send USO flying, but who knows... Decided to take the 30%+ profit now. It happened that my timing was pretty spot on... just before USO bumped against 112. It closed @111. Nothing to gloat about, i had a bigger profit this past Friday had i just paid attention to my account. A really bad habit. Avoiding looking at something painful will only get worse later.

Bought a meager amount of V (a bit too early), but still <80. I think it goes low to mid 70s from here.

I also got a few of ADBE June35puts@.05. I think there have been just a few reports on possible problems for ADBE going forward. But no big news yet... so, some damaging guidance may pop up... and a 10 to 12.5% pull back is more than possible...

I failed to get LEH June20put. I tried to get in @.48, but it ran off to 1.18 (bummer) while i was sleeping. May try again tomorrow as they report Monday. I am unsure whether the bad news is already priced in. Thus, I am considering SKF. But i need to see some pull back for a better entry that may not arrive.

Otherwise, the vast meager $ i have is in cash. Just trying to be patient...

That is what the Lakers need to be against the Celtics - patience. If they do win it, which would be against logic based on the series so far, it will be a huge comeback - even if they are playing at home the next 2 games. And the Media are all up on the Celtics side, that will either motivate the purple and gold, or mean they have to try again next year. Laker fans likely prefer being the underdog rather than the favorite in this setting. A sense of urgency is needed on their part... The Celtics have always shown it... they already experienced enough of it in the East post season.

Forgetting Passwords

I am thankful that Ameritrade provides additional security if i was to even look at my account. BUT, the downside is when i cant remember the answers to the security questions. lame on me.

Anyway. FXP looks like it can blow up right after the Olympics. I still have a couple ridiculous Jan50puts bought back earlier this year.

SKF is probably the best place to be right now. much better than USO. But because i cant get into my account at the time of this typing, i have no way of getting in. LEH keeps sinking and may actually go green at next weeks earnings report as all the negative news may already be priced in.

Btw, V is below 80 again. Is it a buy here? Dunno but it is at a recently weekly low. I would buy below 75.

I have to get back home just to get into my account.

LEH, USO & Another useless Lakers post...

Well i was hoping today (actually yesterday 6/10/08) that LEH would find some positive territory all to allow me a nice entry on a LEAP put. Didnt happen.

And to make matters worse, it seems as though USO has lost some of the momentum i previously mentioned. The actual oil comod is up as i type this, but it doesnt seem to have as much of an effect if it doesnt have a strong specs on the call side. The strengthened dollar also has cut USO's legs a bit.

Lakers down 1-2. Celtics could have won this one. If it were Pierce instead of Allen that was the hot hand, I think the Lakers would have lost.

I never actually watched the game as i promised in a previous post. At least they wont get swept. All the talk of Laker's bench being superior is not true at all. Outside of Vuja*&^% & maybe Farmar - everyone else seems hesistant. The Lakers need after the post season may include someone from Detroit... I dont think the Lakers will have any problem attracting a player to take a pay cut and get a ring in the process.

It doesnt get any easier in THIS series for the Lakers IMHO. However, remember that this was the first time the Lakers beat them this season. Oh, and they need to practice some free throws.

USO Lame

Dollar strengthens today leading to weaker value of oil. My June120call is practically dead unless another spike happens.

Everything bullish is up today.... Power of oilʻs influence.

Lakers 0-3 tonight? Maybe... you know things are not headed the right way if most people pick you to win. Its tough being the favorites and losing.

Oh Well... USO... No surprises this time

Profit taking... In the biggest way. And i must say that is the only thing that bums me out about the whole deal. Had i even known about the think spiking on Friday. I would have sold in a heart beat. But as it is, that was a whole lot better than being -%50 in the loss column. i especially wished i could have cashed out my June120call. July has some time on its side.

For the time being, Oil/barrel actually is over $135 as i type this. So, where it goes from here? Not sure. But the momentum is towards the upside. There are some oil related reports this thursday/friday.

As for iPhone 3G i didnt expect anything out of the ordinary. A coleague asked if i would take call position on AAPL today based on WWDC, but i was hesistant to say anything definite. The true test is how it will sell on July 11. But as i said before, this stock is poison until it finds a solid base ABOVE 200.

And one other position to mention is LEH. it reported a bit early... but it may be a good LONG Put/or LEAP Put. If it is anywhere near as much trouble as BSC, the reward will be great....

Lakers 0-2. No surprise there either. I may be a Laker follower, but versus the 1980ʻs i DONT hate this Celtic team. There are some class acts. I just hope the Lakers can make it a series.

Oil... Again... Surprised.

Funny thing happened today. I walk into work and told a fellow co-worker. "Stay away from USO! I am losing a bundle..." Guess what happened today. I was surprised just literally a few minutes ago, expecting to wallow in my sorrow in USO. (HEY THAT RHYMES!)

OIL HAD ITS BIGGEST DAY... according to finance reporters. Some saying it may go to $150 BEFORE July... yikes!

Well, i am no way gloating... i am in fact shocked. My spec on USO was on, BUT the timing of my buy was terrible. Recently when the thing crossed <100, i thought, man it would be a definite buy here. But i was already sitting on losses as i bought it back at about 103 with option call strikes placed @97 & 120.

I am unsure exactly where it goes from here. but there is no way it goes below 100. It was a solid breakthrough its previous high.

Tough... Dumb...

Well selling V has now fully eaten me in the butt. Its well over where i sold. $78/79. Mind you i do believe it will keep going up albeit eventually. Do i regret selling? Yes... Do i wish i bought below 80? Yes...

My USO has taken such a beating. The whispers are that Oil has peaked. You know what, i dont believe these guys. True, the media is pumping the belief that gas will go up indefinitely. The mix signals are burning everyone to some degree.

Something similar came when the street dudes burned all the shorts on airlines. If u look at my past posts i was in disbelief how that rally happened. A fake out to the greatest degree. If you look at them today... Most if not all are single digits. I havent looked at hotels yet. But they will fall this summer as well. Hawaii alone has booked the lowest occupancy in months...

Now as regards USO, the storms/hurricanes would obviously spike this thing. But it is all speculation. If USO dips below 100... It's adios for me. It looks like i will be back to meager cash when that happens.

My buddy elsewhere has a LONG recommendation on UA. I for the most part agree. It is the next Nike. It is just above its lows. Anyway, the fact that it is cheap mid 30s has me taking a serious look. The economy just stinks and any company that just meets earnings may be all that is needed to get through these bad times.

The ultimate LONG out there is still out there. AAPL. Look for a possible spike this friday as details of the iPhone 2.0/3G whatever will be out.

BAD PLAN...

Well, i made the mistake of not watching my holding again... so, in the interim i found my wishing i kept V. USO was a bad deal, as i knew it was a reach. I should have waited for my entry point which was <100.

V was such a great opportunity to strengthen my position. Sadly i didnt and sufferred the consequence.

In the end i basically erased all the gain from V, and gave it back to the street through USO.

There is still a weird feeling about oil going higher though. Yes the hype on oil did leave me worried as to whether i should even be in it.

I will re-evaluate positions by the weekend. I definitely am an investor NOT a trader.

V.... Oil... Travel

V is near a break. The next support is 75... I doubt it will dip past 70, but if it did, i would buy a few and scale from there.

Typically Memorial Day is when the annual demand for oil happens, coinciding with travel. That is what history says anyway... My only oil position includes 2 USO calls one in the money and one out.

USO, it will definitely be volatile as uncertainty exists:
1) The earthquake in China has caused questions regarding their demand for oil. At the same time, disasters in themselves cause demand in oil with the need for rebuilding infrastructure and the like. Plus, they are still having the Olympics.

2) Will they still cut rates? Doubt it. Then again who knows. The weak dollar is what has really sent Oil/Dollar ratio flying.

3) Travel within the U.S. may include families choosing to stay closer to home. So, questions of demand remain here as well. I must say there are still deals to be found if you want to fly. But they happen to all be in the Fall.

Some are already saying we ARE in a recession. Uh, yeah... we know that already. No one will be surprised to see all the stocks that recently broke to new highs get pounded. Remember, the charts basically show you whats going on. The big brokerages can only sell so many blocks at a time to maximize their profits.

My thinking is to watch USO carefully. and move it back to V if i find a nice entry. Banks are to be watched carefully as well, as they are off their lows. They may be a nice short.

SOLD V... Bought USO

Granted my profit was smaller because my trade trigger was set in error. Either way, at least i got a modest profit to set off my losses for the year.

I wish i had these calls last week. The chart says this is just a break before it goes higher...
Bought 1 USO June120call (for a big run)
Bought 1 USO July 97call (a solid base has been formed above 100)

My timing of course is not the best... it may be the worst... who knows. All i know is oil still has some ways to go. It touched the $135. I see maybe another day it eases. But we are in the midst summer. i wouldnt be surprised that oil/barrel reaches 150 by July.

Btw, i still V will have a nice run... but wait for its earnings. and let the chart say where to go. As for now it will go sideways.

USO buy window closed... for now

ARGH!!! A few days ago i was looking to buy USO. The signal was it dipping below 100. Now USO calls are just running away from my buy point.

Speaking of which OIH actually went down today versus its recent trend of moving WITH oil.

V < 80 may be a sell.... or inversely for those who missed the boat. it may be a buy.

My reservations on AAPL has been right on based on the chart. It may very well be an buy if it holds at these levels prior to its Developer Conference. Otherwise when you look at the technicals, it has a long way to reach the 150 level

I have literally 2 puts.
JPM June 22.5 (old play), yet i feel it may come alive again. it has a head and shoulders and could collapse if it breaks below 40
FXI Jan50put 2009. This put got whacked as from mid-march it rallied from 125 to 160. I did expect it to some degree, but also expect (or hope) after the Olympics this thing will fall like a rock. China is facing incredible inflation and other pressures to its economy.

My main watchlist:
USO < 105 buy. Actually it may be a buy right here... thats what the chart is saying, but wait for it to go sideways a bit.
V < 80 sell
AAPL < 150 buy

If any readers out there see another security with a definite direction taking place... leave a msg.

Again... Itʻs Timing... Especially Oil

Watching USO go up this week, as opposed to last week, was not surprising... I threw it out there. At this point, there are no "cheap" options, but the likelihood of it going up from here is a done deal... History says summer, oil up, enough said.

One stock that has been even more resistant to weakness is also oil related OIH.

The vix is showing signs of spiking... the Bears are out there ready to bank major coin on the underlying poor fundamentals of the economy. Unemployment, oil gong up, food prices remaining pricey, leads to retail numbers suffering. nevermind the inflation hanging over us...

Anyway, i may buy straight up USO securities. and maybe OIH calls.

Watching:
USO >110 could be this week
V > 90 maybe next earnings, people will actually use credit cards more, flipping their debt from one company to another.
AAPL > 200 sorry, likely next year

Timing...

Well, i dont think oil has reached a ceiling. But my timing was horrible with oil going down and time decay regarding my CALL, but thats the risk of expiration week. There was weakness seen... but as i previously mentioned. it was more like insurance for me... i will look for USO to get <90 before re-entering. in fact, i wouldnt be surprised to see it spike again next week. we will see.

I know a few who have shorts in USO (namely Tim). so congrats to all of u... the affects of oil down also caused
FSLR to go negative was definitely due anyway. also the fact that FSLR had consecutive bullish days with the market staying neutral during the same time period

As for V. it has definitely found itself stagnant or signs of consolidation, setting up a solid base to build on. It has bumped into 90 but has failed on to break through. However, when it does... it may be a good time to buy some Calls. Patience is in order.

The same can be said for AAPL. 202.96, we will just say 203 is where you would enter.

Gio mentioned UA 60 by next year... very possible. They have been gaining market share and well, they have been marketing... they have shoes i might add. Very good margins if they gain popularity beyond the pro athlete. Its the staple for NKE... Shoes that cost $10 to make $5 to ship/package, then marked up $60-150. nice. they are winning minds in football and somewhat in track. But B-ball is where the luxury priced shoe sells, and as yet they have no marquee name there (yet).

the finance sector looks like weak... i have one old put in JPM. thats about it. its in the red, but i have a feeling i will be able to cut losses next month

Alright... another boring day for me... but being watchful will hopefully help me not miss opportunities that come in the form of VMW & SNCR puts. Both were no brainers but i failed to keep the dates in mind.

WATCHLIST:
V >90,
AAPL >203(calls) and timed puts a day or 2 after their developer conference where iPhone 2.0 is expected to be released.
USO <90.

OIL's Power over the street

So, it seems oil backs off its highs near $127. The sentiment on the street is that it has reached a ceiling. Maybe, short-term. in fact there are a number shorting USO as we speak today. So my $30 spec call will either be worthless or rewarding at weeks end.

The street is propaganding (if thats a word) that Oil is what getting in the way of bulls. Thus, the sell off in oil today. Some forgot that it primarily was the weak dollar that has caused the price of Oil to this point.

So oil related is down, as well as Ags. Most other blue chips are up... notables:

1) FSLR has kept above it's breakout move yesterday.

2) AAPL continues to march to its 52 wk hi. As i mentioned previously, i will not touch any calls until it crosses 200. looking at technicals... it was a buy back on March 22/23 @135 (crossing 50 day MA) AND again a month later April 21 @160 after it initially dipped below the 200 day MA. But it's all hindsight. I still remember it back on Feb option expiration day <120. i thought it was cheap... i was right, but i was wounded too many times by AAPL.

3) RIMM, after yesterday, i thought this thing would stay stuck under 140. nope. it maintains its high (post the last 3:1 split)

I sit back letting it V ride as it is up nice today. i guess i can view USO as insurance.

Another RIMM passed me by

My buddy brian called me last night to ask me about RIMM with the release of the Blacberry 9000 today. He bought May135calls and banked some nice change today. i dunno if he held it for the whole trading day, but it kept itʻs moment throughout with a slight tapering off itʻs highs.

Itʻs definitely a nice phone. being that i use a Pearl, i may very well end up with the 9000. btw, RIMM renamed this thing the Blackberry Bold 9000. Bold? Anyway, itʻs a 3G phone, higher rez, zoom camera, more multimedia friendly, GPS and 1 GB of memory on board. And they started a fund to get software dudes to build more apps for them.

Their announcement was necessary too, being that AAPL will soon release iPhone 2.0. They will formally have 3G, enterprise level email/networking (like blackberrys), SDK finalized to allow apps anywhere from biz to games. I dont think they will have built in GPS yet tho. I dont think AAPL will say much more than they did back in March. I think where they can surprise everyone is the price.

RIMM had a good day today. I did tell brian RIMM could go either way. In the end i think iPhone will surpass Blackberrys outside the U.S. That dumb deal with AT&T is actually hampering AAPL. The 9000 will not be out til the summer... Hmm just about the time iPhone 2.0/3G will be widely available.

I will touch AAPL only if it crosses 200. I have my V (negative today). And have added USO May105call@.30 on itʻs pull back. it may have reached a temporary ceiling or may be setting up for a small bounce.

Missed Bear opportunity... yet V continues

SNCR got whacked today. May puts were like a lotto, but no one cant say they didnt see it coming. If anything everyone is concerned with bigger dogs.

V surprisingly up today. MA, DFS, AXP were all down. In any case i am not complaining, but at the same time, it makes me have doubts as to where it goes from here. But it is apparent that V <100 is considered value.

I am itching to get into USO on a big dip. But V apparently is still a winner...

HUH?... Green Days Continue ON BAD NEWS

Well, FNM loses what, billion bucks and goes green?

This is all a set-up. Granted i am definitely happy to see V go up along for the ride (nearly 50% gain). But i dont expect this summer to be this UNLOGICAL. The big brokers are doing a major fake-out. The underlying market, world economy is sinking and yet the street is telling us otherwise. And boy the OIH thing i tried was sure a waste of $

The stocks on my radar are ones with high volume and great fundamentals:
1) MA & V - people will never stop using credit cards. Get ready for V to really push in China during the Olympics. MA tho still has greater growth prospects than V. V is just finding buyers who see value relative to MAs price

2) USO (not a company, but a great mimicʻr of oil). I may place a call on expiration week (when itʻs dirt cheap). See for yourself. Itʻs when $20 can turn into $120 in a hurry. In the end i lean to safety in straight up stocks

3) AAPL - its a tough economy for tech. but Apples cool-factor wins them customers. iPhone 3G with now multi exclusive partners in some European countries is a Great thing. But do not even look at it until it touches 200. Then do a strangle. The company is handily beating its competition on the PC front & will only have Blackberrys to battle the future of mobile phones.

Gio has posted nice shorts of late, namely irbt. i like robot vacuums, hope to get one someday. But the stock stinks.

In the end, I dont trust the Street... they are luring buyers back in... all to short them/sell them out

Patience Over Greed...

Its too early to say based on my last post, "Well, That didn't work...", MAYBE, it did work... I dont know at this point. I am just trying to stay disciplined. Cover my bases.

So, whats going on...
V is still trending up. My May100call may be in reach, but i have some cheap puts if disaster happens

AS FOR THE ENERGY RELATED:
OIH May put may take time to find a solid green sans commissions. Nonetheless, big bull run and strengthening of the dollar would be bad for oil... and OIH which continually bumps into resistance. I will not call a top. Whoever does that usually pays

FSLR got pounded today...Ags are just slightly down. I am happy i no longer am involved in either. The $ may be switching to other sectors. But i still believe oil will be up further in the summer. History doesnt lie. In fact, i may buy some USO if it crashed to the 70s.

Anyway, AAPL (my other favorite outside of V) is killing as it did last time this year. I have no doubt it will be worth getting back in when the charts show it building a base past 200. Let the chart decide. The 3G iPhone and new apps due out in June AND the possible selling price in the $200's may gain blackberry switchers(i dont remember anyone else coining the term, but its basically like windows switchers)

Well, OK, that didnt work...

OIH is blasting off on a 1/4 rate cut.

So, what happen, today at least...
OIH puts... nope, it went green (tho facing resistance@ 197). the rate cut made the dollars cheaper (good for oil), but this may be the last cut in awhile (bad for oil, but good for my oil put)

V is going sideways of all things... it seemed like it was blasting off at the outset @ exactly 215pm
V may100calls... nope, too far out
V may65puts... nope I dunno... its good thing actually, this was just insurance since i still have the bulk of my portfolio here

In other words... worst scenerio in terms of options. But i realize this week will be full of "stuff" for the economy to digest. And the charts do say that oil (as reflected on the commods)

This week will still be of interest. But i have no real transactions to make at this point... they are all set...

update @ 305pm EST: strong sell off happening NOW...
update @ 316pm EST: Tim is kinda gloating about IWM
update @ 318pm EST: a lot of so-called pro traders dont know what to do... the market is eating up everyone somehow. some that have fallen have found a bottom for the day and are now reversing... ha. funny...

Sold Some V.

V is up since my purchase >40% at the time of this post. Not bad. With the FED reporting in a few minutes. I had to be smart and hedge the situation. Otherwise, the rest remains in V for the time being... I really should set a stop. but i am in this thing for the long haul.

Sold some V to do the following
V x5 May100calls@.27
V x5 May65puts@.05()
OIH x5 May165put@.27 (oil has been correcting a few days now, and is possibly set to get whacked)

Well, thats all folks. 5 more minutes til the fireworks begin

MA killed... Will FSLR follow?

Looking at MA. Its more apparent to me that it has more growth than V. sigh.

FSLR is the big dog in solars. And they always seem to impress on earnings day. All the oil talk fuel FSLR and Ags.

Tomorrow the fireworks begin with the FED. ANYTHING... and I mean ANYTHING positive will fuel another rally. Today was proof. Consumer confidence, Foreclosures, at highs and yet the market remains stable, even green for some...

Well, i'm sitting on V. i wonder if i should hold it past the FED meeting. The Gross National stuff will point us in a direction, but that will change quickly come 2:15pm EST.

I was right AND wrong... on V

So, maybe now i should buy a put, considering the FED will open their big mouth in a few minutes - then you will see some volatility. The aftermarket red yesterday actually reversed to green today. Was it a fake out by the big brokers? Maybe. More likely it was their competitor MA that V is riding its coat tails on.

I do think that this week will say alot about how V (or for that matter any particular stock) will fare. Say the FED says tomorrow that everything stinks, cut rates with a note that they will pause on these quarterly cuts - if your ticker continues northward... good times ahead. If the stock keeps this trend in this horrible economy, then you can imagine what happens if a bull market was to return... which i dont see happening for a long time.

And There you go... my previous post was spot on.

The protective put deal would have worked out for an earnings disappointment like this. However, the report wasnt all gloom. I have no exit price at this point. The typical would be a trailing stop of 10% (i am looking long and looking to avoid being tax 35% vs. 15% on securities cashed <1 yr.) Anyway, prior to earnings the stop/exit would have been $67ish. If that's the case your protective put would have been 67.5 or even 65 (worst case scenerio).

being that i didnt have any free capital. i left it alone. what i could have done was sell a share and get my protective put aka insurance.

The aftermarket action of $5 in the red may narrow by the premarket tomorrow (or widen). The FED also will have a say on how much the economy stinks and a rate cut to boot. Anything can happen when the FED is involved.

Suffice it to say, a price drop for V could actually just bring in more buyers. I am still in the green on this and remain an investor NOT a trader for the time being.

V earnings await...

Well, i wish i had options on this thing weeks ago. Usually when you deal with options to make $, you would sell half or even all your calls today and buy puts to protect your actual stock. This stock has a ways to go on the upside.

Mind you, there is trouble ahead in the economy. But V seems more resistant to those problems than retail, tech, banks. With rising oil prices, Ags (tho some are taking a pounding today) and maybe Solar may be the only other choice.

Recession...Smeshion

So, *YAWN*, it appears a number of states are in a recession... Hello? Old news. blah, blah, blah.

Anyway, V reports on Monday after the bell. itʻs had a nice run. and considering that itʻs main competitor MA, is having a crazy run over the last 2 years (even during a recession mind you), things do bode well for V. We will see how their earnings stack up against the rest. And this provides a baseline for future growth. i am so tempted to throw some calls at this thing by selling actual stock. I havent quite decided.

For now my semi-comparison is found in MA, not all roses, but check out the movement on earnings...


Well this is V thus far... keep it in your brain prior to earnings April 28 and watch the fun happen.

WRONG UPDATE....

GOOG Apr500call worth $55 yesterday... i looked at it and said Nah... wont happen. Today same call option worth almost $4300!. this market is messed up... extremes. i threw some $ at AAPL calls today. way out of the money for July. who knows, they may have a run like last year. $80ʻs to $120ʻs.(50% run)

WRONG!!!

GOOG kicked butt for sure. I for one didnt see an Apr500call within reach... boy was i wrong. and what a waste of $ being thrown at financials... no bad news surprised anyone.

the saving grace is that most of my $ is in V. And any positive news in general has been gathering buyers. once they release their first public earnings, then we may have a nice run - and option call opportunities. Otherwise, looks like iʻll be sitting on the side for some time til the smoke clears.

I am tempted to trade AAPL. but why... anyway, until it breaks 200. i refuse to buy. i will let the chart decide that for me. The company will be fine. my guess is they are benefiting from substantial discounts in flash RAM for their iPods/iPhones. but all i care about is the chart... no more emotional tie ins.

Bought...yesterday & today

ETFC Apr3put@.15 & C Apr20put@.08... hey, i know they probably did hit bottom, but at this point after BSC, who knows.

MAR order thankfully didnt get in at my limit yesterday. but todays earnings sure points to where this stock is going... i will be watching closely. but itʻs heading downward, slowly. i may have to wait til it reports the next time around.

Iʻm trying to get ESLR Apr12.5call@.10. i refuse to pay any more. itʻs slightly up today, but the leader FSLR is not.

Iʻm bummed i didnt buy NOK apr30put. in any case, NOK is being are in denial regarding competition from iPhone(calling it a niche product) and in turn RIMM. the writing is on the wall. RIMM & AAPL will lead the smartphone charge... and no other companies will be able to compete effectively against the shift towards smartphones. sure, NOK has high end really cool stuff, but they are too pricey if u ask me. They may have market share, but who cares if your customer base doesnt grow by selling dumbphones instead of more profitable smartphones. Well, thatʻs my 2 cents, which i wish i placed in some of their puts.

btw, the word may soon get out on the iPod Touch being a trojan iPhone. It is cheaper and has more memory, but if it finds a WIFI to connect, starting June/July we will see VOIP apps.

Cheap near expiration option technique.

INTCʻs guidance will have saved tech for now.

a buddy of mine (with a Nice 3-series) shared this way of positioning at the end of option expiration because of the nearly 0 premium on time. it is that much more powerful when it exists in line with earnings report. so if u positioned for INTC, u could have bought an Apr22.5call and Apr19put for $19 & $17 respectively - a cheap strangle. if they hit in the money, hey congrats to u. Looking at the after-market it would have been a nice call. tomorrows pre-market is what will show how successful of a trade that would be.

i have a couple of old puts on JPM & WFC. if the same strategy was used hereʻs the breakdown
WFC: Apr30call@.05 Apr25put@.25 or.30 cheap... WORTH IT!
JPM: Apr45call@.22 Apr37.5put@.19 NOT WORTH IT, TOO FAR OUT...

So, in terms of value strangles OR just puts all report April 17(a= after/b=before bell): CAL(b), ETFC(a), MAR(b), ESLR(a)
April 18: C (b).... this may be another smoking gun...

unfortunately i have older options that has loss on time decay.
JPM: June22.5put (thereʻs still a chance... if more BSC hiding is out there...)
WFC Apr22.5put (itʻs been trading sideways...)

Tech... yawn...

So INTC is up next on earnings... problem is the sideways action of the market. the only ones making $ are the brokerages with the overtrading clients and the option sellers/writers.

Anyway, i am only posting this to make sure i still know my password. The real fun begins at the end of the year.

I've lost enough this year... I got a phat return because of losing last year (Same problem: setting stops). Just riding the pine with V.

AAPL reports next week. i think they will beat as expected and have guidance that doesn't surprise anyone. but if they fail to meet... look for a pounding... the warning signs on what Wall Street would do showed up a couple/few days ago when it lost $7+ on nonsense news.

So, life is easy now... one year since i married my honey... what else could be better. $ is worthless when you have no one to share it with...

Itʻs fun NOT trading...

Yup, itʻs fun, why? because i dont have to worry about losing whatʻs left of my portfolio everyday. Itʻs kinda like the old days when i bought my first stock in 1997. wish i bought more at that time (AAPL), but someone convinced me to buy govʻt bonds.

this is kinda funny... wish i saw it earlier. unfortunate for BSC holders - wish i bought puts, i had in WFC instead... oh well...



anyway, i have just a few puts, some bought some time ago (where i forgot to set a stop) & a couple cheap puts ($20 and under) ... and the rest in V. itʻll be interesting to see how the Leaders will act during earnings... small rallys here and there...

RIMM... and some stuff...

I did a weak stranggle on earnings today... weak meaning kinda far out... the after hours look just o.k. so maybe i just threw some $ away. it was a far cry from a $10+ after hours spike. i already put in a sell order on my lone RIMM call...

the market otherwise should be heading back down... thus, my puts are still in play... friday has a huge jobs report... could be a nasty day for those thinking we hit bottom. V is doing fine... and i happily will be bored with it.

Tourism... They will be next to fall...

It must be a misprint on HOT aka Starwood Hotel, inc
Aug25put @.20? Considering that the recession will take a whack out of the visitor industry.

This week has a bunch of earnings... RIMM, MON, MOS...

That's all for now... i am just holding onto my V. If it does anything near MA, then it will be the wisest and least tiresome trade i have made all year... or for the last 2 years to be exact.