After-Market Winners... QCOM, AMZN...

My set up was for a definite trend. I missed entering QCOM/AMZN, but i was too unsure of the risk.

QCOM really blasted off (18% gain!) once word came out that they settled with NOK.
AMZN wasnt really a surprise, i prefer shopping there too if it doesnt involve clothes

The thing is these good earnings set up another day for a rally especially in tech. So it affirms my option call in AAPL, who i believe is worth $200.

USO falling is such a sure trend...

HOT is my spec... 2 weeks ago the hotels tanked. nothings changed except for oil falling, credit crisis continues. but we will see, maybe i lose my puts to an adjusted guidance based on projections oil dropping.

My next post includes tomorrows (July 24) after-market.

Added HOT puts.... Position Summary

(3:44 p.m. EST) HOT aug35puts@.89: my last position i really wanted to snag... will find out how it goes tomorrow

My other positions bought today are small:
AAPL: sept175call@5.7 (12% gain) hope this niche rally continues
USO: aug100put@4.1 (17% gain) riding it down.

Held:
RHT: jan12.5put (-25% )
YHOO: jan32.5call/aug15puts (worthless strangle)
SNDK: aug22.5call (basically worthless from strangle)
JBLU: aug5call (small 83% gain)
EMC: aug15call (small 155% gain)

Sold:
JBLU: dec5put@1.15 (about 12% loss)
EMC: sep12put@.36 (about 50% loss)
ETFC: sept4put@.75 (breakeven) tried to cancel trade, shoulda been a profit

CASH: 15% of portfolio...

significant after market moves were generally split. if not uneventful

Bought... Await HOT at sessions end...

(9:34 a.m.EST)AAPL sept175call@5.7 wish i bought more. this is the early stage of a rally.
(10:07 a.m.EST)USO aug100put@4.1 wish this went to AAPL, but yet oil is in the confirmed decline. mind you i wouldnt be surprised if we hit resistance. yet my gut says US oil inventories will be unusually high. depressing oil further.

I await my lone bear play: HOT... it keeps moving upward, cheaper puts? or bear trap?

Bull Rally... Specific Bear...

So, as Oil is dropping like a rock, it is a good time to go long on any leader that benefits from an oil drop.

Bull/calls: Airlines, Tech (namely AAPL)
Bears/puts: USO or DUG calls, specific Hotel (namely HOT)

-AAPL will be in rally mode for some time. Call A.S.A.P.
-USO will drop as long as there is no disruption in the middle east/hurricanes.
-HOT will drop, but i will lower my risk with a longer put into November. Patience, for now it is in rally mode...i will fire against this with some puts but not as strong i would have a few days ago

Look Out Its a Hurricane... oh wait... yup it is...

Dolly... she cant make up her mind. But the Bears are probably happy as are those long energy. Any hurricane will cancel out an oversupply inventory report tomorrow. if the supply is less than expected look out for a spike again.

Be Careful With Oil... Potential Earnings plays... AFTER-MARKET July 23.

Inventory report tomorrow. And it seems that the supply on average keeps increasing thereby dropping the value of oil. Hurricanes will be the lotto. But the long term is that oil will drop when the U.S. reverses interest rates. A long strangle on oil seems reasonable at this point. Some claim oil can still go to $300 (forget Goldman Sach target of $200) and others say it will get to below $100 again.

July 23 aftermarket:
AMZN: a fancier OTSK?
T(unknown earnings time): can AT&T claim more on their network with iPhone 3G?
BIDU: the Olympics are near... after that, then what...
FFIV: toss up, but a Cramer favorite.
LHO: small hotel franchise... maybe a put
NTGR: they cater to homes & small businesses... maybe a put here
NTRI: rally on low volume today - u know what that could mean
BTU(no time supplied): here is your energy catalyst
PHM: they might as well build for the homeless... maybe a put
QCOM: CDMA technology - i.e. Verizon. no iPhone for you...
TER: chip testers equipment *yawn*
ALL: Allstate, solid fundamentals

There are a bunch of pre-market earnings, namely BA & ATI, i already bought for the 23rd today...
btw, Airlines kicked butt today. Of course Oil dropping surely helped besides JBLU earnings.

Another AAPL reverse fade... incredible

Mind you this has to be perfectly timed...
Imagine you bought a call that was basically worthless, the aug180call was worth $1!!! if you watched it carefully. it ended the day at $114. So, say you spend $200, you now have 22,000+. Forget GOOG, now this is a return... on calls with the stock opening in the red!!! i am sure i didnt discover this, but its worth keeping note of...

The previous example of aug165calls is more likely... but the potential position is definitely a cool way that works well (as it works with the more natural mentality to buy something cheap which includes BOTH traders & long investors instead of selling short)

OK enough with that. Moving on to July 23/24

Buys... On Earnings... "AAPL Reverse Fade?"

EMC: aug15calls & sep12puts (update: benefitting from VMW whacking)
ETFC: sept4put
JBLU: aug5call & dec5put. i only found out later that they already reported upside. boring... wasted time & $.

SKX options. not enough volume, so didnt bite
EW calls, ran out of time... wanted an Aug call.
VMW puts, i positioned EMC puts to benefit from double whammy.

sidenotes:
AAPL: i thought of buying a call early in the session. it was slammed only because of guidance. its a running joke when AAPL gives that part of its earnings report, sure enough the buyers all eventually came because the stock was cheap. an option position that would have been sweet was buying an aug165call@1.25 at the open. it was worth 10.00 the previous day, but now sits at 5.35. you can do the math. but its a lesson worth remembering for next Q. hmm is there a term for this? Reverse Fade? Anyway, this seems to be safer (maybe more than a strangle) than buying prior to earnings since a direction has been established.

HOT: i love the buying in hotels. i dont know if the bad numbers from HOT will be the same as MAR about 2 weeks ago. but how different can they be. i may in fact position MAR in place of HOT. either way i want tons of buyers - so i can buy puts of course.

Learning BID/ASK Real time Exit

There was a window where my Oct17.5put bid/ask was 4.85/4.9 while the last was 4.5. Should have sold right there to market and reset at another strike. I dont think it will reach that point again today.

My eyes are set on other positions...

Narrowing Focus...

Yesterday my Oct17.5puts will have action today... i think there will be a follow throught tomorrow. i will set a tight stop in the end. or sell half the position.

Out of my list, I am narrowing my focus at sessions end:
-ETFC: possible buyout, Q probably stinks
-JBLU: risk/reward on cheap puts(aug/sep/dec)
-SKX: aug22.5put or oct20put, possible bad earnings & legal battle with CROX
-EMC: relatively cheap strangle, VMW losses hurt bottom line. altho they have a pending data backup deal in play.

less 1/2 hour to open

(Specific) Shooting Fish In A Barrel...

So much red has been in the market and yet we are still at the beginning of the earnings season. Financials have been a toss up because of the govt. But Tech on the other hand has been whacked. We could do it the easy way and short the Naz, but the returns are limited if done in that fashion.

So what specific tech/others to look to short/put:
JULY 22...
-BRCM: there is potential in iPhone orders, so beware. but the $5 options strike @17.5 may be worth a bunch at days end.
-CAT: reports prior to open, so maybe a bit late - but there is quite a ways to go down. options show interest up to -$10
-CHKP: reports prior to open. internet security software still in demand tho.
-ETFC: toss up. but cheap puts/calls. nice stragle.
-EW: call interest has increased per earnings.
-JBLU: airlines have been whacked for awhile, but still cheap puts
-LXK: printers. boring... its tech tho...
-RCL: vacation related. enough said. reports prior to open tho.
-UPS: dropped to 50 after 9/11 so it can still fall
-VMW: once a great bull play. dramatic swings. bad news may be priced in already

You might consider these positions before July 22 session ends.
July 23 earnings before opening bell:
-EMC: already whacked. most recent LOW 7.53(2002)
-MCD: pretty much recession proof, but will they meet street?
-BTU: will set the stage for coal/energy
-SKX: shoes. toss up... still in style?
-BA: alot of contract orders. more efficient planes. strangle?
-NYT: losing AD revenue... this stock was $7 in early 90's. option interest/volume show a bunch of strangles.
-TRV: insurance/finance... who knows...

oops... forgot UPS. Next on Deck...

they probably will miss earnings...

Watchlist:
YHOO (july22): my spec is that Icahn got onto Yahoo!s board because they are desperate.

HOT (july 24 before open) & WYNN (july 24 after close): the bad news has just started... the worst is ahead of them... i say HOT will be at the same levels after 9/11.

Gut Instincts realized

AAPL fell despite another record quarter... its the guidance... otherwise i do think in a couple weeks (maybe days), the buyers will be back when they digest the significant shift towards Macs & iPhones, iPods are now an afterthought. They cant keep enough iPhones in supply... but you have some people planting a few seeds of doubt in the stock with questions about Steve Jobs health and the next CEO. What a nice set up for bulls... i say over 200 again in January... possibly October... ha! I would be surprised if i get my $ back on that Oct250call.(update: to clarify i was tossing some sarcasm) but i think there is HUGE upside... just not in the near term

SNDK: fell like a rock. finally a put in my favor... mind you its been over a week since i grabbed a real winner.

AXP: my suspicions were incorrect, i missed the put of the day.

Buys...

Bought:
SNDK october17.5puts AND aug22.5call (bear bias: didnt want to buy calls, just covering my butt)
YHOO aug15puts AND Jan32.5call (long bull bias, buyout merge spec)

Held:
RHT jan12.5put

chicken to trade: AAPL (i think it goes up +10) (update: bot Oct250call who knows, but i think they will surprise, its just the crazy guidance they keep giving usually stinks, i think AAPL is undervalued)

Waiting patiently to trade: HOT (i think it goes down -6)

Next On Deck...

AAPL: i am hoping the thing sells off prior to earnings... then i will buy a call... maybe a put on the side... they have the potential to surprise... upside... this gets the headlines that GOOG did AND the option premiums are difficult for a small player like me. (mind you i got whacked this past week: USO somewhat, HOT late exit, GOOG... ouch)
AMX: huge Latin/S. America telecom... toss up...
APX: V and MA get the attention...
BAC: the govt manipulates too much. not worth it
BSX: medical devices, may be worth a strangle
SNDK: this may be worth it... one put please...

This week was nonetheless instructive.
-the big names may reward big, but the premiums are prohibitive
-BIDU mirrors GOOG and the options were cheaper.
-any of the 4 horsemen would have been a way to position for GOOG
-MSFT was looked over... they are huge, but played second fiddle, BUT rewarded way more than GOOG. cheap puts + huge returns = happy individual investor. i am hoping that SNDK will be that on Monday.

NO time to hang my head. I almost expected to lose... sad... will get back to the disciplined trading that made me basically double my meager accounts. worked hard and stayed out of trouble...

props to GIO on overstock.com... btw, i bought a put myself today...

Learned A Few Things...

BIDU was a much better July option trade than GOOG... as well as RIMM
GOOG august is the only choice next time around... if on expiration day...

CONGRATS TO all the GOOG aug options holders, $NAS index, RIMM, BIDU holders.

i will give some props to ʻmytoneʻ who mentioned positioning BIDU instead of GOOG.

Worthless

Got a bunch of worthless GOOG options... want some? it is in the red... but not enough...

As FLY says... "developing"

I forgot about positioning for C...

Well, GOOG was a total mess for me... i dont think it will hit any of my strikes... and time decay is also a factor. it really stinks...

So, do we gap to 460 or 530? I dunno... anyway, best to plan for AAPL. The most confusing of all tech. except for this past 1st Q guidance, the tendency is to under guide. cʻmon S.Jobs, reward your fellow option buyers... July 21 after hours

I am just waiting for HOT for earnings... they cant smooth talk their way out as GOOG did today.

MSFT was a better play...

I looked at MSFT earlier in the day... and i regret not putting something in there... the puts/calls were WAYYYY cheaper than GOOG. and its direction is firm...

Mother market taketh away-eth...

After-Market... Worse Case scenerio playing out

So the aftermarket is bearish, but there is an upswing on the bollinger (20) on my real-time chart. The point is it may have fell hard but as the conference goes on, buying is happening... it could be a blah day for GOOG tomorrow.

Say goodbye to $500. see ya next year...

Tomorrow will show what i have to left to recover from all this... missed the move in USO/HK/etc in order to position for GOOG. NOT WORTH the trouble next time...

GOOG buffet... Mind you i could lose all of it...

Between 3:30 and 3:43 pm EST, I BOUGHT the following...

CALL SIDE: july 600@1.6, 620@.45, 640@.30 kinda unrealistic. but hey this is tech...

PUT SIDE: july 450@1.1,420@.30 very possible...

BOTTOM LINE:
I am VERY aware of the fact i could lose ALL off these contracts... Especially if GOOG is flat... However, if i told you last earnings that a $150 risk would bank 12,000... hey that is what you call leverage.

With that in mind, my view at this time is i LOST all of the above at about 4:30 p.m. EST
... 60% to cash... other opportunities await...

HK... wow it gets blasted again... FED/GOVT/PREZ

Well i for one didnt think HK would get dumped on. This thing is dirt cheap today, but i am alas focussing on GOOG. It would have made a nice short for me had i not had jury duty yesterday. I couldnt help thinking about the market yesterday, knowing i was missing some of the biggest swings in history. This would have funded my GOOG in a large way... oh well.

I cant help but think that this bull thing that the FED & Banks are selling are worthless. We will go lower... I EXPECT A CRASH. The govt is essentially asleep at the wheel. Bush doesnt care, he is leaving. Btw, November something is when they vote in a new Prez. I think the market will without a doubt move in a HUGE way!

update!!! crude oil <$130 possible strangle? not for me...

GOOG stock begets BIDU... By the way, AAPL

These stocks are almost bound together. I dont think the same can be said for AMZN. They are purely retail...

GOOG/BIDU play off each other I am thinking whether i can position elsewhere to go off GOOG earnings. BIDU itself reports July 23. The Olympics is the unknown factor...

btw, AAPL is nearing 8% of US PC sales. Amazing... there is no need mention of iPhones. Their market share was 5% just 2 years ago. They grew 38% this Q alone. The irony of all this is that they were able to do this due to adding Windows-native capabilities. In the end Apple is a hardware company that uses software to differentiate itself. But the fact that they have the FASTEST desktop/mobile hardware to run Windows is just plain hilarious.

Anyway, I expect AAPL to give blah guidance and thus keep its stock from exploding upward. But I foresee huge movements maybe a couple days later, when people ingest the possibility that Apple may one day have 20% of the US market as it once did when they ruled. For now tho the economy stinks. It is sad that Apple wont let AAPL reflect the actual success of its business.

Waiting on GOOG... USO thoughts

I am waiting to get closer to the end of the session to firm my decision...
I do know that I will buy July options. I will risk one portfolio. If it moves half as much as last earnings there will be alot of happy options folks...

Gio had a survey for option positions yesterday. he was smart to get the puts yesterday... i thought of it but thought if the rally continued i would pay another premium...

Considerations: this is with the thought that i lose it all...
puts: july420 & 450/aug400
calls: july600 & 630

Will check back tomorrow... i am in a somber mood. not much excitement.

USO has gotten absolutely pounded the last few sessions. as it should, with the FED saying the may very will firm or even raise rates took the floor out from oil. i LEAP in oil puts is a great idea. DUG LEAP calls are still cheap as well...

RUNNING OF THE BULLS!

Man what a day... glad i sold my HOT when i did...
I am sick about missing this swing...

GOOG looked on fire... it is best i wait for the best entry possible, but it looks as if i missed the best entry for my call option. Obviously my cheap aug400put is worth less than what i ate today.

I do hope this run continues through earnings... then we can reset for another drop.

Failure to sell... GOOG Patience required...

Well, I didnt get up early WFC says something bullish and now my HOT is paying for it... I am in effect in no-mans land... SO I SOLD... The bollinger band would have had me sell early and switch to calls, but alas i live in Hawaii... 330am gets old sometimes.

GOOG positions will best wait on Thursday... no sense trying to catch top/bottom today.

I missed out on USO 2nd drop... Energy getting pounded was expected, but my view was a bit clouded after the other day...

Gio has some interesting point on G$$GLE. It will be HUGE one way or the other... the last time GOOG reported. A $50 call ended up being worth... hmm $4000! the next day. Crazy... talk about a risk reward worth taking...

I am in essence all CASH and hold $50 worth of options/stocks sitting worthless...GOOG day tomorrow... Forget NOK my brain is so fried... I WILL re-enter HOT/MAR day of earnings depending on the trend, possibly earlier if the ugly news creep up sooner.

Today was all bulls... enjoy it now... we will revisit this the Bear stuff in a few weeks, maybe days...

INTC beat...

I am not shocked, to be honest its all about the mobile laptops... i am sure AAPL helps...

Depending on how Wall Street reacts, it will direct my option strike, altho i already have an Aug400put.

I am only holding HOT puts. I am a bit worried on a follow through tomorrow and MAR looked strong... on the other hand WYNN couldnt finish in the green.

I got NO CLUE what is happening tomorrow and thus 60% of my portfolio sits in cash...

Where am I?

I couldnt find anything worth buying except 1 GOOG put. It is TOO volatile for me. Sure some want to short energy - fine. I dont want any thing to do with energy (for at least a day - too sickening). I am concentrating my efforts on earnings for THIS WEEK.

GOOG:
I did buy one GOOG aug400put again with plans to buy a call day of earnings and add another put if it stuck to a specific range. i thought of buying BIDU/RIMM to mirror GOOG, but i am unsure how closely they would stick.

NOK: They will have something to say about their inability to compete with iPhone. Or is this already built into the stock...

COF: It never did break to green...

HOT may have rallied today (along with MAR), but this really is a false sector rally. Nothing in the economy has improved hotel occupancy, so for some of you out there, consider it a gift to find a cheaper put/short

In the end USO was the only position to burn me... sadly i didnt set a stop. oh and i kept getting false data from my brokerage account. it showed a 5% loss on my account value until i clicked the specific option, which showed a 40% loss. Even after USO came off its lows @110 AND after I sold my loser put, it still showed my account positions unchanged from the open! Horrible... but alas i have only myself to blame for going against the trend. No breakout... just breakdown again. I have no choice to regroup. I could have sold the meager profit on my HOT and reposition to lessen todays blow... So, remember my saying how awesome AMTD is? Well, today they stunk it up...

I am getting Smacked!!!

I was watching USO getting 146+/barrel. I then watch it settle and find nothing going on with USO. I go and so something for a 1/2 hour and BAM, USO is getting hammerred (i thought of buying puts for a second just prior...too little too late)

Realize though that Oil is nothing go hard on shorts/puts. To make matters worse, I sold off GOOG & RIMM puts too early, but who knew. Anyway, i have some decisions to make... Hold... or even Buy...

My only consolation is that i left my Portfolio B alone. Which basically gained 100% the other day...

Oil UP Because the $US/U.S. Eco STINKS...

So the Dollar falls hard against the Euro... Thus Oil is up a bit. What now FED? You gonna panic and raise rates after bailing out FNM, FRE, BSC, and whoever else we dont know about. I say go ahead and start a new trend for us...

I think we will see how well the banks were able to manage the bad news the previous quarters. USB reports today...

A co-worker mentioned EW, Medical related... You can do your own homework on it. The question will always be guidance and the fact is the economic backdrop makes a breakout that less likely. But such surprises are truly surprises and can reward greatly, see CSIQ...

I plan to watch the following closely today:
USO: weak dollar again
HOT/MAR: both still trends down below 52 week lows
GOOG: hoping this thing actually picks up a bit (cheaper puts)
USB, C, SKF: its all about financials today
DECK: missed this fall again, but shaggy shoes in this market?

Plan is to sell Oil into this latest trend... and bombard vacation related

BOUGHT... HOLD... Check Out Bank problems ahead...

BUYS:
-HOT aug25puts & nov30put: I reloaded on HOT, with November puts to ride... A market bounce does not change Starwoods future. I wish I bought MAR puts last week. It still has room to fall to about $14/$15 low found in 2002, just before the last bull market and post 9/11.

HELD:
-USO aug117call: Stronger $US keeping it from breaking out, yet $/barrel going sideways, but one attack in middle east spells a spike...
-RHT jan12.5put: boring... but look at it! It is dying slowly... almost no option volume, just waiting for future stink earnings.

Props to GIO who got a nice spike on CSIQ. I almost bought it today... nope. I cant go against the general market trend. I dont have the fortitude to follow solars. Apologies to Brian, maybe he should have bought that iPhone position... and sold. It was a net 100%+ on calls with the same going for puts if you positioned for a fade.

Watchlist: MAR, GOOG, NOK, C.

CHECK out this link, thot FNM/FRE like fiascos are over? think again...
www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a1liVM3tG3aI&refer=exclusive

Fiscal Immorality...See for yourself...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OS2fI2p9iVs

SOLD back to mother market

SOLD!!!
misfire GOOG aug400put (-23%): accidental buy... it was suppose to sell...

RIMM july95put (about -7 to 10% loss): i was just happy i almost broke even. i had a 200% gain once on these that didnt sell

LEH aug12.5put (-13%): looks like the FNM/FRE bailout will give a slight bounce here.

HOT aug30puts (50% gain): grab that profit and dont be greedy, looked like it bottomed for today (update: i was wrong). may reset at end of session

GOOG aug400put (100% gain): will rebuy somewhere on day of earnings, i saw a blip on the Bollinger real time that showed it might have reached bottom AND wanted to keep the profit to make up for the STUPID accidental buy at the market open.

So my portfolio stands with:
USO aug117call: pressure from stronger $US, but supply worries secondary to instability in suppliers

Misfire...

I have a 100% gain on GOOG aug400put, but instead of selling it, my automated trigger bought another option. yikes. have to pay attention to that... especially if the wife is talking (distracting). So, wasted a few bucks selling it back to minimize my risk... RIMM is still connecting with GOOGs losing ground... i am thinking of selling this too...

HOT is continuing is spiral downward. I sold off MAR a bit too soon as it too is hitting a new low as i type this.

AAPL play would have been solid had someone bought last friday and set up a sell at todays open.

I am nervously holding USO. I am itching to get out... the real time price per barrel is what i am watching in relation to it.

TOSS UP...

Well, there are a bunch of people prognosticating a bounce. Scary stuff... my portfolio is 80% bearish... well actually almost half of that is a call on oil... technically ʻbearʻ causing...

Anyway, thursday GOOG earnings will be interesting as will NOK. i will set up a far call for GOOG as I did a far put.

Things are VERY difficult to gauge. I will quickly sell off for profit... if the bounce does come it will pretty much shut down most of my portfolio...

USO is my only safety... spooky... HOT could still crash and burn even with the market bouncing. Past history showed the thing <$10 through the early/mid 1990s, followed by 1998 to 2003 being stuck in the 20 to 30 range, while money was being pumped into internet plays. The point is this could still go lower, it is obvious the chart shows it likely goes higher, but i really dont know.

SELLS & BUYS

SOLD:
MAR aug25put@2.3 (20% gain, sold near high)
HK sept50call@5.6 (sold too early, got jittery $30 profit, being careful)
LEH july5put@.24 (got back this 100% loss for a 5% loss)

BOUGHT:
USO aug117call@6.7 (broke to new high and confirmed/closed to new high)
LEH aug12.5put@3.5 (if FNM/FRE can go this low all financial can...)

Solid Hold:
HOT aug30put... held up. bought it back@.76 - reached a new option high 1.25 - nice but after MARs earnings I think HOT may have some bad news coming as well. I may sell into earnings and reposition day before... just to keep that profit.
RHT jan12.5put... its has time and bad fundamentals.

Jittery Hold:
RIMM july95put:if GOOG sinks... well there you go, i considered this a loss last week
GOOG aug400put: i saw it gain 100+ points its last earnings. who said it cant lose that much and more.
PLCN july80put: up in value, but no volume - basically worthless

I didnt have time to research much. I had a very important convention to go to today. Someone asked me about setting up for iPhone debut, i was like, nope... However, the energy sector has got back its mojo (altho i sold HK, missed a bigger profit and would have re-entered, but i was pressed for time today)

All in all uneventful, but profitable & disciplined. Opportunities for bigger profit, but i wasnt going to get up at 325am to participate.

OIL (USO )kicks butt again/AAPL iPhone/HK ʻalamoʻ

I actually saw it beginning to breakout but didnt jump in... it broke from 111 and propelled to 114 and i showed it to my wife this morning... it happened in <1 minute... amazing. If USO crosses 116 i will be there ready...

AAPL will have some bragging rights depending on how many iPhone 3Gs are actually sold tomorrow (in some countries today). You better believe i will place a strangle in there with a bullish bias depending on iPhone numbers. I never expected people in Europe and Asia to camp out for these things.

HK is my lone position that is profitable, i actually caught this thing prior to its second to the last rally of the day. (The rest of my portfolio total about $100 loss, not bad it could have been worse) HK can get to 50 easier now with Oil on its side. Interestingly, even when oil initially head down with other energy securities, HK broke to a new high. So, if anything, it will be one of the last energy positions standing (remember the Alamo). Look to HK and buy dips... during a trading session. I have that call going into Sept.

I have a little unusual position on HOT & MAR. The news cant get any better going forward for them. But I worry that my going with August puts leave little room for volatility...

I have packed weekend so no trading tomorrow. Setting a couple sell stops...

SOLD DIA put

I have not made a buck on DIA puts. The one time it showed green on my screen (last week), i didnt know it was a short session (July 3). I wont be getting DIA any time soon. It may be good to buy at sessions end as it is hovering at these levels and sell at sessions open the next day, but i am cutting my loss here...

Sold
CHL aug65put
DIA aug111put

So my positions include thus far:
-holding pattern
RHT jan12.5put
RIMM july95puts (will cut this loser soon)
GOOG july400put (my spec)

bought today
HOT aug30puts (hopefully works out based on MAR)
MAR aug25puts (better late than never, hopefully)
HK sept50call (lone bull for now)

Cash... i wont go all in... if this was all bonus money than sure... but i am still the average dude trying to pay of my debt.

I KNEW IT... DONT HAVE TO BE A GENIUS TO FIGURE IT OUT: MAR/HOT and USO/HK(again)

Well MAR dropped as expected, and the sick part is I wasnt part of the put buying. I am not allowing that to happen with regard to HOT which also dropped on MARs earnings and guidance.

Bought
HOT aug30puts@.75. It may at least double in the time prior to earnings on July 24.
MAR aug25puts@1.9 It may be later than expected, but it has more downside DESPITE the chart saying bottom. Either way, why didnt i buy both these puts earlier?

Oh, Oil is oversold mind you. It will get to $140. If it crosses $146 back up your truck...

HK... i wished i kept that call... anyway, i switched out my small CHL put for an HK sept50call.

Check this out... CIR

Interesting to say the least. But no options... so i have no buying interest. if you are one to short everything in the sun, this is an interesting play because i mean cmon they sell valves and fittings for fluid control products in the USA. anyway, they must be good at what they do.

Put buying... Argh! forgot to buy MAR!

BOUGHT PUTS:
GOOG aug400put (450 pm EST)
DIA aug111put (452 pm EST)
CHL aug65put (456 pm EST)

So how did i forget to buy MAR!!! They report before market opens tomorrow... But i have been squawking about this one in the past and now that the time has come i forget to buy puts... ridiculous!!!

The Casinos got whacked today... didnt pay attention again... too many ʻoptionsʻ

Anyway, Bear Market/Bear Market/Bear Market... i dont know what bottom some are calling but it aint here yet. I have be content with my positions and not cry about missing MAR. GOOG may pay out in spades if Tim is right on again... He has featured RIMM & PCLN when they were barely showing bear signs. I will give a mucho grande props for him if he is right on with GOOG. They report July 17 after market closes, i may buy some puts that day, but we shall see how this week goes til then with what i have.

Btw, if $oil/barrel crosses <130 i am buying puts in USO... I may try my IYR theory again

SOLD!!! Most of everything... Reassess

Sold:
HK Sept45call 23% gain (4-ish am HST)
IPI Aug60call 20%+ gain (4-ish am HST)
DUG Aug35call 39% loss (glad i sold)
IYR Sept58put 44% loss (sold too soon)

The last sell (IYR) i just plain gave up, but as it turns out it looks like it may get ITM soon. So, sold off a bit prematurely. The same could possibly be said for IPI but a profit is a profit and it looks like my wins outweigh my losses so far today.

Will reposition portfolio at sessions end. Oil is still unstable, but it still keeps a cap on rallies.

So, i have a couple things to consider: buy IYR puts again, USO deep ITM calls, HK calls, GOOG far puts (Tim), and some other stuff...

Currency ETFs

$US vs Euro: FXE, ERO
$US vs Pound: FXB, GBB
$US vs Yen: FXY
$US vs $Canadian (my favorite to possibly short): FXC
$US tracker: ITPS, UUP(bullish), UDN (bearish)

The options on these are boring, but if one would like to position for the rate hike here you go...

I am going back to sleep. Night shift stinks that way... but hey, I have a job, so I aint complaining...

Brought Back Old Friends

IYR theory is so far a failure (thx to Ben handing out our tax money), in fact I tried to sell the thing.

Bought: IPI Aug60call, HK Sept45call

i am back in the Ags & coal. Why? Because my bear portfolio is going to get whacked tomorrow I needed to hedge and jump into this rally... tho i think it will be short lived...

So, I got
2 bulls: IPI & HK
5 bears: IYR, RIMM, PCLN, RHT, DUG

I have no idea what happens tomorrow, Long term bear, short term big mean bull with 25K horns

Whew

Well, Sold DIA puts early in the session. 5% loss. I learned from USO yesterday to sell close to break even if the trend is broken.

Looked to buy OIH puts but didnt...
Bought DUG Aug35call (maybe bought too early)
Still holding: PCLN july100put, RIMM july100put (probably zero out), IYR sept58put, RHT jan12.5put

The rest is in cash...

I really dont know if energy gets a massive bounce, but it is certainly possible. That includes Oil, however breaking <$140 is a psychological barrier...

Anyway, i have little confidence in this market even tho for now it is green. i may buy at sessions end...
btw, wish i bought them VMW puts - talk about a payday.

Like I Said, "Oil run over for now"...But Didnt Expect a collapse. FED and DIA

You bet i am happy i got out of Oil/USO yesterday. Grabbing a short/put position was not part of the plan (unfortunately).

And now the FED wants to lend more of our tax money to the greedy lenders. Ridiculous. My DIA puts are going nowhere...

Oil...SOLD USO, its run Over for now... WHERE to go from here? Rate Hike Related...

OIL
Oil has gone up primarily from the FED cutting rates. Couple that with Natural Disasters and crazy middle east stuff and you got an unusual supply demand thing going on... Today was an example when all those legs broke today... likely rate hike, hurricane will miss a supplier, and Iran/Israel talking agreement... bam! Oil down >$5 at one point.

Of course, Oil will still trend higher. but pressure on oil is greater. the natural disasters and middle east conflict can always send oil higher, but we may not find it on the nice reliable trend of late.

SOLD USO
Anyway, I sold my lone USO CALL @20% loss. Pretty much erased my profit from last week... yet, better to cut it than risk losing more. I missed that exit today with a 5% loss, but learned some stuff today. same goes for DIA puts (i am holding) i had a chance to bank some coin. would-ah, could-ah, should-ah. A profit is a profit... and the time i spent on all this is the bummer part of it. The Credit Crisis i thing though is upon us again and couple that with the FED raising rates and trouble looms...

I may buy USO again, it is just a matter of what is going on at the time... right now, nope...

INTEREST RATE HIKE...
If we are indeed set for an interest hike, imagine all those living it up on credit. Even the publishers clearing house sweepstakes spokesman guy (Ed), filed for bankrupcy, he was a mulitmillionaire! The US is filled with other people who are not poor yet are basically broke...

WHERE $ Might FLOW...
I think it is time to short real estate again. financials have been pounded to pieces already. it is back to real estate... SRS is an example of what is possible from here...


IYR chart on the other hand make you think this has bottomed...


But where is the actual the bottom?


So @313 pm EST, i bought IYR Sept58put@3.79...Rationale?
If we keep getting an interest rate increase (stem inflation), where are people going to get their loans to live? Is the ʻbankruptʻ government going to step in again? How about all those greedy banks/brokers/agents... all your homes will be worth"less"... "Less" in that you will have no one to sell them to and YOU are stuck like everyone else. Sure you will have more money than Joe Blow, but you will be buying food with him at 7 Eleven...

US DOLLAR...
So rate hike means stronger dollar... and yet the US Economy stinks. I dont know about trading $US versus other currencies. I will have to investigate that further...
By the way, i am all in for a stronger $US, i have a trip possibly coming up next year in Europe. I need a stronger $US in the worst way...

Missed My Exit... USO calls/DIA puts

Shoulda: sold USO call when it failed to break green...
Shoulda: sold DIA @meager profit and reset for tomorrow at sessions end...
Shoulda: waited on that IYR put... just threw more money at mother market without getting paid...

Now i am staring at USO screen... waiting for that dumb exit that might have past...

I DECLARE! OIL will not be a bull (for now). I shall post later on this...

(UPDATE 356pm EST: Sold USO call)

Agonizing....USO call/DIA put... bought PCLN put. Considering Real Estate Short/Put

The $Oil/barrel is recovering but USO isnt exactly cooperating... I am still hanging tight.

DIA put are safer, but my small profit is being wiped out... what a waste...

PCLN. Better late than never, bought July80put

SRS on a small breakout (and IYR breakdown)... they will play nice and may return big if interest rates do indeed increase, thereby destroying any chance for the borrower to well... borrow... losing their home (if they havent done so already) AND car, etc really anything bought off credit.

Did I mention credit report tomorrow? Maybe that will tip things farther (pretty much what I hoped Unemployment would do) against the Index, specifically the Dow. I will not go against the NAZ (yet), AAPL got some news that might zero out the bad news.

AAPL cart... Oil... IWM

Glanced at some other blogs of dudes a lot more intelligent than me. AAPL has been suggested as going on the short list. The technical tend to agree with the channel high 170s to low mid 160s. The long term put is much safer - as the longer trend shows it heading to 120... its solid base before double digits.

HOWEVER, the pent up news coming July 11 is something of note. iPhone release day. I am one who does not own one nor wants one (yet). but people have already been standing in line for these things and the number of those interested since the price cut is unbelievable (update 8am HST: UK is SOLD OUT of iPhone 3G before it is even released). so anyone shorting AAPL just prior to July 11 and out of the 160-178 range BE VERY careful. Price spikes in AAPL is something wicked that can eat you alive (i have lost on both the call/put side...)

Oil has somewhat recovered and kept to the 140ʻs. I didnt sell my lone USO call, just thought about it. Of course, had i NOT owned it (which was supposed to happen with a sell on a holiday Thursday session, i would have bought it up again...)

IWM must have rewarded a few people today. Unlike DIA & SPY, this thing moves in a big way. it is near its 52 wk low @65. So, much care is needed in puts/shorts

Confused...

Oil per barrel is @<140. Do i jump ship? Or is this one of those back up the truck kind of thing.

As for the general market, the VIX looks like it has a spiked a bit just a little past 1230 EST. So my DIA puts are going to work.

And GLD specifically is spiking... do i switch from oil to gold? confused...

Oil Getting Pounded - I expect I will be too... Wait til Tuesday

Well, it seems like there will be a break for the bulls... Iran says they can negotiate something regarding their nuclear program. Unfortunate for me, I am ʻstuckʻ with USO call (which i intended to sell last thursday, but didnt know it was a half day of trading). Now i am in a position where my USO call may be blown to pieces and a hard bull run/rally may hit my DIA puts (i also intended to sell at least half that position on thursday). My RIMM puts will likely get blown to pieces as well...

In the end this coming session would have been an awesome time to buy USO. but instead i am ʻstuckʻ. I can only watch helplessly. DIA has time on its side with they being Sept puts. But RIMM/USO July options that expire next week - yikes! I may be in huge trouble....

We shall see... i doesnt make any sense for me to wake up 3am to watch my portfolio get pounded...

OIl... runs the market... i was at a ʻbonfireʻ recently... watch that thing burn for some time. looks like i am going to watch my portfolio burn too...

Oh yeah... one thing the bulls will fear is Tuesday... Credit Crisis (again)

Sold HK puts (triggered)/Upcoming Week

I had to go to sleep... It was like 345am. the thing is i missed HK getting even lower. so, again left some $ on the table. But sell stop was set obviously too low. anyway, missed another 100%+ gain - ahem 350% to be exact. I will be content with a 33% gain.

In any case, i didnt know it was an abbreviated day to trade. I wanted to switch out my DIA puts for more USO calls.
We will see what the coming week of news will bring.

July 8 consumer credit/housing sales
July 9 crude inventories - AGAIN?
July 11 trade balance (not so clear cut indicator for US economy)

On hold
RIMM July100puts (i am trashing this next week)
RHT Jan12.5puts
USO july113calls (i expect some fireworks on monday not July 4)
DIA sept112puts (wish i sold half the position today)

Unemployment Still Bad But Not Worse, Now what?

USO premarket with a has a sell off taking place...
DIA premarket in the green...

Bounce?

Anyway, I have decisions to make. Do I sell off everything?
Well, selling off USO might be a good idea at the open, then re-enter later. Mr Paulson has no idea how to fix oil prices. Its because he cant! He is part of the problem. He is making dough with the oil cartel.

Unemployment is steady... or as expected. 62K. Not sure exactly how they got the number.
So, regarding index puts, i really dont know how strong either way it will open. I do have time on my side regardless. I almost hope today stays flat so i can hold my index options next week. Thing is i want to cut any loses from a possible bounce...

Plan Sticks... Furious Closing Buys

Bought:
(1022 am EST) HK july35puts@0.10 (reaction buy from seeing the coal sector crash all around it, while it broke out 2nd day in a row)

(1102 am EST) USO july113call@5.30 (no spike after crude inventory, but supply suggest USO goes higher wanted it confirmed green before buying)

(356 pm EST) DIA sept112puts@4.70 (thought of july/aug but wanted to protect from a possible rally)

(350ish pm EST) "accidently" bought x3 DIA shares (was trying for puts, not good to be trading when barely awake) so I sold it at a loss... trading 2 interfaces (AMTD & SCOTT not a good idea for someone who slept <2 hours) threw away $15. you are welcome Scottrade. My bad...

Held:
RHT jan12.5put (boring, but i see it happening)
RIMM july95puts (this shuda been the 250+% gain the other day)

Well, if there was anything i might have done differently, it would have been to go with a heavier lean on USO calls. But DIA puts work for me too, specific for unemployment news tomorrow. The thing is there is no ʻguidanceʻ or forecast attached to unemployment numbers but any surprise of lower numbers could blow up my puts. Also maybe I should have bought one IWM put... IWM surely returns better than DIA but i digress.

To sum it up got an Oil call/with a coal hedge in the form of HK puts and Index puts in the form of DIA. Pretty much ʻstuckʻ to my plan that I posted on sunday with the exception of when i actually entered all my index puts today rather than one on Tuesday and one today. HK puts was a bonus.. I still left some to cash (cant get greedy).

HK and GMXR are en fuego! Bought HK puts

Man i really regret selling that Aug45call 2+ weeks ago...

Anyway, i am actually trying to buy a put ahead of crude numbers. Missed the dirt cheap July35puts@.05 and got in @.10
Almost all the other coals are down... but HK is either unstoppable or squeezing out the last energy bears. It will be my insurance hedge on energy.

Index Focus on DIA

Why DIA? Because there is a large amount of energy stocks in the S&P, though it also has a bunch of Financials as well. But DIA... to be honest, it provides the clearest of all things market wise for my limited knowledge. someone out there correct me... I dont like QQQQ puts or QID because of strength from AAPL. Nor do i like IWM, too volatile for me.

The technical DJI graph i posted a few days back still says we continue in this downward channel...SEE "OIL AND $INDU" (6/26/08)... That being said, I am still waiting for a bounce, which i guess will happen today.

There was a report regarding high unemployment may lead to the FED cutting rates yet again... which of course adds to the Oil rally (again).

So I have focused my attention on the following with 1030am EST in mind:
USO calls, RDC calls, HK calls, PCLN puts, DIA puts, GG calls, RIMM puts

Few Notes... Tech... Oil pressure

Tech has formed a short term base for a rally. BUT a follow through may very well be dependent on pressures from energy (oil news) and a weak US$(euro-union to raise rates?)

AAPL & RIMM each made a $10 turn around. However, RIMM after hours showed another sell off with profit taking and a few bulls finding a sell point/take their loss.

The run up for AAPL is also related to the iPhone release and earnings on July 21. Some wonder if AT&T has indeed subsidized the iPhone, meaning a guaranteed pay out to Apple. So, although I will refuse to participate (until a base is formed >205), AAPL may very well be in for a relief/sector rally.

I still think energy has some punches left. The trend is still for Oil to go higher the rest of the year. GW-Bush is still in charge... but patience is necessary

I will pay attention to the 1030am EST numbers... and set up ONE deep ITM index put for unemployment come Thursday as planned.

Mind you, if the unemployment numbers are better than expected we will get that mini rally the bulls have been begging for - otherwise its more Bears as usual. i may throw a call out there just in case..

Watchlist includes: USO, PCLN, HK, GG, RIMM, INDEXes (DIA, SPY, QQQQ, SDS)

A bit miffed... Missed a sell & Without a meaningful position at the moment

Well i HAD a plan to carry out today (like buying some SLW).... but slept right through it. My alarm was set on vibrate... just great (sarcasm)

Altho i gave AMTD much props for helping me this morning. I still forgot to sell my RIMM july100put position @ a 250% gain! because i didnt set a stop the day before! It will surely go to zero at this point... at the very least i would have sold for a loss today.

It seems as though i have no choice but to watch others have fun tomorrow. I will just have to join the action later. 430am HST. It will give me the first glimpse of possible positions... Energy might continue its run based on crude inventories tomorrow.

Also of interest is the fact that the people deciding on the Euro may actually raise rates on Thursday (July 3)... thereby weakening the US$ and strengthening Oil/Gold further. (FED did its job of weakening the US$, now others can join in maybe they are all in the same boat while Uncle George ʻOilʻ Bush is the prez)

Anyway, my planned positions for this week has basically worked out. Going to cash prior to crude numbers AND again prior to unemployment numbers on Thursday...

Correction Crude numbers tomorrow...

Anyway... i thought it was today. I was waiting for some fireworks. for now i will go to sleep. and wake up before the session ends. I am considering GG (thx Gio) for my gold and maybe HK(wish i held) & SLW (gold AND silver)

I think there is a bounce somewhere tomorrow. I some volatility related to the Crude numbers.

I may just go ahead and wait for that time to come... but we will see how the market finishes when i wake up in less than 2 hours...

AMTD is awesome... USO sold...

For the life of me i couldnt remember my additional security passwords when i am on a shared computer. i had to do a phone trade... like the 3rd in my life. the execution was instant. and she gave me the internet price for the trade.

she then helped me to have access with the computer i was using at work.

on top of that i had a solid sell (my minimum 15% gain) i got a market sell that 2 minutes later was no longer available on my USO july110call. it may very well run up til the crude numbers, but its fine with me. i was relieved not to have lost this one. bummer tho, i had an even greater gain if i remembered whether i did set my sell stops or not. Anyway...

PROPS to Ameritrade.

Other stuff...
PCLN keeps dropping. I refuse to chase... or enter until July 2 or the end of todays session.
i await numbers in about 1/2 an hour on crude. will wait for reaction and move into USO & HK, which may happen at sessions end.

Sold one/Missed selling other

Well, not exactly as planned... kinda break even-ish

Sold Palm Aug5put 100% gain... BUT...
Missed selling USO july111call (would have been 15% gain). I forgot to set my stops last night.

As for today. I didnt see anything that told me it was a good idea to enter an index put. Even though Auto/construction news comes tomorrow, the technicals suggest a rally. Which is good because I want cheaper puts.

Energy was a winner. Particularly HK & SFY. There are others of course.

I missed the BIG move in PCLN. Totally lost track of it. The put buy was this past Friday, after the confirmed bear close the past Thursday (7/26/08 from Tim). Chances are it firms up a bit from here. Their earnings report is in August. Depending on how it does this week, i may enter the position. But consider this a lost 100+% gain opportunity.

My eye is firmly fix tomorrow on Oil inventory numbers. If they are higher than expected, we will find a dip. If supply is lower than expected. I might need to get in there FAST... As the Bear perfect storm of high Oil and possibly damaging unemployment numbers come thursday.

For now i am holding Aug110call. Maybe we get another spike... who knows. Clarity after crude numbers @430am HST.
It really is simple...

WOW... HK/PCLN (90 minutes til bell)

HK breakout... PCLN breakdown.

HK is headed to 50s for sure.
PCLN is headed to double digits for sure. earnings report in August

I am waiting for the sessions end to decide, which positions to enter. Too many ʻoptionsʻ to consider...

Still holding
PALM Aug5put
RIMM July100put
USO July110call
RHT Jan12.5put

This Week (June 30 - July 3) Outlined Plan (Position for Eco news)

This week:
July 1: Auto Sales/Construction spending
July 2: Factory Orders/crude inventories
July 3: Unemployment rate

So here is my plan for this week...
June 30: See market sentiment
- hopefully there is a bounce, to get in cheaper index puts/shorts
- Auto/Construction may already be priced in, but get first index position

July 1: See how the market opens/market sentiment
- If auto/construction leaves market flat hold 1st index position (but take profit)
- leave my one call on oil if stays flat. but sell at profit
****crude inventories lately seem to be more than expected (greater supply)

July 2: i think there might be a dip in oil/energy it after crude numbers, dip in energy means possibly cheaper index puts.
- buy oil/energy after numbers released (4:30a HST) AND
- buy index puts/ultrashorts if have not done so already.
- i like DIA & SPY puts or SDS calls.
- IWM put maybe, it depends. The Russell is volatile and may close where it opened

July 3: Unemployment numbers are out early. It is worth my getting up (*sigh* 3:30a HST)
- SELL for PROFIT (especially security puts) if market tanks... otherwise, let it ride if it opens flat or even higher.
- If sold positions, Re-enter index puts/oil calls at end of session, uneasiness during the weekend may spur more selling the next week. it depends on what the Unemployment numbers are... mind you there are ALOT of people fired from brokerages houses, banks, airlines... but we shall see how it affects overall numbers.

To some it up, buy Oil/Energy dip (possibly July 2)
Buy Index put/shorts July 2...

Hmm maybe i should focus on July 2nd instead of July 3rd

SOLD yesterdays positions...

Woke up 330am HST... and quickly did the following...

SOLD my puts in QQQQ and calls in SDS...
i figured there would be a bounce later in the session. i then went to sleep...

Woke up 730am HST...
RIMM
the nice surprise was july100put at 100% gain @3:30am... BUT BROKE ONE OF MY RULES! Like a dummy i held it... so sold it break even 7:30am...(which was smart). i then re-entered with:
bought july95puts (which i failed to remove on my order, i could have got a cheaper limit, but got distracted looking at Coal) - i think it will be awhile before it goes double digits, so i am counting it a loss.

Held Red Hat jan12.5put... potential there
Held Palm aug5put... it was dirt cheap, couldnt resist.

BOUGHT USO July111call (7:30am HST)
-failed to add MORE to that USO position due to an error in my brokerage account. in any case i will have something on the side for Monday.

I briefly looked at PCX & HK. But i got locked out of my account... i will have to wait til monday. PCX is looking mighty good... if it crosses 165, the basic chart reader will need it to base out first before jumping in. On the other hand if it broke out HARD and kept its base... by all means be safe and do an ITM call.

Anyway, the disciplined trading has payed off thus far.
USO is the only definite position i have confidence in... Coal as well, but i dont own any of it. I will be content with the minor gains on a day that could have gone bad.

i am watching PCLN quite closely - it is too tied with Airlines not to look at...

July 3... 7/3... 3rd of July...

Here is a good idea from a perma bear

PCLN... you know capt Kirk commercials. kinda funny. but i am sure he wouldnt think this chart to be funny at all. why?

1) Fundamentals
- Airlines are not going to give anymore ʻcheapʻ tix or leave open seats for PCLN to sell.
2) Technicals
- you can eyeball its failed attempt to break 140 and see the candlestick highs line up perfectly DOWNWARD.

anyway... thx to Tim for this pick. its worth watching. look how low it can go...

OIL & $Indu

This is it... No more Oil going down any time this summer. I wish I left my USO Aug110call alone but... I was waiting for Oil to cross $140/barrel. It actually whacked 141 at the time of this post.

So, the plan is to basically go after another call strike on USO. catch this breakout... even if it is just a bit late...

We may have ourselves $150/barrel by July 4, as some have indeed suggested. Someone at the gas station today came out and told my wife and I that Gas will go up 10 cents tomorrow and that Oil will be $180 by the end of summer...
See, the media is feeding this to everyone now... old news if you follow investments.

Either way, even if there is a bounce tomorrow in general equities, Oil will suck them back down and then some and finally, Mr. Tim himself provided a strong Fib argument for a bounce in DJI or a.k.a. $INDU. He was worried about the Dow running into trouble with the 11,500 fib line... Well looks like it dropped right past it... We shall see how tomorrow goes, but I think some real bleeding in the markets will actually come July 3rd... people are really gonna get tired of that date

SOLD yesterdays puts TOO early...

I left a few bills on the table... but i wanted the profit... and move slightly to safety...

I sold USO when it was stuck around 111.... it shot up to 113 a 1/2 hour later

HOWEVER, the new positions have already posted at least a small gain or neutral... making up for commissions.

SOLD PUTS! and bought others... bounce concerns

SOLD:
Nke July55put for .55 (bought yesterday at .10 man shoulda bought 50 options, yeah right... )
DIA sept118put: Repositioned elsewhere
USO aug110call: not sure if Oil $/barrel will break past 140 just yet...
NCOC shares: gonna put my $ elsewhere next week...

Bought:
SDS sept63call: action gaining, hope they start bidding it up
QQQQ aug48put: get deeper ITM, tech will suffer more than other sectors
Palm july5put: you think RIMM was bad?
RIM july100put: i doubt it will get to 100 but worth a shot
funny i tried to get RIMM july90put ystrday for like .06 didnt want to pay .10, should have tried harder no?

RIMM puts were the definite winner of the day...
I am not throwing a parade... in fact I am a bit worried about my puts getting pounded if we get a little bounce tomorrow... I can thank Mr. Tim for that one. He sees support @ 11.5K for the Dow...

Anyway, i think the market may very will stink it up for awhile... remember the Morgan Stanley guy? He said, "Catastrophe in the near future..." Well, to be honest 11,500 for the Dow is still subject to bounce, however BELOW 11,500 then you will have the media saying, "How low can you go..."

Congrats RIMM ʻputʻters... and well everyone who shorted earnings

All them got varying degrees of smack
first up the only big name that reported during session: MON: > -3% (as much as -6%)

Then you have the after-hour crowd:
RHT: -0.85%
RIMM: > -7%
NKE: > - 5%
ORCL > -3%

lovely isnt it? For bears... who are we kidding here FED? In any case, I may not have been able get a put position in any of them, but i sure was able to do so via the one ʻputʻ for the general market. i did failed to get puts in NKE (retail is not where you want to be) & but did RHT jan12.5put. I think their proposed guidance will smack them...

RIMM gets the ʻdisappointed awardʻ usually given to AAPL when there is a run up to earnings.

Energy (namely coals) and Ags made a nice rebound. Of interest is PCX which looked mighty powerful! It did a huge 9% turn around. Now that we know where it was, we have an idea of where it could go from here 160+ (sept165call looks tempting). being that i do options i can wait for clear signals at that point. HK mustered itself to finish green. i will await it breaking 44 and go with the momentum from there.

The big news left that awaits July 3rd! Then the nation can celebrate (mourn) its economic situation on July 4. How nice, throwing away or in this case blowing up more money in the form of colorful fireworks... I dont celebrate July 4 myself, but if anyone out there does... you can see the irony in all of this... but excuse my sarcasm.

Well Here We Go Bought USO call/DIA put and sold DBA

A perfect storm may not be brewing but it is a weird position to enter. I bought the following with a time stamp for my ref in relation to the FED 2:15.
USO Aug110call (1:40 pm EST) wish i bought it when it touched 106+
DIA Sept118put (1:59 pm EST) not enough trading with SDS calls.

As expected no rate change planned. the minute charts are these straight vertical lines that almost cover the whole chart in a couple cases, volatile for sure. But we are still left with the question... Now what?

btw, i dont have enough capital for RIMM I will watch everyone else have fun with that. i wouldnt be surprised if it went either way. iPhone wont have its full affect til next year at the earliest on RIMM thx to that dumb AT&T deal. Apple missed out on T-mobile & Alcatal customers. Anyway, they still wouldnt have gotten Verizon & Sprint with their different type of frequencies. The US is dumb when it comes to mobile carriers. RIMM has done an awesome job covering EVERY carrier possible in the US.

I Sold DBA (@2:11 pm EST too early yes...) but i couldnt help but see POT/MON/IPI/AGU, etc all taking hits today and not believe it would eventually catch up with DBA. so took a small loss... with the thought of using it next week...

US Crude Oil... then eventually the FED

So, inventories came in higher than expected in the U.S. And No strike in Nigeria.

USO getting pounded as is actual $oil/barrel

Next set up for today is in about 3 hours... the FED.

This is the most I have watched the market in awhile...

RIMM

It is getting whacked despite the NASDAQ being up... What a nice set up for a possible surprise earning... but one would be careful to venture in that direction prior to the FED.

Economic Clarity is needed to position for earnings.

Crude numbers should have been out by now... oh well waiting continues. back to work.

(update 509a HST: RIMM finds a first bounce on a low of 137+)

Predictable Bounce

So here was the bounce i was waiting for on Monday.

MON is getting pounded at the time of this post as well as all Shorts/bears.

The first part of the fun stuff begins in a few minutes with Crude Oil inventory numbers.

Posting again as able... i am after all at work (night shift)

DJI daily... weekly... is weAkly

So here is the Dowʻs daily... it has been trading under the 200 MA for some time now.


Now check out the weekly chart... either way some huge movement is coming soon.


Tomorrow could be a yawn if the FED holds rates. the thing is when they say any other stuff is the thing where things are uncertain. but what we do know is this...
If they indeed raise rates, Kaboom... maybe short your USO... but look out maybe you should short everything
If they cut rates, Kaboom get your USO!.
See, itʻs oil (and gold & the $US)... so what is new? NOTHING...

Argh!!!

I failed to get my first position. DIA Aug119put. And attempted to sell my Ag ETF in the form of DBA. didnt work either...

Anyway, the plan tomorrow is to position for a general fall in the market related to the FED. No one expects a rate cut announcement or plan. So why not position one call however unlikely it may be why not buy a DIA june122 or 123 call just in case with a DIA 120put for July, Aug or Sept... The same can be said for SPY & IWM. I am also looking at Sept/Dec 63call for SDS.

the point is i am looking to short indexes and the general market.
energy will still be a place of relative safety - altho i am down to only owning NCOC stocks... wish i sold them yesterday to position for what awaits tomorrow...

there happens to be a number of earnings reports tomorrow, namely RIMM, NKE, ORCL & MON. big names... the first three report after market closes. but i am more interested in waiting patiently for 2pm EST or 8am HST to plug in my market shorts... i may change my mind regarding everything above and lessen risk by buying Dec options instead...

ok i worked graveyard shift...back to sleep.

Bad News coming soon... (corrected after error)

Well, it is not like any bad news is a surprise. The thing is that if things are bad, but NOT AS BAD as the market expects - then we may have a small rally. Otherwise I think the following is worth positioning

News wise Wednesday... FED FOMC & housing
Thursday...... Oil inventories, GDP, home sales
Friday..... Inflationary numbers
Next week (July 3) is the big one... UNEMPLOYMENT. some say all the bad news is expected. So, what? Has it bottomed? Nope. (as an example UAL may be laying off hundreds of pilots!... people with 3 figures will no longer spend... logic)

so i have the following on my watch...
SDS calls, SRS calls, DIA & SPY puts...

In any case it is better to wait then hope to win a losing position...

(i had to fix this post as the news for this week were in error. I originally thought FED was today. nope...)

Another HK sold! PCX candlestick... RIMM... ADBE..

My last call with HK was triggered. 20% gain. Not bad at all... And I didnt decide in the moment. I might have held this longer had i not set a trigger, but my goals have become conservative with a view to preserving capital.

I will wait again for another entry. Patience is key for me...

PCX... hmm one candle stick pattern calls for three down days followed by a STRONG gap... we will see tomorrow. The other coals are on fire, it doesnt make sense to me why PCX wont follow the sector trend.


RIMM earnings reports June 25... after market. I am looking to do a ʻstrangleʻ. I really dont like tech right now, but the moves are quick and furious (altho it didnt work for me on ADBE puts, which btw has its 50 & 200 day MAʻs crossing last friday... going down from here i think.)

Whats Happened to PCX? SDS on hold...

Coal plays are green EVERYWHERE... but not for former leader PCX. Well, I am actually happy the call premiums were too expensive for me... but I still think it will head higher long term.

As for SDS, I didnt get a DOW pop that I was hoping for. It stands to reason that the weakness today has nothing to do with future credit/housing news... but Oil (again). sounds like a broken record/CD player...no no MP3 player...

There are a number of traders out there buying up RIG. I am content with HK. DBA though has slowed up, but may be due for a pop somewhere...

Looking For A Bounce & An Entry into an UltraShort

Well, the DOW closes down 200 last week. Under a somewhat important 12K level.
But as you know nothing goes straight down now does it. So this week I expect a strong bounce across the board. So am I bullish this week? Sure that is what the technicals say. HOWEVER, what I am really looking for is an entry to an ULTRASHORT, namely SDS.

The thing is I think the DOW will eventually head to *sarcastic gasp* below 11K by years end. So my thinking is an In the money SDS Dec55 or 60 call. Time and "catastrophic events" as Morgan Stanley puts it is very real... Unemployment numbers will not improve. There will be less vacationers out there to places like here (Hawaii: where the hotel occupancy has dropped).

SDS premiums are reasonable

Anyway, that is my main position I am looking at for the year. So, sure we get a bounce here and there. But it is when the floor that drops from under us that I am waiting for. (This is what Tim waits for, but it seems he waits for it like every other day)...

Oil/Energy/Ag will fill in the rest of the gaps for me. I still have HK & DBA long calls. I have 2 FXI puts that I bought ages ago, but it expires in January 2009.

Until the new president comes in, I think the economy numbers will stink up Wall Street and the reality of the recession will go full bore.

SOLD HK!

Mind you i should have woke up early this morning to get HK out. I left my Sept45call alone. But i took whatever profit was left on Sept40call. bummer it was up 60+% in like 2 days. wont happen again trust me. But for now the prudent move was preserving my position. HK i have questions as to it sticking here. But i saw it at 36 just 3 days ago... If it hangs here it should be ok. I am glad i didnt have a JULY call. That would have been disasterous if that is a word

DBA is still holding strong to its base

My eyes are still on PCX, HK, SKF, USO (channel continual)... and now IPI (bare 3 months old but look at it up 15% in one month).

I will let my rule hold... get some kind of profit from HK & DBA before speculating on something else. It is easier to lose money than to make it in this market. again... i will sell for quick profit from momentum stocks next time around...

Coal... Oil... and another new momentum...

They have this saying in one ʻpagan originated holidayʻ. I got coal in my stocking.

Well, i tell you that is kinda how i feel today. Oil up... Coal... well, more profit taking. (Gio did warn). Albeit I wish i cashed that 60% one day profit on one of my calls.

As for USO, it is definitely sticking to the channel. it is a buy here. but something no one should hold beyond another green day.

As for SKF. I am so bummed i dont have enough capital to get in there. i have been saying that it is a winner for the summer. *sigh*

Anyway, i will add today to my list of ways how not to trade... cash profits fast in momentum stocks like any other. especially into options expiration friday, which is a nice time to buy...

This summer will be kinda boring regarding sports(sorry baseball, i wait for penant/world series). Maybe Olympics. I think Kobe is has some angst to take out his frustration on the world. Pierce had a great NBA Finals. He should be on the Olympic team. Anyway, Kobe will reestablish himself. And all this comparison about him versus Jordan I think has finally stopped.

One last thing... IPI. There is another momentum stock for you...

Like I Said...Itʻs about the Oil... btw SKF may be a buy.

My failure yesterday to have gotten out of HK ITM meant some lost ground today. I am unsure as to what is going on with oil at this point. I still think there is a spike that will come somewhere. I am glad that I didnt get greedy and go for some short term calls.

It seems as the momentum stocks: coal/energy have some profit taking going on. For the most part their was some recovery, but their leader PCX took a whacking. I think it may be a buy at the end of Fridays session if it stays red. Is this a fakeout by the big guns? the Wall Street Mafia? maybe... But for the most part it is all about the oil... The trading range i observed (and posted something similar earlier) has been 132 to 135 if you are looking at a tight range, but it goes as far as 130 to 139.

i still have some cash... i aint touching it. Another opportunity awaits maybe as soon as Friday...

Dont get greedy... stay disciplined. Do i wish i cashed in the profit earlier? sure... but i am glad i have the calls a few months out to filter out my lack of... discipline... i may buy some USO puts to hedge my HK & DBA...

SKF looks good. i mean BSC executives in trouble with the Law... and MS predicting a catastrophic coming. Uh.. hello? Not it not new... Credit/housing/fuel... and watch out when a solid negative unemployment comes out... so for now, i think SKF may be the surest of the picks i have been watching... It too benefitted from Oil getting knocked around.

One more thing... AAPL

These analysts are nuts... Look at this latest iPhone figure being thrown out there... 150,000,000 in the next 10 years. Anyone can say that and have a theoretical chart/calculation to prove that theory. But common now, we are getting WAY ahead of ourselves.

I am not even sure the world as we know it will last that long to begin with (take that statement however you want.) I am tired of these analysts trying to MAKE news and manipulate stocks. but that is how it goes...

150 million? or 15 million every year the next 10 years sounds plausible... but it sure was made to grab some attention...

I refuse to touch AAPL until it crosses 200... well, firmly above 200, that is 205 to be exact...

Oil/Energy Strength... while PCX Amazing

I was really unsure at one point what to think of energy... I saw USO <108 (which i considered its base) being tested. A solid turn around to say the least. And I slept through the last 2 HR & 55 min of the market before doing the following. (5 minutes is too short of a time)

I added to my HK today. The thing is I tried to flip my ITM HK sept call to get enough capital for an entry into PCX, but alas my hands were too slow. I was only able to buy an OTM HK Sept45call. *sigh*

Mind you i still like HK this far out...But PCX is a monster (This years FSLR)! I say 200! But if I cannot get in Gio has given me a couple choices
That is NCOC & ICO (I like ICO because of the options of course), they are dirt cheap. But i wasnt quick enough to get in that one either.

I think i want to also add UNG to the mix somewhere down the line...

For now, consider it a nice bounce off a bottom for Oil. The real time (you see to your right) shows it pulling back a bit at the time of this post but, the $/barrel is solidifying itself above $135 (having been stuck 133 to 134 the last few sessions). It will have to break through 139 as the next resistance. From there $150 may be realized as some suggest by July 4. That is capitalism for yah.

FDX & MS Earnings & Oil/Energy

FDX well with gas prices up is anyone surprised? Puts would have been nice, but i have only so much capital to go around.

MS also stunk things up as well. Man i wish i did dip into SKF... It was a bit too pricey for me. but one might spec this goes past its 52 week high.

Oil inventories: 1030 am report will be the nail in the coffin for most stocks, unless you are in energy... Oil $/barrel is >135 as i type this.

Anyway, i may add to my HK, but will look elsewhere too...maybe CRK... i will be patient and wait for the actual crude report. There is much time to make moolah in energy...

Waiting... On PCX. HK/DBA solid for now. Oil tomorrow

Well, DBA & HK are working out nicely, wish a bought a couple more calls, but it is always a good idea to get a pay off before adding to risk. I missed Gioʻs earlier post on BTU (i was actually looking at that earlier this year), it is a favorite among coal plays.

ADBE & LEH were poorly timed, but had i waited to buy their puts just prior to earnings and farther out in time, i would have had a return.

CRK (as suggested by Gio) i noticed had solid technicals. you cannot dispute the chart. Compare FSLR last year with CRK this year and you can see where this is going.

In regards to PCX... there is some consolidating going on. the upside is real. Crude oil numbers will be out tomorrow... will see how it affects other energy related securities. But i need to find a way to get in PCX for sure... it has everything going for it, newly publicly traded, the $ are flowing into its sector, and the charts...

LAKERS play tonight. I think they will lose. But if they are going to take advantage of the Celtics aging/injured team then tonight is the night. I am tired of how the media keeps bringing up Gasol being soft (or maybe that is a good motivation thing) and how much the Celtics are banged up... Hey you dont see the Lakers crying over not having Bynum. The series would have been done by now if he was around. Would Garnett or Perkins be labelled soft if they were getting bulldozed by Bynum? Nope. They would say weight and strength advantage. That is all that is. I respect Doc Rivers for not complaining. He is a good coach. The Lakers have grown up ALOT this year. I expect them to bust their butts in the summer. Gasol should lift some weights... Everything else in his game is solid, he just needs to do more squats and upper body stuff to deal with the Power Forwards next year. I do predict that the Finals next year will be....

Celtics & Lakers again...

No sports to watch until September Football... Which is good - I have important stuff to get done until then.

Argh!!! Couldnt Pull the Trigger

That USO <109 kept staring at me... nope "not gonna do it". It was EXTREMELY tempting to position for a bottom channel entry. Looking at the 5 day chart, USO could actually get whacked tomorrow.

ADBE did ok. So, no bear parade there. LEH, yawn...

DBA & HK are small negatives for me at this point. We will see what happens come June 18... there will either be a breakout for oil or at worse it flattens off the rest of the summer.

Oil...Channel...

If you bought at the close yesterday and proceeded to put a sell order today... congrats to you... USO is stuck for now to this 108 to 113 channel. This may be consolidating towards some sort of spike (June 18 specifically). I am no longer putting anything in as my lame June120call still sits. I am glad I cashed out the July97call last week.



I was so tempted to jump into USO when it dipped at my supposed entry today <109. But I went with Gio on this one... Other ETFs have been getting some love. And why risk doing calls in july when i can move them 3 to 4 months away... That being the case i went with DBA Oct40call & HK Sep40call. Why stress with the time decay... whew... They both like oil going up while not getting stuck like USO.

In regards to LEH/ADBE... I didnt put much $ into them, but my feeling was that BSC didnt go down right away, but a few days after earnings. As for ADBE it has til July to get smashed so i am not too concerned about 5 calls costing me $35.

All those that shorted AAPL on the skinny Steve are just plain hilarious... if your entry was 170 today you are golden.

Mixed Messages On Oil...Other stuff... Lakers (likely lose next game)

So someone from Saudi says they will increase oil production by 200K barrels/month. Then another news item says that OPEC will not make any news decisions on production amounts until Sept 9. hmmm. Anyway, i think USO goes down a bit on Monday.

The real news this week includes earnings reports from LEH & GS. I think GS will again buck their competitors with a profit. However, guidance and observations on banks/credit in general will be key.

This will be a week of uncertainty in regards to the way Wall Street reacts in dissecting statements from earnings conferences.

What is on my radar is PCX. Will it cool off on oil news or be resistant and carry on the momentum. Will banks drag the whole market down? Anyway, it is key to see where the money is flowing to.

Another thing to watch is DBA (thx Gio). The option contracts are plentiful and relatively cheap. For example an Oct40call@3.43 is not bad at all. You have both time on your side and it is in the money. Food prices will not go down this summer, especially if the fuel folks are still making gas out of our Food. Thx guys...

I do have a few puts worth mentioning: ADBE & LEH. that is all...cheap stuff that will only score on disaster like reports.

So, watchlist: ADBE, DBA, LEH, PCX, USO, SKF.

Lakers stave off elimination. But i think it is a tough call the rest of the way. I think that they lose Game 6... What i read about regarding game 5 was totally expected. It is interesting that the Lakers score most of their points in the first period. Imagine if they had the killer instinct (and Bynum). I think the series would have been 4-1 Lakers. But Bynum is nowhere to be found til next year. At this juncture I think I will congratulate the Lakers on a great season... I would force them to watch how they blew a 20+point lead into half of the 3rd period if they reach the Finals next year.

SKF... Looks good - but wait...

I am on the watch on energy. But i tell you the one thatʻs like a ticking time-bomb INHO is SKF. A deep in the money call looks good.

A younger dude that taught me some stuff recommends energy... that is LOCAL, in North America.
Here is his rundown: PCX, CRK, HK. I listed them in the order that i like... I mean look at the chart yourself!

Well, i never knew of these tickers. I am totally blown away by their charts. I pick PCX as the equivalent to last years FSLR. There are a number of things i like besides the technicals. I always liked coal... it is a usual pick for winter, but in this case if you wait to get in at that time, you will be slapping yourself silly...

One nice parameter in choosing a stock is finding one with momentum with <15 years history... or relatively new. And you can see that PCX carries that new hot stock... it has been public for like hmm 7 months? now June 18 is a big day for oil... if it goes down, will the coal sector fall with it? Donʻt know.

Anyway, thx to Gio, i have been waiting for something else besides USO & V... and SKF is somewhat long in the tooth (but do not discount the fact that there is a ton of bad news that awaits the rest of this year...) For now PCX looks to be something to grab on to with a lot of option action. I am looking for deep calls.

Next Year Lakers... back to USO

Well a nice entry (that i missed). I didnt touch USO @ 110. It did finish up, but i think going forward it will be going sideways a bit and then BAM! a spike... much as it did when it broke to 113 last friday.

I have no choice regarding USO but to wait it out until it finds another pull back.

As i said RIMM will be getting hit for the time being... But my attention is on ADBE taking the brunt.

Speaking of taking the brunt... The Lakers blew a 24 pt lead, which almost happen to the Celtics in game 2. I didnt actually watch it happen. And i was glad for that. The series is basically over. The Lakers miss Bynum.

Lakers 1-3. I think they will win the next game. But winning all 3 in a row... well you know how that usually goes. I am sure the Purple and Gold people as myself dont like their team losing, but at least the future is VERY bright... The only team stopping them next year are the Blazers... i dont think Houston can handle the Lakers front line.

I know the series is not over, but i must say... i have accepted defeat... and being that i follow the Raiders, it is something that i have gotten use to.

I do think that after this year... the Lakers will be on a mission next year... btw, my Penguins lost too... both in the championship of the respective sport. Maybe that means the Raiders will be in the Superbowl... maybe not.

Waiting... USO...

So i got the pull back on SKF. But i think it would be best to wait it out until GS reports June 17. I am unsure how much LEH goes lower - but it will. I predict all the news about them removing the board is meant to ease things. But again, GS continues to buck all other banks/financial in terms of earnings day

USO is having a rally second half of the day. I am looking at maybe getting back in at July97call (again). It seems cheap here. I wish i was able to buy at the open... But i know enough not to play with poison. If it gets <110. It looks to be a buy. A solid base has formed above 100 and a minor one at 108 (wish i got in...)

Looking at some other charts. RIMM looks like it will go slowly down for some time - until earnings. It keeps beating and with adequate guidance. But for the time being it may be a nice short next week. Let this week pan out. AAPL usually gets a beating in comparison to RIMM as is the case today. I saw that coming...

Lakers/Celtics. Lakers are still in survivor mode. They have to at least win tonight to keep the series going. Otherwise, hasta la vista.

btw, windows Vista must really stink if MSFT is allowing people to downgrade to XP after buying a Vista box. I havent experience any problems with my very short time in Vista. But all these horror stories come out when i talk to Vista users. Windows 7 should be better since it sounds like they are actually taking their time on the basic foundations of the OS... blabbing again.

SOLD USO!!! And bought stuff... And useless basketball blab

I ended up selling my July97call. And keeping my June120call (maybe i should have sold a little of it at a small loss). There is some oil news tomorrow that could send USO flying, but who knows... Decided to take the 30%+ profit now. It happened that my timing was pretty spot on... just before USO bumped against 112. It closed @111. Nothing to gloat about, i had a bigger profit this past Friday had i just paid attention to my account. A really bad habit. Avoiding looking at something painful will only get worse later.

Bought a meager amount of V (a bit too early), but still <80. I think it goes low to mid 70s from here.

I also got a few of ADBE June35puts@.05. I think there have been just a few reports on possible problems for ADBE going forward. But no big news yet... so, some damaging guidance may pop up... and a 10 to 12.5% pull back is more than possible...

I failed to get LEH June20put. I tried to get in @.48, but it ran off to 1.18 (bummer) while i was sleeping. May try again tomorrow as they report Monday. I am unsure whether the bad news is already priced in. Thus, I am considering SKF. But i need to see some pull back for a better entry that may not arrive.

Otherwise, the vast meager $ i have is in cash. Just trying to be patient...

That is what the Lakers need to be against the Celtics - patience. If they do win it, which would be against logic based on the series so far, it will be a huge comeback - even if they are playing at home the next 2 games. And the Media are all up on the Celtics side, that will either motivate the purple and gold, or mean they have to try again next year. Laker fans likely prefer being the underdog rather than the favorite in this setting. A sense of urgency is needed on their part... The Celtics have always shown it... they already experienced enough of it in the East post season.

Forgetting Passwords

I am thankful that Ameritrade provides additional security if i was to even look at my account. BUT, the downside is when i cant remember the answers to the security questions. lame on me.

Anyway. FXP looks like it can blow up right after the Olympics. I still have a couple ridiculous Jan50puts bought back earlier this year.

SKF is probably the best place to be right now. much better than USO. But because i cant get into my account at the time of this typing, i have no way of getting in. LEH keeps sinking and may actually go green at next weeks earnings report as all the negative news may already be priced in.

Btw, V is below 80 again. Is it a buy here? Dunno but it is at a recently weekly low. I would buy below 75.

I have to get back home just to get into my account.

LEH, USO & Another useless Lakers post...

Well i was hoping today (actually yesterday 6/10/08) that LEH would find some positive territory all to allow me a nice entry on a LEAP put. Didnt happen.

And to make matters worse, it seems as though USO has lost some of the momentum i previously mentioned. The actual oil comod is up as i type this, but it doesnt seem to have as much of an effect if it doesnt have a strong specs on the call side. The strengthened dollar also has cut USO's legs a bit.

Lakers down 1-2. Celtics could have won this one. If it were Pierce instead of Allen that was the hot hand, I think the Lakers would have lost.

I never actually watched the game as i promised in a previous post. At least they wont get swept. All the talk of Laker's bench being superior is not true at all. Outside of Vuja*&^% & maybe Farmar - everyone else seems hesistant. The Lakers need after the post season may include someone from Detroit... I dont think the Lakers will have any problem attracting a player to take a pay cut and get a ring in the process.

It doesnt get any easier in THIS series for the Lakers IMHO. However, remember that this was the first time the Lakers beat them this season. Oh, and they need to practice some free throws.

USO Lame

Dollar strengthens today leading to weaker value of oil. My June120call is practically dead unless another spike happens.

Everything bullish is up today.... Power of oilʻs influence.

Lakers 0-3 tonight? Maybe... you know things are not headed the right way if most people pick you to win. Its tough being the favorites and losing.

Oh Well... USO... No surprises this time

Profit taking... In the biggest way. And i must say that is the only thing that bums me out about the whole deal. Had i even known about the think spiking on Friday. I would have sold in a heart beat. But as it is, that was a whole lot better than being -%50 in the loss column. i especially wished i could have cashed out my June120call. July has some time on its side.

For the time being, Oil/barrel actually is over $135 as i type this. So, where it goes from here? Not sure. But the momentum is towards the upside. There are some oil related reports this thursday/friday.

As for iPhone 3G i didnt expect anything out of the ordinary. A coleague asked if i would take call position on AAPL today based on WWDC, but i was hesistant to say anything definite. The true test is how it will sell on July 11. But as i said before, this stock is poison until it finds a solid base ABOVE 200.

And one other position to mention is LEH. it reported a bit early... but it may be a good LONG Put/or LEAP Put. If it is anywhere near as much trouble as BSC, the reward will be great....

Lakers 0-2. No surprise there either. I may be a Laker follower, but versus the 1980ʻs i DONT hate this Celtic team. There are some class acts. I just hope the Lakers can make it a series.

Oil... Again... Surprised.

Funny thing happened today. I walk into work and told a fellow co-worker. "Stay away from USO! I am losing a bundle..." Guess what happened today. I was surprised just literally a few minutes ago, expecting to wallow in my sorrow in USO. (HEY THAT RHYMES!)

OIL HAD ITS BIGGEST DAY... according to finance reporters. Some saying it may go to $150 BEFORE July... yikes!

Well, i am no way gloating... i am in fact shocked. My spec on USO was on, BUT the timing of my buy was terrible. Recently when the thing crossed <100, i thought, man it would be a definite buy here. But i was already sitting on losses as i bought it back at about 103 with option call strikes placed @97 & 120.

I am unsure exactly where it goes from here. but there is no way it goes below 100. It was a solid breakthrough its previous high.

Tough... Dumb...

Well selling V has now fully eaten me in the butt. Its well over where i sold. $78/79. Mind you i do believe it will keep going up albeit eventually. Do i regret selling? Yes... Do i wish i bought below 80? Yes...

My USO has taken such a beating. The whispers are that Oil has peaked. You know what, i dont believe these guys. True, the media is pumping the belief that gas will go up indefinitely. The mix signals are burning everyone to some degree.

Something similar came when the street dudes burned all the shorts on airlines. If u look at my past posts i was in disbelief how that rally happened. A fake out to the greatest degree. If you look at them today... Most if not all are single digits. I havent looked at hotels yet. But they will fall this summer as well. Hawaii alone has booked the lowest occupancy in months...

Now as regards USO, the storms/hurricanes would obviously spike this thing. But it is all speculation. If USO dips below 100... It's adios for me. It looks like i will be back to meager cash when that happens.

My buddy elsewhere has a LONG recommendation on UA. I for the most part agree. It is the next Nike. It is just above its lows. Anyway, the fact that it is cheap mid 30s has me taking a serious look. The economy just stinks and any company that just meets earnings may be all that is needed to get through these bad times.

The ultimate LONG out there is still out there. AAPL. Look for a possible spike this friday as details of the iPhone 2.0/3G whatever will be out.