Possible FAKEOUT... Follow Through will confirm this tomorrow

Well, AAPL sold into earnings. Usually it stays flat day of earnings... Today was a little different. The suspicious buying right after the closing bell added to evidence of a 'fake-out'. The big boys scared the Long buyers into selling... I am not the least bit surprised. I also will not be surprised if AAPL went lower in a few days, even if the general market went up on the possible upcoming added bail out plan.

I have no time to mess with this nonsense. Thus, my meager $$$ went elsewhere... MSFT put (hold), SNE put (bought), HOT (attempted buy). I have moved on to the next opportunity. No regrets... just more experience.

UPDATE 11:55 PM HST
Dissecting the numbers for AAPL has been confusing for some. Especially with the way iPhone is being accounted for. But Steve Jobs special visit on their earnings conference said one thing... iPhone (which is Mac OS X) has gone beyond its sibling products. It accounts for nearly 40% of their revenue or $4.6 Billion. They sold 6.9 M 3G iPhones this Q. Can you imagine if they pull of their goal of 40 M iPhones sold next year. Apple is a monster... They would be even bigger if it had not been for exclusive contracts with AT&T and Orange. Competition from Android & Blackberry Storm will keep Apple from getting lax. But the iPhone is way ahead at this point. And just think, the desktop/laptop portion of their biz keeps going at 30% growth YOY. It is no wonder that AAPL gapped up afterhours.

Know this tho, i will eventually buy puts in anticipation of the Longs selling the stock on a spike.

AAPL... TOO FAST FOR ME... BOUGHT ELSEWHERE

The plan was to buy puts today. But they opened red... I am still hoping that it opens hard to the low end tomorrow so i can buy cheaper calls. I would be surprised as i said in a previous post if they beat the streets GUIDANCE... they did it last year. In any case, like all holiday seasons, i think AAPL will end higher as the year ends. But i will not jump into any puts... maybe this is a fakeout to get calls holders to sell... if it is then its ok. i have other 'options' to get in on. Besides, AAPL will go down in a few days even if the afterhours end with a gap up. So, there is always another opportunity. Just possibly not as good as it stand here. Was looking at the Jan 160 call & Apr 190 look good to me... too late as i look at the clock. I look forward to their report...
UPDATE:
In fact looking at the after-hours prior to earnings there is some bottom buying (4:16 pm EST)

Thus, here are my 'better' selections for my circumstances...

SNE
There was unusual put option action in SNE. Its in the red today yet one of the puts fell 60%. Well, i went ahead and bought it.

HOT
I am trying to get in on a Nov 15 put. Is the economic situation priced in? Maybe. So, i have a limit order. It should remain cheap enough for me to get in tomorrow. if not then i will kick myself again.

Wednesday Pre-Market/After-Market... And OPEC

I realize it is still nowhere near wednesday. but i figured i'll put a heads up for myself and anyone who is still looking at my sad blog. I will post these despite not being very interested in getting in any of them. But these can all move quickly in either direction.

Pre-Market:
AMZN: the internet version of Walmart. they might surprise this holiday quarter.
GSK: another pharmaceutical giant
KMB: health care supplies. its a tough biz, alot of competition in one hospital i know very well.

Aftermarket:
FFIV: networking... basically tech/enterprise.
ALL: insurance and some banking. 'are you in good hands?'
VAR: cancer therapy systems. interesting, there seems to be some option call action.

Thursday is much more interesting to me and a much longer list of big names...

OPEC
hey, i really thought they were going to do this before it got to the 70s. But cutting production was not at all a surprise.

Selective After-market Monday/Pre & Post-Market Tuesday...

These are not necessarily positions to enter as much as tell signs for certain sectors. I only like AAPL (see note) because its predictable. This time of the year is still following history for the most part. coals pick up this time of the year - winter is a couple months away.

Post-Monday
AXP: they never seem to beat.
NFLX: solid offerings. but options are all over the place, i dont play that.
TXN: semi. toss up.

Pre-Tuesday
AKS: steel.
MMM & DD: industrial. i have no experience in this sector.
CAT: slowing eco not good
COH: retail. pricey bags. but they do cater to the those with more $
FCX: metals/comods. toss up short term.
LXK: they should be a little worried. i would lean bearish.
OXPS: just ok volume. bearish
PFE, SGP: pharmaceutical giant. i got no clue whats up in this sector.
PUK: retirement plans & insurance. toss up
SY: software infrastructure/IT for enterprise & mobile. bearish
UAUA: gas down good. economy spending stinks. toss up.
USB: glad they are still in business. but i would NOT touch banks
YHOO: i got no clue here. is google helping them or not?

Post-Tues
*AAPL: tech/retail. Apple is the lowest risk in terms of predictability. the iPhone numbers will be awesome but its all about guidance. i am set to buy a call on Wednesday morning and hope for a gap up. and will might buy a put prior to earnings... if AAPL surprises with an aggressive guidance i will be shocked, altho they did it last year prior to holiday quarter. Either way, this is the same story at Apples every earnings conference. Then again... i might just avoid the whole thing and stick with Microsoft/Sony/hotel puts.
BRCM: toss up
EW: health medical equipment.
ETFC: investment/broker.
VMW: so beat up... wish i paid attention. it was a strong sell. i missed it.

SOLD!!! RHT put.... Hoping GOOG guides high...

Sold RHT put @ 2.15... missed selling it earlier for 1000% gain after cost. i bought the thing at .20, i may rebuy this put later on a green day in tech. i decided to sell when i noticed it was up 72% today on unusual buying.

otherwise, regarding tech, i am still holding MSFT put til earnings and may add to it at that point. but i think SNE is weaker fundamentally...

cannot wait to see GOOG earnings report... "please guide higher"... make it easy to on my 'lateness' to add more puts... if not well, my existing puts will be on fire again tomorrow.

Nothing is clear cut... sometimes just plain illogical

The few stocks related to earnings that i looked at a few minutes ago are bucking the the gloom and doom of the economy. And some are just priced into the stock... well, thats what some people think anyway...
SHW (you would think would sink with lack of homes to paint) is up nicely
NOK missed badly but guided ok (claiming the lower end will make up for losses going forward)
BTU is up a good percentage on profits... winter is coming a few months.

logical drops COF, MER, C so far... but lets see where they close...

The interesting sector to me has been airlines... despite the slowing economy, oil dropping has shored up their stock. all of them are in the green.

The big cheese that we all await is GOOG (and to a lesser extent IBM). i am just plain tempted to buy a call to spite everyone. the puts are on fire... in fact i wish i did when i woke up this morning. but i rather take my money elsewhere. i.e. puts in hotels, and a few tech related (SNE, DELL.. and possible strangles SNDK, STX, WDC).

So, its GOOG time... let them set the tone for tech... i hope they do meet earnings and guide well. it makes setting up puts for the losers a whole lot easier.

YUP, I WAS RIGHT... SHOULDA BOUGHT APPL PUTS AT THE OPEN.

Everything dropped from the opening green. And the street was disappointed in Apple's lack of a lower price point. Granted they do have a laptop starting at $999, but that is last years top line 'white' Macbook, not the new aluminum Macbooks. Look at any October put is was about a 1000% gain. Oh well... it seems like the rumors sites have become a nice way to position for these puts.

Apple implied that their new process for creating the new MacBooks will cut production costs. So, their guidance going forward could actually be impacted with this development. The other unknown is how much $$$ Apple is banking with their App Store for the iPhone & iPod touch. One has no choice but to position for a strangle. An easier proposition is what i am already holding (MSFT puts prior to earnings). And DUG calls were indeed a buy opportunity today.

Another missed opportunity... but the nice thing is there are more in the future.

AAPL... EXPECT VOLATILITY...(POSTING PRIOR TO OPEN 350 am HST)

Well, the rumor that was a MacBook that was <$900 was apparently mixed up with a new display monitor that Apple was releasing. But we wont know for sure until the Apple Event today. Why is this important? It means that Apple may not be positioning itself to gain a significant marketshare, rather continue delivering products that are superior to the competition at the same price points. So, its business as usual

The Market may very well be disappointed in this development. I am tempted to buy puts today in AAPL. The thing is Steve might release something that we had no clue about and blow us away in time for the holiday shoppers.

He may even mention the iPhone numbers as well... in any case it is a tough stock/option to trade.

GENERAL MARKET
I remain on the sideline... with thoughts that the rally was indeed, a relief rally. Earnings from a varying sectors point to a slowing economy. The Great Depression stuff was definitely overblown. That might have been the signal to buy the bottom on Friday and sell today on the relief.

The BOUNCE!!! Woulda/Coulda/Shoulda... AAPL

BOUNCE
It was so expected, but i thought i would be more of a 500-700, not 1000+ pts. Anyway, my puts remain... And are still profitable. They will stay intact with earnings coming out on a few companies. And until the election, i will leave most of them alone. As for the Oil shorts such as DUG... might this be an opportunity to get back in? Its back at levels found just 6 days ago off from mid 80 high on Friday. Who knows... but i have my eye set on something else...

AAPL
i still remember that thought of AAPL being in the 80s: "This is sooo undervalued." This was my only pick on the Long side, which i didnt execute. I was out doing 'volunteer' work this past week and didnt do a thing about my portfolio. I surely should have bought this thing under 90. The calls were so dirt cheap... Oh well... I was waiting for earnings next week anyway, but tomorrows MacBook event might send these calls out of my reach...

Going back to work today after a nice break for some 'more important things'. So, all is well...

APPL Power... Saves NASDAQ...

Well, like what i said in a previous post, the buyers are lining up for QUALITY STOCKS... and the combination of hype regarding new MacBooks at lower price points bodes well for Apple's stock. It shows that the company is prepared to deal with the bad times in the near future if not at present. But wow... dont you wish you bought AAPL when it was 82+ just a few days ago?

I am looking closer at my puts. I am unsure if the Market has actually touched bottom. AAPL lives in its own space at times related to the general market or even the rest of tech (everything else can go green and AAPL goes red, today was the opposite). It still has a growth story. Any other stocks out there that have similar potential as AAPL are hard to find. So, fill me in if you hear of them. Anyway, i await their earnings Oct 21. At that time i will decide what to do.

More Red (2 hr 20 min to closing bell). AAPL holding its own on quality or hyped MacBooks

GENERAL MARKET
Still falling. Someone noted we needed 5 more days of triple digit falls to bottom out. I think it might take until the election to bottom out myself IMHO. Well, my puts are still on fire... i wonder how bad my 401K/403b are... Anyway, its not like i will see any of this money any time soon.

AAPL
MacBook/MacBook Pro announcement this coming tuesday is bolstering the stock. It seems their is somewhat of a flight to quality as well. The rich can still afford to buy Apple goods. And with the prospect of Apple offering an initial MacBook price point of $800 is strategically the correct move. They actually announced that margins will be lowered with the next product cycle. But my guestimate is that components will actually get cheaper out of oversupply and the slowing economy in general. So, in the whole big picture of things... Apple is a money making machine. Outside of the iPod/MP3 space, they are nowhere near in saturating the worldwide PC/Laptop/Smartphone space. There is a distinct shift happening. Apple itself looks stable, but i still venture to say that their huge numbers in Laptop/iPhone sales will not prevent the stock from taking a hit related to their usual earnings guidance (or 'underguidance')...

EARNINGS LISTING
I have posted selected stock listings again on the main screen... this past week has been more of shooting fish in barrel for the bears, while bulls are nowhere to be found except in the handful of quality stocks with incredible growth prospects against the slowing economy (i.e. AAPL).

DOW + 'N" = DOWN... AND THERE YOU GO...

As unfortunate as the market is directional wise. My sticking to my guns (wishing i added more) on puts has surprised me again. My lowly acct has doubled in a matter of 4 days. And i only performed 2 trades. Sold a chunk of VISN & bought MSFT put... and earnings has even gotten here yet. That is where i thought the DOW would near 8500. Never would i thought to have seen this coming.

So, i was surprised to find that not doing anything has doubled my portfolio. It is scary to figure out how much lower this market is going to go down. Because no firm bottom has been reached. I think a bounce back of course is in order tomorrow. But what a surprise to see how much panic is on the Street.

Specific stocks i have kept my eye on...
FXI (puts) China has spent so much on their infrastructure and the Olympics. They have inflation problems. My old puts are on fire for now. I think it would be prudent to sell this thing off prior to Nov 4 election.
AAPL (watch) has held steady. Altho it is probably a day-traders dream (and nightmare). They have MacBook buzz coming around and a some numbers on iPhone that will blow everyone away
RIMM (watch) held steady, but quality issues are turning up with their new Blackberry Storm, bad time to mess up
MSFT (puts) has already picked a direction from its last earnings. Things arent getting any better.
RHT (puts) is back down again. Fundamentals stink. Redistribution of Linux hasnt guaranteed $. Vista has actually pushed Windows-based coorporations into companies like Red Hat. So, we shall see what MSFT says about the matter.
AUY (stock)what a waste. i should have sold this thing and held it to cash to participate in more puts.
VISN (2 shares ha!) so much for a solid future, Asia has joined the U.S. crisis.

And so as it goes... i got to do nothing related to making money today (its all about being out in 'field'), and i still made money. cool deal. and to top it off someone treated my wife and i to lunch yesterday and today...

Emergency Rate Cut. Sorry Ben, shoulda announced this right after your lecture (RIMM news too)

Stocks will stabilize with this news, but the thing is just another band-aid. The earnings reports coming out show how bad the economy will be in the months or years to come. A true Bear Market has been in place for awhile.

RIMM
They finally released their touchscreen phone called Blackberry Storm. They are advertising it as a phone that will take the world by 'Storm', lame, but i get the point. It surely is better than those Windows Sienfeld commercials. The thing that stinks is that its exclusively with Verizon. So its good for the VZ crowd. I have T-Mobile and will soon be stuck with Android as my only 'touchscreen' option. Competition is indeed good, and they have a built in landscape mode for SMS/Email that Apple should quickly integrate, now that RIMM is 'pushing Apples buttons' (pun intended). The Blackberry Storm is noticably fatter than the iPhone and has nowhere near the 3rd party software (or developer community) that is behind the App Store. Still, at least they are not giving up. This should indeed hold down the fort for RIMM.

The question is will Apple exercise its 'Multitouch' patents? If they do, look out... They already learned a hard lesson with MSFT using a clause in a contract that allowed them to produce Windows. So, is Apple able to exercise their intellectual property, when there were other Touchscreens prior to them releasing an iPhone? We shall see.

In either case RIMM at least stays respectable. Releasing 'Storm' will save their stock (and VZ) in the short-term going forward. The iPhone is just in a different class of smartphones. Its an actual hand computer running Mac OS X. And it shows... but consumers often want what the need and have no desire to have all the options afforded them via the iPhone. You can bet that the storm will be given the death name 'iPhone-killer'. RIMMs end to end services have proved for the most part more reliable (despite a few system failures this year) than AT&T. Interesting Smartphone battles, now that Apple has some competition.

ANOTHER... LIKE WE DIDNT SEE THIS COMING... DOW <10K AND APPLE SELLS >10M iPhones

DOW JONES
Less than 10K!!! Tim must be dancing in the streets if not on a bull...I had to post today... My option positions are so tiny... but they are banking 100%+ (puts in RHT, MSFT, FXI. my lone stock which i forgot to sell was AUY. and so GLD as a choice over AUY a month ago would have been better. but hey... no sense crying over that. i am already lost for the year.

AAPL and iPHONE
As for Apple. They seem to have sold their 10M iPhone wayyyy ahead of expectation (10M in 2008 was the stated goal). And so with their earnings announcement soon (i think Apple has announced plans to conduct a conference call to discuss financial results of its fourth fiscal quarter on Tuesday, October 21, 2008 at 2pm PT/5pm ET.). it will be interesting to watch... for one thing no one expected Apple to have possibly sold 7M this Q (their 4th Q). The high estimate was 5M. iPhone is the #1 Smartphone in the U.S. However, the whole Macro/Micro-eco has surely made AAPL dirt cheap as it actually dipped to 87 today... and rallied strong to finish green today...

Patience is necessary... my plan short term... keep all my puts (RHT, MSFT, FXI) and hedge with AAPL calls around earnings. The plan is buy a call and put prior to earnings... after the last earnings, where AAPL gave poor guidance, the stock opened down huge only to be barely in the red. So, a put prior to earnings and buying a call at the open would have netted 500% or in one case .01 option turned into 1.0... in real money $1 to $100. But who knows... AAPL has announced good guidance for 1Q last year. Thus, having one call prior to earnings could work out as well. We'll see what is going on at the time... it will be a decision made based on varying factors.

And the newest MacBooks apparently are rumored to have a air craft quality aluminum production process that in the PC world is totally revolutionary. In which they take a block of aluminum and mold it into a laptop - interesting, but still a rumor. What we do know is what the CFO stated at last Q earnings: 'Apple's competitors won't be able to match' for some time to come.' hmm. can't wait. my wife needs to dump her piece of junk Dell. btw, all windows based PCs not investing in Linux are doomed. Ironically, Macs are the fastest machines to run Windows... who woulda thunk it...

Technical Bounce

Perfect... if anything I wished i waited to get in on my lone MSFT put today. The market is crazy. To illustrate, GOOG alone had a 50 pt swing. Then afterhours 90? Logic prevailed with AAPL, altho i think the stock will return lower eventually. Fundamentally sound companies will have some fight, but the timing of entry is terrible. They have awesome products coming online, the question is will the rich and more affluent keep spending. Their secret cash cow is the APP store.

Too many things going on. Keep paying your debts... and benefit from cheaper stocks (and homes) in the near future.

SOLD VISN & MOT PUTS/BOUGHT MSFT PUT

My previous post i said i sold a couple puts that recovered most of the cost. it is set to expire soon... so, i took what i could and sold.

The eco stinks. MSFT reports... Vista stinks as it is actually helping Apple sell Macs, XBOX not as good as Wii, iPhone/Blackberrys/future Andriod better than WinCE/Mobile. What else is there? Hmm. The CEO is an idiot and totally has no clue that he is costing his company. They bailed out of there own Ads, $300 million for that thing with Seinfeld.

Anyway, MSFT NOV 20 put. They report in late october. I finally sold my loser VISN.

Wow... my old PUTS are green... Housecleaning

Well, the market stinks for the bulls. but the long-term investor has to be smiling. Quality companies are dirt cheap. The puts that have been losers for have turned green. (about time). I only sold MOT Oct 7 puts. I have no idea when they report earnings, but you can be sure i am all in on that on the bear side. Tho RIMM & AAPL are getting whacked at this point, they along with NOK may very well make MOT worthless on the wireless side.

Man, is APPL cheap. Their forward P/E is now obscenely ridiculous. We can thank Morgan Stanley. The govt should check out MS if they are messing with the market. I mean, isnt it obvious? This just shows me that i should consider buying LEAP calls. By 2011, Apple may very well have a worldwide mobile phone market share of 20%, you heard it hear first. Thats if this world continues (if you know what i mean)

Someone asked if they should buy GLD instead of my pick AUY. Well, i guess the answer is yes.

With all the red in the market... this is a GOOD thing. This should have happened months ago. Like when my portfolio was basically ALL puts. The FED shouldnt have done all this dumb stuff to 'ease' something that required a radical changes. This is an eventuality that had to take place. And thus, i have found no reason to be fully vested in this market. Guys like Tim are banking HUGE coin.

Like what i keep saying... Pay off your debts, because all the $US will one day be frozen. No more loans... so be responsible, dont further your debt!!!

Like We didnt see this coming... RIMM disappoints, Wall St panics

RIMM
Well, the proof is out there that RIMM is losing market share to iPhone, but they are now investing on expanding with the flip-pearl. i am not sure how this will turn out, it seems that the trend is toward ʻsliderʻ phones instead with huge screens. but still, at least they were smart enough to create a pearl for a specific segment. So, they are doing something about losing ground to Apple

Wall Street is in panic mode... RIMM missed by a penny!!! and at the time of this post, is down almost 20% in aftermarket trading. A nice contrarian move may be in place here. cheap calls are now to be found. and any good news coming in a few days can make those calls go green, tho not necessarily in the money. so, a slight gap up is likely after an initial sell-off in the morning. My guesstimate is about no longer than 1/2 hour into tomorrows session that RIMM will build a floor and buyers come back in (barring any bad news).

But hey my theory is easy to make with no since i am not ʻactivelyʻ trading... but i am still observing... like what i said in my last post. Pay off your debts. Dont owe anyone anything. And no matter what you might miss in the market, at least you know you are winning by eliminating the bills. In the grand scheme of things you end up with more $$$, since you are losing less.

So, beware... things will continue choppy until the next Prez gets elected. no one knows what to do... the govt is just as confused as anyone else. not good... so, again... pay off your debts.

AAPL
The rumored laptops look sweet. and the touchpads look much like the touchscreen on the iPhone/iPod Touch. No other Laptop has these abiity. very interesting... they are also rumored to have a nice starting price as well. cheaper than in the past to address the slowing economy. they are basically killing the competition in the U.S.

And they open another Apple store in Hawaii. Waikiki. I have no time to join in the festivities. I like my PowerBook, but I aint no stand in line fanatic. For those of you who do... maybe you can win a free iPhone/iPod/Mac... so maybe it is worth it. but its not for me.

Best Course... Pay Debt...

So now i do have internet. DSL... anyway, looking at how things have been going the last 2 weeks. in fact the last months, my decision to sit out and not keep throwing money at the market has been a wise choice. as an example look at how my fav stock AAPL did... drops to 127... back to 140 in two days... back to 126... common now. i dont have time to follow that.

So, the best course is to pay any debt off. Dont keep giving away your $$$ to credit card companies or banks. Why lose money to the Market and Debt? Pay it off. Its just plain good money management. Obviously, the goverment isnt good at doing it and you can see where we are today... learn from stupidity to follow it.

Gold... Oil...

After my post yesterday regarding oil... well, i still believe in the long term it will go down tho not at the pace we have seen. But what a spike today...

Gold is where things will accumulate momentum. Thus i dumped my stupid most of my VISN. the stock i still believe in, but i failed to set a stop loss long ago. and only now i noticed that it crossed the "definite" dump line. Anyway, i bought some AUY...

AND what i was surprise to find was that i still had a number of long puts in play popping green (i had no idea, just to show how out of the market i was...and i wouldnt doubt they go red tomorrow after this post): MOT, RHT, FXI, S. All of these puts are green... and the earliest expires in October, which only reminds me of my having not kept DUG calls, which would have expired in October too. Anyway, i have enjoyed the lack of stress that comes in managing $$$ in the market. So, its all good...

My Raiders finally won a game. Against the [Kansis City] team i think is now the worst team in the NFL. It all starts with the O-Line. On the college front this basically is why I think Hawaii has struggled...since the O-Line/D-Line injuries they suffered against Florida. That game was not worth it. It will now cost UH having a good season. Mind you they may still make a bowl game, but otherwise it will be a tough year.

Samsung + SNDK, Oil, AAPL, Longs (Drugs)

So did you see this coming? i doubt it... I had one guy tell me he was looking into getting some SNDK calls weeks ago, he usually buys during the week of expiration. If he did and held, man did he hit a lotto.

Oil:
If you thought oil was done... other developments continue besides the bad eco affecting oil demand. btw, you would think we would have cheaper plane fares and that airlines should get rid of the stupid baggage fees. Another smack at oil includes the American auto industry as Chevy actually has a nice looking Hybrid coming out in late 2010. It kinda looks like an Acura TL. Japanese and Euro cars are some of the best designed vehicles. Its about time the U.S. copies them and get that dumb pride out of the way so that we can stop driving or sharing the roads with these ugly cars. Anyway, check out the Chevy Volt... Oil may very well be cheap(er), when the American Hybrids reach the mass. Of course, OPEC might have something to say about that.
http://www.autobloggreen.com/photos/2011-chevy-volt-1/

AAPL:
Well, i happen to have been up this morning, and couldnt sleep. Man AAPL actually touched 130!!! awesome... but as i said i have debt to pay and other pressing matters.

CVS, Wallgreens, Longs Drugs, Etc:
Eventually this thing will settle, but this is where the money flows. Despite Medicare/Medicade, and private insurances cutting back, the drug stores still play the perfect middleman. As long as people are kept alive, these stores profit. Think of it this way, you get in the store to buy your drug(s) and then find you need to buy something else that happens to be there too. Before you know it you have a basket or cart full of stuff you ʻmightʻ need, when you really just needed something for your pills for your joints, heart, lungs, or other part(s) of your body... NICE biz model...

LIKE WE DIDNT SEE THIS COMING.... SEPT 15 Shoulda happen months ago.

LEH files for chp 11. Man i tell you i thought this would happen months ago and my portfolio was in full bear mode. Tim must be a billionaire from 2008 alone... LEH was looking for a BSC-like bail out. nope... And i still wish the govt didnt bail out BSC to begin with... cʻmon, no one bails out the individual investor, so why should tax money bail out these chumps? i would have been sitting pretty at this point instead of having my portfolio sideswiped. Alas, thats the govt for you... But some positives are out there and other stuff...

AAPL (cheap)... It is an awesome day for "smart" bottom fishers...
Anyway, i am looking at this another way... I love AAPL going down. AWESOME... this stock is so undervalued. and yet i am still not touching it. i am looking at April 2009 calls & Jan 2010 LEAPS. If AAPL gets below 140... it is a buy... but a scaled buy. The recent bottom was 120 last fall. So, dont be surprised if it doesnt get there, but i doubt it.

Here is the thing with AAPL. Forget iPods and AppleTV. Its all about MACs and iPhones. MACs are gobbling up marketshare and iPhones are beating up all the smartphones and some regular phones as well. RIMM strategists were ingenious by adding a ʻpearlʻ flip phone. that addresses their losing the smartphone battle ground. So, what you have now are the PALM, MOT, NOK, samsungs, LGs of the world getting whacked by RIMM & AAPL. AND the iPhone App Store is bringing in at least 1 million per day at this time for Apple. As they sell more iPhones, that will only go up. And with Gaming being the center of iPod Touch/iPhone you can see how this will exponentially affect the stock positively.

CHINA
Go ahead and add FXP to the mix... i foresee the next Prez penalizing China... my only stock is VISN. sure i lost 25% thus far on it, but you know what... they will beat earnings... no doubt. The commercial ads in China are just beginning. Capital corruption will only increase from here in China affecting the kids to young adults of China. The old and experiences will be left behind and their wisdom will be ignored. That is the world we live in today... And it will only get worse.

OIL
and dont think OPEC will play nice with oil. they can and will cut production, in hopes of having it hover @$100... the hurricanes have affected Gas in north america, but havent reached here in Hawaii. So, it Ike may just be a blip regarding oil. Hope all the those in the Gulf are coping with the difficulties.

Had to put up this post... cant ignore these seismic shifts... unfortunately (or fortunately) i am just watching, being smart, paying off debt, because you know, the govt is tired of bailing out losers (BSC, FNM, FRE)

crybabies...

see for yourself... Coach Bill from PATRIOTS... sore loser...

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80aa5f0a

speaking of cry-babies... the rich are crying and the govʻt is bailing them out... first BSC... now FNM/FRE (sept puts would have been better than any lotto)

I shall return... but i have other pressing issues to tend to... this we still know... The U.S. economy stinks even more... oil will keep dropping until a storm actually hits... and something huge that will affect the economy happens in Nov (election). Oh, and my favorite tech company AAPL has new iPods... i dont care about that, its time for some new Macs. They are absolutely gaining marketshare against the PC & mobile phone space, exception would be MP3/MP4 players (where they are dominant) and set top boxes aka APPLE-TV.

I am still watching some things, just focussing on more important stuff, and itʻs a tough time to trade anyway... but i encourage all to check out this disciplined dude... ibankcoin.com/gioblog

plan to be back in your face at an undisclosed time...

No posts for now...

My portfolio is a mess... In any case, i will post in the near future regarding Quarterly earnings... this alone has opened my eyes to how coorporations really control a whole bunch of dough and influence billions of $ worldwide.

there are a number of underlying things that will get attention again once the Olympics are done.

for now the U.S. Economy stinks... the finacial system is messed up. The FED dug their own grave. Oil going down has been a good thing for us, but it wont solve long standing problems when Greenspan made an easy way out to stimulate the economy.

of course, i at that time benefitted. altho not as much as i could have as i was not as familiar with options... i can only imagine how much coin i would have banked with my AAPL stocks had they been options instead from 2003 to 2006, i did buy them back in 1997. alas, just one of many misses at possibly considering a retirement. its a tough time to be in the market, but one that has been of the utmost instructive.

please visit: ibankcoin.com/gioblog
he is a sharp dude that has earned his stripes.

NO posts this week til 'maybe' Friday

Too busy this week. Certifications and what not. And finishing up my voluntary requirement for the year... some know as 840...

My loses have been minimum and so have the winners (more like break-even)

The major trend basically is OIL going down... and thus the indexes are up... Earnings that miss arent punished as bad as when oil was up.

Thus i do have a few regrets. VISN hasnt picked up as i would have hoped. And I should have kept my DUG call.

That is about it... Buy DUG long calls on oil spikes. With the dollar getting stronger its a solid trend to short/put oil.

Bot FNM... forgot to buy KNOT

Reaching out on FNM Aug7put... I cant believe on the other hand that i forgot to get in on the KNOT... definite winner, i even have it marked.

Anyway, i will tell you that i am happy that they(KNOT) still post a profit for the Q. i will give them a whack in a few months.

Otherwise, its back to looking for another winner... they are out there...

Another List... August 8 (Friday) Pre-market

Aug 8 pre-market

-BZH: family home builder
-CDE: explore for mineral, including silver, gold, zinc (cheap stock)
*FNM: puts please
-LPNT: hospital
-MBI: financial guarantee & credit protection svc
-MIR: generates & sells electricity via coal, gas
-NAT: crude oil tankers
-PGR: progressive insurance
-UXG: gold mining

i have a limit order (i wish i checked this out earlier) FNM puts. This was a no-brainer trade

Aug 7 Pre-Market & After-Market Earnings

based on todays (Aug 6) earnings reaction and in turn options action, i didnt really find anything compelling for Aug 7. there are a few big names of course, but none struck me as a stock that could move a huge number of buyers and sellers.

alas here is my belated list:
Aug 7 pre-market
-BBI:
-FLW
-DT: huge telecom, but mostly foreign
-IMAX: yup movies... nah, i just wait for the DVDs
-PCS: basically like a regional sprint. nice volume tho
-SIRI: this is so cheap and battered, anyone interested? cares?
-DTV(time not supplied): cheap strangle... but would it move strong either way?
-TM (2 am EST): i think they already said they wouldnt make the Q, priced in?
-VMED (3 am EST): another cheap strangle on a huge media conglomerate.


Aug 7 after-market
*HTZ: rental car market tough, definite put play
*KNOT: i get their spam all the time, and nothing they sell interests me... put please
-TRMP: big name Mr. Trump. Yet LVS, WYNN, MGM got more mojo. also, all the puts are already in the money
-WMG: losing $(music is often burned illegally), yet not much expected from them. strangle possibility

Aug 6 After-Market

-AAP: near 52 wk hi, auto parts.
-ALNY: pharmaceutical near 52 wk hi, study on respiratory drugs
-ALJ: petroleum
-AIG: not the car insurance, but other insurance & financial svc
-ACF: car leases, chart meeting resistance
-ANDE: theres your Ag
-AINV: provides financial backing for middle biz
-BKD: senior living, homes
-CECO: education svc throughout N. America, Europe for colleges/higher Ed.
-EGLE: ocean shipper, primarily commodities
*FBN: furniture manufacturer for homes/retail, puts please
-GDP: petroleum
-HRC: medical tech for healthcare
-MGA: worldwide automotive parts supplier for builders
-MHGC: another hotel, delayed Las Vegas project
*NHP: health industry properties, bullish chart, option call
-PRXL: clinical data, info svc for pharmaceutical studies
-PVA: nat gas/oil
*RWT: real estate finance related commercial/residential, puts here
-REG: real estate, especially malls
*RJET: leases planes, passenger & air freight, puts please
-SVNT: pharmaceutical
-SCI: death related svc, funeral, etc
-SINA: think chinese yahoo (BIDU is chinese GOOG)
-BEE: hotels
-TBSI: ocean shipper
-TK: oil/petroleum
-UTSI: telecom infrastructure/software & accessories... interesting
-VRSN: internet security, transaction, etc... toss up, strangle?
-AUY: GOLD!!!, PUTS?
-

Bought S option

Sept 6 put... another reach... but yesterdays RACK pick was a winner, albeit a slim winner... my portfolio is so shattered i couldnt participate closer to the strike.

Bunch of big name stocks with a lot of attention tomorrow...

PRE-MARKET NOTABLES FOR TOMORROW

AGU
ABK
FTK
FWLT
FRE
HLS: Healthsouth
HK
RIG
RL: Ralph Lauren
S
TWC: Time Warner Cable
RMIX: Concrete, questionable guidance...
YGE

i would short/put RL & S...

Bought RACK option

RACK Aug10put. it might be a bit of a reach... but they stink...

I was selective before, now i am ultra-selective...

Aug 5 After-Market Earnings...

Aug 5 After-Market

-AFN: real estate investment trust
-ACAS: investment firm, acquires businesses early stage...
-AMKR: semiconductor related
-ARNA: pharmaceutical
-CELL: provides wireless devices, logistic services to carriers
-CBL: real estate, manages, buys, operates: malls & communities in the southeast/midwest
-CSCO: Big Tech Dog...
-CSC: IT for big biz & govt
-XCO: oil/nat gas
-EXEL: biotech (primarily for cancer)
*FCH: REIT, BUT owns various hotel pieces, Hilton, Doubletree, Holiday Inn, Sheraton/Westin... has this bottomed? possible puts, keep stops tight
-FIS: transaction services for financial institutions & retailers worldwide
-FST: oil/nat gas
-GSS: mines for GOLD...
-HRS: communications & IT for govt & commercial worldwide
-HCC: insurance
-HCN: invests in health care properties
-HLF: herbalife
-HLTH: heath info services
-IO: think software related to energy, otherwise too broad...
-JBX: Jack In The Box!!!
*KCP: low volume, but hey its Kenneth Cole, puts please
-LPS: tech services for REAL ESTATE....
-LBTYA: video/voice/broadband Europe, Japan, Chile
-MRX: pharmaceutical
-MTU: Japanese financial svc to retail & coorp worldwide
-MOLX: electronic components sold worldwide
-NFP: finance for high net worth individuals & companies
-OKE: newly listed sells/distributes nat gas
-PZZA: low volume, but its PAPA JOHNS pizza
-QSFT: enterprise software
-SHO: another HOTEL
*SNCR: maybe now they will find traction on iPhone, strangle?
-UPL: yet another oil/nat gas
-VTR: health care real estate trust
-WFMI: whole foods... dunno bout guidance

*points of interest for me...
Leave a comment if you have any suggestions on these or other earnings posts

August 5 (Tuesday) Pre-Market

Hopefully you have time to position ur plays today...
Aug 5 Pre-Market plays

-AMCS: energy technology company
-ADM: Ags
-AGIX: pharmaceutical, LOTS of buying today on diabetes drug
-ITU: Brazillian bank, but also international
-BBG: oil/gas
-BMRN: pharmaceutical
-EAT: Restaurant owner: Chiliʻs, Macaroni Grill, etc...
-CSE: Finance provider to biz, healthcare, specialties
-CHTR: hi speed internet/telephone/video services
-XEC: oil/gas exploration & production
-FTR: provides telephone, internet, dish services
*DHI: home builder... what is there to build?
-DNR: oil/nat gas
-DUK: sells gas/electricity to Carolinas, OH, IN, KY.
-EMR: global tech co., designs/supply product & engineering
-EXPD: logistic services, air & ocean freight
-GSX: nat gas/petroleum
*GET: hotel... newly listed NYSE, bad timing
-GLBL: construction/support services for oil/gas
-HNT: managed health care services
-HRP: REIT
-ICON: owns, license, markets: Joe Boxer, OP, basically sells name brand clothes to retail
-JRCC: Coal!!!
-LEAP: digital wireless svc.
-MVL: comic book movies... Xmen, Hulk, Iron Man
-MVIS: low volume, but interesting
*MGM: casino... more hurt awaits?
-TAP: Molson Beer
-ONXX: Pharamceutical
-PKD: oil/gas drilling
-PGH: canadian energy... nice dividend
-PG: blue chip
-PXD: oil/gas
-RRI: sells electricity/energy to Texas & NY
-RDC: offshore drilling
-BID: Sotheby, auctioneer for expensive stuff
-THC: Healthcare
-JOE: real estate
-TDG: aircraft components
-UNT: drilling, oil/nat gas
-VANDA: pharaceutical
-VNO: realty trust
-WBMD: webmd.com
-WEN: Wendys restaurants
-WY: growing/harvesting timber... housing related
-WWE: wrestling...

* i view as lower risk... put/short bias
Note:
All these securities have volumes 500K and up. The exceptions are ones that were at one time 1 M volume but have fallen out of favor, but worth watching

Well Whadya Expect... VISN vs. DUG

Last friday i buy a bunch of VISN stock... actual stock mind you. and it gets whacked today. DUG which i sold last week... i should have obviously kept as a hedge...

Remember My SFLY & SBUX picks - Better Than MOT/EXPE

At July 30 after-market

I had 2 good picks...
SFLY dropped after hours
SBUX didnt drop but did 2 days later

but what did i choose INSTEAD
I choose MOT/EXPE for July 31 pre-market...
I still have a little Mojo on my picks, but again the execution stunk.

There is no looking back now, but this goes to illustrate no ʻputʻting everything in one basket. A major principle that i broke. At the very least had i spread out the risk with 3 picks i calculated that i would have been in the green... instead of MOT/EXPE whacking be >50% loss to my entire portfolio... crazy...

I kept a few MOT Oct6puts since they have some time to make a comeback. Otherwise I have, DUG calls, YHOO calls/puts, RHT puts and VISN stock.

August Starts with a ....

well another confused day for some...

Oil is up... on nuclear/terrorist stuff. blah blah blah...

ANYWAY... i bought VISN on this huge pounding dip... long term it looks ok. i dont buy into the hype, thus i have a small position in them thus far...

WOW i actually bought a stock for once...

August 1 after market/August 4 pre-... *sigh* enjoy...

August 1st aftermarket:
-CEGE: biotech.

that was easy...

August 4 pre-market:
-EYE: clever optic ticker. interesting options
-BBD: brazilian bank...
*CMED: china & medical... scary... but its all about the chart
-CTB: tires...
-DISH: bullish option buying today
-HBC: HSBC bank related
-HUM: more health/medical
-ICE: go check Gio site. a common ticker he trades
-GAS: natural gas... after winter, a definite put
*SBAC: they operate some of the wireless towers ur mobile phone rely on in the US, Puerto Rico & Virgin Islands. VERY compelling Long. Look at the chart... the fundamentals do coincide. This is definitely a long play with a breakout due. it got blasted during the dot-com and 9/11. It has fought back gradually. it deserves its own write up. but i got other stuff to do

With that i will go do that other stuff now...

Didnt I Tell You it would be a Bear day... Still I Wait... CONGRATS GIO!

You can check my past post... I knew today was a bear day...

Yet it was Just a horrible day... because i went all in on MOT/EXPE...

I ignored the best chart out there: VISN.
If u bought calls on them congrats to you...
It seems as tho VISN calls was technically a better play than MOT puts.

What is interesting is that oil lost ground today... profit taking or people closing out there losers. i for one sold off my USO yesterday, when it was wiser to hold tight. historically oil does go down a bit around this time... Thankfully i still have DUG sitting happy to be back. Kinda wish i bought the DUG dip.

Congrats to Gio. Who i actually just got off the phone with... He is on Flys site. I noticed that Gio has outperformed some who have been doing this way longer than him. His contrarian set ups this week have worked out with precision. What is funny about Gio compared to the rest on the site is he (like myself), never swear. So Gio is family friendly...

Anyway, he encouraged me to continue posting them earnings plays for all of you, even tho i missed on some of those.

But in regards to any heavy trading... I Wait...

Well Guys - Nice Knowing You... Possibly No Post From Me For Awhile

Today I will Get Blasted... both MOT & EXPE posted profits... i am shocked... floored.
The street was surprised MOT held up... especially in their handsets

I dont know how much of my portfolio i will even have after today...

I went heavy on the put side with no coverage on the call side... HARD LESSON LEARNED...
The only good thing was having options in October versus all August...
(a no winner - the call side didnt even strike gold... bad all around for options)

I can list a number of mistakes in the past 3 weeks...
-Missed ʻputingʻ a position in MAR earnings(b/cz i forgot)
-Distracted w/ GOOG earnings (so MSFT puts, i knew it was there)
-Didnt position for AAPL low ball guidance (hello? 7 of the last 8 Q)
-Wasnt aggressive enough on HOT earnings (distracted by AAPL/USO)

So as u see, i add yet a fatal error to my managing...
I wont even bother looking at the charts... blood bath...

I am done folks for awhile... If you have any long term plays send them... here...

Mother Market Taketh Today...

Bought MOT/EXPE puts

before i get into it. Oil supplies surprised me... Did the oil people fix the numbers? Who knows... Did the SEC know those numbers... imagine shorting everything today that was green yesterday!!!


MOT: oct7puts@.50 & aug7puts@.32

EXPE: aug17.5put@.55

Both charts had some suspicious buying IMHO. The fundamentals are so messed up i dont think these will stand. They seem to have followed OMX pattern yesterday.

The one thing that could permanently put my portfolio out of commission is some sort of buy out talk of MOT. They just reorganized their business units and CSCO or Ericsson could buy that piece, otherwise... they just have NO response to the iPhone/Blackberry battle. Its over... sad when u think how the RAZR was well ahead of its competitors. The didnt spend enough on R&D to stay ahead.

EXPE was more of a spec to me. It is obvious that they would have less tickets to sell and tighter margins. The airlines prefer that we use Orbitz as they get a piece of the action that way. Maybe i should have bought a PCLN put as well...

Tomorrow looks to be a huge bear of a day... they didnt have to wait for Friday after all.

Weird Trading Pattern For MOT... Fake Rally IMHO

Well, i am expected bad numbers from MOT tomorrow. This and the fact that Oil spiked today will weigh on the market in general. So, i dont believe this rally at all. It was similar with OMX yesterday. This is just giving me cheaper puts...

It was a waste of time for me to add to my shorting of oil yesterday... i already had it hedged with an October option, i didnt need to add an august option. i learned with my wallet...

Oil spike!!!

Yeehaw... bring my puts some money!!!

July 31 Pre-Market

ABX: gold baby
CCC: carbon, volume off what i remember when it was hot
CBS: television...
CEG: energy supplier. Electricity & regulated gas
CVS: drug retailer... solid call
EK: does kodak matter anymore?
*EXPE: travel was tough... put please
FPL: electricity provider
FTE: french telecom
GG: gold
IP: paper
K: cereal... yawn
MRO: oil/gas exploration refining
MA: lotto chip?
*MOT: they love *sarcasm* the iPhone/Blackberry... put please
NMX: nymex! i used to own shares @ the IPO
PTEN: oil/nat gas north america
PCCC: sells PCs...
TEF: spain, europe, latin america telecom
TSCM: thestreet.com ha!!!
TYC: security/fire alarm and bunch of stuff
WYN: do i really want to do hotels again? put if i do

I think MOT prospects are extremely poor at this point... worst than WYN & EXPE. CVS is the only bull play i would consider. i think these positions are better than my previous post on SFLY & SBUX.

Economic Numbers this week... go with the likely trend

The rest of the week has a whole bunch of potential bearish numbers, but with Oil sinking, the bulls have come to play.

Wednesday: likely a bullish day!
-Oil inventory (1035 am)...

Thursday: things could get choppy
-GDP (pre-market)
-jobless claims (pre-market)

Friday: bears could be back with vengence!
-Unemployment (pre-market)
-Auto sales (pre-market)
-Truck sales (pre-market) why they list seperately, who knows.
-Constructions spending (10 am)

Specifics... COH, HOT, OMX, SBUX, SFLY, USO...

Ok. for now my rant on quitting just venting as OMX did in fact crash. my initial screen showed otherwise.

Now, regarding a few positions:
-USO: will likely drop yet again once the crude numbers are out.
-SFLY: my wife uses Kodak Ofoto. I prefer ʻMyPublisherʻ. So ITM puts...
-SBUX: they have been aggressive in cost cutting, so the stock will go with the general market trend INHO.

I think V will do well on guidance, but remember, they have less growth potential than MA.

Sidenote:
COH was good on theory, but my execution stunk. I was fortunate to get back what I did. I should have sold when it showed pre-market that it probably wasnt going to drop like a rock. HOT was just a bad idea, the reflex bounce imminent and I ignored that fact.

July 30 After Market

This list is way shorter than today
-CNQR: huge action. ave volume 700K, today 6 million from partial buyout
-DRE: real estate
-FSLR: are we in midrally form?
-(pre-market) GRMN: worth watching
*MRT: no options, but worth a short. overpriced steak
-MUR: oil
-OII: offshore oil/gas
-PRU: prudential insurance, finance
*O: commercial real estate
-SCRX: pharmaceutical
*SFLY: who uses shutterfly? put please...
-SWN: oil/nat gas in US
-SBUX: strangle please... maybe Jan calls/aug puts
-SPN: drilling for Nat gas/oil
-SYMC: the computer virus mafia
-TECO: sells electricity
-TSO: hmm toss up.
-V: better than AXP, that for sure
-DIS: toss up
-WILL: oil

i am partial to buying puts on SFLY and a SBUX strangle. I am unsure of V (a former fave of mine). Maybe play off of them with MA. The last time around V missed and MA beat. With the Olympics ahead of us, who knows.

I am this close (*...*) to quitting...

OMX is having a bull aftermarket. Reading the earnings report... the common word used was ʻlossʻ and ʻdecreaseʻ. this is so mental... this sector is getting whacked and yet the stock moves up. illogical... i will go hide in a cave and pretend the market doesnt exist.

anyway, tmrw is another trading day - and the bulls have devaluating oil as leverage. thus my DUG oct call & short window USO Aug put, which i plan to sell quickly... alas, my only choice is to ride oil down long term. the choppy stuff has knocked my portfolio to shreds.

SOLD... BOUGHT

Session hasnt ended but i got out before it got even worse.

Sold:
COH sep25puts 17% loss
pending HOT put

Bought:
OMX aug12.5put
USO aug99put

Wrong...

I chose to buy puts on COH over SNE... wrong... the only saving grace is that COH is not a high flying stock. if it was, my portfolio would be in the poor house.

I knew i had to be very selective. My only position in the green today is DUG. Otherwise, i am getting blasted yet again. i am waiting for consumer confidence index before going back to sleep...

its a blood bath for me... not the market thus far.
the bulls are back in force. look at X. on fire... most of my scans are bullish. consumer confidence actually rose today. so i get blasted once more.


update: back to sleep... btw, i am physically sick (on antibiotics).

Narrowing List

Well, the July 29 earnings after market list is long.
So basically i am looking at fundamentals of the ones i picked out as somewhat low risk rather than high return. I am looking at a few charts

BWLD attempting to get over the 50 MA. Me think not. Ok maybe a strangle. the open hammer is somewhat bullish, but its all about guidance. I think people will in fact eat out even cheaper if not eat at home


OfficeMax. They have been in a world of hurt for some time The worst is not over


Real Estate: CTX, JLL, LFG. They all have similar patterns and are near their all time lows. The fact that JLL is more global in its assets has kept its value up although percentage wise it has fallen like the rest in its sector. There are some option deals that are dirt cheap.
CTX 12.5 puts @ aug/sept/oct u get to choose your risk
LFG 15 puts @ aug/sept (.45?)/dec
JLL is at a premium. and its global portfolio buffers downside losses from US properties.

July 29 after market... long list...

July 29 After-Market:
*BWLD: i say PUTs!!! people will eat more at home/Costco microwave food
-BEXP: oil/nat gas
*CTX: family home builder... another PUT please....
-CEPH: drug co., sector been beating the street
-CTV: communication networks
-CVA: waste conversion to energy services in USA, Europe, Asia
-DENN: i dont eat here, but i have a friend named Denny.
-XRAY: dental related.
-DBTK: data protection recovery, especially during natural disasters
-DWA: i think they made some coin. kung fu panda...
-EQ: internet, satellite, wireless data provider
-ERTS: i think they made some coin on violent games
-EFII: ink...
-EOG: crude oil, nat gas exploration, production & marketing
-FISV: IT and e-commerce solutions
-HBI: Hanes... you know under there... oh, underwear.
-HIW: real estate, i think JLL/LFG have better puts
*HTCH: disk drive production. puts please, caution low volume.
-IDTI: semiconductor
*JLL: real estate... lots of put buying
*LFG: real estate title related. stock is $15, 52 wk hi was $79. mucho put volume
-LNC: insurance/investment management like Prudential.
*OMX: office max. PUTS!!!
-OSG: shipping like DRYS!
-MALL: they sell PCs. known as "PC-Mall". toss up... they could beat bad expectations
-PRAA: sounds like they are COLLECTION SERVICE for default loans, etc. yikes!
-RFMD: designs/builds radio frequency related for mobile communication/data
-SIMO: Fabless semiconductor shop, not well known, but option liquidity good
-SLW: silver production from silver purchased from GG.
-STAR: software, hardware, services for multimedia on mobile operators

i am biased towards buying puts in real estate and restaurants

There you go...

COH puts @ Sept25 & Aug20.
HOT put reentry @ Sep30.

Thats all folks. mind you i could lose it all tomorrow...

SOLD!

HOT aug30puts @.40: 20% loss, but added up to $40 loss.
- the funny thing is that HOT has no conviction in either direction at this time. so this thing might have been profitable in the end.
MAR aug25puts @.80: whew squeezed a 15% gain

I am looking at COH, VISN & USO action. I NOW want oil to nose dive as i am out of my hotel positions...

Dollar Bubble?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wy6SlUpbnIU

i am one to not worry over this stuff. its just interesting. i am doing my job to pay off debt and get myself in a position to settle matters financially and not overstretch my budget.

anyway, someone is making and someone is losing money all the time. the key is to make sure that the latter isnt me (anymore).

July 28 After-Market & July 29 Pre-Market

July 28 After Market:
-AMGN: options reasonable
-CBAK: china spec
-PPD: i actually have used them... boring stock
-RCII: hey, people renting furniture. hmm.
-(pre market)SOHU: too late to buy, but interesting to watch
-MOS: toss up. Ags benefit from oil run up may be over
-(pre market) VZ: strong put bias...

July 29 Pre-Market:
-ANR: BTU was the gauge, may end flat.
-CLR: crude oil/nat gas in mid west USA
*COH: buy a put here...
*ELNK: i am shocked they are still around... maybe a put(cheap!)
-HERO: oil down, but Prez says do more offshore drilling
-NOV: oil parts production related
-NCR: boring but essential automated stuff like ATMs
-RCI: basically a monopoly wireless carrier in Canada, btw, they sell iPhones
-RTI: titanium metals.
-MHP: education stuff boring. but alot of call volume last week
-VLO: how low can this go? bottom found?
*WMI: waste collection...they will never go out of business(cheap calls)

*I personally view as low risk when picking a direction. So basically at the end of Monday, I may buy puts in COH & ELNK, and maybe calls on WMI. Hope i dont get too distracted... again... COH, ELNK, WMI, but if i had to pick one its COH strangle with a strong put bias.

VISN...

This thing has gotten alot of attention from multiple bloggers. The chart is unmistakable. And with the Olympics ahead of us, this seems like it has legs...

The other side of this is that once the Olympics is done, then what... dunno. But China has passed the US in internet viewing, so the AD sellers are frothing at the mouth, thus VISN has potential upside from indirect association... Its all about ADS and I see VISN doing stuff on the internet as well - my speculation...

The thing is that the options are cheap... The Jan22.5call is <3.0. Considering it being months out which alleviates risk, that is cheap... And i plan to buy depending on the momentum... and on what happens to dumb positions in MAR/HOT...

I will be watching carefully to see what happens to MAR/HOT. I really wanted to exit these positions as I am a bit uneasy here. The swings have come and apparently the short side may be done for now (which i am stuck in). The fundamentals are horrible and it seems as though shorting the Vegas players was the way to go... They will have tons of empty time-shares for months maybe years to come.

Pondering... Confusion continues...

My friends and I had dinner with this kid from Tahiti last night. Who speaks french... a proper Tahitian. And today we are supposed to see another ʻkidʻ who is going back to NY monday. Why do i mention this? because i am tired of trying to figure out a direction... and need the time away... the market in just plain confused where to go. Long term down, but for now its all *??????*

I have nailed some picks but have failed to go full bore on them. I could have easily increased my portfolio x5 on those picks within the last 3 weeks. I worry about my current short positions that i am finally trying to be aggressive, however, no sell off occurred in my HOT/MAR, a temporary bottom here? Early yesterday, MAR tried to break strong to green but found a firm spot over the previous close. HOT closed just below the previous close... The buyers kept coming back...so trouble is possible. My hope is that it only allows more shorts to come in. The worse case scenerio is a huge squeeze on monday with no eco news on Monday. Tuesday involves consumer confidence, so a definite bear day...

I have a long short(oxymoron) on oil, DUG option calls. However, ... Energy, especially oil related might have found a temporary bottom here... but if another crash happens i figured i would pick up this hedge... The thing is i want oil/energy up to knock HOT/MAR back down to where they belong. The long trend in oil has been established until the new Prez is picked.

Hats Off to another potential pick (GD)

Tim again has an interesting pick: General Dynamics
Tim is basing this completely on the chart. But what i find interesting is the fundamentals that could potentially go with it.
If Obama is prez (Democrat), u better believe combat/weapons producers will be in a panic. And yet the put options listed are DIRT CHEAP! If it crashes anytime before Obama gets in can you imagine what happens then?

The new prez gets voted in late November. Thus, this is one of those you leave alone and maybe check out once a week

60 put
Jan09 bid/ask @ .35/.40
Feb09 bid/ask @ .45/,60
Jan10 bid/ask @ 2.0/2.35

Tim has nailed so many "what stock is that..." securities in a small window. But this is one example of a potentially huge payout much like shorting housing market (which i bought in the fall of 2006, and got out before the actual housing crisis, but we all saw it coming.)

Competitors/Related securities: LMT, NOC,
Less related: RTM, BA

Back to watching grass grow a.k.a HOT/MAR bulls & bears battling it out.

.

Sleep Deprivation... HMC, HOT/MAR, USO/DUG

Sold my HMC calls @ MEAGER profit this a.m. It sold off quickly...

And now i am eyeing out my existing positions... namely HOT/MAR. It has not been a fun morning at all.

What is interesting is watching USO down AND DUG down. Whats going on here? I placed a limit order on a DUG Oct40call. This is TOO weird $oil/barrel <$123 at the time of this post and DUG is down. profit taking? i dont know. mixed messages as always are being planted by both sides. Someone actually mentioned Oil stabilizing from here. Yet the possibility of a rate increase by the FED is what will prevent oil from heading higher. Of course, threat of hurricanes/civil unrest to oil fields are the lotto for oil bulls. Its all speculation.

OK back to my painfully watching HOT/MAR.

July 25 After-Market/ July 28 Pre-Market

July 25 After Market:
hmm. no definite times on any interesting securities. i already positioned for the pre-market July 25 with HMC calls. They beat earnings but i am unsure of how guidance and the overall market will affect Honda. For me, It was a call interest spec and the fact that Toyota refuses to increase quantities of their efficient cars. Thus, Honda civics/accord hybrids have taken up the slack.

July 28 Pre Market considerations
-MOS: trendline around 118 to 120. if it falls below, it may be in a solid short/put. maybe a strangle
-VZ: competition is tough...

Averting Disaster Never Ends

OK, so yesterday i tried to set up LONG on AAPL, and bought puts on USO. My timing was bad. However, waking up 3 a.m. in this case was a great idea. should have set a tight stop on AAPL, but with my past history of plugging in wrong data i woke up, saw my AAPL call -5% and sold it -10%. I escaped USO bouncing upward with a minute $30 profit.

Props to Chart Swinger, his technical analysis tipped me towards getting out of USO. My gut feeling was the same but i had no logic behind it. AAPL call exit was strictly on my 10% stop

Had i been patient to open strong positions with HOT puts i would have more than doubled my entire portfolio.
Obviously didnt happen, yet i re-entered with a strong bear/put position on MAR & HOT with the hopes that WYNN would fall afterhours (which it did somewhat). The key was for WYNN to show that the U.S. economy stinks... No one needs to be a genius to see that.

Of course, because of this position i sacrificed a position in WDC puts which will hit big tomorrow, but will have an effect on the market as whole anyway, so i still benefit

My worry is that some may view HOT/MAR as bouncing off a temporary bottom (both are still above their 52 week lows last week) or view the fall in oil as precipitating a floor for all securities affected. The fact that $oil/barrel jumped back to >$126 ensures a short window on bear handling the hotel/visitor industry. The credit crisis is being manipulated by the govt. So, oil is an essential component to whack back at the hotel sector.

We shall see if my strong position was a disastrous one. I have no interest in looking at any other securities at this time... Just protecting what is left... I am disappointed that i nailed the fundamentals, but my execution failed me once more.

Re-entry... I could lose it all...

So, if WYNN blows through earnings... my renewed HOT and now MAR will be blown to zero... i still think hotels stink... lipstick, earings, a whatever else aint making their fundamentals any better...

So, bought
HOT aug30puts
MAR aug25puts (a winner and loser in my past)
Update, bought HMC aug35calls

I have very little to cash... maybe i wont have anything once this day is over.
btw, Oil will be bouncing up... glad i was able to sell USO early in the session.

Failed Expectations... SOLD: HOT, APPL, USO

I did nail HOT... but my gain was somewhat slashed by my other positions. The best put would have been Aug40puts or MAR aug27.5puts... all in that is... either way i think HOT/MAR will continue lower.

SOLD:
-EMC aug15call... no way i was keeping this...
-HOT aug35puts... it didnt stay down, so i got out (too soon as a follow through likely happens tomorrow)
-AAPL sept175call was a bad idea, capital that should have went to HOT puts. i had a small profit but ended about 10% loss
-USO aug100puts was a good idea. yet capital going to HOT puts wudv been way better. but there is a possibility a small rally happens.


Sidenotes:
Radioshack started higher, hmm nice put entry.

July 24th After-Market possible positions: And July 25 Pre-Market...

*AVID: let me tell you they WILL fall. They are being undercut by Apples Software. Look at their long term chart and you see a definite correlation between Apple buying Movie related software from then Macromedia and the erosion of AVID. The option premiums are affordable. Note the sept12.5put interest/volume.
-BMY: drug companies been handily beating the street, it is possible here too.
-LLY: another drug company
-KMB: hygiene company.
*RSH: they are trying to replicate the Apple Store experience. ahem, problem is they sell a bunch of junk.
-RMBS: they were a headlining firm. and sued everyone too. toss up...
*SIRF: CHEAP strangle...
-WDC: hard drive prices keep going down, not sure if they provide drives for laptops. that is key, otherwise a definite short/put
-WYNN: Mr Wynn announced ahead of time, buying back more shares, and claiming to provide more jobs to fill his newest Casino. He said all the right things to boast the stock. But i heard that Vegas has left alot of people unemployed and a bunch of people are in foreclosure. Toss up... thus i prefer HOT/MAR.

There are other notables reporting July 24 pre-market, but its obviously too late if you do options. That being the case here are some positions for July 25 pre-market. Obviously have to be bought before July 24th session closes

*HMC: Honda hybrids kicking butt. notice the strong option call bias
-IFX: They are used to interface high speed data, especially supercomputers
-NFLX: They will do well, cheaper than DVDs and the Movies, recession friendly.

I placed an asterik(*) on what seems like lower risk.
Depending on HOT, i will refocus on some of these positions.

After-Market Winners... QCOM, AMZN...

My set up was for a definite trend. I missed entering QCOM/AMZN, but i was too unsure of the risk.

QCOM really blasted off (18% gain!) once word came out that they settled with NOK.
AMZN wasnt really a surprise, i prefer shopping there too if it doesnt involve clothes

The thing is these good earnings set up another day for a rally especially in tech. So it affirms my option call in AAPL, who i believe is worth $200.

USO falling is such a sure trend...

HOT is my spec... 2 weeks ago the hotels tanked. nothings changed except for oil falling, credit crisis continues. but we will see, maybe i lose my puts to an adjusted guidance based on projections oil dropping.

My next post includes tomorrows (July 24) after-market.

Added HOT puts.... Position Summary

(3:44 p.m. EST) HOT aug35puts@.89: my last position i really wanted to snag... will find out how it goes tomorrow

My other positions bought today are small:
AAPL: sept175call@5.7 (12% gain) hope this niche rally continues
USO: aug100put@4.1 (17% gain) riding it down.

Held:
RHT: jan12.5put (-25% )
YHOO: jan32.5call/aug15puts (worthless strangle)
SNDK: aug22.5call (basically worthless from strangle)
JBLU: aug5call (small 83% gain)
EMC: aug15call (small 155% gain)

Sold:
JBLU: dec5put@1.15 (about 12% loss)
EMC: sep12put@.36 (about 50% loss)
ETFC: sept4put@.75 (breakeven) tried to cancel trade, shoulda been a profit

CASH: 15% of portfolio...

significant after market moves were generally split. if not uneventful

Bought... Await HOT at sessions end...

(9:34 a.m.EST)AAPL sept175call@5.7 wish i bought more. this is the early stage of a rally.
(10:07 a.m.EST)USO aug100put@4.1 wish this went to AAPL, but yet oil is in the confirmed decline. mind you i wouldnt be surprised if we hit resistance. yet my gut says US oil inventories will be unusually high. depressing oil further.

I await my lone bear play: HOT... it keeps moving upward, cheaper puts? or bear trap?

Bull Rally... Specific Bear...

So, as Oil is dropping like a rock, it is a good time to go long on any leader that benefits from an oil drop.

Bull/calls: Airlines, Tech (namely AAPL)
Bears/puts: USO or DUG calls, specific Hotel (namely HOT)

-AAPL will be in rally mode for some time. Call A.S.A.P.
-USO will drop as long as there is no disruption in the middle east/hurricanes.
-HOT will drop, but i will lower my risk with a longer put into November. Patience, for now it is in rally mode...i will fire against this with some puts but not as strong i would have a few days ago

Look Out Its a Hurricane... oh wait... yup it is...

Dolly... she cant make up her mind. But the Bears are probably happy as are those long energy. Any hurricane will cancel out an oversupply inventory report tomorrow. if the supply is less than expected look out for a spike again.

Be Careful With Oil... Potential Earnings plays... AFTER-MARKET July 23.

Inventory report tomorrow. And it seems that the supply on average keeps increasing thereby dropping the value of oil. Hurricanes will be the lotto. But the long term is that oil will drop when the U.S. reverses interest rates. A long strangle on oil seems reasonable at this point. Some claim oil can still go to $300 (forget Goldman Sach target of $200) and others say it will get to below $100 again.

July 23 aftermarket:
AMZN: a fancier OTSK?
T(unknown earnings time): can AT&T claim more on their network with iPhone 3G?
BIDU: the Olympics are near... after that, then what...
FFIV: toss up, but a Cramer favorite.
LHO: small hotel franchise... maybe a put
NTGR: they cater to homes & small businesses... maybe a put here
NTRI: rally on low volume today - u know what that could mean
BTU(no time supplied): here is your energy catalyst
PHM: they might as well build for the homeless... maybe a put
QCOM: CDMA technology - i.e. Verizon. no iPhone for you...
TER: chip testers equipment *yawn*
ALL: Allstate, solid fundamentals

There are a bunch of pre-market earnings, namely BA & ATI, i already bought for the 23rd today...
btw, Airlines kicked butt today. Of course Oil dropping surely helped besides JBLU earnings.

Another AAPL reverse fade... incredible

Mind you this has to be perfectly timed...
Imagine you bought a call that was basically worthless, the aug180call was worth $1!!! if you watched it carefully. it ended the day at $114. So, say you spend $200, you now have 22,000+. Forget GOOG, now this is a return... on calls with the stock opening in the red!!! i am sure i didnt discover this, but its worth keeping note of...

The previous example of aug165calls is more likely... but the potential position is definitely a cool way that works well (as it works with the more natural mentality to buy something cheap which includes BOTH traders & long investors instead of selling short)

OK enough with that. Moving on to July 23/24

Buys... On Earnings... "AAPL Reverse Fade?"

EMC: aug15calls & sep12puts (update: benefitting from VMW whacking)
ETFC: sept4put
JBLU: aug5call & dec5put. i only found out later that they already reported upside. boring... wasted time & $.

SKX options. not enough volume, so didnt bite
EW calls, ran out of time... wanted an Aug call.
VMW puts, i positioned EMC puts to benefit from double whammy.

sidenotes:
AAPL: i thought of buying a call early in the session. it was slammed only because of guidance. its a running joke when AAPL gives that part of its earnings report, sure enough the buyers all eventually came because the stock was cheap. an option position that would have been sweet was buying an aug165call@1.25 at the open. it was worth 10.00 the previous day, but now sits at 5.35. you can do the math. but its a lesson worth remembering for next Q. hmm is there a term for this? Reverse Fade? Anyway, this seems to be safer (maybe more than a strangle) than buying prior to earnings since a direction has been established.

HOT: i love the buying in hotels. i dont know if the bad numbers from HOT will be the same as MAR about 2 weeks ago. but how different can they be. i may in fact position MAR in place of HOT. either way i want tons of buyers - so i can buy puts of course.

Learning BID/ASK Real time Exit

There was a window where my Oct17.5put bid/ask was 4.85/4.9 while the last was 4.5. Should have sold right there to market and reset at another strike. I dont think it will reach that point again today.

My eyes are set on other positions...

Narrowing Focus...

Yesterday my Oct17.5puts will have action today... i think there will be a follow throught tomorrow. i will set a tight stop in the end. or sell half the position.

Out of my list, I am narrowing my focus at sessions end:
-ETFC: possible buyout, Q probably stinks
-JBLU: risk/reward on cheap puts(aug/sep/dec)
-SKX: aug22.5put or oct20put, possible bad earnings & legal battle with CROX
-EMC: relatively cheap strangle, VMW losses hurt bottom line. altho they have a pending data backup deal in play.

less 1/2 hour to open

(Specific) Shooting Fish In A Barrel...

So much red has been in the market and yet we are still at the beginning of the earnings season. Financials have been a toss up because of the govt. But Tech on the other hand has been whacked. We could do it the easy way and short the Naz, but the returns are limited if done in that fashion.

So what specific tech/others to look to short/put:
JULY 22...
-BRCM: there is potential in iPhone orders, so beware. but the $5 options strike @17.5 may be worth a bunch at days end.
-CAT: reports prior to open, so maybe a bit late - but there is quite a ways to go down. options show interest up to -$10
-CHKP: reports prior to open. internet security software still in demand tho.
-ETFC: toss up. but cheap puts/calls. nice stragle.
-EW: call interest has increased per earnings.
-JBLU: airlines have been whacked for awhile, but still cheap puts
-LXK: printers. boring... its tech tho...
-RCL: vacation related. enough said. reports prior to open tho.
-UPS: dropped to 50 after 9/11 so it can still fall
-VMW: once a great bull play. dramatic swings. bad news may be priced in already

You might consider these positions before July 22 session ends.
July 23 earnings before opening bell:
-EMC: already whacked. most recent LOW 7.53(2002)
-MCD: pretty much recession proof, but will they meet street?
-BTU: will set the stage for coal/energy
-SKX: shoes. toss up... still in style?
-BA: alot of contract orders. more efficient planes. strangle?
-NYT: losing AD revenue... this stock was $7 in early 90's. option interest/volume show a bunch of strangles.
-TRV: insurance/finance... who knows...

oops... forgot UPS. Next on Deck...

they probably will miss earnings...

Watchlist:
YHOO (july22): my spec is that Icahn got onto Yahoo!s board because they are desperate.

HOT (july 24 before open) & WYNN (july 24 after close): the bad news has just started... the worst is ahead of them... i say HOT will be at the same levels after 9/11.

Gut Instincts realized

AAPL fell despite another record quarter... its the guidance... otherwise i do think in a couple weeks (maybe days), the buyers will be back when they digest the significant shift towards Macs & iPhones, iPods are now an afterthought. They cant keep enough iPhones in supply... but you have some people planting a few seeds of doubt in the stock with questions about Steve Jobs health and the next CEO. What a nice set up for bulls... i say over 200 again in January... possibly October... ha! I would be surprised if i get my $ back on that Oct250call.(update: to clarify i was tossing some sarcasm) but i think there is HUGE upside... just not in the near term

SNDK: fell like a rock. finally a put in my favor... mind you its been over a week since i grabbed a real winner.

AXP: my suspicions were incorrect, i missed the put of the day.

Buys...

Bought:
SNDK october17.5puts AND aug22.5call (bear bias: didnt want to buy calls, just covering my butt)
YHOO aug15puts AND Jan32.5call (long bull bias, buyout merge spec)

Held:
RHT jan12.5put

chicken to trade: AAPL (i think it goes up +10) (update: bot Oct250call who knows, but i think they will surprise, its just the crazy guidance they keep giving usually stinks, i think AAPL is undervalued)

Waiting patiently to trade: HOT (i think it goes down -6)

Next On Deck...

AAPL: i am hoping the thing sells off prior to earnings... then i will buy a call... maybe a put on the side... they have the potential to surprise... upside... this gets the headlines that GOOG did AND the option premiums are difficult for a small player like me. (mind you i got whacked this past week: USO somewhat, HOT late exit, GOOG... ouch)
AMX: huge Latin/S. America telecom... toss up...
APX: V and MA get the attention...
BAC: the govt manipulates too much. not worth it
BSX: medical devices, may be worth a strangle
SNDK: this may be worth it... one put please...

This week was nonetheless instructive.
-the big names may reward big, but the premiums are prohibitive
-BIDU mirrors GOOG and the options were cheaper.
-any of the 4 horsemen would have been a way to position for GOOG
-MSFT was looked over... they are huge, but played second fiddle, BUT rewarded way more than GOOG. cheap puts + huge returns = happy individual investor. i am hoping that SNDK will be that on Monday.

NO time to hang my head. I almost expected to lose... sad... will get back to the disciplined trading that made me basically double my meager accounts. worked hard and stayed out of trouble...

props to GIO on overstock.com... btw, i bought a put myself today...

Learned A Few Things...

BIDU was a much better July option trade than GOOG... as well as RIMM
GOOG august is the only choice next time around... if on expiration day...

CONGRATS TO all the GOOG aug options holders, $NAS index, RIMM, BIDU holders.

i will give some props to ʻmytoneʻ who mentioned positioning BIDU instead of GOOG.

Worthless

Got a bunch of worthless GOOG options... want some? it is in the red... but not enough...

As FLY says... "developing"

I forgot about positioning for C...

Well, GOOG was a total mess for me... i dont think it will hit any of my strikes... and time decay is also a factor. it really stinks...

So, do we gap to 460 or 530? I dunno... anyway, best to plan for AAPL. The most confusing of all tech. except for this past 1st Q guidance, the tendency is to under guide. cʻmon S.Jobs, reward your fellow option buyers... July 21 after hours

I am just waiting for HOT for earnings... they cant smooth talk their way out as GOOG did today.

MSFT was a better play...

I looked at MSFT earlier in the day... and i regret not putting something in there... the puts/calls were WAYYYY cheaper than GOOG. and its direction is firm...

Mother market taketh away-eth...

After-Market... Worse Case scenerio playing out

So the aftermarket is bearish, but there is an upswing on the bollinger (20) on my real-time chart. The point is it may have fell hard but as the conference goes on, buying is happening... it could be a blah day for GOOG tomorrow.

Say goodbye to $500. see ya next year...

Tomorrow will show what i have to left to recover from all this... missed the move in USO/HK/etc in order to position for GOOG. NOT WORTH the trouble next time...

GOOG buffet... Mind you i could lose all of it...

Between 3:30 and 3:43 pm EST, I BOUGHT the following...

CALL SIDE: july 600@1.6, 620@.45, 640@.30 kinda unrealistic. but hey this is tech...

PUT SIDE: july 450@1.1,420@.30 very possible...

BOTTOM LINE:
I am VERY aware of the fact i could lose ALL off these contracts... Especially if GOOG is flat... However, if i told you last earnings that a $150 risk would bank 12,000... hey that is what you call leverage.

With that in mind, my view at this time is i LOST all of the above at about 4:30 p.m. EST
... 60% to cash... other opportunities await...

HK... wow it gets blasted again... FED/GOVT/PREZ

Well i for one didnt think HK would get dumped on. This thing is dirt cheap today, but i am alas focussing on GOOG. It would have made a nice short for me had i not had jury duty yesterday. I couldnt help thinking about the market yesterday, knowing i was missing some of the biggest swings in history. This would have funded my GOOG in a large way... oh well.

I cant help but think that this bull thing that the FED & Banks are selling are worthless. We will go lower... I EXPECT A CRASH. The govt is essentially asleep at the wheel. Bush doesnt care, he is leaving. Btw, November something is when they vote in a new Prez. I think the market will without a doubt move in a HUGE way!

update!!! crude oil <$130 possible strangle? not for me...

GOOG stock begets BIDU... By the way, AAPL

These stocks are almost bound together. I dont think the same can be said for AMZN. They are purely retail...

GOOG/BIDU play off each other I am thinking whether i can position elsewhere to go off GOOG earnings. BIDU itself reports July 23. The Olympics is the unknown factor...

btw, AAPL is nearing 8% of US PC sales. Amazing... there is no need mention of iPhones. Their market share was 5% just 2 years ago. They grew 38% this Q alone. The irony of all this is that they were able to do this due to adding Windows-native capabilities. In the end Apple is a hardware company that uses software to differentiate itself. But the fact that they have the FASTEST desktop/mobile hardware to run Windows is just plain hilarious.

Anyway, I expect AAPL to give blah guidance and thus keep its stock from exploding upward. But I foresee huge movements maybe a couple days later, when people ingest the possibility that Apple may one day have 20% of the US market as it once did when they ruled. For now tho the economy stinks. It is sad that Apple wont let AAPL reflect the actual success of its business.

Waiting on GOOG... USO thoughts

I am waiting to get closer to the end of the session to firm my decision...
I do know that I will buy July options. I will risk one portfolio. If it moves half as much as last earnings there will be alot of happy options folks...

Gio had a survey for option positions yesterday. he was smart to get the puts yesterday... i thought of it but thought if the rally continued i would pay another premium...

Considerations: this is with the thought that i lose it all...
puts: july420 & 450/aug400
calls: july600 & 630

Will check back tomorrow... i am in a somber mood. not much excitement.

USO has gotten absolutely pounded the last few sessions. as it should, with the FED saying the may very will firm or even raise rates took the floor out from oil. i LEAP in oil puts is a great idea. DUG LEAP calls are still cheap as well...

RUNNING OF THE BULLS!

Man what a day... glad i sold my HOT when i did...
I am sick about missing this swing...

GOOG looked on fire... it is best i wait for the best entry possible, but it looks as if i missed the best entry for my call option. Obviously my cheap aug400put is worth less than what i ate today.

I do hope this run continues through earnings... then we can reset for another drop.

Failure to sell... GOOG Patience required...

Well, I didnt get up early WFC says something bullish and now my HOT is paying for it... I am in effect in no-mans land... SO I SOLD... The bollinger band would have had me sell early and switch to calls, but alas i live in Hawaii... 330am gets old sometimes.

GOOG positions will best wait on Thursday... no sense trying to catch top/bottom today.

I missed out on USO 2nd drop... Energy getting pounded was expected, but my view was a bit clouded after the other day...

Gio has some interesting point on G$$GLE. It will be HUGE one way or the other... the last time GOOG reported. A $50 call ended up being worth... hmm $4000! the next day. Crazy... talk about a risk reward worth taking...

I am in essence all CASH and hold $50 worth of options/stocks sitting worthless...GOOG day tomorrow... Forget NOK my brain is so fried... I WILL re-enter HOT/MAR day of earnings depending on the trend, possibly earlier if the ugly news creep up sooner.

Today was all bulls... enjoy it now... we will revisit this the Bear stuff in a few weeks, maybe days...

INTC beat...

I am not shocked, to be honest its all about the mobile laptops... i am sure AAPL helps...

Depending on how Wall Street reacts, it will direct my option strike, altho i already have an Aug400put.

I am only holding HOT puts. I am a bit worried on a follow through tomorrow and MAR looked strong... on the other hand WYNN couldnt finish in the green.

I got NO CLUE what is happening tomorrow and thus 60% of my portfolio sits in cash...

Where am I?

I couldnt find anything worth buying except 1 GOOG put. It is TOO volatile for me. Sure some want to short energy - fine. I dont want any thing to do with energy (for at least a day - too sickening). I am concentrating my efforts on earnings for THIS WEEK.

GOOG:
I did buy one GOOG aug400put again with plans to buy a call day of earnings and add another put if it stuck to a specific range. i thought of buying BIDU/RIMM to mirror GOOG, but i am unsure how closely they would stick.

NOK: They will have something to say about their inability to compete with iPhone. Or is this already built into the stock...

COF: It never did break to green...

HOT may have rallied today (along with MAR), but this really is a false sector rally. Nothing in the economy has improved hotel occupancy, so for some of you out there, consider it a gift to find a cheaper put/short

In the end USO was the only position to burn me... sadly i didnt set a stop. oh and i kept getting false data from my brokerage account. it showed a 5% loss on my account value until i clicked the specific option, which showed a 40% loss. Even after USO came off its lows @110 AND after I sold my loser put, it still showed my account positions unchanged from the open! Horrible... but alas i have only myself to blame for going against the trend. No breakout... just breakdown again. I have no choice to regroup. I could have sold the meager profit on my HOT and reposition to lessen todays blow... So, remember my saying how awesome AMTD is? Well, today they stunk it up...

I am getting Smacked!!!

I was watching USO getting 146+/barrel. I then watch it settle and find nothing going on with USO. I go and so something for a 1/2 hour and BAM, USO is getting hammerred (i thought of buying puts for a second just prior...too little too late)

Realize though that Oil is nothing go hard on shorts/puts. To make matters worse, I sold off GOOG & RIMM puts too early, but who knew. Anyway, i have some decisions to make... Hold... or even Buy...

My only consolation is that i left my Portfolio B alone. Which basically gained 100% the other day...

Oil UP Because the $US/U.S. Eco STINKS...

So the Dollar falls hard against the Euro... Thus Oil is up a bit. What now FED? You gonna panic and raise rates after bailing out FNM, FRE, BSC, and whoever else we dont know about. I say go ahead and start a new trend for us...

I think we will see how well the banks were able to manage the bad news the previous quarters. USB reports today...

A co-worker mentioned EW, Medical related... You can do your own homework on it. The question will always be guidance and the fact is the economic backdrop makes a breakout that less likely. But such surprises are truly surprises and can reward greatly, see CSIQ...

I plan to watch the following closely today:
USO: weak dollar again
HOT/MAR: both still trends down below 52 week lows
GOOG: hoping this thing actually picks up a bit (cheaper puts)
USB, C, SKF: its all about financials today
DECK: missed this fall again, but shaggy shoes in this market?

Plan is to sell Oil into this latest trend... and bombard vacation related

BOUGHT... HOLD... Check Out Bank problems ahead...

BUYS:
-HOT aug25puts & nov30put: I reloaded on HOT, with November puts to ride... A market bounce does not change Starwoods future. I wish I bought MAR puts last week. It still has room to fall to about $14/$15 low found in 2002, just before the last bull market and post 9/11.

HELD:
-USO aug117call: Stronger $US keeping it from breaking out, yet $/barrel going sideways, but one attack in middle east spells a spike...
-RHT jan12.5put: boring... but look at it! It is dying slowly... almost no option volume, just waiting for future stink earnings.

Props to GIO who got a nice spike on CSIQ. I almost bought it today... nope. I cant go against the general market trend. I dont have the fortitude to follow solars. Apologies to Brian, maybe he should have bought that iPhone position... and sold. It was a net 100%+ on calls with the same going for puts if you positioned for a fade.

Watchlist: MAR, GOOG, NOK, C.

CHECK out this link, thot FNM/FRE like fiascos are over? think again...
www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a1liVM3tG3aI&refer=exclusive

Fiscal Immorality...See for yourself...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OS2fI2p9iVs

SOLD back to mother market

SOLD!!!
misfire GOOG aug400put (-23%): accidental buy... it was suppose to sell...

RIMM july95put (about -7 to 10% loss): i was just happy i almost broke even. i had a 200% gain once on these that didnt sell

LEH aug12.5put (-13%): looks like the FNM/FRE bailout will give a slight bounce here.

HOT aug30puts (50% gain): grab that profit and dont be greedy, looked like it bottomed for today (update: i was wrong). may reset at end of session

GOOG aug400put (100% gain): will rebuy somewhere on day of earnings, i saw a blip on the Bollinger real time that showed it might have reached bottom AND wanted to keep the profit to make up for the STUPID accidental buy at the market open.

So my portfolio stands with:
USO aug117call: pressure from stronger $US, but supply worries secondary to instability in suppliers

Misfire...

I have a 100% gain on GOOG aug400put, but instead of selling it, my automated trigger bought another option. yikes. have to pay attention to that... especially if the wife is talking (distracting). So, wasted a few bucks selling it back to minimize my risk... RIMM is still connecting with GOOGs losing ground... i am thinking of selling this too...

HOT is continuing is spiral downward. I sold off MAR a bit too soon as it too is hitting a new low as i type this.

AAPL play would have been solid had someone bought last friday and set up a sell at todays open.

I am nervously holding USO. I am itching to get out... the real time price per barrel is what i am watching in relation to it.

TOSS UP...

Well, there are a bunch of people prognosticating a bounce. Scary stuff... my portfolio is 80% bearish... well actually almost half of that is a call on oil... technically ʻbearʻ causing...

Anyway, thursday GOOG earnings will be interesting as will NOK. i will set up a far call for GOOG as I did a far put.

Things are VERY difficult to gauge. I will quickly sell off for profit... if the bounce does come it will pretty much shut down most of my portfolio...

USO is my only safety... spooky... HOT could still crash and burn even with the market bouncing. Past history showed the thing <$10 through the early/mid 1990s, followed by 1998 to 2003 being stuck in the 20 to 30 range, while money was being pumped into internet plays. The point is this could still go lower, it is obvious the chart shows it likely goes higher, but i really dont know.