*Sigh* The Market Continues to be Manipulated

Well... Reports surface that Apples new iPhone G3-S, pre-order units sold out! But as you know the market is down today. Dont get me wrong i totally want my bear position to get back in play...

I do foresee (like many others), that Apple will open up the iPhone to Verizon at the very least. They have the leverage to prove that the iPhone will retain customers. They can always threaten to remove the phone from any carrier if they dont comply in some way.

Apple also finally dropped prices across the board for their laptops. That gives you a HUGE indication of where they think this economy is going in the next few months/quarters. I hope they do the same for the desktops as well. (I want to buy my wife an iMac and hopefully a cheaper 24 inch will lead to covering the cost of VMware Fusion - *sigh* Windows still required)

Anyway, i have a sleeping put that will expire in July...hopefully it catches fire by then. It acts more as an insurance policy in that portfolio. I still have FAZ sitting around as well in another portfolio. So... thats it...

Europe awaits in about 3 weeks... so who cares what happens to the market while i am away...

MSFT... xBOX...PROJECT NATAL Impressive...

MSFT finally has something "Apple-ish".

They weren't the first to develop the "Minority Report-like" interface... But the demo was very impressive. Sony had something similar called "eye-toy". But several observers have mentioned that Natal is more comprehensive and incorporates voice command.

The fact is there was are still questions:
1) nothing about how much this upgrade or addition to an existing xBox will cost
2) the SDK is still in the works

However, MSFT was right to present this now... it doesn't seem like the Vaporware of the past. The thing is this Natal thing MUST be accurate for gameplay.

In the end, MSFT doesn't hold a patent on this, although they seem ahead of the competition, as was evident by their apparently surprising the rest of the gaming world. So, we shall see how quickly the competition moves to catch or surpass what MSFT is offering.

And the rumors of Apple releasing a gaming device? Sorry to disappoint, but I think it is basically the iPod touch. But knowing how Apple works it's R&D they too could blow us away soon at the WWDC next week.

S&P still on course to 1100.

Bears lie in wait... S&P continues toward 1100

Well, I have no position worth mentioning except my short position that awaits another crash. However, it seems as though this will not happen until the fall.

if it happens earlier... fine. If not, I am waiting with some cash sitting cautiously.

SOLD TAN... BOUGHT M puts

well, retail numbers were worse than expected... and guess what. The market actually LOGICALLY reacted to the news NOT ignored it.

I was a bit bummed that i didnt pay more attention to TAN. Should have sold it at 10. I end up breaking even... despite this last huge rally. Safe to say I will not use TAN as an energy play again - unless volume get >1.5M... which i have never seen.

I used the proceeds of TAN to get some M puts that expire in 2 days. The market will be tested from here on out and may look for a bottom faster than I anticipated. I was thinking the S&P would get up to 1050. That might not be the case.

Thus, if the market finally decides to head lower according to news and NOT Govt hype, then my portfolio will be resurrected (as I thought it would)

Twitter was down for maintenance today, so there are a bunch of people who are probably lost. I for one only publish if i have an actual trade.

laters...

Hurry Up to 1050 will you!!!

S&P continues its upward rally to 1050. Monday again was pull back day/dip buying day. So what else is new?

I just want this market to spike up to 1050 already... being that most of my portfolio sits on the short end.

Alas, my staying to cash prior to FAZ moving from 17-22 in 2 days would have been more prudent, yes? That was some time ago. In fact, I recall Tim of all people talking about this move on the S&P to 1050 before most if not anyone else. I believed him until that dumb FAZ buy... Anyway, my portfolio will continue to haunt me. I have no doubt it will resurrect itself once more.

Some are talking about a 10-20% correction is in the works. Personally, I think maybe a bigger correction, BUT with a huge bear rally of all rallies. And at that time I will commit.... hmm 50%... that would be my diplomatic answer. I have been caught too many times in the wrong direction, and it kills me when I was in the right direction to begin with. HEDGING has never been my strong suit, but in the end, it is a requirement.

See you all @1050 or maybe 1100.

Mondays have been bear days/dip buying... AAPL reports soon.

So, here i am watching all this stuff unfold and i am stuck on the sideline AGAIN!!!

The basic pattern for the last month or so is...
Friday: take profits friday and hedge big with shorts/puts.
Monday: sell puts with a small block to buy bear ETFs on any bounces.
Tues-Thursday: watch your Longs make $$$$.

So, what else is new?
Well, if Tuesday doesnt sell off, then dont expect anything changing from the pattern i just mentioned.

What i learned?
ALWAYS have something ready when this kind of action happens. Inevitably patience wins out... Look at my old posts and see where i benefitted from waiting with a planned exit. But when i just bought with the long view of holding (knowing the next bear crash could come any day... or so i thought like many.), i got pounded to bits.

Anyway, it looks like we will open green Tuesday... any close that stays green heavily ways in the Bulls favor.

One more thing... AAPL reports wednesday - its earnings could totally throw things outta whack... for bears or bulls... stay tuned.

Exchange Rates....

Well, i am looking at Euro vs. $US. Interesting how the $US as nearly 80% versus the Euro. A couple years back on my honeymoon it more like $1 = .67ish Euros. Horrible exchange. But with the US Govt printing money to cover the credit side of things, i better get me a good exchange now.

Its funny how i am treating this exchange thing for my European trip much as i would a traded stock (i dont do FOREX). This year the $US versus Euro has ranged from .75 to .79+. Last year .63 to .78

Following older data it seems that the $US strength really follows the strength of the market. Interesting... Thus, i am thinking that i may need to get a 1/2 position now, as we know a crash may soon be upon us, with another rally to follow.

Of course, the bears will be back, but it may take until 2010 for that to happen. Man, i wished i just bought long term-puts on FAS and FAZ instead....

*sarcasm* North Korea says they will still make bomb-grade plutonium... Market will go up Right?

This market is mental... N.Korea "...we will [keep doing what we want]..."

So far lets see how things have been working out.

Banks that have been bailed out somehow claim a profit! - market up
The unemployment numbers have trended up, but not as bad as thought - market up
Houses not sold at record numbers - market up
North Korea?... Whadda ya think? Market up...

Pay your taxes Wednesday... i filled an extension, maybe i shouldnt, since the govʻt OWES ME money. Anyway, i just gotta hand it off to my CPA and thats it.

Hey, i just got a hang nail!!!... MARKET UP...

Excuse the sarcasm, but this bear rally (though not unexpected) annoys me.

Wake Me Up When This Smokescreen is over...

Obama did his job in boosting the market. Thanks man, my portfolio thought you were going to say those things early on in January. What happened? I was totally long. I then switched to shorting and made up some loss $$$$. But in the end all this talk of "hope" is empty until we see a true reversal of the unemployment numbers.

Anyway, the technicals say we may be headed to 1050... Again... Hello, i thought all this stuff was going to happen 2 weeks ago when i was to cash. And waited patiently for an entry to FAZ while holding on to FAS. NOPE... Timing off on that one.

I am basically stuck with my stupid FAZ. AND my only true long TAN isnt moving much. A tech ETF or at least FAZ puts/FAS calls would have protected my dumb position. ALWAYS HEDGE in volatility.

Wake me up when this stupidity is over. The economy is nowhere out of the woods. And yet the market is ignoring all the bad press and when anyone from the FED or govt has something positive, we get a >3% day.

*YAWN* time to shut down my MAC for tonight.


On a fun note: The NBA...
Congrats to the Cavs for getting the best record. Granted the Lakers seemed uninspired to do it themselves, but they basically could have got it if they really wanted to. LEBRON is the MVP for this year. He learned to improve his game by hanging with Kobe during the Olympics. Smart move. He does need a little more help to get a ring though.
Considering how Jordan kept the 90s Cavs (not to mention most eastern conference teams) from getting to the Finals, it is refreshing to know the Cavs finally have a descent chance of winning it all. If i were Lebron, i would see my options in places like... NYC, (even LA, it aint happening of course... Sorry Kobe, but if Lebron accepted a MLE, what reason would Buss have to keep Kobe.) Anyway. Lebron puts pressure on the Cavs to supply him with winning role players by saying he would consider other cities. He could use a true defensive/rebounding big man (since he already got Mo Williams) and that would be it, they would be the favorites. For now the Lakers Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, Odom quartet is scary... They rarely if ever played at a high level at the same time. If that happened, the Lakers are destined for another dynasty. If not, the Cavs will be there with Orlando being their primary nemesis. The Lakers will be set for the next 3/4 years if they come through this year.

REALITY:
The Market has been kicking my butt for 2 1/2 years... If my accounts go dry... That may be it... I may turn this site to an empty shell of what-ifs and no more early retirement.... I am almost begging that my account doesnt resurrect itself as it has so many times.... i havent been able to manage my account along with work, my wife, my volunteer work, and just the every day stuff. There is this scriptural thought that says: "You cannot slave for two masters.".... very true indeed. Anyway, i am still vested short for the long term.