Sunday, March 30, 2008


There earnings report is soon upon us... However, the future is a bit fuzzy.

The leaked specs/photos of their Blackberry 9000 was a disappointment to me. They were rumored to have a touchscreen and some other stuff. nope... the screen is still the same... and icons are basically changed. thatʻs it. itʻs still an awesome device. but i wonder about the competition... outside of Apple. Everyone is stepping up. RIMM has a huge business following that doesnt need the fancy stuff. However, their fastest growing segment are the consumers... Thatʻs where the battle lines have been drawn.

I do expect a good earnings report... the guidance is always key (aka sales pitch).

Employment report also ahead... and i obviously hope it knocks around the Market... to benefit my puts.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

What Goes UP... Must...

Anyway, housing news 13 year low in new home sales. So, what else is new?

Apple is rumored to have 10 Mil G3 iPhone versions on order in Asia. Confident... And the story still is that Macs are selling. iPods seem to be getting some of its base moving over to iPhones.

As for my theoretical position FXP be hold

My real positions basically consist of V and a few puts out there... WFC, IWM, JPM, FXI, i cant remember the rest... but worth very little compared to V.

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

From Here I will do a what if scenrio...

Yesterday, if i had the $ i would have bought an IWM April66put@90. It would have cashed out 150 at the open... on my 50% gain option rule...

I also said i would have bought some FXP pre-market... i would have gotten in @100 which would be negative right now... but we'll see how the day proceeds.

I might have also nipped at DHI puts, but i dont think it would be whacked hard enough.

So, the score:
IWM: winner
FXP: undecided red (so far)
V: who's a hold

Monday, March 24, 2008

Manipulations of the Street....

JPM raises its bid for BSC to $10. Glad i bought V instead of suffering through all the manipulating going on. So, they report a bid of $2 last week. knowing the market will drop... so hey, why not buy a bunch of puts/shorts before releasing that info to the public... $$$... so now that everyone was suckered why not change the bid to $10 (knowing the market will head higher), but buy some index calls and BSC calls prior to announcement. And hey there you go again...

Also existing home-sales were better than expected. So the homebuilders can cheer. New home sales are a different story. The thing is the Street is already expecting bad numbers... So, any good news keeps homebuilders in the green. But i think theyʻre a LONG short/put.

Anyway, i am glad i got V instead. Sure its down today... but this LONG is solid. So, i have no headaches in the market (so far)

So, if i had some extra cash what would i do? buy some FXP premarket tomorrow and set a stop... or an IWM Apr66put. As itʻs hit a Fib. Oh well, iʻll sit V. No headaches.... no rushing back in...

Lastly, reminder out there... RIMM April 2, GOOG April 17, AAPL April 23... The three horsemen, i could care less about AMZN (also Apr 23). I will be listing a more comprehensive list... So, there are your main stranggle dates.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Like I Said: "Bouncing Ball"

Wow what a day if you played a fade. It was tempting, but i figured V was ALOT less risky. I almost broke even last year. It all could have changed based on 2 bad trades. And this year I lost a few thou. So, itʻs time to go semi-conservative again... preservation to participate on the big day. Straight up stock...

So 400 points the previous day... So, left them puts in play. Guess what, all the Ag related puts i suffered holding will turn green tomorrow, they already broke even the day after that huge rally. HELLO!!! Itʻs a bear market.

You know this guy i know called Gio (who sometimes leaves remarks here), told me this thing he does...
On triple digit a contrarian for the day. (Of course I add my addition, with a long trend on going bear), So if the Dow is up like yesterday, buy them cheap puts... he especially likes SKF & FXP. Very sensitive and volume friendly. Then when then Dow gets pounded, short the SKF/FXP. pretty simple huh. But itʻs easier to position to on a DOW triple green day... why HELLO!!! Itʻs a bear market.

Btw, V. Itʻs a LONG...LONG...LONG. It may take some time to make some $$$ with it. But hey, it doesnʻt expire like options. If anything, when the options start happening on V. Then buy a few insurance puts for V. Make money both ways.

Btw, you want a big date for a huge swing day in the next month? April 23. AAPL reports...

Getting Rid of Some Guesswork

Bought a few shares of V. All based on the premise that MA is in the 200ʻs... and yet V opens in the 50ʻs. Pretty dumb not to get any shares even in a bear market. The V people were smart to move their IPO to this day with the increased likelihood of buyers around the time the FED cuts.

Anyway, still have some puts just sitting there. Worth just a few hundred... Not much to talk about there.

Bunch of earnings report that i failed to even look at.. ADBE, MS, etc. all moving up. But i dont think ADBE is as powerful as it used to be with a few cheaper versions that pretty much do what Photoshop does. MS is well...just another financial company, speaking of which - GS is so much better than the other financial institutions, they keep beating expectations.

Sony Ericsson warns of falling phone sales... yawn... i didnt even bother reading the article. Suffice it to say RIMM & AAPL will battle it out while the rest of the phone world plays catch-up

Well, V can just sit there... and now my portfolio is basically just that... V

Tuesday, March 18, 2008


FOR YEARS UPON YEARS... AAPL pundits - namely Windoze backers have cried out... "Apple is a niche company with a small market share...." Well the have you seen itʻs retail market share lately? So this doesnʻt count Appleʻs online sales or DELL & HPQ.

But itʻs stunning to say the least...
14% market share in February or 60% increase while the rest of the market period growth was 9%
$1 of every $4 spent on PCʻs in Feb was on an Apple... thatʻs a 67% increase YOY (Year over year) vs. 5% for the rest of the industry.

So, while Wall St looks at iPhones (which are really Macs themselves), the Mac universe grows against a terrible economy.

Anyway, todays expected rally added another $6 to AAPL to 132. I remember looking at those cheap calls when APPL was at $119 just over a week ago... But thatʻs my name "Stuck"trader... sickening...

Well, today has been educational... the rate cuts fire up the buying, if only a day... so hedge them puts with a few calls that move.

Follow the Bouncing Ball

Well, Gio has suggested for some time now to keep an eye on the VIX.

He also noted yesterday to position a few puts and a call hedge on GS earnings. Boy what a swing. I stupidly decided on not have a positioning IWM/JPM long puts at all on the Bear/JPM day.
What i SHOULD have done was add a call hedge using LEH or GS, which both carried equally DIRT CHEAP calls. against my long puts. But i assumed the market would slide downward at days end. Alas, yet another lost opportunity because of a wrong assumption.

Earnings carry such a swing these days that a strangle set cannot be ignored. The other missed opportunities iʻve experienced on both ends: FSLR, RIMM & MON calls while the market tanked. So, if iʻm going to throw some puts out there.. it doesnʻt hurt to buy a $10 hedge. After all i could win on both the hedge and the long put.

I wanted to buy cheap puts at todayʻs end if a rally ensued(which obviously did)... but my alarm was turned off by my wife... i am going to be sick if the market stinks it up tomorrow.

After all weʻre basically trading a bouncing ball... itʻll eventually go back down

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Unheard of... JPM/BSC/ The Fed

I am TOTALLY sick for having sold my JPM & IWM puts last week. Congrats to all the SKF longs/calls.

I really don't know how this will play out. The FED also cut the rate by another .25 and promised to send even more money to bail out these rich dudes who are in essence fleecing the honest hard working people like us...

I hope the market crashes the way Asia and so far Europe at the time of this post. But knowing how things work... the small guys like me get smacked again.

btw, WFC is my only finance related stock left on my table. NOw that is sad...

PANIC PANIC PANIC is indeed back...

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Somethinʻs Up.

Well the market bounced off the bottom at the type of this blog. And as usual i failed to wake up or set my sell in the morning. BUT i do think we have somethinʻ up (rather down) in the near future... namely after the FED talks again. They are basically showing their hand. Interest rates have nowhere to go once we reach zero.

and this thing with the homebuilders going up... unbelievable...

Iʻve already lost more $ this month because my DHI, IWM puts not selling out accordingly to plan. Undisciplined... sigh... Otherwise i happily sit in cash (whatʻs left of it).

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Minimizing Losses

Made the mistake of holding on another day with my puts, namely: DHI, WFC, IWM. The book i read last month stated: "Be quick to sell a loss." Well, it seems that it gets somewhat confusing when dealing in a bear market, and going with a down trend. Yet, that phrase kept whispering in my ear yesterday. Gotta listen to it.

I am not sad about my AGU/POT puts that i added yesterday, since they were so small and outa range, but set up for a $ if the market continued to sink. I will in fact add IWM puts after the FED cut rates again. There is no way for Ben to keep the U.S. from recession.

Oh, lastly... thereʻs this dude... Gio. He shared what he was doing a week or 2 ago. Short when the Dow is up triple and Long when the down triple. Wouldʻve worked yet again... i may do just that, but will wait patiently.

Monday, March 10, 2008

Wish I Woke Up Early... Early Bird get paid...

Trading in Hawaii is mostly a disadvantage. Altho, you can start your day early with trades and still get a lot of other stuff done later in the day.

What a sell-off... AND what a run on gas... i kept saying to myself last week, " i should buy some USO..."

Anyway, WISH I WOKE UP EARLY!!! and bought puts in those Ags. I would have had a REALLY nice day today. In any case i bought a put each in POT & AGU (iʻm too poor to do more), as opposed to MON... i finally let the bid price come to me and am sitting in the positive. oh wow, itʻs only after the fact that i noticed that POT/AGU(as well as MOS) touched or fell through their 50 day EMA today. Weʻll see if it continues tomorrow, i dont expect anything anymore.

Solars got a whacking today as well... i think the FED opens their mouth this week. but at this point i dont think any rate cut will start a more than a temporary rally if at all.

Sunday, March 9, 2008

Ag... Are They Immune?

MON, MOS, POT, AGU, TRA... They are all still relatively near their 52 wk/all-time highs. Will they be shot down? Donʻt know... But boy thereʻs a great reward if that was to happen

I just saw a documentary on foods/seeds that are genetically engineered. And the companies behind them... What they do to the farmers are incredible. Like a mafia. Iʻve heard of MON pushing around farmers before. Even in Hawaii. So, do i feel bad if i have a chance to short or buy puts? NOPE.

Thursday, March 6, 2008


Just saw some info on iPhone SDK/Enterprise.
Apple has instantly opened up the potential of their customer base outside of the consumer world...

RIMM has got some huge competition coming right at itʻs Enterprise biz. Interestingly Appleʻs use of Microsoft ActiveSync (ironic) eliminates the need for Blackberryʻs NOS system - i.e. data middleman - to get into the coorporate world.

The SDK demo was interesting in which 1 or 2 software engineers from 5 dif companies flew to Apple to create from scratch, new apps for the iPhone/iPod Touch in less than 2 weeks, some of them never have coded for the mac, and in this case were completely blind as to what tools were available to help them build these apps. I must say the games are cools. Itʻs like Nintendo meets iPhone.

Speaking of another Mobile Phone platform: Android... is still some time way from maturity... especially because itʻs made of a bunch of company backers, there could be problems streamlining features. The thing is right now they have a huge bug that allows hackers to control your phone. no doubt that will be fixed. But itʻs apparent that Apple has a huge lead in providing a platform for software developers. Now i am obviously not one of them...

Apple has also created a way for developers to make their apps available to all iPhone/iPod touch users, with little or no additional work on their part. Itʻs like an iTunes, but for software = $$$$$

In the end... the future regarding all of this and those involved are dynamic. so, many things can change. But AAPL stock will have my attention come late November... when many of these Apps will be in play and ready for AAPLʻs newest customer, Enterprise... Oh, and any iPhone deal in China...

Itʻs Already Thursday...

Patience... AEO pays handsomely today... to bad i didnʻt sell before the market closed...

DHI, IWM, WFC, JPM... All made moves lower... so Friday will give me an opportunity to close out some BAD puts and sell a winner or two.

In any case... my year still stinks... i am trying to be patient with my positions, while not buying a bunch of different puts on securities that may very well go sideways. killing bulls AND bears.

i still have a bunch of loser puts that have little or no interest buyers: BDK, WYNN(too far out).

No time to celebrate...

There is a chance for a rally next week with another rate cut coming. but just maybe, the Street has wised up and stop wasting our time with that logic. let the market correct itself...

Monday, March 3, 2008


All winners if you played both the bull & bear. Anyone of us could have been millionaires just trading one of these. itʻs a matter of timing and gut, while getting emotion/panic out of the way.

AMZN. i was too impatient in placing my last put. i will wait for the FED to prop them up a bit. it may be too late for me to get back in. the last earnings it shot up to 80s.

AAPL. made money both up and down. no complaints except my stubborness on MacWorld calls

GOOG. never attempted a put. too expensive... but used to make some $$$ when it nearly touched my 750call... well, i missed switching to puts and there you have it...

RIMM. they always seem to beat earnings & guidance. i sat out the last Q, even tho my gut said stick with them. another lost opportunity.

I am currently looking for anything at new highs... including inverse ETFs. the fringes swing quickly.

Sold TOO soon. Yet...

AAPL broke itʻs support @ 119. There is no doubt this thing will has nowhere to go but down. i thought it would hold right here. Gio mentioned to me it could head to <100. I will be putting another order in at the end of the day.

SOLD! AAPL puts...

150% PROFIT. Sheez (basically to lessen some bad trades i didnt pay attention to). I may jump back in at the end of the session... next week has another rate cut talk coming so i am unsure about any put buying at this point. i will let a rally happen prior to FED talk and maybe do a strangle.

Holding DHI puts for pending home sales March 6...

Otherwise no buys. I have a number of bad puts to chop off... unfortunately no buyers.

I need to save some dough for a nice trip in 2009.