Ideas

Recession?
COST: buy! why? hey bulk food when food prices are going up...
NFLX and BBI sell/short/put! why? renting via mail with higher oil prices affecting parcel charges (i know they have download services now, but is it compatible with iPods? Nope) oh and btw, AAPL is rumored to have more movie studios lining up for its download service.

simple logic...

Stand "Corrected"

Props to be sent out to the "Bee". He calls a correction on solar stocks on wednesday... and bam it hits today. He noted the 100% plus over the 200 MA values were vulnerable to correction. IBD notes the 110% rule. That being the case a correction is HEALTHY. Allow the stock to take a break. Note the current rally is off much selling for the end year.

btw, i am still wondering when AAPL will take a break from this run-up. Although during the last shake up i called for news boosting this stock... and itʻs happened. patience is what iʻm practicing as MacWorld approaches. The market in general will be volatile the next 2 weeks as many pro investors have noted. iʻm hoping the stock flattens out with the market. but the rumors of 5 mil iPhones sold is the current buzz.

i bought some FXP for the time being... tomorrows eco include new home sales, and next week. the FED speaks again, AUTO sales, construction spending, factory orders, unemployment, etc talk about bad news coming.

Lastly, the middle east assassination will likely boost oil prices as a result of questions of stability. i may just buy some USO calls. just maybe...a small piece... oil prices cannot help but grow higher as production costs for the 2nd highest oil supplies (Canada oil sands) increase.

LOOK OUT BELOW!

This is when one should be extremely cautious. Eco news abound this week. And to make matters worse (for bulls), oil will be up as well (Turks invasions). the trend may in fact be down as a whole. so selectivity is key.

Anyway, i patiently wait. Many opportunities in the market (bear or not). I recommended last week to get some FXP prior to today... If you bought Monday, props to you. it should make some dough sometime this week

I'm still very bullish on AAPL. i was looking for 260 LEAP. but based on the volitile sentiments ahead, i may just go for MacWorld and buy Jan'09 calls in the summer. A co-worker (and many investment sites) like MON. Ag is a good place to LEAP. and they're relatively cheap.

We'll see how this week goes, i may very well buy LEAPS on Friday...in both AAPL and MON.

Gun Shy

Well, my previous post shows the effect of a bear sentiment. Being gun shy... I will remember this day... I tried to sell at the market open and made only 50% versus a 100%. Plus i was too far out on my strike to benefit this spike despite being out in March. My original in the money plan was perfect. A guy named FLY scared me off a bit. This is the 2nd time I failed to stick to my convictions regarding RIMM.

Also, my FXP sold off as well... and now... i really have nothing positioned. At least it wasnʻt a loss. But it was a far cry from an 18% gain... which would have funded my RIMM position more adequately.

I look forward to the reading material headed my way... thx to AMZN.

I will use today as a my test for the "big" trade in AAPL. thatʻs over 2 weeks from now... so, i have much time to mull things over. With my mulah... The plan is 2-fold

Portfolio B: AAPL ʻ09 LEAPS (out of the $): hopefully a tax benefit...
Portfolio A: AAPL calls pre-MacWorld or day of... hopefully funds more trades for ʻ08. Hopefully, my risk management has improved.

STREAMLINING = PROFITS... Why ORCL was important.

ORCLʻs report showed a number of things. Their acquisition plans have been spot on... but in the tech world... thereʻs still much money to be made. ORCL just proved that CSCOʻs CEOʻs concerns may be real, but may not affect all Tech. Even with all the Financial Banks, etc getting whacked. They will find ways to STREAMLINE!.CSCO itself surprise us as well. In other words maximizing their networks...so employees leaving the office are well... still in the office. No way theyʻll turn off their Blackberrys. But adding more business users...that may be another story.

RIMM was able to expand itʻs consumer base... basically eat away at the smartphones arena, namely PALM. And the so-called biz smartphones from MOT, NOK, Samsung, theyʻre no match for Blackberrys. AAPL on the other hand rule the multi-media smartphones, eating away at LG & PALM primarily, then NOK, MOT, and the rest.

So there it is... Blackberrys will rule the business space with AAPL being #2. In the multi-media fone space AAPL will rule... and Blackberrys will eventually beat out LG, NOK, Samsung... (MOT stinks)

Speaking of streamlining. that plays into AAPLʻs favor as well. Laptops running Mac & Windows (desktops are for gamers). and the fact that Vista stinks (i didnʻt say it, the Windows fan base are letting it be known. They donʻt want to jump ship necessarily, just complain and hope the Vista service pack fixes the 20% slowdown that theyʻre experiencing). Educational institutions are recognizing the dual-booting Macs as the way to cover 100% of their users (LINUX included). And the fact that professors are having their lectures downloadable, plays into the iTunes/iPod phenomenon.

So, while we are far from a market that is rallying... the gems RIMM, AAPL, GOOG...gets the nod when it comes to earnings. That of course will be based on how it trades prior to reports. We want them to be knocked around...then surprise everyone, which is what RIMM did.

ARGH!!!

The "better" traders out there recommended against RIMM. It tempered my risk... but there went the BOOYAH!!! instead iʻm cashing change... oh well... It bodes well for AAPL come January... so thank RIMM for that...

I will now be positioning AAPL LEAPS on any bad news with portfolio B. and jump on AAPL calls on MacWorld day...

more to say later...

RIMM day

Even in a "bear" market you can find a few gems. But you can get whacked too. Core inflation report tomorrow & eco data from next week present ominous signs... BSC & FDX were expected to post losses so nothing specific to their earning is bringing down the market.

The dilemma is that RIMM could trade in a bubble for a few days. risking nothing never pays anyone... (then again thereʻs nothing to lose). if RIMM does suprise then horray!!! iʻm buying puts... so, with the chump change i have left in portfolio A, iʻm thinking of a March call far out. then cash it (assuming it goes green). use that cash to buy them puts... FLY doesnt like the way it is trading...

i canʻt wait for 2007 to end... the credit crunch & greedy lenders....LED to mortgage write downs/ housing woes. Oil was always an issue, so alternatives energy were the benefactors. i guess i have to summarize all this later for my benefit.

RIMM

I had no idea it reports so early...

Although i donʻt believe it will be a homerun as AAPL. It has nontheless expanded to several countries. Even if it just beats earnings and give aggressive guidance, i think news of a touchscreen to challenge the iPhone will be the catalyst to this stock.

The trend down has been all but played out.


if i see what data i find is reasonable... i will be in the money Marchʻ08calls to protect from downside risk. and still benefit from a nice pop... i donʻt plan to hold this thing beyond friday. the other way to position this is to short or buy puts at market open if the stock does indeed pop

The influencing factors include BSC, FDX, and a bunch of eco data (jobs report, inflation data) will also be on the table tomorrow AND friday...

All Things Considering...

Iam having a down year thus far... with the market following my lead...HA! Anyway, so many charts are bearish (technically) that i am totally overwhelmed. I'm not sure if we're officially in a bear market...but my FXP will sit for awhile.

Happily, i am watching my December puts make a comeback altho many are outa range. still it looks like i'll have losses to cash out rather than going to zero
-IWM, SNCR (why it went up mystifies me), DRYS (too way out, but still has a chance), GOOG & FSLR (too far out)...

Jan/Feb puts: AKAM (jus a matter of time), FRE (maybe not a good idea), PALM (turned into non-standard options after huge divident payout - it's way in the money but no one is touching it)

Tech took a giant spill today. The leaders will fight to stay bullish... and can knock bears will a few upper-cuts (as i've experienced in the past). I hope my learning by experience will help me to be more vigilant.

Come On Down (I miss watching The Price is Right)

AAPL is coming down as was shown by the lovely candlesticks...
i really hope this thing keeps coming down and stick below 200 before MacWorld. I want as much negativity prior to MacWorld for a pop.

FXP is on fire... but iʻm cautious as to how long this lasts... anyway, as one cartoon character would say, (the sky)BIDU is falling! (the sky)BIDU is falling! Nevermind falling to 350, it could be at 300 by weeks end!


Agriculture is popping up on everyones radar. So, it would be best to get in now. But alas, i will wait and watch other people make money.

Some are citing a rally in financials... i donʻt believe it... especially if the best of breed GS is down.

Wow Lau Lau

Wow... AAPL actually touched 200 today...granted it fell off to 190ish due to inflation worries(uhh, hello? credit, housing, give up FED, let the recession happen!) Anyway, the AAPL bulls cashed out fast... It was a "falling star" when u look at the candlesticks.



Notice too, lowering closing lows...
Still, AAPL long is the best pick for 2008 IMO. do uʻr own research.

It looks as if thereʻs a number of people hedging chinaʻs bubble is gonna burst (like a spleen). there doesnʻt seem to be much tumble in for cha-ching stocks today specifically, but yet, "they" keep bidding FXP up. after the olympics...is when the bears can truly time this thing... anyway, itʻs my only significant position. Wouldnʻt you know it, the most boring way to stay in the market can make a "bit" of dough.

"More Ethenol Use?"

Whoever is trading corn... thank the govʻt now...

So much food is being burned for fuel. Now food prices will go up... (sans processed food)

Itʻs late... Iʻm sleeping on it.

LATE POST

A few days back a bought a bunch of FXP (i think it was Monday 12/10)...
It was a day where TIM and FLY both bought FXP... weird...

i was so tired of getting up early and giving money to my broker... and iʻm the one thatʻs getting "broker".

My regret of the year? Not sticking with AAPL... dumb...
When it dropped below 150, it was a definite long call/LEAP... but alas iʻm stuck as my name suggests...


Just waiting for Dec options to expire...then iʻm on to buying AAPL Jan250 or 260 LEAPSʻ09.

I may have a little fun a position a one time trade @ MacWorld... but other than that... let it ride...
at least until i clear some 2007 "debt"...

My portfolio A has an error by overstating my balance 100% more... they mock me...

THANKS FED!!!

AND there you have it 25b.p. from the FED (bulls wanted 50), and suddenly my puts are still in play the last 2 weeks of these pulverized options.

Waiting sure paid off... I was really sick to have missed this mini rally...
Iʻm lining up my favorites for earnings day!!!
-GOOG, RIMM, AAPL, FSLR (GRAF, who btw, was a great tennis player)

Tim must be dancing... While Fly is thankful he had something to cash out... and so buys FXP.

Guess what... If TIM + FLY go the same way then i jump on that bandwagon.

So, TIM + FLY = STUCKTRADER! (bought a bunch of FXP)

I wonʻt be holding on to these very long... The bulls may come back tomorrow and rationalize that 25bps are good if they keep on coming...

FOMC!

Those letters will ring $$$ for both sides... likely the bulls. As for my Portfolio "B": I may just go ahead and buy Jan260Call-LEAPS.

The outlook isolated to AAPL is extremely bullish as my previous posts point out. It may be time to let this security sit...for the year and benefit from the tax break.

FSLR may also be my only other position if the FED gives the "green" light. pun intended for my "green" energy pick.

RIMM & GOOG will strictly be an earnings thing for me. It's been stuck on 100 - 105 for some days. They will meet expectations, but i question their guidance going forward.

I will need to re-evaluate the Ags.

PLAN (tentative): Buy my LEAPS after Dec option expiration. And let it ride... It'll save me time and $ in commissions, while i explore moving to another brokerage and doing some investment reading in the meantime.

Sitting Tight... Info Gathering

After tomorrow should give us a clearer picture (outside a new president coming on board - iʻm politically neutral).

iʻm leaving all my puts in place (since theyʻre all at their lows).

News: AT&T buys a bunch of Cisco "core" routers for 25 major city hubs related to all the wireless traffic itʻs experiencing (iPhone related? maybe, didnʻt see this part of the equation).
-considering what CSCOʻs CEO said which sent all of tech down a few weeks ago, this is good news.

Still bullish to me...
#1 AAPL
#2 FSLR
#3 GOOG
#4 RIMM

just waiting for earnings in January...and MacWorld

Who SHOULD HAVE Won the Heisman (Prior to 2007)

See the site for yourself.
http://cfn.scout.com/2/708452.html

I felt Brennan should have won LAST YEAR. Other guys i think should have won? I pick Vince Young & Marshall Faulk.

Although I didnʻt see them live, I saw them TAKE OVER games. Regarding Colt, he threw 500+ yards on beating BCS conference teams. I saw him with my own eyes. And when we Hawaii followers consider how it was with Tim Chang (like a stock zig-zagging), you appreciate what Colt has been doing(bullish...breakout...). He WONʻT win this year. TOO MANY INTERCEPTIONS this year... based on his record breaking stats last year... if it wasnʻt for that, heʻd be in... No doubt. Imagine, he sat out the 4th quarter of a bunch of games last year. If Coach Jones left him in he would have had 7000 yards & 70 TDs(easy against good teams)!

I have a portion of the article below, itʻs getting mentioned on The Dan Patrick Show (ESPN-radio), interesting article:

By Pete Fiutak | CFN Heisman Central

"It's now become a college football tradition to award the Heisman Trophy, the premier individual prize in all of sports, in between the end of the regular season and the bowls. Unfortunately, the signature player of a given season often times isn't determined until after the bowl game, and as everyone knows, one huge performance on a national stage often means everything in the race.

In the 2007 battle, look at how Arkansas star Darren McFadden went from also-ran to possible front-runner by blowing up against LSU when everyone was watching. Missouri's Chase Daniel went from certain finalist to out of the picture after struggling in the Big 12 Championship loss to Oklahoma. Yes, one big day on the national stage, or one dud, is often the difference between winning and being a footnote.

If the voting was done after the bowl games over the year, who would've won? USC RB Reggie Bush might have been a transcendent superstar in 2005, and he had a whale of a Rose Bowl, but Texas QB Vince Young would've won if the voting had been done after the national title game.

Sometimes the Heisman serves as a motivating factor in a bowl game for the opposing defense, so it's not always cut-and-dry that the winner would be clear after the bowls like it does now. Even so, going back to 1970, when the national title started being awarded after the bowls rather than after the regular season, here are the last 36 Heisman winners and what would've likely happened if the big prize was awarded after the season was actually over.

2006 Troy Smith, QB Ohio State
The Final Three Were ... 1) Smith, 2) Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas, 3) Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame
The Likely Winner After The Bowls Would've Been ... Colt Brennan, QB Hawaii
The Final Three Likely Would've Been ... 1) Brennan, 2) Smith, 3) McFadden
Troy Smith won the Heisman in a landslide, but after completing just four of 14 passes for 35 yards with an interception in the BCS Championship debacle against Florida, the voting would've been wide open. Darren McFadden was fine against Wisconsin, but he wasn't special and his Hogs lost. No. 3 in the voting was Brady Quinn, but his Irish got whacked by LSU in the Sugar Bowl. West Virginia QB Pat White, and not teammate Steve Slaton, who was fourth in the voting, was the star against Georgia Tech in the Gator Bowl, and Mike Hart's Michigan team got crushed by USC in the Rose Bowl. That leaves Colt Brennan, who put up a record-setting season at Hawaii with 58 touchdown passes, 5,549 yards and five rushing scores. He tore apart Arizona State in the Hawaii Bowl throwing for 559 yards and five touchdowns with an interception in the 41-24 win."

SOLD My Lone Bull

Dec300call... sold while i could get something for it (75%profit actually). I honestly thought the market would tank today...it may actually head up big time next tuesday on the FED talk (likely rate cut). iʻm one who has no interest in guessing. iʻm waiting for things to settle after the cut. Then go from there. Bush is doing his best to bail out the sub-prime thing. which stinks for the bears.

I will wait patiently for AAPL at MacWorld and their earnings should blow everyone away. It will be the bull of the year.

Enough financials i will post something on Colt Brennan of the Hawaii Warriors.

Fellow Blogger...Hawaii Fan

See intuitivetraders.blogspot.com
He's has put it all out regarding the smack talk from everywhere against Hawaii Warriors.

If anyone reads my bunch of junk blog, it's apparent that I'm a Hawaii Warrior Fan

It's simple...I'm waiting to say something after the Sugar Bowl.
Then look out all blog sites...I'm calling out all Warrior fans to send bulk YouTube to everyone of the SEC smack talkers.

Until then, I have no freedom to speak my mind...If Hawaii Wins... Just be ready...

Apparently I Missed Another One

Prematurely sold Puts yesterday (RIMM Jan75 & FSLR Dec175)

I didn't even look at the Market today...
I have positions that have taken a beating - hopefully, set for Friday...
I am not buying anything for awhile until my position proves true for bears.

On my lone bull front AAPL, the T-Mobile again free to leave iPhones locked.

I am patiently waiting to get back into AAPL & RIMM on earnings.

Switching Bulls?

It seems as tho the FLY as well as TheStreet.com guys are going nuts over ag.

The Ags that seem plausible:
-MON: leader in seeds & genomics (trading in a nice channel)
-VMI: irrigation... (bouncing off bottom?)
-DE: leader in equipment (wud be nice to test a Fib fan on this)
-ADM: multiple comods & processing for food (really cheap calls/LEAPS)

Mind you Solars are still around. But it seems that Ags outside of equipment has somewhat kept undercover. Going long on these guys and not touching them may be a good idea.

Reading...

it was a tough monday for me. and i couldn't have imagined how bad it would have been had i not stock up on puts at the end of last fridays trading day...

reading a number of financial blogs/sites while on my break.
especially, BESPOKE INVESTMENTS & INDEXUNIVERSE

Bearish sentiment abound... protection against recession is a subject as well.

Technicals show particularly in IWM that though it "pierce" it's support as noted by Tim. Another site mentioned that it rarely trades lower than 76 area. I'm still holding my put@72 (at a loss, hopefully temporary). Mixed but acknowledged downtrend.

I really feel i missed out on the last winter rallies the last 2 years, having not participated in options. it's funny how just holding equities long at this point may have been the way to go (AAPL in particular).

I'm basically waiting on the side til friday... not much posting as well.

SOLD calls

I couldnʻt even hang onto FSLR. i briefly looked into the RIMM puts. but will wait maybe the day before friday.
weirdly, SNCR was up 10+%, iPhone? dunno. just a gap up? weʻll see come friday...

Portfolio A is full of bears... puts:
IWM (broke below 75.9 ala Timʻs chart)
GOOG
FSLR (old purchase & too far out)
SNCR
AKAM (Feb)
FRE (Jan)
DRYS(old purchase & far out)

lone bull: AAPL...(again, old buy & far out)

Iʻll take a break this week. Iʻm tired... "Da Bearsz" (thx SNL)

Sold LOSERS... Keeping Winners

RIMM Calls last week was a bad idea. good thing i bot some puts as well...which opened 100+% the only cause for pause was my leaning bullish at the time. I dig the company tho, and will line things up for itʻs earnings in January.

Not sure if iʻm dumb keeping SNCR. It seemed like it was heading back down. but the candlestick in hindsight plainly shows it has steam to run forward. i await 12/7

FSLR call still kicking. My LONE bull in this market are (is) solars. and a crazy AAPL call that was cheap tho far out if news develops faster than technicals or bucks the marketʻs bearish sentiment.

Portfolio A continues on itʻs downtrend. *sigh* HA! looks like iʻll get a tax return again on capital Losses...
Portfolio B sits doing nothing. Maybe i should at least buy AAV to get some dividends.

Iʻm having to step back a bit to look at things. Iʻm keeping all bearish positions otherwise, as Dec 7 will mark a "day in infamy" for wall street. Iʻm thinking of doing a few things old school and actually learn how to trade the technicals in longer period charts.