Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Technical Bounce

Perfect... if anything I wished i waited to get in on my lone MSFT put today. The market is crazy. To illustrate, GOOG alone had a 50 pt swing. Then afterhours 90? Logic prevailed with AAPL, altho i think the stock will return lower eventually. Fundamentally sound companies will have some fight, but the timing of entry is terrible. They have awesome products coming online, the question is will the rich and more affluent keep spending. Their secret cash cow is the APP store.

Too many things going on. Keep paying your debts... and benefit from cheaper stocks (and homes) in the near future.

Monday, September 29, 2008


My previous post i said i sold a couple puts that recovered most of the cost. it is set to expire soon... so, i took what i could and sold.

The eco stinks. MSFT reports... Vista stinks as it is actually helping Apple sell Macs, XBOX not as good as Wii, iPhone/Blackberrys/future Andriod better than WinCE/Mobile. What else is there? Hmm. The CEO is an idiot and totally has no clue that he is costing his company. They bailed out of there own Ads, $300 million for that thing with Seinfeld.

Anyway, MSFT NOV 20 put. They report in late october. I finally sold my loser VISN.

Wow... my old PUTS are green... Housecleaning

Well, the market stinks for the bulls. but the long-term investor has to be smiling. Quality companies are dirt cheap. The puts that have been losers for have turned green. (about time). I only sold MOT Oct 7 puts. I have no idea when they report earnings, but you can be sure i am all in on that on the bear side. Tho RIMM & AAPL are getting whacked at this point, they along with NOK may very well make MOT worthless on the wireless side.

Man, is APPL cheap. Their forward P/E is now obscenely ridiculous. We can thank Morgan Stanley. The govt should check out MS if they are messing with the market. I mean, isnt it obvious? This just shows me that i should consider buying LEAP calls. By 2011, Apple may very well have a worldwide mobile phone market share of 20%, you heard it hear first. Thats if this world continues (if you know what i mean)

Someone asked if they should buy GLD instead of my pick AUY. Well, i guess the answer is yes.

With all the red in the market... this is a GOOD thing. This should have happened months ago. Like when my portfolio was basically ALL puts. The FED shouldnt have done all this dumb stuff to 'ease' something that required a radical changes. This is an eventuality that had to take place. And thus, i have found no reason to be fully vested in this market. Guys like Tim are banking HUGE coin.

Like what i keep saying... Pay off your debts, because all the $US will one day be frozen. No more loans... so be responsible, dont further your debt!!!

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Like We didnt see this coming... RIMM disappoints, Wall St panics

Well, the proof is out there that RIMM is losing market share to iPhone, but they are now investing on expanding with the flip-pearl. i am not sure how this will turn out, it seems that the trend is toward ʻsliderʻ phones instead with huge screens. but still, at least they were smart enough to create a pearl for a specific segment. So, they are doing something about losing ground to Apple

Wall Street is in panic mode... RIMM missed by a penny!!! and at the time of this post, is down almost 20% in aftermarket trading. A nice contrarian move may be in place here. cheap calls are now to be found. and any good news coming in a few days can make those calls go green, tho not necessarily in the money. so, a slight gap up is likely after an initial sell-off in the morning. My guesstimate is about no longer than 1/2 hour into tomorrows session that RIMM will build a floor and buyers come back in (barring any bad news).

But hey my theory is easy to make with no since i am not ʻactivelyʻ trading... but i am still observing... like what i said in my last post. Pay off your debts. Dont owe anyone anything. And no matter what you might miss in the market, at least you know you are winning by eliminating the bills. In the grand scheme of things you end up with more $$$, since you are losing less.

So, beware... things will continue choppy until the next Prez gets elected. no one knows what to do... the govt is just as confused as anyone else. not good... so, again... pay off your debts.

The rumored laptops look sweet. and the touchpads look much like the touchscreen on the iPhone/iPod Touch. No other Laptop has these abiity. very interesting... they are also rumored to have a nice starting price as well. cheaper than in the past to address the slowing economy. they are basically killing the competition in the U.S.

And they open another Apple store in Hawaii. Waikiki. I have no time to join in the festivities. I like my PowerBook, but I aint no stand in line fanatic. For those of you who do... maybe you can win a free iPhone/iPod/Mac... so maybe it is worth it. but its not for me.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Best Course... Pay Debt...

So now i do have internet. DSL... anyway, looking at how things have been going the last 2 weeks. in fact the last months, my decision to sit out and not keep throwing money at the market has been a wise choice. as an example look at how my fav stock AAPL did... drops to 127... back to 140 in two days... back to 126... common now. i dont have time to follow that.

So, the best course is to pay any debt off. Dont keep giving away your $$$ to credit card companies or banks. Why lose money to the Market and Debt? Pay it off. Its just plain good money management. Obviously, the goverment isnt good at doing it and you can see where we are today... learn from stupidity to follow it.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Gold... Oil...

After my post yesterday regarding oil... well, i still believe in the long term it will go down tho not at the pace we have seen. But what a spike today...

Gold is where things will accumulate momentum. Thus i dumped my stupid most of my VISN. the stock i still believe in, but i failed to set a stop loss long ago. and only now i noticed that it crossed the "definite" dump line. Anyway, i bought some AUY...

AND what i was surprise to find was that i still had a number of long puts in play popping green (i had no idea, just to show how out of the market i was...and i wouldnt doubt they go red tomorrow after this post): MOT, RHT, FXI, S. All of these puts are green... and the earliest expires in October, which only reminds me of my having not kept DUG calls, which would have expired in October too. Anyway, i have enjoyed the lack of stress that comes in managing $$$ in the market. So, its all good...

My Raiders finally won a game. Against the [Kansis City] team i think is now the worst team in the NFL. It all starts with the O-Line. On the college front this basically is why I think Hawaii has struggled...since the O-Line/D-Line injuries they suffered against Florida. That game was not worth it. It will now cost UH having a good season. Mind you they may still make a bowl game, but otherwise it will be a tough year.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Samsung + SNDK, Oil, AAPL, Longs (Drugs)

So did you see this coming? i doubt it... I had one guy tell me he was looking into getting some SNDK calls weeks ago, he usually buys during the week of expiration. If he did and held, man did he hit a lotto.

If you thought oil was done... other developments continue besides the bad eco affecting oil demand. btw, you would think we would have cheaper plane fares and that airlines should get rid of the stupid baggage fees. Another smack at oil includes the American auto industry as Chevy actually has a nice looking Hybrid coming out in late 2010. It kinda looks like an Acura TL. Japanese and Euro cars are some of the best designed vehicles. Its about time the U.S. copies them and get that dumb pride out of the way so that we can stop driving or sharing the roads with these ugly cars. Anyway, check out the Chevy Volt... Oil may very well be cheap(er), when the American Hybrids reach the mass. Of course, OPEC might have something to say about that.

Well, i happen to have been up this morning, and couldnt sleep. Man AAPL actually touched 130!!! awesome... but as i said i have debt to pay and other pressing matters.

CVS, Wallgreens, Longs Drugs, Etc:
Eventually this thing will settle, but this is where the money flows. Despite Medicare/Medicade, and private insurances cutting back, the drug stores still play the perfect middleman. As long as people are kept alive, these stores profit. Think of it this way, you get in the store to buy your drug(s) and then find you need to buy something else that happens to be there too. Before you know it you have a basket or cart full of stuff you ʻmightʻ need, when you really just needed something for your pills for your joints, heart, lungs, or other part(s) of your body... NICE biz model...

Monday, September 15, 2008

LIKE WE DIDNT SEE THIS COMING.... SEPT 15 Shoulda happen months ago.

LEH files for chp 11. Man i tell you i thought this would happen months ago and my portfolio was in full bear mode. Tim must be a billionaire from 2008 alone... LEH was looking for a BSC-like bail out. nope... And i still wish the govt didnt bail out BSC to begin with... cʻmon, no one bails out the individual investor, so why should tax money bail out these chumps? i would have been sitting pretty at this point instead of having my portfolio sideswiped. Alas, thats the govt for you... But some positives are out there and other stuff...

AAPL (cheap)... It is an awesome day for "smart" bottom fishers...
Anyway, i am looking at this another way... I love AAPL going down. AWESOME... this stock is so undervalued. and yet i am still not touching it. i am looking at April 2009 calls & Jan 2010 LEAPS. If AAPL gets below 140... it is a buy... but a scaled buy. The recent bottom was 120 last fall. So, dont be surprised if it doesnt get there, but i doubt it.

Here is the thing with AAPL. Forget iPods and AppleTV. Its all about MACs and iPhones. MACs are gobbling up marketshare and iPhones are beating up all the smartphones and some regular phones as well. RIMM strategists were ingenious by adding a ʻpearlʻ flip phone. that addresses their losing the smartphone battle ground. So, what you have now are the PALM, MOT, NOK, samsungs, LGs of the world getting whacked by RIMM & AAPL. AND the iPhone App Store is bringing in at least 1 million per day at this time for Apple. As they sell more iPhones, that will only go up. And with Gaming being the center of iPod Touch/iPhone you can see how this will exponentially affect the stock positively.

Go ahead and add FXP to the mix... i foresee the next Prez penalizing China... my only stock is VISN. sure i lost 25% thus far on it, but you know what... they will beat earnings... no doubt. The commercial ads in China are just beginning. Capital corruption will only increase from here in China affecting the kids to young adults of China. The old and experiences will be left behind and their wisdom will be ignored. That is the world we live in today... And it will only get worse.

and dont think OPEC will play nice with oil. they can and will cut production, in hopes of having it hover @$100... the hurricanes have affected Gas in north america, but havent reached here in Hawaii. So, it Ike may just be a blip regarding oil. Hope all the those in the Gulf are coping with the difficulties.

Had to put up this post... cant ignore these seismic shifts... unfortunately (or fortunately) i am just watching, being smart, paying off debt, because you know, the govt is tired of bailing out losers (BSC, FNM, FRE)

Tuesday, September 9, 2008


see for yourself... Coach Bill from PATRIOTS... sore loser...


speaking of cry-babies... the rich are crying and the govʻt is bailing them out... first BSC... now FNM/FRE (sept puts would have been better than any lotto)

I shall return... but i have other pressing issues to tend to... this we still know... The U.S. economy stinks even more... oil will keep dropping until a storm actually hits... and something huge that will affect the economy happens in Nov (election). Oh, and my favorite tech company AAPL has new iPods... i dont care about that, its time for some new Macs. They are absolutely gaining marketshare against the PC & mobile phone space, exception would be MP3/MP4 players (where they are dominant) and set top boxes aka APPLE-TV.

I am still watching some things, just focussing on more important stuff, and itʻs a tough time to trade anyway... but i encourage all to check out this disciplined dude... ibankcoin.com/gioblog

plan to be back in your face at an undisclosed time...