Friday, October 31, 2008

Bad position day (for me)... WYNN, HK, PCX

Well, looks like the rally has tamed everything illogical to me.

WYNN is UP... on earnings... like what i said yesterday, "I might regret it" in getting in WYNN. Its Macau (in China) property always bails out WYNN or at least paints a rosy picture for analyst. But it remains that we are in a Global recession. I should have got up early to see if i could have got out of this bad position. Now I have to wait. I was thinking it would open sharply up and fade. Nope... I dont like it... Granted this stock will eventually fall, but it may take a while... If Obama wins the Prez, then i see everything going south... especially casinos.

The point is things that would be affected by the recession are up: consumer/retail, hotels, airlines... totally baffles me.

So while WYNN is up....HK/PCX/Energy down...
So while most tech is down... RIMM is solidly up (they will lose to iPhone/Android)

I am stuck and have to wait for the weekend to clear this up.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

SOLD AAPL CALLS/ HELD HK calls (for now)... UPDATE: WYNN puts

Well, Dec 150 calls @.78... bought @.4 yesterday. Sold... Take that profit. I have an uneasy feeling about tomorrow, especially tech. If the market does shoot up, then there is nothing i can do... Just being content with a nice profit. I am on the lookout for other options. I continue to hold HK. Altho i am thinking of moving the time window farther out. But energy should be back just related to winter alone.

I havent posted any earnings list... its gotten too tedious. There are still opportunities there, but i refuse to get in earnings specific positions unless it is a mover (i.e. AAPL or POT). One that i wish i did get in on was EXPE put, they finally admitted slowing travel. I tried to buy puts on them the last time and lost it all... they basically lied regarding their guidance.

Here is a short list for Friday pre-market: CVX, GG, PGN, WY... as you see mostly energy and gold.

I wait patiently for the next opportunity....

UPDATE (2:13 pm EST)
bought WYNN Nov 45 puts @6.3 ... i totally might regret this move. It is basically a technical move. There is a lot of buying action prior to earnings at the close. AND my hint as to how they will do was EXPE earnings report. Although bookings were up, they refused to give any solid guidance. My guess is that more people go online for deals than ever before. The days of calling a Travel Rep are basically over in booking basic travel... You only go to them for packages. Thus this risky move is based on a possible 'fakeout' and WYNN saying just one wrong thing in their conference call. AGAIN, i might totally regret this move as it will negate much of my gain the past 2 weeks or so.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Nobody Knows anything... But i digress... Oops forgot UUP puts

Well forget what i said about the Pro Bloggers... I was giving them TOO MUCH PRAISE. I will say that Gio told me to 'keep that put.' All this talk about bottom from the bloggers i follow had me rid of my most useful hedge: FXI. This totally stinks...

What time to learn something like this... i bought the calls too early and sold my only real hedge.

OK... WHEW... got that rant out of the way...
I see no reason to position for earnings (thus forget listing them... what a waste of time) when days are like this... seriously. the sell off in the final hour (while i was sleeping from nightshift), was totally a joke. 'Chart swing trader' is not convince of any direction at this point and is sitting out until things clearly go one way. He acknowledges we 'could' be in for a follow through, but nothing has signaled an 'all in' attitude yet.

Having said that this is what i see
today bot: AAPL Dec 150 call @.40 ... bid .37 /last .51
today bot: HK Nov 22.5 call @.45 ... bid .25 bid/last .5
yesterday bought PCX Dec 30 @.15 ... bid .20/ last .15

my lone put was FXI jan 50: a nonstandard issue but much action. i lost out a 20%, altho in the end it was a 630% gain. Gio warned me to keep my lone put. I am crying about not making more... why? anyway...

Things dont always go the way we plan and neither appear as bad OR good. Especially in THIS market. A possible follow through is still in the making. The thing is it may take weeks versus days. So minus my NOV calls, the rest will play out the year end rally. I might even add to it with POT calls if we start sharp in the red tomorrow. How did i not trade for POT? Anyway, any rally sign MUST include POT... (and i aint talking drugs)

Lastly i forgot to buy puts on UUP... what a no brainer... anyway, i will get in somehow, just when... i have no idea, but yesterday would have been the best time to do so.


Sold my FXI put... held MSFT/BYD puts.

Bought HK Nov 22.5 call & AAPL Dec 150 call.

If this rally will carry through the year, these strikes will hit. I missed getting in on POT calls this morning... i wasted time selling FXI.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008


PRO blogger caught this rally... the ones i followed all saw it coming, some more doubtful than others, but at least positioned for it to happen. (using Fibs)
-especially FLY (unsure of his methods)
- and Gio (VIX study/IBD) (diwali... it's just a day, but he bought Monday.) He uses IBD as one of his tools

honorable mention: (he didnt buy, but he didnt lose in adding more puts)

i do look at other blogs once in awhile... but these are the tops in performance.

One more thing... GS said that oil would somehow get back to 150 by years end. They said that before the DOW crashed. We may very well see this pan out if a weaker dollar happens from a rate cut and OPEC cuts production again...

BEAR RALLY... Possibilities...

Tim is saying we are in the midst of a rally that will carry us to the end of the year. Well, i have like 2 calls, one bought yesterday and the other YHOO as a spec for a buy out from someone. I would vote for AAPL to eat them up to guard against GOOG since they now compete in the mobile space. My calls have been waiting for some action and i got them cheap. If Tim is right, it will be easier to trade the rest of this year. But i feel the best direction will come when the next PREZ is picked. I could care less who wins...

I think the GDP this thursday might be the last gasp for the bears to cash in. Thus, i held one FXI put. I am wondering if i should have sold it anyway... but i am NOT a trader. So, jumping full head into puts at the sessions end today in not my DNA nor was my buying calls yesterday(shoulda bought an index call instead of PCX).

So, from my experience the following REALLY SPIKE from alot of buying. So, believe me i am scanning the calls on these top perfomers from their respective sectors
tech/telcom: AAPL, RIMM
internet: GOOG, BIDU
ag: MON, POT
energy: PCX, HK, FSLR.

AND if you want to get in on monthly dividends... HTE, PWE, PVX. They are indeed cheap. for example if you bought HTE which pays out about $.25/share. 1000 shares = guaranteed $250 a month. these are the stocks that i am seriously looking into buying.


SOLD FXI @3.7 bummer. the thing closed @ 6.2 yesterday... (bought @.64, wouldve been a 960% gain)...but letting the other ride.
Sold SNE Nov 20 @ 1.4... bummer too it was 2.25 yesterday. still a 100%+ profit (bought @.55)

Got home from nightshift... shoulda set a trigger sell order on both... i wake up and the rally happens while i am sleeping. can you imagine if i didnt set my alarm to wake up early. but man, same mistakes... argh... i have one call option (PCX) but it is too far out of the money at this point. i should have done a hedge with FXI calls.

In any case my gut feeling to sell yesterday was ignored and i paid the price. if anything a hedge would have been a wise thing being that the eventuality is that the market will without doubt head south by weeks end.

I will only post Wednesday aftermarket. With the FED in play tomorrow i saw no point...

Awaiting Consumer Confidence... Fed tomorrow.

This will be the catalyst to whether its a huge rally or a whimper. The global market was up. I have no idea what the FED rate cut will do for the market. Its a no win situation for the FED. Cut rates and devalue the $US or leave rates and have the market continue on its slide. Dont know.

For now my positions are a hold, altho i did wish i sold SNE puts yesterday with the possibility of buying it cheaper today. I will post Wednesdays Premarket earnings today, and if i have time, the aftermarket stuff as well.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Tuesday Aftermarket... enjoy...

Tuesday aftermarket, get in just before the market closes... or dont. FED talks wednesday... i am waiting on UUP puts

RNT: retails/rents computers/furnture,etc
ACE: insurance
ALGN: 'invisalign' braces for teeth
AMX: latin telecom power
APOL: educational services
ARRS: software: broadband, media, internet
BXP: real estate
CTX: residential construction...
CPHD: Scientific & Technical instruments
CBI: deal with liquified gases/oil & tanks
CMP: Ag chemicals
DRIV: Internet software/services
DENN: Dennys restaurants
XRAY: dental equipment supplier
DWA: 'Dreamworks'
FISV: Biz software & services
FLS: manufacturers of pump/flow equipment
FMC: chemicals
JLL: property management
KSU: rail transportation US & Mexico
LNC: life insurance
MTW: farm/construction machinery
MCK: drug wholesales
NLC: water treatment
NAL: regional bank
RFMD: semiconductor
STM: semiconductor/broadline
SKT: REIT retail
ULTI: internet software/services
URI: rental & leasing services
VPRT: on-line services for small business
WRB: insurance property/casualty
WLT: metals/minerals/coal/nat gas
WTS: sells/distributes filtered water

Bought PCX call... stupid MAR/HOT

Bought PCX Dec 30 call @.15... a cold winter pure spec.

MAR/HOT... you know the one i was crying about missing puts on earnings. well, the eventual thing happened. sold off today. that stinks. i had'em in my sights and failed to buy puts on HOT conference call that caused it to go green last week. pitiful on my part...

That's all Volks... Volkswagon lotto...

VOW.DE aka Volkswagon
Porsche is lifting its stake in Volkswagon (the largest car maker in Europe) to 75% by the end of 2009.

The stock ranges from $325 to $625. It is at $520 as i type this.
Anyway, good companies are still companies despite the economy. And the thinking on Porsche part is will they have enough rich people to buy Porsche? So why not get in on the middle income target in Volkswagon.

These things still happen. Congrats to any trader who got in on this...

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Pre-Market Tuesday... US$ & OIL

In advance of Tuesday earnings reports... enjoy

Premarket Tuesday
ACH: the chart reminds me of the tech bubble charts in 2000
AMED: homehealth/hospice... patient care svc.
ASH: chemicals
BMS: consumer goods/packaging...hitting lows
BMRN: biotech...
BYD: casinos/gaming
BP: produces(exploration/refining) & transports energy
CRS: manufactures/fabrication/distribution specialty metals
CEPH: drug producer
CRDN: industrial sector
CHKP: I.T./software
CEO: chinese oil...
CVG: tech/biz software
ELNK: earthlink
ETR: regional utilities/electric
HMC: Honda... Japan has problems. Good cars tho
MSO: Martha Steward
MLM: general bldg materials... bearish
MAS: lumber/wood... bearish
MOLX: electronics (i.e. SIM cards, internal antenna, etc)... toss up
NETL(4:05pm EST): semiconductor
OXY: oil
PC: panasonic
PCX: coal... hey its getting to winter... Jan 30 calls look like a good spec
RCI: Rogers Communication... Canada AT&T
RCL: cruise line... bearish... is it priced in tho?
STD: banks... in spain/europe/latin america
SAP: enterprise/software
SCHN: steel
SEPR: drug manufacturer
SKM: south Korean telecom
SII: oil/gas
SBIB: regional bank
TASR: Taser... remember them when they were a high flyer?
TIN: Paper products
TPP: oil/gas
EL: Estee Lauder... retail/consumer
IPG: international advertising agency
MHP: McGraw Hills...
UA: is this the bottom? they are gaining mindshare in the pros
X: steel
USG: general bldg materials
VLO: former Cramer fav
VSH: diversified electronics
WDR: investment/brokerage regional firm
WHR: 'whirlpool'

there are a ton of Chinese Pink Sheets... ha... i keep holding my FXI puts

- is it time to buy puts in UUP? maybe... i will wait for wednesday if rate cut happens
- USO calls/DUG puts are starting to look good... thx to OPEC spec, but i would wait for the FED on wednesday

Friday, October 24, 2008

Pre/Aftermarket for Monday, Oct 27... and the weaker dollar


-ACI: coals
-BOH: solid bank...
-EXP: gypsum wall & cement... uh no ones buildings
-FPL: produces electricity via oil, air, nuclear
-HPC: chemical company
-HUM: huge health/benefits plan provider in the U.S.
-IBN: large bank in India
-L: Loews
-PENN: gaming properties
-SLG: Reality
-TXRH: restaurant chain
-TDW: offshore supply services/vessels for offshore energy, etc
-VZ: so, how many customers did they lose because of iPhone

-BWLD: toss up
-CAJ: all the puts are in the money
-CF: fertilizers
-CHH: someone bought exactly 3000 Nov 20 puts today (Friday)
-EWBC: a small bank
-EXEL: biotech company near all time low ($3)
-FIS: processing, transaction outsourcing services for financial companies
-PCL: timber/wood... "timber"... bearish
-VRTX: pharmaceutical
-WMS: gaming/casino machines... bearish of course

-i placed a limit order to buy puts on UUP... dollar is worth nothing. my wife and i have some paper yen at home from our wedding 1 1/2 yr ago. We are holding them for an even better exchange.

-wish i held my Nov 65 put... argh...

Thursday, October 23, 2008


Sold Nov 20 put @1.33, Bought Nov 15 put @.25... not likely but it would be a new low. so, its my spec for the day. Grabbed the profit... For now the street expects them to meet and guide low. But if they miss... the stock will be shot to pieces. Just like Vistas compatibility problems.

I am glad i bought SNE when i did. it is up 100% just today. They report next week.

AAPL of course is fading since earnings report... i am considering selling NOV 65 put... set a sell trigger.

As for MAR/HOT that i cried about yesterday. I cant believe that they held up despite the stink report. It actually shot up today. Whats up with that? Anyway, i now have another opportunity to get in.

Outside of JNPR which is already down, i found nothing interesting in terms of put buying today. There is nothing but Chinese companies (pink sheets) that dominate Fridays pre/aftermarket. So i get to take a break.

Monday though is another long list i will look at tonight.

UPDATE: i did sell my lone AAPL put for a 20% gain. if i held just a few minutes longer it would have been better. the MSFT spec i threw out there really was free as i banked on it with the earlier put i sold. casinos sold off today, and i have no idea why. WYNN reports Oct 30. So, i am hoping for a nice rally on Casinos prior to their horrible report. but then again i thought hotels would sink. it was already priced in. SNE is taking a huge hit in Asia as i type this 1030pm HST. They are revising earnings for the year prior to their report Oct 29.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Missed MAR/HOT

Man i was 'stuck' between deciding which strike to go with... the asks got a little out of hand...

I have no choice but wait for tomorrow if i even have a chance. I will use HOT earnings via MAR puts. My order just missed the bell today otherwise. BUT I REALLY REGRET NOT GETTING IN... its one of the few positions with low risk/high reward deals. The thing is i cant figure out for sure if they report before the open as it says on one site and another says 1030 am. Now i have to get up 3:15 am HST to find out

My AAPL put was one of the few times i was able to go against a spike rather than with it. And as much as i like Apple the company and their fundamentals, i couldnt ignore the stock action. This put is up 50% today as a result of the fade.

The overall market has spoken that no stock is immune to macro-eco momentum. A number of companies beat the street handily with good guidance only to have them ripped. The economy stinks and the earnings season is going just as most of us thought... in the red...

Bought AAPL put... Waiting on HOT/MAR...

Well, AAPL gaps up. I buy a put... Nov 65 put @.40... maybe i should have waited for it to get cheaper. but bought the put based on recent history of stocks post earnings and NOT anything to do with AAPL the company. They are crushing the smartphone competition. If only they would open up to T-Mobile and maybe Verizon, then i think total domination in the U.S. mobile space would be in order.

My other puts are in a hold position... FXI, MSFT, SNE. I would like to add HOT to the mix as well. I may have to wait for the closing bell... I wished i sucked it up and bought that Nov 15 put yesterday @.45 rather than limit order for .40

OOPS... missed listing a bunch of earnings for Wednesday. Relisted...

Well, i must have been half asleep when i posted my list of Wednesday Pre/Aftermarket earnings list. Anyway, today we will see if AAPL will have a strong day or just a spike and fade.

HERE IS THE RE-LISTING. granted the its too late for Pre-Market stuff but interesting to watch nonetheless.


AMGN: sector has been good
AMZN: toss up
BIDU: i would rather buy puts on a spike
CDNS: automation for electronics
CMG: too beat up
CRUS: bearish on their sector, but has it bottomed
CGN: oil/gas
FNF: insurance/financial/insurance
IRBT: nice idea... not enough marketing. HA! only puts available
KNX: transports comods.
LSI: semi sector
NE: oil/gas
NTRI: weight loss
NUVA: healthcare
OSIP: pharaceutical
RRC: oil/gas
SKX: shoes/retail
*SLM: education finance. money loser to me.. LOW RISK PUT(jan 5 put)
TER: semi sector
TEX: farm equipment industry
ALL: are you in 'good hands'?
TMK: life insurance

now i remember why i stopped doing this... this was long.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Possible FAKEOUT... Follow Through will confirm this tomorrow

Well, AAPL sold into earnings. Usually it stays flat day of earnings... Today was a little different. The suspicious buying right after the closing bell added to evidence of a 'fake-out'. The big boys scared the Long buyers into selling... I am not the least bit surprised. I also will not be surprised if AAPL went lower in a few days, even if the general market went up on the possible upcoming added bail out plan.

I have no time to mess with this nonsense. Thus, my meager $$$ went elsewhere... MSFT put (hold), SNE put (bought), HOT (attempted buy). I have moved on to the next opportunity. No regrets... just more experience.

Dissecting the numbers for AAPL has been confusing for some. Especially with the way iPhone is being accounted for. But Steve Jobs special visit on their earnings conference said one thing... iPhone (which is Mac OS X) has gone beyond its sibling products. It accounts for nearly 40% of their revenue or $4.6 Billion. They sold 6.9 M 3G iPhones this Q. Can you imagine if they pull of their goal of 40 M iPhones sold next year. Apple is a monster... They would be even bigger if it had not been for exclusive contracts with AT&T and Orange. Competition from Android & Blackberry Storm will keep Apple from getting lax. But the iPhone is way ahead at this point. And just think, the desktop/laptop portion of their biz keeps going at 30% growth YOY. It is no wonder that AAPL gapped up afterhours.

Know this tho, i will eventually buy puts in anticipation of the Longs selling the stock on a spike.


The plan was to buy puts today. But they opened red... I am still hoping that it opens hard to the low end tomorrow so i can buy cheaper calls. I would be surprised as i said in a previous post if they beat the streets GUIDANCE... they did it last year. In any case, like all holiday seasons, i think AAPL will end higher as the year ends. But i will not jump into any puts... maybe this is a fakeout to get calls holders to sell... if it is then its ok. i have other 'options' to get in on. Besides, AAPL will go down in a few days even if the afterhours end with a gap up. So, there is always another opportunity. Just possibly not as good as it stand here. Was looking at the Jan 160 call & Apr 190 look good to me... too late as i look at the clock. I look forward to their report...
In fact looking at the after-hours prior to earnings there is some bottom buying (4:16 pm EST)

Thus, here are my 'better' selections for my circumstances...

There was unusual put option action in SNE. Its in the red today yet one of the puts fell 60%. Well, i went ahead and bought it.

I am trying to get in on a Nov 15 put. Is the economic situation priced in? Maybe. So, i have a limit order. It should remain cheap enough for me to get in tomorrow. if not then i will kick myself again.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Wednesday Pre-Market/After-Market... And OPEC

I realize it is still nowhere near wednesday. but i figured i'll put a heads up for myself and anyone who is still looking at my sad blog. I will post these despite not being very interested in getting in any of them. But these can all move quickly in either direction.

AMZN: the internet version of Walmart. they might surprise this holiday quarter.
GSK: another pharmaceutical giant
KMB: health care supplies. its a tough biz, alot of competition in one hospital i know very well.

FFIV: networking... basically tech/enterprise.
ALL: insurance and some banking. 'are you in good hands?'
VAR: cancer therapy systems. interesting, there seems to be some option call action.

Thursday is much more interesting to me and a much longer list of big names...

hey, i really thought they were going to do this before it got to the 70s. But cutting production was not at all a surprise.

Selective After-market Monday/Pre & Post-Market Tuesday...

These are not necessarily positions to enter as much as tell signs for certain sectors. I only like AAPL (see note) because its predictable. This time of the year is still following history for the most part. coals pick up this time of the year - winter is a couple months away.

AXP: they never seem to beat.
NFLX: solid offerings. but options are all over the place, i dont play that.
TXN: semi. toss up.

AKS: steel.
MMM & DD: industrial. i have no experience in this sector.
CAT: slowing eco not good
COH: retail. pricey bags. but they do cater to the those with more $
FCX: metals/comods. toss up short term.
LXK: they should be a little worried. i would lean bearish.
OXPS: just ok volume. bearish
PFE, SGP: pharmaceutical giant. i got no clue whats up in this sector.
PUK: retirement plans & insurance. toss up
SY: software infrastructure/IT for enterprise & mobile. bearish
UAUA: gas down good. economy spending stinks. toss up.
USB: glad they are still in business. but i would NOT touch banks
YHOO: i got no clue here. is google helping them or not?

*AAPL: tech/retail. Apple is the lowest risk in terms of predictability. the iPhone numbers will be awesome but its all about guidance. i am set to buy a call on Wednesday morning and hope for a gap up. and will might buy a put prior to earnings... if AAPL surprises with an aggressive guidance i will be shocked, altho they did it last year prior to holiday quarter. Either way, this is the same story at Apples every earnings conference. Then again... i might just avoid the whole thing and stick with Microsoft/Sony/hotel puts.
BRCM: toss up
EW: health medical equipment.
ETFC: investment/broker.
VMW: so beat up... wish i paid attention. it was a strong sell. i missed it.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

SOLD!!! RHT put.... Hoping GOOG guides high...

Sold RHT put @ 2.15... missed selling it earlier for 1000% gain after cost. i bought the thing at .20, i may rebuy this put later on a green day in tech. i decided to sell when i noticed it was up 72% today on unusual buying.

otherwise, regarding tech, i am still holding MSFT put til earnings and may add to it at that point. but i think SNE is weaker fundamentally...

cannot wait to see GOOG earnings report... "please guide higher"... make it easy to on my 'lateness' to add more puts... if not well, my existing puts will be on fire again tomorrow.

Nothing is clear cut... sometimes just plain illogical

The few stocks related to earnings that i looked at a few minutes ago are bucking the the gloom and doom of the economy. And some are just priced into the stock... well, thats what some people think anyway...
SHW (you would think would sink with lack of homes to paint) is up nicely
NOK missed badly but guided ok (claiming the lower end will make up for losses going forward)
BTU is up a good percentage on profits... winter is coming a few months.

logical drops COF, MER, C so far... but lets see where they close...

The interesting sector to me has been airlines... despite the slowing economy, oil dropping has shored up their stock. all of them are in the green.

The big cheese that we all await is GOOG (and to a lesser extent IBM). i am just plain tempted to buy a call to spite everyone. the puts are on fire... in fact i wish i did when i woke up this morning. but i rather take my money elsewhere. i.e. puts in hotels, and a few tech related (SNE, DELL.. and possible strangles SNDK, STX, WDC).

So, its GOOG time... let them set the tone for tech... i hope they do meet earnings and guide well. it makes setting up puts for the losers a whole lot easier.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008


Everything dropped from the opening green. And the street was disappointed in Apple's lack of a lower price point. Granted they do have a laptop starting at $999, but that is last years top line 'white' Macbook, not the new aluminum Macbooks. Look at any October put is was about a 1000% gain. Oh well... it seems like the rumors sites have become a nice way to position for these puts.

Apple implied that their new process for creating the new MacBooks will cut production costs. So, their guidance going forward could actually be impacted with this development. The other unknown is how much $$$ Apple is banking with their App Store for the iPhone & iPod touch. One has no choice but to position for a strangle. An easier proposition is what i am already holding (MSFT puts prior to earnings). And DUG calls were indeed a buy opportunity today.

Another missed opportunity... but the nice thing is there are more in the future.


Well, the rumor that was a MacBook that was <$900 was apparently mixed up with a new display monitor that Apple was releasing. But we wont know for sure until the Apple Event today. Why is this important? It means that Apple may not be positioning itself to gain a significant marketshare, rather continue delivering products that are superior to the competition at the same price points. So, its business as usual

The Market may very well be disappointed in this development. I am tempted to buy puts today in AAPL. The thing is Steve might release something that we had no clue about and blow us away in time for the holiday shoppers.

He may even mention the iPhone numbers as well... in any case it is a tough stock/option to trade.

I remain on the sideline... with thoughts that the rally was indeed, a relief rally. Earnings from a varying sectors point to a slowing economy. The Great Depression stuff was definitely overblown. That might have been the signal to buy the bottom on Friday and sell today on the relief.

Monday, October 13, 2008

The BOUNCE!!! Woulda/Coulda/Shoulda... AAPL

It was so expected, but i thought i would be more of a 500-700, not 1000+ pts. Anyway, my puts remain... And are still profitable. They will stay intact with earnings coming out on a few companies. And until the election, i will leave most of them alone. As for the Oil shorts such as DUG... might this be an opportunity to get back in? Its back at levels found just 6 days ago off from mid 80 high on Friday. Who knows... but i have my eye set on something else...

i still remember that thought of AAPL being in the 80s: "This is sooo undervalued." This was my only pick on the Long side, which i didnt execute. I was out doing 'volunteer' work this past week and didnt do a thing about my portfolio. I surely should have bought this thing under 90. The calls were so dirt cheap... Oh well... I was waiting for earnings next week anyway, but tomorrows MacBook event might send these calls out of my reach...

Going back to work today after a nice break for some 'more important things'. So, all is well...

Friday, October 10, 2008

APPL Power... Saves NASDAQ...

Well, like what i said in a previous post, the buyers are lining up for QUALITY STOCKS... and the combination of hype regarding new MacBooks at lower price points bodes well for Apple's stock. It shows that the company is prepared to deal with the bad times in the near future if not at present. But wow... dont you wish you bought AAPL when it was 82+ just a few days ago?

I am looking closer at my puts. I am unsure if the Market has actually touched bottom. AAPL lives in its own space at times related to the general market or even the rest of tech (everything else can go green and AAPL goes red, today was the opposite). It still has a growth story. Any other stocks out there that have similar potential as AAPL are hard to find. So, fill me in if you hear of them. Anyway, i await their earnings Oct 21. At that time i will decide what to do.

More Red (2 hr 20 min to closing bell). AAPL holding its own on quality or hyped MacBooks

Still falling. Someone noted we needed 5 more days of triple digit falls to bottom out. I think it might take until the election to bottom out myself IMHO. Well, my puts are still on fire... i wonder how bad my 401K/403b are... Anyway, its not like i will see any of this money any time soon.

MacBook/MacBook Pro announcement this coming tuesday is bolstering the stock. It seems their is somewhat of a flight to quality as well. The rich can still afford to buy Apple goods. And with the prospect of Apple offering an initial MacBook price point of $800 is strategically the correct move. They actually announced that margins will be lowered with the next product cycle. But my guestimate is that components will actually get cheaper out of oversupply and the slowing economy in general. So, in the whole big picture of things... Apple is a money making machine. Outside of the iPod/MP3 space, they are nowhere near in saturating the worldwide PC/Laptop/Smartphone space. There is a distinct shift happening. Apple itself looks stable, but i still venture to say that their huge numbers in Laptop/iPhone sales will not prevent the stock from taking a hit related to their usual earnings guidance (or 'underguidance')...

I have posted selected stock listings again on the main screen... this past week has been more of shooting fish in barrel for the bears, while bulls are nowhere to be found except in the handful of quality stocks with incredible growth prospects against the slowing economy (i.e. AAPL).

Thursday, October 9, 2008


As unfortunate as the market is directional wise. My sticking to my guns (wishing i added more) on puts has surprised me again. My lowly acct has doubled in a matter of 4 days. And i only performed 2 trades. Sold a chunk of VISN & bought MSFT put... and earnings has even gotten here yet. That is where i thought the DOW would near 8500. Never would i thought to have seen this coming.

So, i was surprised to find that not doing anything has doubled my portfolio. It is scary to figure out how much lower this market is going to go down. Because no firm bottom has been reached. I think a bounce back of course is in order tomorrow. But what a surprise to see how much panic is on the Street.

Specific stocks i have kept my eye on...
FXI (puts) China has spent so much on their infrastructure and the Olympics. They have inflation problems. My old puts are on fire for now. I think it would be prudent to sell this thing off prior to Nov 4 election.
AAPL (watch) has held steady. Altho it is probably a day-traders dream (and nightmare). They have MacBook buzz coming around and a some numbers on iPhone that will blow everyone away
RIMM (watch) held steady, but quality issues are turning up with their new Blackberry Storm, bad time to mess up
MSFT (puts) has already picked a direction from its last earnings. Things arent getting any better.
RHT (puts) is back down again. Fundamentals stink. Redistribution of Linux hasnt guaranteed $. Vista has actually pushed Windows-based coorporations into companies like Red Hat. So, we shall see what MSFT says about the matter.
AUY (stock)what a waste. i should have sold this thing and held it to cash to participate in more puts.
VISN (2 shares ha!) so much for a solid future, Asia has joined the U.S. crisis.

And so as it goes... i got to do nothing related to making money today (its all about being out in 'field'), and i still made money. cool deal. and to top it off someone treated my wife and i to lunch yesterday and today...

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Emergency Rate Cut. Sorry Ben, shoulda announced this right after your lecture (RIMM news too)

Stocks will stabilize with this news, but the thing is just another band-aid. The earnings reports coming out show how bad the economy will be in the months or years to come. A true Bear Market has been in place for awhile.

They finally released their touchscreen phone called Blackberry Storm. They are advertising it as a phone that will take the world by 'Storm', lame, but i get the point. It surely is better than those Windows Sienfeld commercials. The thing that stinks is that its exclusively with Verizon. So its good for the VZ crowd. I have T-Mobile and will soon be stuck with Android as my only 'touchscreen' option. Competition is indeed good, and they have a built in landscape mode for SMS/Email that Apple should quickly integrate, now that RIMM is 'pushing Apples buttons' (pun intended). The Blackberry Storm is noticably fatter than the iPhone and has nowhere near the 3rd party software (or developer community) that is behind the App Store. Still, at least they are not giving up. This should indeed hold down the fort for RIMM.

The question is will Apple exercise its 'Multitouch' patents? If they do, look out... They already learned a hard lesson with MSFT using a clause in a contract that allowed them to produce Windows. So, is Apple able to exercise their intellectual property, when there were other Touchscreens prior to them releasing an iPhone? We shall see.

In either case RIMM at least stays respectable. Releasing 'Storm' will save their stock (and VZ) in the short-term going forward. The iPhone is just in a different class of smartphones. Its an actual hand computer running Mac OS X. And it shows... but consumers often want what the need and have no desire to have all the options afforded them via the iPhone. You can bet that the storm will be given the death name 'iPhone-killer'. RIMMs end to end services have proved for the most part more reliable (despite a few system failures this year) than AT&T. Interesting Smartphone battles, now that Apple has some competition.

Monday, October 6, 2008


Less than 10K!!! Tim must be dancing in the streets if not on a bull...I had to post today... My option positions are so tiny... but they are banking 100%+ (puts in RHT, MSFT, FXI. my lone stock which i forgot to sell was AUY. and so GLD as a choice over AUY a month ago would have been better. but hey... no sense crying over that. i am already lost for the year.

As for Apple. They seem to have sold their 10M iPhone wayyyy ahead of expectation (10M in 2008 was the stated goal). And so with their earnings announcement soon (i think Apple has announced plans to conduct a conference call to discuss financial results of its fourth fiscal quarter on Tuesday, October 21, 2008 at 2pm PT/5pm ET.). it will be interesting to watch... for one thing no one expected Apple to have possibly sold 7M this Q (their 4th Q). The high estimate was 5M. iPhone is the #1 Smartphone in the U.S. However, the whole Macro/Micro-eco has surely made AAPL dirt cheap as it actually dipped to 87 today... and rallied strong to finish green today...

Patience is necessary... my plan short term... keep all my puts (RHT, MSFT, FXI) and hedge with AAPL calls around earnings. The plan is buy a call and put prior to earnings... after the last earnings, where AAPL gave poor guidance, the stock opened down huge only to be barely in the red. So, a put prior to earnings and buying a call at the open would have netted 500% or in one case .01 option turned into 1.0... in real money $1 to $100. But who knows... AAPL has announced good guidance for 1Q last year. Thus, having one call prior to earnings could work out as well. We'll see what is going on at the time... it will be a decision made based on varying factors.

And the newest MacBooks apparently are rumored to have a air craft quality aluminum production process that in the PC world is totally revolutionary. In which they take a block of aluminum and mold it into a laptop - interesting, but still a rumor. What we do know is what the CFO stated at last Q earnings: 'Apple's competitors won't be able to match' for some time to come.' hmm. can't wait. my wife needs to dump her piece of junk Dell. btw, all windows based PCs not investing in Linux are doomed. Ironically, Macs are the fastest machines to run Windows... who woulda thunk it...