Thursday, July 31, 2008

August 1 after market/August 4 pre-... *sigh* enjoy...

August 1st aftermarket:
-CEGE: biotech.

that was easy...

August 4 pre-market:
-EYE: clever optic ticker. interesting options
-BBD: brazilian bank...
*CMED: china & medical... scary... but its all about the chart
-CTB: tires...
-DISH: bullish option buying today
-HBC: HSBC bank related
-HUM: more health/medical
-ICE: go check Gio site. a common ticker he trades
-GAS: natural gas... after winter, a definite put
*SBAC: they operate some of the wireless towers ur mobile phone rely on in the US, Puerto Rico & Virgin Islands. VERY compelling Long. Look at the chart... the fundamentals do coincide. This is definitely a long play with a breakout due. it got blasted during the dot-com and 9/11. It has fought back gradually. it deserves its own write up. but i got other stuff to do

With that i will go do that other stuff now...

Didnt I Tell You it would be a Bear day... Still I Wait... CONGRATS GIO!

You can check my past post... I knew today was a bear day...

Yet it was Just a horrible day... because i went all in on MOT/EXPE...

I ignored the best chart out there: VISN.
If u bought calls on them congrats to you...
It seems as tho VISN calls was technically a better play than MOT puts.

What is interesting is that oil lost ground today... profit taking or people closing out there losers. i for one sold off my USO yesterday, when it was wiser to hold tight. historically oil does go down a bit around this time... Thankfully i still have DUG sitting happy to be back. Kinda wish i bought the DUG dip.

Congrats to Gio. Who i actually just got off the phone with... He is on Flys site. I noticed that Gio has outperformed some who have been doing this way longer than him. His contrarian set ups this week have worked out with precision. What is funny about Gio compared to the rest on the site is he (like myself), never swear. So Gio is family friendly...

Anyway, he encouraged me to continue posting them earnings plays for all of you, even tho i missed on some of those.

But in regards to any heavy trading... I Wait...

Well Guys - Nice Knowing You... Possibly No Post From Me For Awhile

Today I will Get Blasted... both MOT & EXPE posted profits... i am shocked... floored.
The street was surprised MOT held up... especially in their handsets

I dont know how much of my portfolio i will even have after today...

I went heavy on the put side with no coverage on the call side... HARD LESSON LEARNED...
The only good thing was having options in October versus all August...
(a no winner - the call side didnt even strike gold... bad all around for options)

I can list a number of mistakes in the past 3 weeks...
-Missed ʻputingʻ a position in MAR earnings(b/cz i forgot)
-Distracted w/ GOOG earnings (so MSFT puts, i knew it was there)
-Didnt position for AAPL low ball guidance (hello? 7 of the last 8 Q)
-Wasnt aggressive enough on HOT earnings (distracted by AAPL/USO)

So as u see, i add yet a fatal error to my managing...
I wont even bother looking at the charts... blood bath...

I am done folks for awhile... If you have any long term plays send them... here...

Mother Market Taketh Today...

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Bought MOT/EXPE puts

before i get into it. Oil supplies surprised me... Did the oil people fix the numbers? Who knows... Did the SEC know those numbers... imagine shorting everything today that was green yesterday!!!

MOT: oct7puts@.50 & aug7puts@.32

EXPE: aug17.5put@.55

Both charts had some suspicious buying IMHO. The fundamentals are so messed up i dont think these will stand. They seem to have followed OMX pattern yesterday.

The one thing that could permanently put my portfolio out of commission is some sort of buy out talk of MOT. They just reorganized their business units and CSCO or Ericsson could buy that piece, otherwise... they just have NO response to the iPhone/Blackberry battle. Its over... sad when u think how the RAZR was well ahead of its competitors. The didnt spend enough on R&D to stay ahead.

EXPE was more of a spec to me. It is obvious that they would have less tickets to sell and tighter margins. The airlines prefer that we use Orbitz as they get a piece of the action that way. Maybe i should have bought a PCLN put as well...

Tomorrow looks to be a huge bear of a day... they didnt have to wait for Friday after all.

Weird Trading Pattern For MOT... Fake Rally IMHO

Well, i am expected bad numbers from MOT tomorrow. This and the fact that Oil spiked today will weigh on the market in general. So, i dont believe this rally at all. It was similar with OMX yesterday. This is just giving me cheaper puts...

It was a waste of time for me to add to my shorting of oil yesterday... i already had it hedged with an October option, i didnt need to add an august option. i learned with my wallet...

Oil spike!!!

Yeehaw... bring my puts some money!!!

July 31 Pre-Market

ABX: gold baby
CCC: carbon, volume off what i remember when it was hot
CBS: television...
CEG: energy supplier. Electricity & regulated gas
CVS: drug retailer... solid call
EK: does kodak matter anymore?
*EXPE: travel was tough... put please
FPL: electricity provider
FTE: french telecom
GG: gold
IP: paper
K: cereal... yawn
MRO: oil/gas exploration refining
MA: lotto chip?
*MOT: they love *sarcasm* the iPhone/Blackberry... put please
NMX: nymex! i used to own shares @ the IPO
PTEN: oil/nat gas north america
PCCC: sells PCs...
TEF: spain, europe, latin america telecom
TSCM: ha!!!
TYC: security/fire alarm and bunch of stuff
WYN: do i really want to do hotels again? put if i do

I think MOT prospects are extremely poor at this point... worst than WYN & EXPE. CVS is the only bull play i would consider. i think these positions are better than my previous post on SFLY & SBUX.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Economic Numbers this week... go with the likely trend

The rest of the week has a whole bunch of potential bearish numbers, but with Oil sinking, the bulls have come to play.

Wednesday: likely a bullish day!
-Oil inventory (1035 am)...

Thursday: things could get choppy
-GDP (pre-market)
-jobless claims (pre-market)

Friday: bears could be back with vengence!
-Unemployment (pre-market)
-Auto sales (pre-market)
-Truck sales (pre-market) why they list seperately, who knows.
-Constructions spending (10 am)

Specifics... COH, HOT, OMX, SBUX, SFLY, USO...

Ok. for now my rant on quitting just venting as OMX did in fact crash. my initial screen showed otherwise.

Now, regarding a few positions:
-USO: will likely drop yet again once the crude numbers are out.
-SFLY: my wife uses Kodak Ofoto. I prefer ʻMyPublisherʻ. So ITM puts...
-SBUX: they have been aggressive in cost cutting, so the stock will go with the general market trend INHO.

I think V will do well on guidance, but remember, they have less growth potential than MA.

COH was good on theory, but my execution stunk. I was fortunate to get back what I did. I should have sold when it showed pre-market that it probably wasnt going to drop like a rock. HOT was just a bad idea, the reflex bounce imminent and I ignored that fact.

July 30 After Market

This list is way shorter than today
-CNQR: huge action. ave volume 700K, today 6 million from partial buyout
-DRE: real estate
-FSLR: are we in midrally form?
-(pre-market) GRMN: worth watching
*MRT: no options, but worth a short. overpriced steak
-MUR: oil
-OII: offshore oil/gas
-PRU: prudential insurance, finance
*O: commercial real estate
-SCRX: pharmaceutical
*SFLY: who uses shutterfly? put please...
-SWN: oil/nat gas in US
-SBUX: strangle please... maybe Jan calls/aug puts
-SPN: drilling for Nat gas/oil
-SYMC: the computer virus mafia
-TECO: sells electricity
-TSO: hmm toss up.
-V: better than AXP, that for sure
-DIS: toss up
-WILL: oil

i am partial to buying puts on SFLY and a SBUX strangle. I am unsure of V (a former fave of mine). Maybe play off of them with MA. The last time around V missed and MA beat. With the Olympics ahead of us, who knows.

I am this close (*...*) to quitting...

OMX is having a bull aftermarket. Reading the earnings report... the common word used was ʻlossʻ and ʻdecreaseʻ. this is so mental... this sector is getting whacked and yet the stock moves up. illogical... i will go hide in a cave and pretend the market doesnt exist.

anyway, tmrw is another trading day - and the bulls have devaluating oil as leverage. thus my DUG oct call & short window USO Aug put, which i plan to sell quickly... alas, my only choice is to ride oil down long term. the choppy stuff has knocked my portfolio to shreds.


Session hasnt ended but i got out before it got even worse.

COH sep25puts 17% loss
pending HOT put

OMX aug12.5put
USO aug99put


I chose to buy puts on COH over SNE... wrong... the only saving grace is that COH is not a high flying stock. if it was, my portfolio would be in the poor house.

I knew i had to be very selective. My only position in the green today is DUG. Otherwise, i am getting blasted yet again. i am waiting for consumer confidence index before going back to sleep...

its a blood bath for me... not the market thus far.
the bulls are back in force. look at X. on fire... most of my scans are bullish. consumer confidence actually rose today. so i get blasted once more.

update: back to sleep... btw, i am physically sick (on antibiotics).

Monday, July 28, 2008

Narrowing List

Well, the July 29 earnings after market list is long.
So basically i am looking at fundamentals of the ones i picked out as somewhat low risk rather than high return. I am looking at a few charts

BWLD attempting to get over the 50 MA. Me think not. Ok maybe a strangle. the open hammer is somewhat bullish, but its all about guidance. I think people will in fact eat out even cheaper if not eat at home

OfficeMax. They have been in a world of hurt for some time The worst is not over

Real Estate: CTX, JLL, LFG. They all have similar patterns and are near their all time lows. The fact that JLL is more global in its assets has kept its value up although percentage wise it has fallen like the rest in its sector. There are some option deals that are dirt cheap.
CTX 12.5 puts @ aug/sept/oct u get to choose your risk
LFG 15 puts @ aug/sept (.45?)/dec
JLL is at a premium. and its global portfolio buffers downside losses from US properties.

July 29 after market... long list...

July 29 After-Market:
*BWLD: i say PUTs!!! people will eat more at home/Costco microwave food
-BEXP: oil/nat gas
*CTX: family home builder... another PUT please....
-CEPH: drug co., sector been beating the street
-CTV: communication networks
-CVA: waste conversion to energy services in USA, Europe, Asia
-DENN: i dont eat here, but i have a friend named Denny.
-XRAY: dental related.
-DBTK: data protection recovery, especially during natural disasters
-DWA: i think they made some coin. kung fu panda...
-EQ: internet, satellite, wireless data provider
-ERTS: i think they made some coin on violent games
-EFII: ink...
-EOG: crude oil, nat gas exploration, production & marketing
-FISV: IT and e-commerce solutions
-HBI: Hanes... you know under there... oh, underwear.
-HIW: real estate, i think JLL/LFG have better puts
*HTCH: disk drive production. puts please, caution low volume.
-IDTI: semiconductor
*JLL: real estate... lots of put buying
*LFG: real estate title related. stock is $15, 52 wk hi was $79. mucho put volume
-LNC: insurance/investment management like Prudential.
*OMX: office max. PUTS!!!
-OSG: shipping like DRYS!
-MALL: they sell PCs. known as "PC-Mall". toss up... they could beat bad expectations
-PRAA: sounds like they are COLLECTION SERVICE for default loans, etc. yikes!
-RFMD: designs/builds radio frequency related for mobile communication/data
-SIMO: Fabless semiconductor shop, not well known, but option liquidity good
-SLW: silver production from silver purchased from GG.
-STAR: software, hardware, services for multimedia on mobile operators

i am biased towards buying puts in real estate and restaurants

There you go...

COH puts @ Sept25 & Aug20.
HOT put reentry @ Sep30.

Thats all folks. mind you i could lose it all tomorrow...


HOT aug30puts @.40: 20% loss, but added up to $40 loss.
- the funny thing is that HOT has no conviction in either direction at this time. so this thing might have been profitable in the end.
MAR aug25puts @.80: whew squeezed a 15% gain

I am looking at COH, VISN & USO action. I NOW want oil to nose dive as i am out of my hotel positions...

Sunday, July 27, 2008

Dollar Bubble?

i am one to not worry over this stuff. its just interesting. i am doing my job to pay off debt and get myself in a position to settle matters financially and not overstretch my budget.

anyway, someone is making and someone is losing money all the time. the key is to make sure that the latter isnt me (anymore).

July 28 After-Market & July 29 Pre-Market

July 28 After Market:
-AMGN: options reasonable
-CBAK: china spec
-PPD: i actually have used them... boring stock
-RCII: hey, people renting furniture. hmm.
-(pre market)SOHU: too late to buy, but interesting to watch
-MOS: toss up. Ags benefit from oil run up may be over
-(pre market) VZ: strong put bias...

July 29 Pre-Market:
-ANR: BTU was the gauge, may end flat.
-CLR: crude oil/nat gas in mid west USA
*COH: buy a put here...
*ELNK: i am shocked they are still around... maybe a put(cheap!)
-HERO: oil down, but Prez says do more offshore drilling
-NOV: oil parts production related
-NCR: boring but essential automated stuff like ATMs
-RCI: basically a monopoly wireless carrier in Canada, btw, they sell iPhones
-RTI: titanium metals.
-MHP: education stuff boring. but alot of call volume last week
-VLO: how low can this go? bottom found?
*WMI: waste collection...they will never go out of business(cheap calls)

*I personally view as low risk when picking a direction. So basically at the end of Monday, I may buy puts in COH & ELNK, and maybe calls on WMI. Hope i dont get too distracted... again... COH, ELNK, WMI, but if i had to pick one its COH strangle with a strong put bias.


This thing has gotten alot of attention from multiple bloggers. The chart is unmistakable. And with the Olympics ahead of us, this seems like it has legs...

The other side of this is that once the Olympics is done, then what... dunno. But China has passed the US in internet viewing, so the AD sellers are frothing at the mouth, thus VISN has potential upside from indirect association... Its all about ADS and I see VISN doing stuff on the internet as well - my speculation...

The thing is that the options are cheap... The Jan22.5call is <3.0. Considering it being months out which alleviates risk, that is cheap... And i plan to buy depending on the momentum... and on what happens to dumb positions in MAR/HOT...

I will be watching carefully to see what happens to MAR/HOT. I really wanted to exit these positions as I am a bit uneasy here. The swings have come and apparently the short side may be done for now (which i am stuck in). The fundamentals are horrible and it seems as though shorting the Vegas players was the way to go... They will have tons of empty time-shares for months maybe years to come.

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Pondering... Confusion continues...

My friends and I had dinner with this kid from Tahiti last night. Who speaks french... a proper Tahitian. And today we are supposed to see another ʻkidʻ who is going back to NY monday. Why do i mention this? because i am tired of trying to figure out a direction... and need the time away... the market in just plain confused where to go. Long term down, but for now its all *??????*

I have nailed some picks but have failed to go full bore on them. I could have easily increased my portfolio x5 on those picks within the last 3 weeks. I worry about my current short positions that i am finally trying to be aggressive, however, no sell off occurred in my HOT/MAR, a temporary bottom here? Early yesterday, MAR tried to break strong to green but found a firm spot over the previous close. HOT closed just below the previous close... The buyers kept coming trouble is possible. My hope is that it only allows more shorts to come in. The worse case scenerio is a huge squeeze on monday with no eco news on Monday. Tuesday involves consumer confidence, so a definite bear day...

I have a long short(oxymoron) on oil, DUG option calls. However, ... Energy, especially oil related might have found a temporary bottom here... but if another crash happens i figured i would pick up this hedge... The thing is i want oil/energy up to knock HOT/MAR back down to where they belong. The long trend in oil has been established until the new Prez is picked.

Friday, July 25, 2008

Hats Off to another potential pick (GD)

Tim again has an interesting pick: General Dynamics
Tim is basing this completely on the chart. But what i find interesting is the fundamentals that could potentially go with it.
If Obama is prez (Democrat), u better believe combat/weapons producers will be in a panic. And yet the put options listed are DIRT CHEAP! If it crashes anytime before Obama gets in can you imagine what happens then?

The new prez gets voted in late November. Thus, this is one of those you leave alone and maybe check out once a week

60 put
Jan09 bid/ask @ .35/.40
Feb09 bid/ask @ .45/,60
Jan10 bid/ask @ 2.0/2.35

Tim has nailed so many "what stock is that..." securities in a small window. But this is one example of a potentially huge payout much like shorting housing market (which i bought in the fall of 2006, and got out before the actual housing crisis, but we all saw it coming.)

Competitors/Related securities: LMT, NOC,
Less related: RTM, BA

Back to watching grass grow a.k.a HOT/MAR bulls & bears battling it out.


Sleep Deprivation... HMC, HOT/MAR, USO/DUG

Sold my HMC calls @ MEAGER profit this a.m. It sold off quickly...

And now i am eyeing out my existing positions... namely HOT/MAR. It has not been a fun morning at all.

What is interesting is watching USO down AND DUG down. Whats going on here? I placed a limit order on a DUG Oct40call. This is TOO weird $oil/barrel <$123 at the time of this post and DUG is down. profit taking? i dont know. mixed messages as always are being planted by both sides. Someone actually mentioned Oil stabilizing from here. Yet the possibility of a rate increase by the FED is what will prevent oil from heading higher. Of course, threat of hurricanes/civil unrest to oil fields are the lotto for oil bulls. Its all speculation.

OK back to my painfully watching HOT/MAR.

July 25 After-Market/ July 28 Pre-Market

July 25 After Market:
hmm. no definite times on any interesting securities. i already positioned for the pre-market July 25 with HMC calls. They beat earnings but i am unsure of how guidance and the overall market will affect Honda. For me, It was a call interest spec and the fact that Toyota refuses to increase quantities of their efficient cars. Thus, Honda civics/accord hybrids have taken up the slack.

July 28 Pre Market considerations
-MOS: trendline around 118 to 120. if it falls below, it may be in a solid short/put. maybe a strangle
-VZ: competition is tough...

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Averting Disaster Never Ends

OK, so yesterday i tried to set up LONG on AAPL, and bought puts on USO. My timing was bad. However, waking up 3 a.m. in this case was a great idea. should have set a tight stop on AAPL, but with my past history of plugging in wrong data i woke up, saw my AAPL call -5% and sold it -10%. I escaped USO bouncing upward with a minute $30 profit.

Props to Chart Swinger, his technical analysis tipped me towards getting out of USO. My gut feeling was the same but i had no logic behind it. AAPL call exit was strictly on my 10% stop

Had i been patient to open strong positions with HOT puts i would have more than doubled my entire portfolio.
Obviously didnt happen, yet i re-entered with a strong bear/put position on MAR & HOT with the hopes that WYNN would fall afterhours (which it did somewhat). The key was for WYNN to show that the U.S. economy stinks... No one needs to be a genius to see that.

Of course, because of this position i sacrificed a position in WDC puts which will hit big tomorrow, but will have an effect on the market as whole anyway, so i still benefit

My worry is that some may view HOT/MAR as bouncing off a temporary bottom (both are still above their 52 week lows last week) or view the fall in oil as precipitating a floor for all securities affected. The fact that $oil/barrel jumped back to >$126 ensures a short window on bear handling the hotel/visitor industry. The credit crisis is being manipulated by the govt. So, oil is an essential component to whack back at the hotel sector.

We shall see if my strong position was a disastrous one. I have no interest in looking at any other securities at this time... Just protecting what is left... I am disappointed that i nailed the fundamentals, but my execution failed me once more.

Re-entry... I could lose it all...

So, if WYNN blows through earnings... my renewed HOT and now MAR will be blown to zero... i still think hotels stink... lipstick, earings, a whatever else aint making their fundamentals any better...

So, bought
HOT aug30puts
MAR aug25puts (a winner and loser in my past)
Update, bought HMC aug35calls

I have very little to cash... maybe i wont have anything once this day is over.
btw, Oil will be bouncing up... glad i was able to sell USO early in the session.

Failed Expectations... SOLD: HOT, APPL, USO

I did nail HOT... but my gain was somewhat slashed by my other positions. The best put would have been Aug40puts or MAR aug27.5puts... all in that is... either way i think HOT/MAR will continue lower.

-EMC aug15call... no way i was keeping this...
-HOT aug35puts... it didnt stay down, so i got out (too soon as a follow through likely happens tomorrow)
-AAPL sept175call was a bad idea, capital that should have went to HOT puts. i had a small profit but ended about 10% loss
-USO aug100puts was a good idea. yet capital going to HOT puts wudv been way better. but there is a possibility a small rally happens.

Radioshack started higher, hmm nice put entry.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

July 24th After-Market possible positions: And July 25 Pre-Market...

*AVID: let me tell you they WILL fall. They are being undercut by Apples Software. Look at their long term chart and you see a definite correlation between Apple buying Movie related software from then Macromedia and the erosion of AVID. The option premiums are affordable. Note the sept12.5put interest/volume.
-BMY: drug companies been handily beating the street, it is possible here too.
-LLY: another drug company
-KMB: hygiene company.
*RSH: they are trying to replicate the Apple Store experience. ahem, problem is they sell a bunch of junk.
-RMBS: they were a headlining firm. and sued everyone too. toss up...
*SIRF: CHEAP strangle...
-WDC: hard drive prices keep going down, not sure if they provide drives for laptops. that is key, otherwise a definite short/put
-WYNN: Mr Wynn announced ahead of time, buying back more shares, and claiming to provide more jobs to fill his newest Casino. He said all the right things to boast the stock. But i heard that Vegas has left alot of people unemployed and a bunch of people are in foreclosure. Toss up... thus i prefer HOT/MAR.

There are other notables reporting July 24 pre-market, but its obviously too late if you do options. That being the case here are some positions for July 25 pre-market. Obviously have to be bought before July 24th session closes

*HMC: Honda hybrids kicking butt. notice the strong option call bias
-IFX: They are used to interface high speed data, especially supercomputers
-NFLX: They will do well, cheaper than DVDs and the Movies, recession friendly.

I placed an asterik(*) on what seems like lower risk.
Depending on HOT, i will refocus on some of these positions.

After-Market Winners... QCOM, AMZN...

My set up was for a definite trend. I missed entering QCOM/AMZN, but i was too unsure of the risk.

QCOM really blasted off (18% gain!) once word came out that they settled with NOK.
AMZN wasnt really a surprise, i prefer shopping there too if it doesnt involve clothes

The thing is these good earnings set up another day for a rally especially in tech. So it affirms my option call in AAPL, who i believe is worth $200.

USO falling is such a sure trend...

HOT is my spec... 2 weeks ago the hotels tanked. nothings changed except for oil falling, credit crisis continues. but we will see, maybe i lose my puts to an adjusted guidance based on projections oil dropping.

My next post includes tomorrows (July 24) after-market.

Added HOT puts.... Position Summary

(3:44 p.m. EST) HOT aug35puts@.89: my last position i really wanted to snag... will find out how it goes tomorrow

My other positions bought today are small:
AAPL: sept175call@5.7 (12% gain) hope this niche rally continues
USO: aug100put@4.1 (17% gain) riding it down.

RHT: jan12.5put (-25% )
YHOO: jan32.5call/aug15puts (worthless strangle)
SNDK: aug22.5call (basically worthless from strangle)
JBLU: aug5call (small 83% gain)
EMC: aug15call (small 155% gain)

JBLU: dec5put@1.15 (about 12% loss)
EMC: sep12put@.36 (about 50% loss)
ETFC: sept4put@.75 (breakeven) tried to cancel trade, shoulda been a profit

CASH: 15% of portfolio...

significant after market moves were generally split. if not uneventful

Bought... Await HOT at sessions end...

(9:34 a.m.EST)AAPL sept175call@5.7 wish i bought more. this is the early stage of a rally.
(10:07 a.m.EST)USO aug100put@4.1 wish this went to AAPL, but yet oil is in the confirmed decline. mind you i wouldnt be surprised if we hit resistance. yet my gut says US oil inventories will be unusually high. depressing oil further.

I await my lone bear play: HOT... it keeps moving upward, cheaper puts? or bear trap?

Bull Rally... Specific Bear...

So, as Oil is dropping like a rock, it is a good time to go long on any leader that benefits from an oil drop.

Bull/calls: Airlines, Tech (namely AAPL)
Bears/puts: USO or DUG calls, specific Hotel (namely HOT)

-AAPL will be in rally mode for some time. Call A.S.A.P.
-USO will drop as long as there is no disruption in the middle east/hurricanes.
-HOT will drop, but i will lower my risk with a longer put into November. Patience, for now it is in rally mode...i will fire against this with some puts but not as strong i would have a few days ago

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Look Out Its a Hurricane... oh wait... yup it is...

Dolly... she cant make up her mind. But the Bears are probably happy as are those long energy. Any hurricane will cancel out an oversupply inventory report tomorrow. if the supply is less than expected look out for a spike again.

Be Careful With Oil... Potential Earnings plays... AFTER-MARKET July 23.

Inventory report tomorrow. And it seems that the supply on average keeps increasing thereby dropping the value of oil. Hurricanes will be the lotto. But the long term is that oil will drop when the U.S. reverses interest rates. A long strangle on oil seems reasonable at this point. Some claim oil can still go to $300 (forget Goldman Sach target of $200) and others say it will get to below $100 again.

July 23 aftermarket:
AMZN: a fancier OTSK?
T(unknown earnings time): can AT&T claim more on their network with iPhone 3G?
BIDU: the Olympics are near... after that, then what...
FFIV: toss up, but a Cramer favorite.
LHO: small hotel franchise... maybe a put
NTGR: they cater to homes & small businesses... maybe a put here
NTRI: rally on low volume today - u know what that could mean
BTU(no time supplied): here is your energy catalyst
PHM: they might as well build for the homeless... maybe a put
QCOM: CDMA technology - i.e. Verizon. no iPhone for you...
TER: chip testers equipment *yawn*
ALL: Allstate, solid fundamentals

There are a bunch of pre-market earnings, namely BA & ATI, i already bought for the 23rd today...
btw, Airlines kicked butt today. Of course Oil dropping surely helped besides JBLU earnings.

Another AAPL reverse fade... incredible

Mind you this has to be perfectly timed...
Imagine you bought a call that was basically worthless, the aug180call was worth $1!!! if you watched it carefully. it ended the day at $114. So, say you spend $200, you now have 22,000+. Forget GOOG, now this is a return... on calls with the stock opening in the red!!! i am sure i didnt discover this, but its worth keeping note of...

The previous example of aug165calls is more likely... but the potential position is definitely a cool way that works well (as it works with the more natural mentality to buy something cheap which includes BOTH traders & long investors instead of selling short)

OK enough with that. Moving on to July 23/24

Buys... On Earnings... "AAPL Reverse Fade?"

EMC: aug15calls & sep12puts (update: benefitting from VMW whacking)
ETFC: sept4put
JBLU: aug5call & dec5put. i only found out later that they already reported upside. boring... wasted time & $.

SKX options. not enough volume, so didnt bite
EW calls, ran out of time... wanted an Aug call.
VMW puts, i positioned EMC puts to benefit from double whammy.

AAPL: i thought of buying a call early in the session. it was slammed only because of guidance. its a running joke when AAPL gives that part of its earnings report, sure enough the buyers all eventually came because the stock was cheap. an option position that would have been sweet was buying an aug165call@1.25 at the open. it was worth 10.00 the previous day, but now sits at 5.35. you can do the math. but its a lesson worth remembering for next Q. hmm is there a term for this? Reverse Fade? Anyway, this seems to be safer (maybe more than a strangle) than buying prior to earnings since a direction has been established.

HOT: i love the buying in hotels. i dont know if the bad numbers from HOT will be the same as MAR about 2 weeks ago. but how different can they be. i may in fact position MAR in place of HOT. either way i want tons of buyers - so i can buy puts of course.

Learning BID/ASK Real time Exit

There was a window where my Oct17.5put bid/ask was 4.85/4.9 while the last was 4.5. Should have sold right there to market and reset at another strike. I dont think it will reach that point again today.

My eyes are set on other positions...

Monday, July 21, 2008

Narrowing Focus...

Yesterday my Oct17.5puts will have action today... i think there will be a follow throught tomorrow. i will set a tight stop in the end. or sell half the position.

Out of my list, I am narrowing my focus at sessions end:
-ETFC: possible buyout, Q probably stinks
-JBLU: risk/reward on cheap puts(aug/sep/dec)
-SKX: aug22.5put or oct20put, possible bad earnings & legal battle with CROX
-EMC: relatively cheap strangle, VMW losses hurt bottom line. altho they have a pending data backup deal in play.

less 1/2 hour to open

(Specific) Shooting Fish In A Barrel...

So much red has been in the market and yet we are still at the beginning of the earnings season. Financials have been a toss up because of the govt. But Tech on the other hand has been whacked. We could do it the easy way and short the Naz, but the returns are limited if done in that fashion.

So what specific tech/others to look to short/put:
JULY 22...
-BRCM: there is potential in iPhone orders, so beware. but the $5 options strike @17.5 may be worth a bunch at days end.
-CAT: reports prior to open, so maybe a bit late - but there is quite a ways to go down. options show interest up to -$10
-CHKP: reports prior to open. internet security software still in demand tho.
-ETFC: toss up. but cheap puts/calls. nice stragle.
-EW: call interest has increased per earnings.
-JBLU: airlines have been whacked for awhile, but still cheap puts
-LXK: printers. boring... its tech tho...
-RCL: vacation related. enough said. reports prior to open tho.
-UPS: dropped to 50 after 9/11 so it can still fall
-VMW: once a great bull play. dramatic swings. bad news may be priced in already

You might consider these positions before July 22 session ends.
July 23 earnings before opening bell:
-EMC: already whacked. most recent LOW 7.53(2002)
-MCD: pretty much recession proof, but will they meet street?
-BTU: will set the stage for coal/energy
-SKX: shoes. toss up... still in style?
-BA: alot of contract orders. more efficient planes. strangle?
-NYT: losing AD revenue... this stock was $7 in early 90's. option interest/volume show a bunch of strangles.
-TRV: insurance/finance... who knows...

oops... forgot UPS. Next on Deck...

they probably will miss earnings...

YHOO (july22): my spec is that Icahn got onto Yahoo!s board because they are desperate.

HOT (july 24 before open) & WYNN (july 24 after close): the bad news has just started... the worst is ahead of them... i say HOT will be at the same levels after 9/11.

Gut Instincts realized

AAPL fell despite another record quarter... its the guidance... otherwise i do think in a couple weeks (maybe days), the buyers will be back when they digest the significant shift towards Macs & iPhones, iPods are now an afterthought. They cant keep enough iPhones in supply... but you have some people planting a few seeds of doubt in the stock with questions about Steve Jobs health and the next CEO. What a nice set up for bulls... i say over 200 again in January... possibly October... ha! I would be surprised if i get my $ back on that Oct250call.(update: to clarify i was tossing some sarcasm) but i think there is HUGE upside... just not in the near term

SNDK: fell like a rock. finally a put in my favor... mind you its been over a week since i grabbed a real winner.

AXP: my suspicions were incorrect, i missed the put of the day.


SNDK october17.5puts AND aug22.5call (bear bias: didnt want to buy calls, just covering my butt)
YHOO aug15puts AND Jan32.5call (long bull bias, buyout merge spec)

RHT jan12.5put

chicken to trade: AAPL (i think it goes up +10) (update: bot Oct250call who knows, but i think they will surprise, its just the crazy guidance they keep giving usually stinks, i think AAPL is undervalued)

Waiting patiently to trade: HOT (i think it goes down -6)

Friday, July 18, 2008

Next On Deck...

AAPL: i am hoping the thing sells off prior to earnings... then i will buy a call... maybe a put on the side... they have the potential to surprise... upside... this gets the headlines that GOOG did AND the option premiums are difficult for a small player like me. (mind you i got whacked this past week: USO somewhat, HOT late exit, GOOG... ouch)
AMX: huge Latin/S. America telecom... toss up...
APX: V and MA get the attention...
BAC: the govt manipulates too much. not worth it
BSX: medical devices, may be worth a strangle
SNDK: this may be worth it... one put please...

This week was nonetheless instructive.
-the big names may reward big, but the premiums are prohibitive
-BIDU mirrors GOOG and the options were cheaper.
-any of the 4 horsemen would have been a way to position for GOOG
-MSFT was looked over... they are huge, but played second fiddle, BUT rewarded way more than GOOG. cheap puts + huge returns = happy individual investor. i am hoping that SNDK will be that on Monday.

NO time to hang my head. I almost expected to lose... sad... will get back to the disciplined trading that made me basically double my meager accounts. worked hard and stayed out of trouble...

props to GIO on btw, i bought a put myself today...

Learned A Few Things...

BIDU was a much better July option trade than GOOG... as well as RIMM
GOOG august is the only choice next time around... if on expiration day...

CONGRATS TO all the GOOG aug options holders, $NAS index, RIMM, BIDU holders.

i will give some props to ʻmytoneʻ who mentioned positioning BIDU instead of GOOG.


Got a bunch of worthless GOOG options... want some? it is in the red... but not enough...

As FLY says... "developing"

Thursday, July 17, 2008

I forgot about positioning for C...

Well, GOOG was a total mess for me... i dont think it will hit any of my strikes... and time decay is also a factor. it really stinks...

So, do we gap to 460 or 530? I dunno... anyway, best to plan for AAPL. The most confusing of all tech. except for this past 1st Q guidance, the tendency is to under guide. cʻmon S.Jobs, reward your fellow option buyers... July 21 after hours

I am just waiting for HOT for earnings... they cant smooth talk their way out as GOOG did today.

MSFT was a better play...

I looked at MSFT earlier in the day... and i regret not putting something in there... the puts/calls were WAYYYY cheaper than GOOG. and its direction is firm...

Mother market taketh away-eth...

After-Market... Worse Case scenerio playing out

So the aftermarket is bearish, but there is an upswing on the bollinger (20) on my real-time chart. The point is it may have fell hard but as the conference goes on, buying is happening... it could be a blah day for GOOG tomorrow.

Say goodbye to $500. see ya next year...

Tomorrow will show what i have to left to recover from all this... missed the move in USO/HK/etc in order to position for GOOG. NOT WORTH the trouble next time...

GOOG buffet... Mind you i could lose all of it...

Between 3:30 and 3:43 pm EST, I BOUGHT the following...

CALL SIDE: july 600@1.6, 620@.45, 640@.30 kinda unrealistic. but hey this is tech...

PUT SIDE: july 450@1.1,420@.30 very possible...

I am VERY aware of the fact i could lose ALL off these contracts... Especially if GOOG is flat... However, if i told you last earnings that a $150 risk would bank 12,000... hey that is what you call leverage.

With that in mind, my view at this time is i LOST all of the above at about 4:30 p.m. EST
... 60% to cash... other opportunities await...

HK... wow it gets blasted again... FED/GOVT/PREZ

Well i for one didnt think HK would get dumped on. This thing is dirt cheap today, but i am alas focussing on GOOG. It would have made a nice short for me had i not had jury duty yesterday. I couldnt help thinking about the market yesterday, knowing i was missing some of the biggest swings in history. This would have funded my GOOG in a large way... oh well.

I cant help but think that this bull thing that the FED & Banks are selling are worthless. We will go lower... I EXPECT A CRASH. The govt is essentially asleep at the wheel. Bush doesnt care, he is leaving. Btw, November something is when they vote in a new Prez. I think the market will without a doubt move in a HUGE way!

update!!! crude oil <$130 possible strangle? not for me...

GOOG stock begets BIDU... By the way, AAPL

These stocks are almost bound together. I dont think the same can be said for AMZN. They are purely retail...

GOOG/BIDU play off each other I am thinking whether i can position elsewhere to go off GOOG earnings. BIDU itself reports July 23. The Olympics is the unknown factor...

btw, AAPL is nearing 8% of US PC sales. Amazing... there is no need mention of iPhones. Their market share was 5% just 2 years ago. They grew 38% this Q alone. The irony of all this is that they were able to do this due to adding Windows-native capabilities. In the end Apple is a hardware company that uses software to differentiate itself. But the fact that they have the FASTEST desktop/mobile hardware to run Windows is just plain hilarious.

Anyway, I expect AAPL to give blah guidance and thus keep its stock from exploding upward. But I foresee huge movements maybe a couple days later, when people ingest the possibility that Apple may one day have 20% of the US market as it once did when they ruled. For now tho the economy stinks. It is sad that Apple wont let AAPL reflect the actual success of its business.

Waiting on GOOG... USO thoughts

I am waiting to get closer to the end of the session to firm my decision...
I do know that I will buy July options. I will risk one portfolio. If it moves half as much as last earnings there will be alot of happy options folks...

Gio had a survey for option positions yesterday. he was smart to get the puts yesterday... i thought of it but thought if the rally continued i would pay another premium...

Considerations: this is with the thought that i lose it all...
puts: july420 & 450/aug400
calls: july600 & 630

Will check back tomorrow... i am in a somber mood. not much excitement.

USO has gotten absolutely pounded the last few sessions. as it should, with the FED saying the may very will firm or even raise rates took the floor out from oil. i LEAP in oil puts is a great idea. DUG LEAP calls are still cheap as well...

Wednesday, July 16, 2008


Man what a day... glad i sold my HOT when i did...
I am sick about missing this swing...

GOOG looked on fire... it is best i wait for the best entry possible, but it looks as if i missed the best entry for my call option. Obviously my cheap aug400put is worth less than what i ate today.

I do hope this run continues through earnings... then we can reset for another drop.

Failure to sell... GOOG Patience required...

Well, I didnt get up early WFC says something bullish and now my HOT is paying for it... I am in effect in no-mans land... SO I SOLD... The bollinger band would have had me sell early and switch to calls, but alas i live in Hawaii... 330am gets old sometimes.

GOOG positions will best wait on Thursday... no sense trying to catch top/bottom today.

I missed out on USO 2nd drop... Energy getting pounded was expected, but my view was a bit clouded after the other day...

Gio has some interesting point on G$$GLE. It will be HUGE one way or the other... the last time GOOG reported. A $50 call ended up being worth... hmm $4000! the next day. Crazy... talk about a risk reward worth taking...

I am in essence all CASH and hold $50 worth of options/stocks sitting worthless...GOOG day tomorrow... Forget NOK my brain is so fried... I WILL re-enter HOT/MAR day of earnings depending on the trend, possibly earlier if the ugly news creep up sooner.

Today was all bulls... enjoy it now... we will revisit this the Bear stuff in a few weeks, maybe days...

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

INTC beat...

I am not shocked, to be honest its all about the mobile laptops... i am sure AAPL helps...

Depending on how Wall Street reacts, it will direct my option strike, altho i already have an Aug400put.

I am only holding HOT puts. I am a bit worried on a follow through tomorrow and MAR looked strong... on the other hand WYNN couldnt finish in the green.

I got NO CLUE what is happening tomorrow and thus 60% of my portfolio sits in cash...

Where am I?

I couldnt find anything worth buying except 1 GOOG put. It is TOO volatile for me. Sure some want to short energy - fine. I dont want any thing to do with energy (for at least a day - too sickening). I am concentrating my efforts on earnings for THIS WEEK.

I did buy one GOOG aug400put again with plans to buy a call day of earnings and add another put if it stuck to a specific range. i thought of buying BIDU/RIMM to mirror GOOG, but i am unsure how closely they would stick.

NOK: They will have something to say about their inability to compete with iPhone. Or is this already built into the stock...

COF: It never did break to green...

HOT may have rallied today (along with MAR), but this really is a false sector rally. Nothing in the economy has improved hotel occupancy, so for some of you out there, consider it a gift to find a cheaper put/short

In the end USO was the only position to burn me... sadly i didnt set a stop. oh and i kept getting false data from my brokerage account. it showed a 5% loss on my account value until i clicked the specific option, which showed a 40% loss. Even after USO came off its lows @110 AND after I sold my loser put, it still showed my account positions unchanged from the open! Horrible... but alas i have only myself to blame for going against the trend. No breakout... just breakdown again. I have no choice to regroup. I could have sold the meager profit on my HOT and reposition to lessen todays blow... So, remember my saying how awesome AMTD is? Well, today they stunk it up...

I am getting Smacked!!!

I was watching USO getting 146+/barrel. I then watch it settle and find nothing going on with USO. I go and so something for a 1/2 hour and BAM, USO is getting hammerred (i thought of buying puts for a second just prior...too little too late)

Realize though that Oil is nothing go hard on shorts/puts. To make matters worse, I sold off GOOG & RIMM puts too early, but who knew. Anyway, i have some decisions to make... Hold... or even Buy...

My only consolation is that i left my Portfolio B alone. Which basically gained 100% the other day...

Oil UP Because the $US/U.S. Eco STINKS...

So the Dollar falls hard against the Euro... Thus Oil is up a bit. What now FED? You gonna panic and raise rates after bailing out FNM, FRE, BSC, and whoever else we dont know about. I say go ahead and start a new trend for us...

I think we will see how well the banks were able to manage the bad news the previous quarters. USB reports today...

A co-worker mentioned EW, Medical related... You can do your own homework on it. The question will always be guidance and the fact is the economic backdrop makes a breakout that less likely. But such surprises are truly surprises and can reward greatly, see CSIQ...

I plan to watch the following closely today:
USO: weak dollar again
HOT/MAR: both still trends down below 52 week lows
GOOG: hoping this thing actually picks up a bit (cheaper puts)
USB, C, SKF: its all about financials today
DECK: missed this fall again, but shaggy shoes in this market?

Plan is to sell Oil into this latest trend... and bombard vacation related

Monday, July 14, 2008

BOUGHT... HOLD... Check Out Bank problems ahead...

-HOT aug25puts & nov30put: I reloaded on HOT, with November puts to ride... A market bounce does not change Starwoods future. I wish I bought MAR puts last week. It still has room to fall to about $14/$15 low found in 2002, just before the last bull market and post 9/11.

-USO aug117call: Stronger $US keeping it from breaking out, yet $/barrel going sideways, but one attack in middle east spells a spike...
-RHT jan12.5put: boring... but look at it! It is dying slowly... almost no option volume, just waiting for future stink earnings.

Props to GIO who got a nice spike on CSIQ. I almost bought it today... nope. I cant go against the general market trend. I dont have the fortitude to follow solars. Apologies to Brian, maybe he should have bought that iPhone position... and sold. It was a net 100%+ on calls with the same going for puts if you positioned for a fade.

Watchlist: MAR, GOOG, NOK, C.

CHECK out this link, thot FNM/FRE like fiascos are over? think again...

Fiscal Immorality...See for yourself...

SOLD back to mother market

misfire GOOG aug400put (-23%): accidental buy... it was suppose to sell...

RIMM july95put (about -7 to 10% loss): i was just happy i almost broke even. i had a 200% gain once on these that didnt sell

LEH aug12.5put (-13%): looks like the FNM/FRE bailout will give a slight bounce here.

HOT aug30puts (50% gain): grab that profit and dont be greedy, looked like it bottomed for today (update: i was wrong). may reset at end of session

GOOG aug400put (100% gain): will rebuy somewhere on day of earnings, i saw a blip on the Bollinger real time that showed it might have reached bottom AND wanted to keep the profit to make up for the STUPID accidental buy at the market open.

So my portfolio stands with:
USO aug117call: pressure from stronger $US, but supply worries secondary to instability in suppliers


I have a 100% gain on GOOG aug400put, but instead of selling it, my automated trigger bought another option. yikes. have to pay attention to that... especially if the wife is talking (distracting). So, wasted a few bucks selling it back to minimize my risk... RIMM is still connecting with GOOGs losing ground... i am thinking of selling this too...

HOT is continuing is spiral downward. I sold off MAR a bit too soon as it too is hitting a new low as i type this.

AAPL play would have been solid had someone bought last friday and set up a sell at todays open.

I am nervously holding USO. I am itching to get out... the real time price per barrel is what i am watching in relation to it.

Sunday, July 13, 2008


Well, there are a bunch of people prognosticating a bounce. Scary stuff... my portfolio is 80% bearish... well actually almost half of that is a call on oil... technically ʻbearʻ causing...

Anyway, thursday GOOG earnings will be interesting as will NOK. i will set up a far call for GOOG as I did a far put.

Things are VERY difficult to gauge. I will quickly sell off for profit... if the bounce does come it will pretty much shut down most of my portfolio...

USO is my only safety... spooky... HOT could still crash and burn even with the market bouncing. Past history showed the thing <$10 through the early/mid 1990s, followed by 1998 to 2003 being stuck in the 20 to 30 range, while money was being pumped into internet plays. The point is this could still go lower, it is obvious the chart shows it likely goes higher, but i really dont know.

Friday, July 11, 2008


MAR aug25put@2.3 (20% gain, sold near high)
HK sept50call@5.6 (sold too early, got jittery $30 profit, being careful)
LEH july5put@.24 (got back this 100% loss for a 5% loss)

USO aug117call@6.7 (broke to new high and confirmed/closed to new high)
LEH aug12.5put@3.5 (if FNM/FRE can go this low all financial can...)

Solid Hold:
HOT aug30put... held up. bought it back@.76 - reached a new option high 1.25 - nice but after MARs earnings I think HOT may have some bad news coming as well. I may sell into earnings and reposition day before... just to keep that profit.
RHT jan12.5put... its has time and bad fundamentals.

Jittery Hold:
RIMM july95put:if GOOG sinks... well there you go, i considered this a loss last week
GOOG aug400put: i saw it gain 100+ points its last earnings. who said it cant lose that much and more.
PLCN july80put: up in value, but no volume - basically worthless

I didnt have time to research much. I had a very important convention to go to today. Someone asked me about setting up for iPhone debut, i was like, nope... However, the energy sector has got back its mojo (altho i sold HK, missed a bigger profit and would have re-entered, but i was pressed for time today)

All in all uneventful, but profitable & disciplined. Opportunities for bigger profit, but i wasnt going to get up at 325am to participate.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

OIL (USO )kicks butt again/AAPL iPhone/HK ʻalamoʻ

I actually saw it beginning to breakout but didnt jump in... it broke from 111 and propelled to 114 and i showed it to my wife this morning... it happened in <1 minute... amazing. If USO crosses 116 i will be there ready...

AAPL will have some bragging rights depending on how many iPhone 3Gs are actually sold tomorrow (in some countries today). You better believe i will place a strangle in there with a bullish bias depending on iPhone numbers. I never expected people in Europe and Asia to camp out for these things.

HK is my lone position that is profitable, i actually caught this thing prior to its second to the last rally of the day. (The rest of my portfolio total about $100 loss, not bad it could have been worse) HK can get to 50 easier now with Oil on its side. Interestingly, even when oil initially head down with other energy securities, HK broke to a new high. So, if anything, it will be one of the last energy positions standing (remember the Alamo). Look to HK and buy dips... during a trading session. I have that call going into Sept.

I have a little unusual position on HOT & MAR. The news cant get any better going forward for them. But I worry that my going with August puts leave little room for volatility...

I have packed weekend so no trading tomorrow. Setting a couple sell stops...


I have not made a buck on DIA puts. The one time it showed green on my screen (last week), i didnt know it was a short session (July 3). I wont be getting DIA any time soon. It may be good to buy at sessions end as it is hovering at these levels and sell at sessions open the next day, but i am cutting my loss here...

CHL aug65put
DIA aug111put

So my positions include thus far:
-holding pattern
RHT jan12.5put
RIMM july95puts (will cut this loser soon)
GOOG july400put (my spec)

bought today
HOT aug30puts (hopefully works out based on MAR)
MAR aug25puts (better late than never, hopefully)
HK sept50call (lone bull for now)

Cash... i wont go all in... if this was all bonus money than sure... but i am still the average dude trying to pay of my debt.


Well MAR dropped as expected, and the sick part is I wasnt part of the put buying. I am not allowing that to happen with regard to HOT which also dropped on MARs earnings and guidance.

HOT aug30puts@.75. It may at least double in the time prior to earnings on July 24.
MAR aug25puts@1.9 It may be later than expected, but it has more downside DESPITE the chart saying bottom. Either way, why didnt i buy both these puts earlier?

Oh, Oil is oversold mind you. It will get to $140. If it crosses $146 back up your truck...

HK... i wished i kept that call... anyway, i switched out my small CHL put for an HK sept50call.

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Check this out... CIR

Interesting to say the least. But no options... so i have no buying interest. if you are one to short everything in the sun, this is an interesting play because i mean cmon they sell valves and fittings for fluid control products in the USA. anyway, they must be good at what they do.

Put buying... Argh! forgot to buy MAR!

GOOG aug400put (450 pm EST)
DIA aug111put (452 pm EST)
CHL aug65put (456 pm EST)

So how did i forget to buy MAR!!! They report before market opens tomorrow... But i have been squawking about this one in the past and now that the time has come i forget to buy puts... ridiculous!!!

The Casinos got whacked today... didnt pay attention again... too many ʻoptionsʻ

Anyway, Bear Market/Bear Market/Bear Market... i dont know what bottom some are calling but it aint here yet. I have be content with my positions and not cry about missing MAR. GOOG may pay out in spades if Tim is right on again... He has featured RIMM & PCLN when they were barely showing bear signs. I will give a mucho grande props for him if he is right on with GOOG. They report July 17 after market closes, i may buy some puts that day, but we shall see how this week goes til then with what i have.

Btw, if $oil/barrel crosses <130 i am buying puts in USO... I may try my IYR theory again

SOLD!!! Most of everything... Reassess

HK Sept45call 23% gain (4-ish am HST)
IPI Aug60call 20%+ gain (4-ish am HST)
DUG Aug35call 39% loss (glad i sold)
IYR Sept58put 44% loss (sold too soon)

The last sell (IYR) i just plain gave up, but as it turns out it looks like it may get ITM soon. So, sold off a bit prematurely. The same could possibly be said for IPI but a profit is a profit and it looks like my wins outweigh my losses so far today.

Will reposition portfolio at sessions end. Oil is still unstable, but it still keeps a cap on rallies.

So, i have a couple things to consider: buy IYR puts again, USO deep ITM calls, HK calls, GOOG far puts (Tim), and some other stuff...

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Currency ETFs

$US vs Euro: FXE, ERO
$US vs Pound: FXB, GBB
$US vs Yen: FXY
$US vs $Canadian (my favorite to possibly short): FXC
$US tracker: ITPS, UUP(bullish), UDN (bearish)

The options on these are boring, but if one would like to position for the rate hike here you go...

I am going back to sleep. Night shift stinks that way... but hey, I have a job, so I aint complaining...

Brought Back Old Friends

IYR theory is so far a failure (thx to Ben handing out our tax money), in fact I tried to sell the thing.

Bought: IPI Aug60call, HK Sept45call

i am back in the Ags & coal. Why? Because my bear portfolio is going to get whacked tomorrow I needed to hedge and jump into this rally... tho i think it will be short lived...

So, I got
2 bulls: IPI & HK
5 bears: IYR, RIMM, PCLN, RHT, DUG

I have no idea what happens tomorrow, Long term bear, short term big mean bull with 25K horns


Well, Sold DIA puts early in the session. 5% loss. I learned from USO yesterday to sell close to break even if the trend is broken.

Looked to buy OIH puts but didnt...
Bought DUG Aug35call (maybe bought too early)
Still holding: PCLN july100put, RIMM july100put (probably zero out), IYR sept58put, RHT jan12.5put

The rest is in cash...

I really dont know if energy gets a massive bounce, but it is certainly possible. That includes Oil, however breaking <$140 is a psychological barrier...

Anyway, i have little confidence in this market even tho for now it is green. i may buy at sessions end...
btw, wish i bought them VMW puts - talk about a payday.

Like I Said, "Oil run over for now"...But Didnt Expect a collapse. FED and DIA

You bet i am happy i got out of Oil/USO yesterday. Grabbing a short/put position was not part of the plan (unfortunately).

And now the FED wants to lend more of our tax money to the greedy lenders. Ridiculous. My DIA puts are going nowhere...

Monday, July 7, 2008

Oil...SOLD USO, its run Over for now... WHERE to go from here? Rate Hike Related...

Oil has gone up primarily from the FED cutting rates. Couple that with Natural Disasters and crazy middle east stuff and you got an unusual supply demand thing going on... Today was an example when all those legs broke today... likely rate hike, hurricane will miss a supplier, and Iran/Israel talking agreement... bam! Oil down >$5 at one point.

Of course, Oil will still trend higher. but pressure on oil is greater. the natural disasters and middle east conflict can always send oil higher, but we may not find it on the nice reliable trend of late.

Anyway, I sold my lone USO CALL @20% loss. Pretty much erased my profit from last week... yet, better to cut it than risk losing more. I missed that exit today with a 5% loss, but learned some stuff today. same goes for DIA puts (i am holding) i had a chance to bank some coin. would-ah, could-ah, should-ah. A profit is a profit... and the time i spent on all this is the bummer part of it. The Credit Crisis i thing though is upon us again and couple that with the FED raising rates and trouble looms...

I may buy USO again, it is just a matter of what is going on at the time... right now, nope...

If we are indeed set for an interest hike, imagine all those living it up on credit. Even the publishers clearing house sweepstakes spokesman guy (Ed), filed for bankrupcy, he was a mulitmillionaire! The US is filled with other people who are not poor yet are basically broke...

WHERE $ Might FLOW...
I think it is time to short real estate again. financials have been pounded to pieces already. it is back to real estate... SRS is an example of what is possible from here...

IYR chart on the other hand make you think this has bottomed...

But where is the actual the bottom?

So @313 pm EST, i bought IYR Sept58put@3.79...Rationale?
If we keep getting an interest rate increase (stem inflation), where are people going to get their loans to live? Is the ʻbankruptʻ government going to step in again? How about all those greedy banks/brokers/agents... all your homes will be worth"less"... "Less" in that you will have no one to sell them to and YOU are stuck like everyone else. Sure you will have more money than Joe Blow, but you will be buying food with him at 7 Eleven...

So rate hike means stronger dollar... and yet the US Economy stinks. I dont know about trading $US versus other currencies. I will have to investigate that further...
By the way, i am all in for a stronger $US, i have a trip possibly coming up next year in Europe. I need a stronger $US in the worst way...

Missed My Exit... USO calls/DIA puts

Shoulda: sold USO call when it failed to break green...
Shoulda: sold DIA @meager profit and reset for tomorrow at sessions end...
Shoulda: waited on that IYR put... just threw more money at mother market without getting paid...

Now i am staring at USO screen... waiting for that dumb exit that might have past...

I DECLARE! OIL will not be a bull (for now). I shall post later on this...

(UPDATE 356pm EST: Sold USO call)

Agonizing....USO call/DIA put... bought PCLN put. Considering Real Estate Short/Put

The $Oil/barrel is recovering but USO isnt exactly cooperating... I am still hanging tight.

DIA put are safer, but my small profit is being wiped out... what a waste...

PCLN. Better late than never, bought July80put

SRS on a small breakout (and IYR breakdown)... they will play nice and may return big if interest rates do indeed increase, thereby destroying any chance for the borrower to well... borrow... losing their home (if they havent done so already) AND car, etc really anything bought off credit.

Did I mention credit report tomorrow? Maybe that will tip things farther (pretty much what I hoped Unemployment would do) against the Index, specifically the Dow. I will not go against the NAZ (yet), AAPL got some news that might zero out the bad news.

AAPL cart... Oil... IWM

Glanced at some other blogs of dudes a lot more intelligent than me. AAPL has been suggested as going on the short list. The technical tend to agree with the channel high 170s to low mid 160s. The long term put is much safer - as the longer trend shows it heading to 120... its solid base before double digits.

HOWEVER, the pent up news coming July 11 is something of note. iPhone release day. I am one who does not own one nor wants one (yet). but people have already been standing in line for these things and the number of those interested since the price cut is unbelievable (update 8am HST: UK is SOLD OUT of iPhone 3G before it is even released). so anyone shorting AAPL just prior to July 11 and out of the 160-178 range BE VERY careful. Price spikes in AAPL is something wicked that can eat you alive (i have lost on both the call/put side...)

Oil has somewhat recovered and kept to the 140ʻs. I didnt sell my lone USO call, just thought about it. Of course, had i NOT owned it (which was supposed to happen with a sell on a holiday Thursday session, i would have bought it up again...)

IWM must have rewarded a few people today. Unlike DIA & SPY, this thing moves in a big way. it is near its 52 wk low @65. So, much care is needed in puts/shorts


Oil per barrel is @<140. Do i jump ship? Or is this one of those back up the truck kind of thing.

As for the general market, the VIX looks like it has a spiked a bit just a little past 1230 EST. So my DIA puts are going to work.

And GLD specifically is spiking... do i switch from oil to gold? confused...

Oil Getting Pounded - I expect I will be too... Wait til Tuesday

Well, it seems like there will be a break for the bulls... Iran says they can negotiate something regarding their nuclear program. Unfortunate for me, I am ʻstuckʻ with USO call (which i intended to sell last thursday, but didnt know it was a half day of trading). Now i am in a position where my USO call may be blown to pieces and a hard bull run/rally may hit my DIA puts (i also intended to sell at least half that position on thursday). My RIMM puts will likely get blown to pieces as well...

In the end this coming session would have been an awesome time to buy USO. but instead i am ʻstuckʻ. I can only watch helplessly. DIA has time on its side with they being Sept puts. But RIMM/USO July options that expire next week - yikes! I may be in huge trouble....

We shall see... i doesnt make any sense for me to wake up 3am to watch my portfolio get pounded...

OIl... runs the market... i was at a ʻbonfireʻ recently... watch that thing burn for some time. looks like i am going to watch my portfolio burn too...

Oh yeah... one thing the bulls will fear is Tuesday... Credit Crisis (again)

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Sold HK puts (triggered)/Upcoming Week

I had to go to sleep... It was like 345am. the thing is i missed HK getting even lower. so, again left some $ on the table. But sell stop was set obviously too low. anyway, missed another 100%+ gain - ahem 350% to be exact. I will be content with a 33% gain.

In any case, i didnt know it was an abbreviated day to trade. I wanted to switch out my DIA puts for more USO calls.
We will see what the coming week of news will bring.

July 8 consumer credit/housing sales
July 9 crude inventories - AGAIN?
July 11 trade balance (not so clear cut indicator for US economy)

On hold
RIMM July100puts (i am trashing this next week)
RHT Jan12.5puts
USO july113calls (i expect some fireworks on monday not July 4)
DIA sept112puts (wish i sold half the position today)

Unemployment Still Bad But Not Worse, Now what?

USO premarket with a has a sell off taking place...
DIA premarket in the green...


Anyway, I have decisions to make. Do I sell off everything?
Well, selling off USO might be a good idea at the open, then re-enter later. Mr Paulson has no idea how to fix oil prices. Its because he cant! He is part of the problem. He is making dough with the oil cartel.

Unemployment is steady... or as expected. 62K. Not sure exactly how they got the number.
So, regarding index puts, i really dont know how strong either way it will open. I do have time on my side regardless. I almost hope today stays flat so i can hold my index options next week. Thing is i want to cut any loses from a possible bounce...

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Plan Sticks... Furious Closing Buys

(1022 am EST) HK july35puts@0.10 (reaction buy from seeing the coal sector crash all around it, while it broke out 2nd day in a row)

(1102 am EST) USO july113call@5.30 (no spike after crude inventory, but supply suggest USO goes higher wanted it confirmed green before buying)

(356 pm EST) DIA sept112puts@4.70 (thought of july/aug but wanted to protect from a possible rally)

(350ish pm EST) "accidently" bought x3 DIA shares (was trying for puts, not good to be trading when barely awake) so I sold it at a loss... trading 2 interfaces (AMTD & SCOTT not a good idea for someone who slept <2 hours) threw away $15. you are welcome Scottrade. My bad...

RHT jan12.5put (boring, but i see it happening)
RIMM july95puts (this shuda been the 250+% gain the other day)

Well, if there was anything i might have done differently, it would have been to go with a heavier lean on USO calls. But DIA puts work for me too, specific for unemployment news tomorrow. The thing is there is no ʻguidanceʻ or forecast attached to unemployment numbers but any surprise of lower numbers could blow up my puts. Also maybe I should have bought one IWM put... IWM surely returns better than DIA but i digress.

To sum it up got an Oil call/with a coal hedge in the form of HK puts and Index puts in the form of DIA. Pretty much ʻstuckʻ to my plan that I posted on sunday with the exception of when i actually entered all my index puts today rather than one on Tuesday and one today. HK puts was a bonus.. I still left some to cash (cant get greedy).

HK and GMXR are en fuego! Bought HK puts

Man i really regret selling that Aug45call 2+ weeks ago...

Anyway, i am actually trying to buy a put ahead of crude numbers. Missed the dirt cheap July35puts@.05 and got in @.10
Almost all the other coals are down... but HK is either unstoppable or squeezing out the last energy bears. It will be my insurance hedge on energy.

Index Focus on DIA

Why DIA? Because there is a large amount of energy stocks in the S&P, though it also has a bunch of Financials as well. But DIA... to be honest, it provides the clearest of all things market wise for my limited knowledge. someone out there correct me... I dont like QQQQ puts or QID because of strength from AAPL. Nor do i like IWM, too volatile for me.

The technical DJI graph i posted a few days back still says we continue in this downward channel...SEE "OIL AND $INDU" (6/26/08)... That being said, I am still waiting for a bounce, which i guess will happen today.

There was a report regarding high unemployment may lead to the FED cutting rates yet again... which of course adds to the Oil rally (again).

So I have focused my attention on the following with 1030am EST in mind:
USO calls, RDC calls, HK calls, PCLN puts, DIA puts, GG calls, RIMM puts

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Few Notes... Tech... Oil pressure

Tech has formed a short term base for a rally. BUT a follow through may very well be dependent on pressures from energy (oil news) and a weak US$(euro-union to raise rates?)

AAPL & RIMM each made a $10 turn around. However, RIMM after hours showed another sell off with profit taking and a few bulls finding a sell point/take their loss.

The run up for AAPL is also related to the iPhone release and earnings on July 21. Some wonder if AT&T has indeed subsidized the iPhone, meaning a guaranteed pay out to Apple. So, although I will refuse to participate (until a base is formed >205), AAPL may very well be in for a relief/sector rally.

I still think energy has some punches left. The trend is still for Oil to go higher the rest of the year. GW-Bush is still in charge... but patience is necessary

I will pay attention to the 1030am EST numbers... and set up ONE deep ITM index put for unemployment come Thursday as planned.

Mind you, if the unemployment numbers are better than expected we will get that mini rally the bulls have been begging for - otherwise its more Bears as usual. i may throw a call out there just in case..

Watchlist includes: USO, PCLN, HK, GG, RIMM, INDEXes (DIA, SPY, QQQQ, SDS)

A bit miffed... Missed a sell & Without a meaningful position at the moment

Well i HAD a plan to carry out today (like buying some SLW).... but slept right through it. My alarm was set on vibrate... just great (sarcasm)

Altho i gave AMTD much props for helping me this morning. I still forgot to sell my RIMM july100put position @ a 250% gain! because i didnt set a stop the day before! It will surely go to zero at this point... at the very least i would have sold for a loss today.

It seems as though i have no choice but to watch others have fun tomorrow. I will just have to join the action later. 430am HST. It will give me the first glimpse of possible positions... Energy might continue its run based on crude inventories tomorrow.

Also of interest is the fact that the people deciding on the Euro may actually raise rates on Thursday (July 3)... thereby weakening the US$ and strengthening Oil/Gold further. (FED did its job of weakening the US$, now others can join in maybe they are all in the same boat while Uncle George ʻOilʻ Bush is the prez)

Anyway, my planned positions for this week has basically worked out. Going to cash prior to crude numbers AND again prior to unemployment numbers on Thursday...

Correction Crude numbers tomorrow...

Anyway... i thought it was today. I was waiting for some fireworks. for now i will go to sleep. and wake up before the session ends. I am considering GG (thx Gio) for my gold and maybe HK(wish i held) & SLW (gold AND silver)

I think there is a bounce somewhere tomorrow. I some volatility related to the Crude numbers.

I may just go ahead and wait for that time to come... but we will see how the market finishes when i wake up in less than 2 hours...

AMTD is awesome... USO sold...

For the life of me i couldnt remember my additional security passwords when i am on a shared computer. i had to do a phone trade... like the 3rd in my life. the execution was instant. and she gave me the internet price for the trade.

she then helped me to have access with the computer i was using at work.

on top of that i had a solid sell (my minimum 15% gain) i got a market sell that 2 minutes later was no longer available on my USO july110call. it may very well run up til the crude numbers, but its fine with me. i was relieved not to have lost this one. bummer tho, i had an even greater gain if i remembered whether i did set my sell stops or not. Anyway...

PROPS to Ameritrade.

Other stuff...
PCLN keeps dropping. I refuse to chase... or enter until July 2 or the end of todays session.
i await numbers in about 1/2 an hour on crude. will wait for reaction and move into USO & HK, which may happen at sessions end.