Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Play the Earnings

itʻs been a recent pattern recently where the non-fliers have returned huge rewards... INTC & MSFT as examples. the strike out of the money is so absurd that i would have positioned myself in them, had i even looked at them.

or another way would be the far-out calls on zig-zaggers i.e. MA... huge reward! iʻm now waiting for SHLD...

Nov 1: WDC Nov30@$.15 trades $25.92
Nov 2: VIA Nov45@$.20 (transformers!) trades $41.36

I will be listing these examples.

GPS...and recommendations

it seems GPS on phones will soon become mainstreem. so much for privacy. my co-workerʻs play on it included GRMN, which was shot down. But SIRF on the other hand blew earnings...and is still undervalued I.M.O.

FSLR is still kicking butt, i have STP stock instead.

Some imply MSFT, INTC, DELL are insulated to FED volitility, being catagorized in the slow flyer group. MSFT continues to live off its monopoly if u ask me. I think DELL is now out of the woods. so, as much as i hate them, i may give them a play. INTC was a favorite of mine, if AMD continues to have problems in price/performance vs INTC then who else is gonna stop them?

Consistently I keep reading that AAPL is well-liked. Itʻs guidance seems to have brought in stability and a sort of protection from sliding as quickly as my other holdings: VMW, RIMM, BIDU or GOOG. In that case, I may very well drop these guys and go AAPL... rumors abound of a stock split. I donʻt think itʻs necessary, but who cares, since itʻll drive it up...

Economic data continues to pour out this week. I hope the FEDʻs cut will stem any bad news going forward.

Nothings Changed

FED gave a quarter % rate cut and hinted it may not do so the rest of the year. Itʻs a neutral stance...So, where did i position myself?

AAPL: having successfully traded out of Dec175calls (15% gain) i moved to Dec185calls. however, my sell trigger came as the Fed reported. it moved so fast that it triggered an immediate 18% loss...that had it been left alone would have basically gotten back to something negligable. I ended with a Dec190call@9.55

RIMM: Jan150@6.2 theyʻre in china now...they have a lead before AAPL gets there next year.

GOOG: Dec150call. finally have a piece of them. google phone social platform API news is getting out, tho misunderstood. besides AAPL, this stock is one that canʻt be denied as a sure winner.

VMW: Jan150@7.4...i already missed the action this past week. but it still has room to grow. this is the only option i have some worry about because of itʻs huge run up. But i believe thatʻs where it should have been anyway. I wonʻt go into my story of the falling "knife" again.

Straight up stock include:
BIDU & STP. Can move as fast as options at times...

I will indeed switch my Scottrade to Zecco. Execution is faster, not to mention cheaper. AMTD still has an awesome interface and services that will make up for anything i may not find in Zecco.

Basically, my positions are somewhat logical but carry greater risk than purely staying in the money. i didnʻt have enough capital to go went a bit further out on strikes in December. All strikes are potentially within a week away from getting in the money.

The Early Winner is...

MA. talk about blowing out expectations. it's up 17% as i post this. if u had the guts to get in prior to FED. you deserve it... i'm tempted to buy puts here, but i haven't been successful at that all year.

AAPL: moved my Dec175calls to 185 to lock the profit, while lessening my cost basis. at the same time, if the FED cuts - the reward would indeed be greater.

There's green all around...hopefully it stays that way.

PLAN: wait for FED's cut then buy GOOG, VMW, BIDU, RIMM, and more AAPL.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Ahead...The Fed...

I woke up find what was possibly a missed opportunity. 17% gain on AAPL Dec175calls... And getting out of BIDU Nov470calls with a 9% loss(very acceptable). Alas i viewed the ending of the trading day. If i were a genius, i could have sold those positions - and bot cheaper calls, moving a strike out while decreasing invested risk.

The fact is, whatever the FED wants to do, i think AAPL will go up with holiday buying here... because of the customer base it serves (fanatics, fad buyers, rich people). And FORGET Leopard OS box sales. They are geniuses, the hype behind the OS will move many to buy a new machine with a perceived "free" OS upgrade.

But hey, i do welcome the cut...i will buy calls in:
-AAPL, GOOG, VMW, RIMM, STP(china/energy), BIDU. tho probably canʻt afford them all.

2:15pm (10am HST) is when the craziness begins. . itʻll either be bargain buying or rushing into hopefully the most bullish time of the year! (Nov, Dec, Jan)

Ahead...The Fed...

I woke up find what was possibly a missed opportunity. 17% gain on AAPL Dec175calls... And getting out of BIDU Nov470calls with a 9% loss(very acceptable). But alas i slept through it and caught the tail end. If i were a genius, i could have sold those positions - and bot cheaper calls, moving a strike out while decreasing invested risk.

The fact is, whatever the FED wants to do, i think AAPL will go up with holiday buying here... it was the only stock i could confidently position prior to the FED because of the customer base it serves (fanatics, people who donʻt mind buying "cool", or just filthy rich people).

But i do welcome the cut...i will buy calls in:
-AAPL(more), GOOG, VMW, RIMM, STP(china/metal), BIDU.

2:15pm (10am HST) is when the craziness begins. I canʻt wait til daylight savings starts next week. hopefully, we also trade into the most bullish time of the year! (Nov, Dec, Jan). So, thereʻs no rush here i was willing to wait til Friday for things to pan out.

Wait and See...

It seems that it's most prudent to let the rest of the week shake out. My buy in AAPL Dec175calls may indeed have been an error. it's been flat or down from last week. I'm hoping for the FED to indeed give us a gift. AAPL is much more affordable than GOOG or BIDU. Their guidance is something they're confident they'll reach.

On the BUY watch: STP seems the best (beating FSLR). it accomplishes 2 for 1 position, China & Energy all tied in one. Earnings 11/15. On top of that Jan65call@5.60. suprisingly cheap considering Dec65calls are 5.00

Monday, October 29, 2007

Defining Strategy

So, as VMW illustrated. Iʻm not bad at my picks. my execution regarding short-term stinks. so what to do? Treat my positions as regular stocks... ups and downs but trending up.

With that in mind... i bot AAPL Dec175calls@16.5...
I also attempted RIMM Jan125calls@13.65, but failed to bid up quick enough...

I have my spec BIDU Nov470call left in play. why not?

So as for this day... whatʻs my option strategy?

IN the money calls 2 month+ it ride...
OUT of the money calls - 1 or 2 days before earnings or expected news...
China & Energy will all be longs. I will do my homework... tho i could just get FXI calls for china if iʻm too lazy

Option Strategy Look.

Using VMW as my benchmark...

had i kept Jan90call (bought 10/5 @12.70) today: 33.1... +$2040

what actually happened.

Jan90call sold 10/09 @18.90 (+5.80)[total +580]
10/09: bot Nov105call@8.2 10/10 sold@11.0(+2.0)[+780]
10/10: bot Nov125call@4.5 10/11 sold@6.80(+2.30 x 2 = +4.6)[1240]
10/10: bot Nov160call@2.0 10/11 sold@1.45(-0.55 x 4 = -2.2)[1020]
10/11: bot Nov130call@5.8 10/29 sold@2.80(-3.00 x 2 = -6.0)[420]KNIFE DAY!
10/11: bot Nov155call@2.0 10/15 sold@1.0 (-1.00 x 2 = -2.0)[220]KNIFE DAY!
10/24: bot Nov80put@1.35 10/25 sold@.15 (-1.20 x 1 = -1.05)[95]
10/25: bot Nov85put@.50 10/26 sold@.35 (-0.15 x 3 = -0.45)[45]

mind you this doesnʻt include, itʻs a negative.

learning cost $$$. may strategy may change...

Sold VMW

the orignal Nov130call trade was the worse that iʻve made since starting this blog. bought into a falling knife after a huge run-up was missed. As a result i missed the upside 20+ from pre-earnings b/cz i didnʻt want to place more in the position. iʻve seen this position -82%. So, -50% looks bad, but it was worse. I realize i may have sold a bit early. (i thought the FED report today, when they wonʻt til wednesday). but i couldnʻt stand watching them based on THAT position. it was time to move on... reset my head and jump back into VMW fresh in the future.

i missed yet another day of china (cha-ching). theyʻre all green, especially the solars (no pun intended).

i will add a china watchlist since this is where the $$$ is going.

Friday, October 26, 2007


They didnʻt exactly save the market. Actually Halo did... In any case, I am kicking myself for throwing $ @ BIDU and missing a 600%+ gain on MSFT calls @ 35strike! and it wouldʻve cost a mere 340 to return 1780 as an example. my failure to cover based on prejudice has again humbled me.

I didnʻt get up any earlier this time around...if anything maybe i should have just to sell my VMW 130calls. itʻs been my sore spot in my portfolio. The good news hopefully is that Tech will be solid when earnings season ends...

The eco news next week makes things a bit dicey to genuinely play anything.
AAPL: possible news of record Leopard sales over the weekend...

*Lesson play the this case no one expected much from MSFT, their calls were dirt cheap...

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Beat The Street...But Beaten Down

SNCR & BIDU. all beat expectations and yet my options were smashed prior to announcements. itʻs as if the market was being pulled down. and i have no control over the matter, being that i couldnʻt stay to wait for the market to close.

winners so far over the last 2 months
PALM (puts), RIMM, AAPL, VMW, SNCR, BIDU (acutally just today)

STV, XFML, BRCM... the 1st one really stunk up the joint after the first 2 days since the IPO.

PALM had a weird thing happen...related to itʻs dividend payout as well as a private firm buying a chunk of the company. I have Jan10puts & May7.5puts... and as u might have seen... the stock dove today from 18 to $8... so you would think iʻd be sitting on some 20 bagger... but all these options that were once worth nada are now Non-standardized options... i have no choice but to ask my broker about the true value of the these puts

Added A SPEC...

BIDU Nov470calls@2.2 suprised i got a good bid... donʻt know if itʻll blow up or crash. but there are too many $10 to $30 days that pumps those far out calls. so, i decided on picking north for BIDU. it is long term... short is just volitile... but Nov is cheap

New Home Sales Rise = VMW up...

So the green light (for today) has gone on...

VMW is en fuego

AAPL doing exactly what history dictates today...

The Bears are Back...

VMW is struggling to keep things up. Bot Nov85put to go against my nearly extinct Nov130calls. wish i cleared this loser earlier. the future for the company still bodes well. itʻs parent company EMC did meet earnings. but the market is ignoring the news of housing problems as reported in MER write-down of housing loans.

tomorrows housing and jobless claims data will hopefully define direction ... i may just let the Nov130calls die... itʻs nowhere near recovering this week or ever. i just want a pop in the data either way...suprise up or down....
eco reports next week inlude:
consumer confidence & spending, construction, hourly pay, etc...

btw, AAPL dove accordingly 2days after earnings report...recovering about midmorning... i canʻt wait for earnings season to end and capitalize on AAPL & RIMM potential...

BIDU reports very late (8pm EST). lotsa buying. wondering if expectations are too high...i will let the market settle and possibly straddle this beast. if anything i will run to BIDU far away from the crazy U.S. Economy.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007


Well I sold a bunch of stuff...namely AAPL... the buyers came back. i almost bit when it dipped below 180. but my experience with VMW last week got me to play safe. And when one plays safe, the return is small to moderate. Maybe it would have been better had i not even woke up to watch. Though selling RIMM was a definite good thing.

Happy VMW blew threw earnings. Regarding whether itʻs enough to pull my nov130 out of the hole is another story. Then again, if it could just catch fire as did AAPL then there you have it.
-sidenote EMC reports before the opening bell. iʻm unsure how negative news would affect VMW if any.

BIDU is something i may add as my spec. the calls are expensive... the cheap stuff is so far out...but the rewards are great. and bad news w/housing and oil could provide a further dip to get in.

GOOG has always been on my wish list. Dec800calls (sounds crazy!) but thatʻs a reasonable spec play.

anyway, the plan is to wait it out till about 930am EST regarding VMW before the homes/oil news are out, jobless claims are declared before the market opens. If there is bad news from there, i hope to get in on BIDU.

Bought VMW puts

Nov80puts@1.35 if they donʻt blow away earnings...this stock is gonna tank...

AAPL contracts sold

It couldnʻt find day support @185. sold Nov180@9.0. Bummer, i was hoping for profit that iʻve gotten on past rallys, wish i took the green @187 with Nov180@11 somewhat dissapointing. long view still holds. didnʻt have an exact number to sell, which may have been my downfall. but 25% is a solid gain, albeit i couldʻve gotten more sleep & $ had i sold yesterday. iʻll wait for the earnings season to die down. iʻm looking at Dec calls. i figured iʻd cash out the Nov150puts also, which i should have placed a trigger on.

Keep Jan 15 MacWorld as your next green day. I hope to use what iʻve learned today. in other words. sell as fast as you can on news. donʻt wait around...

Iʻm hoping for blowout numbers from VMW today. of which i wish i sold early in the day to bring strikes closer...then buy at a reasonable price.

Sold RIMM...watching AAPL, BIDU...

Well i sold RIMM a bit too early or late. It profit dipped followed by huge runup then proceeded to settle. i wanted to get ahead of the housing and oil stuff. wanted to actually realize my gain.

AAPL is not behaving as itʻs usual self. No solid bull today. Iʻm holding as long as i can today...

BIDU just watching options...being far out on both ends could be rewarding come Friday...

Note: AMZN, BRCM, SNDK are long buys. attempting BRCM May55calls@.25

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Hint from a friend

He says buy solar...which i previously asked him in an email

FSLR, JASO, YGE, TSL. of course, i listed the one with the most action first since January up from 20ʻs to 150!!!


AAPL: I was so disappointed in the inability of option call buyers to hold calls up. I initially had a chance to sell Nov180@13.7, but it settled to 10.7 - The test comes in early trading tomorrow. My plan holds that they go green another day then sell off. *Lesson learned (again) in selling early in the session (asap) Specifically when pre-market +$10. Take the initial ask and sell!!!
I will be up at market open, i will sell the calls on any premarket green!!! There will be dips ahead thx to the credit woes, oil, etc... when the earnings season ends and sales news start to dominate many opportunities await

RIMM: Bam! I wake up and find a gift! I had no idea the thing was trading the way it was (the curse and blessing of nightshift). They have a distibution deal in other words (they beat the iPhone to Asia). I will look to sell this thing quickly if red at all appears

AMZN: on fire today...however the profit taker sell off have seemingly dragged the rest of tech down in afterhours. if the buyers comeback on AMZN being cheap then it could be a nice day for everyone... in the end AMZN didnʻt meet the "whisper" numbers...

BRCM: disappointing Q. hence my incredibly low risk position. sat on this thing where i shouldʻve sold prior to report. Iʻm hoping that they too donʻt drag the bunch down.

VMW: the stock keeps trading in itʻs 98 to 105 range. waiting for direction after earnings tomorrow. doesnʻt matter what it does prior to earnings report... the action comes after. i will look for some puts @ 80. wish i did so before the market closed today and hope it actually zeros out...

SNCR: I think they will suprise everyone (me included) in one way or another. I will strictly hold my calls w/no puts. own 1 contract. hows that for confidence?

Predictions? AMZN will make a comeback in late trading...
Note: BIDU is an ATM....king of option action! if it goes 10% green one day...hey get a far out put...& visa versa. tho decidedly trending canʻt go wrong!!! just set them triggers everyday...

I have more important things to tend to at this point

Early Pop fades

I should learn by now that the pent up buyers would bid up the calls that settle. I watched my Nov180calls(bot@7.3 to 7.6s) were as high up as 13.7. that's a 80% gain my friends.

So, set your trigger next time an blow up in earnings come along. profit is a profit but i'm getting tired of missing these things. i guess i just don't want to miss the total upside. it may very well track that way the rest of this day...

Monday, October 22, 2007


AAPL handily beats earnings AND actually guided next Q higher than analysts!

It relieves my dumb move of buying into the Nov180calls too early. It sank in front of my eyes about the time i noticed it usually settles (about 10:30 -11 am EST). Got in @7.3 & 7.6 tho a half hour later i saw it @ 6.5...

So, the historical pattern for AAPL is the next 2 trading days will be huge!!! usually followed by profit taking. But with the guidance they gave they'll get to 200 well before December (man i sure was staring at those Short-term, i'm getting out on Wednesday or maybe place a trigger on Thursday. I will buy dips and sell quickly, with plans to buy Dec calls. From here, i am circling Jan for MacWorld...the annual stock pop... For now, the market environment will temper my buying.

On my "call" board this week are :
BRCM(23rd): who cares about this Q, guidance that includes their new chip that will be in all mobile fones that matter (iPhone, BBerrys, N series, etc) is what i'm looking at...if it dips go long...
VMW(24th): toss up. it's had a run up to this point but was shot down last tuesday...knife anyone? i will take my knife loss if earnings disappoint.
SNCR(25th): with the AAPL report 1.39 iPhones bodes well, but how many were actually activated with At&T? If they're involved w/the european telcos they'll be fine.

Oh one last thing...I can't stand Scottrade, this is the final straw... It's a good thing i have ameritrade... I will say hello shortly to Zecco for trading, while i use Ameritrade's tools. I mean c'mon 10 free trades a month and options ($4.50 + .50/contract), no that's how u make $$$ cut costs.

AAPL Pre-Earnings/ After Market Hype

This is similar to RIMM earnings. The buyers are bumping AAPL past $12 as i type this

Eureka! Iʻm Dumb...

Just looking at VMW today... which i hold Nov130calls (an earlier post reads panic buy)...

I just realized this thing would be stuck right about in the 98 to 102 range... and everyone is trading around it. i donʻt know what VMW will have to do in its earnings to blast this stock up again. But had i paid attention i would have sold this puppy when it failed to break 105 on Tuesday... itʻs a tough lesson learned as a result of a falling knife...

Good Read...

Read up on this dude, "Options Addict". And he summarized in a better how iʻd like to trade one day...

" I try to put myself in a position where I don't care about the market. When I start my day every morning, I don't run to see what the market is doing, I run to see what my account is doing. I try to put the market in position where it is irrelevant to my account."

Stucktrader interprets: cover your butt

"I like to play things somewhat safe with my accounts. I stay diversified at all times, and always have a hedge against the market and or my account positions....always hedge with other instruments, [for example GLD], specifically S&P Futures (Short), Crude Futures (long), and added to some Index puts on the Nasdaq (small position)"

Stucktrader interprets: cover your butt

"dollar cost averaged in only the best deals available"

Stucktrader interprets: find stuff thatʻs cheap and arenʻt as volatile
And hereʻs his wise outline for us dummyʻs to follow... iʻve actually done most of it...and iʻve numbered for myself...

1) Risk management- Plan your loss before planning your profit.
2)Diversification- Be bullish, be bearish, be involved in various groups/markets.
3)Proper Position Sizing- Trade small, trade safe.
4)Effective Trading Plan- Make sure your plan works, and/or makes money.
5)Cutting Losses Short- Enter a trade that offers a small loss.
6)Letting Winners Run- Don't kill your winners.
7)Curbing Your Emotion- This is a bi product of trading small.

Stucktrader interprets:
1) be ok with your risk
2) cover your butt
3) "diversification"
4) ????? my guess is make a plan and stick to it...
5) ????? buy red?
6) this doesnʻt seem to be a problem with most...
7) make sure you can sleep at night

All of this makes a lot of sense. When this day is out and i have an idea of what AAPL is gonna do for the market, i will re-examine this weekend (if not sooner) my positions and do a little fine tuning and drafting positions.

This Market is Nutz

Talk about volatility.

If u daytraded VMW, you are a genius.


I may have over-risked(if thereʻs such a word) in going all in on calls in Nov versus spreading it to Dec and Jan. Part of it of course has to do with Scottrade being straight up stock.

Going forward i have to go with the gut...which doesnʻt feel very good. But unlike my trek in VMW, i have found AAPL a little more predictable. However:

"Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are looking for Apple will earn $0.86 per share on $6.07 billion in revenue for the quarter, compared to a profit of $0.62 per share on $4.84 billion in revenue in the year ago quarter."

Apple pegged this Q to be $.65/share. now talk about expectations. the miracle number would be $1. but disaster would be anything less than $.86.

I really hope my insurance doesnʻt have to come into play til the end of the week, if at all i hope it zeros out.

Mentally Retarded @ Mid-Morning

like a dummy i got in my AAPL calls at the top of the midmorning (fearing a runaway miss) but alas, i should know better. the only good news regarding that is that my puts were bought shortly thereafter.

iʻm admitting to yet another example of emotional trading. the green blips lured me to buy.

the market doesnʻt have alot of smiling faces. thus far. i agonizingly wait for AAPLʻs earnings... and i fear their guidance for the current Q to be far too conservative.

Calls to mind my saying "I will not touch AAPL til January at the earliest". Oh well...

(added later) bot: Nov180calls@7.3 & 7.6

Ugly Open

VMW: the purpose of this site was that positions like these would be something of the past. i watched the market open and saw VMW call position negative 90%! granted iʻve been waiting to clear this thing. now itʻs in no manʻs land

AAPL: has indeed been the savior of my portfolio. and i continue to hate Scottrade for keeping me out of my options account. so i settled for stock action. this account will now surely go to Zecco. I canʻt say enough how much i hate Scottrade!

RIMM, SNCR, BRCM, etc will all depend on AAPL.

I wanted to add SNDK, but i read they came out with this dumb idea of hooking up their cards to a hub for TVs. that totally turned me off. the stock itself is up nice as it deserves. solid Q.

instead of throwing some $ at SNDK, i bought insurance for AAPL position Nov150 puts. i hope itʻs not too far out if there is a sell off. nonetheless itʻs there to save a catastrophy from happening.

Sunday, October 21, 2007

What's Going Down?

Hopefully NOT AAPL. I'm looking to spread the wealth. Calls all over the place: Nov170(existing), wanting to add: Nov180, then Jan170, maybe protect downside.

In any case, there has been nothing but increasing market-share #s and suprisingly high iPod sales through analyst spot-checking. holiday buying is starting early. Not too mention Very brisk OS X Leopard sales...

VMW: it's run has staggered. i'm hoping to cut my loses.
RIMM: it'll make a come-back, no doubt.
SNCR: as iPhone goes, they go...

SNDK: they got pounded. i'm looking at Jan42.5calls & Apr42.5calls. there is no way they don't sell a bunch of stuf for the holidays. no emotional trading here, just plain logic

Saturday, October 20, 2007

Waiting AAPL...The savior of Tech...

If i could read the market, sure i wouldʻv sold Thursday... even closed my positions on my losers (some of which i did...STV).

The market on monday will be about one company...AAPL... even if iPods donʻt meet expectations... iPhone revenue sharing with AT&T will help numbers. But the biggest number people are going to see involve Macs - specifically MacBooks. I keep seeing them at starbucks, the mall, anywhere that has WIFI.

VMW: wish i closed this position. i only hope it follows AAPLʻs lead
RIMM: it will move higher. tho i wish i cashed out on green also. this is not a good time to be in the market. take the greens when you can. If they come out w/a touchscreen version, then - back in your truck...
SNCR: they benefit from iPhone (legal) activations - enuf said
BRCM: they showed the future. and their guidance is what i think will blow people away.

i will add SNDK to the list. they were shot down. big time with their guidance, which i think will be blown out of the water...

PALM: why do people keep buying these guys? iʻve bought enuf puts in them. Centro? puleez. iPhone & BBerrys, not to mention LG & Samsung all have phones that blow Palm away.

Thursday, October 18, 2007


Thereʻs enuf Tech news today that will move my portfolio...So, iʻve relegated myself to let the market decide. Tho iʻm now looking at chinese indexes & little known stocks, iʻm for the most part taking a wait and see with my positions

i am looking at taking a loss on STV. a throwing it @AAPL for mondays earnings 75% calls/25%puts just out of the strike november OR just plain deep in the money.


I have missed so much of the chinese stocks that i decided to at least put up a watchlist.
FXI & PGJ: ETF... we can use as our index for calls
FNI: ETF china and india...
CBAK: rechargable batteries
SVA: sinovac biotec

Wednesday, October 17, 2007


Initial gains were flattenned but rallied by the end of the day.

tomorrow, more tech in your face...

I wanted so badly to get in on GOOG & SNDK... but really, staying out could be just as satisfying as meeting or beating will lead my portfolio higher. if GOOG just meets, then we may see some profit taking... SNDK has a solid case for the future. i will pay close attention to guidance for the holiday Q. there is no way they canʻt be making mad dough. if i see red tomorrow, i will look to go long (fundamentals say: flash will replace hard drives)

what longs do i want to add? BIDU, SNDK, GOOG... pretty obvious huh? PTR too for oil...
sheez... anything chinese that i did own, STV & XFML (thanks, i ainʻt listening to u now.) went down...

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Congrats INTC, IBM, YHOO.

They all adequately met the street's expectations. in the case of INTC, blew the doors. i thought of jumping in. but i had enough risk on the line.

So, my reward will hopefully be AAPL, RIMM, SNCR, VMW attracting buyers again... BRCM already has done that on it's own.

technicals show RIMM, SNCR, VMW, and many tech gap down to their 13 EMA and some 50 EMA. healthy for another run...

There was a time i would have panic'd. can't call directions in an exact matter.
For all i know the market could sour again.

I am looking for ENERGY plays to buffer Oil. For the immediate future, eyes continue on earnings.

Bad News to Bear

Oil is mucking up everything.

Only one thing to do. join the party...i'm hesitant as oil fluctuates quickly. based on one report... Oil can go to $100 when using inflation equation related to the 1980's.

I still believe tho that the following will have their day:
-AAPL: forget iPhone for a bit (tho this holiday it will rock). Macs are back, especially laptops. increased marketshare = $. But nothing goes green like MacWorld.
-SNCR: all those new iPhone activations must have benefited them somehow. people are forgetting these guys. who can blame them. China is $$$
-VMW: undisputed leader. some open-source and coorporate competition, but well established. is it priced into the stock already? time will tell
-BRCM: long term very good. even if earnings don't meet, the guidance and new chip will foster interest

It's still a wait and see.

Monday, October 15, 2007


I wake up and BAM! my option board bleed red... OIL spikes.

idea! late as it is
*hedge my tech w/oil (china: PTR, SNP), (U.S.: USO, X, CVX, COP)
you from here on out i will be watching OIL futures.

missed opportunity: BRCM (see earlier post)
-3G chip for i added these guys...

shouldʻv "put" Citigroup. They deserves it of course.

the only good news is that i kept myself from a tech only portfolio. disaster is what it would have been the last 3 trading days...

i will say that TECH will make a comeback IF... INTC, YHOO and the rest report $$$.

VMW: i risked way too much on these guys...
RIMM: wondering if the momentums over til next Q
AAPL: blow out is what weʻre hoping. Analyst are keeping this stock from falling as the rest.
BRCM: meager Nov45call@.80 it may be a bargain. but iʻm keeping myself in check.

preview of the week... IPO...

Mondays are usually buy days... i hope...

IPO watch another Chinese company: LFT Longtop Financial Technologies.

Tech earnings will affect my portfolio.

time to sleep...

Friday, October 12, 2007

Some Relief

Eco report was adequate to bring buyers back in...

AAPL: bot Nov170calls
RIMM: bot Nov155calls

VMW: holding Nov130&155calls(hoping to make back losses)... i may get out of 155calls if it goes red next week. i definitely have buyers regret. today wudv bin a good day to buy.

bot XFML (a chinese finance company). earnings Nov15

briefly looked at JASO (a chinese solar co.) and just missed a pop in the process

If INTC/IBM/YHOO can meet or beat expectations on Tuesday, then weʻre off to the races again.

Thursday, October 11, 2007


Well, talk about a hammering. I went from being up 17% to being down 18%(and counting). Some contracts were up 200% just today!!!

Wish i stayed out. Waiting makes money. If anything the end of this day was a good time to buy. I will be out on these positions if they donʻt recover come Monday

I traded in and out of VMW. daytraded without intending to. initially i stayed out. but i must say that i knives were what i caught...

i did a good job of trading out of RIMM & AAPL while in the green.

-temper new highs with "put" protection.
-only invest principle...
-do NOT try to catch the bottom (falling knife).
-ALWAYS set your sell triggers parameters

again...take that 150% gain via triggers donʻt ask questions...

i wonder if the China stuff is done...
wait for Monday...


Well, talk about a hammering. I went from being up 17% to being down 18%(and counting). Some contracts were up 200% just today!!!

Wish i stayed out. Waiting makes money. If anything the end of this day was a good time to buy. I will be out on these positions if they donʻt recover come Monday

I traded in and out of VMW. daytraded without intending to. initially i stayed out. but i must say that i knives were what i caught...

-temper new highs with "put" protection.
-only invest principle...
-do NOT try to catch the bottom (falling knife).
-ALWAYS set your sell triggers parameters

again...take that 150% gain donʻt ask questions...

i wonder if the China stuff is done...
wait for Monday...


VMW: As I woke up to my account 7am HST. I saw a huge gain. looked around a bit and within minutes missed 80% one day gain

RIMM: Itʻs down today but the contracts were green. i didnʻt want to wait around for a loss.

AAPL: Took a 15%-20% gain for the day.

SNCR: No action here, so holding.

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Recognizing Errors. Seize opportunities

RIMM: sold Nov130calls@2.37 then bought again @3.00! itʻs annoying to not trust my instincts. leave it alone! if anything i shoulda bought more

VMW: sold Nov105calls@11 and bought Nov125calls@4.5 theyʻre the farthest calls out of the money i could get. and it looks like itʻs getting there. the sad part is 100 was a shoe-in for this company itʻs Jan140calls were .65 now itʻs 5.5!

SNCR: joins the party. bought Nov50call@2.9

STV: sold a bunch at a small loss to get in on calls.

Warning: Retail numbers this Friday, Retail and PPI report at 830am. So this thursday could be a buying op prior to numbers if youʻre confident. Either way, i may buy friday again... with hopes of a pop on monday, tho Citigroup report could be trouble.


profit takers are everywhere today. expected by many. i failed to take advantage.

RIMM: SOLD all calls. tho waiting for next green arrow. (watching for Eco data)
STV: Bought. initially sold off. but it's a hold. didn't panic sell (yet). it seems to be looking for direction.

VMW: Hold.
AAPL: I'm holding on here. tho i did wish i waited as planned for Friday. Still there's good news leaking out on their 4th Q

Panic Buy

Pre-market usually spook me. Sentiment is still bullish. I could have maximized my positions by sitting on the side yesterday after selling my positions... sellers regret w/ GS haunt me.

i AGAIN experieced classic emotional trading
-AAPL: should've waited for late thursday or friday
-RIMM: it could go lower, but i couldn't ignore it being down $2+

-VMW: got ways to go up prior to earnings...any big down day, buy...
-STV: maybe i should've put it all here, but alas diversification

Lesson: You can make money by waiting.

Tuesday, October 9, 2007


It seems as tho there are a few who want to depress the tech stocks ( again). i still think thereʻs room to grow tho they are "high flyers"

AAPL: w/earnings coming up. news of Leopard & speculating on iPod/iPhone sales will hopefully push things higher. it was flat today and could go lower. i may need to add puts to protect my gains. but i think itʻll start green all over again come next week.

RIMM: definite profit taking. charts show there are dips that last just a day or up to 3 days. iʻm wondering if i shouldʻve been more conservative if it starts red tomorrow.

VMW: Wall St itself doesnʻt know what to expect from these guys.

STV: everything from China goes up... iʻm just following that trend

Before the Bell...BUY!

CNBC said that FED wonʻt really affect stocks negatively. they were right. tho they failed to mention how much of a rally that would result. w/ that in mind...

GS: wow. talk about missing a big one. i sold 1034am (before the FED). it could have gone either way...*sigh* Had i looked at the chart prior to 2pm or at least waited for 11am to come around i might have held on...missed 125% gain

RIMM: back in. lots of profit takin (including me)
VMW: moved Jan90 to Nov105. wish i did in the money closer to expiration
AAPL: back in. moved from Nov155 to Nov170. There is building momentum.

LESSON: check your charts/techni for momentum.(thx GS)

Another Humbling Experience

STV: i pretty much bought it at the top. i chased it... when i shouldʻve let the market settle. itʻs still a good pick going forward, but checking out the market before buying is a good idea. the only saving grace here is that itʻs another chinese stock

Lesson: wait for initial highs to come down b4 buying, also sell initial highs of the day if thereʻs alot of pre-market action. it will settle down.

Stick to the Plan...Man!

RIMM: remember how i was supposed to sell it on Monday. i was right. at least my gain tho not at it's peak soothed my timing.

so, where are the buyers? here!

VMW: Do not touch. it's gaining attention.

STV: it's kinda my hedge when US market stinks. wish i planted those RIMM call $ here... i'm buying more while it's on FIRE!... i'll get more towards the end of the session. hopefully, it opens big tomorrow.

Another rate cut would suprise me. So, i'm not expecting it. I got 1/3 my position in outside securities to keep gains (and maybe add to it). If the market likes what the FED says, i'll be getting back into AAPL, and hopefully ride this to 170+, if not, I will wait til late Thursday or Friday morning to get more AAPL in the $ calls


RIMM: pre-market looked good. but that was it. first sign of red, sold all my RIMM. is this just a dip before FED @ 2pm EST? maybe. i'm looking at Nov160calls if this dip continues

AAPL: strong start. jus missed an extra 15% gain. sold...

GS: sold...small loss. throwing it @ STV

where are the buyers? here...

VMW: Do not touch. it's gaining attention.

STV: moving faster than my calls. buying more... it's kinda my hedge when US market stinks. wish i switched out faster...


AAPL: may look to add more in the $, mostly positive analyst news are accumulating. they are definitely going to pump the stock. any negative news in my view shows some late-comers wanting to get in.

RIMM: even if the bulls continue to push. there will be a break somewhere, hopefully late thursday. there pattern continues to manifest a strong openning, a lull then an afternoon rise just below peak. some predict

VMW: i'm just waiting for sell signs. may take profit and move strike higher. there have been nice dips ($2-4) followed by huge buy backs.

GS: i will look for any breakeven sell at this point. in the money would've been better. tho at the time i didn't have enough $ to get in. considering Nov230calls, but would rather throw that in AAPL for this run.

Monday, October 8, 2007


Green everywhere for my tech positions: RIMM, AAPL, VMW.

RIMM: I followed my rule on 150% gains. sold Nov120calls. If thereʻs short-term upside this week, i placed a meager Nov135call position. The potential return would offset any regret in possibly getting out early and satisfy the "i should have sold syndrome". With that in mind, I left the Nov115calls (in the money) alone for the ride.

AAPL: they report Oct 22. there will be much news before we get there. Leaving the in the money stuff alone. I donʻt work the night before so iʻll be able to think about the position that day. an opportunity awaits as blowout earnings is usually followed a day or 2 by huge dips. I will have some cash on hand for that time.

VMW: iʻm treating Jan90calls as a regular stock. they have no significant following during earnings. so this will be a test.

First "Outside" Post

Posting this from work (415am). It's way too early to do anything with my positions. I am grateful that i'm up today, since it was part of the plan. I and a buddy thot the market was closed today. Nice suprise!

Some days are just plain good. They don't happen very often. I can list 2 specific stocks of the past TIE(4/2006) & AAPL(1/2007). NOW or TODAY: RIMM & AAPL, and some VMW. My biggest gains %age wise.

RIMM: I do have some sellers remorse(sold Jan113.5calls way too early & Oct120calls tho moving the risk to Nov115 & 120 was logical). My concern involves again moving my RIMM calls. I may miss part of the ride, but i think it will pay off.

AAPL: will be on fire for today and maybe tomorrow. I have no doubt it will get to 200. In the money calls in the same month will help depress the downside, tho somewhat limit potential gains. I am thinking of putting some crazy far-out LEAP call for them when there's a huge Red day.

VMW: it doesn't have as much stock in the open market, but then again, it's under the radar. just sticking to the basic rule of diversifying. wish i was a bit more bullish on Apple instead.

PLAN: Sell RIMM positions at the end of the day & reset to different calls.(it's tempting to hold) Let AAPL & VMW ride, they're protected a bit more than RIMM.

Friday, October 5, 2007

Friday IS A Good Time To Buy!

Well, anxiety somewhat allayed. job report helped out.

RIMM: this was wut we were waiting for! aftermarket thurs spooked me.
AAPL: up today big. wants to break 160! bot Nov160calls
VMW: broke 90. Headed for 100. bot Jan90calls
BIDU: weʻll see what happens monday. iʻll risk $200 if a new call opens. the risk reward is tremendous. a friend joked itʻs headed to 500. i tend to believe him.

added STV: chinese digital TV. opened 35 IPO was 16, i bot @30.25, i actually benefited from my education. Regarding, IPOʻs i no longer get up 325am to play them. initially upside settles as the day goes. if u do wake up that early. get in wait for a peak 1 minute after your trade and sell. (if u can day trade)

Thursday, October 4, 2007


having missed the last Q earning run-up. iʻm a bit confused where this stock is going. green yes, but it wonʻt be as huge as i once hoped. It did beat analysts expectations...marginally. guidance for next quarter is good. thereʻs profit taking going on. so, what to do? wait... tomorrow will be a learning experience.

IPO list

STV: China Digital
-digital TV for China.

Stick to your plan

-AAPLseveral posts ago i told myself to wait on AAPL in January or at the earliest when earnings date is announced.
-RIMM: also told myself to wait til earnings or day before to get calls
-SNDK plan while sound, my option pick NonStandard was in the end greedy

following the plan... reassess for greed.

backtracked. repositioned loser $ at RIMM, Nov120call

plan is to get out of RIMM on the latest


Sold AAPL: Oct155calls
-got out, trending down, shoulda waited til friday to get in
Sold SNDK: (NS)Jan60calls
-didnʻt understand wut this was...wasted $170 in the process

Bought RIMM: Nov120calls
- i wonʻt be hanging around long if earnings sour.

Argh VMW: yesterdays last minute Nov85 wouldʻve pocketed $!

Wednesday, October 3, 2007


It seems Jan60call@0.35 is too cheap. screems buy. almost every phone out there is adding flash memory features (built in/slots).

update: i didnʻt realize it was a non-standard option. i really donʻt know what that means, which means i shouldnʻt have touched them. i hope i didnʻt get a complete loser. it may very well go up.

i tried to get in VMW nov85calls for a quicky...alas iʻm too slow.

"BULL" market

In light of yesterday, i have less anxiety having pared down my risk in RIMM, true i mite have cashed more dough today, but a profit is a profit. As i mentioned b4, i will sell when >150% gain even 100%. Tho i did notice Oct150calls getting alot of action. logic sez "crazy", but no 20-bagger return came without risk.

Therz a number of "bull" signs in world of options. scanning BIDU, CHL, gaming stocks(i wantd puts) that are down have call options that are flying. just for laughs i thot of buying Bidu-Oct400calls, well too bad i didnʻt iʻd be up $200+ per contract... has this b/cm a money machine?

AAPL takes a break today(better buy today than ystrdy). possibly from news of Verizon/LG with a so called iPhone-killer. donʻt they know that they have doomed themselves in labeling it as such? Also Eco data is due for friday.

GS just keeps plugging away. i would describe it as my "by the book" option for longs. i am now deciding on an exit strategy.

PALM is my dead horse. so wut did i do? add more May7.5 puts. i donʻt see them coming back. forget iPhone, Blackberrys,... even HTC and LG have fones that kick their butt. I will not add anymore puts iʻm done with them now.

RIMM reports after market closes tomorrow. I will be deciding on adding in the money calls somewhere. with some far out calls/puts.

Somewhere in the distance: SNDK is common sense Long!

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Panic Buy? part 2

Well, i couldnʻt take it anymore.
-sold RIMM oct120call
-bot AAPL oct155call I.T.M.

AAPL wasnʻt bothered by the housing news being worse. it really hasnʻt the whole year, sans february. it wants to take out 160. so my short-term plan, sell this thing Thursday and hope for a dip on friday.

RIMM itʻs worth noting that 120 is a little far out. the thing is recent history says, red til day of earnings, then BAM!!! this stock move 15% to 20% after report plus one day of 5 to 10%.

VMW: took off in late trading. took a peek at 89-90 range then whoah! i shouldve kept watching

anyway, my focus is primarily on RIMM.

Panic Sell? Buy?

iʻm no longer typing stuff that ainʻt immediately interesting: LEND, GME

RIMM: suddenly woke up to see it down $2.75... itʻs a miracle my oct120call still gave me $ (bought 9/19@.65... sold 1.22 - peak 1.95). the action at this call price also says people are thinking big earnings come Thursday. So, for that i left nov115. prudent trade trumps "hopeful" profit.

AAPL: staring down at these guys, waitin for dip
VMW: no doubt will blast 100, waitin patiently for red
BIDU: up 30+... chinese market close this week, but open here. someone mentioned the last time this happened, "disaster".
GS: at this rate, yes it will get to 290. $1/day. finally grabbing green.

PALM: i donʻt hate the company. really! so i added May7.5putʻ08.

of Note:
BRCM: released 12MP/HD chip for fones. enuf said.

theory. buy AAPL in the money... sell thursday.

Monday, October 1, 2007


RIMM: cʻmon give me the numbers!!!
Anxiety. Thatʻs how i describe this situation... each day wallstreet seems to feel the same, just waitinʻ especially if youʻre holding Oct calls far out as i am so... what did i learn?
HINDSIGHT: shoulda sold Oct120call prior to friday after all 150% gain? hello!!!
my moving to Nov115 calls was a good idea, albeit as i alluded to an earlier post, i shoulda done it this past friday...

AAPL: itʻs driving me nut that iʻm not in this stock... EVERYWEEK! therz a new hi, and constant upgrades. tho i know itʻs big day awaits. opportunities on the horizon. i will eyeball this stock soon.
SNCR: havenʻt followed them much really...
VMW: kickinʻ butt alright. if they whack 90 i will be on the prowl (like i shoulda wen they skied past 80.
BIDU: trending flat to down. the hype has slowed... itʻs a healthy dip. i may get in as option holders flee...

PALM: itʻs revealed!!! ha!!! i hope to get some lost funds off of dumb analyst pumping this loser. game over... iʻm lookin past Janʻ08 puts.
LEND: no sense looking at these guys til earnings. wish i didnʻt touch them.

GME: itʻs a doubt. no options here tho til november.

Plan: when the smoke clears on RIMM get out!!! if it blows expectations i will hold RIMM oct for 2 days only. Nov will be riding for a bit, and i will spray a few puts if thereʻs a 10%+ day(s). At that point i will move to AAPL.

-oct120calls (bought 9/19@.65) today:1.29 (peak 1.95)
-nov115calls (bought 9/26@4.035) today:3.2 (peak 4?)
GS: jan290 (bought 9/19@.45stop laughing) today: 0.3
PALM: jan10puts (bought8/13@.20) today: 0.15
LEND: ʻ09jan10puts (bought9/19@.32) today:0.25

stocks: GME (bot 9/26@58.82) today: 56.15

so what did i learn?
-sell them 150% gains dude
-move options of earnings month if far the following month