Thursday, May 29, 2008


Well, i made the mistake of not watching my holding again... so, in the interim i found my wishing i kept V. USO was a bad deal, as i knew it was a reach. I should have waited for my entry point which was <100.

V was such a great opportunity to strengthen my position. Sadly i didnt and sufferred the consequence.

In the end i basically erased all the gain from V, and gave it back to the street through USO.

There is still a weird feeling about oil going higher though. Yes the hype on oil did leave me worried as to whether i should even be in it.

I will re-evaluate positions by the weekend. I definitely am an investor NOT a trader.

Monday, May 26, 2008

V.... Oil... Travel

V is near a break. The next support is 75... I doubt it will dip past 70, but if it did, i would buy a few and scale from there.

Typically Memorial Day is when the annual demand for oil happens, coinciding with travel. That is what history says anyway... My only oil position includes 2 USO calls one in the money and one out.

USO, it will definitely be volatile as uncertainty exists:
1) The earthquake in China has caused questions regarding their demand for oil. At the same time, disasters in themselves cause demand in oil with the need for rebuilding infrastructure and the like. Plus, they are still having the Olympics.

2) Will they still cut rates? Doubt it. Then again who knows. The weak dollar is what has really sent Oil/Dollar ratio flying.

3) Travel within the U.S. may include families choosing to stay closer to home. So, questions of demand remain here as well. I must say there are still deals to be found if you want to fly. But they happen to all be in the Fall.

Some are already saying we ARE in a recession. Uh, yeah... we know that already. No one will be surprised to see all the stocks that recently broke to new highs get pounded. Remember, the charts basically show you whats going on. The big brokerages can only sell so many blocks at a time to maximize their profits.

My thinking is to watch USO carefully. and move it back to V if i find a nice entry. Banks are to be watched carefully as well, as they are off their lows. They may be a nice short.

Thursday, May 22, 2008

SOLD V... Bought USO

Granted my profit was smaller because my trade trigger was set in error. Either way, at least i got a modest profit to set off my losses for the year.

I wish i had these calls last week. The chart says this is just a break before it goes higher...
Bought 1 USO June120call (for a big run)
Bought 1 USO July 97call (a solid base has been formed above 100)

My timing of course is not the best... it may be the worst... who knows. All i know is oil still has some ways to go. It touched the $135. I see maybe another day it eases. But we are in the midst summer. i wouldnt be surprised that oil/barrel reaches 150 by July.

Btw, i still V will have a nice run... but wait for its earnings. and let the chart say where to go. As for now it will go sideways.

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

USO buy window closed... for now

ARGH!!! A few days ago i was looking to buy USO. The signal was it dipping below 100. Now USO calls are just running away from my buy point.

Speaking of which OIH actually went down today versus its recent trend of moving WITH oil.

V < 80 may be a sell.... or inversely for those who missed the boat. it may be a buy.

My reservations on AAPL has been right on based on the chart. It may very well be an buy if it holds at these levels prior to its Developer Conference. Otherwise when you look at the technicals, it has a long way to reach the 150 level

I have literally 2 puts.
JPM June 22.5 (old play), yet i feel it may come alive again. it has a head and shoulders and could collapse if it breaks below 40
FXI Jan50put 2009. This put got whacked as from mid-march it rallied from 125 to 160. I did expect it to some degree, but also expect (or hope) after the Olympics this thing will fall like a rock. China is facing incredible inflation and other pressures to its economy.

My main watchlist:
USO < 105 buy. Actually it may be a buy right here... thats what the chart is saying, but wait for it to go sideways a bit.
V < 80 sell
AAPL < 150 buy

If any readers out there see another security with a definite direction taking place... leave a msg.

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Again... Itʻs Timing... Especially Oil

Watching USO go up this week, as opposed to last week, was not surprising... I threw it out there. At this point, there are no "cheap" options, but the likelihood of it going up from here is a done deal... History says summer, oil up, enough said.

One stock that has been even more resistant to weakness is also oil related OIH.

The vix is showing signs of spiking... the Bears are out there ready to bank major coin on the underlying poor fundamentals of the economy. Unemployment, oil gong up, food prices remaining pricey, leads to retail numbers suffering. nevermind the inflation hanging over us...

Anyway, i may buy straight up USO securities. and maybe OIH calls.

USO >110 could be this week
V > 90 maybe next earnings, people will actually use credit cards more, flipping their debt from one company to another.
AAPL > 200 sorry, likely next year

Thursday, May 15, 2008


Well, i dont think oil has reached a ceiling. But my timing was horrible with oil going down and time decay regarding my CALL, but thats the risk of expiration week. There was weakness seen... but as i previously mentioned. it was more like insurance for me... i will look for USO to get <90 before re-entering. in fact, i wouldnt be surprised to see it spike again next week. we will see.

I know a few who have shorts in USO (namely Tim). so congrats to all of u... the affects of oil down also caused
FSLR to go negative was definitely due anyway. also the fact that FSLR had consecutive bullish days with the market staying neutral during the same time period

As for V. it has definitely found itself stagnant or signs of consolidation, setting up a solid base to build on. It has bumped into 90 but has failed on to break through. However, when it does... it may be a good time to buy some Calls. Patience is in order.

The same can be said for AAPL. 202.96, we will just say 203 is where you would enter.

Gio mentioned UA 60 by next year... very possible. They have been gaining market share and well, they have been marketing... they have shoes i might add. Very good margins if they gain popularity beyond the pro athlete. Its the staple for NKE... Shoes that cost $10 to make $5 to ship/package, then marked up $60-150. nice. they are winning minds in football and somewhat in track. But B-ball is where the luxury priced shoe sells, and as yet they have no marquee name there (yet).

the finance sector looks like weak... i have one old put in JPM. thats about it. its in the red, but i have a feeling i will be able to cut losses next month

Alright... another boring day for me... but being watchful will hopefully help me not miss opportunities that come in the form of VMW & SNCR puts. Both were no brainers but i failed to keep the dates in mind.

V >90,
AAPL >203(calls) and timed puts a day or 2 after their developer conference where iPhone 2.0 is expected to be released.
USO <90.

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

OIL's Power over the street

So, it seems oil backs off its highs near $127. The sentiment on the street is that it has reached a ceiling. Maybe, short-term. in fact there are a number shorting USO as we speak today. So my $30 spec call will either be worthless or rewarding at weeks end.

The street is propaganding (if thats a word) that Oil is what getting in the way of bulls. Thus, the sell off in oil today. Some forgot that it primarily was the weak dollar that has caused the price of Oil to this point.

So oil related is down, as well as Ags. Most other blue chips are up... notables:

1) FSLR has kept above it's breakout move yesterday.

2) AAPL continues to march to its 52 wk hi. As i mentioned previously, i will not touch any calls until it crosses 200. looking at technicals... it was a buy back on March 22/23 @135 (crossing 50 day MA) AND again a month later April 21 @160 after it initially dipped below the 200 day MA. But it's all hindsight. I still remember it back on Feb option expiration day <120. i thought it was cheap... i was right, but i was wounded too many times by AAPL.

3) RIMM, after yesterday, i thought this thing would stay stuck under 140. nope. it maintains its high (post the last 3:1 split)

I sit back letting it V ride as it is up nice today. i guess i can view USO as insurance.

Monday, May 12, 2008

Another RIMM passed me by

My buddy brian called me last night to ask me about RIMM with the release of the Blacberry 9000 today. He bought May135calls and banked some nice change today. i dunno if he held it for the whole trading day, but it kept itʻs moment throughout with a slight tapering off itʻs highs.

Itʻs definitely a nice phone. being that i use a Pearl, i may very well end up with the 9000. btw, RIMM renamed this thing the Blackberry Bold 9000. Bold? Anyway, itʻs a 3G phone, higher rez, zoom camera, more multimedia friendly, GPS and 1 GB of memory on board. And they started a fund to get software dudes to build more apps for them.

Their announcement was necessary too, being that AAPL will soon release iPhone 2.0. They will formally have 3G, enterprise level email/networking (like blackberrys), SDK finalized to allow apps anywhere from biz to games. I dont think they will have built in GPS yet tho. I dont think AAPL will say much more than they did back in March. I think where they can surprise everyone is the price.

RIMM had a good day today. I did tell brian RIMM could go either way. In the end i think iPhone will surpass Blackberrys outside the U.S. That dumb deal with AT&T is actually hampering AAPL. The 9000 will not be out til the summer... Hmm just about the time iPhone 2.0/3G will be widely available.

I will touch AAPL only if it crosses 200. I have my V (negative today). And have added USO May105call@.30 on itʻs pull back. it may have reached a temporary ceiling or may be setting up for a small bounce.

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Missed Bear opportunity... yet V continues

SNCR got whacked today. May puts were like a lotto, but no one cant say they didnt see it coming. If anything everyone is concerned with bigger dogs.

V surprisingly up today. MA, DFS, AXP were all down. In any case i am not complaining, but at the same time, it makes me have doubts as to where it goes from here. But it is apparent that V <100 is considered value.

I am itching to get into USO on a big dip. But V apparently is still a winner...

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

HUH?... Green Days Continue ON BAD NEWS

Well, FNM loses what, billion bucks and goes green?

This is all a set-up. Granted i am definitely happy to see V go up along for the ride (nearly 50% gain). But i dont expect this summer to be this UNLOGICAL. The big brokers are doing a major fake-out. The underlying market, world economy is sinking and yet the street is telling us otherwise. And boy the OIH thing i tried was sure a waste of $

The stocks on my radar are ones with high volume and great fundamentals:
1) MA & V - people will never stop using credit cards. Get ready for V to really push in China during the Olympics. MA tho still has greater growth prospects than V. V is just finding buyers who see value relative to MAs price

2) USO (not a company, but a great mimicʻr of oil). I may place a call on expiration week (when itʻs dirt cheap). See for yourself. Itʻs when $20 can turn into $120 in a hurry. In the end i lean to safety in straight up stocks

3) AAPL - its a tough economy for tech. but Apples cool-factor wins them customers. iPhone 3G with now multi exclusive partners in some European countries is a Great thing. But do not even look at it until it touches 200. Then do a strangle. The company is handily beating its competition on the PC front & will only have Blackberrys to battle the future of mobile phones.

Gio has posted nice shorts of late, namely irbt. i like robot vacuums, hope to get one someday. But the stock stinks.

In the end, I dont trust the Street... they are luring buyers back in... all to short them/sell them out

Thursday, May 1, 2008

Patience Over Greed...

Its too early to say based on my last post, "Well, That didn't work...", MAYBE, it did work... I dont know at this point. I am just trying to stay disciplined. Cover my bases.

So, whats going on...
V is still trending up. My May100call may be in reach, but i have some cheap puts if disaster happens

OIH May put may take time to find a solid green sans commissions. Nonetheless, big bull run and strengthening of the dollar would be bad for oil... and OIH which continually bumps into resistance. I will not call a top. Whoever does that usually pays

FSLR got pounded today...Ags are just slightly down. I am happy i no longer am involved in either. The $ may be switching to other sectors. But i still believe oil will be up further in the summer. History doesnt lie. In fact, i may buy some USO if it crashed to the 70s.

Anyway, AAPL (my other favorite outside of V) is killing as it did last time this year. I have no doubt it will be worth getting back in when the charts show it building a base past 200. Let the chart decide. The 3G iPhone and new apps due out in June AND the possible selling price in the $200's may gain blackberry switchers(i dont remember anyone else coining the term, but its basically like windows switchers)