Friday, October 23, 2009

Friday, September 11, 2009

Finally, what the combination smartphone that I have been talking about

Motorola finally figured out that they should give Android some love.

Android needs a phone maker that has design expertise and the ability to produce a sleek phone while incorporating the O.S.

Check it out

anyway, the iPhone is still hands down the best... i already believe that Apple has a successor to the iPhone 3GS... if you studied their product roadmaps regarding the iPods, you will notice just enough 'new' features and enhancements at either the same or slightly lower price points... Apple probably already has a 'super' smartphone - but why release it when the competition is still catching up to the original iPhone 3G or even in some cases the original iPhone.

But as long as AT&T is in the mix... i refuse to jump ship. i mean common, $30 data plan?

By the way... it looks like DUG will have difficulty as long as the $U.S. keeps sinking. thus, i do believe that FXP, SKF is a better. The unemployment mixed with inflation... big time trouble awaits. the crash may not be as quick as the Fall 2008, but it will be pretty close... and likely BIGGER...

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Consumer confidence... propanganda'd up...

Consumers are finding confidence in continuing to spend. Granted it seems finally common sense has entered the picture.

Yet we see these incredible deals when it comes to starting a new credit card...

Look this economy is not in reality getting better. Its true that the bear crashes of the last year and half or so were over-reaction, but reflect the fact that there are tons of people out there with no jobs... homeless... collecting from a govt that is broke.

In Hawaii, 1 of 11... collect food stamps... WHAT? yes 1 of every 11 persons supposedly collect food stamps in Hawaii. That is just another example where the govt is already trying to increase taxes to make up for lost income... but the conundrum(spelling?) is that citizens are using more govt resources than ever before. Somethings gotta give.

Now its not like i like seeing a bunch of homeless/jobless people around. There are people who lost pretty well paying jobs and have 3 kids, a mortgage and car payments.

In the end.. I continue to keep my life simple... and pay of debt as quickly as i can without cutting into having a 'normal' life.

DUG/FXP are still on the radar. it briefly played with trying to fall below 15 today. Nope... The oil rally may at the very least be sputtering. I have a few $ to get some long calls on DUG. S&P may very well get to 1300... but beyond that? i really doubt it. So, i am happy for the slow crawl on this rally. just to allow me more time to be a fool and jump back in the market with the few $.

Friday, August 21, 2009


Another day... another bear rally... another "we are close to getting out of the recession" speech...

well, i officially will have another loan paid off before months end.

DUG as i have been pushing just dipped below 16. I wish i had $ to buy some... but hey i am in no rush.

A buddy of mine is busy making coin... follow him at

I have neither the discipline nor the attention span to keep up with him.

Anyway, my wife found a few old papers... among them my original purchase of AAPL @20.14 sometime in 1998. of course my history of trying to make up for the fact that i didnt understand how much more $ i could have made from 2004 to Jan 2006 using options. Thus, i sold off my precious shares to enter option calls instead. And... there was my ultimate failure. Entering a trade(s) that i didnt fully understand. Some of this was Greed(who wouldnt want to semi-retirement) and some was just plain finding a fast way to pay off a few loans after getting married, her school loans and my dumb credit loan i thought i could use to leverage a trade. At least the ring/wedding/honeymoon were all paid off this year.

In the end, i still made thousands... and lost them as well. And as this market has taught me... there really is no rush to get back in until i clear up whatever loans we have. that right there will save me a hundred or so alone per month. So, there you go. Preservation...

And I still believe we have another bear window nearing (thus my love for DUG/FXP etc). You cant convince me that unemployment going forward will improve... (of course they could if these people would humble themselves and take lower paying jobs).

This was a long-winded blog. figured i get it all out. hey maybe DUG can get under $15 (52 wk low was $15)! Again if i only had free capital. The one bull stock? *sigh* AAPL. The one bull sector? alternative energy (one day this Obama friendly sector will be back... for now oil still rules)

Wednesday, August 19, 2009


Well, u know i been pushing DUG. But the entry i was originally looking for is <16.

As you see in my last post... i thought maybe 16 was the entry... Maybe it still is? For me, i thought with Asia getting whacked - that DUG would have been sky high (sans the oil surprise supply report). The funny thing is what that report tells me is that Americans are still in denial...

No longer is there panic, but just the mentality that - o.k. if cash for clunkers, printing $US AND bail outs(now via private sector) are continuing... why should i worry.

So, anyway... while i sit back and pay off whatever debts that my wife and i have, i am totally amused how this Market is messing with the minds of bunch of traders.

Again... i am in no rush... this pinball market will still be there when i am ready.

Enjoy the see-saw...
Of course for those of you benefiting from playing both sides, you should be up mightily from the last few days alone.

Monday, August 17, 2009

Wish you bought DUG huh... or any short...

Well, you can think of this a couple ways regarding oil... being that it is seasonal. However, you will have to pay close attention to those hurricanes.

DUG was a buy @$16-ish

Now those monthly oil/energy trusts look mighty cheap... AAV, HTE, etc... i am not sure how much longer they can make the monthly payouts, but if you wanted a 1st entry... you got it today.

I just see some see-sawing for now. But WE ALL KNOW, that the bottom will fall out from under us again... when? who knows. i am just plugging along paying off debt.

The Market will always be there... and so will the opportunities. But if i want a guaranteed way of making $$$$... well, i best start with cutting ALL loses... no more paying loan interests... a few hundred in cutting costs goes a long way in this economy. And why not make my credit score look better. After all, i may need another loan in the future... not what i want necessarily - just being ready it comes.


Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Well... The Wait Continues...

I really dont mind waiting being that i have no free $$$$ to invest. I am busy paying off debt as fast as i can... without working too much at my stressful REAL job.

In any case, i am already wanting to get off the rock again... Why? Well, my 2 1/2 days in Paris wasn't very relaxing - my wife and i were rushing from Musuem to landmark and at times didn't have as much time to enjoy dinner. Either way, Paris is possibe some time next year. I hope the next crash happens (sorry 401K holders), and that way cheap air fares, hotels at 50% off and a better exchange rate.

My wife thinks i should have gotten enough of Europe - she wants me to experience Asia. Speaking of which... i do think they (China that is), is due for some trouble.

It just feels like the unemployment really hasnt hit this country yet. These banks reporting profits are basically reporting whatever little $ they are making after the U.S. tax payer has been paying off THEIR bills.

The charts show we still have some gains left in this bear rally. that 1050 on the S&P is still plausible... if anything, a big move awaits. And the only one I really like has seasonal history and charts showing that some buying action is picking up... in DUG. I would like it under 15. Of course, the charts show it has bounced off 15 a few timnes. In the end, I really have no idea where this market is going for the rest of 2009.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

I'm BAAAACK... But will I really get back in..

Well, i decided a couple of days ago to see what that AAPL - China Unicom would do for our NDX... nothing...

Today, MSFT - YHOO deal... nothing...

Looked at a seasonal pick... DUG... as summer break is basically over. it's bounced off 15s solidly... and today broke 17. Much of it has to do with the dollar of course.

I am looking at FXP & DUG.. SKF... you know the big bears are back. I still have FAZ in my pocket portfolio. which is almost worthless. In any case, I was looking at option calls on FXP/DUG/SKF. But as you know this bear rally feels like it has one last gasp before things get suicidal (not for me of course)...

I have basically been paying off debt... plus i just got back from Europe July 16. So, i obviously had no care regarding the market.

I still see the S&P trying to get to 1000 (the Fib exists in the 985/1050 range). And many are pointing to 10K on the Dow. Me thinks not...

Anyway, I am back... a richer for cutting down my finance charges... but poorer for the year for getting swindled in this market... Am I a sucker if I come back to it with my limited time and limited patience?

Monday, June 15, 2009

*Sigh* The Market Continues to be Manipulated

Well... Reports surface that Apples new iPhone G3-S, pre-order units sold out! But as you know the market is down today. Dont get me wrong i totally want my bear position to get back in play...

I do foresee (like many others), that Apple will open up the iPhone to Verizon at the very least. They have the leverage to prove that the iPhone will retain customers. They can always threaten to remove the phone from any carrier if they dont comply in some way.

Apple also finally dropped prices across the board for their laptops. That gives you a HUGE indication of where they think this economy is going in the next few months/quarters. I hope they do the same for the desktops as well. (I want to buy my wife an iMac and hopefully a cheaper 24 inch will lead to covering the cost of VMware Fusion - *sigh* Windows still required)

Anyway, i have a sleeping put that will expire in July...hopefully it catches fire by then. It acts more as an insurance policy in that portfolio. I still have FAZ sitting around as well in another portfolio. So... thats it...

Europe awaits in about 3 weeks... so who cares what happens to the market while i am away...

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

MSFT... xBOX...PROJECT NATAL Impressive...

MSFT finally has something "Apple-ish".

They weren't the first to develop the "Minority Report-like" interface... But the demo was very impressive. Sony had something similar called "eye-toy". But several observers have mentioned that Natal is more comprehensive and incorporates voice command.

The fact is there was are still questions:
1) nothing about how much this upgrade or addition to an existing xBox will cost
2) the SDK is still in the works

However, MSFT was right to present this now... it doesn't seem like the Vaporware of the past. The thing is this Natal thing MUST be accurate for gameplay.

In the end, MSFT doesn't hold a patent on this, although they seem ahead of the competition, as was evident by their apparently surprising the rest of the gaming world. So, we shall see how quickly the competition moves to catch or surpass what MSFT is offering.

And the rumors of Apple releasing a gaming device? Sorry to disappoint, but I think it is basically the iPod touch. But knowing how Apple works it's R&D they too could blow us away soon at the WWDC next week.

S&P still on course to 1100.

Bears lie in wait... S&P continues toward 1100

Well, I have no position worth mentioning except my short position that awaits another crash. However, it seems as though this will not happen until the fall.

if it happens earlier... fine. If not, I am waiting with some cash sitting cautiously.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009


well, retail numbers were worse than expected... and guess what. The market actually LOGICALLY reacted to the news NOT ignored it.

I was a bit bummed that i didnt pay more attention to TAN. Should have sold it at 10. I end up breaking even... despite this last huge rally. Safe to say I will not use TAN as an energy play again - unless volume get >1.5M... which i have never seen.

I used the proceeds of TAN to get some M puts that expire in 2 days. The market will be tested from here on out and may look for a bottom faster than I anticipated. I was thinking the S&P would get up to 1050. That might not be the case.

Thus, if the market finally decides to head lower according to news and NOT Govt hype, then my portfolio will be resurrected (as I thought it would)

Twitter was down for maintenance today, so there are a bunch of people who are probably lost. I for one only publish if i have an actual trade.


Monday, May 11, 2009

Hurry Up to 1050 will you!!!

S&P continues its upward rally to 1050. Monday again was pull back day/dip buying day. So what else is new?

I just want this market to spike up to 1050 already... being that most of my portfolio sits on the short end.

Alas, my staying to cash prior to FAZ moving from 17-22 in 2 days would have been more prudent, yes? That was some time ago. In fact, I recall Tim of all people talking about this move on the S&P to 1050 before most if not anyone else. I believed him until that dumb FAZ buy... Anyway, my portfolio will continue to haunt me. I have no doubt it will resurrect itself once more.

Some are talking about a 10-20% correction is in the works. Personally, I think maybe a bigger correction, BUT with a huge bear rally of all rallies. And at that time I will commit.... hmm 50%... that would be my diplomatic answer. I have been caught too many times in the wrong direction, and it kills me when I was in the right direction to begin with. HEDGING has never been my strong suit, but in the end, it is a requirement.

See you all @1050 or maybe 1100.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Mondays have been bear days/dip buying... AAPL reports soon.

So, here i am watching all this stuff unfold and i am stuck on the sideline AGAIN!!!

The basic pattern for the last month or so is...
Friday: take profits friday and hedge big with shorts/puts.
Monday: sell puts with a small block to buy bear ETFs on any bounces.
Tues-Thursday: watch your Longs make $$$$.

So, what else is new?
Well, if Tuesday doesnt sell off, then dont expect anything changing from the pattern i just mentioned.

What i learned?
ALWAYS have something ready when this kind of action happens. Inevitably patience wins out... Look at my old posts and see where i benefitted from waiting with a planned exit. But when i just bought with the long view of holding (knowing the next bear crash could come any day... or so i thought like many.), i got pounded to bits.

Anyway, it looks like we will open green Tuesday... any close that stays green heavily ways in the Bulls favor.

One more thing... AAPL reports wednesday - its earnings could totally throw things outta whack... for bears or bulls... stay tuned.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Exchange Rates....

Well, i am looking at Euro vs. $US. Interesting how the $US as nearly 80% versus the Euro. A couple years back on my honeymoon it more like $1 = .67ish Euros. Horrible exchange. But with the US Govt printing money to cover the credit side of things, i better get me a good exchange now.

Its funny how i am treating this exchange thing for my European trip much as i would a traded stock (i dont do FOREX). This year the $US versus Euro has ranged from .75 to .79+. Last year .63 to .78

Following older data it seems that the $US strength really follows the strength of the market. Interesting... Thus, i am thinking that i may need to get a 1/2 position now, as we know a crash may soon be upon us, with another rally to follow.

Of course, the bears will be back, but it may take until 2010 for that to happen. Man, i wished i just bought long term-puts on FAS and FAZ instead....

Monday, April 13, 2009

*sarcasm* North Korea says they will still make bomb-grade plutonium... Market will go up Right?

This market is mental... N.Korea "...we will [keep doing what we want]..."

So far lets see how things have been working out.

Banks that have been bailed out somehow claim a profit! - market up
The unemployment numbers have trended up, but not as bad as thought - market up
Houses not sold at record numbers - market up
North Korea?... Whadda ya think? Market up...

Pay your taxes Wednesday... i filled an extension, maybe i shouldnt, since the govʻt OWES ME money. Anyway, i just gotta hand it off to my CPA and thats it.

Hey, i just got a hang nail!!!... MARKET UP...

Excuse the sarcasm, but this bear rally (though not unexpected) annoys me.

Wake Me Up When This Smokescreen is over...

Obama did his job in boosting the market. Thanks man, my portfolio thought you were going to say those things early on in January. What happened? I was totally long. I then switched to shorting and made up some loss $$$$. But in the end all this talk of "hope" is empty until we see a true reversal of the unemployment numbers.

Anyway, the technicals say we may be headed to 1050... Again... Hello, i thought all this stuff was going to happen 2 weeks ago when i was to cash. And waited patiently for an entry to FAZ while holding on to FAS. NOPE... Timing off on that one.

I am basically stuck with my stupid FAZ. AND my only true long TAN isnt moving much. A tech ETF or at least FAZ puts/FAS calls would have protected my dumb position. ALWAYS HEDGE in volatility.

Wake me up when this stupidity is over. The economy is nowhere out of the woods. And yet the market is ignoring all the bad press and when anyone from the FED or govt has something positive, we get a >3% day.

*YAWN* time to shut down my MAC for tonight.

On a fun note: The NBA...
Congrats to the Cavs for getting the best record. Granted the Lakers seemed uninspired to do it themselves, but they basically could have got it if they really wanted to. LEBRON is the MVP for this year. He learned to improve his game by hanging with Kobe during the Olympics. Smart move. He does need a little more help to get a ring though.
Considering how Jordan kept the 90s Cavs (not to mention most eastern conference teams) from getting to the Finals, it is refreshing to know the Cavs finally have a descent chance of winning it all. If i were Lebron, i would see my options in places like... NYC, (even LA, it aint happening of course... Sorry Kobe, but if Lebron accepted a MLE, what reason would Buss have to keep Kobe.) Anyway. Lebron puts pressure on the Cavs to supply him with winning role players by saying he would consider other cities. He could use a true defensive/rebounding big man (since he already got Mo Williams) and that would be it, they would be the favorites. For now the Lakers Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, Odom quartet is scary... They rarely if ever played at a high level at the same time. If that happened, the Lakers are destined for another dynasty. If not, the Cavs will be there with Orlando being their primary nemesis. The Lakers will be set for the next 3/4 years if they come through this year.

The Market has been kicking my butt for 2 1/2 years... If my accounts go dry... That may be it... I may turn this site to an empty shell of what-ifs and no more early retirement.... I am almost begging that my account doesnt resurrect itself as it has so many times.... i havent been able to manage my account along with work, my wife, my volunteer work, and just the every day stuff. There is this scriptural thought that says: "You cannot slave for two masters.".... very true indeed. Anyway, i am still vested short for the long term.

Saturday, April 11, 2009


This is like the 3rd FAZ crash this year. 107 to 50s... 50s to low30s/hi 20s and now 24 to 10 in less a week. I hate FAZ.

Look i had this thing where i was trying to get out of this FAZ and place emphasis on long puts on FAS. Too late... Anyway, I said in a previous post weeks ago that this rally could find the S&P back to 1050. Before another wicked crash... which apparently might not come until next year...

So, i have no choice but to leave things as they are...

My NOC may puts are dead at this point. i actually let this position ride after selling half the original entry... which actually profited itself for the whole position. Not a lot of $$ but any $20 that turns into $120 in a few days i saw was worth it.

As for my TAN long... it is up huge from a few weeks.

I have a bunch of stuff coming up... a buddies wedding... and just completed 3 weeks or so of my voluntary work making sure a bunch of people were reached with something important which ended April 9. How is that for timing. Anyway, i sit here massively short and whacked.

And i filled an extension for my taxes. It will be $$$$ for me later for my European trip. So, in the end things arent that bad. I truly regret going against my own advice to my co-worker, "If you buy a block of FAZ make sure you buy some puts for insurance." I basically got greedy and went all in... dumb move yet again...

I should truly have an account that goes to $0 and yet it keeps making a come back... That is the Street for you...

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Am I convinced the bears are back?

You all know that earnings season will stink... The rally provided awesome entries on SKF, SRS, FAZ, DUG, SCO... i can go on and on with the short ETFs. But in hindsight i wish i went with a LEAP PUT instead on THE LEVERAGED BULLISH ETFs. The 2011 LEAPS actually look pretty cheap.

Anyway, if we somehow finish green, we have a long bear rally... Otherwise, we are set for another bull vs. bear deal with earnings that may be "not as bad" as expected. If we do get earnings that bomb... HELLOOO BEARS AGAIN...

I am totally jealous of you guys getting FAZ<20 & SRS<40...

Monday, April 6, 2009

Waiting game...

Todays action seems blah... i barely look at the market being that i am mainly short financials via FAZ and FAS puts.

The one thing i wish i had a small positionis SRS. I would never have thought things would get below 40. It has never been this low... It peaked last year in the mid 200.

But of all the sectors waiting for the crash i think it is (1) Financials (2)Tech (3) Retail.

Thus, this bear rally looks mighty technical to me. The reality is that we are no better now. If anything all those who avoided getting into debt are now enjoying buying up cheap houses, cheap vacations, cheap electronics. All the stuff the wannabes were buying on credit.

Anyway, i myself am waiting for a particular cruise to really get cheap. If it does I am all aboard.

OWN... FAZ/FAS puts, NOC, TAN...
WATCHING: SRS... and the following sectors.
retail: M, SHLD, TGT
energy: DUG, OIH

Friday, April 3, 2009

BOTTOM??? Maybe... For FAZ... Look out for VIX <40

The option side of FAZ is negative on both ends... it could change at days end of course.

It seems that there are a bunch of people walking cautiously on this one... Despite FAZ starting to tank down again, the put side is still selling off... possible marker that financials turn at this bear rally is ending (and shifting elsewhere, today it is tech). No one is going to be fooled with the banks in the long run...

SRS is a definite buy here...maybe <40 would be a buy... but definitely nibble here. It broke its 52 wk low...

The longer this rally goes, the more it complacent 'fear' seems to be pent up. VIX support is 40... below that... the bears will be licking their chops...

Thursday, April 2, 2009


Granted the Bulls have been whacking the bears to pieces...

The truth is that most bears are loving this... what an amazing set up!!!

My only regret is not waiting here, i was 'tricked' into believing the Bears would take control from Mondays bomb.

I am thinking that FAS LEAP 2011 Jan 3 put, may have been a better deal than my straight up FAZ. Some speculate that BOTH FAS & FAZ will go down to zero... If that indeed is the case then what am i doing sitting on FAZ here?

Anyway, FAZ is a definite 1/2 position buy here... Like i said in a previous post, the S&P has a huge move upward to possibly 1000. So, FAZ could still find the mid-teens - this reminds me of how oil kept falling with no end in sight (and how i sold my DUG calls WAYYY TOO early). So, anyway, i do hope for some relief tomorrow AND MONDAY... buy some time to get OUT of FAZ and into FAS LEAP puts...

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Stuck... again...FAZ...

Well, it seems as though i may have a tough time of this with the market rallying on VAPOR. Much like what microsoft used to do in VAPORWARE.

Anyway, my advice to someone recently was if you buy a block of stocks/etf... in my case FAZ, then have an option put or two as insurance...

My FAZ is getting whacked, and yet i still cant see how all these unemployed people can be ignored. Arent these the ones who eventually run out of unemployment benefits? Look i am not hoping that they cant find jobs. Its just the facts are not being put out there... so, why am i surprised right?

Well, FAZ in my mind will be a longer hold than i thought. I was hoping for more of a seesaw movement in the market.

The G20 is almost over and unemployment numbers are upon us. If the market ignores them... this rally does have real staying power for a bear rally. I think oil should have been my hedge... too late... so now i wait... stuck... again

Gotta finish my taxes... i hate paperwork


Well, today really stunk it up (so far). Market opens the way i expected - then BAM!!! "Better than expected economic data..." says Yahoo Finance. Puleeez...

Anyway, why cant this market just get things over with...

Well my TAN is getting some early volume... it isnt so hot as a hedge on FAZ... if anything FAZ puts would be the only way to do it right. I am thinking that a long put on FAS would have been better than what i have with FAZ straight up. I will have to calculate things later and see... i have a busy day after i get off this nightshift...

If FAZ holds here 18 to 19 range, then i think for those who haven't done so already, you might have found an entry...

Holding my ground... Eye on S&P

Held my FAZ despite getting whacked yesterday... if anything, yesterday taught me that averaging in is the best way. had i done so, then i would have bought another block yesterday, but alas i was basically all in on monday.

today, we may find a reversal back to the bulls favor. it seems as though whenever Obama speaks, things never turn out. But if Ben speaks then the bulls clamor for a trade...

S&P has a few areas pointed out by iBankcoin & Tim...

As for my co-worker (i'll call him #2), i was surprised he didnt want to hold at least some of his FAZ. If anything i told him had he bought some underlying puts then that would have offset his loses for the day or even make him profitable. Alas, he is still gunshy and having been a 'victim' of the dot com bubble it is understandable. Fight another day... Fine, but this market is so volitile, he may regret having sold ALL of his FAZ & SRS...

We shall see if the bulls can win another day...

Monday, March 30, 2009

FAZ re-entry... considerations... another co-worker

Well, i got back in FAZ... it it too early, i dont know, i do know i missed the <20 entry that one of my co-workers got in... Anyway got in at $24.

I am following the FLY/TIM as they have served a great gauges.
Tim is cautious at this point, spotting a few shorts while picking longs bouncing off lows whereas
FLY now has re-entered the market this past thursday/friday after being in cash for some time.

Apparently there are a bunch of them investing now. This one dude bought 1K blocks of FAZ & SRS. Hmm is he looking at the Fly? Anyway, that is a lot for him to jump plunk down like that. I learned he was a victim of the dot com bubble. And his jumping in like this shows he has a lot of guts. I hope he has an exit plan.

The other co-worker is has a more diverse portfolio, and he is still hanging on to some FAS. I don't think that is actually a good idea, though i appreciate his willingness to balance. I would rather go with alternative energy than financial on a long. Or even better go GLD/gold.

Sunday, March 29, 2009

GM deal... just to bring in the bulls... And Much more stuff

Well, Obama is doing his best to keep this rally going. GM CEO forced out. I am sure he has a few more tricks to manipulate the market. But facts are facts.

I am looking at possibly entering FAZ, SRS, FXP... or do MORE puts on FAS.

The thing is we need these pull backs even in bear rallies. And hey, these bulls at the same time are thinking they want to cut their loses (from last year).

The start of this week is telling but i think the end of the week really points if we again go <7K or eventually get to 10K with a final bubble.

My co-worker is doing an admirable job of starting out with a modest $2K account. He is profiting as a newbie. Congrats to him. He has learned to leverage his portfolio to cover himself if the market moves in either direction. His buys like WMT, FAZ, and now consideration in oil (with summer approaching) are in the play books of many traders. But it is funny that he asks me questions that i dont necessarily know the answer to, maybe that is why he is doing so much better than how i did when i started. He is already about 20 to 25% just in a couple months!!! Awesome...

At the same time he is not trading options. So, that might be all there is to it. My way of using options has basically failed for the most part, but i have found success of late WITH options. But i am still wary of them... So, i have strongly recommended my co-worker to stick to regular securities for now. til this day i regret selling my AAPL stocks in 2007 and moving to options. Of course, if someone taught me options during the AAPL run of 2004 - 2006 (less volatile), i would have been considering retirement in a few years. Alas, that is why we still enter this market, we dream of getting some $ and spending more time with the family & our "more important things".

I am much more of a realist... married and have other more important things in life. Sure the $$$$$ would be nice (especially to pay off our debts), but being happy and not waking up 3am has done wonders for my health and my wife.

AND the fact is... there are A LOT more opportunities ahead.

Current... FAS & NOC puts... TAN...
financials: FAZ, FAS, XLF, SKF,
China: FXP
Market: SPY, SDS
Energy: DUG, DIG, USO...

Thursday, March 26, 2009

S&P via move to 875? maybe even 1050?

Well looks like one of the dudes on ibankcoin has a good chart that proposes that S&P could get to around 875 (the last of the many lines of resistance)... and if it sticks we are totally having a HUGE bull run. He didnt say it, but that is what i see on the chart.

That is also shown on Tims chart as well. He cites the fall from 825 to 666. And now shows the overhead run of 825 to 1050 would take some time.

The point is it will always be tough to call the reversal on this trend, but the signs are there.
I may enter a few longs if we do get to 875 and bounce off of it rather than shoot right through.

I think my NOC may puts are probably done... i was letting it ride having sold half the position that was more than covered the principle costs... my only other short (july put) is on FAS. With everyone saying FAS could depreciate to zero, only makes the argument stronger. Gio cites FAZ could get to zero as well, i could only hope...

this thought btw, was brought to my attention a few weeks ago while i was banking coin on FAZ, this arrogant doctor had something smart to say about holding FAZ. I am like, hey, i am not stupid i learned you cant hold ANYTHING! The thing is successfully flipped to a FAZ put, but the dumb thing stopped out on a 66% profit when 2 DAYS LATER it was a 900% profit. So much for stops when things get volatile.

I patiently wait for 875 to get here... sooner than later would be nice for the bears (and bulls on the ride up).

Monday, March 23, 2009

What goes up...must come down... eventually

Well, the futures pre-market were blazing. if anything it would have been nice to entered some FAS pre-market. But alas, i was busy with my congested sinuses this past week and needed to really sleep in.

My TAN is up 10%. but my FAS July 4 put took a whack.

I am still mostly to cash. I learned a long time ago to be wary about holding things into the weekend or making any entry on Friday. You just never know what the FED/Prez will say.

But i must say that i am totally happy that the market was up. I am spying LONG calls on the ETF shorts. But i am in no rush to get in... anyway, nothing else more to say...

TAN stock
FAS puts
NOC puts (this prez doesnt mind the Defense sector)
VISN stock

yawn... i know, such a boring portfolio.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

FAZ revenge...

I didnt bother to wake up 330am Hawaii time, but wish i did... FAZ <25? talk about a day where the fade would have banked coin.

An April 25 call at the open = 100% gain... man...

But you know what? The bulls arent done yet... So, hang on tight for Fridays close. Clarity will come...

I personally hope FAZ dips back to 25... and jumps back up. But as with my trading history... it aint happening.

As for my lone significant position of FAS July 4 put. pretty much its sitting at a minor loss... waiting for a chance to get I.T.M. Believe me... it will...

Working on my taxes to pay for my trip to Germany... and some settlement money to pay off more debt. Hope to get black by years end... if not even huge on the green if my disciplined trading continues. I missed huge moves, but also avoided huge set backs. whew... will dip back into the market next week...

here's hoping the bulls are back tomorrow.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

FA DISBELIEF and PREDICTABLE at the same time...

Man i KNEW FAZ would crash one day, thus my FAZ 35 put (which got stopped out @1.1)... the thing is a whopping 4.69

Anyway, here's to FAZ getting to 20's and i will gobble them FAZ calls. I know one thing... No way am i selling my FAS puts. As quickly as this 'Financial rally?' has come... I do think it will end as dramatically. incredible.

FAZ will have to wait. Stopped out... the wrong way.

Well, if anything, what i should have done was place a trailing 10% stop on FAZ. I would have @ least had a small profit. But i am glad that i only committed to 1/2 a position at the time. So, losing a few bucks here is still ok.

FAS july 4 put is still far out enough to get back ITM. but the time decay might kill off the option.

Alright see i am busy this week but will have an eye on FAZ hitting the 52 wk low...

As for this possibly missed opportunity on FAS, well that is all it is a missed opportunity thus far. I am inclined to dip in if it breaks $6. otherwise, no rush here.

Friday, March 13, 2009


You know this rally aint continuing... SOLD FAS @5+. AND bought FAS july 4 puts@1.35. nice window for an option that can get in the money next week...

Anyway, i am not a huge fan of options, being that i am not as swift to grab profits. for example i held FAZ Mar 35 puts (originally bought @.60)... ended up missing the gap sell @2.0 on tuesday... it stopped out on wednesday @1.1 (still a profit)... only to find it 2.4 on thursday and today it peaked 3.3 (when i happen to be awake). as you see the following would have been plausible

TUES: sell FAZ on a stop >2
WED: re-buy WITH profit same option
THU: SELL or hold into Fridays last gasp.

And there you have it 800%+ gain. but nope, i end that specific trade 66% profit. options are fleeting...

ANYWAY, FAZ is calling again, and wouldnt you know it i happen to be awake this time and found it <39 (an obvious buy). BUT i flinch and let that slip... HOWEVER, may still get it at the closing bell...

i bought a few FAZ @40.+(1/2 position)

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

FAZ put stopped out

Well, the good news is my FAZ put stopped out... the bad news... my FAZ put stopped out. 66% gain is ok... but not when i had 200% (granted before i woke up)... Lesson learned. a far out option will bank huge coin on initial gaps, but even if it dips past the gap, it is unlikely that one will find a better return. i.e. set that stupid sell stop at both ends.

FAS is still barely up over 4.

Anyway, i think tomorrow we see some definite weakness, but the trend is still up. I think a big Friday awaits. And I dont dare hold over the weekend.

My hope is that FAZ gets <50 again... it bounced off of it today (51ish actually). I will get in eventually. I have no reason to rush

50% of my kid account is to cash... remember to respect the market AND pay off your debts.


Well, yesterday i bought FAS @3.57... it ran up to 4 and hit a wall... although we havent reached the close yet...

Also decided to hold my FAZ put one more day... The problem is i didnt wake up early enough to cash out a 333% versus 40% where it sits now. I dont know if the bulls have chickening out here... or at least banking their profits, which is what i should have done. ANOTHER LESSON with OPTIONS proftis dont stick around for long so... WAKE UP FOR THE OPEN!!!

Anyway, i set my sell stops this time around for the last hour. Another green day means an extended rally is ahead of us... if not, oh well... that is what stops are for...

Monday, March 9, 2009


So, we have the market down... AND FAZ down. I like the latter for obvious reasons. But things just keep getting more difficult to read.

You would think that Tuesday will bring a rally, but really who knows.

I actually did expect the market to head down today (Monday), to shake out any more indecisive traders. But i also thought the Bulls would make a better show.

My puts on FAZ has a small profit. Nothing to cheer about, hope we get a massive Rally so as to re-enter FAZ or another Bear ETF.

One more thing, Lakers obviously NEED Bynum, he still seems lost sometimes, but he has an edge on him...Ever since i saw him almost take out James, I thought that the toughness (if thats a word) And Odom looks like he will be gone at the end of the season, depending on whether he contributes in the Finals.

Spurs look really good as long as Parker and Duncan are healthy. I think they have this year and next...and that is it for this group.

Cavs lack inside presence.

Boston will be back in the Finals if KG is back no doubt. Maurberry should get his legs back, but he will have to learn to play D first...

Orlando, i dont think they are ready for the pressure. If they still had Jameer, I would put them ahead of the Cavs

So, the question is LA or Spurs vs. Boston... and maybe Cavs

My hyper-extended shoulder is killing me... It is a good thing that I have sick benefits. Injuries are lame... I have to get in better shape before I turn 40.

Ideas on ETF

Well, my guess for Monday is we actually open down hard... only to have a flood of bulls..

Possible ETFs to look at include XLV (health), TNA (3x small cap bull), UYM (materials), FAS (financials). Too many to list...

But remember the window on these trades may have to be a day trade... it would be hard to stay long anywhere except where Obama has openly backed things... alternative energy, health care, education...

I am surprised that the Defense/Military sector continues to hold up... If you just wiped out a weeks worth of operations, much of the U.S. deficit would be made up... Dont believe me? Look it up yourself... Democrats usually dont fund defense as well the Republicans. I dont like politics myself, just a general observation...

Anyway, this week the bulls are due for a charge... if i do find FAZ in the green... i have no choice but to wait patiently. No reason to chase anything... unless is breaks below 6000...

Friday, March 6, 2009

Whew... I Vented yesterday... I missed the build up to a rally by a day. And MY bigger picture.

FAZ... missed the sell by a day
Well, i was relieved to see the bulls back at Fridays close. I was out doing some stuff w/ this dude getting hitched. I was sidelined today, but Monday may present a huge opportunity. Especially as i have no position in FAZ... except for a tiny FAZ March put, being that even FAR OUT of the money is reachable as "violent" the market has been on the bull and bear sides. I cant complain as Gio reminded me... anytime someone gets in @39 and sells near 97 within 5 weeks... why complain. Sure, i SHOULD HAVE set my stops to allow FAZ to run >100 and yet keep a stop @95... but i digress.

All I know is the large picture going back to the 70s says low 6000 is just about the bottom... from the 1984/5 to 1994/5 had a move of 2000 to 4000. Remember 1995 was the dawn of the internet and the beginnings of the individual INTERNET investor and a flood of newbies that 'gamble' their way into the market has made the market slave to speculative trading...

The thing is a healthy pace would have placed the Dow @low 7000s, if you made a straight line from 1984 to 1994 and into 2009. So the big picture to ME is that we've been overbought UNTIL 2009 came around. We are at healthier levels versus MY big picture, but the economy really stinks... so, we are headed for the doldrums of the 1970s AND a bit of 1980s inflation to some degree at the same time... if we do collapse <6000, i wonder if we would be in a mode where wall street will have to reboot and maybe we get back to 1984 levels. I doubt it will be that bad, but who knows.

2009 will be a long year... As for Bernack-ity saying a this recession could end in '09, I dont 'buy' it. 2007 gave us a bunch of warning signs...2008 confirmed it... 2009 we are accepting it... the American and Global economy stinks and will for some time.

FAZ... i hate you...


Anyway, patience... patience...

I was thinking about it yesterday as i sold FAZ... for the most part FAZ follows this pattern of opening/gapping lower then running up...

Today was no different. so, far as this post is before the market closes.

As for my AAPL puts... looks like i shouldve left it in place. lame, i missed getting back 25% more of my loser position.

My guess for next week? Dunno...

If we somehow end the day green... then itll be all good for me and a bull set up for next week, but for now watching FAZ up another 14%... I HATE YOU FAZ.

Thursday, March 5, 2009

SOLD FAZ & AAPL puts... bought FAZ puts

Ok... sold FAZ 96+... but i SHOULD have set stops at <96 and >100... oh well a few bucks off... Not bad considering i got in at 39. Sold AAPL puts at a loss, being that AAPL is one of the few spotlights that the few bulls are clinging to... Believe me though, i may rebuy puts on AAPL at earnings...

Anyway, i do sense a BIG time rally... we may get nibblers to the table tomorrow... which i do hope, and i think another drop Monday.

After that I really do think the Dow will head back to 8000 level. At that point I will again look to reload on my FAZ.

Anyway, i have learned that patience is imperative... follow me or thehawaiitrader on twitter... i do not log on every day, but i do when i place my trades... and especially when i feel we are at a crossroads on the tape or near resistance or support on the Dow.

Pay your debts (and make money by saving it)... that is all i got to say, and everything will be bonus...

Friday, February 27, 2009

Every tried Safari 4? Awesome browser... However,

AAPL itself will/has fall but I am unsure... Awesome products, stock stinks since 2008. Anyway, this is one company that will be uber powerful if this recession ends before long...

For now i have puts on AAPL and have a a few shares of FAZ... of which i should have had more...

Anyway, some of my co-workers are saying 6000 on the DOW within the month... I really dont know if that will happen, but i do think we will get there some time this year.

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

The Missing Stop... on FAZ

Well, as i even noted in my previous post. Selling above 80 would have been a good idea. The sell off was merely another leg to a lower day in the future... I admit about being bummed about missing my sell point and rebuying here (mid 50s), but my belief is that we are still waiting for the big bust...

Today would have been a good day to reload on puts. but alas, i hate having expiration dates...

Thus, I continue going forward on FAZ. My next sell point will actually be higher if we do sell off tomorrow... If we get higher, Its all about riding it out for the rest of the year. As the summer slump approaches.

But if anything, today was merely a banking of profits for the Bears.

FAZ still has ALOT of upside

Last week Tuesday, I overheard a doc @ a hospital mention how these inverse ETFs would eventually be useless and that NONE of his mutual fund or his supposed inside fund manager friends say they would rather not trade something like FAZ.


Yea, your idiotic fund manager friend is right in the long term regarding how these inverse or Bear ETFs are funded. But look here... buy $39 and change and a couple weeks later $79... and i actually missed it going to $85 (my sell stop/limit would have been $80 and rebuy @<70)

Anyway, the point is, these fund managers may be smarter than me or have a gigantic portfolio. But all this extra talk about NEVER trading Bear related ETF is stupid. Bunch of talk... blah blah blah...

And the funny thing is i told a co-worker to buy FAZ under 39... and he told me today, I should have listen to you. I did ease his feeling of missing a move by telling him I missed a lot of moves after having gotten bored - at which point of course the tickers i followed suddenly moved while i fell asleep at the wheel.

Anyway, i follow REAL fund managers and REAL traders (Fly, Tim, etc), granted i could be piling up more $ if i paid more attention to my portfolio... The investors I follow are all double digit % up. I'd like to know how this Big talking doc is doing. All these supposed secret trades or buying up whatever debt deals are all speculative.

FAZ is making me (the regular dude) $$$$. Of course, i was blasted late 2008 and have little to show at this point, but I know I am doing better than the Doctors fund friends... bunch of wusses...

Excuse my rant... I would love to shove it in their face, but alas one of these docs could save my life one day...

Monday, February 9, 2009

FAZ... i am back in... and hedged.

FAZ <40? Of course it's a buy. It actually got <39 - no doubt a buy there.
Going option calls on FAZ was tempting, but alas i have no time to look at this thing with all this other "more important" stuff going on.

Look, I am still hedged on FAS and TAN (solar ETF hasnt done anything, but is there for Obama backing).

I am just working to get my debts down and get back in the black come 2010 if not sooner.

Wednesday, February 4, 2009


Hey, I sent a text to a trader i follow and btw is up last year and so far this year. I had to mention my confusion yesterday regarding reverse ETFs. They were all being bought while the market was up >1%. Whah???

Anyway, my positions are unchanged. It looks like this market will head higher albeit at a snails pace... until more bad news that is...

I missed a bunch of earnings misses A.K.A. option put entries. But hey, i dont trust the market. There have been times i bought a put prior to earnings... and although the news is bad, buying of the stock occurs.

I still believe in FAZ. But not here. <40 was the entry i missed and did call... altho i didnt post it. I told a co-worker newbie to watch that ETF and i gave him the exact entry. Whatevers... more opportunities await for sure. I am busy with "more important things" and one of my buddies is getting married in a few months...

I also await a settlement from a car accident almost 2 years ago and will see if i can settle for more than what is being offerred. Then use that $$$$$ to pay down debt. In fact, that is the best thing we can do... rid ourselves of debt.

And i will try to get my taxes in order so as to get a refund before the Fed gov't turns into California with the I.O.U. checks.

Monday, January 26, 2009

Last Week Summary... Other news...THE PATENT

I bought some Apr 65 puts last week.(knowing the way things have gone for me, the stock will likely go up) Why puts? Well, eventually the market is never happy with AAPL. The best time to have done this was likely MacWorld. But i missed the boat on that as well as SNE puts. That wasnt hard to see coming.

OTHER NEWS...AAPL will likely go up on a patent...
Apple was awarded that Mult-touch Patent (on mobile devices). Trouble now awaits for any touch screen hand held. So even though PALM has been the main target by the media regarding this threat (being they are weak), RIMM, NOK, Samsung, LG, maybe MSFT... Anyone, who has some sort of gestures or multitouch will face a legal battle. And the thing is AAPL has $28B and growing to protect its newest platform.

So, my eyes are again on RIMM/PALM long puts...

Otherwise, i have puts on a defense company, AAPL... and hedges on FAS/TAN...

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

missed the FAZ. HOLDING pattern on FAS & TAN.

No choice but to hold.

I have thoughts on getting in on monthly distribution type investments...

Will inform later. But least to say everything is dirt cheap.

AAPL will be interesting. Could it reach a new low today? Or is the apathy priced in...

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

AAPL panic selling... I did warn people... FAZ train continues.

I just wished i bought AAPL puts instead of RIMM. And now i feel we will gap down on the NASDAQ. The thing is, this might lead to an awesome time to buy AAPL if it ever gets to the 50s. Big if...

The FAZ train has passed it may even get to 60 by weeks end *sigh*... i should have at least average in. Now i am sidelined until at the very least next week.

Sitting Out... Watching

FAZ has been a good trade for me. I have two accounts. And it seems like i should have left one account as my hold account.

TAN is back on my radar. I am hoping that Obama says something about Solar... Although i wonder if going U.S. solar would be better than TAN. If so, i think FSLR is still the leader...

Gio has warned everyone that the VIX is back. I will follow it again... and this time obey...

Monday, January 12, 2009

FAZ stopped out @ 2 levels

The ending of 2008 pretty much summerizes my inconsistent/undisciplined style. The picks were good. The lack of setting stops and booking profits has been my downfall. The HTX trade was one of the worst trades i have done. I took myself out of trades that involved put buying FXP and then buying up C that would double and again put buying the inverse ETFs at the end of the Turkey rally.

Regarding my worst trade of all time? It was NOT leaving AAPL stock alone(sold it @80 in 2006 and started trading options - lost me more $$$$ than i want to think about.

Even though i missed the high today by about a dollar, I knew the thing would sell hard at days end relative to the 2 hour real time graph:

Stopped on 1st small bunch @47.9 ask... then 1/2 hour later the smaller portfolio @48.5 ask. I kept moving my stop during the day.

Booked my profits as the upcoming Obama rally may be upon us. All the earnings this Q might have well been priced in.

My lone FXP call will not hit unless there is some sort of blue chip bankruptcy. Same goes for RIMM jan 30 put. that was a waste.

I am thinking of switching to half FAZ and FXP. I am tired of options and will contine to devote my puny portfolios into inverse ETFs. The only stock i plan to touch at all is FSLR or any non-china Solar as my Obama trade.

Anyway, tax season is upon us, and i will be one of the many getting a return as one who didnt bank anything except at my real job. And looks like i will have 2009 to carry over my losses. That's my only "silver" lining (actually Solar lining would be better)

Friday, January 9, 2009

Like i said, FAZ... Btw, education stocks on fire...

I watched FAZ dip to 34 a few days back but now it rides 40. In other words i am back green on FAZ. My options in RIMM & FXP have not turned out at all.

Oh and Gio hit it right... using fundamentals of all things...(not the VIX). Talk about old school. Anyway, i enjoyed my time off doing other stuff... So, its nice to know i have FAZ just sitting there waiting for an explosion of sorts...

The NBA is very interesting tonight. Celtics and Cavs. I hope Cavs whack the Celtics. I dont particularly like Lebron, but i know he will replace Kobe one day as the best in 4 years if not sooner. I mean, few will take a charge on a Linebacker sized body. He can go to the hoop almost anytime. Kobe on the other hand has a full array of AMAZING shots from any point of the floor. The craziest shot was a FADING 3 Pointer... with his LEFT HAND as time expired... Lucky? Maybe... but he shot it and it went in. Anyway, just saying that we should enjoy Kobe before he retires. Lebron is the future.

Enjoy your weekend... if you dont oh well... i will enjoy it for you...

Tax season!!! I will have $$$$ to deduct even though i cashed out some government bonds. Unfortunately a few bad trades cost me in 2008 and I only caught the tail end of the crash only to be blind sided in the year end rally. So, in the end, I still win (i am not trying to sound like FLY)...

Sunday, January 4, 2009

MacWorld cool... Apple stock: forget it...

If you have money to risk fine...

I am personally more interested in some new Macs... honestly, so the Refurbished ones are cheaper... maybe i will bite...

The oil trend is definitely continuing. I can't wait til all this Obama stuff gets done with...

Friday, January 2, 2009


Asian markets are up at the time of this post... And all i can say is, let the Obama propaganda begin...

Thus i stay right where i am... if you have options puts... lengthen the window. The crash is coming, we just dont quite know when.