Thursday, January 28, 2010

Like i said... Blow whats left

Did i see a sell off coming... sure...

That's AAPL... buy on hype, sell on news... unfortunately i didn't buy any put insurance. I have lost on both ends again and was determined to go with the stock going forward.

My Mar call has been bought @.40 is currently worth .25
My July call bought @.9 is currently worth .50

Its no wonder my wife tells me a last night... "I think you should just do stocks - Options are too risky." Hmm the market sure made a point...

I hate to say it... Cramer was right on this one...
He said to be ready to buy when the sell off happens post Tablet news... but go long from there...

In any case... this $ has been collecting dust.

It seems as tho i will have to wait for the iPad to actually start selling to get any traction on my options. My March call seems outright dead... July holds out hope and now a January call is entirely possible... but the puts are out of my range.

Stuck again...

Monday, January 25, 2010

I AM BACK IN... blowing up what's left... in AAPL options

I feel 'wordy'...

Well, i have been away from Trading... missing the huge bear rally... but when you get the snot knocked out of you so many times going long/short and both... you just stop and say where else am i losing money...

Paid off a couple loans since being away... So, that plan worked.

Today, i am finally getting back in by way of AAPL options.

So bought out of the money calls: AAPL Mar 270 @.4 AND July 320 @ .90.

I thought, well (even though i expect another crash as soon as march), common this is one of those Quarters and possible news a couple days later that can pump some real $$$$$$ into this stock. I might as well make my $ work for me and write off the loses later. I am not expecting much as this is a speculative trade based on the following:

A. Possible surprise on iMac sales for Holiday Q
- they cant keep the 27 inch in stock (despite flicker problems)

B. Possible surprise on iPhone sales
- this past Q includes China and more non-exclusive carriers

C. Possible surprise news on anything else during press release
- Streaming and Ad companies were bought insight

A. Obviously a Tablet that will blow us away at a good price
- AAPL shot up $10 in about <2 days. I think news here might top it

B. Possible Verizon (and any other carrier) working with Apple
- lead some to speculate on the iPhone on VZ being an eventuality
- a VZ deal to some could be bigger than the Tablet.

C. Subscriptions being an option
- that is what Switchers always complain about

Anyway, i thought about going with RIMM/PALM puts as well but hey RIMM is prepared to to provide a rebuttal press releases... and PALM will likely be bought out anyway. I dont get how RIMM and MSFT dont bother to buy out PALM and their patents.

In the end, AAPL was what made me interested in stocks in the first place. Made much going with them (and loss when i started doing options *sigh*). So, I think it was an appropriate moment to go with the one company that really is far ahead of its competitors. I would say, if Apple didnt have to depend on Intel chips... no one would have any idea what Apple is doing - being that their has to be some type of leaks to their other OEMs or at least accurate guessing. And if Google's CEO wasnt on Apple's board, i think Android (and thus any competition) would be there for the iPhone.

So, i basically have everything left in my poor trading account going into AAPL. I will probably make a deposit to this account in a couple weeks... as i said before, there is a crash coming... just have no idea when its happening. But my Bear watchlist includes: FXP, SDS, SKF, SRF, and anything new i find that wraps the whole market on the short side.

Anyway, i am prepared to write off whatever i lose on these trades.
As much as AAPL could skyrocket, it can also drop off a cliff.