Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Mondays have been bear days/dip buying... AAPL reports soon.

So, here i am watching all this stuff unfold and i am stuck on the sideline AGAIN!!!

The basic pattern for the last month or so is...
Friday: take profits friday and hedge big with shorts/puts.
Monday: sell puts with a small block to buy bear ETFs on any bounces.
Tues-Thursday: watch your Longs make $$$$.

So, what else is new?
Well, if Tuesday doesnt sell off, then dont expect anything changing from the pattern i just mentioned.

What i learned?
ALWAYS have something ready when this kind of action happens. Inevitably patience wins out... Look at my old posts and see where i benefitted from waiting with a planned exit. But when i just bought with the long view of holding (knowing the next bear crash could come any day... or so i thought like many.), i got pounded to bits.

Anyway, it looks like we will open green Tuesday... any close that stays green heavily ways in the Bulls favor.

One more thing... AAPL reports wednesday - its earnings could totally throw things outta whack... for bears or bulls... stay tuned.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Exchange Rates....

Well, i am looking at Euro vs. $US. Interesting how the $US as nearly 80% versus the Euro. A couple years back on my honeymoon it more like $1 = .67ish Euros. Horrible exchange. But with the US Govt printing money to cover the credit side of things, i better get me a good exchange now.

Its funny how i am treating this exchange thing for my European trip much as i would a traded stock (i dont do FOREX). This year the $US versus Euro has ranged from .75 to .79+. Last year .63 to .78

Following older data it seems that the $US strength really follows the strength of the market. Interesting... Thus, i am thinking that i may need to get a 1/2 position now, as we know a crash may soon be upon us, with another rally to follow.

Of course, the bears will be back, but it may take until 2010 for that to happen. Man, i wished i just bought long term-puts on FAS and FAZ instead....

Monday, April 13, 2009

*sarcasm* North Korea says they will still make bomb-grade plutonium... Market will go up Right?

This market is mental... N.Korea "...we will [keep doing what we want]..."

So far lets see how things have been working out.

Banks that have been bailed out somehow claim a profit! - market up
The unemployment numbers have trended up, but not as bad as thought - market up
Houses not sold at record numbers - market up
North Korea?... Whadda ya think? Market up...

Pay your taxes Wednesday... i filled an extension, maybe i shouldnt, since the govʻt OWES ME money. Anyway, i just gotta hand it off to my CPA and thats it.

Hey, i just got a hang nail!!!... MARKET UP...

Excuse the sarcasm, but this bear rally (though not unexpected) annoys me.

Wake Me Up When This Smokescreen is over...

Obama did his job in boosting the market. Thanks man, my portfolio thought you were going to say those things early on in January. What happened? I was totally long. I then switched to shorting and made up some loss $$$$. But in the end all this talk of "hope" is empty until we see a true reversal of the unemployment numbers.

Anyway, the technicals say we may be headed to 1050... Again... Hello, i thought all this stuff was going to happen 2 weeks ago when i was to cash. And waited patiently for an entry to FAZ while holding on to FAS. NOPE... Timing off on that one.

I am basically stuck with my stupid FAZ. AND my only true long TAN isnt moving much. A tech ETF or at least FAZ puts/FAS calls would have protected my dumb position. ALWAYS HEDGE in volatility.

Wake me up when this stupidity is over. The economy is nowhere out of the woods. And yet the market is ignoring all the bad press and when anyone from the FED or govt has something positive, we get a >3% day.

*YAWN* time to shut down my MAC for tonight.


On a fun note: The NBA...
Congrats to the Cavs for getting the best record. Granted the Lakers seemed uninspired to do it themselves, but they basically could have got it if they really wanted to. LEBRON is the MVP for this year. He learned to improve his game by hanging with Kobe during the Olympics. Smart move. He does need a little more help to get a ring though.
Considering how Jordan kept the 90s Cavs (not to mention most eastern conference teams) from getting to the Finals, it is refreshing to know the Cavs finally have a descent chance of winning it all. If i were Lebron, i would see my options in places like... NYC, (even LA, it aint happening of course... Sorry Kobe, but if Lebron accepted a MLE, what reason would Buss have to keep Kobe.) Anyway. Lebron puts pressure on the Cavs to supply him with winning role players by saying he would consider other cities. He could use a true defensive/rebounding big man (since he already got Mo Williams) and that would be it, they would be the favorites. For now the Lakers Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, Odom quartet is scary... They rarely if ever played at a high level at the same time. If that happened, the Lakers are destined for another dynasty. If not, the Cavs will be there with Orlando being their primary nemesis. The Lakers will be set for the next 3/4 years if they come through this year.

REALITY:
The Market has been kicking my butt for 2 1/2 years... If my accounts go dry... That may be it... I may turn this site to an empty shell of what-ifs and no more early retirement.... I am almost begging that my account doesnt resurrect itself as it has so many times.... i havent been able to manage my account along with work, my wife, my volunteer work, and just the every day stuff. There is this scriptural thought that says: "You cannot slave for two masters.".... very true indeed. Anyway, i am still vested short for the long term.

Saturday, April 11, 2009

SHOCKED... WELL KINDA...

This is like the 3rd FAZ crash this year. 107 to 50s... 50s to low30s/hi 20s and now 24 to 10 in less a week. I hate FAZ.

Look i had this thing where i was trying to get out of this FAZ and place emphasis on long puts on FAS. Too late... Anyway, I said in a previous post weeks ago that this rally could find the S&P back to 1050. Before another wicked crash... which apparently might not come until next year...

So, i have no choice but to leave things as they are...

My NOC may puts are dead at this point. i actually let this position ride after selling half the original entry... which actually profited itself for the whole position. Not a lot of $$ but any $20 that turns into $120 in a few days i saw was worth it.

As for my TAN long... it is up huge from a few weeks.

I have a bunch of stuff coming up... a buddies wedding... and just completed 3 weeks or so of my voluntary work making sure a bunch of people were reached with something important which ended April 9. How is that for timing. Anyway, i sit here massively short and whacked.

And i filled an extension for my taxes. It will be $$$$ for me later for my European trip. So, in the end things arent that bad. I truly regret going against my own advice to my co-worker, "If you buy a block of FAZ make sure you buy some puts for insurance." I basically got greedy and went all in... dumb move yet again...

I should truly have an account that goes to $0 and yet it keeps making a come back... That is the Street for you...

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Am I convinced the bears are back?

You all know that earnings season will stink... The rally provided awesome entries on SKF, SRS, FAZ, DUG, SCO... i can go on and on with the short ETFs. But in hindsight i wish i went with a LEAP PUT instead on THE LEVERAGED BULLISH ETFs. The 2011 LEAPS actually look pretty cheap.

Anyway, if we somehow finish green, we have a long bear rally... Otherwise, we are set for another bull vs. bear deal with earnings that may be "not as bad" as expected. If we do get earnings that bomb... HELLOOO BEARS AGAIN...

I am totally jealous of you guys getting FAZ<20 & SRS<40...

Monday, April 6, 2009

Waiting game...

Todays action seems blah... i barely look at the market being that i am mainly short financials via FAZ and FAS puts.

The one thing i wish i had a small positionis SRS. I would never have thought things would get below 40. It has never been this low... It peaked last year in the mid 200.

But of all the sectors waiting for the crash i think it is (1) Financials (2)Tech (3) Retail.

Thus, this bear rally looks mighty technical to me. The reality is that we are no better now. If anything all those who avoided getting into debt are now enjoying buying up cheap houses, cheap vacations, cheap electronics. All the stuff the wannabes were buying on credit.

Anyway, i myself am waiting for a particular cruise to really get cheap. If it does I am all aboard.

OWN... FAZ/FAS puts, NOC, TAN...
WATCHING: SRS... and the following sectors.
retail: M, SHLD, TGT
energy: DUG, OIH
tech: SNE, RIMM, AAPL

Friday, April 3, 2009

BOTTOM??? Maybe... For FAZ... Look out for VIX <40

The option side of FAZ is negative on both ends... it could change at days end of course.

It seems that there are a bunch of people walking cautiously on this one... Despite FAZ starting to tank down again, the put side is still selling off... possible marker that financials turn at this bear rally is ending (and shifting elsewhere, today it is tech). No one is going to be fooled with the banks in the long run...

SRS is a definite buy here...maybe <40 would be a buy... but definitely nibble here. It broke its 52 wk low...

The longer this rally goes, the more it complacent 'fear' seems to be pent up. VIX support is 40... below that... the bears will be licking their chops...

Thursday, April 2, 2009

READY??? IT IS COMING... AND I CANT WAIT...

Granted the Bulls have been whacking the bears to pieces...

The truth is that most bears are loving this... what an amazing set up!!!

My only regret is not waiting here, i was 'tricked' into believing the Bears would take control from Mondays bomb.

I am thinking that FAS LEAP 2011 Jan 3 put, may have been a better deal than my straight up FAZ. Some speculate that BOTH FAS & FAZ will go down to zero... If that indeed is the case then what am i doing sitting on FAZ here?

Anyway, FAZ is a definite 1/2 position buy here... Like i said in a previous post, the S&P has a huge move upward to possibly 1000. So, FAZ could still find the mid-teens - this reminds me of how oil kept falling with no end in sight (and how i sold my DUG calls WAYYY TOO early). So, anyway, i do hope for some relief tomorrow AND MONDAY... buy some time to get OUT of FAZ and into FAS LEAP puts...

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Stuck... again...FAZ...

Well, it seems as though i may have a tough time of this with the market rallying on VAPOR. Much like what microsoft used to do in VAPORWARE.

Anyway, my advice to someone recently was if you buy a block of stocks/etf... in my case FAZ, then have an option put or two as insurance...

My FAZ is getting whacked, and yet i still cant see how all these unemployed people can be ignored. Arent these the ones who eventually run out of unemployment benefits? Look i am not hoping that they cant find jobs. Its just the facts are not being put out there... so, why am i surprised right?

Well, FAZ in my mind will be a longer hold than i thought. I was hoping for more of a seesaw movement in the market.

The G20 is almost over and unemployment numbers are upon us. If the market ignores them... this rally does have real staying power for a bear rally. I think oil should have been my hedge... too late... so now i wait... stuck... again

Gotta finish my taxes... i hate paperwork

HUH? WAITING AGAIN... FAZ <20

Well, today really stunk it up (so far). Market opens the way i expected - then BAM!!! "Better than expected economic data..." says Yahoo Finance. Puleeez...

Anyway, why cant this market just get things over with...

Well my TAN is getting some early volume... it isnt so hot as a hedge on FAZ... if anything FAZ puts would be the only way to do it right. I am thinking that a long put on FAS would have been better than what i have with FAZ straight up. I will have to calculate things later and see... i have a busy day after i get off this nightshift...

If FAZ holds here 18 to 19 range, then i think for those who haven't done so already, you might have found an entry...

Holding my ground... Eye on S&P

Held my FAZ despite getting whacked yesterday... if anything, yesterday taught me that averaging in is the best way. had i done so, then i would have bought another block yesterday, but alas i was basically all in on monday.

today, we may find a reversal back to the bulls favor. it seems as though whenever Obama speaks, things never turn out. But if Ben speaks then the bulls clamor for a trade...

S&P has a few areas pointed out by iBankcoin & Tim...

As for my co-worker (i'll call him #2), i was surprised he didnt want to hold at least some of his FAZ. If anything i told him had he bought some underlying puts then that would have offset his loses for the day or even make him profitable. Alas, he is still gunshy and having been a 'victim' of the dot com bubble it is understandable. Fight another day... Fine, but this market is so volitile, he may regret having sold ALL of his FAZ & SRS...

We shall see if the bulls can win another day...