Monday, June 30, 2008

Sold one/Missed selling other

Well, not exactly as planned... kinda break even-ish

Sold Palm Aug5put 100% gain... BUT...
Missed selling USO july111call (would have been 15% gain). I forgot to set my stops last night.

As for today. I didnt see anything that told me it was a good idea to enter an index put. Even though Auto/construction news comes tomorrow, the technicals suggest a rally. Which is good because I want cheaper puts.

Energy was a winner. Particularly HK & SFY. There are others of course.

I missed the BIG move in PCLN. Totally lost track of it. The put buy was this past Friday, after the confirmed bear close the past Thursday (7/26/08 from Tim). Chances are it firms up a bit from here. Their earnings report is in August. Depending on how it does this week, i may enter the position. But consider this a lost 100+% gain opportunity.

My eye is firmly fix tomorrow on Oil inventory numbers. If they are higher than expected, we will find a dip. If supply is lower than expected. I might need to get in there FAST... As the Bear perfect storm of high Oil and possibly damaging unemployment numbers come thursday.

For now i am holding Aug110call. Maybe we get another spike... who knows. Clarity after crude numbers @430am HST.
It really is simple...

WOW... HK/PCLN (90 minutes til bell)

HK breakout... PCLN breakdown.

HK is headed to 50s for sure.
PCLN is headed to double digits for sure. earnings report in August

I am waiting for the sessions end to decide, which positions to enter. Too many ʻoptionsʻ to consider...

Still holding
PALM Aug5put
RIMM July100put
USO July110call
RHT Jan12.5put

Sunday, June 29, 2008

This Week (June 30 - July 3) Outlined Plan (Position for Eco news)

This week:
July 1: Auto Sales/Construction spending
July 2: Factory Orders/crude inventories
July 3: Unemployment rate

So here is my plan for this week...
June 30: See market sentiment
- hopefully there is a bounce, to get in cheaper index puts/shorts
- Auto/Construction may already be priced in, but get first index position

July 1: See how the market opens/market sentiment
- If auto/construction leaves market flat hold 1st index position (but take profit)
- leave my one call on oil if stays flat. but sell at profit
****crude inventories lately seem to be more than expected (greater supply)

July 2: i think there might be a dip in oil/energy it after crude numbers, dip in energy means possibly cheaper index puts.
- buy oil/energy after numbers released (4:30a HST) AND
- buy index puts/ultrashorts if have not done so already.
- i like DIA & SPY puts or SDS calls.
- IWM put maybe, it depends. The Russell is volatile and may close where it opened

July 3: Unemployment numbers are out early. It is worth my getting up (*sigh* 3:30a HST)
- SELL for PROFIT (especially security puts) if market tanks... otherwise, let it ride if it opens flat or even higher.
- If sold positions, Re-enter index puts/oil calls at end of session, uneasiness during the weekend may spur more selling the next week. it depends on what the Unemployment numbers are... mind you there are ALOT of people fired from brokerages houses, banks, airlines... but we shall see how it affects overall numbers.

To some it up, buy Oil/Energy dip (possibly July 2)
Buy Index put/shorts July 2...

Hmm maybe i should focus on July 2nd instead of July 3rd

Friday, June 27, 2008

SOLD yesterdays positions...

Woke up 330am HST... and quickly did the following...

SOLD my puts in QQQQ and calls in SDS...
i figured there would be a bounce later in the session. i then went to sleep...

Woke up 730am HST...
the nice surprise was july100put at 100% gain @3:30am... BUT BROKE ONE OF MY RULES! Like a dummy i held it... so sold it break even 7:30am...(which was smart). i then re-entered with:
bought july95puts (which i failed to remove on my order, i could have got a cheaper limit, but got distracted looking at Coal) - i think it will be awhile before it goes double digits, so i am counting it a loss.

Held Red Hat jan12.5put... potential there
Held Palm aug5put... it was dirt cheap, couldnt resist.

BOUGHT USO July111call (7:30am HST)
-failed to add MORE to that USO position due to an error in my brokerage account. in any case i will have something on the side for Monday.

I briefly looked at PCX & HK. But i got locked out of my account... i will have to wait til monday. PCX is looking mighty good... if it crosses 165, the basic chart reader will need it to base out first before jumping in. On the other hand if it broke out HARD and kept its base... by all means be safe and do an ITM call.

Anyway, the disciplined trading has payed off thus far.
USO is the only definite position i have confidence in... Coal as well, but i dont own any of it. I will be content with the minor gains on a day that could have gone bad.

i am watching PCLN quite closely - it is too tied with Airlines not to look at...

July 3... 7/3... 3rd of July...

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Here is a good idea from a perma bear

PCLN... you know capt Kirk commercials. kinda funny. but i am sure he wouldnt think this chart to be funny at all. why?

1) Fundamentals
- Airlines are not going to give anymore ʻcheapʻ tix or leave open seats for PCLN to sell.
2) Technicals
- you can eyeball its failed attempt to break 140 and see the candlestick highs line up perfectly DOWNWARD.

anyway... thx to Tim for this pick. its worth watching. look how low it can go...

OIL & $Indu

This is it... No more Oil going down any time this summer. I wish I left my USO Aug110call alone but... I was waiting for Oil to cross $140/barrel. It actually whacked 141 at the time of this post.

So, the plan is to basically go after another call strike on USO. catch this breakout... even if it is just a bit late...

We may have ourselves $150/barrel by July 4, as some have indeed suggested. Someone at the gas station today came out and told my wife and I that Gas will go up 10 cents tomorrow and that Oil will be $180 by the end of summer...
See, the media is feeding this to everyone now... old news if you follow investments.

Either way, even if there is a bounce tomorrow in general equities, Oil will suck them back down and then some and finally, Mr. Tim himself provided a strong Fib argument for a bounce in DJI or a.k.a. $INDU. He was worried about the Dow running into trouble with the 11,500 fib line... Well looks like it dropped right past it... We shall see how tomorrow goes, but I think some real bleeding in the markets will actually come July 3rd... people are really gonna get tired of that date

SOLD yesterdays puts TOO early...

I left a few bills on the table... but i wanted the profit... and move slightly to safety...

I sold USO when it was stuck around 111.... it shot up to 113 a 1/2 hour later

HOWEVER, the new positions have already posted at least a small gain or neutral... making up for commissions.

SOLD PUTS! and bought others... bounce concerns

Nke July55put for .55 (bought yesterday at .10 man shoulda bought 50 options, yeah right... )
DIA sept118put: Repositioned elsewhere
USO aug110call: not sure if Oil $/barrel will break past 140 just yet...
NCOC shares: gonna put my $ elsewhere next week...

SDS sept63call: action gaining, hope they start bidding it up
QQQQ aug48put: get deeper ITM, tech will suffer more than other sectors
Palm july5put: you think RIMM was bad?
RIM july100put: i doubt it will get to 100 but worth a shot
funny i tried to get RIMM july90put ystrday for like .06 didnt want to pay .10, should have tried harder no?

RIMM puts were the definite winner of the day...
I am not throwing a parade... in fact I am a bit worried about my puts getting pounded if we get a little bounce tomorrow... I can thank Mr. Tim for that one. He sees support @ 11.5K for the Dow...

Anyway, i think the market may very will stink it up for awhile... remember the Morgan Stanley guy? He said, "Catastrophe in the near future..." Well, to be honest 11,500 for the Dow is still subject to bounce, however BELOW 11,500 then you will have the media saying, "How low can you go..."

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Congrats RIMM ʻputʻters... and well everyone who shorted earnings

All them got varying degrees of smack
first up the only big name that reported during session: MON: > -3% (as much as -6%)

Then you have the after-hour crowd:
RHT: -0.85%
RIMM: > -7%
NKE: > - 5%
ORCL > -3%

lovely isnt it? For bears... who are we kidding here FED? In any case, I may not have been able get a put position in any of them, but i sure was able to do so via the one ʻputʻ for the general market. i did failed to get puts in NKE (retail is not where you want to be) & but did RHT jan12.5put. I think their proposed guidance will smack them...

RIMM gets the ʻdisappointed awardʻ usually given to AAPL when there is a run up to earnings.

Energy (namely coals) and Ags made a nice rebound. Of interest is PCX which looked mighty powerful! It did a huge 9% turn around. Now that we know where it was, we have an idea of where it could go from here 160+ (sept165call looks tempting). being that i do options i can wait for clear signals at that point. HK mustered itself to finish green. i will await it breaking 44 and go with the momentum from there.

The big news left that awaits July 3rd! Then the nation can celebrate (mourn) its economic situation on July 4. How nice, throwing away or in this case blowing up more money in the form of colorful fireworks... I dont celebrate July 4 myself, but if anyone out there does... you can see the irony in all of this... but excuse my sarcasm.

Well Here We Go Bought USO call/DIA put and sold DBA

A perfect storm may not be brewing but it is a weird position to enter. I bought the following with a time stamp for my ref in relation to the FED 2:15.
USO Aug110call (1:40 pm EST) wish i bought it when it touched 106+
DIA Sept118put (1:59 pm EST) not enough trading with SDS calls.

As expected no rate change planned. the minute charts are these straight vertical lines that almost cover the whole chart in a couple cases, volatile for sure. But we are still left with the question... Now what?

btw, i dont have enough capital for RIMM I will watch everyone else have fun with that. i wouldnt be surprised if it went either way. iPhone wont have its full affect til next year at the earliest on RIMM thx to that dumb AT&T deal. Apple missed out on T-mobile & Alcatal customers. Anyway, they still wouldnt have gotten Verizon & Sprint with their different type of frequencies. The US is dumb when it comes to mobile carriers. RIMM has done an awesome job covering EVERY carrier possible in the US.

I Sold DBA (@2:11 pm EST too early yes...) but i couldnt help but see POT/MON/IPI/AGU, etc all taking hits today and not believe it would eventually catch up with DBA. so took a small loss... with the thought of using it next week...

US Crude Oil... then eventually the FED

So, inventories came in higher than expected in the U.S. And No strike in Nigeria.

USO getting pounded as is actual $oil/barrel

Next set up for today is in about 3 hours... the FED.

This is the most I have watched the market in awhile...


It is getting whacked despite the NASDAQ being up... What a nice set up for a possible surprise earning... but one would be careful to venture in that direction prior to the FED.

Economic Clarity is needed to position for earnings.

Crude numbers should have been out by now... oh well waiting continues. back to work.

(update 509a HST: RIMM finds a first bounce on a low of 137+)

Predictable Bounce

So here was the bounce i was waiting for on Monday.

MON is getting pounded at the time of this post as well as all Shorts/bears.

The first part of the fun stuff begins in a few minutes with Crude Oil inventory numbers.

Posting again as able... i am after all at work (night shift)

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

DJI daily... weekly... is weAkly

So here is the Dowʻs daily... it has been trading under the 200 MA for some time now.

Now check out the weekly chart... either way some huge movement is coming soon.

Tomorrow could be a yawn if the FED holds rates. the thing is when they say any other stuff is the thing where things are uncertain. but what we do know is this...
If they indeed raise rates, Kaboom... maybe short your USO... but look out maybe you should short everything
If they cut rates, Kaboom get your USO!.
See, itʻs oil (and gold & the $US)... so what is new? NOTHING...


I failed to get my first position. DIA Aug119put. And attempted to sell my Ag ETF in the form of DBA. didnt work either...

Anyway, the plan tomorrow is to position for a general fall in the market related to the FED. No one expects a rate cut announcement or plan. So why not position one call however unlikely it may be why not buy a DIA june122 or 123 call just in case with a DIA 120put for July, Aug or Sept... The same can be said for SPY & IWM. I am also looking at Sept/Dec 63call for SDS.

the point is i am looking to short indexes and the general market.
energy will still be a place of relative safety - altho i am down to only owning NCOC stocks... wish i sold them yesterday to position for what awaits tomorrow...

there happens to be a number of earnings reports tomorrow, namely RIMM, NKE, ORCL & MON. big names... the first three report after market closes. but i am more interested in waiting patiently for 2pm EST or 8am HST to plug in my market shorts... i may change my mind regarding everything above and lessen risk by buying Dec options instead...

ok i worked graveyard shift...back to sleep.

Bad News coming soon... (corrected after error)

Well, it is not like any bad news is a surprise. The thing is that if things are bad, but NOT AS BAD as the market expects - then we may have a small rally. Otherwise I think the following is worth positioning

News wise Wednesday... FED FOMC & housing
Thursday...... Oil inventories, GDP, home sales
Friday..... Inflationary numbers
Next week (July 3) is the big one... UNEMPLOYMENT. some say all the bad news is expected. So, what? Has it bottomed? Nope. (as an example UAL may be laying off hundreds of pilots!... people with 3 figures will no longer spend... logic)

so i have the following on my watch...
SDS calls, SRS calls, DIA & SPY puts...

In any case it is better to wait then hope to win a losing position...

(i had to fix this post as the news for this week were in error. I originally thought FED was today. nope...)

Monday, June 23, 2008

Another HK sold! PCX candlestick... RIMM... ADBE..

My last call with HK was triggered. 20% gain. Not bad at all... And I didnt decide in the moment. I might have held this longer had i not set a trigger, but my goals have become conservative with a view to preserving capital.

I will wait again for another entry. Patience is key for me...

PCX... hmm one candle stick pattern calls for three down days followed by a STRONG gap... we will see tomorrow. The other coals are on fire, it doesnt make sense to me why PCX wont follow the sector trend.

RIMM earnings reports June 25... after market. I am looking to do a ʻstrangleʻ. I really dont like tech right now, but the moves are quick and furious (altho it didnt work for me on ADBE puts, which btw has its 50 & 200 day MAʻs crossing last friday... going down from here i think.)

Whats Happened to PCX? SDS on hold...

Coal plays are green EVERYWHERE... but not for former leader PCX. Well, I am actually happy the call premiums were too expensive for me... but I still think it will head higher long term.

As for SDS, I didnt get a DOW pop that I was hoping for. It stands to reason that the weakness today has nothing to do with future credit/housing news... but Oil (again). sounds like a broken record/CD no MP3 player...

There are a number of traders out there buying up RIG. I am content with HK. DBA though has slowed up, but may be due for a pop somewhere...

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Looking For A Bounce & An Entry into an UltraShort

Well, the DOW closes down 200 last week. Under a somewhat important 12K level.
But as you know nothing goes straight down now does it. So this week I expect a strong bounce across the board. So am I bullish this week? Sure that is what the technicals say. HOWEVER, what I am really looking for is an entry to an ULTRASHORT, namely SDS.

The thing is I think the DOW will eventually head to *sarcastic gasp* below 11K by years end. So my thinking is an In the money SDS Dec55 or 60 call. Time and "catastrophic events" as Morgan Stanley puts it is very real... Unemployment numbers will not improve. There will be less vacationers out there to places like here (Hawaii: where the hotel occupancy has dropped).

SDS premiums are reasonable

Anyway, that is my main position I am looking at for the year. So, sure we get a bounce here and there. But it is when the floor that drops from under us that I am waiting for. (This is what Tim waits for, but it seems he waits for it like every other day)...

Oil/Energy/Ag will fill in the rest of the gaps for me. I still have HK & DBA long calls. I have 2 FXI puts that I bought ages ago, but it expires in January 2009.

Until the new president comes in, I think the economy numbers will stink up Wall Street and the reality of the recession will go full bore.

Friday, June 20, 2008


Mind you i should have woke up early this morning to get HK out. I left my Sept45call alone. But i took whatever profit was left on Sept40call. bummer it was up 60+% in like 2 days. wont happen again trust me. But for now the prudent move was preserving my position. HK i have questions as to it sticking here. But i saw it at 36 just 3 days ago... If it hangs here it should be ok. I am glad i didnt have a JULY call. That would have been disasterous if that is a word

DBA is still holding strong to its base

My eyes are still on PCX, HK, SKF, USO (channel continual)... and now IPI (bare 3 months old but look at it up 15% in one month).

I will let my rule hold... get some kind of profit from HK & DBA before speculating on something else. It is easier to lose money than to make it in this market. again... i will sell for quick profit from momentum stocks next time around...

Coal... Oil... and another new momentum...

They have this saying in one ʻpagan originated holidayʻ. I got coal in my stocking.

Well, i tell you that is kinda how i feel today. Oil up... Coal... well, more profit taking. (Gio did warn). Albeit I wish i cashed that 60% one day profit on one of my calls.

As for USO, it is definitely sticking to the channel. it is a buy here. but something no one should hold beyond another green day.

As for SKF. I am so bummed i dont have enough capital to get in there. i have been saying that it is a winner for the summer. *sigh*

Anyway, i will add today to my list of ways how not to trade... cash profits fast in momentum stocks like any other. especially into options expiration friday, which is a nice time to buy...

This summer will be kinda boring regarding sports(sorry baseball, i wait for penant/world series). Maybe Olympics. I think Kobe is has some angst to take out his frustration on the world. Pierce had a great NBA Finals. He should be on the Olympic team. Anyway, Kobe will reestablish himself. And all this comparison about him versus Jordan I think has finally stopped.

One last thing... IPI. There is another momentum stock for you...

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Like I Said...Itʻs about the Oil... btw SKF may be a buy.

My failure yesterday to have gotten out of HK ITM meant some lost ground today. I am unsure as to what is going on with oil at this point. I still think there is a spike that will come somewhere. I am glad that I didnt get greedy and go for some short term calls.

It seems as the momentum stocks: coal/energy have some profit taking going on. For the most part their was some recovery, but their leader PCX took a whacking. I think it may be a buy at the end of Fridays session if it stays red. Is this a fakeout by the big guns? the Wall Street Mafia? maybe... But for the most part it is all about the oil... The trading range i observed (and posted something similar earlier) has been 132 to 135 if you are looking at a tight range, but it goes as far as 130 to 139.

i still have some cash... i aint touching it. Another opportunity awaits maybe as soon as Friday...

Dont get greedy... stay disciplined. Do i wish i cashed in the profit earlier? sure... but i am glad i have the calls a few months out to filter out my lack of... discipline... i may buy some USO puts to hedge my HK & DBA...

SKF looks good. i mean BSC executives in trouble with the Law... and MS predicting a catastrophic coming. Uh.. hello? Not it not new... Credit/housing/fuel... and watch out when a solid negative unemployment comes out... so for now, i think SKF may be the surest of the picks i have been watching... It too benefitted from Oil getting knocked around.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

One more thing... AAPL

These analysts are nuts... Look at this latest iPhone figure being thrown out there... 150,000,000 in the next 10 years. Anyone can say that and have a theoretical chart/calculation to prove that theory. But common now, we are getting WAY ahead of ourselves.

I am not even sure the world as we know it will last that long to begin with (take that statement however you want.) I am tired of these analysts trying to MAKE news and manipulate stocks. but that is how it goes...

150 million? or 15 million every year the next 10 years sounds plausible... but it sure was made to grab some attention...

I refuse to touch AAPL until it crosses 200... well, firmly above 200, that is 205 to be exact...

Oil/Energy Strength... while PCX Amazing

I was really unsure at one point what to think of energy... I saw USO <108 (which i considered its base) being tested. A solid turn around to say the least. And I slept through the last 2 HR & 55 min of the market before doing the following. (5 minutes is too short of a time)

I added to my HK today. The thing is I tried to flip my ITM HK sept call to get enough capital for an entry into PCX, but alas my hands were too slow. I was only able to buy an OTM HK Sept45call. *sigh*

Mind you i still like HK this far out...But PCX is a monster (This years FSLR)! I say 200! But if I cannot get in Gio has given me a couple choices
That is NCOC & ICO (I like ICO because of the options of course), they are dirt cheap. But i wasnt quick enough to get in that one either.

I think i want to also add UNG to the mix somewhere down the line...

For now, consider it a nice bounce off a bottom for Oil. The real time (you see to your right) shows it pulling back a bit at the time of this post but, the $/barrel is solidifying itself above $135 (having been stuck 133 to 134 the last few sessions). It will have to break through 139 as the next resistance. From there $150 may be realized as some suggest by July 4. That is capitalism for yah.

FDX & MS Earnings & Oil/Energy

FDX well with gas prices up is anyone surprised? Puts would have been nice, but i have only so much capital to go around.

MS also stunk things up as well. Man i wish i did dip into SKF... It was a bit too pricey for me. but one might spec this goes past its 52 week high.

Oil inventories: 1030 am report will be the nail in the coffin for most stocks, unless you are in energy... Oil $/barrel is >135 as i type this.

Anyway, i may add to my HK, but will look elsewhere too...maybe CRK... i will be patient and wait for the actual crude report. There is much time to make moolah in energy...

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Waiting... On PCX. HK/DBA solid for now. Oil tomorrow

Well, DBA & HK are working out nicely, wish a bought a couple more calls, but it is always a good idea to get a pay off before adding to risk. I missed Gioʻs earlier post on BTU (i was actually looking at that earlier this year), it is a favorite among coal plays.

ADBE & LEH were poorly timed, but had i waited to buy their puts just prior to earnings and farther out in time, i would have had a return.

CRK (as suggested by Gio) i noticed had solid technicals. you cannot dispute the chart. Compare FSLR last year with CRK this year and you can see where this is going.

In regards to PCX... there is some consolidating going on. the upside is real. Crude oil numbers will be out tomorrow... will see how it affects other energy related securities. But i need to find a way to get in PCX for sure... it has everything going for it, newly publicly traded, the $ are flowing into its sector, and the charts...

LAKERS play tonight. I think they will lose. But if they are going to take advantage of the Celtics aging/injured team then tonight is the night. I am tired of how the media keeps bringing up Gasol being soft (or maybe that is a good motivation thing) and how much the Celtics are banged up... Hey you dont see the Lakers crying over not having Bynum. The series would have been done by now if he was around. Would Garnett or Perkins be labelled soft if they were getting bulldozed by Bynum? Nope. They would say weight and strength advantage. That is all that is. I respect Doc Rivers for not complaining. He is a good coach. The Lakers have grown up ALOT this year. I expect them to bust their butts in the summer. Gasol should lift some weights... Everything else in his game is solid, he just needs to do more squats and upper body stuff to deal with the Power Forwards next year. I do predict that the Finals next year will be....

Celtics & Lakers again...

No sports to watch until September Football... Which is good - I have important stuff to get done until then.

Monday, June 16, 2008

Argh!!! Couldnt Pull the Trigger

That USO <109 kept staring at me... nope "not gonna do it". It was EXTREMELY tempting to position for a bottom channel entry. Looking at the 5 day chart, USO could actually get whacked tomorrow.

ADBE did ok. So, no bear parade there. LEH, yawn...

DBA & HK are small negatives for me at this point. We will see what happens come June 18... there will either be a breakout for oil or at worse it flattens off the rest of the summer.


If you bought at the close yesterday and proceeded to put a sell order today... congrats to you... USO is stuck for now to this 108 to 113 channel. This may be consolidating towards some sort of spike (June 18 specifically). I am no longer putting anything in as my lame June120call still sits. I am glad I cashed out the July97call last week.

I was so tempted to jump into USO when it dipped at my supposed entry today <109. But I went with Gio on this one... Other ETFs have been getting some love. And why risk doing calls in july when i can move them 3 to 4 months away... That being the case i went with DBA Oct40call & HK Sep40call. Why stress with the time decay... whew... They both like oil going up while not getting stuck like USO.

In regards to LEH/ADBE... I didnt put much $ into them, but my feeling was that BSC didnt go down right away, but a few days after earnings. As for ADBE it has til July to get smashed so i am not too concerned about 5 calls costing me $35.

All those that shorted AAPL on the skinny Steve are just plain hilarious... if your entry was 170 today you are golden.

Sunday, June 15, 2008

Mixed Messages On Oil...Other stuff... Lakers (likely lose next game)

So someone from Saudi says they will increase oil production by 200K barrels/month. Then another news item says that OPEC will not make any news decisions on production amounts until Sept 9. hmmm. Anyway, i think USO goes down a bit on Monday.

The real news this week includes earnings reports from LEH & GS. I think GS will again buck their competitors with a profit. However, guidance and observations on banks/credit in general will be key.

This will be a week of uncertainty in regards to the way Wall Street reacts in dissecting statements from earnings conferences.

What is on my radar is PCX. Will it cool off on oil news or be resistant and carry on the momentum. Will banks drag the whole market down? Anyway, it is key to see where the money is flowing to.

Another thing to watch is DBA (thx Gio). The option contracts are plentiful and relatively cheap. For example an Oct40call@3.43 is not bad at all. You have both time on your side and it is in the money. Food prices will not go down this summer, especially if the fuel folks are still making gas out of our Food. Thx guys...

I do have a few puts worth mentioning: ADBE & LEH. that is stuff that will only score on disaster like reports.

So, watchlist: ADBE, DBA, LEH, PCX, USO, SKF.

Lakers stave off elimination. But i think it is a tough call the rest of the way. I think that they lose Game 6... What i read about regarding game 5 was totally expected. It is interesting that the Lakers score most of their points in the first period. Imagine if they had the killer instinct (and Bynum). I think the series would have been 4-1 Lakers. But Bynum is nowhere to be found til next year. At this juncture I think I will congratulate the Lakers on a great season... I would force them to watch how they blew a 20+point lead into half of the 3rd period if they reach the Finals next year.

Friday, June 13, 2008

SKF... Looks good - but wait...

I am on the watch on energy. But i tell you the one thatʻs like a ticking time-bomb INHO is SKF. A deep in the money call looks good.

A younger dude that taught me some stuff recommends energy... that is LOCAL, in North America.
Here is his rundown: PCX, CRK, HK. I listed them in the order that i like... I mean look at the chart yourself!

Well, i never knew of these tickers. I am totally blown away by their charts. I pick PCX as the equivalent to last years FSLR. There are a number of things i like besides the technicals. I always liked coal... it is a usual pick for winter, but in this case if you wait to get in at that time, you will be slapping yourself silly...

One nice parameter in choosing a stock is finding one with momentum with <15 years history... or relatively new. And you can see that PCX carries that new hot stock... it has been public for like hmm 7 months? now June 18 is a big day for oil... if it goes down, will the coal sector fall with it? Donʻt know.

Anyway, thx to Gio, i have been waiting for something else besides USO & V... and SKF is somewhat long in the tooth (but do not discount the fact that there is a ton of bad news that awaits the rest of this year...) For now PCX looks to be something to grab on to with a lot of option action. I am looking for deep calls.

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Next Year Lakers... back to USO

Well a nice entry (that i missed). I didnt touch USO @ 110. It did finish up, but i think going forward it will be going sideways a bit and then BAM! a spike... much as it did when it broke to 113 last friday.

I have no choice regarding USO but to wait it out until it finds another pull back.

As i said RIMM will be getting hit for the time being... But my attention is on ADBE taking the brunt.

Speaking of taking the brunt... The Lakers blew a 24 pt lead, which almost happen to the Celtics in game 2. I didnt actually watch it happen. And i was glad for that. The series is basically over. The Lakers miss Bynum.

Lakers 1-3. I think they will win the next game. But winning all 3 in a row... well you know how that usually goes. I am sure the Purple and Gold people as myself dont like their team losing, but at least the future is VERY bright... The only team stopping them next year are the Blazers... i dont think Houston can handle the Lakers front line.

I know the series is not over, but i must say... i have accepted defeat... and being that i follow the Raiders, it is something that i have gotten use to.

I do think that after this year... the Lakers will be on a mission next year... btw, my Penguins lost too... both in the championship of the respective sport. Maybe that means the Raiders will be in the Superbowl... maybe not.

Waiting... USO...

So i got the pull back on SKF. But i think it would be best to wait it out until GS reports June 17. I am unsure how much LEH goes lower - but it will. I predict all the news about them removing the board is meant to ease things. But again, GS continues to buck all other banks/financial in terms of earnings day

USO is having a rally second half of the day. I am looking at maybe getting back in at July97call (again). It seems cheap here. I wish i was able to buy at the open... But i know enough not to play with poison. If it gets <110. It looks to be a buy. A solid base has formed above 100 and a minor one at 108 (wish i got in...)

Looking at some other charts. RIMM looks like it will go slowly down for some time - until earnings. It keeps beating and with adequate guidance. But for the time being it may be a nice short next week. Let this week pan out. AAPL usually gets a beating in comparison to RIMM as is the case today. I saw that coming...

Lakers/Celtics. Lakers are still in survivor mode. They have to at least win tonight to keep the series going. Otherwise, hasta la vista.

btw, windows Vista must really stink if MSFT is allowing people to downgrade to XP after buying a Vista box. I havent experience any problems with my very short time in Vista. But all these horror stories come out when i talk to Vista users. Windows 7 should be better since it sounds like they are actually taking their time on the basic foundations of the OS... blabbing again.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

SOLD USO!!! And bought stuff... And useless basketball blab

I ended up selling my July97call. And keeping my June120call (maybe i should have sold a little of it at a small loss). There is some oil news tomorrow that could send USO flying, but who knows... Decided to take the 30%+ profit now. It happened that my timing was pretty spot on... just before USO bumped against 112. It closed @111. Nothing to gloat about, i had a bigger profit this past Friday had i just paid attention to my account. A really bad habit. Avoiding looking at something painful will only get worse later.

Bought a meager amount of V (a bit too early), but still <80. I think it goes low to mid 70s from here.

I also got a few of ADBE June35puts@.05. I think there have been just a few reports on possible problems for ADBE going forward. But no big news yet... so, some damaging guidance may pop up... and a 10 to 12.5% pull back is more than possible...

I failed to get LEH June20put. I tried to get in @.48, but it ran off to 1.18 (bummer) while i was sleeping. May try again tomorrow as they report Monday. I am unsure whether the bad news is already priced in. Thus, I am considering SKF. But i need to see some pull back for a better entry that may not arrive.

Otherwise, the vast meager $ i have is in cash. Just trying to be patient...

That is what the Lakers need to be against the Celtics - patience. If they do win it, which would be against logic based on the series so far, it will be a huge comeback - even if they are playing at home the next 2 games. And the Media are all up on the Celtics side, that will either motivate the purple and gold, or mean they have to try again next year. Laker fans likely prefer being the underdog rather than the favorite in this setting. A sense of urgency is needed on their part... The Celtics have always shown it... they already experienced enough of it in the East post season.

Forgetting Passwords

I am thankful that Ameritrade provides additional security if i was to even look at my account. BUT, the downside is when i cant remember the answers to the security questions. lame on me.

Anyway. FXP looks like it can blow up right after the Olympics. I still have a couple ridiculous Jan50puts bought back earlier this year.

SKF is probably the best place to be right now. much better than USO. But because i cant get into my account at the time of this typing, i have no way of getting in. LEH keeps sinking and may actually go green at next weeks earnings report as all the negative news may already be priced in.

Btw, V is below 80 again. Is it a buy here? Dunno but it is at a recently weekly low. I would buy below 75.

I have to get back home just to get into my account.

LEH, USO & Another useless Lakers post...

Well i was hoping today (actually yesterday 6/10/08) that LEH would find some positive territory all to allow me a nice entry on a LEAP put. Didnt happen.

And to make matters worse, it seems as though USO has lost some of the momentum i previously mentioned. The actual oil comod is up as i type this, but it doesnt seem to have as much of an effect if it doesnt have a strong specs on the call side. The strengthened dollar also has cut USO's legs a bit.

Lakers down 1-2. Celtics could have won this one. If it were Pierce instead of Allen that was the hot hand, I think the Lakers would have lost.

I never actually watched the game as i promised in a previous post. At least they wont get swept. All the talk of Laker's bench being superior is not true at all. Outside of Vuja*&^% & maybe Farmar - everyone else seems hesistant. The Lakers need after the post season may include someone from Detroit... I dont think the Lakers will have any problem attracting a player to take a pay cut and get a ring in the process.

It doesnt get any easier in THIS series for the Lakers IMHO. However, remember that this was the first time the Lakers beat them this season. Oh, and they need to practice some free throws.

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

USO Lame

Dollar strengthens today leading to weaker value of oil. My June120call is practically dead unless another spike happens.

Everything bullish is up today.... Power of oilʻs influence.

Lakers 0-3 tonight? Maybe... you know things are not headed the right way if most people pick you to win. Its tough being the favorites and losing.

Monday, June 9, 2008

Oh Well... USO... No surprises this time

Profit taking... In the biggest way. And i must say that is the only thing that bums me out about the whole deal. Had i even known about the think spiking on Friday. I would have sold in a heart beat. But as it is, that was a whole lot better than being -%50 in the loss column. i especially wished i could have cashed out my June120call. July has some time on its side.

For the time being, Oil/barrel actually is over $135 as i type this. So, where it goes from here? Not sure. But the momentum is towards the upside. There are some oil related reports this thursday/friday.

As for iPhone 3G i didnt expect anything out of the ordinary. A coleague asked if i would take call position on AAPL today based on WWDC, but i was hesistant to say anything definite. The true test is how it will sell on July 11. But as i said before, this stock is poison until it finds a solid base ABOVE 200.

And one other position to mention is LEH. it reported a bit early... but it may be a good LONG Put/or LEAP Put. If it is anywhere near as much trouble as BSC, the reward will be great....

Lakers 0-2. No surprise there either. I may be a Laker follower, but versus the 1980ʻs i DONT hate this Celtic team. There are some class acts. I just hope the Lakers can make it a series.

Friday, June 6, 2008

Oil... Again... Surprised.

Funny thing happened today. I walk into work and told a fellow co-worker. "Stay away from USO! I am losing a bundle..." Guess what happened today. I was surprised just literally a few minutes ago, expecting to wallow in my sorrow in USO. (HEY THAT RHYMES!)

OIL HAD ITS BIGGEST DAY... according to finance reporters. Some saying it may go to $150 BEFORE July... yikes!

Well, i am no way gloating... i am in fact shocked. My spec on USO was on, BUT the timing of my buy was terrible. Recently when the thing crossed <100, i thought, man it would be a definite buy here. But i was already sitting on losses as i bought it back at about 103 with option call strikes placed @97 & 120.

I am unsure exactly where it goes from here. but there is no way it goes below 100. It was a solid breakthrough its previous high.

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Tough... Dumb...

Well selling V has now fully eaten me in the butt. Its well over where i sold. $78/79. Mind you i do believe it will keep going up albeit eventually. Do i regret selling? Yes... Do i wish i bought below 80? Yes...

My USO has taken such a beating. The whispers are that Oil has peaked. You know what, i dont believe these guys. True, the media is pumping the belief that gas will go up indefinitely. The mix signals are burning everyone to some degree.

Something similar came when the street dudes burned all the shorts on airlines. If u look at my past posts i was in disbelief how that rally happened. A fake out to the greatest degree. If you look at them today... Most if not all are single digits. I havent looked at hotels yet. But they will fall this summer as well. Hawaii alone has booked the lowest occupancy in months...

Now as regards USO, the storms/hurricanes would obviously spike this thing. But it is all speculation. If USO dips below 100... It's adios for me. It looks like i will be back to meager cash when that happens.

My buddy elsewhere has a LONG recommendation on UA. I for the most part agree. It is the next Nike. It is just above its lows. Anyway, the fact that it is cheap mid 30s has me taking a serious look. The economy just stinks and any company that just meets earnings may be all that is needed to get through these bad times.

The ultimate LONG out there is still out there. AAPL. Look for a possible spike this friday as details of the iPhone 2.0/3G whatever will be out.