Wednesday, November 26, 2008

AHA! DUG watch... RIMM... Hopeful Rally... & HTX

Its approaching its 52 wk low. Awesome. Regarding one can easily say that this is how oil trades to begin with... Oil goes up in late spring through summer and comes back down again. Its just that we had an extreme version this year. Sure I kinda agree with that. But know this that Mr. Obama is not an oil lover. Thus, I love DUG falling like a rock until Jan "something" when the dude gets in office. I hate politics otherwise.

RIMM... this is a heads up on next Q earnings. 'Put' it
The BlackBerry Storm is getting bad review after bad review. I like my BlackBerry (Pearl), so i am not a hater... This doesnt bode well for the stock. The Storm was suppose to stop switchers going over to the iPhone... The only ones buying the Storm are VZ people who have no choice. But from what I am reading, people bring it home and get tired of texting on the thing with its click screen. The OS/software hasnt adapted well away from the scroll ball navigation. I foresee BlackBerry spending more $ on ads (ala MSFT - VISTA). But bad product is just bad product. There are nice things about it, but its main feature the click screen will kill it... If you dont believe me, this one statement from one site says it all - "Vista got better reviews." or the NY Times says "I've got a better name for it: BlackBerry Dud." Wait for them puts next Q earnings report.

Well, i do hope this rally carries to years end. It only sets up for a nice Bearish start of the new year.

It finally stop dropping so fast... It will eventually drop with the dividend pay out, thus my puts are in play. But i need some value left in the position to sell. So I continue to hope the Rally continues at least past the pay out.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Like I said yesterday... Landmines... I 'Kinda' Told You Look Out

Boom... Bam... sorry rally oh wait... Bam...

Well, thats the kind of day i pictured today... So far its been this way. I was hoping for another follow through, but i knew the eco news this week would do some damage if not temper a runaway rally.

Well, it was the GDP that whacked the market. And yesterdays post has a list of what eco news to look at come tomorrow.

I sit on my HTX... yes they are in the red... but remember, i have puts that were waiting for this to happen.

Remember, all this up and down stuff doesnt matter, its where we close the day.

Monday, November 24, 2008

Landmines to Negate The Turkey Or Visa Versa

My crazy scottrade acct left my order yesterday as AZK open, when it didnt get in yesterday. I really didnt want it to go through... oh well. Gold goes higher from here

Well, Home sales were down but that didnt stop the Rally

Tuesday: GDP & Consumer confidence are in play
Wednesday: Income, Jobless claims, New Home sales

I will learn to strategize from TIM, FLY, GIO, ChartSwing, StockBee. Going long this week despite the eco news seems to be what the street is leaning towards with history to back it up. Then again we havent had the kind of volatility in past markets so, who knows.

I am happy to sit with HTX stock and put protection to boot for now and wait for the dividend.

No real trades for me til Dec 2nd

You Probably Already Saw this Clip... Peter Schiff

Peter Laffer... your are such a joke... I 'LAUGH' at you.
Tom Adkins you looked like an idiot that day - now you ARE an idiot.
Mike Norman... in answer to you: "NO, you dont know what you are talking about..." Now I am LAUGHING at YOU Mr. Norman.
Charles Payne... YOU are feeling the 'pain'. He chose WM!!! ha!!!
Unknown Female... just be happy your name wasnt on the screen.

The BEARS love you 5 idiots... My guess is we will see you again on any extended Rally.

Cavuto... you are suppose to be the moderate not lean in a direction. You are worse than ALL of CNBC. (But not worse than Cramer)

The only one that had class in those clips was Ben Stein. He wrote a NY Times piece apologized saying Mr. Schiff was right.

Enjoy this nice Bear rally. I am licking my chops to get back to puts once i get my HTX dividend.

Mr. Schiff predicted Gold... GLD... enough said, I will lie in wait.

I FORGOT TO MENTION... sold YHOO PUT on Friday... Stuff

Well, its late but i am still unwinding form evening shift at work.

Anyway, i forgot to post that i sold out my YHOO puts for a 100% gain. AND i am wondering if i should have also sold my other NOC put too.

Anyway, I have a few puts out there (HTX, NOC) and some old calls (AAPL, POT, YHOO, PCX). If you notice, all of my calls are high flyers that move VERY fast on a rally. I know there is also RIMM, GOOG, BIDU... but RIMM might have some news from its newly released "Storm"... and GOOG/BIDU calls were just to pricey for my poor account.

I am vested in HTX and will likely not touch a thing with my positions. Although, I might sell that other NOC put after all. If we rally hard, there is no sense in keeping it... we'll see. Because i think next year we start the year with another drop off related to bad holiday sales.

My market gauge: FLY, TIM & GIO, CHARTswing you will have one thing in common. DO NOT SHORT. Expect a rally. I personally hope it doesnt go hard, just so i have a chance to participate once i get my HTX dividend.

Market opens in about 3 hours or so... I am going to bed.

Friday, November 21, 2008

Its the Weekend... Here is another reason i stopped really trying to play guitar

one of my favorites. the musicians that back Satriani in this clip are very talented. Listen to the recorded version and compare it with the live one. The rhythm section is very well-known... Enjoy

Summary: FXI puts, NOC puts, HTX & AUY

I tried to squeeze out as much profit from my FXI puts. I did ok, but i wish i sold the thing yesterday. It all still landed a 25%+ profit. And my exit was just before FXI buyers came in.

I also sold a put on NOC and left the other alone. It was one of those trades i didnt think would do much until next year. But hey $25 one week $125 the next... pretty sweet. Maybe i should have sold both... Too late. (Anyway, you now have an idea of how much my portfolio has turned poor because of bad management. It used to be a modest 5 figures for years - it is down to four)

I bought HTX with the proceeds.... just as it was breaking higher.
(I had THX puts in place since Tuesday to protect the stock).

And i sold AUY with the thought of buying even cheaper...AZK or a GLD call. But i ran out of time...

The point is that it pays to plan things out... this was my most thought out plan that actually worked (for now). And had i looked at GLD earlier, i would have got in. People are getting out of banks and back into Gold...

Those actual bars of metal that Tim bought were a good idea...

FYI, Brian... no more credit to you until i get my pay out. but thx...


Props to Brian again...

So, you want a guaranteed return without volatility?

HTX... It must be bought before November 25th. Technically you have until Monday. But my guess is that this stock will actually get higher and the market might have a massive bounce next week.

If you dont already know, they are dishing out... GET THIS... $13.55(U.S.) per share!!!

And just to protect this position further I bought a few puts with the strike at the 52 wk low a few days ago. That way if (or when) this stock tanks (after the payout), i got my insurance built in (and possibly a profit as well).

Here is the catch... you must hold it into Dec 2/3 for the payout. And the thing is, we have ALOT of eco news next week that can give Bears mo'money (imagine the Dow <7000). So, its choosing between a sure thing with a nice payout OR 'potentially' quadrupling your portfolio. Its YOUR choice and YOUR risk.

NOC put...
Btw, my long put REALLY paid off. I wish i bought a ton of it... Bought the Noc put at .25 last week, sold it today for 1.25... and the thing is the stock is up from where i bought the put. Nice...

SOLD FXI puts (left one on a contingent stop)... FLU VIRUS... And a preview of a special trade...

There is just too much risk to keep my FXI puts so i sold most of the few that i had today. It will pick a direction and it will happen fast. Unfortunately, for some they will have to wait for the close to see how this ends. I figured I would take my 28% profit (sigh... that profit was 64% yesterday). If my lone fxi goes ultra green sure i will be disappointed a bit. But if i end up losing the bank on it. That would be worse.

I was basically sick yesterday, but not as bad as my wife. I was nearing a constant sore throat, but man there is this thing that actually shortens a cold and stops viruses from multiplying (thus, in this case the full blown Flu is basically stopped in its tracks). It is natural and from a special berry. cool stuff. Why... Because after what should have been about a weeks worth out of work for my wife has slimmed to 2 days. I told her to stay home today to make sure. And now she is cooking me breakfast. Pretty good huh.

Well, a clue to what this is related to is a huge dividend... Pay attention and I will let you in on it on the last hour... Special props to my friend Brian who shared this trade with me. Mind you... I want the best price for this so I am not saying a thing.

FAT BOUNCE COMING... I should go back to sleep.

We (in Hawaii) have to suffer getting up before Rosters if we want to be fully involved in the market. I cant believe i am waking up for this... am i nuts? It looks like my puts will be smacked today. The Pre-Market shows FXP down 17%. Good thing my FXI is not a 2x ETF. The point is that the VIX told me to get out yesterday, and i didnt do it. Unfortunately, i now will be seeing for myself that a Vix 80 is indeed a reliable gauge to exit short/put (and just MAYBE go long... but OUT of short/put for sure).

I am thinking about just going back to sleep. No sense suffering through a bad day. the thing is i woke up in case the market gapped down at the open, if so... there was no more playing around up or down... it would have signaled a rally. But as we all know the Market never cooperates.

As for my bloggers gauge:
TIM: chances of a strong rally are good
FLY: well he went Long on Wednesday
GIO: DO NOT short here
MAC: We are now overstretched(due for a bounce) and maybe have one more bad day
Stockbee: quotes someone, 'we may get the mother of all bounces'

its too bad i could only assimilate this after the market had already closed. but what a way to learn. one more day of a return might also mean missing a bad day the next day. Lesson learned again here at Stucktrader. As I ingrain into my brain VIX 80.

UPDATE: I am going to sleep 40 minutes after the open... I have no reason to stay up now that i set my sell/alert triggers. I didnt want to be stopped out on volatility if a solid trend is eventually found)

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Asia finished up... Is that real? Or a "Blue Dream"

I used one of his mellow songs in my wedding reception. It was one of those details that probably only my wife, myself, guitar people (and the poor folks who sat near the speakers) noticed.

Anyway, Asia being up or down has never really affected the U.S. Market of late. Goes to show how this volatility has been a nightmare to some... and others hope its just a "dream" - enjoy watching the guy who proved i should stop wasting my time playing guitar.

WOW AAPL at Pre-iPhone levels

I bagged 5 figure coin on AAPL options on the release of the iPhone in Jan 2007 MacWorld. Unfortunately i lost almost all of it back to the market... as you know i am only making a comeback because of old puts that came to life and thus gave me some $$$ to get back and be a bear.

AAPL is not a stock that i recommend anyone owning. But the calls are insanely cheap if you wait for LEAPS that will be released into 2012 or more added to 2011. Apple has no choice but to eventually taper the price down And forget these exclusive contracts with AT&T, because they would essentially rule the U.S. if they were with Verizon & T-Mobile. That being said, I see this stock going to 50... if nothing cool comes out MacWorld '09. 50 is a buy level... into a LEAP. I know a few people that lose HUGE bucks to AAPL. I love the company, products, etc. But i hate the stock (for now).

Anyway, i caught a cold or flu from my wife and am fighting it off with non-OTC drugs that only masks symptoms. The drug companies keep fleecing us without curing anything. Outside of the ICU and Asthma attack related drugs, I thing drug companies belong in the same catagory with the BSC, LEH, FNM, FRE, AIG, GM, F of the world.

I have one trade to tell all of you soon... You will thank me later... I will in advance give props to Brian. Nothing secretive, but price sensitive. As you know i have little left in this market to make a sizable dent.

RIMMs New STORM (not Bold)... FXI will be up today?... The Big 3 compromise

The newest Blackberry doesnt affect me as i refuse to be on Verizonz network. They are sim' less. In other words, they lock their features and sometimes stunt the features that are built on the phone itself.

Now that i got that negative disclaimer out of the way. Reading the reviews of the new Storm have been like the market - a downer. Mind you its not a crash. Descriptions such as big, heavy, confusing, and here is my favorite "the worse of both worlds" in regards to its mechanical touch screen. This does not bode well for RIMM. I will say if there is any positive news that spikes the stock i will buy a long term put on it.

I knew i shoulda sold this thing yesterday. But you know, as I said yesterday, the nice thing with FXI is that it may not reward you like other ETFs but it surely wont kill you either. Anyway, there are some buyers today and some positive intraday news. But its now how the day starts, its how it ends... its been that way everyday... not sure if today is one of them. I continue to hold FXI.

The BIG 3 Crybabies
Well, looks like some ground is being gained by the Big 3. I will say this would be my compromise to them. All the executives take a gigantic pay cut... i mean no one gets paid more than 200K. How would you feel about that? No stock options, no "fired" pay, nothing... The laborers are the victims (altho their unions may have made some of them lazy). The thing is, how is it that Hondas and Korean cars (i hate their car quality) have factories set up here that do well? Its the design stupid!!! Even if the Korean cars and more so that Hyundai logo annoy me (a cheap copy of Honda), some of their designs are just nice to look at. Korean cars used to be really ugly, but they figured out how to make them less ugly than american cars...

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

The Big 3 Crybabies. Oh, Finally FXI moves with the Market

Well, I cant stand the Big 3 Automakers. You know, it WASNT TOTALLY their fault that oil WAS at an all time high leading to their SUV minded demise. Nor was it their fault that those that back up financing for the people buying cars were busier lying in the governments face in how more $$$ would help their liquidity.

But in the end it IS their fault that they build some of the ugliest cars in the world. I had a conversation with someone long before this debacle. Outside of their high end stuff have you noticed the designs of their mainstream vehicles? It seemed like Dodge was going in the right direction early 2000, but have you noticed how the grills of their vehicles look like darth vader? Or have you seen how their once leading Mini-Van, looks like a 70's Van... just a van! Then you got Chevy, hey can you make your ugly logo even bigger? Why not just build a car in the shape of your logo... And finally Ford, i have to strain my brain to think of any vehicle that isnt a mustang or an F-150... in other words, nothing strikes me...

They have so many different models... For what? Look, I have never owned an American car. Or at least one with an American Logo (Hondas are actually build here!). Hondas are American built... (and now so are the Korean cars). They each have one simple car to handle a particular market. But the key ingredient is that each of them dont embarrass the driver (well maybe the Honda Ridgeline Trucks still stink cause they too are ugly). OK... enough of my ranting...

Jee, thanks for finally moving with the market... I was hoping to sell here but didnt do it on time. Mind you, i still think the Dow goes lower. All this Rallying is on LOW volume. I wish i had SOHU puts or dream i had BIDU puts a week ago. FXI just doesnt reward you very well, but in a volitile market wont cut you to pieces. So, I have no choice but to hold another day.

FOMC awaits @ 2pm EST... Question is what happens...

Can we think of any more bad news... and if FOMC show stuff we already know is that a good thing?

Anyway, todays CPI was worse than expected, but the Housing starts better than expected. Pretty much sums up the relatively flat market we have been experiencing the last few sessions in terms of the closing numbers.

But if you are a brave day trader, well... you will either make a bundle or be smacked.

15 minutes to the open... sure Asia got whacked a bit, but it hasnt meant too much to the U.S. market.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008


Well, there are positions being made by some to go long from here as the S&P stayed above 800.

The bad news on Friday will dictate whether we stay abouve 800.

Despite the closing rally, my new position HTX Dec 12.5 puts all went green today.

BIDU will likely bounce up from here... FXI didnt fall with BIDU and neither will it rally with it. So, i continue to hold FXI puts. Today, i had a chance to take a small profit. But Friday data is worth the wait or weight. And its weight might be... and yes that is a play on words... will be worth the wait. anyway... forget it...

Gio mentioned the mythical 'Sysyphus'. A guy who has to push a big boulder up a mountain. Well, today he was able to push it up enough to get past where he started today (market closed green). But tomorrows follow through will start green with bulls coming in... and then reality will set in... the big reality comes Friday...

So, i await Friday... and I cant wait to get past Tonight (my real job)... no long shifts the rest of the week.

Perfect Timing to buy HPQ puts... I cant for now...

Well, fade the good news... I already placed a 2 trades elsewhere today and have reached my cap on my available funds some time ago... which is why i went for penny options.

But if any of you want a nice trade... HPQ puts might be the one for you. But if it goes bad dont blame me. But chances are you will bank coin on it.

Maybe i will sell something to get in on it... but likely i will continue to hold FXI puts...

My Tuesday Gauge...So far i added 6 HTX puts... Two ways to save money

TIM: "increasing overhead"
FLY: catching swing upward...that wont last long
GIO: no update... in other words nothings changed
Chartswing: no update
StockBee: he recommends 4 books...

As you can see the only one actually doing something is the Fly. Brave... I continue to hold my FXI puts AND a smattering of 4 other puts and 3 calls.

I added 5 HTX Dec 12.5 puts @.05 each! cant get any cheaper then that. I was surprised i got my price AND one Jan 12.5 @.10. As is usually the case, the puts that do well for me are the ones that i dont bother looking at.

1. Deals
Btw, Black Friday (big holiday discounts day, that traditionally starts the morning after thanksgiving) has already started for some retailers... These include Circuit City (bankrupt... so why not), SEARS/K-mart, Walmart & Best Buy. As an example, a 46 inch 1080 HDTV can be found <$800.

2. Pay off debts... dont make new ones

I am done for the day...
Anyway, i rarely watch TV.

Monday, November 17, 2008

BIDU puts = Big $$$... But i missed it

Well, someone called a drop off on BIDU last week. It was pounded today. Too bad it didnt move my FXI puts anywhere. BIDU puts were huge. $5 this past Fridy = $250 today.

Otherwise, the market is boring... and even bears have added a number of long positions. The lack of buyers is keeping things here.

The eco news this week likely will tip the scale either way.

My Trading Gauge...

GIO: beware of impending 'flattening heavy ball'
TIM: 'untradable slope'
FLY: crash postponed, but eventual
STOCKBEE: 'is the [ALL] bad news priced in?... range bound... Hedge Funds cash'
Chartswing: 'no clue where we head...'

Well, nothing substantial. But definitely a rally has just so much resistance. This type of market has only had the same outcome every few months... it eventually CRASHES... and yet the squeezes and lack of volume out there temper the bears. If there is any sign of a bottom a gigantic wave of buying could occur. That is the conundrum. I coined the term 'miracle rally' for one reason. At this point it would be a miracle if it happens.

I have one major position. FXI puts. And number of puts everywhere and two momentum calls. For those calls to strike would be a miracle... historical...

I have some laundry to do and this 'talk' that i have to outline before i go to my real job (that doesnt lose money). We shall see how today ends. I think the Market waits for the economic data this week... starting with PPI stuff tomorrow. Housing & FOMC Wednesday and finally Thursday Initial Jobless claims. So, by Friday we shall see what happens and in the process get more confused.

Friday, November 14, 2008

My New Computer... Beta...

g-speak overview 1828121108 from john underkoffler on Vimeo.

What Rally? We WILL Head Even Lower...

We just had a warning wednesday that there is no firm bottom. That rally yesterday was just another day for bears to throw more puts/shorts at the market

Here is what i am reading from
TIM: Cautious balance portfolio for rally or crash
FLY: Added to his shorts yesterday but held longs
GIO: BULL Trap... But Caution advised. Follow leading stocks for bull indicatiors
MAC: We needed a follow through on a rally to confirm it true (nope, none, nada)
STOCKBEE: 'Wall Street Lays Another Egg'

So, in the end i was busy elsewhere yesterday doing 'more important things'. I only regret not entering my puts at the close of yesterday.... especially China. DUG looks cheap here, but i think China has more room to fall. OPEC will step in soon.

Anyway, with yesterday and today we find ourselves back at square one. I didnt touch a thing. I remain patient on the fall of China stocks to continue....

Thursday, November 13, 2008

UNBELIEVABLE... Shoulda woulda yet again

Well, i thought today i should have lightened my put position... well i didnt and also failed to place an exit/stop. And yet there is this weird feeling that things will get worse in a few days rather than better.

Tomorrow is the tell tale of things to come. Asia appears to have followed the U.S. lead... So they are trading in the green.

Retail and oil reports tomorrow. But the way the market is. It may go up another 500 points.

Bought HK puts

It was cheap... boy did the market move fast. I paid a few bucks more to get HK dec 7.5 put, since my initial limit order didnt go in earlier (i thought the market would go a little higher thus i would get an even cheaper put). If the FLY is right about this going single digits, this will be good winner. We shall see what tomorrows oil report does to the energy sector.

I am done for today. my FXI puts were never in the red today, altho they were never up huge either. Slow moving yes... but at least profitable. AND most of all manageable.

BORING... FXI hold or lighten...

Well... of all things China props up. Why? Who knows. Asia pretty much was down 5% and it pops here in the U.S. To be honest, the thing didnt move much yesterday either. But a big move DOES awaits us.

I didnt buy on this puts dip. I am content with my positions. My hedge calls tho may be a little out of reach at these levels. Patience is required today.

Oil and retail report tomorrow. Thus, i have no choice but to hold on to my FXI puts, tho i am considering lightening on the position. In the end FXI requires a crash/bull rush to get moving... Its the waiting game again...

(UPDATE: less than 1/2 hour later... bam market down.)

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Leaving $$$ on the table... But on to the next table. And the 'miracle rally'

Well, HK worked well. But there are no spikes or collapses. Just a slow drift downward. So, that being the case, I missed a full 50% gain on HK puts...

However, hopefully the FXI puts will kick in yet again. Its funny how my Dec 25 puts are sandwiched by the 24 & 26 strikes that were much more profitable today... well... maybe not funny... Either way this may be the start of the major China meltdown part deux.

As for energy. Specifically oil, i am cautious what OPEC might do next. At the same time, "I dare them" to cause a spike in oil. That will be my entry on DUG or USO puts.

The Turkey rally it seems will not show its face. I do have a few calls in place if it does happen... Namely AAPL/POT that have been hosed at this point. If these calls go green... I will name this the miracle rally. BUT it looks like i should have had some out there puts as well... too late for that... they are both fliers up AND down...

Holding FXI...and will re-enter HK if it spikes up. FLY was surely point on regarding it going to single digits.


SOLD HK puts... too early, but for a profit

BOUGHT FXI puts... held FXP shares

I think oil will either floor here or cause OPEC to immediately cut production. Either way, that is why i didnt go oil. Though i must say, i missed out on DUG today as I have been the last 3 trading days.

(UPDATE: SOLD FXP. bought more FXI puts.)

Tuesday, November 11, 2008


Well my sell trigger on DUG call was a little too tight, thus limiting my profit. But i will take it.

- HK dec 17.5 puts... i wanted a bear position on energy, but not oil. if oil spikes prior to inventory numbers, i will buy oil puts again.
- FXP shares. options are little too nerve racking. But i believe China heads lower.

HELD: dec OPTION months of these are worthless
- POT dec 140 call
- AAPL dec 150 call
- NOC may'09 22.5 puts
- YHOO apr'09 5 put
- YHOO jan 32.5 call (really old call)
- smattering of AUY shares

SOLD! FXI put... DUG regret... Economy numbers this week.

Well, i set the trigger to sell if it spiked into profitable territory. Unfortunately i missed another leg lower. Still it served me well. There are some points of resistance heading downward, so caution is advisable.

DUG calls (and obviously FXI puts) were on my mind all day yesterday. If oil <60, it would mean it could go to 40. I will wait for the end of the trading day to decide whether i want in or not. I would guess that a DUG OTM call would be a cheap way of catching some momentum related to news this week:

Thurs, Nov13 has jobless claims numbers
Fri, Nov 14: oil, retail...

In scanning a few stocks... it seems SOHU is a nice replacement for anything China (FXI). I will consider them at the close as well.

Watchlist: DUG calls, FXI puts, SOHU puts. (UPDATE: bought HK dec 17.5 puts)

Monday, November 10, 2008


Well, that bail out didnt do much did it... It faded - quickly. I bought Dec 27 put near the end of the day with a stop at 27.65. Or about a buck above todays close/a few cents above the high with a target of about hi 21 or 22.

Everything else confuses me... tomorrow will be telling. Everyone seemed cautious today. But i will benefit either direction taken.


The market has no firm direction today... If anything DUG calls would have been a nice day trade, but i dont do such things with an account that is so meager it would make you laugh.

GM price target... is $0. PLEASE NO BAIL OUT! I say let someone buy them out. They have some of the ugliest cars in the world - they deserve it. They havent figured out that cars need to be attractive too.

Either way, my long calls are set for any GIGANTIC bull market if its heading our way via POT & AAPL are my main hedge (turkey rally or just plain turkey)... tho i my choice of AAPL may have been a mistake since they sometimes trade in a bubble (market up, AAPL down & visa versa).

The different views out there provide no solid direction either way. Just much caution. The views include
- FLY hating on HK while it sits in the green
- Tim trading DUG as it opened down nearly 8%.
- Gio has an IBD watchlist with VIX in mind
- Stockbee mentioned a 21 day range of 'subsided' selling
- MAC had some leanings towards a weak bottom, but he has no trust in that.

So i am sidelined at the moment. The last hour of trading will likely speak for itself. Their are no U.S. Economic until Thursday. ALOT of bad news can come our way quickly (jobless claims, trade balance, retail, oil inventory). Hmm, you would think those reports would signal a crash coming our way. Thus, It might be wise for me to wait til then...

Friday, November 7, 2008


Well, i am not waiting for the weekend to 'hope' it works out... i am just happy than my i lost $35... when initially it was a 50%+ loss on the position... i am happy just to get out...

As for DUG, it is here for the long haul. I have to really think about matters here... if it hangs above the low rest of this day it should be ok.

I am holding the rest of my puts(NOC may'09, YHOO apr'09, MSFT nov, BYD nov) and an old PCX call that didnt strike during that last rally.

I am looking into getting a long call option in POT or AAPL. Thx to Gio & Tim.

(UPDATE: bought Dec 150/140 calls on POT/AAPL if we get a turkey rally...if not they will remain a long hedge on future puts)

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Slow Plunge... "HK must die"?

Well, the DJI isnt dropping off a precipice... but its going into this daily drop thing. a few hundred here, a few hundred there. NOT 700 or a 1000. All this talk of the DJI going to 7000 this year and 4000 next year is FUNDAMENTALLY right. Whether 4000 happens, well i would think thats something for next year.

Ok the FLY is adamant that HK must die. I had that thing profitable on calls last week, but my dumminess if there is such a word failed to set a stop and i lost a profit. BUT believe me when i said i am glad i took the loss. No sense crying over that... so, i went ALL IN on one account with DUG (with the few Pesos i have left in that one trading account).

I have a trip planned in 2009 (ticket prices are only now dropping) I can only wish oil crashed to the 40s, as you see the airlines are in the green today. But knowing how Airlines work, they will start charging for carry on luggage too. The question is whether OPEC will put up with that.

Thus my portfolio includes:
DUG calls: if oil gets <60... there goes the support.
WYNN puts: (Mr. Wynn is a liar), i finally got this green
YHOO puts: (MSFT wont buy Yahoo is $5, Mr. Yang is begging.)
NOC puts: remember, democrats use Defense money elsewhere
BYD puts: worthless
MSFT put: an old put, Nov 15 too short a window.
PCX call: a leftover from the pre-election
AUY: my weak hedge
VISN: why did i bother keeping 2 shares?
YHOO call (a very old call)

When will we go up again? Thats a question that no one knows. Maybe at the earliest right after Turkey Day.

I am off to do a different kind of campaign...

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Obama Positions... and YHOO...

Ok we know one thing... See ya oil... and have fun Defense sector...

I bought
DUG jan 59 call @3.0... did you see the last time this rallied?
NOC may 22.5 puts @.25... a LONG put...
YHOO may 5 put @.22... Google will no longer 'deal' with them.

Held: WYNN Nov 45 put for now...

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Failing to follow ones own plan costs $$$

I said a few days ago that any rally MUST include POT... and guess what... I didnt buy any calls... I mentioned that 25 points ago. ARGH... in terms of options likely a 500% gain.

Shoot me...

SOLD HK calls (late)/Held WYNN puts & PCX calls... Missed MA.

Well, i had to bite the bullet. I sold my loser HK...My not being disciplined in setting stops cost me the gains over the last couple of weeks in one of my accounts.

WYNN sank today but somehow rallied in the end. Tim bought more puts in these guys so that is on my side. But watching how i am unable to get back to the original value based on the stock price i bought it at certainly shows how time decay affects options.

I didnt buy NOC/GD/LMT/BA based on the election... So i will learn if the election matters to those stocks tomorrow. Long term i do think they will get a blasting if Obama gets in.

Mastercard is a monster! Their earnings gets me thinking about making those long earnings list again... sigh... but if i participate in stocks like MA then it would be worth it. It is hard to compare it with V & AXP and the fact that its election day only added to the buying spree attitude.

Monday, November 3, 2008

WYNN... PUTS kick in... Tim is on it... Other notables

It was so obviously a stupid set up. I will hold these Wynn puts.
Tim posted early this morning to short WYNN with a stop @ 70. Casinos were overbought (UPDATE: maybe not overbought, put an earring on a pig, Mr. Wynn was so evasive regarding actual numbers.) because of Wynn, but the economy havent really changed (it still stinks). Anyway, i woke up today and got 20% of my loser back. But the Casinos regardless of where they are will suffer. Wynn beat earnings because of their Chinese Casino, but looking forward, they are the very ones that are facing inflation and now how do you think they will deal with any new Prez? I could care less who the next Prez is as i am non-political. But the next Prez will likely slow the stupid selling of jobs to China.

POSITIONS: HK/PCX calls... WYNN puts... AUY...
I await tomorrow to buy a spec put on one of the defense contractors. If Obama gets in, the put will be like a treasure ticket.

I continue to hold HK because of it being winter... PCX is still there if we have bullish activity after Nov 4th. Gio is using PCX as a hedge. If my PCX call hits it will be a miracle, then again i only spend $30 for it. Coals still have their place, but apparently Obama is not a fan of them.

So, no trades today...

Casinos dipping...
Oil down =Airlines/Shippers up...
RIMM being on fire because of their upcoming Blackberry Storm... They should thank Apple that they didnt release the iPhone on Verizon. Otherwise they would be dead.

Sunday, November 2, 2008

NOV 4th... OK... My long term plan is here...

Well, i totally blew that stupid WYNN put... for one thing they are liars.... the economy stinks in China too.

Anyway, the position that might be of interest is the DEFENSE/MILITARY related puts. History says democrats cut that type of spending. If you look at the charts since October, one would think the election is priced in. But if you look at the charts going back into 2000, you will find that NOC/GD can still head 100% LOWER!. The question is how long?

MAY 2009 puts for NOC & GD are dirt cheap... Anyway, the plan is to leave it in there...

The bear rally that we might be in at this point may not apply to all stocks...

In the end, everyone is waiting for Nov 4 to pick a direction... Although, the street in general is saying the worst is behind us. I think it is just a setup for the worse.

I HATE that WYNN position... i went against my gut feeling... and paid big time...