Monday, November 15, 2010

Hopefully you bought those options i suggested.

Anyway, i will be honest... i am just trying to pay down all my debt... but another play that has come to my attention all based on the hypothesis that the iPhone will end it's exclusivity with AT&T...

AT&T(T) option puts... 2012...

3 things going for this trade:
1. VZ is a matter of when not if...
2. Apple will not allow Androids to dominate the U.S.
3. Even if AT&T does ok after the iPhone leaves... you still have the overall market that can spiral downward...

Anyway, if i free up some $... that's what i will do.

If you got in on my last post your .17 is now worth >.53 or >.80... i didn't tag which LEAP i would have played.

oh and yes VZ leaps are still good, but once news comes out of the actual iPhone on their network, then taper off and go with T puts instead.

It's your money not mine... so don't blame me if it doesn't work. I do have lawyers.

Monday, July 19, 2010

Another PLAY... VZ WILL GET THE iPhone...

Looking at 2012 LEAPS calls 40@.17. Yes, cheap to be sure... thus low risk, but high potential for return.

Apple is only held back in the U.S. by AT&T. Once the exclusive is removed, like every other country, RIMM will be first to go down... Android will be the only viable platform. Non-smartphones will be the battleground that Nokia will continue to own with Samsung being around.

I do not plan to get in until after this Holiday season. We shall see how far this market sinks this fall.

I figured i'd blog something... but direct buying of AAPL options will only be bought if VZ is confirmed, otherwise VZ calls will be the speculative buy...LATER...

Miami's big 3... may have to battle getting out of the East. Celtics have one more year, Orlando still has Dwight (this was the team Lebron should have targeted ala Shaq/Kobe, Kareem/Magic), anyway Chicago also looks scary: they finally brought in a shooter and another rebounder in Boozer.

In the end, no doubt they "3-me's" will get their title(s). But now they will have a target on them EVEN LARGER than the Lakers.

The irony of all this is that things actually got easier for the Lakers with bunch of stars moving East. The West still has Dallas, Portland, Denver, and OKC... But the days of handing Lebron the MVP because of stats are OVER. Wade may never get one now. It's Kobe, Durant, or some PG.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

I'm still here... and am SHOCKED that certain options are still green

well, it's amazing to see the bottom feeders popping up again...

the July 320 call versus my original buy is actually still green... how is that possible? i mean did u see what happen to AAPL's stock? it nose dived 50 points!!! 50 points!!! it was like 2000 tech bubble crash all over again... and then it snaps back 40 points... IN JUST A MATTER OF 20 MINUTES close down 'only' about 10... Goldman... have you been buying?

Anyway, it would be a good time to travel to Europe this coming year... $1 vs EU 1.27 or .79 Eu vs. $1... it's the best i've seen since April 2009...

Well, APPLE the company should do ok regarding the number of iPad units going out the door. Not to mention the next iPhone, iMacs, i-something... i personally think iAds will be huge. possibly bigger than the App Store (which you can check on this blog) that i formerly thought would be the biggest thing for Apple in terms of revenue. The App store as it turns out has continued to differentiate itself from other WebStore/App fronts.

Bed time... oh, i predict much Bottom feeders a plenty if not tomorrow, next week... we'll see...

Monday, February 8, 2010

Replying to my commenter...

While i will say that it may seem that OTM options can be viewed as 'sucker' bets... had i went along with my plan B and went with OTM put options... guess what... 1000% gain in 3 days... unfortunately, i speculated (if that word works here) the wrong way...

so, as it goes. my sell signal (that i carelessly didnt pay attention to) was the day the iPad was released. AAPL didnt break 115 thus, that was a signal to get out of it. Unfortunately, i was careless enough not to schedule a sell and cut my loses.

But as i readily posted... i was willing to take a loss on this one... knowing that i have some other investments (bonds in particular) maturing this year. i needed either a home run or a minor loss...

AND i do have shorts in play... just fyi. but thanks for your comment.

As it stands, the iPad should do well enough come the holiday season... IF the whole market keeps this fake rally going. if there is one piece of news that would cause AAPL to shoot up would be a partnership with VZ

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Laziness stinks...

Well, the one thing i forgot to do was set a sell on my options...

The thing is its been some time since i have done this thing... My wife's voice continues to ring in my ear, "maybe you shouldn't do options..."

If anything i should have gone with an AAPL put as well... or at least my favorite, FXP CALLS.

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Like i said... Blow whats left

Did i see a sell off coming... sure...

That's AAPL... buy on hype, sell on news... unfortunately i didn't buy any put insurance. I have lost on both ends again and was determined to go with the stock going forward.

My Mar call has been bought @.40 is currently worth .25
My July call bought @.9 is currently worth .50

Its no wonder my wife tells me a last night... "I think you should just do stocks - Options are too risky." Hmm the market sure made a point...

I hate to say it... Cramer was right on this one...
He said to be ready to buy when the sell off happens post Tablet news... but go long from there...

In any case... this $ has been collecting dust.

It seems as tho i will have to wait for the iPad to actually start selling to get any traction on my options. My March call seems outright dead... July holds out hope and now a January call is entirely possible... but the puts are out of my range.

Stuck again...

Monday, January 25, 2010

I AM BACK IN... blowing up what's left... in AAPL options

I feel 'wordy'...

Well, i have been away from Trading... missing the huge bear rally... but when you get the snot knocked out of you so many times going long/short and both... you just stop and say where else am i losing money...

Paid off a couple loans since being away... So, that plan worked.

Today, i am finally getting back in by way of AAPL options.

So bought out of the money calls: AAPL Mar 270 @.4 AND July 320 @ .90.

I thought, well (even though i expect another crash as soon as march), common this is one of those Quarters and possible news a couple days later that can pump some real $$$$$$ into this stock. I might as well make my $ work for me and write off the loses later. I am not expecting much as this is a speculative trade based on the following:

A. Possible surprise on iMac sales for Holiday Q
- they cant keep the 27 inch in stock (despite flicker problems)

B. Possible surprise on iPhone sales
- this past Q includes China and more non-exclusive carriers

C. Possible surprise news on anything else during press release
- Streaming and Ad companies were bought insight

A. Obviously a Tablet that will blow us away at a good price
- AAPL shot up $10 in about <2 days. I think news here might top it

B. Possible Verizon (and any other carrier) working with Apple
- lead some to speculate on the iPhone on VZ being an eventuality
- a VZ deal to some could be bigger than the Tablet.

C. Subscriptions being an option
- that is what Switchers always complain about

Anyway, i thought about going with RIMM/PALM puts as well but hey RIMM is prepared to to provide a rebuttal press releases... and PALM will likely be bought out anyway. I dont get how RIMM and MSFT dont bother to buy out PALM and their patents.

In the end, AAPL was what made me interested in stocks in the first place. Made much going with them (and loss when i started doing options *sigh*). So, I think it was an appropriate moment to go with the one company that really is far ahead of its competitors. I would say, if Apple didnt have to depend on Intel chips... no one would have any idea what Apple is doing - being that their has to be some type of leaks to their other OEMs or at least accurate guessing. And if Google's CEO wasnt on Apple's board, i think Android (and thus any competition) would be there for the iPhone.

So, i basically have everything left in my poor trading account going into AAPL. I will probably make a deposit to this account in a couple weeks... as i said before, there is a crash coming... just have no idea when its happening. But my Bear watchlist includes: FXP, SDS, SKF, SRF, and anything new i find that wraps the whole market on the short side.

Anyway, i am prepared to write off whatever i lose on these trades.
As much as AAPL could skyrocket, it can also drop off a cliff.