Thursday, January 31, 2008


So it seems no company can be the bull the bucks the trend in Tech/Internet related stocks. altho, AMZN posted a gain. The question tomorrow is how will the Nasdaq react. I wished i got in on some index puts. but i couldnt stay by my laptop til the market closed. i really thought they would beat the street.

MOT got handed some smack from RIMM & AAPL handsets. DELL is behind the curve, but its a smart move on their part, as computing goes mobile. They will undoubtedly plug into Googleʻs mobile open source OS. Time will tell how quickly DELL can implement a mobile strategy. MSFT seems to be the ultimate loser in the Mobile OS wars (PALM included).

Back to stocks... COH, AEO were unwise trades. In fact, my Portfolio B (which didnʻt move til MacWorld), is at an all-time low. While my Portfolio A has been managed far better... risk wise. The financials and retail have killed my portfolios. The very sectors that deserve to crash... and they deserve to be taken to task for their irresponsible greed.

So, i will end this post by saying that i have broken one of the main rules in trading in a bear market (itʻs in one of the books i am reading). Limit trades to absolutes - high percentage trades. I have gotten a little carried away of late in plugging puts, when the market has been flat to a slight bounce. There is no question as to the years end being lower than the beginning. I am unsure how long we will be in this consolidation.


So it seems no company can be the bull the bucks the trend in Tech/Internet related stocks. altho, AMZN posted a gain. The question tomorrow is how will the Nasdaq react. I wished i got in on some index puts. but i couldnt stay by my laptop til the market closed. i really thought they would beat the street.

MOT got handed some smack from RIMM & AAPL handsets. DELL is behind the curve, but its a smart move on their part, as computing goes mobile. They will undoubtedly plug into Googleʻs mobile open source OS. Time will tell how quickly DELL can implement a mobile strategy. MSFT seems to be the ultimate loser in the Mobile OS wars (PALM included).

Back to stocks... COH, AEO were unwise trades. In fact, my Portfolio B (which didnʻt move til MacWorld), is at an all-time low. While my Portfolio A has been managed far better... risk wise. The financials and retail have killed my portfolios. The very sectors that deserve to crash... and they deserve to be taken to task for their irresponsible greed.

So, i will end this post by saying that i have broken one of the main rules in trading in a bear market (itʻs in one of the books i am reading). Limit trades to absolutes - high percentage trades. I have gotten a little carried away of late in plugging puts, when the market has been flat to a slight bounce. There is no question as to the years end being lower than the beginning.

Risk Failure Management

The win was not getting HOT puts. The loss, holding onto AMZN... i told myself to sell at the open. The only thing on my side are Eco news to send it back down. Short covering obviously taking hold as well. I await GOOG earnings. A possible position their is BIDU puts tomorrow... if GOOG goes green, which i think they will. GOOG calls are too expensive.

I will do myself a favor and lie in wait. LVS puts can wait. Recession hasnʻt fully hit. But i know of people losing half if not all their hours in the hotel biz.


The rumor is that AMZN has an unannouced stock buy back... totally irritating...
It opened at the low of the day and indeed cut its loss. The premarket buying pretty much sealed the deal. I have no choice but to hold soon to be expired contracts into tomorrows eco news. hopefully the news is bad enough to take the broad market lower, but especially tech. so, obviously i am hoping GOOG gets shot down (altho my gut feeling is it head higher).

MA kicking butt like every Q earnings. go check it out... anyway, it blasted past its 50day EMA. Being a Bear, I may try to get Apr 160 puts at days end if i get my price.

I did buy COH Feb 27.5 put. Strictly bot on the chart as its bouncing of resistance:

I also bought AEO Mar 20 put (Gio mentioned YESTERDAY)... i am late and the candlestick may seem contrary, but i think i sinks lower tomorrow.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

AMZN...And More

Thursday... AMZN i think will open at itʻs lowest of the day. So, i am selling my puts ASAP. i may dip back in at the close, but i think itʻs best to get the profits.

I think i am too late to catch HOT. Although, maybe i have a indirect position going with WYNN & LVS, as the HOT guidance is read. all i know is that no more vacationers that live off credit.

Speaking of which MA reports tomorrow. itʻs a toss up for me. i already am holding AXP. which didnʻt move much, but with the FED outa the way. we might move lower as other companies repeat their mantra "potential economic pressure" on earnings this year.

The big one to watch is GOOG. They are basically ad-based. So, i think they meet... i may do an option strangle. but it would be an expensive endeavor.

"Fun" Friday has a bunch of Eco news that can wipe any positive earnings for the day... so, pick your high flyer... i am thinking financials, or specific overpriced stocks (in my opinion): CMG, LVS, SHLD. unemployment numbers are a strong gauge for the economy.

Slept Through ...

I basically overslept today... thankfully. i missed how boring of a day Fed day turned out to be. I have no Long position. Cash sits >70% of my total portfolios. Big Ben saved the market from crashing. The bulls were not confident at all to keep the leaders at or near their highs of the day.

I missed getting in on HOT. However, they are supposedly reporting tomorrow 1030a, so maybe there is some time for me to get some puts. Related hotels: LVS & WYNN, both have calls AND puts in the negative. you cannot complain about a bad entry either way, hope it stays that way tomorrow. i guess i may be getting up early. but i have AMZN considerations before dumping cash in the toilet. After-market, altho happily in the red is far from being VMWish.

GOOG reports after market tomorrow. the options look TOO expensive (especially for me). So, looks like it is the hotels that i will be targeting tomorrow (btw, i cant wait for Target to finally be here)

There are rumors going around that MOT may no longer do mobile phones. I dont believe it myself, but the fact its talked about merits how this would impact the industry.


My earnings list erroneously listed AMZN reporting prior to market open. obviously, they report after market.

The pre-market reading is red, but means nothing with the FED in play. i would have bought AMZN puts today, NOT yesterday, if it had not been for my flawed listing.

This will be one of the most interesting days i will have ever watched the broad market as opposed to a small group of stocks

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

For My Own Record

I can't believe i have so many posts this month...

My thought prior to VMW & SNDK reports were buy to buy puts
VMW feb60@.85 & SNDK feb22.5@.90, but i chickened out on VMW, while i just plain forgot about SNDK. LLY also had my attention, but i have never traded a drug stocks outside of PFE. It was solid...

we'll see how the bulls begging for a huge rate cut affects both stocks.

THE potential buy for me today will be AMZN, as they report prior to market open tomorrow. Should they be grouped with other retailers? Yes... But do consumers buy from Amazon after checking the bricked stores? Yes... So there's the conundrum. It will likely site terrible guidance... just look at what guidance did to AAPL, VMW, SNDK.

I think AMZN goes down tomorrow, while MRK goes up.
So far, pre-market green: VLO, CFC, DOW, YHOO/red: CAH, X

Monday, January 28, 2008


all things considering... this stock will win the one day percentage fall of the year. i thought AAPL would win.

i look longingly at what a cheap put buy would have resulted tomorrow.
o.k. (5 seconds...) iʻm over it...

many more high flyers on the board this week. let the FED pump them up first.
this fall impresses the point that for any stock we see as fundamentally unsound. no rate cut will save them

Shout out to Gio. i keep forgetting to add WYNN to my hotel list

So officially... HET, HOT, LVS, WYNN...
I also want to do a stock shout out: SHW... maybe they lose $ not having enough new houses to paint, or they make $ with people relegated to painting their shack... looking at the after-hours, they are already trading red, bummer i thought i could wait til tomorrow

Tomorrow i will watch VMW crumble... look at the rest of the eco news this week, they all involve the negatives for consumer: oil, employment, consumer confidence, inflation - man i should have traded for long puts in VWM & SNDK. Maybe the Big Boys were doing a fake out in pushing the market up, to sell their longs and short for the rest of this coming month.

I think Gioʻs take on MA is right on. it has a ways to go down... many more stocks will fall...

Theory Realized

A few posts ago, my confidence in BDK was absolute versus AXP & HAL. My gut was right. It opened down hard. the FED thing... *sigh* again gets in the way. so, my portfolios are in a holding patter

once the FED gets out of the way this wednesday, the bears will indeed control the market. If he does something like a rate cut >.50 (even >.25), well... what does it say to EVERYONE who owes money. The emergency cut last week hasnt gone to work yet.
either way, this market is heading down no matter what he does (hopefully he says something that implies just that). the housing numbers were bad... and yet the marketʻs rate cut hopes keep the market in the green.

We have some huge earnings reports this week... i will wait for the FED to open their mouth before obtain more positions, a short vacation...

Hotel stocks are rallying... HET, HOT, LVS, MAR. recession will definitely do them in, they will be the next headliner (media is already late in reporting this stuff) now that housing is old news. Not good for vacation spots like Hawaii

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Mondayʻs Action...

SNDK, VMW, report after market close. the thing is they are too oversold, tho VMW can go lower (Aug 26 low: 71.44). Guidance is key in all reports... regardless of past earnings. i will decide whether to get some puts on them

VZ on the other hand, i have no idea when they report... i will forego the trade on the action of the day.

I already have AXP, BDK & HAL in play... hope they score wins...

At the end of the day... Tuesday earnings before the market... iʻll check them out tomorrow.

There are a lot more important things to do... In the "Near Future" there will be more cataclysmic things to worry about.

Nikkei down about 4%(Japanese recession news), Han Seng -4.5%, Strait -3.96%... Oh and Europe opens in the red....line up them puts.

Friday, January 25, 2008

Bought MORE Puts

AXP, BDK & HAL... I think itʻs obvious to me BDK should be a winner, i could be wrong. But no one is doing much building outside of China. Gotta go...

I remain bearish on earnings...

Thursday, January 24, 2008


Well, i did think MSFT would do well enough. but i didnʻt want to buy calls...
will it lift Tech forward? My thinking is that we will have this bounce into next week with the FED coming to play yet again. A rate cut thatʻs not to the streets liking will result in you know what...

My only spec to win was KLAC. Semiʻs at this point arenʻt where you want to be. i looked into BRCM & CY and obviously should have chose them. They wouldʻve been better than XRX & SYMC (both companies of which i didnʻt know fully their biz... which ultimately affected my bottom line.) i am still >80% cash... so iʻm basically all puts... just sitting and waiting... these small spec positions have resulted in small loses and a few huge gains.

Man is AAPL cheap...i thought there would be some buying today... maybe tomorrow - i dont plan to be one of them...

Letʻs see how far the FED goes next week... that will show us whats in store the next month of trading... whether bad earnings will be allowed to bring the market lower at an exaggerated rate or what we would consider normal

Risk Management... Reassess

With another possible rate cut ahead of us, I got out of BSC put. I was surprised i still had something to close out at a minor loss. My SYMC obviously didnʻt work, i didnʻt know they had an international side to their biz. itʻs a wash, but any Tech news can bring this thing down enough for a smaller loss.

Iʻm left with the following in play:
portfolio A
IWM mar 63 put (time on my side)
FXI jan 50 put (far out, to be sure, but itʻs early in the bear market)
WB feb25 put (no sense selling now)
XRX feb 12 put (earnings await)
KLA feb 37.5 put (earnings await)
The key stock is MSFT earnings. i think theyʻll meet, but have flat to conservative guidance, Halo sales bailed them out.

all losses for me now, but enough time to work something out
portfolio B
AMD feb 5 put
JPM mar 32.5 put
WFC apr 22.5 put (i had 100% gain, but anyway...)
DECK mar 65 (reaching... had a chance to cash if not for the FED)

Otherwise, iʻm mostly left to cash, iʻm unsure of adding CAT. The broad markets are green, but earnings will be key going forward. The FED will cut again with much volatility ahead.

Bear markets are said to AVERAGE 18 months... enough said, we have 6 to 18 months or so, with many thinking beyond 18 months considering how bad the banks/creditors jammed up the market. btw, AAPL is dirt cheap... but i wonʻt buy til Apr earnings at the earliest

Wednesday, January 23, 2008


Bot MORE puts:
itʻs doubtful that my positioning today has much merit. but i am totally basing my puts on earnings. Anyway, most of my cash as most of the pros are doing stays cash...

KLAC (i shouldʻve waited tomorrow, they reported after close)
BSC (not a good idea...i should have waited for it to touch 50dayEMA)
XRX (hope it falls hard enough if at all)

wanted to, but they stayed red... so, i stayed away:

got in too late... maybe a good thing
LVS, CMG... but i am in no rush if they stay positive

GIO went Short(yesterdays leaders: esp solars) & Long (bottoms)

btw, MyTone are you still out there?

Now, Tech will be a slave to MSFTʻs earnings.
If good news after hours from them, Tech will rally continues... if not we know where weʻre going.

I will buy CAT puts (and maybe HON) tomorrow on bad fundamentals the rest of the year... They both report Friday.

Alot of people bought the bottom today... it seems safer to buy here than where Tim did... props to all of you who did... keep nimble.


I resist the temptation to flip to calls.

put sale...
AAPL: 235% gain
MOT: 341% gain

by far my best trades since the days of TIE and the iPhone release.

Now i wait for SYMC to report...
I will add to my positions based on other earnings... KLAC a possibility
Other semi's include: CY, BRCM, but they are already trading lower.
MSFT is expected to meet expectations, which would move Tech positive

My financial puts are taking a beating early... however, time is on my side. AND! i think there is some reloading for sell of happening.

My spec trade will be CAT... slowing economy, less things to build, outside of China getting ready for the Olympics

Early Morning...

It seems we're headed for some kind of bounce. Although not all securities are equal. If the pop does indeed happen, GIO mentioned he may SHORT FXP & logically LONG FXI... personally, i'm not into risking a falling knife, but china/Asia really sold off...and their part of the world had tremendous rallies post FED cut. had we done just that when the FED acted, we'd already be sitting with green.

DECK seems eventually headed for a crash... when? who knows... but the reward is great and patience is required.

the FED has only slowed the fall, not prevent it. for now, as i mentioned, this bogus bounce will not prevent weak earnings/guidance.

i will sell AAPL 1/2 hour into the session. Apple will be a solid LONG when all this stuff gets sifted. they seem to be grabbing marketshare everywhere (1/2% increase = about a $billion revenue). it turns out the subscription cut they receive was a good idea, if sales do slow. For now it's AAPL shorting/puts

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

AAPL... voids the FED (And Saves my puts)

As history shows, AAPL always undercuts Q2 guidance. and in this market, the stock pays big time. Anyway, i was too embarrassed that i even placed a call position(Feb200 yeah right!?) in my last posting... i just didnt see any reason to be bullish, so the sympathy trade cost me $107.

Tomorrow will feel the AAPL effect... no FED cut will bail out bad earnings or guidance... MOT & SYMC both will likely report terrible guidance. MOT is already feeling the heat from BBerrys & iPhones. For SYMC, if no one is selling enough PCs, then no oneʻs buying your useless software.

This band-aide approach by the FED will mean more red ahead... hey that rhymes!

Ben Presses Button

it took awhile for things to settle upward. but ben did it. in the end, he did somewhat stabilize things. now earnings reaction will not be as exaggerated. i am unsure whether that is good or not (especially for bears).

i had everything green for awhile, but failed to close positions, especially WFC, thinking weʻll have another bad day tomorrow. so now i am back in the negative. *sigh*

i allowed things to melt up without placing a single call at the moment. not smart...

i bot a bunch of stuff mostly at the end of the trading day, still leaning on puts:
MOT feb12, IWM mar63, SYMC feb15, WB feb25(dumb)...
MOT & SYMC i think are just fundamentally in trouble, it was a market trade but pure earnings. IWM may have been a bad idea, with the Fib bottom at this tier @ 63... then again, i think we go lower past Feb.
AAPL feb135 & call(forgot which strike)... i think trading AAPL again may cost me, but it seems that conservative guidance has been the hallmark of AAPLʻs stock movement. this one stock could lead a mini-rally or bring things right back down again.

To those who visit Timʻs site, doesnt he owe Ben big time for bailing him out of his NDX calls? i think so... funny, he flips right around and buys NDX/RUT puts. he is after all a bear.


if you wanted a short/put position today, you are too late...

FXP will be making alot of people rich today! of course, i failed to place an aftermarket position on friday, altho we all knew this day was coming. the good news is that all my positions should be ringing in green

btw, DECK falling nowhere as fast as Tech, Energy, Solar, Finance. bummer...

For the AAPL trade, it may very well happen, premarket touched <149 (below august low!, but recovered slightly. so a quick call position at the end of the day is now possible and as well as a put position.

The market has decided, regardless of earnings... red, red, and more red. i do think this day will end better than Friday... or not as bad


First off. the market was closed on Monday. i think it should close on all holidays. none of this half day stuff, since it confuses me.

And well, the correction *ahem* (bear market) continues . Asia crashes, Europe doesn't quite fall as hard, but closed red nontheless.

I don't plan to enter new positions. Gio in thinking to strangle AAPL. he got much more guts than i do. if it falls hard enough, i may do a meager call/put position just prior to close. it will blow by earnings, and will have much iPhone/Mac marketshare news to share, the question tho is guidance.

the only chart that looks attractive to buy further puts is UAUA. It actually received some upgrades recently, oil droping helps, but i don't think recession does.

Jan 23 seems to have more interesting trades, tho i will have to skim a few charts.

Sunday, January 20, 2008


Well, technicals, FED rate cut (maybe Jan30), blah blah blah... all reasons for a bounce. sure, but as you all know a bounce literally means it will eventually head back down. so i welcome a bounce short-term.

China gloom is here. Bank of China has a subprime mess themselves
A trading buddy "Gio" got a nice short on *ahem* ultraputs (FXP). but as you all know itʻs set to go much higher.

Wait til the employment rate rockets higher, then the bears will have their day... i mean year...
Iʻm just buying puts... hereʻs my plan so far
Any stock that has 3 digits (DECK, CMG, FWLT, GS) are on my radar first.
any vacation related: LVS, HET, airlines
then any tech... especially semi. AAPL may survive longer than all tech
then any military heavy selling firm, if a democrat gets in office
lastly, small boxed retail...

This weekʻs earnings are full of questions... much to sift through.
Hereʻs hoping for a nice bounce Monday before Tuesdayʻs eco: jobless claims, home sales, crude inventory
Asia & Europe is getting pounded as i type this...

Friday, January 18, 2008


STX 120% gain not bad... i will remind myself continually of how dumb my MacWorld plan was... and now iʻm having to do these small trades. but at the same time i am being forced into more efficient trades. banking profits bit by bit.

So bush proposes $145B for the economy. uh, hello? am i getting part of that? where is that 145 going to anyway? (rhetorical question). these bums want to money to bail them out of their greed while we normal people have to WORK to get out of our debts and stuff.

i am looking at CMG, FWLT, LVS, WYNN(thx gio)...MON... as potential puts. let this bounce clear a bit

Earnings next week Tuesday in particular... UAUA, TXN, JNJ, HOKU, BAC, AAPL (them again)... i am looking for a short-term bounce and i hate to say it, but AAPL will likely get pumped prior to earnings... but they always seem to lowball the next Q guidance. so, iʻll set up for that...

Props go out to Gio in shorting FXP... if anything, after this short-term fall, it now forms a base to go to the 100s. i will wait patiently to buy FXP calls(expensive) iʻd rather go FXI puts... yes he got choked by shorting SRS too... but hey he won out in the balance sheet...

I canʻt find anything interesting for me to buy today... i will enjoy this weekend and hold my positions

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Patience Is Key

I read that the most successful speculators...rarely trade in a bear market. it impresses upon me the need to see this whole year in perspective... most of my puts are in the March/April expiration. the Fly mentions the market indeed has room to fall 13-20% year to date...he notes weʻre at 7%.

I have been trading earnings... buying puts... in addition to Mar/Apr puts. the thing is... it requires getting up early to close for profits. i must say, iʻm tired... maybe itʻs the Shalacking i got with MacWorld... still iʻm trying to limit my trades.

i added AMD sometime today to my puts... maybe that was not worth it. itʻs green right now, but weʻll see if the bounce wipes that dry...


They provide construction and engineering to oil and gas, oil refining, chemical/petrochemical, pharmaceutical, environmental, power generation, and power plant operation and maintenance sectors worldwide.

Tim had this on his watchlist >2 weeks ago... it had a chance to turn around today, based on the candlestick. Itʻs 200MA is 119, however, itʻs august low was 95ish. So, thereʻs room to be sold.

On the other hand MON, i think is a solid company this year. but this was the first time it showed it can fall with the rest of the market. It broke itʻs 50dayMA and is headed after a the low 80ʻs

just look at the market as a whole and pick a pricey momentum stock... you can find these gems everywhere...

ARGH!!! I FORGOT MER reported today!!!

Paying attention can mean lost opportunities...

Looking above at my earnings list... thereʻs a reason i put those tickers up there. And i forgot about it when i closed out my Wednesday: AAPL puts & INTC puts... and buying DECK, STX, WM puts.

AAPL did bounce and i think will find itʻs way back to 150... but i am going after 2nd tier stocks from here...

The Market Panic has indeed set in... you can almost throw a dart at short/put and go green...

i left it all alone... PUTS in DECK(still a ways to go down), STX, WFC, JPM, WM.

I will update my earnings list this weekend and plan accordingly.

Leaving Portfolio Alone

AAPL bounced happened. glad i closed that short-term put. hopefully it sets up flat prior to earnings...

Left STX, JPM, WFC, DECK puts in play...

CAL survived last Q. it seems airlines will continue to enjoy a drop in fuel prices. but that will be tempered by fewer travelers. long-term/fundamentally it doesnt look good for them

LVS is near it's lows. I'm trying to add HET puts. They have been resistant to falling, i don't think it's gonna last very long from here.

Ag is falling... in particular MON. whew glad i closed that position last week.

Progress for the year so far, the only failure has been AAPL (huge failure). Otherwise, my positions have leaned green or closed out close to cost.

In this bear market, there are too many choices...

Wednesday, January 16, 2008


I didnʻt hold on to my AAPL/INTC puts very long... if anything i should have sold them before 11... all i know is there may be a slight bounce. and i wanted to cash in...

i bought a few puts STX & DECK (i know some closed it out)...into Feb & Mar respectively...

Next week we have barely any Eco news, but Jan 24 has jobless news/home sales... so weʻre set up for another fall...

I am mostly at cash... enough said...

FLY made an interesting thought on Chinaʻs inflation... heʻs right on that one, except that it seems to me that the US will continue to buy things made in China anyway at Walmart.

Oil is going down... but will indeed be back up in the summer... Airlines, FedX, UPS, all transports burning gas are enjoying watching oil fall for now...

Time Factors... Yahoo Finance Data

Yesterdays MacWorld loses was based on going the wrong way AS WELL AS buying calls so close to expiration. Of course, had they gone green i'd the man (until i lost the dough again).

Lesson re-learned along with a bunch of others that i already knew...
Anyway, altho JPM & WFC are indeed pre-market green, they both cite unsure futures. So, buying time on their falling in March/April

Tech on the other hand (thx to bland MacWorld & Bad INTC views) is falling hard NOW before the market opens. Tech may catch last years Aug lows... AAPL as an example fell hard to 150. I hesitate to hold these past the FED's beige book @ 2pm EST...
For those that have been waiting for BEAS to agree to ORCL buy out, today is your day.

FYI, IBM earnings was listed on Yahoo Finance as being on Jan 17. So, double check earnings list... not sure if it would have change my trades on Jan 15, but missed opportunities can be costly.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Puts Galore...

Right after my MacWorld fiasco... like right after i saw the price of the MacBook Air, i actually did something productive and bought the following:

AAPL: Feb145put
INTC: FEB20put
WFC: Jan25 & Apr22.5put
JPM: Mar32.5put

i wonʻt be suprised if a reactive bounce happens... thatʻs been the kind of day that shows my blog name was the perfect name for my poor execution... weʻll see how tomorrow goes.

on the positive side of for future iPhone users... IBM Lotus apps with the iPhone could present a real challenge to RIMM going forward. As Mr. Jobs pointed out marketshare number of Smartphone/iPhones sales falling only behind RIMM

Utter Failure (of course)

I was hoping Jobs would elaborate on the numbers more... not this time... it makes me wonder - even though earnings will blow away previous quarters, what expectations & guidance will be needed to please the street...

i for one will officially jump off the MacWorld bandwagon, if anything my failure to switch to puts at the first sight of trouble cost me... big. percentage wise. though 4 figures is nothing to sneeze at. itʻs at the least embolden me to finish reading my investment books & ditch this supposed huge day...

the funny thing is that my position would have been half of what i placed today in MON & RIMM recently and yet they were huge winners. time to move back to helping whack this market to shreds via puts... just think if i had "shorted/put" MacWorld instead.

My only bull position in MON...
i will reload after the FED opens their mouth...

congrats to the DECK money machine... in a twist of irony guess what puts i bought at the end of MacWorld...
iʻm just glad today is done...

Pre-Market... Pre-MacWorld

first of all, SHLD didnt have an earnings report my first mistake. it was a profit warning. (or no profit)

Pre-market news:
Citi stunk up the joint as expected... (worse than Street expected)
FXI is deep in the red... (so i may have sold my FXP prematurely.)
EDU reporting as i type this (Gio has them short)
AAPL trading red as is most of the market...

i don't have a day-trading acct otherwise i would have bought AAPL today and sell in a flash if there was no news today. MacWorld Keynote is 9am PST.

part 2 of the Plan... sell AAPL on hopefully good news. and wait what happens after the FED. and get more DECK, LVS on green signs.

Monday, January 14, 2008


thx guys for participating in my sad blog...

Gio: No way i plan to short AAPL... rather it was NFLX i was referring to... they will be another Napster, Sony, Virgin Music, et al. AMZN is the only competition for music/movie downloads i see as being a threat. oh and nice play on EDU, i didnʻt see that one on the earnings list... let alone SHLD, man i missed that one.

mytone: thx for contributing. AAPL will indeed break quickly on bad news. i am merely positioning for Mr. Jobs to pump the stock up prior to earnings... which heʻs done for the last 4 years or so. they had some aggressive guidance for this past Q. if they beat then Jobs will likely brag on units sold for Macs vs. PCs and iPhones vs. other smartphones (he likely wouldnʻt use RIMM in the conversation). Market share going forward is what he can sell to investors.

regardless of how MacWorld goes tomorrow financially. the products are always interesting. Jobs is the best ever marketing CEO of all time, especially in Tech.

Sticking to the PLAN

Reevaluating my positions i sold my puts in LVS & DECK, as well as FXP... all for this "bounce"
I missed that SHLD had earnings today, donʻt know how i missed that with my supposed Earnings Watch, alas another missed opportunity. Look for all the retail guys and short/put them.

I finally bought some Ag via MON Apr130calls... still kicking myself for not following my own advice a number of posts ago. Dec 4th to be exact!

So, the Plan, bought AAPL calls: Jan175 & Jan180 at the end of the trading day, thereʻs is always a little seling off at the end. buying @ the open would have been obviously better, but the hype thatʻs being built into the stock is not what i wanted nor expected... it may very well be well founded... the hammer shown today usually bodes well technically as it finished above the previous dayʻs high. the Keynote tomorrow will hopefully includes a sales update of the number of Macs & iPhones sold, being that they were so aggressive in the guidance.

If INTC does indeed beat the street then there is room for error on AAPL... as the market will hopefully pull in buyers of Tech. AAPL earnings are another story, they often fail to give solid guidance... and the stock falls for a couple days. so buyers beware.

If my PLAN doesnt work tomorrow, iʻm left to buying ETFs (FXP, SKF) and cheap solar AKNS (Thx Gio). At least i have MON.
OOPS forgot to buy NFLX puts...

Sunday, January 13, 2008

More Eco Monday... and AAPL again.

I have had questions posed as to how to trade AAPL prior to MacWorld.
Historically, AAPL has posted a gain since the iPod/iTunes combo came on the scene for each MacWorld. Typically the stock falls just prior to MacWorldʻs keynote address... where Mr. Jobs often refers to "incredible" sales of ".....". This year all eyes will be on how many iPhones were sold. The goal was 10 million by the end of 2008. If we get >5 mil we should see a pop.

Also related is the iTunes/Apple TV hub... if the subscription service is indeed for real. we may be seeing both Blockbuster and Netflixʻs last days.. so shorting those stocks (i prefer NFLX, since itʻs off itʻs lows) would be another way to position your portfolio around this event.

Plan: buy AAPL calls at the end of Mondayʻs trading day... hope that INTC reports strong sales and adequate guidance. and hope the oversold tech builds a bullish background around MacWorld... and buy NFLX puts...especially since they are dirt cheap...

Friday, January 11, 2008

IWM... INTC... CMG...

Gio noted a possible bounce from INTC next Tuesday. couple that with AAPL at MacWorld (better to position this than waiting for earnings.), where theyʻll likely announce how many iPods, iPhones, Macs, etc...were sold, if the numbers beat their aggressive guidance it will be a nice pause for the bears... and a one time win for bulls... a bounce not a rally...

I regret not jumping in on CMG, talk about an overrated place to eat... sure itʻs has better ingredients than Taco Bell, but when people donʻt have $, they go cheap... why do you think McDonaldʻs is still kickinʻ. sure they are down too, but believe me, people will start choosing cheap over quality if it means their house...

One more thing to factor in on is the new president... will they raise taxes? blah blah blah, iʻm politically neutral... so no politic talking here... just be a good citizen and please pay your taxes.

So my main positions:
FXP, LVS (puts), DECK (puts)...

in my sights:
AAPL (calls), HET (puts)... too many to sift through

Clear the DECK

The stars have aligned (TIM & FLY agree). Deck boots, i have never seen them... but when i saw the stock price. i went cheap (Feb 100 puts), nice thing with bear markets, stocks fall faster than most rise in bulls (sans FSLR last earnings or IPOs). See chart at time of this typing (1:05pm EST), technical view is that itʻs touch the 50 EMA that now serves as resistance, if it fails to stay above yesterdays low 138.5... then thatʻs it. Although the 200 EMA sits above 100

I sold my AKAM put. My first solid winner 125% profit for a measly position elsewhere.
Props to Gio for shorting/putting MA... consumer tie in yes?
My previous post mention gold... funny i forgot to get in on it. itʻs at 900/ounce...
- any suggestions on which options to buy? NEM? AUY? something else?

I have replaced my China watch stocks with a Split Alert and will continue to add to the earnings list

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Everything Expected, sans BAC & CFC...

I expected today to go green... Ben and his promises being my basis... but the sentiment is so bearish... the market needed the BAC report to go positive, i would have thought Ben could do that for the market. As it is...l say that CFC being bought out by BAC will be my way of say Hello to BAC puts. And yet, if this thing doesnʻt go through, we all know where the market is headed from there.

The State of Hawaii plans to purchase a bunch of Solar to help with rising energy costs. HOKU, being local, will no doubt get some of the action... how can it not, when they will eventually pump the money back in tax dollars. So, as a spec HOKU may be a nice position to hold out of the solars... the worry is can a smaller shop like HOKU have the necessary resources to handle initial expenses (polysilicon is not cheap)

AAPL as i daily mention. will hopefully close flat... i donʻt need it bleeding... just flat...
Jan 15... action and suspense awaits... and alot of $ flying

England Rate Cut News

On both sides of the capitalistic pond we have central banks with the power to improve consumer confidence. Unfortunately, on the state side, consumers in general are too busy paying off their high interest credit card rates...

We are in the midst of a market where any bad news is to a bear market as good news was to the last bull run and also during the dot-com phase... extreme...

Let the buyers come in... so they can get whacked. Of course, the FED rescuing the Market like a dad saving his spoiled son doesnt do anyone favors except the insiders. The normal hard working people like ourselves tend to be the victims...

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Somehow...I lose money again...

Well, not setting stops has been a habit hard to break... FXP got smashed did LVS puts...
Anytime FXP touches 80, it seems to go right back down... I thought about switching to USO... but having come off a 16 1/2 hour nightshift, i fell asleep... itʻs a good thing most of my $ was in FXP and not in options... i live too fight another day

I do not like how quick Tech bounced...i hope for it to red out come friday. basically because i want AAPL flat prior to Mr. Jobs keynote... if i miss here, then iʻll strictly stay ETFs for the year...

Tim was right on the other day about a huge bounce. As likely a number of pros who got out yesterday before this humangous bounce. Iʻm glad my Portfolio B still remains in wait.
But in the end my not taking these signals cost me... no doubt there are times ahead the market will be down. itʻs a matter of cashing that in.

Iʻm stuck in yet another bad position...Mr. Bee mentions that Bearish times are indeed ahead POST-EARNINGS!
all in all not a good day...and yet good days are ahead...

Congrats to TIM (sold b4 bounce), GIO (on GRMN), and somewhat to FLY (he seems to either get it right huge or miss bad, i.e. FXP. HOWEVER, he always wins...)

FED talks tomorrow. So EVERYONE is expecting a rate cut... if he misses Wall Stʻs expectations. Weʻre right back down again

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Struck Gold!!! Well, Not me...

Right across the board gold related stocks bucked the trend. Have we bottomed? A guy named Tim is convinced weʻre in for a short-term bounce.

Back to gold. GG, AU, AUY, ABX, NEM GFI... take your pick (calls)... u made $$$ today
My previous post regarding hotels - all fell HOT, HET, LVS, MGM, (btw, wrong tickers for La Quinta not "LQI" and Extended Stay not "ESA")... Thus my meager LVS is "putting" a little $ in my Portfolio A.
Obviously Tech: AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, et al stunk it up... which i like... for now
INDEX: IWM if it falls past 70 thatʻs it... put buying fiesta (not necessarily in IWM)

Tomorrow holds no eco news just more opportunities to create confusion. Gio has been kind enough to nudge me to trade my hypothetical views (without having told me to do so). My paranoia in losing even more $ has served me well thus far, but i click on the execution button with a heightened sense of getting out (preserving profits). Unfortunately, my funds are in a state where i am unable to day-trade (if my levels stopped) since it would flag to my account. However, I find my picks more in focus than last year.


"Putting" some $ to work with LVS March puts after selling a few FXPs(which i shoulda sold @80)... Technical bounce today... Gio suggested i couple LVS trade with MPEL. But there is little if no action there. It has been awhile since i bought any options... So, the only $ involved is in my portfolio A. I still have a smidge of AKAM Feb put as well.

He suggested GRMN as well...if it fails to break above the last high i may jump in there as well.

I remain conservative in my risk.
So far this year I have missed the can't go wrong puts in line with the jobs report and MON earnings report (RIMM was in December but it felt like just a few weeks ago, where i planned to buy calls with the intention of switching to puts the next day).

So, I will await AAPL action next week. This week may very well have a bounce as all the pros are saying. But thereafter is another deal.

Monday, January 7, 2008

Too Late

at the last moment i tried to get some HET puts (not much action) but market closed just prior to my order. I was looking into some Janʻ09puts with a strike @75

this ugly (i mean the literal picture not performance) chart shows the cyclical nature of the stock. Peaks around May/June... and itʻs back down again

the only thing is, maybe the recession could cause enough gamblers to flood the casinos to hit the big one. of course, that aint happening...the HOUSE always wins.

Confused Today... PREDICTION!

Iʻm a little unsure as to why FXP went down... itʻs big names for the most part remained flat if not in the negative. All the pro blog traders noted a technical bounce today. but in the end the trend for the day is in the red.

i am really missing the boat on a bunch of stocks being shorted/sold. but in the end my being conservative is what will allow me to participate in a more meaningful way down the road.

Solars are getting whacked today. a buy here? not for me...yet... FSLR actually got an upgrade today.

I am totally thinking the travel industry as a whole will be getting worse... They have already been pounded last year. A good thing for those of us wanting a cheaper place to stay. That unfortunately will have a domino affect especially for places like Hawaii...and Florida. It goes without saying that the airline industry will fare the same if not worse though they are already at their lows

Hotel stocks i am checking out...
Higher End: rich people will still travel, but even rich people can lose money
Mix of both
-HOT (already at itʻs 52 wk low)
Low End: these are the places where most of us are staying
-LVS, MGM, HET, BYD, MGM (of these LVS & MGM are still heading lower, HET trades at a narrow range... but if it breaks 70 i am buying puts. i am hesitant to touch LVS & MGM.

Friday, January 4, 2008

Another Opportunity...

Well had i gone ahead and bought LVS puts i would be having a nice day... especially had i previously bought MON.

Alas, the could have been is an exercise in futility. My portfolio at this point is boring. But itʻs staying positive. (thx, FXP). I am trying to gather list of recession stocks that bank... not just remain bullet-proof. I cant base my whole world around FXP (or SKF/SRS) and AAPL. well, maybe i could...

Happy note for me is that Tech took a dive. I seriously want AAPL to keep taking blows leading up to MacWorld. Then again, it was exacerbated by Mr. Moritz of He has a knack for finding unfounded info that blasts AAPL. He claims yet another supplier citing a slowdown in orders from AAPL. Did he ever thought that AAPL may actually have something of a design change? Anyway, I would have liked a slower fall than one like today that can cause a reflex pop. Either way, all this bad news prior to MacWorld is what i want.

I was tipped yesterday to start putting GRMN, talk about an over-priced stock. There may be a bounce somewhere next week, especially if Big Ben saves the bulls. IWM should be on our radars... if it dips below 70... the bears will indeed rule at least the first Q or 2 of 2008 (w/a possible bull run @ years end).

Finally, a safer play may be USO call options. January 10 & 11 have a bunch of oil related news, not to mention: housing, consumer credit, more jobless data, and Trade balance. Really, next week is another bull killing week.

Intuitive, Tim, FLY, Bee... all have similar perspectives... and thatʻs scary... if you are indeed a bull

Thursday, January 3, 2008

So what now?

Jobs report... yada yada yada...
the market holds it's breath for these things.

My FXP continues trudging along. as you know gov't forces may corrupt my main ETF. i may switch to SKF.

i can't keep my eye off of hotels...LVS, Et al.

Not much to say otherwise...i'll be posting earnings dates of significan movers. I think stock selection will need to be more precise this year than most.

MON... a winner...Me...nevermind

MON was on the radar... and the pop in the stock at the end of the trading day said it all. I was looking at it til the last 30 seconds. props to all those who went all in... Iʻm looking to get some dips if this stock continues upward... competitor SYT is up as well, in now out from under the radar and should grab attention in the next few weeks. we will see if how options boards respond.

So, despite all the recession talk... this bodes well for companies that are rock solid

FXP is tipping down for now...but itʻs a winner in my book. AAPL & FSLR... maybe GOOG...

Oh, one last thing. buy your puts in LVS or vacation hotels, etc. if the recession does indeed hit. No ones taking a vacation anytime soon.

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Chicken...I am...

Well, MON was not a position got in on with the overall view of the market is grim. so, i left FXP as my lone position. if anything, MON would serve as a point of reference in stocks that buck a bearish trend. true, no one made money sitting on the side... but one doesnt lose money either.

My lone bull in view comes up on Jan 15. otherwise, iʻm leaning on weak stocks to get weaker than the overall movement of the market prior to that date.

Oh, and we shall see if oil stays above 100. if so, USO calls have been a winner last year (of which i totally missed the boat)

Earnings (MON)

Today calls for patience. FOMC minutes @ 2p.m. EST. I hope to find a dip in MON today going into tomorrows earnings. I hope to place a small call position. i am not gonna get too technical. itʻs still not overhyped (100% above 200 EMA). it implies a bullish outlook and coincides with my belief that Ag is a strong buy in this market (prior to summer, then itʻs back to energy).

GPN also reports. itʻs been trading sideways for basically through the more volatile sessions. it is worth looking at for somewhat of an interesting trade based on the chart. i dont know much except that they are related to credit transactions. so, i think iʻll stay out. but i will watch and learn.