Thursday, December 27, 2007

Ideas

Recession?
COST: buy! why? hey bulk food when food prices are going up...
NFLX and BBI sell/short/put! why? renting via mail with higher oil prices affecting parcel charges (i know they have download services now, but is it compatible with iPods? Nope) oh and btw, AAPL is rumored to have more movie studios lining up for its download service.

simple logic...

Stand "Corrected"

Props to be sent out to the "Bee". He calls a correction on solar stocks on wednesday... and bam it hits today. He noted the 100% plus over the 200 MA values were vulnerable to correction. IBD notes the 110% rule. That being the case a correction is HEALTHY. Allow the stock to take a break. Note the current rally is off much selling for the end year.

btw, i am still wondering when AAPL will take a break from this run-up. Although during the last shake up i called for news boosting this stock... and itʻs happened. patience is what iʻm practicing as MacWorld approaches. The market in general will be volatile the next 2 weeks as many pro investors have noted. iʻm hoping the stock flattens out with the market. but the rumors of 5 mil iPhones sold is the current buzz.

i bought some FXP for the time being... tomorrows eco include new home sales, and next week. the FED speaks again, AUTO sales, construction spending, factory orders, unemployment, etc talk about bad news coming.

Lastly, the middle east assassination will likely boost oil prices as a result of questions of stability. i may just buy some USO calls. just maybe...a small piece... oil prices cannot help but grow higher as production costs for the 2nd highest oil supplies (Canada oil sands) increase.

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

LOOK OUT BELOW!

This is when one should be extremely cautious. Eco news abound this week. And to make matters worse (for bulls), oil will be up as well (Turks invasions). the trend may in fact be down as a whole. so selectivity is key.

Anyway, i patiently wait. Many opportunities in the market (bear or not). I recommended last week to get some FXP prior to today... If you bought Monday, props to you. it should make some dough sometime this week

I'm still very bullish on AAPL. i was looking for 260 LEAP. but based on the volitile sentiments ahead, i may just go for MacWorld and buy Jan'09 calls in the summer. A co-worker (and many investment sites) like MON. Ag is a good place to LEAP. and they're relatively cheap.

We'll see how this week goes, i may very well buy LEAPS on Friday...in both AAPL and MON.

Friday, December 21, 2007

Gun Shy

Well, my previous post shows the effect of a bear sentiment. Being gun shy... I will remember this day... I tried to sell at the market open and made only 50% versus a 100%. Plus i was too far out on my strike to benefit this spike despite being out in March. My original in the money plan was perfect. A guy named FLY scared me off a bit. This is the 2nd time I failed to stick to my convictions regarding RIMM.

Also, my FXP sold off as well... and now... i really have nothing positioned. At least it wasnʻt a loss. But it was a far cry from an 18% gain... which would have funded my RIMM position more adequately.

I look forward to the reading material headed my way... thx to AMZN.

I will use today as a my test for the "big" trade in AAPL. thatʻs over 2 weeks from now... so, i have much time to mull things over. With my mulah... The plan is 2-fold

Portfolio B: AAPL ʻ09 LEAPS (out of the $): hopefully a tax benefit...
Portfolio A: AAPL calls pre-MacWorld or day of... hopefully funds more trades for ʻ08. Hopefully, my risk management has improved.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

STREAMLINING = PROFITS... Why ORCL was important.

ORCLʻs report showed a number of things. Their acquisition plans have been spot on... but in the tech world... thereʻs still much money to be made. ORCL just proved that CSCOʻs CEOʻs concerns may be real, but may not affect all Tech. Even with all the Financial Banks, etc getting whacked. They will find ways to STREAMLINE!.CSCO itself surprise us as well. In other words maximizing their networks...so employees leaving the office are well... still in the office. No way theyʻll turn off their Blackberrys. But adding more business users...that may be another story.

RIMM was able to expand itʻs consumer base... basically eat away at the smartphones arena, namely PALM. And the so-called biz smartphones from MOT, NOK, Samsung, theyʻre no match for Blackberrys. AAPL on the other hand rule the multi-media smartphones, eating away at LG & PALM primarily, then NOK, MOT, and the rest.

So there it is... Blackberrys will rule the business space with AAPL being #2. In the multi-media fone space AAPL will rule... and Blackberrys will eventually beat out LG, NOK, Samsung... (MOT stinks)

Speaking of streamlining. that plays into AAPLʻs favor as well. Laptops running Mac & Windows (desktops are for gamers). and the fact that Vista stinks (i didnʻt say it, the Windows fan base are letting it be known. They donʻt want to jump ship necessarily, just complain and hope the Vista service pack fixes the 20% slowdown that theyʻre experiencing). Educational institutions are recognizing the dual-booting Macs as the way to cover 100% of their users (LINUX included). And the fact that professors are having their lectures downloadable, plays into the iTunes/iPod phenomenon.

So, while we are far from a market that is rallying... the gems RIMM, AAPL, GOOG...gets the nod when it comes to earnings. That of course will be based on how it trades prior to reports. We want them to be knocked around...then surprise everyone, which is what RIMM did.

ARGH!!!

The "better" traders out there recommended against RIMM. It tempered my risk... but there went the BOOYAH!!! instead iʻm cashing change... oh well... It bodes well for AAPL come January... so thank RIMM for that...

I will now be positioning AAPL LEAPS on any bad news with portfolio B. and jump on AAPL calls on MacWorld day...

more to say later...

RIMM day

Even in a "bear" market you can find a few gems. But you can get whacked too. Core inflation report tomorrow & eco data from next week present ominous signs... BSC & FDX were expected to post losses so nothing specific to their earning is bringing down the market.

The dilemma is that RIMM could trade in a bubble for a few days. risking nothing never pays anyone... (then again thereʻs nothing to lose). if RIMM does suprise then horray!!! iʻm buying puts... so, with the chump change i have left in portfolio A, iʻm thinking of a March call far out. then cash it (assuming it goes green). use that cash to buy them puts... FLY doesnt like the way it is trading...

i canʻt wait for 2007 to end... the credit crunch & greedy lenders....LED to mortgage write downs/ housing woes. Oil was always an issue, so alternatives energy were the benefactors. i guess i have to summarize all this later for my benefit.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

RIMM

I had no idea it reports so early...

Although i donʻt believe it will be a homerun as AAPL. It has nontheless expanded to several countries. Even if it just beats earnings and give aggressive guidance, i think news of a touchscreen to challenge the iPhone will be the catalyst to this stock.

The trend down has been all but played out.


if i see what data i find is reasonable... i will be in the money Marchʻ08calls to protect from downside risk. and still benefit from a nice pop... i donʻt plan to hold this thing beyond friday. the other way to position this is to short or buy puts at market open if the stock does indeed pop

The influencing factors include BSC, FDX, and a bunch of eco data (jobs report, inflation data) will also be on the table tomorrow AND friday...

Monday, December 17, 2007

All Things Considering...

Iam having a down year thus far... with the market following my lead...HA! Anyway, so many charts are bearish (technically) that i am totally overwhelmed. I'm not sure if we're officially in a bear market...but my FXP will sit for awhile.

Happily, i am watching my December puts make a comeback altho many are outa range. still it looks like i'll have losses to cash out rather than going to zero
-IWM, SNCR (why it went up mystifies me), DRYS (too way out, but still has a chance), GOOG & FSLR (too far out)...

Jan/Feb puts: AKAM (jus a matter of time), FRE (maybe not a good idea), PALM (turned into non-standard options after huge divident payout - it's way in the money but no one is touching it)

Tech took a giant spill today. The leaders will fight to stay bullish... and can knock bears will a few upper-cuts (as i've experienced in the past). I hope my learning by experience will help me to be more vigilant.

Come On Down (I miss watching The Price is Right)

AAPL is coming down as was shown by the lovely candlesticks...
i really hope this thing keeps coming down and stick below 200 before MacWorld. I want as much negativity prior to MacWorld for a pop.

FXP is on fire... but iʻm cautious as to how long this lasts... anyway, as one cartoon character would say, (the sky)BIDU is falling! (the sky)BIDU is falling! Nevermind falling to 350, it could be at 300 by weeks end!


Agriculture is popping up on everyones radar. So, it would be best to get in now. But alas, i will wait and watch other people make money.

Some are citing a rally in financials... i donʻt believe it... especially if the best of breed GS is down.

Friday, December 14, 2007

Wow Lau Lau

Wow... AAPL actually touched 200 today...granted it fell off to 190ish due to inflation worries(uhh, hello? credit, housing, give up FED, let the recession happen!) Anyway, the AAPL bulls cashed out fast... It was a "falling star" when u look at the candlesticks.



Notice too, lowering closing lows...
Still, AAPL long is the best pick for 2008 IMO. do uʻr own research.

It looks as if thereʻs a number of people hedging chinaʻs bubble is gonna burst (like a spleen). there doesnʻt seem to be much tumble in for cha-ching stocks today specifically, but yet, "they" keep bidding FXP up. after the olympics...is when the bears can truly time this thing... anyway, itʻs my only significant position. Wouldnʻt you know it, the most boring way to stay in the market can make a "bit" of dough.

"More Ethenol Use?"

Whoever is trading corn... thank the govʻt now...

So much food is being burned for fuel. Now food prices will go up... (sans processed food)

Itʻs late... Iʻm sleeping on it.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

LATE POST

A few days back a bought a bunch of FXP (i think it was Monday 12/10)...
It was a day where TIM and FLY both bought FXP... weird...

i was so tired of getting up early and giving money to my broker... and iʻm the one thatʻs getting "broker".

My regret of the year? Not sticking with AAPL... dumb...
When it dropped below 150, it was a definite long call/LEAP... but alas iʻm stuck as my name suggests...


Just waiting for Dec options to expire...then iʻm on to buying AAPL Jan250 or 260 LEAPSʻ09.

I may have a little fun a position a one time trade @ MacWorld... but other than that... let it ride...
at least until i clear some 2007 "debt"...

My portfolio A has an error by overstating my balance 100% more... they mock me...

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

THANKS FED!!!

AND there you have it 25b.p. from the FED (bulls wanted 50), and suddenly my puts are still in play the last 2 weeks of these pulverized options.

Waiting sure paid off... I was really sick to have missed this mini rally...
Iʻm lining up my favorites for earnings day!!!
-GOOG, RIMM, AAPL, FSLR (GRAF, who btw, was a great tennis player)

Tim must be dancing... While Fly is thankful he had something to cash out... and so buys FXP.

Guess what... If TIM + FLY go the same way then i jump on that bandwagon.

So, TIM + FLY = STUCKTRADER! (bought a bunch of FXP)

I wonʻt be holding on to these very long... The bulls may come back tomorrow and rationalize that 25bps are good if they keep on coming...

FOMC!

Those letters will ring $$$ for both sides... likely the bulls. As for my Portfolio "B": I may just go ahead and buy Jan260Call-LEAPS.

The outlook isolated to AAPL is extremely bullish as my previous posts point out. It may be time to let this security sit...for the year and benefit from the tax break.

FSLR may also be my only other position if the FED gives the "green" light. pun intended for my "green" energy pick.

RIMM & GOOG will strictly be an earnings thing for me. It's been stuck on 100 - 105 for some days. They will meet expectations, but i question their guidance going forward.

I will need to re-evaluate the Ags.

PLAN (tentative): Buy my LEAPS after Dec option expiration. And let it ride... It'll save me time and $ in commissions, while i explore moving to another brokerage and doing some investment reading in the meantime.

Monday, December 10, 2007

Sitting Tight... Info Gathering

After tomorrow should give us a clearer picture (outside a new president coming on board - iʻm politically neutral).

iʻm leaving all my puts in place (since theyʻre all at their lows).

News: AT&T buys a bunch of Cisco "core" routers for 25 major city hubs related to all the wireless traffic itʻs experiencing (iPhone related? maybe, didnʻt see this part of the equation).
-considering what CSCOʻs CEO said which sent all of tech down a few weeks ago, this is good news.

Still bullish to me...
#1 AAPL
#2 FSLR
#3 GOOG
#4 RIMM

just waiting for earnings in January...and MacWorld

Friday, December 7, 2007

Who SHOULD HAVE Won the Heisman (Prior to 2007)

See the site for yourself.
http://cfn.scout.com/2/708452.html

I felt Brennan should have won LAST YEAR. Other guys i think should have won? I pick Vince Young & Marshall Faulk.

Although I didnʻt see them live, I saw them TAKE OVER games. Regarding Colt, he threw 500+ yards on beating BCS conference teams. I saw him with my own eyes. And when we Hawaii followers consider how it was with Tim Chang (like a stock zig-zagging), you appreciate what Colt has been doing(bullish...breakout...). He WONʻT win this year. TOO MANY INTERCEPTIONS this year... based on his record breaking stats last year... if it wasnʻt for that, heʻd be in... No doubt. Imagine, he sat out the 4th quarter of a bunch of games last year. If Coach Jones left him in he would have had 7000 yards & 70 TDs(easy against good teams)!

I have a portion of the article below, itʻs getting mentioned on The Dan Patrick Show (ESPN-radio), interesting article:

By Pete Fiutak | CFN Heisman Central

"It's now become a college football tradition to award the Heisman Trophy, the premier individual prize in all of sports, in between the end of the regular season and the bowls. Unfortunately, the signature player of a given season often times isn't determined until after the bowl game, and as everyone knows, one huge performance on a national stage often means everything in the race.

In the 2007 battle, look at how Arkansas star Darren McFadden went from also-ran to possible front-runner by blowing up against LSU when everyone was watching. Missouri's Chase Daniel went from certain finalist to out of the picture after struggling in the Big 12 Championship loss to Oklahoma. Yes, one big day on the national stage, or one dud, is often the difference between winning and being a footnote.

If the voting was done after the bowl games over the year, who would've won? USC RB Reggie Bush might have been a transcendent superstar in 2005, and he had a whale of a Rose Bowl, but Texas QB Vince Young would've won if the voting had been done after the national title game.

Sometimes the Heisman serves as a motivating factor in a bowl game for the opposing defense, so it's not always cut-and-dry that the winner would be clear after the bowls like it does now. Even so, going back to 1970, when the national title started being awarded after the bowls rather than after the regular season, here are the last 36 Heisman winners and what would've likely happened if the big prize was awarded after the season was actually over.

2006 Troy Smith, QB Ohio State
The Final Three Were ... 1) Smith, 2) Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas, 3) Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame
The Likely Winner After The Bowls Would've Been ... Colt Brennan, QB Hawaii
The Final Three Likely Would've Been ... 1) Brennan, 2) Smith, 3) McFadden
Troy Smith won the Heisman in a landslide, but after completing just four of 14 passes for 35 yards with an interception in the BCS Championship debacle against Florida, the voting would've been wide open. Darren McFadden was fine against Wisconsin, but he wasn't special and his Hogs lost. No. 3 in the voting was Brady Quinn, but his Irish got whacked by LSU in the Sugar Bowl. West Virginia QB Pat White, and not teammate Steve Slaton, who was fourth in the voting, was the star against Georgia Tech in the Gator Bowl, and Mike Hart's Michigan team got crushed by USC in the Rose Bowl. That leaves Colt Brennan, who put up a record-setting season at Hawaii with 58 touchdown passes, 5,549 yards and five rushing scores. He tore apart Arizona State in the Hawaii Bowl throwing for 559 yards and five touchdowns with an interception in the 41-24 win."

SOLD My Lone Bull

Dec300call... sold while i could get something for it (75%profit actually). I honestly thought the market would tank today...it may actually head up big time next tuesday on the FED talk (likely rate cut). iʻm one who has no interest in guessing. iʻm waiting for things to settle after the cut. Then go from there. Bush is doing his best to bail out the sub-prime thing. which stinks for the bears.

I will wait patiently for AAPL at MacWorld and their earnings should blow everyone away. It will be the bull of the year.

Enough financials i will post something on Colt Brennan of the Hawaii Warriors.

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Fellow Blogger...Hawaii Fan

See intuitivetraders.blogspot.com
He's has put it all out regarding the smack talk from everywhere against Hawaii Warriors.

If anyone reads my bunch of junk blog, it's apparent that I'm a Hawaii Warrior Fan

It's simple...I'm waiting to say something after the Sugar Bowl.
Then look out all blog sites...I'm calling out all Warrior fans to send bulk YouTube to everyone of the SEC smack talkers.

Until then, I have no freedom to speak my mind...If Hawaii Wins... Just be ready...

Apparently I Missed Another One

Prematurely sold Puts yesterday (RIMM Jan75 & FSLR Dec175)

I didn't even look at the Market today...
I have positions that have taken a beating - hopefully, set for Friday...
I am not buying anything for awhile until my position proves true for bears.

On my lone bull front AAPL, the T-Mobile again free to leave iPhones locked.

I am patiently waiting to get back into AAPL & RIMM on earnings.

Switching Bulls?

It seems as tho the FLY as well as TheStreet.com guys are going nuts over ag.

The Ags that seem plausible:
-MON: leader in seeds & genomics (trading in a nice channel)
-VMI: irrigation... (bouncing off bottom?)
-DE: leader in equipment (wud be nice to test a Fib fan on this)
-ADM: multiple comods & processing for food (really cheap calls/LEAPS)

Mind you Solars are still around. But it seems that Ags outside of equipment has somewhat kept undercover. Going long on these guys and not touching them may be a good idea.

Monday, December 3, 2007

Reading...

it was a tough monday for me. and i couldn't have imagined how bad it would have been had i not stock up on puts at the end of last fridays trading day...

reading a number of financial blogs/sites while on my break.
especially, BESPOKE INVESTMENTS & INDEXUNIVERSE

Bearish sentiment abound... protection against recession is a subject as well.

Technicals show particularly in IWM that though it "pierce" it's support as noted by Tim. Another site mentioned that it rarely trades lower than 76 area. I'm still holding my put@72 (at a loss, hopefully temporary). Mixed but acknowledged downtrend.

I really feel i missed out on the last winter rallies the last 2 years, having not participated in options. it's funny how just holding equities long at this point may have been the way to go (AAPL in particular).

I'm basically waiting on the side til friday... not much posting as well.

SOLD calls

I couldnʻt even hang onto FSLR. i briefly looked into the RIMM puts. but will wait maybe the day before friday.
weirdly, SNCR was up 10+%, iPhone? dunno. just a gap up? weʻll see come friday...

Portfolio A is full of bears... puts:
IWM (broke below 75.9 ala Timʻs chart)
GOOG
FSLR (old purchase & too far out)
SNCR
AKAM (Feb)
FRE (Jan)
DRYS(old purchase & far out)

lone bull: AAPL...(again, old buy & far out)

Iʻll take a break this week. Iʻm tired... "Da Bearsz" (thx SNL)

Sold LOSERS... Keeping Winners

RIMM Calls last week was a bad idea. good thing i bot some puts as well...which opened 100+% the only cause for pause was my leaning bullish at the time. I dig the company tho, and will line things up for itʻs earnings in January.

Not sure if iʻm dumb keeping SNCR. It seemed like it was heading back down. but the candlestick in hindsight plainly shows it has steam to run forward. i await 12/7

FSLR call still kicking. My LONE bull in this market are (is) solars. and a crazy AAPL call that was cheap tho far out if news develops faster than technicals or bucks the marketʻs bearish sentiment.

Portfolio A continues on itʻs downtrend. *sigh* HA! looks like iʻll get a tax return again on capital Losses...
Portfolio B sits doing nothing. Maybe i should at least buy AAV to get some dividends.

Iʻm having to step back a bit to look at things. Iʻm keeping all bearish positions otherwise, as Dec 7 will mark a "day in infamy" for wall street. Iʻm thinking of doing a few things old school and actually learn how to trade the technicals in longer period charts.

Thursday, November 29, 2007

Coincidence?

Looking Ahead to next weeks economic news, specifically consumer credit... an interesting date DEC 7 (1941)...

LONE BULLS

The Solars have had the knack for being the salmons of the market.
-FSLR is unstoppable and it seems STP is joining them in China

SHLD: i didnʻt know they reported today... missed an easy Put...

Gio is targeting them at the moment. It may be the case of the last bull standing... He suggests buying the little Solars aka the followers

My stops were designed for a snowball either way... i get neither...

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Where Are

Rally... BULL BUYS

Itʻs time to put the breaks on bears...switching gears
-oil is down
-hint of rate cut

GOOG: Dec750call & 800(far yes, accidental trade might as well ride it)
VMW: Dec95call
RIMM: Dec123.3call
AAPL: it triggered (too early)...

bot a former favorite: SNCR (my lone put buy)... despite iPhones selling

I still got Dec puts in IWM, DELL, AKAM, GOOG, Jan20put in FRE.

It looks as if the flyers will fly til weeks end...well at least til tomorrow
I briefly looked at FSLR... a break through 220 resistance and weʻre off to the 300s.
FSLR usually keeps stable when the market tanks and as oil goes up, also it falls AFTER other flyers.

Anyway, weʻll hopefully gap up before the bears make their comeback.

Bought GOOG

Dec750call@4.3.... despite everything else on fire, itʻs been an uneventful stock so far today... but oil tanking (pun intended),
any more rate cut talk by FED will send this thing smoking upward fast... I have enough puts for any downward slide... my Portfolio A is at an all time low... as i held on to my puts too long

Btw, Tim is a genius... heʻs a total bear and called a huge bounce for the day... my guess is heʻll likely cash out before the fed is my guess. heʻs the most diligent chart trader in the blogs iʻve watched. FLY is the definitely the bravest, heʻs the man in a bull market. But Tim seems to see the whole picture. Iʻm watching for him to call a top then i hope to cash my puts in the future... I think his use of Fibs & IWM is an awesome benchmark...20% up and down... cool... Altho my portfolio A stinks at this time, I canʻt help but think of the understanding iʻve gained in the last 2 weeks versus the last 2 years of option trading.

Long-term, this bounce as temporary.. the rally today has had so much underlying bad news
-housing sales "how low can you go..."
-Wells Fargo joins the long line of banks writing down
-Consumer confidence low
-3rd Q profits for banks down 25%

bleh... the rate cut wonʻt do anything to fix the almost mountain-like problems ahead.

in college football news...
i hope Missouri & WVU each win, so we get a scoring contest for the National Championship

Bot VMW

The Horror... This is strictly a technical trade... All this talk of "rate cut". I missed the run-up...but it seems it has some legs for at least another day...

If anything, I need a few longs to balance for the demolishing of my bearish position if it continues... The Fed report could send things either way...

Spooked Market

Despite the bulls in Global market today, thereʻs some sideways action in the U.S. Neither the bulls or bears seem to have the guts to push forward (possibly until the Fedʻs Beige book is out). Even the strongest of Bull, AAPL (GS upgrades them, strong sales indicators, iPod supplies low, etc) hasnʻt pulled AAPL in one direction or the other (yet).

In a schizo kinda way, itʻs killing both my bear and bull positions... the irony

Iʻm going to ESPN.COM & SI.COM to sort my brain...

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Fencing

Tho the Arab dudes bailed out Citi, i donʻt see them bailing out the entire market. The Market erased itʻs loses yesterday... aka many bears got buried (pun intended).

Each day the action in the high flyers open strong one way to end the day the other way. So I guess Iʻll jump on the fense and get a piece of both ends. So, with the FED talking later tomorrow, talk of home sales, and crude inventories... itʻs possible for us to get a strong bull open with a pull-back at days end. Iʻll set my stops/sell at both ends for Apple.
Bot AAPL Dec185call & Dec160put.

Such a Newbie

consumer confidence indeed stunk...however, did the market expect that yesterday?

I bot VMW Dec65@2... what was i thinking? It's so oversold!!! Anyway, my put getting blasted at this point. Stock is up from 71 to 77. Fundamentally, i do think ORCL & MSFT will squeeze out profits.

Mind you. The FED speaks tomorrow... buying VMW at the session end might have been more prudent.

The dip-buyers are all over the place today... Portfolio A is again getting slapped all over after being pampered yesterday. Of note, Solars are down a bit as Oil retreats w/OPEC possibly increasing production.

Portfolio B sits awaiting MacWorld or some crazy alignment of bull signs in tech.

Monday, November 26, 2007

Bravery Rewarded

Just when you think the Bulls win the day... The Bears get a seems like perfectly timed news in their favor.

Brave Bears bought puts early in the session (believe me it crossed my mind). GOOG, BIDU, financials, would have got you such a huge swing...
I added to my puts with AKAM. I have no guts to go against leaders.

I was really hoping for the market to fall a bit slower...

It pays to be nimble for sure... in a bit of irony, FLY (the baddest bull of the herd)posted last week a specific stocks in a variety of sectors he would position if he was indeed a bear. It's worth a second look...

The one and ONLY stock i'm bullish on days before earnings is AAPL
-SEEKING ALPHA lists a number of already OBVIOUS reasons
1)Products (Macs, iPods, iPhones)
2)Services (iTunes)
3)Revenue Sharing (iPhone plans, possible AppleTV rental)
all three work in conjuction with the other, and the storefront has continues to build traffic. iPhone & Apple Stores are expanding throughout Europe & Asia.
So, watch for Jan 15, 2008 MacWorld... get those calls in before then.

Weird Feeling

Something ominous is ahead. The Bulls pushed hard to my disgust... being that iʻm 100% puts. Then in time... wow... the leaders got their gains more than halved. Itʻs really tough to be a bull... But an idea...

Pattern for those who want to be a bear with a bullʻs horn
Buy day before...call side...then @ 1000am EST sell call/buy put...

Iʻm hanging on... looking for the indexes to break lower...
Iʻm especially looking at china...FXI/FXP

LEADERS LEAD...

Besides FSLR for some time now, STP puts are getting pummeled. I hesistate to sell here tho with potential bad news ahead. Altho Oil plays into Solars.

IWM is near it's support (or resistance)@76. If it breaks through, the bulls may spread past the leaders.

The leaders are continue the momentum from friday...most opened >2%

i'm considering adding to puts by way of financials: BSC especially... i'll wait for the end of the trading day before that happens.

Kirk's logic is barring further bad news, setting stops at Wednesdays lows will mark the bottom for this month on.

Having not balanced my portfolio A. My hesitation has again cost me (again).

Confusion Everywhere...

A guy on MarketWatch had a couple of articles posted on the same day... One cited insider trading where there was significantly less selling (i.e. holding). Then another article mentioned the Dow Theory where a historical technical bull market seems to be ahead of us.

The market signs point to a definite TREND down, with many bounces obviously ahead. Lower highs, Lower lows.

Oil, Credit, Housing slowdown (i.e. Foreclosures, jobless related claims, etc) seemingly are working together to bring this market into recession mode. The bears seem to have taken over China...

That being the case i'm not playing with fools gold. I feel i've already missed the bounce not having bought on Wednesday (i didn't wake up b4 the market closed) A few put positions are in place.

Selective leaders are there for the bounce: FSLR (esp w/oil going up), AAPL (<150 was the buy), RIMM (<100), PBR (brasilian oil co. that found more oil).

Gio (@intuitivetraders) has graphs i especially missed:
-DRYS (even i mentioned it)
-TNH

time to grab a bite...

Friday, November 23, 2007

Deals & Steals

Bought some stuff for work and other important things on Black Friday. some 35%, one thing i really needed was 80% off wow!

Unfortunately, coming home i see my puts are in the dumps. Iʻm late on AAPL since last wednesday, iʻll wait for a dip. Otherwise, i got in on IWM puts too early. I should have waited toward the end of the session to get it cheaper.

STP is up while, weirdly enough FSLR is taking a break... iʻm unsure if itʻs a buy here. but itʻs definitely facing resistance. Iʻll remember the day before Thanksgiving as another day to be a bull if but for one day. Iʻm waiting this out for now, knowing i might have missed part of this rally, but iʻve realized over-and over-and over....again That more opportunities await.

I lost some in the market today(digitally that is), while getting the deals and a steal with real money.

Warriors & Boise State... huge game... Tomorrow itʻs Missou & Kansas...

Write-Off Buying Spree

Itʻs this time of the year when i buy a bunch of stuff related to work that iʻll have to write-off on taxes... So, the market is open to me for an hour max... then iʻm off to spend $... iʻm avoiding Best Buy, Circuit City, and CompUSA... poor souls...

btw, College Football fans... itʻs HAWAII versus BOISE STATE. Maybe they donʻt seem like big teams to you. But it seems to me like they can outscore most teams that they play.

Oh yea, i bot some IWM Dec72put. If it gets to that point, yes (i hope) we are in a bear market...
Next week has Consumer confidence info and housing... too much risk for me to be bullish...

I am looking only to AAPL as a pure bull. but that can wait til Dec 15 when the FED talks.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

"Da Bearsz"

This market is schizo... i'm one who has placed limited risk on the table. i'm only in puts at this point. Tim's site has a plethora of charts to back his argument. The bull will have his day... it may even happen at days end for the "historical" annual rally.

Asia tanked...so

Sticking with the plan...
-STP Dec55put: will hold for now...well unless it swings.
-FRE Jan20put: will keep moving sell parameters daily. it's freefalling
-FSLR Jan125put: got no choice but to let it ride at this point

Eyeing puts in IWM, FXI, on any strength
Checking out calls USO, FXY

Da Bearsz...

Lastly, VMW shorts & put buyers will be rewarded greatly...

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Back In FRE... Also High Flyerʻs 50 EMA

There isnʻt much logic in going long... is the rationale behind buying FRE put again. This time itʻs Jan20put. Maybe i should have tried FNM (essentially the same).

STP is starting to crumble (finally). Iʻm looking for it to get to itʻs last support @ 55.


Although the hi-flyers: AAPL, BIDU, GOOG, RIMM, VMW... were all up today, much a result of HPQʻs quarter. I donʻt see much daylight ironically because of HPQ... itʻs bumping against itʻs 50 EMA. So much for itʻs strong quarter...



In fact they are all sticking around their respective 50d EMA
AAPL: technically speaking you can see a breakout waiting to occur. fundamentally solid to boot. expansion to Europe on schedule... even with revenue sharing being stomped on in France and possibly Germany... an unlocked iPhone is still a sale... Asia awaits... and a 3G-like speed version due by next holiday season. And last but not least, Macs are gaining mucho market share w/huge potential (3% worldwide/6-7% U.S.) Imagaine if they actually advertised the ability to run all software...

BIDU: worrisome chart. 2 tier supports @300 & 280... The hype around the Olympics will likely prevent that collapse from happening, but who knows... the China bubble could happen sooner

GOOG: they seem the strongest of the bunch technically. it would have to get break 675 before i go long... advertising will now slow. itʻll pick up for the holidays...

RIMM: itʻs consumer sales are key to itʻs expanding. corporations cutting back is a concern

VMW: the most bearish & weakest of the group. technically trending down (lower hiʻs & lower lows) and fundamentally will be battling ORCL, MSFT, & open source VMs. However, bravery will be rewarded here if it safely closes past 100. Huge reward either way.

SOLD!!!

FRE Jan35put@2.7 was a solid play... sold in 10 minutes. missed the peak by 5 min. The first solid bear play that was both planned AND executed beyond expectations. nearly 300% gain.

The only thing would have been better were December puts instead...

It's nice to finally pull off a solid trade while i happen to be at work...
...back to work...

Stay Away From Flyers

My obliterated Dec125put in FSLR is left to die.
On the other hand STP Dec55put remains in play. It could go either way. Pulled up by FSLR or brought down by fellow china energy plays.

FRE is my lone earnings play of the day. No relief is in sight for the Loaners. They got what they deserved. I'm unsure of how long to hold this thing being one in a crowd of financial losers.

Monday, November 19, 2007

HPQ beats Street

So, the question is will Tech follow?
After-hours seem positive, but i don't buy it...

Alot of factors tomorrow
-World Markets (i.e. Asia slumping at time of post)
-FRE reports (aka housing/credit)
-the FED talks (hint of cuts?)

It's a short trading week. Past history really doesn't guarantee that the same pattern will continue.

Whoops!!!

on Nov 14, I was looking into put buying in casinos in Timʻs site, and forgot about it. and whada ya know... LVS down 8+ looking at the chart itʻs gonna either rally(doubtful) or go down hard. bravery here can either reward you or have you eating sandwiches for months.

One Buy Thatʻs All

It was simple today. Bot FRE Jan35put@2.7... I didnʻt have any other positions that interest me. The FED talks tomorrow, so itʻs time to hope for vague statements that could be interpreted as negative. A rate cut is inevitable, but thatʻs not going to save FRE. So, that being said, hopefully tomorrows bad news is not already priced into the stock.

Two Anomalies:
GS. The bulls threw their hopes at it...tho it did get shot down. i red FLYʻs site saying, GS canʻt stay up, wudv been a nice put position

RIMM was an interesting rally point. Tech leaders went down, except RIMM. Couldnʻt find any news except an email service partnering with them. but i am not gonna try and call a top in this flyer. any positive FED talk will send it rocketing.

Keeping things simple...

FRE Reports Tomorrow

The financial sector may continue to get pounded tomorrow. Are we nearer to a Bear market than we thought? I personally donʻt care. I just want some direction either way.

Iʻm looking at some dirt cheap Canadian Energy Trust funds. Namely AAV. Dividend is $0.15/share and trades at $10.77 as of this posting. good deal...

Market Tanks...after I sell puts

Well, i kept a couple on board, otherwise i took some off the table, when they could have banked me some $. Iʻm essentially waiting for the end of the trading day to get in somewhere... possibly an index option instead...

The 1st 30 Minutes...

Itʻs always been a stomach wrenching part of the trading day. The exception is when the pre-market is Strong in your direction. Today, i sold out my puts in AAPL, RIMM, GOOG. The last 2 having a 20% & 13% gain respectively. Small loss in AAPL. But i banked nothing...

SOLARS continues to buck any down trend. FSLR is a monster, tho i wonʻt chase. STP traded up early on the day, but looks to be a victim of losing interest and profit taking. My guess is theyʻre moving to numero uno FSLR. So, being that my FSLR is basically worthless i held it and STP, well i figured itʻll taper down tho my Dec55put is far from banking...

Financials look weak as i described in an earlier post. But iʻm too spooked to get in there unless the direction is absolutely defined EVERYWHERE.

Oil moved lower today, but iʻm still irritated that it hasnʻt translated at the pump. 30 cents higher in the last 10 days? cʻmon.

Friday, November 16, 2007

SQUEEZED...

I did the biggest no-no for not having set my stops... not waking up @market open... terrible.

3 rules that i broke (have continued to break)
1) Setting sell stops... + & -
2) Pay attention to index
3) Just be humble and take the 20% already...

I AM TOTALLY LACKING DISCIPLINE...

iʻve missed officially on both ends and lost. we may be headed for a nice upside bounce this week. Iʻm unsure how long it will last. The so-called holiday rally is upon us starting next week. And the bulls have started "talking" down the bears. Bears must remain patient.

My STP idea was blasted yesterday...and FSLR totally beat me up both ways. Iʻm not chasing these guys. Itʻs too late...

My bear picks of tech were all green at the open...and coming home i found them red...if not close to it.

Iʻm switching gears again... the leaders roared back today...
RIMM, GOOG, AAPL

In my incredibly ridiculous errors. Iʻve found what i hope is a solution to my dilemma in setting definite stops, not based on the price of the option itself (where iʻll look @%age change), but on stock price itself. In study, i offer the following...

RIMM, i wouldʻve sold my put once it crossed below 99... and wait to change strikes.


my mind has been so stuck on a psychological gain...100%, 50%, 25%...that at times i forget about how the price & volume is involved in setting my stops. In the case of RIMM i failed to place a sell @1030 (75% gain). itʻs more likely that i wouldʻve sold @10 am. my portfolio A has in fact net-changed 250% in gain/loss.

anyway, looks like iʻm going to have to wake up early consistently. DISCIPLINE is whatʻs been lacking. Straddle plays may be the best for the time being. instead of the homerun... a base hit should be the goal... while the HR should be the suprise reward for sticking to the plan.

btw, Gio reminded me to watch out for the leaders in his examining my "PUT"s in AAPL, FSLR, RIMM, GOOG. He was right on. I actually paid the least attention today of the last 2 weeks and paid for it.

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Bought...STP

STP had great numbers today. So "naturally", I bought Dec55puts@2

My previous posts have cited this stock well over itʻs 50d EMA@47...
There you have it... a Bear play written all over it...

Back to sleep... my expectations are that i lose on this trade (to temper any anxiety on it)

Unsettled...Unsettling

Solars got a lift today on STP. Or was it just a bounce from yesterdays sell-off. who knows at this point. Itʻs still early in the day.

Tho negative sentiment continues. This morning Consumer spending worries into the holiday season has been forcing Retail to cut forecasts for the year end. The Phily FED guy says something today @12pmEST, so watch for some action thereafter, it looks to be that direction for the day to be more evident . options expiration tomorrow just adds more fuel to end this volatile week.

It looks as if bulls tried to scare off the bears at the end of yesterdays session... In any case a bounce today is expected.
Sub-prime write-down at Barclays actually less than expected. So, a firm bounce may carry til the end of the day...

It looks as if iʻm not going to be doing any trading today. Iʻm looking at the missed boat in CLX. Otherwise, my positions are bearish in my portfolio A (portfolio B stays in cash). Any rally here feels unsettling...

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

UAL & DELTA

Wow, now thatʻs an airline... What would they name it?
United Delta... hmm... Delta United... ahh... Dunited... no... Uelta?... cʻmon... United AirDelta Lines... man!... iʻm delirious... Please, somebody shoot me...

No really tho, my wife and I have a bunch of United Miles. Weʻre just waiting to see when we can use them.

There is consolidation thatʻs going to happen in airlines. So, how that affects their stock(s). Iʻm unsure. But itʻs been ongoing for a few years now.

MAD MONEY

MY PLAN WAS PERFECT!!!! MY EXECUTION ON THE OTHER HAND STUNK UP THE PLACE... I MAY SOON CHANGE MY NAME TO "STINKTRADER"...

I am really ticked off having woken up, thinking that my trade triggers were set...and saw i was still holding them. WHAT? So, my stop @20% gain turned out to be 13%+ loses. I was up as much as 30% today. Whatʻs up with that!
On a swing day like this i shouldʻve stayed up and manually placed them orders... i missed the tops...in buying puts

Itʻs Bear time... I sold ALL my calls(that didnʻt trigger correctly... no middle-fencing here...here we go...
GOOG: Dec500put (far yes, but the 2 tier supports (or for bears resistance) are found@614 & 580 is what i see...bottom being 521 (200d EMA), so thatʻs where i pulled out that 500...i donʻt need it to even come close to touching it.

AAPL: Dec150put. Could argue support from 145 to 150... I do think Apple will be fresh come January 15thʻs MacWorld...so i welcome the stock falling...

RIMM: Dec106.6put... the 2 supports iʻm eyeing 100 & 86...

FSLR: Dec125put... this stock is still far above itʻs 50EMA@135. it only makes sense...


I will close this post by saying after placing all those put orders in 2 minutes...each started posting 5%-20% gains.

Portfolio A (Portfolio B a.k.a stash remains unopened) as a result is now as silly and itʻs bottom since FEBʻ07... Iʻm stand by the roadside with a sign that says, "BRAINLESS, PLEASE GIVE ME COINS." (I donʻt need food...or a job...just coins to give to the MAN...)

Tomorrow will spell tell us whatʻs going to happen the next 2 weeks. As they say @ the Price Is Right, "COME ON DOWN!"

Heading Higher...

Today's action was helped by Bear Sterns statements as well as positive talk on inflation. All this of course can change, but looking at the pre-market @ the time of these "bullish" statements...EVERYTHING TOOK OFF!!!

So, being i'm still at work...i'm stuck (unrelated to my blog name) or helpless if the FED says something dumb again.

Earnings today of significance: AMAT, HSBC holdings, IFX, Macy's, SINA, so a mix of Tech, bank, retail AND Chinese names...

In fact, Chinese stocks are Cha-ching today...even before the positive statements from BSC

I'm checking out what the Bears are saying today... If anything, the semi-bear market has alerted me to technical trading more than ever before. And i am always on the lookout to get out or even flip the orientation of my positions.

Kinda the plan of the day... Let the rally run... buy put protection as positions continue positive...if not by days end...

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Let The Market Decide

Iʻm the dude that makes the brokerages alot of $$$. Anyway, this will be my last post til the market opens tomorrow. The green signs were posted, but will soon be removed. The talk from everyone is...Catastrophy.

My favorite Tech: aapl, had a bunch of news coming out today... :
-China mobile deal
-First day iPhone UK sales top 8000 (notice they didnʻt mention weekend tho)
-Greater market share in Japan spiking up to 53%
-Rumor of Flash-based SubNotebook come MacWorld
.....The result? a heft 16% gain.... likely 10% was already part of the rally... not sure if it was timed that way for stock purposes or just plain coincidence

Just something to think about. All the statements from GS..."no problem, donʻt worry" well beyond this week. You bet iʻm worried (if iʻm a bull).

My technicals stand regarding those above their 50d EMA. See previous post. The previous support for the bulls the past few months now serves as RESISTANCE!, so buyers beware. Tho there is for sure a small bull window upon us. Weʻll see how the rest of the world does...if they follow then itʻs a short-rally... if not... get your lists of "put" and shorts together.

Time to go to my real job... *sigh* 16.5 hours

A Way to Lose Money

It was tough foreseeing STP/FSLR puts pre-market... and yet i had nothing set aside for a bounce today. Well, I jumped back in and played both sides of the hedge towards the end of the day (sans RIMM), thinking that my picks would flatten out, instead they continued upward (thus another missed opportunity).
AAPL: Dec180call@7...Dec125put@1.1
RIMM: Jan150call@3.3 (cheap)... Dec76.6put@1.7
GOOG: Dec750call@7.1...Dec500put@1.85
FSLR: Dec250call@5.9 (rip off)... Dec125put@1.35 this stock couldnʻt stay near its highs like the other leaders, but aftermarket is kickin butt again

The puts may seem far out, but theyʻre there to prevent the worse case scenerio...
Otherwise 40% of my total portfolio remains cash...no touchy touchy til January... rhymes huh?
One of my portfolios has officially broken even *Ahem* (lost all itʻs profits YTD) - Thatʻs 50%.

Regarding a former favorites:
-VMW... i donʻt like the competition thatʻs coming. MSFT and now ORCL... besides a lot of open-source Virtual Machines already existing and gaining. No doubt that VMW is the leader, but itʻs window in keeping that status may close sooner.
-GS... i wished i got a position... since financials SEEMED to have bottomed.

PLAN: if this is a small rally take any green possible with tight stops. hope this momentum lasts through tomorrows open, then cash out. and eye out puts again... the Bulls & Bears will be pounding each other the next week or so. such a headache. In visiting Timʻs site & Flyʻs you have 2 traders in the trenches. Both with logical arguments... *sigh*

Well, i woke up to get these positions ahead of my 16 1/2 hour night shift... slept about 2hours... iʻm afraid if i went back to sleep i wouldnʻt get up. HANS products are calling

BULLS RETURN?

the moment i pick up puts (FSLR, STP), the market reverses. How's that for losing to the House. I must say tho, i totally saw the oil prices reversing... it's just that i didn't get any position on the call end... too spooked considering the aftermarket yesterday bleeding deeper.

WMT saved the day...Besides oil lowering... There's also merger news among the Domestic air carriers.

Everything is up... especially those that touched 50d EMA
AAPL, RIMM, VMW, BIDU... all trading pre-market in green...
Those familiar with the FLY will call him a genius today...

I'm more confused than ever. i'm neither bullish or bearish, just a pawn that's been used and abused...again...

Eco news this week a.k.a. find a dip..
11/13: Pending Home Sales
11/14: (830a)Retail sales & PPI; (1030)Crude Inventories
11/15: (830a)CPI & Jobless claims

One must work quickly in this market. And i'm stuck at work... the only place where i haven't lost money (yet).

Monday, November 12, 2007

After-Hours...Where to make $

There's a certain sense of fairness (i wouldn't use justice) in a bear market. I've been on the other side where my past posts reveal how in a bull market i'd have a solid pick and an analyst or bank would shoot that stock down because THEY think it's overvalued (just to manipulate the stock for THEIR entry point).

Now in a soon to be confirmed Bear market (i'm unsure if this is a short-term bottom), it's fair now to bank some change for having sufferd manipulations that hurt the individual investor.

This is the first time i've participated in a bear market. i'm not at all that confident in throwing a boatload of $ into it. just managing risk again.

A fellow trader (who's alot better than i am, if not more disciplined), reminded me to view this bear action as a flipped bull, which i know... but trading that way is completely new for me. Now, i have to think, this stock is NOT getting cheaper, but more valuable.

also looking good for the bears, still above their 50 EMA:
-FSLR, STP, SOHU, GOOG
-questionable in this group would be MA still 20+ points but fighting back and Visa's IPO may actually drive it up.

touching their 50EMA:
-AAPL, RIMM, BIDU, FWLT
if they don't rally tomorrow, it's going down... interestingly enough, i'm looking at LEAPS that are hopefully gonna be dirt cheap and pay months from now

The finance sector seems to have reached bottom
GS would be the only one i'd go long...which ain't happening anytime soon

The value stocks and certain currency ETFs are making $
-FXY, CLX, PG... obviously the ultraput ETFs are banking $ as well

In the end, like any trader... you would want a clear direction. things seem to be pointing lower, but lower Oil prices may give relief not to mention, Big Ben saving the day for the bulls.

Jones Soda... Turkey & Gravy flavor?



i like soda. but not this much. if the market continues tanking, people may be stuck drinking this instead of an actual meal

Bear-ied

The Bears continue to stand... As expected, 15 min into the trading day stocks rally... only to be shot down. I caught the tail end. And got a few puts in...for once not for protection, but for profit.

GOOG: Nov610puts@2.5 and it triggerred wayyyy too early @3.5 and proceeded to gett to 7.5, it was a profit but too low of an exit. it may rally tomorrw. Anyway, 610 is about itʻs 50dayEMA. bummer missed 300+profit right there.
STP: Dec45puts@1.6
FSLR: Dec135puts@4.1

i kept my positions small, in case Big Ben comes to the rescue. iʻm risk managing @ this point after my debacle on going bullish on solar, the day before they tanked. iʻd be sitting 100% profit on my total portfolio had i bot puts instead.

AAPL, RIMM, BIDU all got to their 50d-EMA. So, weʻll see if thereʻs a rally coming by weeks end.

Friday, November 9, 2007

Learning The Bear

Watched stocks attempt a rally @3:15. Thought of "putting". but chickened out...
It was especially evident in BIDU, which i will use as a teach sheet. The other Techies zigzagged before breaking...


It still has room before getting to the floor. It has to get to 306ish on a 50 day...


Itʻs wierd to look at this as an opportunity that may have passed me by... On the other hand, more bad news awaits...
Iʻm looking at LEAPS... Iʻm still hoping for the market to head down...but not too quickly...

SOLD EVERYTHING...AGAIN...Sleepy time

I lost more in dumping into in 1 day of Solars than i did in a few days of Tech. Shows you how much I know... which is why i have this blog to begin with...

If anything i was able to cut my loses with a small bump up...

I am not a bear at all...tho i want to be... itʻs hard to adjust to such thinking...
i will be reading up on it for sure...to prepare for the next bull run top

I can look forward to another tax return...since i didnʻt make beans...
In any case iʻm going back to sleep now that my portfolio has no risk...
At this point, i would love for the market to dive...albeit slowly...

I will await patiently...MacWorld...AND...any false positives...

I KNOW I SAID I WOULDNʻT POST...

BUT IʻVE BEEN BEAR TRAPPED.

Serves me right. I went against my intuition just to try and make a quick comeback... no such thing...

JASO: opened DOWN $10+
STP: which knifed me yesterday opened DOWN $4+ (mercy from yesterday)

If i just played the bear for one day...it shouldʻve obviously been today.

The Heavies in old Tech remain stable today...w/minimum loses (MSFT, INTC, CSCO)
-slow flyers, but also slow losers...safer...

basically, i have no choice but to wait this day out in no-mans land... i wish i didnʻt wake up early to this gut punching.

OK...frustration aside...
JASO had an awesome Q. As a buddy mentioned yesterday, he thinks they were hyped with sympathy run-up on FSLR.
The ONLY good news is that itʻs oversold short-term crossing the 13dayMA.

The bad news among many of the solars today is that itʻs way above itʻs 200MA...


STP doesnʻt bode well either...it was continues to cut...leaving me little room $-wise to decide to cut and run or hold

LESSON:
Never try to play prior to earnings if the stocks been up already... Learned that from this Stock Trends Crook that tried to have me turn over my $$$ to him. But he was right on..."Get out of a situation that you canʻt control" was what he said on his DVD. Learning from a slap in the head helps to retain such thinking

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Suggestions? Advice? Everyone has them

Cramer says (but Stucktrader thinks)
MO: tobacco company... (i ainʻt supporting those guys)
FCX: copper and gold mining (maybe)
FWLT: construction/engineering for oil, gas, refining, etc (good and a split in January)
RIG: provides offshore contracted drilling, rigs & work crew (o.k.,tho kinda flying to fast) almost no U.S. exposure
MHS: pharmacy benefits management in U.S. & Puerto Rico (nah)

Tim basically says be a bear... (he must be raking it in)

Gio says Solar...namely FSLR... (props to him)

Stucktrader says i donʻt know yet... (he, being I, broke his own rules) had i kept my put protection on my high flyers, i couldʻve softened the blow, maybe even profited. Alas, right now I am deep in Solar...and may cut out quickly if JASO doesnʻt work out...because STP has been a faster loser than my Tech holdings. There could be a play, which i missed in using USO call options as gas prices increase. Therefore, my main not-exactly-a-hedge on oil

I donʻt think iʻll get that 50% gain from here. Itʻs incredibly challenging... especially since I have better things in life to do than stare at my screen. Iʻll just try to manage risk from here...

BTW, there are long lines for the iPhone in Germany. Apple needs to extend itʻs mobile-wares A.S.A.P.

No More Posts during the Trading Day...

Iʻm done posting during the day... cost me $$$

Shoulda Went to $$$

Shoulda went to cash... I threw $$$ away at STP in minutes...

I ainʻt touching my account any longer today... My portfolio was fine before my lone AAPL call went down...

Sit on the side and ask questions later...*hands up in the air*

YIKES!!! AAPL dies with the rest!!!

AAPL!!! in searching all these sites...i failed to pay attention and BAM 183 TO 177!!!

FORGET TECH...IʻM IN SOLAR!!!
-Added more STP calls...Dec75@6 to existing Jan75

Huh? STP now sinking?

Someone put me out of my misery!!!

FED SPEAK and Stuff

Big Ben said things look bleak next Q. Tho he opened hinted a rate cut could come if need be. Time to plan for a recession.

Just a thought: PALM
Their Centro Smartphone (suckphone), may very well sell this year. $99 is cheap to have that title. Tho secretly, those buying or receiving them are craving a BlackBerry Curve/Pearl or an iPhone... but they donʻt have the mulah...

Hope this market continues south...jus so i get cheap LEAPS for AAPL...

BIDU loses support @370...
-in hindsight..it was struggling to stay above 400, wudv been a nice short/put
GOOG hanging in @700...
RIMM lost supports@130 &128...

Oh...Oh...Iʻm starting to like being a bear...
If it wasnʻt for AAPL...iʻd be a bear...

Booked profits...Managed Losses

GOOG: sell triggered Dec750@27.8...97% profit (shoulda took that 135%)
RIMM: sold Jan 150@9... tried to wait for a higher bid... 45% gain tho (had it @ 80%...)
AAPL: sold Dec190@7.7 (maybe shouldnʻt have?). 20% loss...

so, in short i went away from Tech and bot:
STP: why did i sell them last friday!!!??? Jan75@8.3
JASO: Dec70@9.3(high risk/reward)

held:
AAPL: Dec185calls (my original play) iPhone news awaits in Europe

iʻm currently looking to for AAPL calls way into the future!!! Read one analyst who thinks itʻs going to 600 in 18 months!!! Short-term the market absolutely stinks. and i wanted to get back into Solars. I have $$$ on the side, waiting for the bulls to come back... if not Jan 15 MacWorld suits me fine...

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Final Lesson for the Day...

If the FED is gonna speak... sell prior... if there are rumors of rate cut... sure enjoy. But once they get to the mic. Sell...

Panic is in the air because a FED guy said "We will not be raising rates..."
So, Wall Street says..."That means the market is bad..."
But then, Wall St previously had worries, "We NEED a rate cut."

Impatient fools...
Itʻs no wonder that during this bull rally, thereʻs always been a bear as well.

Lesson again:
Sell before FED guy talks

Get OUT!!!

ARG! a.k.a. AAPL/RIMM/GOOG troika couldnʻt stand

I actually thought i was having a little fun buying a smidge of a call on CSCO. But man, I didnʻt think the thing would be whacked a buck!!! they did everything... and the Market sank. Would you please tell these FED guys to shut up already!!!

Iʻm now having to scramble and taking a look at my main portfolio
GOOG: Dec750... there went the 125% gain
RIMM: Jan150... there went the 70% gain
AAPL: Dec185/190... well...not much but i was waiting for something...if anything, it has strength in news regarding the iPhone this Friday in Europe...

i congratulated a buddy of mine on his FSLR today... up 167 to 200+ in 10 minutes after the close... crazy gain... too bad it wasnʻt a tech company...

I guess iʻm gonna have to work more hours...this week after all.

Thanks Alot GM...

$39B loss? Common... Where was all the accounting during the last 3 quarters? Oil keeps going higher...

My eyes are also on the Solars (especially in hedging Oil). That energy group is doing what Ethenol did last year... i may buy future dips against oil.

The market looks forward to getting past today. Weaker dollar from talk of China banking on other currency. FED guys talk @0845 & 9; We have Oil/Petrol reports (1030); Consumer Credit (3). Talk of the S&P support@ 1490 is in focus. CSCO hopefully will blow by expectations and save the week.

I am not touching my positions today...unless there's a catastrophy...
- I'm looking for BIDU to stay down... and hopefully AAPL stays neutral, so i can get in on BIDU. it's a longshot.

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

WOKE UP AND...HEY, NOT BAD!

With the exception of my not having $ to get into BIDU. It actually dipped below 400! If that isnʻt a buy signal i donʻt know what isnʻt.

Anyway, i slept in from night shift and woke up to green signs...
GOOG: Up 16... nears my Dec750call
AAPL: Up 5.6.. blasts through my Dec185&190calls
RIMM: Up 3..... Jan150calls may strike in December.

Financials have a minor recovery. But Solars are on fire! (pun intended)
namely FSLR up 20! up 13% on a billion dollar deal... and they report tomorrow. their CEO actually cares about their stockholders
the rest follow up: JASO, CSUN, STP (should i have kept this one?)...

Not much to complain here...
just not enough $ to go around...
So slimmed my picks to what i know...

Having learned from VMW (which may near a buy),
I will not touch my 3 Muskateers...(GOOG/AAPL/RIMM)
I will let them trend up and wait out the blips.
If i can actually learn from my previous mistakes,
then this last run was worth it.

Monday, November 5, 2007

Mobile Might: GOOG? & AAPL?

GOOG: The Gphone as expected was more like a platform. But it seems as though it will take some time for it to be the force that GOOG is on the internet

AAPL: down on GOOG news of all things, you never know, AAPL may have it run on top of iPhone. either way, it should pick up in the coming days as sales of iPhone reach Europe. Not to mention ANY sales news. I continue to remind others of January 15 MacWorld as their annual stock pop.

RIMM: weirdly enough wasn't affected by the news as AAPL was...go figure, maybe it was due to their dominance in businesses...

It's soon time for the annual bull run... don't blink..
All this stuff about the credit woe has been sucking everything down...

Friday, November 2, 2007

Next Week...Whatʻs Big

More earnings...Eco news, namely "Consumer" Credit on Nov 7.


Whatʻs incredibly interesting is....GOOG
the Google event on monday regarding its mobile open software platform. It could be a game-changer (again). The whoʻs who of the mobile industry are backing them. My guess is that MSFT is not at all happy - they bought FaceBook, but who cares. MSFT has no vision what so ever, they just buy (or steal, or scare others from using) other peopleʻs ideas.

Whatever is announced...potentially could send GOOG up as fast as BIDU.

Itʻs just dawned on me how my option portfolio are now Big in mobile
-AAPL: iPhone, mobile media computer that people think is just a phone
-RIMM: BlackBerrys, enterprise communicator extending to non-iPhone users
-GOOG: "?????"

itʻs amazing really how these guys didnʻt have the clout as they do just 2 years ago. So where has mobile power gone?
- yesteryear: MOT RAZR...today iPhone... PALM TREO...today Blackberry Curve/Pearl

i have no idea about who really is affected by GOOGʻs announcements (outside of MSFT). It could be the biggest day in mobiles (especially in the U.S.)

Cut Out Losers

Well my plan to hold these guys as long as i could didnʻt quite work...

VMW: tanked as much as i feared. iʻm unsure of why i bot them in the first place, just to diversify. it will go up long-term, but a hiccup was in the making. i will buy these guys when the technicals look better.

BIDU: my lone option i bot some time ago finally rang green. i took my 25% being a november contract. maybe i should have cleared the deck and bot a boat load. but alas itʻs an expensive play. SOHU & SINA are cheaper, but BIDU rules.

STP: i sold...to add to AAPL. i donʻt need a flyer, just consistency.

AAPL: i strengthened here buying Dec185calls on a flat day. itʻs only a matter of time when news will send this stock higher (or lower).

RIMM: itʻs my darkhorse. it really doesnʻt have much news. just a bunch of bull-buyers. i may sell these guys and profits from AAPL to get a piece of BIDU calls.

So the balance sheet?
-AAPL
-GOOG
-RIMM
-BIDU (stock)
-STP (stock)

it may be out of my reach. but i want to get my portfolio up 50% from here...lofty goals yes...

Thursday, November 1, 2007

DOW DOWN 360

Well, itʻs amazing my portfolio held its ground. Though tomorrow may be another story.
The FED pumps $41B into the market. not sure what itʻll do for the market

VMW: i worry about views that itʻs overvalued. i think iʻll wait for another pop then sell
AAPL: solid. no green...but just plain solid. The released MacBooks.
GOOG: made green...at one time 25%...closing 16%... honestly itʻs still got mojo
BIDU: still heading north. no doubt
RIMM: lost ground, but solid aftermarket buying.

new: STP: i purposely shot a low bid and got it. this will be my China/Energy hedge

missed a few trades today. Gas/Oil companies weirdly enough never do well short-term when oil goes up. Alternative energies are the way to hedge the downturn.

Iʻm setting triggers to see if there will be an initial pop (however unlikely it may seem).

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Play the Earnings

itʻs been a recent pattern recently where the non-fliers have returned huge rewards... INTC & MSFT as examples. the strike out of the money is so absurd that i would have positioned myself in them, had i even looked at them.

or another way would be the far-out calls on zig-zaggers i.e. MA... huge reward! iʻm now waiting for SHLD...

Nov 1: WDC Nov30@$.15 trades $25.92
Nov 2: VIA Nov45@$.20 (transformers!) trades $41.36

I will be listing these examples.

GPS...and recommendations

it seems GPS on phones will soon become mainstreem. so much for privacy. my co-workerʻs play on it included GRMN, which was shot down. But SIRF on the other hand blew earnings...and is still undervalued I.M.O.

FSLR is still kicking butt, i have STP stock instead.

Some imply MSFT, INTC, DELL are insulated to FED volitility, being catagorized in the slow flyer group. MSFT continues to live off its monopoly if u ask me. I think DELL is now out of the woods. so, as much as i hate them, i may give them a play. INTC was a favorite of mine, if AMD continues to have problems in price/performance vs INTC then who else is gonna stop them?

Consistently I keep reading that AAPL is well-liked. Itʻs guidance seems to have brought in stability and a sort of protection from sliding as quickly as my other holdings: VMW, RIMM, BIDU or GOOG. In that case, I may very well drop these guys and go AAPL... rumors abound of a stock split. I donʻt think itʻs necessary, but who cares, since itʻll drive it up...

Economic data continues to pour out this week. I hope the FEDʻs cut will stem any bad news going forward.

Nothings Changed

FED gave a quarter % rate cut and hinted it may not do so the rest of the year. Itʻs a neutral stance...So, where did i position myself?

AAPL: having successfully traded out of Dec175calls (15% gain) i moved to Dec185calls. however, my sell trigger came as the Fed reported. it moved so fast that it triggered an immediate 18% loss...that had it been left alone would have basically gotten back to something negligable. I ended with a Dec190call@9.55

RIMM: Jan150@6.2 theyʻre in china now...they have a lead before AAPL gets there next year.

GOOG: Dec150call. finally have a piece of them. google phone social platform API news is getting out, tho misunderstood. besides AAPL, this stock is one that canʻt be denied as a sure winner.

VMW: Jan150@7.4...i already missed the action this past week. but it still has room to grow. this is the only option i have some worry about because of itʻs huge run up. But i believe thatʻs where it should have been anyway. I wonʻt go into my story of the falling "knife" again.

Straight up stock include:
BIDU & STP. Can move as fast as options at times...

I will indeed switch my Scottrade to Zecco. Execution is faster, not to mention cheaper. AMTD still has an awesome interface and services that will make up for anything i may not find in Zecco.

Basically, my positions are somewhat logical but carry greater risk than purely staying in the money. i didnʻt have enough capital to go around...so went a bit further out on strikes in December. All strikes are potentially within a week away from getting in the money.

The Early Winner is...

MA. talk about blowing out expectations. it's up 17% as i post this. if u had the guts to get in prior to FED. you deserve it... i'm tempted to buy puts here, but i haven't been successful at that all year.

AAPL: moved my Dec175calls to 185 to lock the profit, while lessening my cost basis. at the same time, if the FED cuts - the reward would indeed be greater.

There's green all around...hopefully it stays that way.

PLAN: wait for FED's cut then buy GOOG, VMW, BIDU, RIMM, and more AAPL.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Ahead...The Fed...

I woke up again...to find what was possibly a missed opportunity. 17% gain on AAPL Dec175calls... And getting out of BIDU Nov470calls with a 9% loss(very acceptable). Alas i viewed the ending of the trading day. If i were a genius, i could have sold those positions - and bot cheaper calls, moving a strike out while decreasing invested risk.

The fact is, whatever the FED wants to do, i think AAPL will go up with holiday buying here... because of the customer base it serves (fanatics, fad buyers, rich people). And FORGET Leopard OS box sales. They are geniuses, the hype behind the OS will move many to buy a new machine with a perceived "free" OS upgrade.

But hey, i do welcome the cut...i will buy calls in:
-AAPL, GOOG, VMW, RIMM, STP(china/energy), BIDU. tho probably canʻt afford them all.

2:15pm (10am HST) is when the craziness begins. . itʻll either be bargain buying or rushing into hopefully the most bullish time of the year! (Nov, Dec, Jan)

Ahead...The Fed...

I woke up again...to find what was possibly a missed opportunity. 17% gain on AAPL Dec175calls... And getting out of BIDU Nov470calls with a 9% loss(very acceptable). But alas i slept through it and caught the tail end. If i were a genius, i could have sold those positions - and bot cheaper calls, moving a strike out while decreasing invested risk.

The fact is, whatever the FED wants to do, i think AAPL will go up with holiday buying here... it was the only stock i could confidently position prior to the FED because of the customer base it serves (fanatics, people who donʻt mind buying "cool", or just filthy rich people).

But i do welcome the cut...i will buy calls in:
-AAPL(more), GOOG, VMW, RIMM, STP(china/metal), BIDU.

2:15pm (10am HST) is when the craziness begins. I canʻt wait til daylight savings starts next week. hopefully, we also trade into the most bullish time of the year! (Nov, Dec, Jan). So, thereʻs no rush here i was willing to wait til Friday for things to pan out.

Wait and See...

It seems that it's most prudent to let the rest of the week shake out. My buy in AAPL Dec175calls may indeed have been an error. it's been flat or down from last week. I'm hoping for the FED to indeed give us a gift. AAPL is much more affordable than GOOG or BIDU. Their guidance is something they're confident they'll reach.

On the BUY watch: STP seems the best (beating FSLR). it accomplishes 2 for 1 position, China & Energy all tied in one. Earnings 11/15. On top of that Jan65call@5.60. suprisingly cheap considering Dec65calls are 5.00

Monday, October 29, 2007

Defining Strategy

So, as VMW illustrated. Iʻm not bad at my picks. my execution regarding short-term stinks. so what to do? Treat my positions as regular stocks... ups and downs but trending up.

With that in mind... i bot AAPL Dec175calls@16.5...
I also attempted RIMM Jan125calls@13.65, but failed to bid up quick enough...

I have my spec BIDU Nov470call left in play. why not?

So as for this day... whatʻs my option strategy?

IN the money calls 2 month+ expiration...watch...let it ride...
OUT of the money calls - 1 or 2 days before earnings or expected news...
China & Energy will all be longs. I will do my homework... tho i could just get FXI calls for china if iʻm too lazy

Option Strategy Look.

Using VMW as my benchmark...

had i kept Jan90call (bought 10/5 @12.70) today: 33.1... +$2040

what actually happened.

Jan90call sold 10/09 @18.90 (+5.80)[total +580]
10/09: bot Nov105call@8.2 10/10 sold@11.0(+2.0)[+780]
10/10: bot Nov125call@4.5 10/11 sold@6.80(+2.30 x 2 = +4.6)[1240]
10/10: bot Nov160call@2.0 10/11 sold@1.45(-0.55 x 4 = -2.2)[1020]
10/11: bot Nov130call@5.8 10/29 sold@2.80(-3.00 x 2 = -6.0)[420]KNIFE DAY!
10/11: bot Nov155call@2.0 10/15 sold@1.0 (-1.00 x 2 = -2.0)[220]KNIFE DAY!
10/24: bot Nov80put@1.35 10/25 sold@.15 (-1.20 x 1 = -1.05)[95]
10/25: bot Nov85put@.50 10/26 sold@.35 (-0.15 x 3 = -0.45)[45]

mind you this doesnʻt include commissions...so, itʻs a negative.

learning cost $$$. may strategy may change...

Sold VMW

the orignal Nov130call trade was the worse that iʻve made since starting this blog. bought into a falling knife after a huge run-up was missed. As a result i missed the upside 20+ from pre-earnings b/cz i didnʻt want to place more in the position. iʻve seen this position -82%. So, -50% looks bad, but it was worse. I realize i may have sold a bit early. (i thought the FED report today, when they wonʻt til wednesday). but i couldnʻt stand watching them based on THAT position. it was time to move on... reset my head and jump back into VMW fresh in the future.

i missed yet another day of china (cha-ching). theyʻre all green, especially the solars (no pun intended).

i will add a china watchlist since this is where the $$$ is going.

Friday, October 26, 2007

MSFT

They didnʻt exactly save the market. Actually Halo did... In any case, I am kicking myself for throwing $ @ BIDU and missing a 600%+ gain on MSFT calls @ 35strike! and it wouldʻve cost a mere 340 to return 1780 as an example. my failure to cover based on prejudice has again humbled me.

I didnʻt get up any earlier this time around...if anything maybe i should have just to sell my VMW 130calls. itʻs been my sore spot in my portfolio. The good news hopefully is that Tech will be solid when earnings season ends...

The eco news next week makes things a bit dicey to genuinely play anything.
AAPL: possible news of record Leopard sales over the weekend...

*Lesson play the unexpected...in this case no one expected much from MSFT, their calls were dirt cheap...

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Beat The Street...But Beaten Down

SNCR & BIDU. all beat expectations and yet my options were smashed prior to announcements. itʻs as if the market was being pulled down. and i have no control over the matter, being that i couldnʻt stay to wait for the market to close.

winners so far over the last 2 months
PALM (puts), RIMM, AAPL, VMW, SNCR, BIDU (acutally just today)

losers
STV, XFML, BRCM... the 1st one really stunk up the joint after the first 2 days since the IPO.

PALM had a weird thing happen...related to itʻs dividend payout as well as a private firm buying a chunk of the company. I have Jan10puts & May7.5puts... and as u might have seen... the stock dove today from 18 to $8... so you would think iʻd be sitting on some 20 bagger... but all these options that were once worth nada are now Non-standardized options... i have no choice but to ask my broker about the true value of the these puts

Added A SPEC...

BIDU Nov470calls@2.2 suprised i got a good bid... donʻt know if itʻll blow up or crash. but there are too many $10 to $30 days that pumps those far out calls. so, i decided on picking north for BIDU. it is long term... short is just volitile... but Nov is cheap

New Home Sales Rise = VMW up...

So the green light (for today) has gone on...

VMW is en fuego

AAPL doing exactly what history dictates today...

The Bears are Back...

VMW is struggling to keep things up. Bot Nov85put to go against my nearly extinct Nov130calls. wish i cleared this loser earlier. the future for the company still bodes well. itʻs parent company EMC did meet earnings. but the market is ignoring the news of housing problems as reported in MER write-down of housing loans.

tomorrows housing and jobless claims data will hopefully define direction ... i may just let the Nov130calls die... itʻs nowhere near recovering this week or ever. i just want a pop in the data either way...suprise up or down....
eco reports next week inlude:
consumer confidence & spending, construction, hourly pay, etc...

btw, AAPL dove accordingly 2days after earnings report...recovering about midmorning... i canʻt wait for earnings season to end and capitalize on AAPL & RIMM potential...

BIDU reports very late (8pm EST). lotsa buying. wondering if expectations are too high...i will let the market settle and possibly straddle this beast. if anything i will run to BIDU far away from the crazy U.S. Economy.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Comeback...

Well I sold a bunch of stuff...namely AAPL... the buyers came back. i almost bit when it dipped below 180. but my experience with VMW last week got me to play safe. And when one plays safe, the return is small to moderate. Maybe it would have been better had i not even woke up to watch. Though selling RIMM was a definite good thing.

Happy VMW blew threw earnings. Regarding whether itʻs enough to pull my nov130 out of the hole is another story. Then again, if it could just catch fire as did AAPL then there you have it.
-sidenote EMC reports before the opening bell. iʻm unsure how negative news would affect VMW if any.

BIDU is something i may add as my spec. the calls are expensive... the cheap stuff is so far out...but the rewards are great. and bad news w/housing and oil could provide a further dip to get in.

GOOG has always been on my wish list. Dec800calls (sounds crazy!) but thatʻs a reasonable spec play.

anyway, the plan is to wait it out till about 930am EST regarding VMW before the homes/oil news are out, jobless claims are declared before the market opens. If there is bad news from there, i hope to get in on BIDU.

Bought VMW puts

Nov80puts@1.35 if they donʻt blow away earnings...this stock is gonna tank...

AAPL contracts sold

It couldnʻt find day support @185. sold Nov180@9.0. Bummer, i was hoping for profit that iʻve gotten on past rallys, wish i took the green @187 with Nov180@11 somewhat dissapointing. long view still holds. didnʻt have an exact number to sell, which may have been my downfall. but 25% is a solid gain, albeit i couldʻve gotten more sleep & $ had i sold yesterday. iʻll wait for the earnings season to die down. iʻm looking at Dec calls. i figured iʻd cash out the Nov150puts also, which i should have placed a trigger on.

Keep Jan 15 MacWorld as your next green day. I hope to use what iʻve learned today. in other words. sell as fast as you can on news. donʻt wait around...

Iʻm hoping for blowout numbers from VMW today. of which i wish i sold early in the day to bring strikes closer...then buy at a reasonable price.

Sold RIMM...watching AAPL, BIDU...

Well i sold RIMM a bit too early or late. It profit dipped followed by huge runup then proceeded to settle. i wanted to get ahead of the housing and oil stuff. wanted to actually realize my gain.

AAPL is not behaving as itʻs usual self. No solid bull today. Iʻm holding as long as i can today...

BIDU just watching options...being far out on both ends could be rewarding come Friday...

Note: AMZN, BRCM, SNDK are long buys. attempting BRCM May55calls@.25

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Hint from a friend

He says buy solar...which i previously asked him in an email

FSLR, JASO, YGE, TSL. of course, i listed the one with the most action first since January up from 20ʻs to 150!!!

WOW! RIMM? AMZN(ouch)

AAPL: I was so disappointed in the inability of option call buyers to hold calls up. I initially had a chance to sell Nov180@13.7, but it settled to 10.7 - The test comes in early trading tomorrow. My plan holds that they go green another day then sell off. *Lesson learned (again) in selling early in the session (asap) Specifically when pre-market +$10. Take the initial ask and sell!!!
I will be up at market open, i will sell the calls on any premarket green!!! There will be dips ahead thx to the credit woes, oil, etc... when the earnings season ends and sales news start to dominate many opportunities await

RIMM: Bam! I wake up and find a gift! I had no idea the thing was trading the way it was (the curse and blessing of nightshift). They have a distibution deal in China...in other words (they beat the iPhone to Asia). I will look to sell this thing quickly if red at all appears

AMZN: on fire today...however the profit taker sell off have seemingly dragged the rest of tech down in afterhours. if the buyers comeback on AMZN being cheap then it could be a nice day for everyone... in the end AMZN didnʻt meet the "whisper" numbers...

BRCM: disappointing Q. hence my incredibly low risk position. sat on this thing where i shouldʻve sold prior to report. Iʻm hoping that they too donʻt drag the bunch down.

VMW: the stock keeps trading in itʻs 98 to 105 range. waiting for direction after earnings tomorrow. doesnʻt matter what it does prior to earnings report... the action comes after. i will look for some puts @ 80. wish i did so before the market closed today and hope it actually zeros out...

SNCR: I think they will suprise everyone (me included) in one way or another. I will strictly hold my calls w/no puts. own 1 contract. hows that for confidence?

Predictions? AMZN will make a comeback in late trading...
Note: BIDU is an ATM....king of option action! if it goes 10% green one day...hey get a far out put...& visa versa. tho decidedly trending up...you canʻt go wrong!!! just set them triggers everyday...

I have more important things to tend to at this point

Early Pop fades

I should learn by now that the pent up buyers would bid up the calls that settle. I watched my Nov180calls(bot@7.3 to 7.6s) were as high up as 13.7. that's a 80% gain my friends.

So, set your trigger next time an blow up in earnings come along. profit is a profit but i'm getting tired of missing these things. i guess i just don't want to miss the total upside. it may very well track that way the rest of this day...

Monday, October 22, 2007

AAPL WOW!!!

AAPL handily beats earnings AND actually guided next Q higher than analysts!

It relieves my dumb move of buying into the Nov180calls too early. It sank in front of my eyes about the time i noticed it usually settles (about 10:30 -11 am EST). Got in @7.3 & 7.6 tho a half hour later i saw it @ 6.5...

So, the historical pattern for AAPL is the next 2 trading days will be huge!!! usually followed by profit taking. But with the guidance they gave they'll get to 200 well before December (man i sure was staring at those Jan250calls...cheap). Short-term, i'm getting out on Wednesday or maybe place a trigger on Thursday. I will buy dips and sell quickly, with plans to buy Dec calls. From here, i am circling Jan for MacWorld...the annual stock pop... For now, the market environment will temper my buying.

On my "call" board this week are :
BRCM(23rd): who cares about this Q, guidance that includes their new chip that will be in all mobile fones that matter (iPhone, BBerrys, N series, etc) is what i'm looking at...if it dips go long...
VMW(24th): toss up. it's had a run up to this point but was shot down last tuesday...knife anyone? i will take my knife loss if earnings disappoint.
SNCR(25th): with the AAPL report 1.39 iPhones bodes well, but how many were actually activated with At&T? If they're involved w/the european telcos they'll be fine.

Oh one last thing...I can't stand Scottrade, this is the final straw... It's a good thing i have ameritrade... I will say hello shortly to Zecco for trading, while i use Ameritrade's tools. I mean c'mon 10 free trades a month and options ($4.50 + .50/contract), no that's how u make $$$...you cut costs.

AAPL Pre-Earnings/ After Market Hype

This is similar to RIMM earnings. The buyers are bumping AAPL past $12 as i type this

Eureka! Iʻm Dumb...

Just looking at VMW today... which i hold Nov130calls (an earlier post reads panic buy)...

I just realized this thing would be stuck right about in the 98 to 102 range... and everyone is trading around it. i donʻt know what VMW will have to do in its earnings to blast this stock up again. But had i paid attention i would have sold this puppy when it failed to break 105 on Tuesday... itʻs a tough lesson learned as a result of a falling knife...

Good Read...

Read up on this dude, "Options Addict". And he summarized in a better how iʻd like to trade one day...

" I try to put myself in a position where I don't care about the market. When I start my day every morning, I don't run to see what the market is doing, I run to see what my account is doing. I try to put the market in position where it is irrelevant to my account."

Stucktrader interprets: cover your butt

"I like to play things somewhat safe with my accounts. I stay diversified at all times, and always have a hedge against the market and or my account positions....always hedge with other instruments, [for example GLD], specifically S&P Futures (Short), Crude Futures (long), and added to some Index puts on the Nasdaq (small position)"

Stucktrader interprets: cover your butt

"dollar cost averaged in only the best deals available"

Stucktrader interprets: find stuff thatʻs cheap and arenʻt as volatile
And hereʻs his wise outline for us dummyʻs to follow... iʻve actually done most of it...and iʻve numbered for myself...

1) Risk management- Plan your loss before planning your profit.
2)Diversification- Be bullish, be bearish, be involved in various groups/markets.
3)Proper Position Sizing- Trade small, trade safe.
4)Effective Trading Plan- Make sure your plan works, and/or makes money.
5)Cutting Losses Short- Enter a trade that offers a small loss.
6)Letting Winners Run- Don't kill your winners.
7)Curbing Your Emotion- This is a bi product of trading small.

Stucktrader interprets:
1) be ok with your risk
2) cover your butt
3) "diversification"
4) ????? my guess is make a plan and stick to it...
5) ????? buy red?
6) this doesnʻt seem to be a problem with most...
7) make sure you can sleep at night

All of this makes a lot of sense. When this day is out and i have an idea of what AAPL is gonna do for the market, i will re-examine this weekend (if not sooner) my positions and do a little fine tuning and drafting positions.

This Market is Nutz

Talk about volatility.

If u daytraded VMW, you are a genius.

Risk/Reward

I may have over-risked(if thereʻs such a word) in going all in on calls in Nov versus spreading it to Dec and Jan. Part of it of course has to do with Scottrade being straight up stock.

Going forward i have to go with the gut...which doesnʻt feel very good. But unlike my trek in VMW, i have found AAPL a little more predictable. However:

"Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are looking for Apple will earn $0.86 per share on $6.07 billion in revenue for the quarter, compared to a profit of $0.62 per share on $4.84 billion in revenue in the year ago quarter."

Apple pegged this Q to be $.65/share. now talk about expectations. the miracle number would be $1. but disaster would be anything less than $.86.

I really hope my insurance doesnʻt have to come into play til the end of the week, if at all i hope it zeros out.

Mentally Retarded @ Mid-Morning

like a dummy i got in my AAPL calls at the top of the midmorning (fearing a runaway miss) but alas, i should know better. the only good news regarding that is that my puts were bought shortly thereafter.

iʻm admitting to yet another example of emotional trading. the green blips lured me to buy.

the market doesnʻt have alot of smiling faces. thus far. i agonizingly wait for AAPLʻs earnings... and i fear their guidance for the current Q to be far too conservative.

Calls to mind my saying "I will not touch AAPL til January at the earliest". Oh well...

(added later) bot: Nov180calls@7.3 & 7.6

Ugly Open

VMW: the purpose of this site was that positions like these would be something of the past. i watched the market open and saw VMW call position negative 90%! granted iʻve been waiting to clear this thing. now itʻs in no manʻs land

AAPL: has indeed been the savior of my portfolio. and i continue to hate Scottrade for keeping me out of my options account. so i settled for stock action. this account will now surely go to Zecco. I canʻt say enough how much i hate Scottrade!

RIMM, SNCR, BRCM, etc will all depend on AAPL.

I wanted to add SNDK, but i read they came out with this dumb idea of hooking up their cards to a hub for TVs. that totally turned me off. the stock itself is up nice as it deserves. solid Q.

instead of throwing some $ at SNDK, i bought insurance for AAPL position Nov150 puts. i hope itʻs not too far out if there is a sell off. nonetheless itʻs there to save a catastrophy from happening.

Sunday, October 21, 2007

What's Going Down?

Hopefully NOT AAPL. I'm looking to spread the wealth. Calls all over the place: Nov170(existing), wanting to add: Nov180, then Jan170, maybe Apr200...to protect downside.

In any case, there has been nothing but increasing market-share #s and suprisingly high iPod sales through analyst spot-checking. holiday buying is starting early. Not too mention Very brisk OS X Leopard sales...

VMW: it's run has staggered. i'm hoping to cut my loses.
RIMM: it'll make a come-back, no doubt.
SNCR: as iPhone goes, they go...

SNDK: they got pounded. i'm looking at Jan42.5calls & Apr42.5calls. there is no way they don't sell a bunch of stuf for the holidays. no emotional trading here, just plain logic

Saturday, October 20, 2007

Waiting AAPL...The savior of Tech...

If i could read the market, sure i wouldʻv sold Thursday... even closed my positions on my losers (some of which i did...STV).

The market on monday will be about one company...AAPL... even if iPods donʻt meet expectations... iPhone revenue sharing with AT&T will help numbers. But the biggest number people are going to see involve Macs - specifically MacBooks. I keep seeing them at starbucks, the mall, anywhere that has WIFI.

VMW: wish i closed this position. i only hope it follows AAPLʻs lead
RIMM: it will move higher. tho i wish i cashed out on green also. this is not a good time to be in the market. take the greens when you can. If they come out w/a touchscreen version, then - back in your truck...
SNCR: they benefit from iPhone (legal) activations - enuf said
BRCM: they showed the future. and their guidance is what i think will blow people away.

i will add SNDK to the list. they were shot down. big time with their guidance, which i think will be blown out of the water...

PALM: why do people keep buying these guys? iʻve bought enuf puts in them. Centro? puleez. iPhone & BBerrys, not to mention LG & Samsung all have phones that blow Palm away.