Sunday, December 28, 2008


I am not the bit excited about the market. Its boring to tell you the truth...

But my last blog prior to taking a "vacay" has worked out thus far. I am surprised at how oil just cant get any momentum going.

But my FAZ position and RIMM Jan 30 puts are so far plus... I really have no reason to change a thing. I will be watching others (particularly the pro dudes) that trade as bigger events pop up. Especially, just before and after Obama is inaugurated. I suspect the Market will react with volatility with every decision he makes...

So, if you thought it was hard to trade 2008... Well, 2009 doesnt get any easier. With that see you in 2009...

Friday, December 19, 2008

FOOLS (BLACK) GOLD? FAZ & RIMM puts again...

I sold my stupid DXO... in other words, DXO will no doubt go up Monday. *sigh* So, thank me later. Found out that it is basically based on an index related to 2009 CL contracts... in the end, the auto bail out didnt do anything for oil, and OPEC cuts havent budged it much either. I will pay attention if oil does bottom out. We shall see how desperate OPEC gets and if the economy can even afford oil when people cant eat and have to pay off their newly refinanced homes.

Like a FOOL, i went for Jan 30 puts in RIMM. The thing is, they are expanding to the consumer space... where there is ALOT more competition. And for maybe 50% that have tried the Storm - myself included... think its just not there yet. I will say i still like their other phones. But that's just my opinion.

I also was up when i saw FAZ @ 36+. But i didnt pull the trigger. Being that Mr. Bush did his thing... Thus I kept thinking this would tank to the 52 wk low... In the end i got it at 38 and change and will let it pick up steam for next year.

Otherwise, my now smaller portfolios are 30% cash. Just waiting for some incredible advice... maybe KIM or other REIT commercial related properties are the way to go (Props to Fly). And IF there is a long out there, it is solar (Obama-backed!). In the end it will be hard to kick the bear around past January when reality sets in.

I am off to start a vacation... somewhere...

Obey the VIX.X

Well... the VIX bounced off a low - bearish - if not, avoid going long.

Anyway, being that i have puts on RIMM, i hope its market wide...

DXO i still hate you... the views out there include thoughts that oil is near its bottom, but that it may be months if not YEARS for oil to get back. But remember, Obama is not into the black gold.

Well, i will unfortunately have to get up early to sell the RIMM puts for anything greater than $0.

Thursday, December 18, 2008


Aright, i am now totally annoyed at my DXO. I have no doubt that OPEC will indeed cut production even more... but its taking up $$$ that could go elsewhere.

i bought RIMM Dec 30 puts today. shoulda bought them yesterday, but i just forgot about it. in any case RIMM made there Q estimates and guided "ok" for the next Q.

There Blackberry Storm is helping them and cursing them at the same time. I havent heard so many people wanting to return a phone at such a high 50%... even after the last update. And yet that piece of news didnt make it to the traders desks. I will indeed buy puts again on RIMM in the future. But for now at least i took the risk, which i guess was already priced in.

FAZ would have been the perfect buy for me today... or yesterday actually, which someone in fact did as i follow a bunch of traders. i should just listen to these dudes... and skip my reasoning some times.

Well, options expiration tomorrow means SELL SELL SELL... that will be the only way i come out of this last RIMM position with with a minimized loss.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

SOLD FAZ/HELD DXO on Monday... Wassup for Tuesday

Well, i was able to watch the (digital) tape and saw FAZ bouncing back and forth 52 to 53. Sold it at $51.87...

I figured there would be some action by OPEC that would be reason enough to hold DXO. Even though it would have been a nice sell at the open and buy back at the close kind of day.

The Fed
They will likely cut rates... further depreciating the dollar and (possibly)boasting oil prices again.

I was right to have my eye on UUP puts/UDN calls... and yet i forgot about entering those positions... another day more opportunities. we shall see...

Friday, December 12, 2008

Missed the spike @ the open...

Today however, would have been a good way to trade out of FAZ and get right back in next week...

Man with a spike like that i would have sold FAZ in a heartbeat... and yet living here in Hawaii i am knocked out... 4 am hasnt been kind to me in the past. If anything i would wake up and go right back to sleep.... but i have missed hmm 4 trades in the last month that would have banked me huge... i refuse to relate them as i dont need any reminders. goes to show that this isnt easy trading... and even those i turn to as my gauge are caught by surprise, and yet they have enough hedges to get through volatile days.

DXO tho has nowhere to go but up... it seems that eventually the auto suckers will get their bail out money... they are just buying time until mr. obama gets in...

thus, the ideal trade for me today was to sell FAZ at the open and buy GM (yes they make some ugly cars) but hey they ended higher today 25%... pocket change for most of you, but its all about survival with my portfolio at this point.

I am just trying to keep things in check so as to participate for next years bear storm...

Will be back monday... hope a spike happens somewhere... and i am awake for it...

Set It and Not Forget It

Well, there seems to be some agreement & deviation among opinions of my gauge
- some say buy oil here, others say no
- some have taken profits on shorts or added long hedges

In either case, it would have been good for me to sell my FAZ (22% profit) at the open and reenter them today. Ah, the joys of living in Hawaii... not Wall Street friendly at all.

In any case, long FAZ was never a bad idea.
Will find out if OPEC helps my DXO next week.

Otherwise, i am 'stuck' right here...
btw, its weird to see FXP hold its own with the market slightly up...

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Messed Up again... late DXO... likely sell tomorrow and hold a few for a long hedge.

Well, i finally get a chance to catch up on what my trader gauge in the form of iBC, TIM, MAC


But what can i do, I had more important things to tend to...

So, my DXO position according to the 'Gauge' is likely messed up... And my position if FAZ will only make up for loses in DXO. At least my lame FXP call will likely come to life once more...

OH, and dont forget to check out UUP, UDN, come to think of it I was looking at FXE (Euro) awhile back, and that would have been a better position than DXO.

Bear days are here again... but we shall see how things end in 2008. Any Auto Bail out settlement will bring the bulls back out to play (which i want to years end... then we can smack the market in 2009)

Switched SKF to FAZ... Bought DXO... What else?

FAZ 3x bear was just a matter of time when it was going to make a move. The fact is it was cheaper to get in and the potential going forward is a 52 wk high of 160s were reasons to switch from SKF.

I did buy 200 DXO. My feeling here is that oil will have to go up from here. Why? OPEC coupled with the devaluating of the U.S.$ will not make oil any cheaper (not to mention the general media talking about oil to $25, a weird but useful signal to go contrarian). And then we will have a double whammy on our hands. Unemployment AND Higher fuel costs... my 2nd block of 100 shares was NOT suppose to go in. Rather i was looking at adding to FAZ... oh well... I will unload my 2nd block on any hints that oil goes below $40...

oil news is ahead of us, so it might have been a bad time to get in on DXO... otherwise my switching from SKF to FAZ just when FAZ broke above $44.

So, in the real world the advice to everyone should be to get out of your debts... NOW... the govt wont be able to take care of you - so save for yourself.

btw, i am looking at UDN calls or UUP puts... i.e. shorting the dollar. Do you honestly see the dollar getting fixed any time soon?

Wednesday, December 10, 2008


I woke up just 2 minutes to the market closing... Too groggy from nightshift. Wanted to get in a call somewhere today or buy oil. Didnt happen...
My FXP Jan call continues to get ripped to shreds... while SKF holds its own, with thoughts of switching to FAZ.

Its a market where general picks have no place. If i had a chance tho, i would buy FXP calls here... It goes to show that you can let the market come to you rather than the opposite.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Likely Switch SKF TO FAZ

The fact that Tim highlighted FAZ being at current levels is very intriguing. I mean if it turns out truly as 3x bear versus 2x... Then FAZ has the potential to be a HUGE winner, but it has yet to attract as many traders as SKF. Thus, I will switch out one of my accounts from SKF to FAZ and hold it well into 2009...

As to if this rally continues... it still can. So, I refuse to be baited back to options for awhile. My options just lose value over time with the choppiness.

Vigilence Required

I am in no way celebrating the market starting down. For all I know this is a dip in the eyes of the bulls. The only thing that matters is the last hour of trading. So, again I am 'stuck' with my positions.

I will hold on to SKF as a true long into next year. And will add call options if i obtain more capital for the big bear awaiting in 2009

Monday, December 8, 2008


I totally am rooting for RIMM to sprint all the way to earnings. why? because the Blackberry storm will NOT save RIMM. I like my Pearl and will likely get the clam shell version of it soon... But in its battle against iPhone, it is no match and with NOKIA N97 waiting to come state side, RIMM will be in for a rude awakening come earnings day. Besides, they already revealed that they had to cut guidance for the current Q (or was it year). So, they are basically showing all their cards.

Incidentally, RIMM reports on options expiration week... PERFECT STORM... and I am not talking BlackBerry Storm... Perfect Storm to put.


The good news... at least i wasnt stuck going long on SKF calls.

Bad news:
I sold my lone SKF put, when i shouldve added as a hedge.
-It would have easily enveloped my loss.
I should have sold FXP call yesterday and ate the loss
- Now this loss is bigger and i am exposed to the short side
- I have no hedge!!!

Simply put, i am not in a position to 'trade' or at least daytrade. i should have waited for the close to enter a position. but at the same time SKF stock was a smart move in terms of avoiding options... the risks/volatility are still there, but at a more manageable pace.


Well, i had enough of options. It was my fault to begin with in not setting a stop on my FXP calls a couple days back. And I paid for it.

Its time to finally LEARN how to take advantage of my resources: GIO, FLY, TIM, CHART_ADD during the market.

I am just not in a position to deal with volatility... cant keep my eyes on the screen while i have other stuff to do.

Sunday, December 7, 2008

Obama Speaks...How will Wall Street react?

Obama plainly put it straight. '...economy will worsen..."

And there you go. Monday will be another day where the bulls will have to beware yet again...

I will not add to my position unless we have a huge gap up or down... Oil is up for the time being. It seems that OPEC will cut production... in a huge way. So, my eye is on that as well.

In the end... Long-term Short on the market... short-term bull on oil... but i need a good entry... i am stuck again with my FXP call, but a SKF put...

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Year End Rally? Oil comeback... Old calls

Well it seems as though we may get that year end rally (which i want).

It looks like DIG/USO calls and Airline puts are the way to position for the imminent production cuts that OPEC is saying will be 'severe'... Well, that wouldnt be cool for those of us who want cheaper flights. And expect your gas to spike as a result as well. Buy your gas before Dec 19.

Old Calls
my AAPL, POT, YHOO calls are too far out to get any of this bullish action. If they did somehow hit green i would guess the DJI would be back in the 10K range... doubt it.

Will see what is in store come Monday... i am still >75% cash... if we continue going green (without an opening gap) i will consider adding calls. Again DIG/USO calls might be the way to go.

Friday, December 5, 2008


We have been warned (by the charts) that we ARE going lower... This see-sawing trend is LOWER. The thing is, it just might not end that way today... we have to wait til after the weekend for that to happen - let people think about how bad things are. But DOW back to 7k is a matter of when not if. And I think we go <6k to celebrate the new year.

either way you look at it > 500k jobs lost is never a good thing. so, i hold right here with two main positions
FXP Jan 100 call... yes i do think it will be that bad
SKF Dec 80 put... safety if a miracle rally breaks loose.

I need cash to wait out any spike... being how i missed out on 2 big moves while i held that crazy HTX. The thought that HTX would simplify things was a mirage.

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Bought FXP... HTX error/loss... AND SKF puts

BOUGHT one FXP Jan 100 call...
BOUGHT one SKF Dec 80 put... to cover my butt.

HTX error..
Pluuueeez this was such a useless trade. A loss... The options sold in my account were not actually mine (because of the option symbol change related to the dividend)... How is that for advertising Ameritrade. They of course didnt charge me for the error made, but they did have to fix it for their books. The options in the end are worthless.

So to rub salt in my wound, my funds were not available to add another position today... thx *sarcastic* ameritrade.
And the thing is it cost me last week on the volatility: losing out on calls on Ultrashorts (FXP/SKF) and after shorting/putting the Ultrashort options. ARGH!!!

Anyway, my tax guy will have fun figuring that one out. A stock bought about 20... dividend payed 13.55... stock sold $4.xx. So, it was a loss. But then again its a dividend gain (at least i am only taxed 15% on that)

So tomorrow is a HUGE day for the bears. consumer credit, unemployment numbers, nonfarm payrolls... OUCH! Why was I hesitant to to load up my shorts? Anyway, nothing is for sure... but i am bracketing FXP/SKF...

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

HTX experiment failure UPDATE: success?

Well, my understanding of how options work with a dividend was lacking. It seems at this point that my options are also worthless.

I still await a payout. And I ended up losing. It seems that I will get paid the $13.55 as the stock itself dropped like a rock in value from 17.48 to about $4. Note that i bought the stock @19.20's... so in essence pre-market I lost 8%. Again not to mention the basically worthless non-standard options.

The irony of the whole deal is that i thought this was a more stable way to approach the volatility.

I will not be participating in any more dividends of this sort (except maybe oil/energy trust funds that pay out monthly without a hit to the stock)

This totally kept me from participating in the recent swings. I didnt have an entire understanding of how this works. I did in the past own Palm puts prior to a dividend. I just didnt recall how that worked out. I didnt bother owning the stock, just the options puts, which in the end netted a loss.

I probably will hold on to the stock and see where it goes.
I still await my pay out. If I dont get it... I am totally messed up...

My five Dec 12.5 puts did kick in. If anything I should have bought alot more of them. basically spent $40... including costs. Each sold today @1.25. The January Put however didnt do a thing.

Another note. My scottrade acct is a discount broker. So, until HTX pays them out, i DO NOT get a cent of the divident in my account. A Scottrade rep told me it might be a FEW days because it is a Chinese company... (Hmmm more reason to short China later). Anyway, My full-service broker, Ameritrade acct paid out from their funds.

Learned much today. Confusion at first, but at least I have a profit

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Watchlist Ideas FROM OTHERS

TIM: Watch the Euro
- my watch on it FXE is about 52 wk low. All time low 118.
- He has also done well with DIG stock/calls

MAC: AXYS... reverse head and shoulders

FLY: short mostly China (i whole-heartedly agree, see my previous Asian soccer post) long a few 'things', look out for energy to get higher

GIO: watch the VIX... be alert to another bear day

I do like all these suggestions. I especially cant wait to cash out my dividend tomorrow and wait for another huge VIX reversal. The long term view of FXE is a possibility. I am looking at next years calls with a strike at the high of 160.

HTX ex-dividend pay out: Dec 3rd.

Well, i have to wait another day. And i feel that today will be a huge day for bears if we gap up today at the open. Either way, i think we sell off at the closing of the day.

Of course, I hope for a rally tomorrow. So as to enter new puts.

This week of eco news has everything leaning for the bears. I am yet stuck another day with HTX until the pay out.

Monday, December 1, 2008

Sold AZK...Payout Awaits... Rally Hopes Diminish... One Long Idea

I basically broke even or loss a little. But i knew the crash was coming today... :(

Payout HTX
Ok. So, tomorrow i better be seeing my accounts with a fresh batch of dividend cash. From there i will wait for any spike that comes our way OR panic buying of any sort.

Like i said in a post a couple days ago, I hoped for a rally at least until the payout. Didnt happen. Thanks Mr. B. Anytime the FED talks we can expect this kind of reception.

He likes UNG (natural gas), which makes much sense this time of the year. If anything it might be in its own bubble if it turns out to be a cold winter. If that happens, I sure hope people out there are ready to wear their heavy coats indoors (being that they have to save their money to pay off their debt or mortgages). But for now History says its time for Natural Gas to make its move

One more thought... OIL cracks <50 at the time of this post.
I think the bears are in for a big day tomorrow... Here is hoping (or wishing) for a gap up so as to fade and a closing crash tomorrow. Hopefully my funds will be available to participate, as i couldnt do so today.

So, that is officially two huge swings that I missed, options expiration Friday last week (huge rally) and today double inverse calls. Those were likely better pay outs than the HTX thing, but i cant look back. In the end I had less anxiety because of the approach taken.

What Will Happen To The Asian Markets? OH BTW, Notice Oil Dipping Again.

Our pals in the orient, like most of the world will try to foresee things... (short or long term)... and miss badly. Frustrating yes, but entertaining if you are just watching.

At the time of this post. Oil is down a few bucks. That possible DUG call trade in a previous post is building merit. Either way my money remains 'stuck' in HTX until the pay out Dec 2nd.

This week looks like a bearish kind of week...

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

AHA! DUG watch... RIMM... Hopeful Rally... & HTX

Its approaching its 52 wk low. Awesome. Regarding one can easily say that this is how oil trades to begin with... Oil goes up in late spring through summer and comes back down again. Its just that we had an extreme version this year. Sure I kinda agree with that. But know this that Mr. Obama is not an oil lover. Thus, I love DUG falling like a rock until Jan "something" when the dude gets in office. I hate politics otherwise.

RIMM... this is a heads up on next Q earnings. 'Put' it
The BlackBerry Storm is getting bad review after bad review. I like my BlackBerry (Pearl), so i am not a hater... This doesnt bode well for the stock. The Storm was suppose to stop switchers going over to the iPhone... The only ones buying the Storm are VZ people who have no choice. But from what I am reading, people bring it home and get tired of texting on the thing with its click screen. The OS/software hasnt adapted well away from the scroll ball navigation. I foresee BlackBerry spending more $ on ads (ala MSFT - VISTA). But bad product is just bad product. There are nice things about it, but its main feature the click screen will kill it... If you dont believe me, this one statement from one site says it all - "Vista got better reviews." or the NY Times says "I've got a better name for it: BlackBerry Dud." Wait for them puts next Q earnings report.

Well, i do hope this rally carries to years end. It only sets up for a nice Bearish start of the new year.

It finally stop dropping so fast... It will eventually drop with the dividend pay out, thus my puts are in play. But i need some value left in the position to sell. So I continue to hope the Rally continues at least past the pay out.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Like I said yesterday... Landmines... I 'Kinda' Told You Look Out

Boom... Bam... sorry rally oh wait... Bam...

Well, thats the kind of day i pictured today... So far its been this way. I was hoping for another follow through, but i knew the eco news this week would do some damage if not temper a runaway rally.

Well, it was the GDP that whacked the market. And yesterdays post has a list of what eco news to look at come tomorrow.

I sit on my HTX... yes they are in the red... but remember, i have puts that were waiting for this to happen.

Remember, all this up and down stuff doesnt matter, its where we close the day.

Monday, November 24, 2008

Landmines to Negate The Turkey Or Visa Versa

My crazy scottrade acct left my order yesterday as AZK open, when it didnt get in yesterday. I really didnt want it to go through... oh well. Gold goes higher from here

Well, Home sales were down but that didnt stop the Rally

Tuesday: GDP & Consumer confidence are in play
Wednesday: Income, Jobless claims, New Home sales

I will learn to strategize from TIM, FLY, GIO, ChartSwing, StockBee. Going long this week despite the eco news seems to be what the street is leaning towards with history to back it up. Then again we havent had the kind of volatility in past markets so, who knows.

I am happy to sit with HTX stock and put protection to boot for now and wait for the dividend.

No real trades for me til Dec 2nd

You Probably Already Saw this Clip... Peter Schiff

Peter Laffer... your are such a joke... I 'LAUGH' at you.
Tom Adkins you looked like an idiot that day - now you ARE an idiot.
Mike Norman... in answer to you: "NO, you dont know what you are talking about..." Now I am LAUGHING at YOU Mr. Norman.
Charles Payne... YOU are feeling the 'pain'. He chose WM!!! ha!!!
Unknown Female... just be happy your name wasnt on the screen.

The BEARS love you 5 idiots... My guess is we will see you again on any extended Rally.

Cavuto... you are suppose to be the moderate not lean in a direction. You are worse than ALL of CNBC. (But not worse than Cramer)

The only one that had class in those clips was Ben Stein. He wrote a NY Times piece apologized saying Mr. Schiff was right.

Enjoy this nice Bear rally. I am licking my chops to get back to puts once i get my HTX dividend.

Mr. Schiff predicted Gold... GLD... enough said, I will lie in wait.

I FORGOT TO MENTION... sold YHOO PUT on Friday... Stuff

Well, its late but i am still unwinding form evening shift at work.

Anyway, i forgot to post that i sold out my YHOO puts for a 100% gain. AND i am wondering if i should have also sold my other NOC put too.

Anyway, I have a few puts out there (HTX, NOC) and some old calls (AAPL, POT, YHOO, PCX). If you notice, all of my calls are high flyers that move VERY fast on a rally. I know there is also RIMM, GOOG, BIDU... but RIMM might have some news from its newly released "Storm"... and GOOG/BIDU calls were just to pricey for my poor account.

I am vested in HTX and will likely not touch a thing with my positions. Although, I might sell that other NOC put after all. If we rally hard, there is no sense in keeping it... we'll see. Because i think next year we start the year with another drop off related to bad holiday sales.

My market gauge: FLY, TIM & GIO, CHARTswing you will have one thing in common. DO NOT SHORT. Expect a rally. I personally hope it doesnt go hard, just so i have a chance to participate once i get my HTX dividend.

Market opens in about 3 hours or so... I am going to bed.

Friday, November 21, 2008

Its the Weekend... Here is another reason i stopped really trying to play guitar

one of my favorites. the musicians that back Satriani in this clip are very talented. Listen to the recorded version and compare it with the live one. The rhythm section is very well-known... Enjoy

Summary: FXI puts, NOC puts, HTX & AUY

I tried to squeeze out as much profit from my FXI puts. I did ok, but i wish i sold the thing yesterday. It all still landed a 25%+ profit. And my exit was just before FXI buyers came in.

I also sold a put on NOC and left the other alone. It was one of those trades i didnt think would do much until next year. But hey $25 one week $125 the next... pretty sweet. Maybe i should have sold both... Too late. (Anyway, you now have an idea of how much my portfolio has turned poor because of bad management. It used to be a modest 5 figures for years - it is down to four)

I bought HTX with the proceeds.... just as it was breaking higher.
(I had THX puts in place since Tuesday to protect the stock).

And i sold AUY with the thought of buying even cheaper...AZK or a GLD call. But i ran out of time...

The point is that it pays to plan things out... this was my most thought out plan that actually worked (for now). And had i looked at GLD earlier, i would have got in. People are getting out of banks and back into Gold...

Those actual bars of metal that Tim bought were a good idea...

FYI, Brian... no more credit to you until i get my pay out. but thx...


Props to Brian again...

So, you want a guaranteed return without volatility?

HTX... It must be bought before November 25th. Technically you have until Monday. But my guess is that this stock will actually get higher and the market might have a massive bounce next week.

If you dont already know, they are dishing out... GET THIS... $13.55(U.S.) per share!!!

And just to protect this position further I bought a few puts with the strike at the 52 wk low a few days ago. That way if (or when) this stock tanks (after the payout), i got my insurance built in (and possibly a profit as well).

Here is the catch... you must hold it into Dec 2/3 for the payout. And the thing is, we have ALOT of eco news next week that can give Bears mo'money (imagine the Dow <7000). So, its choosing between a sure thing with a nice payout OR 'potentially' quadrupling your portfolio. Its YOUR choice and YOUR risk.

NOC put...
Btw, my long put REALLY paid off. I wish i bought a ton of it... Bought the Noc put at .25 last week, sold it today for 1.25... and the thing is the stock is up from where i bought the put. Nice...

SOLD FXI puts (left one on a contingent stop)... FLU VIRUS... And a preview of a special trade...

There is just too much risk to keep my FXI puts so i sold most of the few that i had today. It will pick a direction and it will happen fast. Unfortunately, for some they will have to wait for the close to see how this ends. I figured I would take my 28% profit (sigh... that profit was 64% yesterday). If my lone fxi goes ultra green sure i will be disappointed a bit. But if i end up losing the bank on it. That would be worse.

I was basically sick yesterday, but not as bad as my wife. I was nearing a constant sore throat, but man there is this thing that actually shortens a cold and stops viruses from multiplying (thus, in this case the full blown Flu is basically stopped in its tracks). It is natural and from a special berry. cool stuff. Why... Because after what should have been about a weeks worth out of work for my wife has slimmed to 2 days. I told her to stay home today to make sure. And now she is cooking me breakfast. Pretty good huh.

Well, a clue to what this is related to is a huge dividend... Pay attention and I will let you in on it on the last hour... Special props to my friend Brian who shared this trade with me. Mind you... I want the best price for this so I am not saying a thing.

FAT BOUNCE COMING... I should go back to sleep.

We (in Hawaii) have to suffer getting up before Rosters if we want to be fully involved in the market. I cant believe i am waking up for this... am i nuts? It looks like my puts will be smacked today. The Pre-Market shows FXP down 17%. Good thing my FXI is not a 2x ETF. The point is that the VIX told me to get out yesterday, and i didnt do it. Unfortunately, i now will be seeing for myself that a Vix 80 is indeed a reliable gauge to exit short/put (and just MAYBE go long... but OUT of short/put for sure).

I am thinking about just going back to sleep. No sense suffering through a bad day. the thing is i woke up in case the market gapped down at the open, if so... there was no more playing around up or down... it would have signaled a rally. But as we all know the Market never cooperates.

As for my bloggers gauge:
TIM: chances of a strong rally are good
FLY: well he went Long on Wednesday
GIO: DO NOT short here
MAC: We are now overstretched(due for a bounce) and maybe have one more bad day
Stockbee: quotes someone, 'we may get the mother of all bounces'

its too bad i could only assimilate this after the market had already closed. but what a way to learn. one more day of a return might also mean missing a bad day the next day. Lesson learned again here at Stucktrader. As I ingrain into my brain VIX 80.

UPDATE: I am going to sleep 40 minutes after the open... I have no reason to stay up now that i set my sell/alert triggers. I didnt want to be stopped out on volatility if a solid trend is eventually found)

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Asia finished up... Is that real? Or a "Blue Dream"

I used one of his mellow songs in my wedding reception. It was one of those details that probably only my wife, myself, guitar people (and the poor folks who sat near the speakers) noticed.

Anyway, Asia being up or down has never really affected the U.S. Market of late. Goes to show how this volatility has been a nightmare to some... and others hope its just a "dream" - enjoy watching the guy who proved i should stop wasting my time playing guitar.

WOW AAPL at Pre-iPhone levels

I bagged 5 figure coin on AAPL options on the release of the iPhone in Jan 2007 MacWorld. Unfortunately i lost almost all of it back to the market... as you know i am only making a comeback because of old puts that came to life and thus gave me some $$$ to get back and be a bear.

AAPL is not a stock that i recommend anyone owning. But the calls are insanely cheap if you wait for LEAPS that will be released into 2012 or more added to 2011. Apple has no choice but to eventually taper the price down And forget these exclusive contracts with AT&T, because they would essentially rule the U.S. if they were with Verizon & T-Mobile. That being said, I see this stock going to 50... if nothing cool comes out MacWorld '09. 50 is a buy level... into a LEAP. I know a few people that lose HUGE bucks to AAPL. I love the company, products, etc. But i hate the stock (for now).

Anyway, i caught a cold or flu from my wife and am fighting it off with non-OTC drugs that only masks symptoms. The drug companies keep fleecing us without curing anything. Outside of the ICU and Asthma attack related drugs, I thing drug companies belong in the same catagory with the BSC, LEH, FNM, FRE, AIG, GM, F of the world.

I have one trade to tell all of you soon... You will thank me later... I will in advance give props to Brian. Nothing secretive, but price sensitive. As you know i have little left in this market to make a sizable dent.

RIMMs New STORM (not Bold)... FXI will be up today?... The Big 3 compromise

The newest Blackberry doesnt affect me as i refuse to be on Verizonz network. They are sim' less. In other words, they lock their features and sometimes stunt the features that are built on the phone itself.

Now that i got that negative disclaimer out of the way. Reading the reviews of the new Storm have been like the market - a downer. Mind you its not a crash. Descriptions such as big, heavy, confusing, and here is my favorite "the worse of both worlds" in regards to its mechanical touch screen. This does not bode well for RIMM. I will say if there is any positive news that spikes the stock i will buy a long term put on it.

I knew i shoulda sold this thing yesterday. But you know, as I said yesterday, the nice thing with FXI is that it may not reward you like other ETFs but it surely wont kill you either. Anyway, there are some buyers today and some positive intraday news. But its now how the day starts, its how it ends... its been that way everyday... not sure if today is one of them. I continue to hold FXI.

The BIG 3 Crybabies
Well, looks like some ground is being gained by the Big 3. I will say this would be my compromise to them. All the executives take a gigantic pay cut... i mean no one gets paid more than 200K. How would you feel about that? No stock options, no "fired" pay, nothing... The laborers are the victims (altho their unions may have made some of them lazy). The thing is, how is it that Hondas and Korean cars (i hate their car quality) have factories set up here that do well? Its the design stupid!!! Even if the Korean cars and more so that Hyundai logo annoy me (a cheap copy of Honda), some of their designs are just nice to look at. Korean cars used to be really ugly, but they figured out how to make them less ugly than american cars...

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

The Big 3 Crybabies. Oh, Finally FXI moves with the Market

Well, I cant stand the Big 3 Automakers. You know, it WASNT TOTALLY their fault that oil WAS at an all time high leading to their SUV minded demise. Nor was it their fault that those that back up financing for the people buying cars were busier lying in the governments face in how more $$$ would help their liquidity.

But in the end it IS their fault that they build some of the ugliest cars in the world. I had a conversation with someone long before this debacle. Outside of their high end stuff have you noticed the designs of their mainstream vehicles? It seemed like Dodge was going in the right direction early 2000, but have you noticed how the grills of their vehicles look like darth vader? Or have you seen how their once leading Mini-Van, looks like a 70's Van... just a van! Then you got Chevy, hey can you make your ugly logo even bigger? Why not just build a car in the shape of your logo... And finally Ford, i have to strain my brain to think of any vehicle that isnt a mustang or an F-150... in other words, nothing strikes me...

They have so many different models... For what? Look, I have never owned an American car. Or at least one with an American Logo (Hondas are actually build here!). Hondas are American built... (and now so are the Korean cars). They each have one simple car to handle a particular market. But the key ingredient is that each of them dont embarrass the driver (well maybe the Honda Ridgeline Trucks still stink cause they too are ugly). OK... enough of my ranting...

Jee, thanks for finally moving with the market... I was hoping to sell here but didnt do it on time. Mind you, i still think the Dow goes lower. All this Rallying is on LOW volume. I wish i had SOHU puts or dream i had BIDU puts a week ago. FXI just doesnt reward you very well, but in a volitile market wont cut you to pieces. So, I have no choice but to hold another day.

FOMC awaits @ 2pm EST... Question is what happens...

Can we think of any more bad news... and if FOMC show stuff we already know is that a good thing?

Anyway, todays CPI was worse than expected, but the Housing starts better than expected. Pretty much sums up the relatively flat market we have been experiencing the last few sessions in terms of the closing numbers.

But if you are a brave day trader, well... you will either make a bundle or be smacked.

15 minutes to the open... sure Asia got whacked a bit, but it hasnt meant too much to the U.S. market.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008


Well, there are positions being made by some to go long from here as the S&P stayed above 800.

The bad news on Friday will dictate whether we stay abouve 800.

Despite the closing rally, my new position HTX Dec 12.5 puts all went green today.

BIDU will likely bounce up from here... FXI didnt fall with BIDU and neither will it rally with it. So, i continue to hold FXI puts. Today, i had a chance to take a small profit. But Friday data is worth the wait or weight. And its weight might be... and yes that is a play on words... will be worth the wait. anyway... forget it...

Gio mentioned the mythical 'Sysyphus'. A guy who has to push a big boulder up a mountain. Well, today he was able to push it up enough to get past where he started today (market closed green). But tomorrows follow through will start green with bulls coming in... and then reality will set in... the big reality comes Friday...

So, i await Friday... and I cant wait to get past Tonight (my real job)... no long shifts the rest of the week.

Perfect Timing to buy HPQ puts... I cant for now...

Well, fade the good news... I already placed a 2 trades elsewhere today and have reached my cap on my available funds some time ago... which is why i went for penny options.

But if any of you want a nice trade... HPQ puts might be the one for you. But if it goes bad dont blame me. But chances are you will bank coin on it.

Maybe i will sell something to get in on it... but likely i will continue to hold FXI puts...

My Tuesday Gauge...So far i added 6 HTX puts... Two ways to save money

TIM: "increasing overhead"
FLY: catching swing upward...that wont last long
GIO: no update... in other words nothings changed
Chartswing: no update
StockBee: he recommends 4 books...

As you can see the only one actually doing something is the Fly. Brave... I continue to hold my FXI puts AND a smattering of 4 other puts and 3 calls.

I added 5 HTX Dec 12.5 puts @.05 each! cant get any cheaper then that. I was surprised i got my price AND one Jan 12.5 @.10. As is usually the case, the puts that do well for me are the ones that i dont bother looking at.

1. Deals
Btw, Black Friday (big holiday discounts day, that traditionally starts the morning after thanksgiving) has already started for some retailers... These include Circuit City (bankrupt... so why not), SEARS/K-mart, Walmart & Best Buy. As an example, a 46 inch 1080 HDTV can be found <$800.

2. Pay off debts... dont make new ones

I am done for the day...
Anyway, i rarely watch TV.

Monday, November 17, 2008

BIDU puts = Big $$$... But i missed it

Well, someone called a drop off on BIDU last week. It was pounded today. Too bad it didnt move my FXI puts anywhere. BIDU puts were huge. $5 this past Fridy = $250 today.

Otherwise, the market is boring... and even bears have added a number of long positions. The lack of buyers is keeping things here.

The eco news this week likely will tip the scale either way.

My Trading Gauge...

GIO: beware of impending 'flattening heavy ball'
TIM: 'untradable slope'
FLY: crash postponed, but eventual
STOCKBEE: 'is the [ALL] bad news priced in?... range bound... Hedge Funds cash'
Chartswing: 'no clue where we head...'

Well, nothing substantial. But definitely a rally has just so much resistance. This type of market has only had the same outcome every few months... it eventually CRASHES... and yet the squeezes and lack of volume out there temper the bears. If there is any sign of a bottom a gigantic wave of buying could occur. That is the conundrum. I coined the term 'miracle rally' for one reason. At this point it would be a miracle if it happens.

I have one major position. FXI puts. And number of puts everywhere and two momentum calls. For those calls to strike would be a miracle... historical...

I have some laundry to do and this 'talk' that i have to outline before i go to my real job (that doesnt lose money). We shall see how today ends. I think the Market waits for the economic data this week... starting with PPI stuff tomorrow. Housing & FOMC Wednesday and finally Thursday Initial Jobless claims. So, by Friday we shall see what happens and in the process get more confused.

Friday, November 14, 2008

My New Computer... Beta...

g-speak overview 1828121108 from john underkoffler on Vimeo.

What Rally? We WILL Head Even Lower...

We just had a warning wednesday that there is no firm bottom. That rally yesterday was just another day for bears to throw more puts/shorts at the market

Here is what i am reading from
TIM: Cautious balance portfolio for rally or crash
FLY: Added to his shorts yesterday but held longs
GIO: BULL Trap... But Caution advised. Follow leading stocks for bull indicatiors
MAC: We needed a follow through on a rally to confirm it true (nope, none, nada)
STOCKBEE: 'Wall Street Lays Another Egg'

So, in the end i was busy elsewhere yesterday doing 'more important things'. I only regret not entering my puts at the close of yesterday.... especially China. DUG looks cheap here, but i think China has more room to fall. OPEC will step in soon.

Anyway, with yesterday and today we find ourselves back at square one. I didnt touch a thing. I remain patient on the fall of China stocks to continue....

Thursday, November 13, 2008

UNBELIEVABLE... Shoulda woulda yet again

Well, i thought today i should have lightened my put position... well i didnt and also failed to place an exit/stop. And yet there is this weird feeling that things will get worse in a few days rather than better.

Tomorrow is the tell tale of things to come. Asia appears to have followed the U.S. lead... So they are trading in the green.

Retail and oil reports tomorrow. But the way the market is. It may go up another 500 points.

Bought HK puts

It was cheap... boy did the market move fast. I paid a few bucks more to get HK dec 7.5 put, since my initial limit order didnt go in earlier (i thought the market would go a little higher thus i would get an even cheaper put). If the FLY is right about this going single digits, this will be good winner. We shall see what tomorrows oil report does to the energy sector.

I am done for today. my FXI puts were never in the red today, altho they were never up huge either. Slow moving yes... but at least profitable. AND most of all manageable.

BORING... FXI hold or lighten...

Well... of all things China props up. Why? Who knows. Asia pretty much was down 5% and it pops here in the U.S. To be honest, the thing didnt move much yesterday either. But a big move DOES awaits us.

I didnt buy on this puts dip. I am content with my positions. My hedge calls tho may be a little out of reach at these levels. Patience is required today.

Oil and retail report tomorrow. Thus, i have no choice but to hold on to my FXI puts, tho i am considering lightening on the position. In the end FXI requires a crash/bull rush to get moving... Its the waiting game again...

(UPDATE: less than 1/2 hour later... bam market down.)

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Leaving $$$ on the table... But on to the next table. And the 'miracle rally'

Well, HK worked well. But there are no spikes or collapses. Just a slow drift downward. So, that being the case, I missed a full 50% gain on HK puts...

However, hopefully the FXI puts will kick in yet again. Its funny how my Dec 25 puts are sandwiched by the 24 & 26 strikes that were much more profitable today... well... maybe not funny... Either way this may be the start of the major China meltdown part deux.

As for energy. Specifically oil, i am cautious what OPEC might do next. At the same time, "I dare them" to cause a spike in oil. That will be my entry on DUG or USO puts.

The Turkey rally it seems will not show its face. I do have a few calls in place if it does happen... Namely AAPL/POT that have been hosed at this point. If these calls go green... I will name this the miracle rally. BUT it looks like i should have had some out there puts as well... too late for that... they are both fliers up AND down...

Holding FXI...and will re-enter HK if it spikes up. FLY was surely point on regarding it going to single digits.


SOLD HK puts... too early, but for a profit

BOUGHT FXI puts... held FXP shares

I think oil will either floor here or cause OPEC to immediately cut production. Either way, that is why i didnt go oil. Though i must say, i missed out on DUG today as I have been the last 3 trading days.

(UPDATE: SOLD FXP. bought more FXI puts.)

Tuesday, November 11, 2008


Well my sell trigger on DUG call was a little too tight, thus limiting my profit. But i will take it.

- HK dec 17.5 puts... i wanted a bear position on energy, but not oil. if oil spikes prior to inventory numbers, i will buy oil puts again.
- FXP shares. options are little too nerve racking. But i believe China heads lower.

HELD: dec OPTION months of these are worthless
- POT dec 140 call
- AAPL dec 150 call
- NOC may'09 22.5 puts
- YHOO apr'09 5 put
- YHOO jan 32.5 call (really old call)
- smattering of AUY shares

SOLD! FXI put... DUG regret... Economy numbers this week.

Well, i set the trigger to sell if it spiked into profitable territory. Unfortunately i missed another leg lower. Still it served me well. There are some points of resistance heading downward, so caution is advisable.

DUG calls (and obviously FXI puts) were on my mind all day yesterday. If oil <60, it would mean it could go to 40. I will wait for the end of the trading day to decide whether i want in or not. I would guess that a DUG OTM call would be a cheap way of catching some momentum related to news this week:

Thurs, Nov13 has jobless claims numbers
Fri, Nov 14: oil, retail...

In scanning a few stocks... it seems SOHU is a nice replacement for anything China (FXI). I will consider them at the close as well.

Watchlist: DUG calls, FXI puts, SOHU puts. (UPDATE: bought HK dec 17.5 puts)

Monday, November 10, 2008


Well, that bail out didnt do much did it... It faded - quickly. I bought Dec 27 put near the end of the day with a stop at 27.65. Or about a buck above todays close/a few cents above the high with a target of about hi 21 or 22.

Everything else confuses me... tomorrow will be telling. Everyone seemed cautious today. But i will benefit either direction taken.


The market has no firm direction today... If anything DUG calls would have been a nice day trade, but i dont do such things with an account that is so meager it would make you laugh.

GM price target... is $0. PLEASE NO BAIL OUT! I say let someone buy them out. They have some of the ugliest cars in the world - they deserve it. They havent figured out that cars need to be attractive too.

Either way, my long calls are set for any GIGANTIC bull market if its heading our way via POT & AAPL are my main hedge (turkey rally or just plain turkey)... tho i my choice of AAPL may have been a mistake since they sometimes trade in a bubble (market up, AAPL down & visa versa).

The different views out there provide no solid direction either way. Just much caution. The views include
- FLY hating on HK while it sits in the green
- Tim trading DUG as it opened down nearly 8%.
- Gio has an IBD watchlist with VIX in mind
- Stockbee mentioned a 21 day range of 'subsided' selling
- MAC had some leanings towards a weak bottom, but he has no trust in that.

So i am sidelined at the moment. The last hour of trading will likely speak for itself. Their are no U.S. Economic until Thursday. ALOT of bad news can come our way quickly (jobless claims, trade balance, retail, oil inventory). Hmm, you would think those reports would signal a crash coming our way. Thus, It might be wise for me to wait til then...

Friday, November 7, 2008


Well, i am not waiting for the weekend to 'hope' it works out... i am just happy than my i lost $35... when initially it was a 50%+ loss on the position... i am happy just to get out...

As for DUG, it is here for the long haul. I have to really think about matters here... if it hangs above the low rest of this day it should be ok.

I am holding the rest of my puts(NOC may'09, YHOO apr'09, MSFT nov, BYD nov) and an old PCX call that didnt strike during that last rally.

I am looking into getting a long call option in POT or AAPL. Thx to Gio & Tim.

(UPDATE: bought Dec 150/140 calls on POT/AAPL if we get a turkey rally...if not they will remain a long hedge on future puts)

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Slow Plunge... "HK must die"?

Well, the DJI isnt dropping off a precipice... but its going into this daily drop thing. a few hundred here, a few hundred there. NOT 700 or a 1000. All this talk of the DJI going to 7000 this year and 4000 next year is FUNDAMENTALLY right. Whether 4000 happens, well i would think thats something for next year.

Ok the FLY is adamant that HK must die. I had that thing profitable on calls last week, but my dumminess if there is such a word failed to set a stop and i lost a profit. BUT believe me when i said i am glad i took the loss. No sense crying over that... so, i went ALL IN on one account with DUG (with the few Pesos i have left in that one trading account).

I have a trip planned in 2009 (ticket prices are only now dropping) I can only wish oil crashed to the 40s, as you see the airlines are in the green today. But knowing how Airlines work, they will start charging for carry on luggage too. The question is whether OPEC will put up with that.

Thus my portfolio includes:
DUG calls: if oil gets <60... there goes the support.
WYNN puts: (Mr. Wynn is a liar), i finally got this green
YHOO puts: (MSFT wont buy Yahoo is $5, Mr. Yang is begging.)
NOC puts: remember, democrats use Defense money elsewhere
BYD puts: worthless
MSFT put: an old put, Nov 15 too short a window.
PCX call: a leftover from the pre-election
AUY: my weak hedge
VISN: why did i bother keeping 2 shares?
YHOO call (a very old call)

When will we go up again? Thats a question that no one knows. Maybe at the earliest right after Turkey Day.

I am off to do a different kind of campaign...

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Obama Positions... and YHOO...

Ok we know one thing... See ya oil... and have fun Defense sector...

I bought
DUG jan 59 call @3.0... did you see the last time this rallied?
NOC may 22.5 puts @.25... a LONG put...
YHOO may 5 put @.22... Google will no longer 'deal' with them.

Held: WYNN Nov 45 put for now...

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Failing to follow ones own plan costs $$$

I said a few days ago that any rally MUST include POT... and guess what... I didnt buy any calls... I mentioned that 25 points ago. ARGH... in terms of options likely a 500% gain.

Shoot me...

SOLD HK calls (late)/Held WYNN puts & PCX calls... Missed MA.

Well, i had to bite the bullet. I sold my loser HK...My not being disciplined in setting stops cost me the gains over the last couple of weeks in one of my accounts.

WYNN sank today but somehow rallied in the end. Tim bought more puts in these guys so that is on my side. But watching how i am unable to get back to the original value based on the stock price i bought it at certainly shows how time decay affects options.

I didnt buy NOC/GD/LMT/BA based on the election... So i will learn if the election matters to those stocks tomorrow. Long term i do think they will get a blasting if Obama gets in.

Mastercard is a monster! Their earnings gets me thinking about making those long earnings list again... sigh... but if i participate in stocks like MA then it would be worth it. It is hard to compare it with V & AXP and the fact that its election day only added to the buying spree attitude.

Monday, November 3, 2008

WYNN... PUTS kick in... Tim is on it... Other notables

It was so obviously a stupid set up. I will hold these Wynn puts.
Tim posted early this morning to short WYNN with a stop @ 70. Casinos were overbought (UPDATE: maybe not overbought, put an earring on a pig, Mr. Wynn was so evasive regarding actual numbers.) because of Wynn, but the economy havent really changed (it still stinks). Anyway, i woke up today and got 20% of my loser back. But the Casinos regardless of where they are will suffer. Wynn beat earnings because of their Chinese Casino, but looking forward, they are the very ones that are facing inflation and now how do you think they will deal with any new Prez? I could care less who the next Prez is as i am non-political. But the next Prez will likely slow the stupid selling of jobs to China.

POSITIONS: HK/PCX calls... WYNN puts... AUY...
I await tomorrow to buy a spec put on one of the defense contractors. If Obama gets in, the put will be like a treasure ticket.

I continue to hold HK because of it being winter... PCX is still there if we have bullish activity after Nov 4th. Gio is using PCX as a hedge. If my PCX call hits it will be a miracle, then again i only spend $30 for it. Coals still have their place, but apparently Obama is not a fan of them.

So, no trades today...

Casinos dipping...
Oil down =Airlines/Shippers up...
RIMM being on fire because of their upcoming Blackberry Storm... They should thank Apple that they didnt release the iPhone on Verizon. Otherwise they would be dead.

Sunday, November 2, 2008

NOV 4th... OK... My long term plan is here...

Well, i totally blew that stupid WYNN put... for one thing they are liars.... the economy stinks in China too.

Anyway, the position that might be of interest is the DEFENSE/MILITARY related puts. History says democrats cut that type of spending. If you look at the charts since October, one would think the election is priced in. But if you look at the charts going back into 2000, you will find that NOC/GD can still head 100% LOWER!. The question is how long?

MAY 2009 puts for NOC & GD are dirt cheap... Anyway, the plan is to leave it in there...

The bear rally that we might be in at this point may not apply to all stocks...

In the end, everyone is waiting for Nov 4 to pick a direction... Although, the street in general is saying the worst is behind us. I think it is just a setup for the worse.

I HATE that WYNN position... i went against my gut feeling... and paid big time...

Friday, October 31, 2008

Bad position day (for me)... WYNN, HK, PCX

Well, looks like the rally has tamed everything illogical to me.

WYNN is UP... on earnings... like what i said yesterday, "I might regret it" in getting in WYNN. Its Macau (in China) property always bails out WYNN or at least paints a rosy picture for analyst. But it remains that we are in a Global recession. I should have got up early to see if i could have got out of this bad position. Now I have to wait. I was thinking it would open sharply up and fade. Nope... I dont like it... Granted this stock will eventually fall, but it may take a while... If Obama wins the Prez, then i see everything going south... especially casinos.

The point is things that would be affected by the recession are up: consumer/retail, hotels, airlines... totally baffles me.

So while WYNN is up....HK/PCX/Energy down...
So while most tech is down... RIMM is solidly up (they will lose to iPhone/Android)

I am stuck and have to wait for the weekend to clear this up.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

SOLD AAPL CALLS/ HELD HK calls (for now)... UPDATE: WYNN puts

Well, Dec 150 calls @.78... bought @.4 yesterday. Sold... Take that profit. I have an uneasy feeling about tomorrow, especially tech. If the market does shoot up, then there is nothing i can do... Just being content with a nice profit. I am on the lookout for other options. I continue to hold HK. Altho i am thinking of moving the time window farther out. But energy should be back just related to winter alone.

I havent posted any earnings list... its gotten too tedious. There are still opportunities there, but i refuse to get in earnings specific positions unless it is a mover (i.e. AAPL or POT). One that i wish i did get in on was EXPE put, they finally admitted slowing travel. I tried to buy puts on them the last time and lost it all... they basically lied regarding their guidance.

Here is a short list for Friday pre-market: CVX, GG, PGN, WY... as you see mostly energy and gold.

I wait patiently for the next opportunity....

UPDATE (2:13 pm EST)
bought WYNN Nov 45 puts @6.3 ... i totally might regret this move. It is basically a technical move. There is a lot of buying action prior to earnings at the close. AND my hint as to how they will do was EXPE earnings report. Although bookings were up, they refused to give any solid guidance. My guess is that more people go online for deals than ever before. The days of calling a Travel Rep are basically over in booking basic travel... You only go to them for packages. Thus this risky move is based on a possible 'fakeout' and WYNN saying just one wrong thing in their conference call. AGAIN, i might totally regret this move as it will negate much of my gain the past 2 weeks or so.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Nobody Knows anything... But i digress... Oops forgot UUP puts

Well forget what i said about the Pro Bloggers... I was giving them TOO MUCH PRAISE. I will say that Gio told me to 'keep that put.' All this talk about bottom from the bloggers i follow had me rid of my most useful hedge: FXI. This totally stinks...

What time to learn something like this... i bought the calls too early and sold my only real hedge.

OK... WHEW... got that rant out of the way...
I see no reason to position for earnings (thus forget listing them... what a waste of time) when days are like this... seriously. the sell off in the final hour (while i was sleeping from nightshift), was totally a joke. 'Chart swing trader' is not convince of any direction at this point and is sitting out until things clearly go one way. He acknowledges we 'could' be in for a follow through, but nothing has signaled an 'all in' attitude yet.

Having said that this is what i see
today bot: AAPL Dec 150 call @.40 ... bid .37 /last .51
today bot: HK Nov 22.5 call @.45 ... bid .25 bid/last .5
yesterday bought PCX Dec 30 @.15 ... bid .20/ last .15

my lone put was FXI jan 50: a nonstandard issue but much action. i lost out a 20%, altho in the end it was a 630% gain. Gio warned me to keep my lone put. I am crying about not making more... why? anyway...

Things dont always go the way we plan and neither appear as bad OR good. Especially in THIS market. A possible follow through is still in the making. The thing is it may take weeks versus days. So minus my NOV calls, the rest will play out the year end rally. I might even add to it with POT calls if we start sharp in the red tomorrow. How did i not trade for POT? Anyway, any rally sign MUST include POT... (and i aint talking drugs)

Lastly i forgot to buy puts on UUP... what a no brainer... anyway, i will get in somehow, just when... i have no idea, but yesterday would have been the best time to do so.


Sold my FXI put... held MSFT/BYD puts.

Bought HK Nov 22.5 call & AAPL Dec 150 call.

If this rally will carry through the year, these strikes will hit. I missed getting in on POT calls this morning... i wasted time selling FXI.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008


PRO blogger caught this rally... the ones i followed all saw it coming, some more doubtful than others, but at least positioned for it to happen. (using Fibs)
-especially FLY (unsure of his methods)
- and Gio (VIX study/IBD) (diwali... it's just a day, but he bought Monday.) He uses IBD as one of his tools

honorable mention: (he didnt buy, but he didnt lose in adding more puts)

i do look at other blogs once in awhile... but these are the tops in performance.

One more thing... GS said that oil would somehow get back to 150 by years end. They said that before the DOW crashed. We may very well see this pan out if a weaker dollar happens from a rate cut and OPEC cuts production again...

BEAR RALLY... Possibilities...

Tim is saying we are in the midst of a rally that will carry us to the end of the year. Well, i have like 2 calls, one bought yesterday and the other YHOO as a spec for a buy out from someone. I would vote for AAPL to eat them up to guard against GOOG since they now compete in the mobile space. My calls have been waiting for some action and i got them cheap. If Tim is right, it will be easier to trade the rest of this year. But i feel the best direction will come when the next PREZ is picked. I could care less who wins...

I think the GDP this thursday might be the last gasp for the bears to cash in. Thus, i held one FXI put. I am wondering if i should have sold it anyway... but i am NOT a trader. So, jumping full head into puts at the sessions end today in not my DNA nor was my buying calls yesterday(shoulda bought an index call instead of PCX).

So, from my experience the following REALLY SPIKE from alot of buying. So, believe me i am scanning the calls on these top perfomers from their respective sectors
tech/telcom: AAPL, RIMM
internet: GOOG, BIDU
ag: MON, POT
energy: PCX, HK, FSLR.

AND if you want to get in on monthly dividends... HTE, PWE, PVX. They are indeed cheap. for example if you bought HTE which pays out about $.25/share. 1000 shares = guaranteed $250 a month. these are the stocks that i am seriously looking into buying.


SOLD FXI @3.7 bummer. the thing closed @ 6.2 yesterday... (bought @.64, wouldve been a 960% gain)...but letting the other ride.
Sold SNE Nov 20 @ 1.4... bummer too it was 2.25 yesterday. still a 100%+ profit (bought @.55)

Got home from nightshift... shoulda set a trigger sell order on both... i wake up and the rally happens while i am sleeping. can you imagine if i didnt set my alarm to wake up early. but man, same mistakes... argh... i have one call option (PCX) but it is too far out of the money at this point. i should have done a hedge with FXI calls.

In any case my gut feeling to sell yesterday was ignored and i paid the price. if anything a hedge would have been a wise thing being that the eventuality is that the market will without doubt head south by weeks end.

I will only post Wednesday aftermarket. With the FED in play tomorrow i saw no point...

Awaiting Consumer Confidence... Fed tomorrow.

This will be the catalyst to whether its a huge rally or a whimper. The global market was up. I have no idea what the FED rate cut will do for the market. Its a no win situation for the FED. Cut rates and devalue the $US or leave rates and have the market continue on its slide. Dont know.

For now my positions are a hold, altho i did wish i sold SNE puts yesterday with the possibility of buying it cheaper today. I will post Wednesdays Premarket earnings today, and if i have time, the aftermarket stuff as well.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Tuesday Aftermarket... enjoy...

Tuesday aftermarket, get in just before the market closes... or dont. FED talks wednesday... i am waiting on UUP puts

RNT: retails/rents computers/furnture,etc
ACE: insurance
ALGN: 'invisalign' braces for teeth
AMX: latin telecom power
APOL: educational services
ARRS: software: broadband, media, internet
BXP: real estate
CTX: residential construction...
CPHD: Scientific & Technical instruments
CBI: deal with liquified gases/oil & tanks
CMP: Ag chemicals
DRIV: Internet software/services
DENN: Dennys restaurants
XRAY: dental equipment supplier
DWA: 'Dreamworks'
FISV: Biz software & services
FLS: manufacturers of pump/flow equipment
FMC: chemicals
JLL: property management
KSU: rail transportation US & Mexico
LNC: life insurance
MTW: farm/construction machinery
MCK: drug wholesales
NLC: water treatment
NAL: regional bank
RFMD: semiconductor
STM: semiconductor/broadline
SKT: REIT retail
ULTI: internet software/services
URI: rental & leasing services
VPRT: on-line services for small business
WRB: insurance property/casualty
WLT: metals/minerals/coal/nat gas
WTS: sells/distributes filtered water

Bought PCX call... stupid MAR/HOT

Bought PCX Dec 30 call @.15... a cold winter pure spec.

MAR/HOT... you know the one i was crying about missing puts on earnings. well, the eventual thing happened. sold off today. that stinks. i had'em in my sights and failed to buy puts on HOT conference call that caused it to go green last week. pitiful on my part...

That's all Volks... Volkswagon lotto...

VOW.DE aka Volkswagon
Porsche is lifting its stake in Volkswagon (the largest car maker in Europe) to 75% by the end of 2009.

The stock ranges from $325 to $625. It is at $520 as i type this.
Anyway, good companies are still companies despite the economy. And the thinking on Porsche part is will they have enough rich people to buy Porsche? So why not get in on the middle income target in Volkswagon.

These things still happen. Congrats to any trader who got in on this...

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Pre-Market Tuesday... US$ & OIL

In advance of Tuesday earnings reports... enjoy

Premarket Tuesday
ACH: the chart reminds me of the tech bubble charts in 2000
AMED: homehealth/hospice... patient care svc.
ASH: chemicals
BMS: consumer goods/packaging...hitting lows
BMRN: biotech...
BYD: casinos/gaming
BP: produces(exploration/refining) & transports energy
CRS: manufactures/fabrication/distribution specialty metals
CEPH: drug producer
CRDN: industrial sector
CHKP: I.T./software
CEO: chinese oil...
CVG: tech/biz software
ELNK: earthlink
ETR: regional utilities/electric
HMC: Honda... Japan has problems. Good cars tho
MSO: Martha Steward
MLM: general bldg materials... bearish
MAS: lumber/wood... bearish
MOLX: electronics (i.e. SIM cards, internal antenna, etc)... toss up
NETL(4:05pm EST): semiconductor
OXY: oil
PC: panasonic
PCX: coal... hey its getting to winter... Jan 30 calls look like a good spec
RCI: Rogers Communication... Canada AT&T
RCL: cruise line... bearish... is it priced in tho?
STD: banks... in spain/europe/latin america
SAP: enterprise/software
SCHN: steel
SEPR: drug manufacturer
SKM: south Korean telecom
SII: oil/gas
SBIB: regional bank
TASR: Taser... remember them when they were a high flyer?
TIN: Paper products
TPP: oil/gas
EL: Estee Lauder... retail/consumer
IPG: international advertising agency
MHP: McGraw Hills...
UA: is this the bottom? they are gaining mindshare in the pros
X: steel
USG: general bldg materials
VLO: former Cramer fav
VSH: diversified electronics
WDR: investment/brokerage regional firm
WHR: 'whirlpool'

there are a ton of Chinese Pink Sheets... ha... i keep holding my FXI puts

- is it time to buy puts in UUP? maybe... i will wait for wednesday if rate cut happens
- USO calls/DUG puts are starting to look good... thx to OPEC spec, but i would wait for the FED on wednesday

Friday, October 24, 2008

Pre/Aftermarket for Monday, Oct 27... and the weaker dollar


-ACI: coals
-BOH: solid bank...
-EXP: gypsum wall & cement... uh no ones buildings
-FPL: produces electricity via oil, air, nuclear
-HPC: chemical company
-HUM: huge health/benefits plan provider in the U.S.
-IBN: large bank in India
-L: Loews
-PENN: gaming properties
-SLG: Reality
-TXRH: restaurant chain
-TDW: offshore supply services/vessels for offshore energy, etc
-VZ: so, how many customers did they lose because of iPhone

-BWLD: toss up
-CAJ: all the puts are in the money
-CF: fertilizers
-CHH: someone bought exactly 3000 Nov 20 puts today (Friday)
-EWBC: a small bank
-EXEL: biotech company near all time low ($3)
-FIS: processing, transaction outsourcing services for financial companies
-PCL: timber/wood... "timber"... bearish
-VRTX: pharmaceutical
-WMS: gaming/casino machines... bearish of course

-i placed a limit order to buy puts on UUP... dollar is worth nothing. my wife and i have some paper yen at home from our wedding 1 1/2 yr ago. We are holding them for an even better exchange.

-wish i held my Nov 65 put... argh...

Thursday, October 23, 2008


Sold Nov 20 put @1.33, Bought Nov 15 put @.25... not likely but it would be a new low. so, its my spec for the day. Grabbed the profit... For now the street expects them to meet and guide low. But if they miss... the stock will be shot to pieces. Just like Vistas compatibility problems.

I am glad i bought SNE when i did. it is up 100% just today. They report next week.

AAPL of course is fading since earnings report... i am considering selling NOV 65 put... set a sell trigger.

As for MAR/HOT that i cried about yesterday. I cant believe that they held up despite the stink report. It actually shot up today. Whats up with that? Anyway, i now have another opportunity to get in.

Outside of JNPR which is already down, i found nothing interesting in terms of put buying today. There is nothing but Chinese companies (pink sheets) that dominate Fridays pre/aftermarket. So i get to take a break.

Monday though is another long list i will look at tonight.

UPDATE: i did sell my lone AAPL put for a 20% gain. if i held just a few minutes longer it would have been better. the MSFT spec i threw out there really was free as i banked on it with the earlier put i sold. casinos sold off today, and i have no idea why. WYNN reports Oct 30. So, i am hoping for a nice rally on Casinos prior to their horrible report. but then again i thought hotels would sink. it was already priced in. SNE is taking a huge hit in Asia as i type this 1030pm HST. They are revising earnings for the year prior to their report Oct 29.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Missed MAR/HOT

Man i was 'stuck' between deciding which strike to go with... the asks got a little out of hand...

I have no choice but wait for tomorrow if i even have a chance. I will use HOT earnings via MAR puts. My order just missed the bell today otherwise. BUT I REALLY REGRET NOT GETTING IN... its one of the few positions with low risk/high reward deals. The thing is i cant figure out for sure if they report before the open as it says on one site and another says 1030 am. Now i have to get up 3:15 am HST to find out

My AAPL put was one of the few times i was able to go against a spike rather than with it. And as much as i like Apple the company and their fundamentals, i couldnt ignore the stock action. This put is up 50% today as a result of the fade.

The overall market has spoken that no stock is immune to macro-eco momentum. A number of companies beat the street handily with good guidance only to have them ripped. The economy stinks and the earnings season is going just as most of us thought... in the red...

Bought AAPL put... Waiting on HOT/MAR...

Well, AAPL gaps up. I buy a put... Nov 65 put @.40... maybe i should have waited for it to get cheaper. but bought the put based on recent history of stocks post earnings and NOT anything to do with AAPL the company. They are crushing the smartphone competition. If only they would open up to T-Mobile and maybe Verizon, then i think total domination in the U.S. mobile space would be in order.

My other puts are in a hold position... FXI, MSFT, SNE. I would like to add HOT to the mix as well. I may have to wait for the closing bell... I wished i sucked it up and bought that Nov 15 put yesterday @.45 rather than limit order for .40

OOPS... missed listing a bunch of earnings for Wednesday. Relisted...

Well, i must have been half asleep when i posted my list of Wednesday Pre/Aftermarket earnings list. Anyway, today we will see if AAPL will have a strong day or just a spike and fade.

HERE IS THE RE-LISTING. granted the its too late for Pre-Market stuff but interesting to watch nonetheless.


AMGN: sector has been good
AMZN: toss up
BIDU: i would rather buy puts on a spike
CDNS: automation for electronics
CMG: too beat up
CRUS: bearish on their sector, but has it bottomed
CGN: oil/gas
FNF: insurance/financial/insurance
IRBT: nice idea... not enough marketing. HA! only puts available
KNX: transports comods.
LSI: semi sector
NE: oil/gas
NTRI: weight loss
NUVA: healthcare
OSIP: pharaceutical
RRC: oil/gas
SKX: shoes/retail
*SLM: education finance. money loser to me.. LOW RISK PUT(jan 5 put)
TER: semi sector
TEX: farm equipment industry
ALL: are you in 'good hands'?
TMK: life insurance

now i remember why i stopped doing this... this was long.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Possible FAKEOUT... Follow Through will confirm this tomorrow

Well, AAPL sold into earnings. Usually it stays flat day of earnings... Today was a little different. The suspicious buying right after the closing bell added to evidence of a 'fake-out'. The big boys scared the Long buyers into selling... I am not the least bit surprised. I also will not be surprised if AAPL went lower in a few days, even if the general market went up on the possible upcoming added bail out plan.

I have no time to mess with this nonsense. Thus, my meager $$$ went elsewhere... MSFT put (hold), SNE put (bought), HOT (attempted buy). I have moved on to the next opportunity. No regrets... just more experience.

Dissecting the numbers for AAPL has been confusing for some. Especially with the way iPhone is being accounted for. But Steve Jobs special visit on their earnings conference said one thing... iPhone (which is Mac OS X) has gone beyond its sibling products. It accounts for nearly 40% of their revenue or $4.6 Billion. They sold 6.9 M 3G iPhones this Q. Can you imagine if they pull of their goal of 40 M iPhones sold next year. Apple is a monster... They would be even bigger if it had not been for exclusive contracts with AT&T and Orange. Competition from Android & Blackberry Storm will keep Apple from getting lax. But the iPhone is way ahead at this point. And just think, the desktop/laptop portion of their biz keeps going at 30% growth YOY. It is no wonder that AAPL gapped up afterhours.

Know this tho, i will eventually buy puts in anticipation of the Longs selling the stock on a spike.


The plan was to buy puts today. But they opened red... I am still hoping that it opens hard to the low end tomorrow so i can buy cheaper calls. I would be surprised as i said in a previous post if they beat the streets GUIDANCE... they did it last year. In any case, like all holiday seasons, i think AAPL will end higher as the year ends. But i will not jump into any puts... maybe this is a fakeout to get calls holders to sell... if it is then its ok. i have other 'options' to get in on. Besides, AAPL will go down in a few days even if the afterhours end with a gap up. So, there is always another opportunity. Just possibly not as good as it stand here. Was looking at the Jan 160 call & Apr 190 look good to me... too late as i look at the clock. I look forward to their report...
In fact looking at the after-hours prior to earnings there is some bottom buying (4:16 pm EST)

Thus, here are my 'better' selections for my circumstances...

There was unusual put option action in SNE. Its in the red today yet one of the puts fell 60%. Well, i went ahead and bought it.

I am trying to get in on a Nov 15 put. Is the economic situation priced in? Maybe. So, i have a limit order. It should remain cheap enough for me to get in tomorrow. if not then i will kick myself again.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Wednesday Pre-Market/After-Market... And OPEC

I realize it is still nowhere near wednesday. but i figured i'll put a heads up for myself and anyone who is still looking at my sad blog. I will post these despite not being very interested in getting in any of them. But these can all move quickly in either direction.

AMZN: the internet version of Walmart. they might surprise this holiday quarter.
GSK: another pharmaceutical giant
KMB: health care supplies. its a tough biz, alot of competition in one hospital i know very well.

FFIV: networking... basically tech/enterprise.
ALL: insurance and some banking. 'are you in good hands?'
VAR: cancer therapy systems. interesting, there seems to be some option call action.

Thursday is much more interesting to me and a much longer list of big names...

hey, i really thought they were going to do this before it got to the 70s. But cutting production was not at all a surprise.

Selective After-market Monday/Pre & Post-Market Tuesday...

These are not necessarily positions to enter as much as tell signs for certain sectors. I only like AAPL (see note) because its predictable. This time of the year is still following history for the most part. coals pick up this time of the year - winter is a couple months away.

AXP: they never seem to beat.
NFLX: solid offerings. but options are all over the place, i dont play that.
TXN: semi. toss up.

AKS: steel.
MMM & DD: industrial. i have no experience in this sector.
CAT: slowing eco not good
COH: retail. pricey bags. but they do cater to the those with more $
FCX: metals/comods. toss up short term.
LXK: they should be a little worried. i would lean bearish.
OXPS: just ok volume. bearish
PFE, SGP: pharmaceutical giant. i got no clue whats up in this sector.
PUK: retirement plans & insurance. toss up
SY: software infrastructure/IT for enterprise & mobile. bearish
UAUA: gas down good. economy spending stinks. toss up.
USB: glad they are still in business. but i would NOT touch banks
YHOO: i got no clue here. is google helping them or not?

*AAPL: tech/retail. Apple is the lowest risk in terms of predictability. the iPhone numbers will be awesome but its all about guidance. i am set to buy a call on Wednesday morning and hope for a gap up. and will might buy a put prior to earnings... if AAPL surprises with an aggressive guidance i will be shocked, altho they did it last year prior to holiday quarter. Either way, this is the same story at Apples every earnings conference. Then again... i might just avoid the whole thing and stick with Microsoft/Sony/hotel puts.
BRCM: toss up
EW: health medical equipment.
ETFC: investment/broker.
VMW: so beat up... wish i paid attention. it was a strong sell. i missed it.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

SOLD!!! RHT put.... Hoping GOOG guides high...

Sold RHT put @ 2.15... missed selling it earlier for 1000% gain after cost. i bought the thing at .20, i may rebuy this put later on a green day in tech. i decided to sell when i noticed it was up 72% today on unusual buying.

otherwise, regarding tech, i am still holding MSFT put til earnings and may add to it at that point. but i think SNE is weaker fundamentally...

cannot wait to see GOOG earnings report... "please guide higher"... make it easy to on my 'lateness' to add more puts... if not well, my existing puts will be on fire again tomorrow.

Nothing is clear cut... sometimes just plain illogical

The few stocks related to earnings that i looked at a few minutes ago are bucking the the gloom and doom of the economy. And some are just priced into the stock... well, thats what some people think anyway...
SHW (you would think would sink with lack of homes to paint) is up nicely
NOK missed badly but guided ok (claiming the lower end will make up for losses going forward)
BTU is up a good percentage on profits... winter is coming a few months.

logical drops COF, MER, C so far... but lets see where they close...

The interesting sector to me has been airlines... despite the slowing economy, oil dropping has shored up their stock. all of them are in the green.

The big cheese that we all await is GOOG (and to a lesser extent IBM). i am just plain tempted to buy a call to spite everyone. the puts are on fire... in fact i wish i did when i woke up this morning. but i rather take my money elsewhere. i.e. puts in hotels, and a few tech related (SNE, DELL.. and possible strangles SNDK, STX, WDC).

So, its GOOG time... let them set the tone for tech... i hope they do meet earnings and guide well. it makes setting up puts for the losers a whole lot easier.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008


Everything dropped from the opening green. And the street was disappointed in Apple's lack of a lower price point. Granted they do have a laptop starting at $999, but that is last years top line 'white' Macbook, not the new aluminum Macbooks. Look at any October put is was about a 1000% gain. Oh well... it seems like the rumors sites have become a nice way to position for these puts.

Apple implied that their new process for creating the new MacBooks will cut production costs. So, their guidance going forward could actually be impacted with this development. The other unknown is how much $$$ Apple is banking with their App Store for the iPhone & iPod touch. One has no choice but to position for a strangle. An easier proposition is what i am already holding (MSFT puts prior to earnings). And DUG calls were indeed a buy opportunity today.

Another missed opportunity... but the nice thing is there are more in the future.


Well, the rumor that was a MacBook that was <$900 was apparently mixed up with a new display monitor that Apple was releasing. But we wont know for sure until the Apple Event today. Why is this important? It means that Apple may not be positioning itself to gain a significant marketshare, rather continue delivering products that are superior to the competition at the same price points. So, its business as usual

The Market may very well be disappointed in this development. I am tempted to buy puts today in AAPL. The thing is Steve might release something that we had no clue about and blow us away in time for the holiday shoppers.

He may even mention the iPhone numbers as well... in any case it is a tough stock/option to trade.

I remain on the sideline... with thoughts that the rally was indeed, a relief rally. Earnings from a varying sectors point to a slowing economy. The Great Depression stuff was definitely overblown. That might have been the signal to buy the bottom on Friday and sell today on the relief.

Monday, October 13, 2008

The BOUNCE!!! Woulda/Coulda/Shoulda... AAPL

It was so expected, but i thought i would be more of a 500-700, not 1000+ pts. Anyway, my puts remain... And are still profitable. They will stay intact with earnings coming out on a few companies. And until the election, i will leave most of them alone. As for the Oil shorts such as DUG... might this be an opportunity to get back in? Its back at levels found just 6 days ago off from mid 80 high on Friday. Who knows... but i have my eye set on something else...

i still remember that thought of AAPL being in the 80s: "This is sooo undervalued." This was my only pick on the Long side, which i didnt execute. I was out doing 'volunteer' work this past week and didnt do a thing about my portfolio. I surely should have bought this thing under 90. The calls were so dirt cheap... Oh well... I was waiting for earnings next week anyway, but tomorrows MacBook event might send these calls out of my reach...

Going back to work today after a nice break for some 'more important things'. So, all is well...

Friday, October 10, 2008

APPL Power... Saves NASDAQ...

Well, like what i said in a previous post, the buyers are lining up for QUALITY STOCKS... and the combination of hype regarding new MacBooks at lower price points bodes well for Apple's stock. It shows that the company is prepared to deal with the bad times in the near future if not at present. But wow... dont you wish you bought AAPL when it was 82+ just a few days ago?

I am looking closer at my puts. I am unsure if the Market has actually touched bottom. AAPL lives in its own space at times related to the general market or even the rest of tech (everything else can go green and AAPL goes red, today was the opposite). It still has a growth story. Any other stocks out there that have similar potential as AAPL are hard to find. So, fill me in if you hear of them. Anyway, i await their earnings Oct 21. At that time i will decide what to do.

More Red (2 hr 20 min to closing bell). AAPL holding its own on quality or hyped MacBooks

Still falling. Someone noted we needed 5 more days of triple digit falls to bottom out. I think it might take until the election to bottom out myself IMHO. Well, my puts are still on fire... i wonder how bad my 401K/403b are... Anyway, its not like i will see any of this money any time soon.

MacBook/MacBook Pro announcement this coming tuesday is bolstering the stock. It seems their is somewhat of a flight to quality as well. The rich can still afford to buy Apple goods. And with the prospect of Apple offering an initial MacBook price point of $800 is strategically the correct move. They actually announced that margins will be lowered with the next product cycle. But my guestimate is that components will actually get cheaper out of oversupply and the slowing economy in general. So, in the whole big picture of things... Apple is a money making machine. Outside of the iPod/MP3 space, they are nowhere near in saturating the worldwide PC/Laptop/Smartphone space. There is a distinct shift happening. Apple itself looks stable, but i still venture to say that their huge numbers in Laptop/iPhone sales will not prevent the stock from taking a hit related to their usual earnings guidance (or 'underguidance')...

I have posted selected stock listings again on the main screen... this past week has been more of shooting fish in barrel for the bears, while bulls are nowhere to be found except in the handful of quality stocks with incredible growth prospects against the slowing economy (i.e. AAPL).

Thursday, October 9, 2008


As unfortunate as the market is directional wise. My sticking to my guns (wishing i added more) on puts has surprised me again. My lowly acct has doubled in a matter of 4 days. And i only performed 2 trades. Sold a chunk of VISN & bought MSFT put... and earnings has even gotten here yet. That is where i thought the DOW would near 8500. Never would i thought to have seen this coming.

So, i was surprised to find that not doing anything has doubled my portfolio. It is scary to figure out how much lower this market is going to go down. Because no firm bottom has been reached. I think a bounce back of course is in order tomorrow. But what a surprise to see how much panic is on the Street.

Specific stocks i have kept my eye on...
FXI (puts) China has spent so much on their infrastructure and the Olympics. They have inflation problems. My old puts are on fire for now. I think it would be prudent to sell this thing off prior to Nov 4 election.
AAPL (watch) has held steady. Altho it is probably a day-traders dream (and nightmare). They have MacBook buzz coming around and a some numbers on iPhone that will blow everyone away
RIMM (watch) held steady, but quality issues are turning up with their new Blackberry Storm, bad time to mess up
MSFT (puts) has already picked a direction from its last earnings. Things arent getting any better.
RHT (puts) is back down again. Fundamentals stink. Redistribution of Linux hasnt guaranteed $. Vista has actually pushed Windows-based coorporations into companies like Red Hat. So, we shall see what MSFT says about the matter.
AUY (stock)what a waste. i should have sold this thing and held it to cash to participate in more puts.
VISN (2 shares ha!) so much for a solid future, Asia has joined the U.S. crisis.

And so as it goes... i got to do nothing related to making money today (its all about being out in 'field'), and i still made money. cool deal. and to top it off someone treated my wife and i to lunch yesterday and today...

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Emergency Rate Cut. Sorry Ben, shoulda announced this right after your lecture (RIMM news too)

Stocks will stabilize with this news, but the thing is just another band-aid. The earnings reports coming out show how bad the economy will be in the months or years to come. A true Bear Market has been in place for awhile.

They finally released their touchscreen phone called Blackberry Storm. They are advertising it as a phone that will take the world by 'Storm', lame, but i get the point. It surely is better than those Windows Sienfeld commercials. The thing that stinks is that its exclusively with Verizon. So its good for the VZ crowd. I have T-Mobile and will soon be stuck with Android as my only 'touchscreen' option. Competition is indeed good, and they have a built in landscape mode for SMS/Email that Apple should quickly integrate, now that RIMM is 'pushing Apples buttons' (pun intended). The Blackberry Storm is noticably fatter than the iPhone and has nowhere near the 3rd party software (or developer community) that is behind the App Store. Still, at least they are not giving up. This should indeed hold down the fort for RIMM.

The question is will Apple exercise its 'Multitouch' patents? If they do, look out... They already learned a hard lesson with MSFT using a clause in a contract that allowed them to produce Windows. So, is Apple able to exercise their intellectual property, when there were other Touchscreens prior to them releasing an iPhone? We shall see.

In either case RIMM at least stays respectable. Releasing 'Storm' will save their stock (and VZ) in the short-term going forward. The iPhone is just in a different class of smartphones. Its an actual hand computer running Mac OS X. And it shows... but consumers often want what the need and have no desire to have all the options afforded them via the iPhone. You can bet that the storm will be given the death name 'iPhone-killer'. RIMMs end to end services have proved for the most part more reliable (despite a few system failures this year) than AT&T. Interesting Smartphone battles, now that Apple has some competition.

Monday, October 6, 2008


Less than 10K!!! Tim must be dancing in the streets if not on a bull...I had to post today... My option positions are so tiny... but they are banking 100%+ (puts in RHT, MSFT, FXI. my lone stock which i forgot to sell was AUY. and so GLD as a choice over AUY a month ago would have been better. but hey... no sense crying over that. i am already lost for the year.

As for Apple. They seem to have sold their 10M iPhone wayyyy ahead of expectation (10M in 2008 was the stated goal). And so with their earnings announcement soon (i think Apple has announced plans to conduct a conference call to discuss financial results of its fourth fiscal quarter on Tuesday, October 21, 2008 at 2pm PT/5pm ET.). it will be interesting to watch... for one thing no one expected Apple to have possibly sold 7M this Q (their 4th Q). The high estimate was 5M. iPhone is the #1 Smartphone in the U.S. However, the whole Macro/Micro-eco has surely made AAPL dirt cheap as it actually dipped to 87 today... and rallied strong to finish green today...

Patience is necessary... my plan short term... keep all my puts (RHT, MSFT, FXI) and hedge with AAPL calls around earnings. The plan is buy a call and put prior to earnings... after the last earnings, where AAPL gave poor guidance, the stock opened down huge only to be barely in the red. So, a put prior to earnings and buying a call at the open would have netted 500% or in one case .01 option turned into 1.0... in real money $1 to $100. But who knows... AAPL has announced good guidance for 1Q last year. Thus, having one call prior to earnings could work out as well. We'll see what is going on at the time... it will be a decision made based on varying factors.

And the newest MacBooks apparently are rumored to have a air craft quality aluminum production process that in the PC world is totally revolutionary. In which they take a block of aluminum and mold it into a laptop - interesting, but still a rumor. What we do know is what the CFO stated at last Q earnings: 'Apple's competitors won't be able to match' for some time to come.' hmm. can't wait. my wife needs to dump her piece of junk Dell. btw, all windows based PCs not investing in Linux are doomed. Ironically, Macs are the fastest machines to run Windows... who woulda thunk it...

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Technical Bounce

Perfect... if anything I wished i waited to get in on my lone MSFT put today. The market is crazy. To illustrate, GOOG alone had a 50 pt swing. Then afterhours 90? Logic prevailed with AAPL, altho i think the stock will return lower eventually. Fundamentally sound companies will have some fight, but the timing of entry is terrible. They have awesome products coming online, the question is will the rich and more affluent keep spending. Their secret cash cow is the APP store.

Too many things going on. Keep paying your debts... and benefit from cheaper stocks (and homes) in the near future.

Monday, September 29, 2008


My previous post i said i sold a couple puts that recovered most of the cost. it is set to expire soon... so, i took what i could and sold.

The eco stinks. MSFT reports... Vista stinks as it is actually helping Apple sell Macs, XBOX not as good as Wii, iPhone/Blackberrys/future Andriod better than WinCE/Mobile. What else is there? Hmm. The CEO is an idiot and totally has no clue that he is costing his company. They bailed out of there own Ads, $300 million for that thing with Seinfeld.

Anyway, MSFT NOV 20 put. They report in late october. I finally sold my loser VISN.

Wow... my old PUTS are green... Housecleaning

Well, the market stinks for the bulls. but the long-term investor has to be smiling. Quality companies are dirt cheap. The puts that have been losers for have turned green. (about time). I only sold MOT Oct 7 puts. I have no idea when they report earnings, but you can be sure i am all in on that on the bear side. Tho RIMM & AAPL are getting whacked at this point, they along with NOK may very well make MOT worthless on the wireless side.

Man, is APPL cheap. Their forward P/E is now obscenely ridiculous. We can thank Morgan Stanley. The govt should check out MS if they are messing with the market. I mean, isnt it obvious? This just shows me that i should consider buying LEAP calls. By 2011, Apple may very well have a worldwide mobile phone market share of 20%, you heard it hear first. Thats if this world continues (if you know what i mean)

Someone asked if they should buy GLD instead of my pick AUY. Well, i guess the answer is yes.

With all the red in the market... this is a GOOD thing. This should have happened months ago. Like when my portfolio was basically ALL puts. The FED shouldnt have done all this dumb stuff to 'ease' something that required a radical changes. This is an eventuality that had to take place. And thus, i have found no reason to be fully vested in this market. Guys like Tim are banking HUGE coin.

Like what i keep saying... Pay off your debts, because all the $US will one day be frozen. No more loans... so be responsible, dont further your debt!!!

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Like We didnt see this coming... RIMM disappoints, Wall St panics

Well, the proof is out there that RIMM is losing market share to iPhone, but they are now investing on expanding with the flip-pearl. i am not sure how this will turn out, it seems that the trend is toward ʻsliderʻ phones instead with huge screens. but still, at least they were smart enough to create a pearl for a specific segment. So, they are doing something about losing ground to Apple

Wall Street is in panic mode... RIMM missed by a penny!!! and at the time of this post, is down almost 20% in aftermarket trading. A nice contrarian move may be in place here. cheap calls are now to be found. and any good news coming in a few days can make those calls go green, tho not necessarily in the money. so, a slight gap up is likely after an initial sell-off in the morning. My guesstimate is about no longer than 1/2 hour into tomorrows session that RIMM will build a floor and buyers come back in (barring any bad news).

But hey my theory is easy to make with no since i am not ʻactivelyʻ trading... but i am still observing... like what i said in my last post. Pay off your debts. Dont owe anyone anything. And no matter what you might miss in the market, at least you know you are winning by eliminating the bills. In the grand scheme of things you end up with more $$$, since you are losing less.

So, beware... things will continue choppy until the next Prez gets elected. no one knows what to do... the govt is just as confused as anyone else. not good... so, again... pay off your debts.

The rumored laptops look sweet. and the touchpads look much like the touchscreen on the iPhone/iPod Touch. No other Laptop has these abiity. very interesting... they are also rumored to have a nice starting price as well. cheaper than in the past to address the slowing economy. they are basically killing the competition in the U.S.

And they open another Apple store in Hawaii. Waikiki. I have no time to join in the festivities. I like my PowerBook, but I aint no stand in line fanatic. For those of you who do... maybe you can win a free iPhone/iPod/Mac... so maybe it is worth it. but its not for me.