Sunday, December 28, 2008


I am not the bit excited about the market. Its boring to tell you the truth...

But my last blog prior to taking a "vacay" has worked out thus far. I am surprised at how oil just cant get any momentum going.

But my FAZ position and RIMM Jan 30 puts are so far plus... I really have no reason to change a thing. I will be watching others (particularly the pro dudes) that trade as bigger events pop up. Especially, just before and after Obama is inaugurated. I suspect the Market will react with volatility with every decision he makes...

So, if you thought it was hard to trade 2008... Well, 2009 doesnt get any easier. With that see you in 2009...

Friday, December 19, 2008

FOOLS (BLACK) GOLD? FAZ & RIMM puts again...

I sold my stupid DXO... in other words, DXO will no doubt go up Monday. *sigh* So, thank me later. Found out that it is basically based on an index related to 2009 CL contracts... in the end, the auto bail out didnt do anything for oil, and OPEC cuts havent budged it much either. I will pay attention if oil does bottom out. We shall see how desperate OPEC gets and if the economy can even afford oil when people cant eat and have to pay off their newly refinanced homes.

Like a FOOL, i went for Jan 30 puts in RIMM. The thing is, they are expanding to the consumer space... where there is ALOT more competition. And for maybe 50% that have tried the Storm - myself included... think its just not there yet. I will say i still like their other phones. But that's just my opinion.

I also was up when i saw FAZ @ 36+. But i didnt pull the trigger. Being that Mr. Bush did his thing... Thus I kept thinking this would tank to the 52 wk low... In the end i got it at 38 and change and will let it pick up steam for next year.

Otherwise, my now smaller portfolios are 30% cash. Just waiting for some incredible advice... maybe KIM or other REIT commercial related properties are the way to go (Props to Fly). And IF there is a long out there, it is solar (Obama-backed!). In the end it will be hard to kick the bear around past January when reality sets in.

I am off to start a vacation... somewhere...

Obey the VIX.X

Well... the VIX bounced off a low - bearish - if not, avoid going long.

Anyway, being that i have puts on RIMM, i hope its market wide...

DXO i still hate you... the views out there include thoughts that oil is near its bottom, but that it may be months if not YEARS for oil to get back. But remember, Obama is not into the black gold.

Well, i will unfortunately have to get up early to sell the RIMM puts for anything greater than $0.

Thursday, December 18, 2008


Aright, i am now totally annoyed at my DXO. I have no doubt that OPEC will indeed cut production even more... but its taking up $$$ that could go elsewhere.

i bought RIMM Dec 30 puts today. shoulda bought them yesterday, but i just forgot about it. in any case RIMM made there Q estimates and guided "ok" for the next Q.

There Blackberry Storm is helping them and cursing them at the same time. I havent heard so many people wanting to return a phone at such a high 50%... even after the last update. And yet that piece of news didnt make it to the traders desks. I will indeed buy puts again on RIMM in the future. But for now at least i took the risk, which i guess was already priced in.

FAZ would have been the perfect buy for me today... or yesterday actually, which someone in fact did as i follow a bunch of traders. i should just listen to these dudes... and skip my reasoning some times.

Well, options expiration tomorrow means SELL SELL SELL... that will be the only way i come out of this last RIMM position with with a minimized loss.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

SOLD FAZ/HELD DXO on Monday... Wassup for Tuesday

Well, i was able to watch the (digital) tape and saw FAZ bouncing back and forth 52 to 53. Sold it at $51.87...

I figured there would be some action by OPEC that would be reason enough to hold DXO. Even though it would have been a nice sell at the open and buy back at the close kind of day.

The Fed
They will likely cut rates... further depreciating the dollar and (possibly)boasting oil prices again.

I was right to have my eye on UUP puts/UDN calls... and yet i forgot about entering those positions... another day more opportunities. we shall see...

Friday, December 12, 2008

Missed the spike @ the open...

Today however, would have been a good way to trade out of FAZ and get right back in next week...

Man with a spike like that i would have sold FAZ in a heartbeat... and yet living here in Hawaii i am knocked out... 4 am hasnt been kind to me in the past. If anything i would wake up and go right back to sleep.... but i have missed hmm 4 trades in the last month that would have banked me huge... i refuse to relate them as i dont need any reminders. goes to show that this isnt easy trading... and even those i turn to as my gauge are caught by surprise, and yet they have enough hedges to get through volatile days.

DXO tho has nowhere to go but up... it seems that eventually the auto suckers will get their bail out money... they are just buying time until mr. obama gets in...

thus, the ideal trade for me today was to sell FAZ at the open and buy GM (yes they make some ugly cars) but hey they ended higher today 25%... pocket change for most of you, but its all about survival with my portfolio at this point.

I am just trying to keep things in check so as to participate for next years bear storm...

Will be back monday... hope a spike happens somewhere... and i am awake for it...

Set It and Not Forget It

Well, there seems to be some agreement & deviation among opinions of my gauge
- some say buy oil here, others say no
- some have taken profits on shorts or added long hedges

In either case, it would have been good for me to sell my FAZ (22% profit) at the open and reenter them today. Ah, the joys of living in Hawaii... not Wall Street friendly at all.

In any case, long FAZ was never a bad idea.
Will find out if OPEC helps my DXO next week.

Otherwise, i am 'stuck' right here...
btw, its weird to see FXP hold its own with the market slightly up...

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Messed Up again... late DXO... likely sell tomorrow and hold a few for a long hedge.

Well, i finally get a chance to catch up on what my trader gauge in the form of iBC, TIM, MAC


But what can i do, I had more important things to tend to...

So, my DXO position according to the 'Gauge' is likely messed up... And my position if FAZ will only make up for loses in DXO. At least my lame FXP call will likely come to life once more...

OH, and dont forget to check out UUP, UDN, come to think of it I was looking at FXE (Euro) awhile back, and that would have been a better position than DXO.

Bear days are here again... but we shall see how things end in 2008. Any Auto Bail out settlement will bring the bulls back out to play (which i want to years end... then we can smack the market in 2009)

Switched SKF to FAZ... Bought DXO... What else?

FAZ 3x bear was just a matter of time when it was going to make a move. The fact is it was cheaper to get in and the potential going forward is a 52 wk high of 160s were reasons to switch from SKF.

I did buy 200 DXO. My feeling here is that oil will have to go up from here. Why? OPEC coupled with the devaluating of the U.S.$ will not make oil any cheaper (not to mention the general media talking about oil to $25, a weird but useful signal to go contrarian). And then we will have a double whammy on our hands. Unemployment AND Higher fuel costs... my 2nd block of 100 shares was NOT suppose to go in. Rather i was looking at adding to FAZ... oh well... I will unload my 2nd block on any hints that oil goes below $40...

oil news is ahead of us, so it might have been a bad time to get in on DXO... otherwise my switching from SKF to FAZ just when FAZ broke above $44.

So, in the real world the advice to everyone should be to get out of your debts... NOW... the govt wont be able to take care of you - so save for yourself.

btw, i am looking at UDN calls or UUP puts... i.e. shorting the dollar. Do you honestly see the dollar getting fixed any time soon?

Wednesday, December 10, 2008


I woke up just 2 minutes to the market closing... Too groggy from nightshift. Wanted to get in a call somewhere today or buy oil. Didnt happen...
My FXP Jan call continues to get ripped to shreds... while SKF holds its own, with thoughts of switching to FAZ.

Its a market where general picks have no place. If i had a chance tho, i would buy FXP calls here... It goes to show that you can let the market come to you rather than the opposite.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Likely Switch SKF TO FAZ

The fact that Tim highlighted FAZ being at current levels is very intriguing. I mean if it turns out truly as 3x bear versus 2x... Then FAZ has the potential to be a HUGE winner, but it has yet to attract as many traders as SKF. Thus, I will switch out one of my accounts from SKF to FAZ and hold it well into 2009...

As to if this rally continues... it still can. So, I refuse to be baited back to options for awhile. My options just lose value over time with the choppiness.

Vigilence Required

I am in no way celebrating the market starting down. For all I know this is a dip in the eyes of the bulls. The only thing that matters is the last hour of trading. So, again I am 'stuck' with my positions.

I will hold on to SKF as a true long into next year. And will add call options if i obtain more capital for the big bear awaiting in 2009

Monday, December 8, 2008


I totally am rooting for RIMM to sprint all the way to earnings. why? because the Blackberry storm will NOT save RIMM. I like my Pearl and will likely get the clam shell version of it soon... But in its battle against iPhone, it is no match and with NOKIA N97 waiting to come state side, RIMM will be in for a rude awakening come earnings day. Besides, they already revealed that they had to cut guidance for the current Q (or was it year). So, they are basically showing all their cards.

Incidentally, RIMM reports on options expiration week... PERFECT STORM... and I am not talking BlackBerry Storm... Perfect Storm to put.


The good news... at least i wasnt stuck going long on SKF calls.

Bad news:
I sold my lone SKF put, when i shouldve added as a hedge.
-It would have easily enveloped my loss.
I should have sold FXP call yesterday and ate the loss
- Now this loss is bigger and i am exposed to the short side
- I have no hedge!!!

Simply put, i am not in a position to 'trade' or at least daytrade. i should have waited for the close to enter a position. but at the same time SKF stock was a smart move in terms of avoiding options... the risks/volatility are still there, but at a more manageable pace.


Well, i had enough of options. It was my fault to begin with in not setting a stop on my FXP calls a couple days back. And I paid for it.

Its time to finally LEARN how to take advantage of my resources: GIO, FLY, TIM, CHART_ADD during the market.

I am just not in a position to deal with volatility... cant keep my eyes on the screen while i have other stuff to do.

Sunday, December 7, 2008

Obama Speaks...How will Wall Street react?

Obama plainly put it straight. '...economy will worsen..."

And there you go. Monday will be another day where the bulls will have to beware yet again...

I will not add to my position unless we have a huge gap up or down... Oil is up for the time being. It seems that OPEC will cut production... in a huge way. So, my eye is on that as well.

In the end... Long-term Short on the market... short-term bull on oil... but i need a good entry... i am stuck again with my FXP call, but a SKF put...

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Year End Rally? Oil comeback... Old calls

Well it seems as though we may get that year end rally (which i want).

It looks like DIG/USO calls and Airline puts are the way to position for the imminent production cuts that OPEC is saying will be 'severe'... Well, that wouldnt be cool for those of us who want cheaper flights. And expect your gas to spike as a result as well. Buy your gas before Dec 19.

Old Calls
my AAPL, POT, YHOO calls are too far out to get any of this bullish action. If they did somehow hit green i would guess the DJI would be back in the 10K range... doubt it.

Will see what is in store come Monday... i am still >75% cash... if we continue going green (without an opening gap) i will consider adding calls. Again DIG/USO calls might be the way to go.

Friday, December 5, 2008


We have been warned (by the charts) that we ARE going lower... This see-sawing trend is LOWER. The thing is, it just might not end that way today... we have to wait til after the weekend for that to happen - let people think about how bad things are. But DOW back to 7k is a matter of when not if. And I think we go <6k to celebrate the new year.

either way you look at it > 500k jobs lost is never a good thing. so, i hold right here with two main positions
FXP Jan 100 call... yes i do think it will be that bad
SKF Dec 80 put... safety if a miracle rally breaks loose.

I need cash to wait out any spike... being how i missed out on 2 big moves while i held that crazy HTX. The thought that HTX would simplify things was a mirage.

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Bought FXP... HTX error/loss... AND SKF puts

BOUGHT one FXP Jan 100 call...
BOUGHT one SKF Dec 80 put... to cover my butt.

HTX error..
Pluuueeez this was such a useless trade. A loss... The options sold in my account were not actually mine (because of the option symbol change related to the dividend)... How is that for advertising Ameritrade. They of course didnt charge me for the error made, but they did have to fix it for their books. The options in the end are worthless.

So to rub salt in my wound, my funds were not available to add another position today... thx *sarcastic* ameritrade.
And the thing is it cost me last week on the volatility: losing out on calls on Ultrashorts (FXP/SKF) and after shorting/putting the Ultrashort options. ARGH!!!

Anyway, my tax guy will have fun figuring that one out. A stock bought about 20... dividend payed 13.55... stock sold $4.xx. So, it was a loss. But then again its a dividend gain (at least i am only taxed 15% on that)

So tomorrow is a HUGE day for the bears. consumer credit, unemployment numbers, nonfarm payrolls... OUCH! Why was I hesitant to to load up my shorts? Anyway, nothing is for sure... but i am bracketing FXP/SKF...

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

HTX experiment failure UPDATE: success?

Well, my understanding of how options work with a dividend was lacking. It seems at this point that my options are also worthless.

I still await a payout. And I ended up losing. It seems that I will get paid the $13.55 as the stock itself dropped like a rock in value from 17.48 to about $4. Note that i bought the stock @19.20's... so in essence pre-market I lost 8%. Again not to mention the basically worthless non-standard options.

The irony of the whole deal is that i thought this was a more stable way to approach the volatility.

I will not be participating in any more dividends of this sort (except maybe oil/energy trust funds that pay out monthly without a hit to the stock)

This totally kept me from participating in the recent swings. I didnt have an entire understanding of how this works. I did in the past own Palm puts prior to a dividend. I just didnt recall how that worked out. I didnt bother owning the stock, just the options puts, which in the end netted a loss.

I probably will hold on to the stock and see where it goes.
I still await my pay out. If I dont get it... I am totally messed up...

My five Dec 12.5 puts did kick in. If anything I should have bought alot more of them. basically spent $40... including costs. Each sold today @1.25. The January Put however didnt do a thing.

Another note. My scottrade acct is a discount broker. So, until HTX pays them out, i DO NOT get a cent of the divident in my account. A Scottrade rep told me it might be a FEW days because it is a Chinese company... (Hmmm more reason to short China later). Anyway, My full-service broker, Ameritrade acct paid out from their funds.

Learned much today. Confusion at first, but at least I have a profit

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Watchlist Ideas FROM OTHERS

TIM: Watch the Euro
- my watch on it FXE is about 52 wk low. All time low 118.
- He has also done well with DIG stock/calls

MAC: AXYS... reverse head and shoulders

FLY: short mostly China (i whole-heartedly agree, see my previous Asian soccer post) long a few 'things', look out for energy to get higher

GIO: watch the VIX... be alert to another bear day

I do like all these suggestions. I especially cant wait to cash out my dividend tomorrow and wait for another huge VIX reversal. The long term view of FXE is a possibility. I am looking at next years calls with a strike at the high of 160.

HTX ex-dividend pay out: Dec 3rd.

Well, i have to wait another day. And i feel that today will be a huge day for bears if we gap up today at the open. Either way, i think we sell off at the closing of the day.

Of course, I hope for a rally tomorrow. So as to enter new puts.

This week of eco news has everything leaning for the bears. I am yet stuck another day with HTX until the pay out.

Monday, December 1, 2008

Sold AZK...Payout Awaits... Rally Hopes Diminish... One Long Idea

I basically broke even or loss a little. But i knew the crash was coming today... :(

Payout HTX
Ok. So, tomorrow i better be seeing my accounts with a fresh batch of dividend cash. From there i will wait for any spike that comes our way OR panic buying of any sort.

Like i said in a post a couple days ago, I hoped for a rally at least until the payout. Didnt happen. Thanks Mr. B. Anytime the FED talks we can expect this kind of reception.

He likes UNG (natural gas), which makes much sense this time of the year. If anything it might be in its own bubble if it turns out to be a cold winter. If that happens, I sure hope people out there are ready to wear their heavy coats indoors (being that they have to save their money to pay off their debt or mortgages). But for now History says its time for Natural Gas to make its move

One more thought... OIL cracks <50 at the time of this post.
I think the bears are in for a big day tomorrow... Here is hoping (or wishing) for a gap up so as to fade and a closing crash tomorrow. Hopefully my funds will be available to participate, as i couldnt do so today.

So, that is officially two huge swings that I missed, options expiration Friday last week (huge rally) and today double inverse calls. Those were likely better pay outs than the HTX thing, but i cant look back. In the end I had less anxiety because of the approach taken.

What Will Happen To The Asian Markets? OH BTW, Notice Oil Dipping Again.

Our pals in the orient, like most of the world will try to foresee things... (short or long term)... and miss badly. Frustrating yes, but entertaining if you are just watching.

At the time of this post. Oil is down a few bucks. That possible DUG call trade in a previous post is building merit. Either way my money remains 'stuck' in HTX until the pay out Dec 2nd.

This week looks like a bearish kind of week...