Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Consumer confidence... propanganda'd up...

Consumers are finding confidence in continuing to spend. Granted it seems finally common sense has entered the picture.

Yet we see these incredible deals when it comes to starting a new credit card...

Look this economy is not in reality getting better. Its true that the bear crashes of the last year and half or so were over-reaction, but reflect the fact that there are tons of people out there with no jobs... homeless... collecting from a govt that is broke.

In Hawaii, 1 of 11... collect food stamps... WHAT? yes 1 of every 11 persons supposedly collect food stamps in Hawaii. That is just another example where the govt is already trying to increase taxes to make up for lost income... but the conundrum(spelling?) is that citizens are using more govt resources than ever before. Somethings gotta give.

Now its not like i like seeing a bunch of homeless/jobless people around. There are people who lost pretty well paying jobs and have 3 kids, a mortgage and car payments.

In the end.. I continue to keep my life simple... and pay of debt as quickly as i can without cutting into having a 'normal' life.

DUG/FXP are still on the radar. it briefly played with trying to fall below 15 today. Nope... The oil rally may at the very least be sputtering. I have a few $ to get some long calls on DUG. S&P may very well get to 1300... but beyond that? i really doubt it. So, i am happy for the slow crawl on this rally. just to allow me more time to be a fool and jump back in the market with the few $.

Friday, August 21, 2009


Another day... another bear rally... another "we are close to getting out of the recession" speech...

well, i officially will have another loan paid off before months end.

DUG as i have been pushing just dipped below 16. I wish i had $ to buy some... but hey i am in no rush.

A buddy of mine is busy making coin... follow him at ibankcoin.com/gioblog.

I have neither the discipline nor the attention span to keep up with him.

Anyway, my wife found a few old papers... among them my original purchase of AAPL @20.14 sometime in 1998. of course my history of trying to make up for the fact that i didnt understand how much more $ i could have made from 2004 to Jan 2006 using options. Thus, i sold off my precious shares to enter option calls instead. And... there was my ultimate failure. Entering a trade(s) that i didnt fully understand. Some of this was Greed(who wouldnt want to semi-retirement) and some was just plain finding a fast way to pay off a few loans after getting married, her school loans and my dumb credit loan i thought i could use to leverage a trade. At least the ring/wedding/honeymoon were all paid off this year.

In the end, i still made thousands... and lost them as well. And as this market has taught me... there really is no rush to get back in until i clear up whatever loans we have. that right there will save me a hundred or so alone per month. So, there you go. Preservation...

And I still believe we have another bear window nearing (thus my love for DUG/FXP etc). You cant convince me that unemployment going forward will improve... (of course they could if these people would humble themselves and take lower paying jobs).

This was a long-winded blog. figured i get it all out. hey maybe DUG can get under $15 (52 wk low was $15)! Again if i only had free capital. The one bull stock? *sigh* AAPL. The one bull sector? alternative energy (one day this Obama friendly sector will be back... for now oil still rules)

Wednesday, August 19, 2009


Well, u know i been pushing DUG. But the entry i was originally looking for is <16.

As you see in my last post... i thought maybe 16 was the entry... Maybe it still is? For me, i thought with Asia getting whacked - that DUG would have been sky high (sans the oil surprise supply report). The funny thing is what that report tells me is that Americans are still in denial...

No longer is there panic, but just the mentality that - o.k. if cash for clunkers, printing $US AND bail outs(now via private sector) are continuing... why should i worry.

So, anyway... while i sit back and pay off whatever debts that my wife and i have, i am totally amused how this Market is messing with the minds of bunch of traders.

Again... i am in no rush... this pinball market will still be there when i am ready.

Enjoy the see-saw...
Of course for those of you benefiting from playing both sides, you should be up mightily from the last few days alone.

Monday, August 17, 2009

Wish you bought DUG huh... or any short...

Well, you can think of this a couple ways regarding oil... being that it is seasonal. However, you will have to pay close attention to those hurricanes.

DUG was a buy @$16-ish

Now those monthly oil/energy trusts look mighty cheap... AAV, HTE, etc... i am not sure how much longer they can make the monthly payouts, but if you wanted a 1st entry... you got it today.

I just see some see-sawing for now. But WE ALL KNOW, that the bottom will fall out from under us again... when? who knows. i am just plugging along paying off debt.

The Market will always be there... and so will the opportunities. But if i want a guaranteed way of making $$$$... well, i best start with cutting ALL loses... no more paying loan interests... a few hundred in cutting costs goes a long way in this economy. And why not make my credit score look better. After all, i may need another loan in the future... not what i want necessarily - just being ready it comes.


Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Well... The Wait Continues...

I really dont mind waiting being that i have no free $$$$ to invest. I am busy paying off debt as fast as i can... without working too much at my stressful REAL job.

In any case, i am already wanting to get off the rock again... Why? Well, my 2 1/2 days in Paris wasn't very relaxing - my wife and i were rushing from Musuem to landmark and at times didn't have as much time to enjoy dinner. Either way, Paris is possibe some time next year. I hope the next crash happens (sorry 401K holders), and that way cheap air fares, hotels at 50% off and a better exchange rate.

My wife thinks i should have gotten enough of Europe - she wants me to experience Asia. Speaking of which... i do think they (China that is), is due for some trouble.

It just feels like the unemployment really hasnt hit this country yet. These banks reporting profits are basically reporting whatever little $ they are making after the U.S. tax payer has been paying off THEIR bills.

The charts show we still have some gains left in this bear rally. that 1050 on the S&P is still plausible... if anything, a big move awaits. And the only one I really like has seasonal history and charts showing that some buying action is picking up... in DUG. I would like it under 15. Of course, the charts show it has bounced off 15 a few timnes. In the end, I really have no idea where this market is going for the rest of 2009.