Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Well, OK, that didnt work...

OIH is blasting off on a 1/4 rate cut.

So, what happen, today at least...
OIH puts... nope, it went green (tho facing resistance@ 197). the rate cut made the dollars cheaper (good for oil), but this may be the last cut in awhile (bad for oil, but good for my oil put)

V is going sideways of all things... it seemed like it was blasting off at the outset @ exactly 215pm
V may100calls... nope, too far out
V may65puts... nope I dunno... its good thing actually, this was just insurance since i still have the bulk of my portfolio here

In other words... worst scenerio in terms of options. But i realize this week will be full of "stuff" for the economy to digest. And the charts do say that oil (as reflected on the commods)

This week will still be of interest. But i have no real transactions to make at this point... they are all set...

update @ 305pm EST: strong sell off happening NOW...
update @ 316pm EST: Tim is kinda gloating about IWM
update @ 318pm EST: a lot of so-called pro traders dont know what to do... the market is eating up everyone somehow. some that have fallen have found a bottom for the day and are now reversing... ha. funny...

Sold Some V.

V is up since my purchase >40% at the time of this post. Not bad. With the FED reporting in a few minutes. I had to be smart and hedge the situation. Otherwise, the rest remains in V for the time being... I really should set a stop. but i am in this thing for the long haul.

Sold some V to do the following
V x5 May100calls@.27
V x5 May65puts@.05()
OIH x5 May165put@.27 (oil has been correcting a few days now, and is possibly set to get whacked)

Well, thats all folks. 5 more minutes til the fireworks begin

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

MA killed... Will FSLR follow?

Looking at MA. Its more apparent to me that it has more growth than V. sigh.

FSLR is the big dog in solars. And they always seem to impress on earnings day. All the oil talk fuel FSLR and Ags.

Tomorrow the fireworks begin with the FED. ANYTHING... and I mean ANYTHING positive will fuel another rally. Today was proof. Consumer confidence, Foreclosures, at highs and yet the market remains stable, even green for some...

Well, i'm sitting on V. i wonder if i should hold it past the FED meeting. The Gross National stuff will point us in a direction, but that will change quickly come 2:15pm EST.

I was right AND wrong... on V

So, maybe now i should buy a put, considering the FED will open their big mouth in a few minutes - then you will see some volatility. The aftermarket red yesterday actually reversed to green today. Was it a fake out by the big brokers? Maybe. More likely it was their competitor MA that V is riding its coat tails on.

I do think that this week will say alot about how V (or for that matter any particular stock) will fare. Say the FED says tomorrow that everything stinks, cut rates with a note that they will pause on these quarterly cuts - if your ticker continues northward... good times ahead. If the stock keeps this trend in this horrible economy, then you can imagine what happens if a bull market was to return... which i dont see happening for a long time.

And There you go... my previous post was spot on.

The protective put deal would have worked out for an earnings disappointment like this. However, the report wasnt all gloom. I have no exit price at this point. The typical would be a trailing stop of 10% (i am looking long and looking to avoid being tax 35% vs. 15% on securities cashed <1 yr.) Anyway, prior to earnings the stop/exit would have been $67ish. If that's the case your protective put would have been 67.5 or even 65 (worst case scenerio).

being that i didnt have any free capital. i left it alone. what i could have done was sell a share and get my protective put aka insurance.

The aftermarket action of $5 in the red may narrow by the premarket tomorrow (or widen). The FED also will have a say on how much the economy stinks and a rate cut to boot. Anything can happen when the FED is involved.

Suffice it to say, a price drop for V could actually just bring in more buyers. I am still in the green on this and remain an investor NOT a trader for the time being.

Monday, April 28, 2008

V earnings await...

Well, i wish i had options on this thing weeks ago. Usually when you deal with options to make $, you would sell half or even all your calls today and buy puts to protect your actual stock. This stock has a ways to go on the upside.

Mind you, there is trouble ahead in the economy. But V seems more resistant to those problems than retail, tech, banks. With rising oil prices, Ags (tho some are taking a pounding today) and maybe Solar may be the only other choice.

Friday, April 25, 2008


So, *YAWN*, it appears a number of states are in a recession... Hello? Old news. blah, blah, blah.

Anyway, V reports on Monday after the bell. itʻs had a nice run. and considering that itʻs main competitor MA, is having a crazy run over the last 2 years (even during a recession mind you), things do bode well for V. We will see how their earnings stack up against the rest. And this provides a baseline for future growth. i am so tempted to throw some calls at this thing by selling actual stock. I havent quite decided.

For now my semi-comparison is found in MA, not all roses, but check out the movement on earnings...

Well this is V thus far... keep it in your brain prior to earnings April 28 and watch the fun happen.

Friday, April 18, 2008


GOOG Apr500call worth $55 yesterday... i looked at it and said Nah... wont happen. Today same call option worth almost $4300!. this market is messed up... extremes. i threw some $ at AAPL calls today. way out of the money for July. who knows, they may have a run like last year. $80ʻs to $120ʻs.(50% run)


GOOG kicked butt for sure. I for one didnt see an Apr500call within reach... boy was i wrong. and what a waste of $ being thrown at financials... no bad news surprised anyone.

the saving grace is that most of my $ is in V. And any positive news in general has been gathering buyers. once they release their first public earnings, then we may have a nice run - and option call opportunities. Otherwise, looks like iʻll be sitting on the side for some time til the smoke clears.

I am tempted to trade AAPL. but why... anyway, until it breaks 200. i refuse to buy. i will let the chart decide that for me. The company will be fine. my guess is they are benefiting from substantial discounts in flash RAM for their iPods/iPhones. but all i care about is the chart... no more emotional tie ins.

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Bought...yesterday & today

ETFC Apr3put@.15 & C Apr20put@.08... hey, i know they probably did hit bottom, but at this point after BSC, who knows.

MAR order thankfully didnt get in at my limit yesterday. but todays earnings sure points to where this stock is going... i will be watching closely. but itʻs heading downward, slowly. i may have to wait til it reports the next time around.

Iʻm trying to get ESLR Apr12.5call@.10. i refuse to pay any more. itʻs slightly up today, but the leader FSLR is not.

Iʻm bummed i didnt buy NOK apr30put. in any case, NOK is being are in denial regarding competition from iPhone(calling it a niche product) and in turn RIMM. the writing is on the wall. RIMM & AAPL will lead the smartphone charge... and no other companies will be able to compete effectively against the shift towards smartphones. sure, NOK has high end really cool stuff, but they are too pricey if u ask me. They may have market share, but who cares if your customer base doesnt grow by selling dumbphones instead of more profitable smartphones. Well, thatʻs my 2 cents, which i wish i placed in some of their puts.

btw, the word may soon get out on the iPod Touch being a trojan iPhone. It is cheaper and has more memory, but if it finds a WIFI to connect, starting June/July we will see VOIP apps.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Cheap near expiration option technique.

INTCʻs guidance will have saved tech for now.

a buddy of mine (with a Nice 3-series) shared this way of positioning at the end of option expiration because of the nearly 0 premium on time. it is that much more powerful when it exists in line with earnings report. so if u positioned for INTC, u could have bought an Apr22.5call and Apr19put for $19 & $17 respectively - a cheap strangle. if they hit in the money, hey congrats to u. Looking at the after-market it would have been a nice call. tomorrows pre-market is what will show how successful of a trade that would be.

i have a couple of old puts on JPM & WFC. if the same strategy was used hereʻs the breakdown
WFC: Apr30call@.05 Apr25put@.25 or.30 cheap... WORTH IT!
JPM: Apr45call@.22 Apr37.5put@.19 NOT WORTH IT, TOO FAR OUT...

So, in terms of value strangles OR just puts all report April 17(a= after/b=before bell): CAL(b), ETFC(a), MAR(b), ESLR(a)
April 18: C (b).... this may be another smoking gun...

unfortunately i have older options that has loss on time decay.
JPM: June22.5put (thereʻs still a chance... if more BSC hiding is out there...)
WFC Apr22.5put (itʻs been trading sideways...)

Monday, April 14, 2008

Tech... yawn...

So INTC is up next on earnings... problem is the sideways action of the market. the only ones making $ are the brokerages with the overtrading clients and the option sellers/writers.

Anyway, i am only posting this to make sure i still know my password. The real fun begins at the end of the year.

I've lost enough this year... I got a phat return because of losing last year (Same problem: setting stops). Just riding the pine with V.

AAPL reports next week. i think they will beat as expected and have guidance that doesn't surprise anyone. but if they fail to meet... look for a pounding... the warning signs on what Wall Street would do showed up a couple/few days ago when it lost $7+ on nonsense news.

So, life is easy now... one year since i married my honey... what else could be better. $ is worthless when you have no one to share it with...

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Itʻs fun NOT trading...

Yup, itʻs fun, why? because i dont have to worry about losing whatʻs left of my portfolio everyday. Itʻs kinda like the old days when i bought my first stock in 1997. wish i bought more at that time (AAPL), but someone convinced me to buy govʻt bonds.

this is kinda funny... wish i saw it earlier. unfortunate for BSC holders - wish i bought puts, i had in WFC instead... oh well...

anyway, i have just a few puts, some bought some time ago (where i forgot to set a stop) & a couple cheap puts ($20 and under) ... and the rest in V. itʻll be interesting to see how the Leaders will act during earnings... small rallys here and there...

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

RIMM... and some stuff...

I did a weak stranggle on earnings today... weak meaning kinda far out... the after hours look just o.k. so maybe i just threw some $ away. it was a far cry from a $10+ after hours spike. i already put in a sell order on my lone RIMM call...

the market otherwise should be heading back down... thus, my puts are still in play... friday has a huge jobs report... could be a nasty day for those thinking we hit bottom. V is doing fine... and i happily will be bored with it.

Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Tourism... They will be next to fall...

It must be a misprint on HOT aka Starwood Hotel, inc
Aug25put @.20? Considering that the recession will take a whack out of the visitor industry.

This week has a bunch of earnings... RIMM, MON, MOS...

That's all for now... i am just holding onto my V. If it does anything near MA, then it will be the wisest and least tiresome trade i have made all year... or for the last 2 years to be exact.