Friday, August 31, 2007

no way itʻll happen

MSFT buying RIMM? Is RIMM nuts? Donʻt they realize itʻs just them versus AAPL in smartphones? I know Nokia has their rip-off. Prada phone is too snobby. I digress, i think this is one of those things where someone is basically stirring action in RIMM. MSFT would absolutely make RIMM a shell of itself. MSFT is ONLY good at Windows lincensing and maybe Office software.

On the bright side
RIMM: is up nice:
.RULAC Jan113.37call is up... whew. for now. (risked $1020)
my hope is a run-up (a 2 wks prior to earnings Sep27, with a blowout session)
plan is to keep the stop limit loose for now until day b4 earnings.

PALM:
jan10put yawn... patience... (risk $200+10)

DELL:
DLQUE Sept25put wasnʻt a good idea. not enuf action to move like that.(risk $60+10)
DLQMX Jan22.5 still quite possible. (risk $100+10)

got a tip from a friend: JRJC a chinese online finance.
china is hot. (not as much as spring ʻ06)

i must finish my Taxes.

Thursday, August 30, 2007

small risk... great reward...

SHORTS/PUTS
1) DELL
i hav my jan22.5put and added DLQUE sept25put i underbidded and actually got in, didnʻt want that really. Mr. Dell sure did a good job in spinning/buying time with WallSt, saying all the right things, slightly dodging SEC. but i still think they stink and u got people suing them. bottom line, WallSt doesnʻt expect much from them anymore. and maybe iʻve missed the boat playing sept. i went off on reports of marketshare going down versus every other PC makers. iʻll hold the Jan contracts, but will look to sell Sept by next week if it trends higher.


2)PALM... Jan10put...yawn... but iʻm still thinkin theyr going down. patience necessary here. even Nokia has an iPhone rip-off. so addʻem up RIMM/AAPL/NOK, not to mention Samsung all smashing PALM in smartphones. with Palmʻs delays in delivering itʻs new OS, and uʻv got a winner (hopefully).

housing shorts: LEN/DHI... too expensive to get in? for me yes... u cud consider buying on any good housing news... i donʻt hav anything in them anymore...

LONGS:
RIMM on the other hand ran outta steam, it wantd to break! i got Jan113.5call. anyway, the bleeding reversed nonetheless. i got that Sept earnings date circled with some protection going into January. iʻd add OCTcalls a couple days prior to earnings. reward far outweighs risk...

AAPL. i remain disciplined to wait for Dec at the earliest and Jan MacWorld to jump back in. weʻll see wut they show on Sept 5... i wont budge...

VMW. it still depresses me that i sold so quickly. tho the calls options are there. it mite turn into another GOOG, RIMM in people bidding that thing up... they will face competition with MSFT joining the scene, but I.T guys love VMware... best of breed is what they call this company.

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Getting Spanked



RIMM calls... wasnʻt a good idea.
- it just split... so the hypes gone
- it was overbought
- it doesnʻt report til september
- credit woes (this factor seems to be keepin it and everything else down)

...so was this a bad trade?
- not if it comes back...
- not if FED helps again...
- not if earnings blowout again...

...past experience...
- iʻd sell at this point, kinda no-mans land
- then iʻd suffer watching a huge comeback
- OR iʻd watch this trade dwindle to zero...

iʻll be icing my okole for now...

Monday, August 27, 2007

housing woes

housing continues to drag the market down. my positions in RIMM & PALM are noneventful tho i must say iʻm losing $ as usual. just not as fast.

DELL reports... i canʻt stand their founder. Apple users like myself remember what he said about Apple closing shop and giving money back to itʻs investors. To be stuck with a windows only world... the thot of it.... Karma (which i donʻt believe in) works in his case. Dell isnʻt going anywhere. after all, if people need cheap PCs because theyr surfing for an alternative to foreclosing their home. then DELL fits the bill

Friday, August 24, 2007

argh...

itʻs frustrating indeed. losing money seems to be my pastime/presentime... anyway, most of my $ is on the sideline...

here are a couple of blows...tho if tech comes back could reward me...
-RIMM janʻ08@113call. iʻm down... $50/contract... but if earnings/news of further share gain then $$$
-PALM janʻ08@10put. breakeven
>>>> if RIMM/AAPL phones sell... someones losing... maybe i should short MOT also

my favorite stock AAPL is coming back... i really donʻt know why i sold on panic... those moments are buying flags... you canʻt bet against AAPL in the longterm. tho if recession did hit. they would be heavily affected due to itʻs tight consumer following.

good news on housing today....
some suggestions from some include energy... iʻm not sold on it...
others suggest retail... well my retail play would be AAPL...

weʻll see how the rest of the day develops...

Thursday, August 23, 2007

what goes up must come down... wait... or is it... argh...

well, i forgot to post yesterday... 
so what does the dummy (me) do?
he buys RIMM calls113 jan'08
and sticks to his guns on Palm puts10 jan'08...
well let's jus say i'm getting bombed on both ends. illogical!!!

now for the faux trades...
as for AAPL/SNCR/VMW... i would wait, tempting yes. VMW is strong tho...
PALM/LEN/DHI... out of the 3 i'd buy LEN puts here...
Bernake or however u spell his name put a band-aide on leg with gangrene.

so... what to do... hang on tight to RIMM... i stink anyway right?
i can't panic here...
as for PALM it's up on news of selling it's "BRICK" treo to Canada's Telus.
Canada btw, got the worse data plans in the world.  Africa's cheaper.
I'd pick RIMM over PALM any day.  iPhone will kill PALM, eventually
And with friends/enemies like Cramer,
He loves RIMM/AAPL/AMZN/GOOG, he'll manipulate things for us

that's it for today... while i see red in my accounts...

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

the first post...

Is this blog of any use to anyone but myself? i guess iʻll find out. Readers of this blog will find out that I am by far not a very good trader, thus the name, "stucktrader". I am pretty good, however in pointing out certain companies or trends to invest in where such ideas were (and are) winners. I"m one who loves to follow tech...but i have my biases. My portfolio at one point sat a solid 5 figures... (beans to most)... iʻve squandered most of it... iʻm too embarrassed to share that with you.

here are some winners that i strongly believed in... some of which i did buy...
AAPL (bought in 1997)
NINTENDO (once i saw the interaction i was sold... pink sheet, so i didnt buy... dumb...
Shorting or buying LEAP puts in anything having to do with housing/real estate (May 2006)

Unfortunately, iʻve shy away from most of them (those are just 3 examples) ... having suffered from emotional trading... panic sells... failing to set proper exits... man... notice if i had followed the last strategy in May...

hereʻs a list of failures:
failing to understand how the FED can cause the market to fall (May 2006)
- failed to sell my 50%+ portfolio position in TIE... of which i was up 125% and held til i was down to a 50% loss.
- understanding how shorting a company had better returns than going long on itʻs competition
(AMD puts versus INTC calls)

But i digress:
My intention is to test strategies... (faux trade) and eventually get back in January with real $.
My watchlist has now been limited for the purpose of focusing more on technicals... which iʻm horrible at... and to see how the behavior of traders affect the stocks i know most about...and it serves to avoid information overload.... i married now...

So hereʻs my watchlist... my friends who trade know them quite well...
longs/calls
AAPL: iʻve followed them since ʻ 95... innovation central (panic sell again)
SNCR: they have no real competitor, yet
VMW: i got in and got out (panic) but i see big things
RIMM: they just keep growing... europe is next...
shorts:
PALM: they are done... like we didnʻt know it since iPhone...
LEN: doesnʻt get the attention CFC does... but follows suit
DHI: CEO says they ainʻt selling houses... enuf said.

Anyway, those who read this must know that i am not at all giving any advice, youʻre responsible for your loss... (notice how optimistic i am). My anemic trading brain is for you to laugh at...