Monday, March 30, 2009

FAZ re-entry... considerations... another co-worker

Well, i got back in FAZ... it it too early, i dont know, i do know i missed the <20 entry that one of my co-workers got in... Anyway got in at $24.

I am following the FLY/TIM as they have served a great gauges.
Tim is cautious at this point, spotting a few shorts while picking longs bouncing off lows whereas
FLY now has re-entered the market this past thursday/friday after being in cash for some time.

Apparently there are a bunch of them investing now. This one dude bought 1K blocks of FAZ & SRS. Hmm is he looking at the Fly? Anyway, that is a lot for him to jump plunk down like that. I learned he was a victim of the dot com bubble. And his jumping in like this shows he has a lot of guts. I hope he has an exit plan.

The other co-worker is has a more diverse portfolio, and he is still hanging on to some FAS. I don't think that is actually a good idea, though i appreciate his willingness to balance. I would rather go with alternative energy than financial on a long. Or even better go GLD/gold.

Sunday, March 29, 2009

GM deal... just to bring in the bulls... And Much more stuff

Well, Obama is doing his best to keep this rally going. GM CEO forced out. I am sure he has a few more tricks to manipulate the market. But facts are facts.

I am looking at possibly entering FAZ, SRS, FXP... or do MORE puts on FAS.

The thing is we need these pull backs even in bear rallies. And hey, these bulls at the same time are thinking they want to cut their loses (from last year).

The start of this week is telling but i think the end of the week really points if we again go <7K or eventually get to 10K with a final bubble.

My co-worker is doing an admirable job of starting out with a modest $2K account. He is profiting as a newbie. Congrats to him. He has learned to leverage his portfolio to cover himself if the market moves in either direction. His buys like WMT, FAZ, and now consideration in oil (with summer approaching) are in the play books of many traders. But it is funny that he asks me questions that i dont necessarily know the answer to, maybe that is why he is doing so much better than how i did when i started. He is already about 20 to 25% just in a couple months!!! Awesome...

At the same time he is not trading options. So, that might be all there is to it. My way of using options has basically failed for the most part, but i have found success of late WITH options. But i am still wary of them... So, i have strongly recommended my co-worker to stick to regular securities for now. til this day i regret selling my AAPL stocks in 2007 and moving to options. Of course, if someone taught me options during the AAPL run of 2004 - 2006 (less volatile), i would have been considering retirement in a few years. Alas, that is why we still enter this market, we dream of getting some $ and spending more time with the family & our "more important things".

I am much more of a realist... married and have other more important things in life. Sure the $$$$$ would be nice (especially to pay off our debts), but being happy and not waking up 3am has done wonders for my health and my wife.

AND the fact is... there are A LOT more opportunities ahead.

Current... FAS & NOC puts... TAN...
financials: FAZ, FAS, XLF, SKF,
China: FXP
Market: SPY, SDS
Energy: DUG, DIG, USO...

Thursday, March 26, 2009

S&P via move to 875? maybe even 1050?

Well looks like one of the dudes on ibankcoin has a good chart that proposes that S&P could get to around 875 (the last of the many lines of resistance)... and if it sticks we are totally having a HUGE bull run. He didnt say it, but that is what i see on the chart.

That is also shown on Tims chart as well. He cites the fall from 825 to 666. And now shows the overhead run of 825 to 1050 would take some time.

The point is it will always be tough to call the reversal on this trend, but the signs are there.
I may enter a few longs if we do get to 875 and bounce off of it rather than shoot right through.

I think my NOC may puts are probably done... i was letting it ride having sold half the position that was more than covered the principle costs... my only other short (july put) is on FAS. With everyone saying FAS could depreciate to zero, only makes the argument stronger. Gio cites FAZ could get to zero as well, i could only hope...

this thought btw, was brought to my attention a few weeks ago while i was banking coin on FAZ, this arrogant doctor had something smart to say about holding FAZ. I am like, hey, i am not stupid i learned you cant hold ANYTHING! The thing is successfully flipped to a FAZ put, but the dumb thing stopped out on a 66% profit when 2 DAYS LATER it was a 900% profit. So much for stops when things get volatile.

I patiently wait for 875 to get here... sooner than later would be nice for the bears (and bulls on the ride up).

Monday, March 23, 2009

What goes up...must come down... eventually

Well, the futures pre-market were blazing. if anything it would have been nice to entered some FAS pre-market. But alas, i was busy with my congested sinuses this past week and needed to really sleep in.

My TAN is up 10%. but my FAS July 4 put took a whack.

I am still mostly to cash. I learned a long time ago to be wary about holding things into the weekend or making any entry on Friday. You just never know what the FED/Prez will say.

But i must say that i am totally happy that the market was up. I am spying LONG calls on the ETF shorts. But i am in no rush to get in... anyway, nothing else more to say...

TAN stock
FAS puts
NOC puts (this prez doesnt mind the Defense sector)
VISN stock

yawn... i know, such a boring portfolio.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

FAZ revenge...

I didnt bother to wake up 330am Hawaii time, but wish i did... FAZ <25? talk about a day where the fade would have banked coin.

An April 25 call at the open = 100% gain... man...

But you know what? The bulls arent done yet... So, hang on tight for Fridays close. Clarity will come...

I personally hope FAZ dips back to 25... and jumps back up. But as with my trading history... it aint happening.

As for my lone significant position of FAS July 4 put. pretty much its sitting at a minor loss... waiting for a chance to get I.T.M. Believe me... it will...

Working on my taxes to pay for my trip to Germany... and some settlement money to pay off more debt. Hope to get black by years end... if not even huge on the green if my disciplined trading continues. I missed huge moves, but also avoided huge set backs. whew... will dip back into the market next week...

here's hoping the bulls are back tomorrow.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

FA DISBELIEF and PREDICTABLE at the same time...

Man i KNEW FAZ would crash one day, thus my FAZ 35 put (which got stopped out @1.1)... the thing is a whopping 4.69

Anyway, here's to FAZ getting to 20's and i will gobble them FAZ calls. I know one thing... No way am i selling my FAS puts. As quickly as this 'Financial rally?' has come... I do think it will end as dramatically. incredible.

FAZ will have to wait. Stopped out... the wrong way.

Well, if anything, what i should have done was place a trailing 10% stop on FAZ. I would have @ least had a small profit. But i am glad that i only committed to 1/2 a position at the time. So, losing a few bucks here is still ok.

FAS july 4 put is still far out enough to get back ITM. but the time decay might kill off the option.

Alright see i am busy this week but will have an eye on FAZ hitting the 52 wk low...

As for this possibly missed opportunity on FAS, well that is all it is a missed opportunity thus far. I am inclined to dip in if it breaks $6. otherwise, no rush here.

Friday, March 13, 2009


You know this rally aint continuing... SOLD FAS @5+. AND bought FAS july 4 puts@1.35. nice window for an option that can get in the money next week...

Anyway, i am not a huge fan of options, being that i am not as swift to grab profits. for example i held FAZ Mar 35 puts (originally bought @.60)... ended up missing the gap sell @2.0 on tuesday... it stopped out on wednesday @1.1 (still a profit)... only to find it 2.4 on thursday and today it peaked 3.3 (when i happen to be awake). as you see the following would have been plausible

TUES: sell FAZ on a stop >2
WED: re-buy WITH profit same option
THU: SELL or hold into Fridays last gasp.

And there you have it 800%+ gain. but nope, i end that specific trade 66% profit. options are fleeting...

ANYWAY, FAZ is calling again, and wouldnt you know it i happen to be awake this time and found it <39 (an obvious buy). BUT i flinch and let that slip... HOWEVER, may still get it at the closing bell...

i bought a few FAZ @40.+(1/2 position)

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

FAZ put stopped out

Well, the good news is my FAZ put stopped out... the bad news... my FAZ put stopped out. 66% gain is ok... but not when i had 200% (granted before i woke up)... Lesson learned. a far out option will bank huge coin on initial gaps, but even if it dips past the gap, it is unlikely that one will find a better return. i.e. set that stupid sell stop at both ends.

FAS is still barely up over 4.

Anyway, i think tomorrow we see some definite weakness, but the trend is still up. I think a big Friday awaits. And I dont dare hold over the weekend.

My hope is that FAZ gets <50 again... it bounced off of it today (51ish actually). I will get in eventually. I have no reason to rush

50% of my kid account is to cash... remember to respect the market AND pay off your debts.


Well, yesterday i bought FAS @3.57... it ran up to 4 and hit a wall... although we havent reached the close yet...

Also decided to hold my FAZ put one more day... The problem is i didnt wake up early enough to cash out a 333% versus 40% where it sits now. I dont know if the bulls have chickening out here... or at least banking their profits, which is what i should have done. ANOTHER LESSON with OPTIONS proftis dont stick around for long so... WAKE UP FOR THE OPEN!!!

Anyway, i set my sell stops this time around for the last hour. Another green day means an extended rally is ahead of us... if not, oh well... that is what stops are for...

Monday, March 9, 2009


So, we have the market down... AND FAZ down. I like the latter for obvious reasons. But things just keep getting more difficult to read.

You would think that Tuesday will bring a rally, but really who knows.

I actually did expect the market to head down today (Monday), to shake out any more indecisive traders. But i also thought the Bulls would make a better show.

My puts on FAZ has a small profit. Nothing to cheer about, hope we get a massive Rally so as to re-enter FAZ or another Bear ETF.

One more thing, Lakers obviously NEED Bynum, he still seems lost sometimes, but he has an edge on him...Ever since i saw him almost take out James, I thought that the toughness (if thats a word) And Odom looks like he will be gone at the end of the season, depending on whether he contributes in the Finals.

Spurs look really good as long as Parker and Duncan are healthy. I think they have this year and next...and that is it for this group.

Cavs lack inside presence.

Boston will be back in the Finals if KG is back no doubt. Maurberry should get his legs back, but he will have to learn to play D first...

Orlando, i dont think they are ready for the pressure. If they still had Jameer, I would put them ahead of the Cavs

So, the question is LA or Spurs vs. Boston... and maybe Cavs

My hyper-extended shoulder is killing me... It is a good thing that I have sick benefits. Injuries are lame... I have to get in better shape before I turn 40.

Ideas on ETF

Well, my guess for Monday is we actually open down hard... only to have a flood of bulls..

Possible ETFs to look at include XLV (health), TNA (3x small cap bull), UYM (materials), FAS (financials). Too many to list...

But remember the window on these trades may have to be a day trade... it would be hard to stay long anywhere except where Obama has openly backed things... alternative energy, health care, education...

I am surprised that the Defense/Military sector continues to hold up... If you just wiped out a weeks worth of operations, much of the U.S. deficit would be made up... Dont believe me? Look it up yourself... Democrats usually dont fund defense as well the Republicans. I dont like politics myself, just a general observation...

Anyway, this week the bulls are due for a charge... if i do find FAZ in the green... i have no choice but to wait patiently. No reason to chase anything... unless is breaks below 6000...

Friday, March 6, 2009

Whew... I Vented yesterday... I missed the build up to a rally by a day. And MY bigger picture.

FAZ... missed the sell by a day
Well, i was relieved to see the bulls back at Fridays close. I was out doing some stuff w/ this dude getting hitched. I was sidelined today, but Monday may present a huge opportunity. Especially as i have no position in FAZ... except for a tiny FAZ March put, being that even FAR OUT of the money is reachable as "violent" the market has been on the bull and bear sides. I cant complain as Gio reminded me... anytime someone gets in @39 and sells near 97 within 5 weeks... why complain. Sure, i SHOULD HAVE set my stops to allow FAZ to run >100 and yet keep a stop @95... but i digress.

All I know is the large picture going back to the 70s says low 6000 is just about the bottom... from the 1984/5 to 1994/5 had a move of 2000 to 4000. Remember 1995 was the dawn of the internet and the beginnings of the individual INTERNET investor and a flood of newbies that 'gamble' their way into the market has made the market slave to speculative trading...

The thing is a healthy pace would have placed the Dow @low 7000s, if you made a straight line from 1984 to 1994 and into 2009. So the big picture to ME is that we've been overbought UNTIL 2009 came around. We are at healthier levels versus MY big picture, but the economy really stinks... so, we are headed for the doldrums of the 1970s AND a bit of 1980s inflation to some degree at the same time... if we do collapse <6000, i wonder if we would be in a mode where wall street will have to reboot and maybe we get back to 1984 levels. I doubt it will be that bad, but who knows.

2009 will be a long year... As for Bernack-ity saying a this recession could end in '09, I dont 'buy' it. 2007 gave us a bunch of warning signs...2008 confirmed it... 2009 we are accepting it... the American and Global economy stinks and will for some time.

FAZ... i hate you...


Anyway, patience... patience...

I was thinking about it yesterday as i sold FAZ... for the most part FAZ follows this pattern of opening/gapping lower then running up...

Today was no different. so, far as this post is before the market closes.

As for my AAPL puts... looks like i shouldve left it in place. lame, i missed getting back 25% more of my loser position.

My guess for next week? Dunno...

If we somehow end the day green... then itll be all good for me and a bull set up for next week, but for now watching FAZ up another 14%... I HATE YOU FAZ.

Thursday, March 5, 2009

SOLD FAZ & AAPL puts... bought FAZ puts

Ok... sold FAZ 96+... but i SHOULD have set stops at <96 and >100... oh well a few bucks off... Not bad considering i got in at 39. Sold AAPL puts at a loss, being that AAPL is one of the few spotlights that the few bulls are clinging to... Believe me though, i may rebuy puts on AAPL at earnings...

Anyway, i do sense a BIG time rally... we may get nibblers to the table tomorrow... which i do hope, and i think another drop Monday.

After that I really do think the Dow will head back to 8000 level. At that point I will again look to reload on my FAZ.

Anyway, i have learned that patience is imperative... follow me or thehawaiitrader on twitter... i do not log on every day, but i do when i place my trades... and especially when i feel we are at a crossroads on the tape or near resistance or support on the Dow.

Pay your debts (and make money by saving it)... that is all i got to say, and everything will be bonus...