Friday, March 6, 2009

Whew... I Vented yesterday... I missed the build up to a rally by a day. And MY bigger picture.

FAZ... missed the sell by a day
Well, i was relieved to see the bulls back at Fridays close. I was out doing some stuff w/ this dude getting hitched. I was sidelined today, but Monday may present a huge opportunity. Especially as i have no position in FAZ... except for a tiny FAZ March put, being that even FAR OUT of the money is reachable as "violent" the market has been on the bull and bear sides. I cant complain as Gio reminded me... anytime someone gets in @39 and sells near 97 within 5 weeks... why complain. Sure, i SHOULD HAVE set my stops to allow FAZ to run >100 and yet keep a stop @95... but i digress.

All I know is the large picture going back to the 70s says low 6000 is just about the bottom... from the 1984/5 to 1994/5 had a move of 2000 to 4000. Remember 1995 was the dawn of the internet and the beginnings of the individual INTERNET investor and a flood of newbies that 'gamble' their way into the market has made the market slave to speculative trading...

The thing is a healthy pace would have placed the Dow @low 7000s, if you made a straight line from 1984 to 1994 and into 2009. So the big picture to ME is that we've been overbought UNTIL 2009 came around. We are at healthier levels versus MY big picture, but the economy really stinks... so, we are headed for the doldrums of the 1970s AND a bit of 1980s inflation to some degree at the same time... if we do collapse <6000, i wonder if we would be in a mode where wall street will have to reboot and maybe we get back to 1984 levels. I doubt it will be that bad, but who knows.

2009 will be a long year... As for Bernack-ity saying a this recession could end in '09, I dont 'buy' it. 2007 gave us a bunch of warning signs...2008 confirmed it... 2009 we are accepting it... the American and Global economy stinks and will for some time.