Friday, November 21, 2008

FAT BOUNCE COMING... I should go back to sleep.

We (in Hawaii) have to suffer getting up before Rosters if we want to be fully involved in the market. I cant believe i am waking up for this... am i nuts? It looks like my puts will be smacked today. The Pre-Market shows FXP down 17%. Good thing my FXI is not a 2x ETF. The point is that the VIX told me to get out yesterday, and i didnt do it. Unfortunately, i now will be seeing for myself that a Vix 80 is indeed a reliable gauge to exit short/put (and just MAYBE go long... but OUT of short/put for sure).

I am thinking about just going back to sleep. No sense suffering through a bad day. the thing is i woke up in case the market gapped down at the open, if so... there was no more playing around up or down... it would have signaled a rally. But as we all know the Market never cooperates.

As for my bloggers gauge:
TIM: chances of a strong rally are good
FLY: well he went Long on Wednesday
GIO: DO NOT short here
MAC: We are now overstretched(due for a bounce) and maybe have one more bad day
Stockbee: quotes someone, 'we may get the mother of all bounces'

its too bad i could only assimilate this after the market had already closed. but what a way to learn. one more day of a return might also mean missing a bad day the next day. Lesson learned again here at Stucktrader. As I ingrain into my brain VIX 80.

UPDATE: I am going to sleep 40 minutes after the open... I have no reason to stay up now that i set my sell/alert triggers. I didnt want to be stopped out on volatility if a solid trend is eventually found)


Gio said...

Hey stuck, nice work.

i woke up 450 to cover my EEV short. Whenever the market opens gapped up, its not really good for bulls. those tend to fade without volume. anyway, action at the close. remember, we need volume.

also, the Vix went down to 76 on that gap up :-( I was hoping for the Vix to go up to 85. Now I have to wait again.

Gio said...

Do you have a twitter account? u can follow my thought process there.

right now my current tweet is: Low low low volume today = tough to trade.