Well, the DOW closes down 200 last week. Under a somewhat important 12K level.
But as you know nothing goes straight down now does it. So this week I expect a strong bounce across the board. So am I bullish this week? Sure that is what the technicals say. HOWEVER, what I am really looking for is an entry to an ULTRASHORT, namely SDS.
The thing is I think the DOW will eventually head to *sarcastic gasp* below 11K by years end. So my thinking is an In the money SDS Dec55 or 60 call. Time and "catastrophic events" as Morgan Stanley puts it is very real... Unemployment numbers will not improve. There will be less vacationers out there to places like here (Hawaii: where the hotel occupancy has dropped).
SDS premiums are reasonable
Anyway, that is my main position I am looking at for the year. So, sure we get a bounce here and there. But it is when the floor that drops from under us that I am waiting for. (This is what Tim waits for, but it seems he waits for it like every other day)...
Oil/Energy/Ag will fill in the rest of the gaps for me. I still have HK & DBA long calls. I have 2 FXI puts that I bought ages ago, but it expires in January 2009.
Until the new president comes in, I think the economy numbers will stink up Wall Street and the reality of the recession will go full bore.