Thursday, January 24, 2008

Risk Management... Reassess

With another possible rate cut ahead of us, I got out of BSC put. I was surprised i still had something to close out at a minor loss. My SYMC obviously didnʻt work, i didnʻt know they had an international side to their biz. itʻs a wash, but any Tech news can bring this thing down enough for a smaller loss.

Iʻm left with the following in play:
portfolio A
IWM mar 63 put (time on my side)
FXI jan 50 put (far out, to be sure, but itʻs early in the bear market)
WB feb25 put (no sense selling now)
XRX feb 12 put (earnings await)
KLA feb 37.5 put (earnings await)
The key stock is MSFT earnings. i think theyʻll meet, but have flat to conservative guidance, Halo sales bailed them out.

all losses for me now, but enough time to work something out
portfolio B
AMD feb 5 put
JPM mar 32.5 put
WFC apr 22.5 put (i had 100% gain, but anyway...)
DECK mar 65 (reaching... had a chance to cash if not for the FED)

Otherwise, iʻm mostly left to cash, iʻm unsure of adding CAT. The broad markets are green, but earnings will be key going forward. The FED will cut again with much volatility ahead.

Bear markets are said to AVERAGE 18 months... enough said, we have 6 to 18 months or so, with many thinking beyond 18 months considering how bad the banks/creditors jammed up the market. btw, AAPL is dirt cheap... but i wonʻt buy til Apr earnings at the earliest


Gio said...

Dude, you're loaded with puts. Looks like you're swinging for the homerun: earnings + financials.

If 11,600 doesn't hold.... market falls hard. But that's a very strong support. I need Dow to move up another 200-300 points before shortin hard.

I shorted some stocks today, but only 1/3 position... like DECK, and TNH. I'm quite afraid to short these two stocks right now, so I only entered 1/3.

Gio said...

Short now!! I shorted more stocks... JASO & DRYS. I was thinking about buying some SKF since it's oversold. Hmmmmmmm... maybe tomorrow. Market took all day to hit +100 points, but then fell really fast. Short signal! Weeee.