Sunday, January 13, 2008

More Eco Monday... and AAPL again.

I have had questions posed as to how to trade AAPL prior to MacWorld.
Historically, AAPL has posted a gain since the iPod/iTunes combo came on the scene for each MacWorld. Typically the stock falls just prior to MacWorldʻs keynote address... where Mr. Jobs often refers to "incredible" sales of ".....". This year all eyes will be on how many iPhones were sold. The goal was 10 million by the end of 2008. If we get >5 mil we should see a pop.

Also related is the iTunes/Apple TV hub... if the subscription service is indeed for real. we may be seeing both Blockbuster and Netflixʻs last days.. so shorting those stocks (i prefer NFLX, since itʻs off itʻs lows) would be another way to position your portfolio around this event.

Plan: buy AAPL calls at the end of Mondayʻs trading day... hope that INTC reports strong sales and adequate guidance. and hope the oversold tech builds a bullish background around MacWorld... and buy NFLX puts...especially since they are dirt cheap...

3 comments:

mytone said...

AAPL gains may be minimal this week due to possible week financial reporting. Be careful, watch out for quick profit taking reversal in anticipation of AAPL reporting date.

Eric said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gio said...

Quick profit taking? LoL. AAPL is up nearly $6 today buddy. NEver short AppL when the Nasdaq is oversold and you have INTC reporting ON THE SAME WEEK.

Yo stuck, I posted this in my site, but I'll do it here too:
"
Well well well, we had a bounce on the Nasdaq, just as planned. 1.63%. Stay tuned, because I think it goes up another 1.5%. When it goes up at least 1% more from here, I'll be shorting more, and I think all my put-limits will be filled. I really don't have time for this up and down 100 point days on the Dow, so, I just set the limits and cruise.

RIMM following my script to the tee! Up on AAPL buzz. I'm not in a rush here, since $102 is my entry, and I'm pretty sure it will get there. Therefore, I have a buy-limit set up. ..

INTC following too, up $1 today, thanks to IBM, which is flushing the shorts out. I'm up like 50% already.

As for gold...Tomorrow CPI data and PPI data will wipe out gold stocks in the short term. I will wait for that to happen. Just look at GDX, overpriced, and will drop a $1 tomorrow, and another $1 by Wednesday.

I shorted DECK today. Talk about a dead cat bounce. The PuTs are expensive.

AAPL had a good day today, bounce right off the 20MA! Hope you got in."