Monday, January 28, 2008

Theory Realized

A few posts ago, my confidence in BDK was absolute versus AXP & HAL. My gut was right. It opened down hard. the FED thing... *sigh* again gets in the way. so, my portfolios are in a holding patter

once the FED gets out of the way this wednesday, the bears will indeed control the market. If he does something like a rate cut >.50 (even >.25), well... what does it say to EVERYONE who owes money. The emergency cut last week hasnt gone to work yet.
either way, this market is heading down no matter what he does (hopefully he says something that implies just that). the housing numbers were bad... and yet the marketʻs rate cut hopes keep the market in the green.

We have some huge earnings reports this week... i will wait for the FED to open their mouth before obtain more positions, a short vacation...

Hotel stocks are rallying... HET, HOT, LVS, MAR. recession will definitely do them in, they will be the next headliner (media is already late in reporting this stuff) now that housing is old news. Not good for vacation spots like Hawaii


Gio said...

WYNN right smack dab on my sell short signal! 113 is a perfect stop.

I bought a lot of long term puts today. I also bought VMW puts for fun. When the market was up 130 points, I just had to fill in my orders as fast as I could. My post was right on the money... Dow retraced after it was up 140.

Rate cut is already priced in. .25will NOT rally. Why? Because Bernanke will be gone for a few months. He needs a surprise .5 cut. Otherwise, investors will be left with a huge unknown.

Gio said...

You still holding FXP?

Gio said...

Yikes! BDK made it all the way back to the green. I hate it when that happens.

stucktrader said...

agreed gio... i think he will give .5% and we wait for March FOMC. perfect storm... many more earnings ahead til then.

i wouldnʻt touch GOOG(your blog). i canʻt afford them anyway.

i have a long-term put on FXI instead of straight up FXPs

i keep forgetting to add hotels to my watchlist

stucktrader said...

i keep forgetting to add WYNN to my watchlist