Thursday, July 24, 2008

Averting Disaster Never Ends

OK, so yesterday i tried to set up LONG on AAPL, and bought puts on USO. My timing was bad. However, waking up 3 a.m. in this case was a great idea. should have set a tight stop on AAPL, but with my past history of plugging in wrong data i woke up, saw my AAPL call -5% and sold it -10%. I escaped USO bouncing upward with a minute $30 profit.

Props to Chart Swinger, his technical analysis tipped me towards getting out of USO. My gut feeling was the same but i had no logic behind it. AAPL call exit was strictly on my 10% stop

Had i been patient to open strong positions with HOT puts i would have more than doubled my entire portfolio.
Obviously didnt happen, yet i re-entered with a strong bear/put position on MAR & HOT with the hopes that WYNN would fall afterhours (which it did somewhat). The key was for WYNN to show that the U.S. economy stinks... No one needs to be a genius to see that.

Of course, because of this position i sacrificed a position in WDC puts which will hit big tomorrow, but will have an effect on the market as whole anyway, so i still benefit

My worry is that some may view HOT/MAR as bouncing off a temporary bottom (both are still above their 52 week lows last week) or view the fall in oil as precipitating a floor for all securities affected. The fact that $oil/barrel jumped back to >$126 ensures a short window on bear handling the hotel/visitor industry. The credit crisis is being manipulated by the govt. So, oil is an essential component to whack back at the hotel sector.

We shall see if my strong position was a disastrous one. I have no interest in looking at any other securities at this time... Just protecting what is left... I am disappointed that i nailed the fundamentals, but my execution failed me once more.

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